公告称，这些产品中非钢铁和铝的部分，将适用特朗普总统对特定国家商品所征收的关税税率。扩大的 关税清单将于8月18日正式生效。 当地时间6月3日，美国白宫发表声明称，美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25%提高至50%。该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。 美国商务部在当天晚间发布的《联邦公报》公告中表示，工业与安全局已将407个产品编码加入《美国 协调关税表》，这些产品将因所含钢铁和铝成分而被加征额外关税。 ...

日本政府近期公布一系列经济数据，上市企业近来也密集披露今年第二季度财报，共同印证了一个结 果：特朗普汽车关税和"对等关税"政策重创日本汽车产业，掣肘日本经济复苏。 财务省公布的贸易统计数据显示，4月至6月，受特朗普关税政策影响，日本对美出口连续3个月同比下 降，且降幅现扩大之势。由于美国汽车关税自4月起由2.5%大幅提升至27.5%，日本对美汽车出口额锐 减，6月日本对美汽车出口额同比下降26.7%。 《日本经济新闻》援引财务省数据报道说，6月日本国内对美汽车出口降幅最大的是九州地区，出口量 同比减少67.8%，出口额同比减少76.3%。报道指出，汽车产业是日本经济的核心产业，辐射范围广 泛，出口大降将波及到零部件相关产业，对区域经济造成打击。 此间媒体和专家评论说，汽车及汽车零部件出口约占日本对美出口总额的三分之一，美国对汽车类产品 加征25%关税对日本出口影响巨大。为了对冲关税政策影响，日本汽车制造商被迫采取降价策略，这势 必挤压厂商的盈利空间。 日本汽车制造商中马自达和斯巴鲁在美国市场的销售对出口依赖度最高，受汽车关税的冲击最为严重。 马自达此前发表财报说，今年第二季度公司虽然在日本国内市场销量增长，但 ...

公告称，这些产品中非钢铁和铝的部分，将适用特朗普总统对特定国家商品所征收的关税税率。扩大的 关税清单将于8月18日正式生效。 "上述关税政策针对全球的钢铁和铝产品，扩大的征税范围主要包括以下两类产品：一是含有钢铁和铝 的中间产品和半成品，如钢坯、板坯等。二是由钢铁和铝制成的金属结构件、容器、紧固件等。值得注 意的是，上述关税政策与'对等关税'不叠加，之前中美贸易谈判达成的协议也不适用于钢铁和铝产 品。"东海期货黑色金属首席研究员刘慧峰说。 当地时间8月15日，美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收50%关税的范围，将数百种衍生产品 纳入加征关税清单。 美国商务部在当天晚间发布的《联邦公报》公告中表示，工业与安全局已将407个产品编码加入《美国 协调关税表》，这些产品将因所含钢铁和铝成分而被加征额外关税。 据悉，2024年我国钢材出口量为1.11亿吨，其中对美国直接出口47万吨，仅占我国钢材出口总量的 0.4%。今年上半年，我国钢材出口量达到创纪录的5814.7万吨，对美国直接出口仅23.6万吨。 "上述关税政策对我国钢材直接出口的影响微乎其微。"胡万斌表示，间接出口会受到一定影响，因为我 国钢材通过第三国转 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to include hundreds of derivative products, with a 50% tariff set to take effect on August 18, 2023 [1] Group 1: Tariff Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the addition of 407 product codes to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule, which will incur extra tariffs due to their steel and aluminum content [1] - The expanded tariff list primarily includes intermediate and semi-finished products containing steel and aluminum, as well as metal structures, containers, and fasteners made from these materials [1] Group 2: Impact on China’s Steel Exports - In 2024, China's steel export volume is projected to be 111 million tons, with only 470,000 tons directly exported to the U.S., accounting for 0.4% of total exports [2] - The direct impact of the tariff policy on China's steel exports is minimal, but indirect exports may be affected due to a high proportion of steel being routed through third countries [2] - China's steel exports to Vietnam, a significant intermediary for U.S. exports, are expected to decline, with an estimated impact on transshipment trade of around 3 million tons annually [2] Group 3: Broader Industry Implications - The tariff policy may lead to a decrease in China's steel exports, negatively affecting related products such as steel billets and plates [3] - Industries heavily reliant on steel, such as construction machinery, home appliances, and new energy vehicles, may experience noticeable export impacts due to their high demand for steel, particularly plates [3] - An estimated 14.5 million tons of steel may be indirectly exported to the U.S. through steel derivatives in 2024 [3] Group 4: Market Reactions - The futures market may react negatively to the tariff policy, with expectations of weakened demand and increased inventory levels in the steel market [4] - The price difference between rebar and wire rod has widened significantly, indicating potential market volatility due to the tariff impacts [4] - Despite the tariff policy, domestic macroeconomic and industrial policies are expected to have a more significant influence on the futures market, with a continued upward trend anticipated in the steel and coal industries [4]

Market Overview - US stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a new historical high, closing at 44,946.12 points, up 34.86 points or 0.08% [2] - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.40% to 21,622.98 points, while the S&P 500 Index decreased by 0.29% to 6,449.80 points [2] - Notable individual stock movements included Meta rising by 0.4%, Amazon slightly up by 0.02%, while Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla saw declines of 0.4%, 0.9%, and 1.5% respectively [2] Commodity Prices - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude oil down 1.81% at $62.80 per barrel and Brent crude oil down 1.48% at $65.85 per barrel [3] - Gold prices showed slight fluctuations, with COMEX gold futures for August delivery rising by 0.02% to $3,336.00 per ounce [4] Corporate Announcements - Huahong Semiconductor is planning to acquire the controlling stake in Shanghai Huahong Microelectronics to resolve industry competition issues, with stock suspension effective from August 18, 2025 [9] - China Shenhua announced plans to purchase multiple assets from the National Energy Group and Western Energy, with stock resuming trading on August 18, 2025 [10] - Upstream New Materials reported that its client TPI Composites filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, potentially impacting the company's performance, with accounts receivable of approximately $4.1292 million [11] - Dongfang Fortune reported a 37.27% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year, with total revenue reaching 6.856 billion yuan, up 38.65% [12] Investment Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted the importance of supply-side dynamics and external demand in profit generation, suggesting focus on sectors like rare earths, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals for investment opportunities [13] - China Galaxy Securities noted positive market signals with increased trading volume and investor participation, indicating a shift towards financial assets [13] - Kaiyuan Securities observed a significant increase in market activity, suggesting a favorable environment for growth sectors amid high risk appetite [13]

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with external demand contributing significantly to this growth [1] - However, in the second quarter, GDP growth slowed to 5.2%, with external demand and consumption both declining [1] Trade Dynamics - China's exports to the US fell by 10.7% in the first half of the year, while overall exports increased by 5.9% [1][2] - The US also saw a significant drop in exports to China, with a 21.2% decrease in the first half [2][3] - Despite a reduction in tariffs announced in May, bilateral trade did not show significant improvement [2] Tariff Impact - Over half of the goods exported from China to the US experienced a decline in growth due to tariffs, with 53.5% of product categories underperforming [4] - The US has implemented high tariffs on various countries, affecting trade dynamics and potentially leading to a reduction in imports [8][11] Future Outlook - The IMF and WTO have adjusted their global trade growth forecasts downward, indicating potential negative impacts from tariff changes [6][8] - China's trade surplus may be affected by the US's narrowing trade deficit, which could limit China's export growth [10][12] Domestic Consumption - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting domestic demand to counteract external pressures, emphasizing the need to release internal consumption potential [12][13]

美联储将于北京时间8月21日凌晨2:00公布货币政策会议纪要。 杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月21日至23日举行，鲍威尔将于北京时间8月22日 22:00致辞。 美国芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比此前表示，上周的通胀数据喜忧参半，加上关税不确定性挥之不去，令 他在是否降息的问题上有所犹豫。 美东时间8月15日，古尔斯比在采访中表示，他仍希望在9月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议前，看到更 多有说服力的数据。今年，古尔斯比是FOMC的轮值票委。 他指出，上周公布的消费者价格指数（CPI）和生产者价格指数（PPI）报告让他对通胀前景"略感不安"，因为 服务价格"看起来不会是暂时性的"，而且"正在抬头"。 最新公布的数据显示，美国7月PPI环比上升0.9%，上一次达到0.9%还是在2022年的5月和6月；服务业通胀是 推动PPI上涨的主要因素，环比上涨了1.1%，创下2022年3月以来的最大涨幅。 另外，上周五公布的密歇根大学8月份的初步报告显示，美国消费者信心指数自4月以来首次下滑、从五个月 高点滑落，长短期通胀预期均上升，反映出人们对关税政策影响的持续担忧。 古尔斯比说道："我觉得我们至少还需要再来一份通胀报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's tariff policies, initially celebrated as a success, have led to significant stock market declines, undermining his claims of economic improvement [1][5][10] Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - Trump's tariff diplomacy has caused dissatisfaction among various countries, with tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% imposed by allies and other nations [3] - The ongoing negotiations with China are complicated by China's control over rare earth materials, making it difficult for Trump to achieve a decisive victory in tariff negotiations [3][9] - The recent stock market crash, including a 0.74% drop in the Dow Jones and a significant decline in the Nasdaq, is closely linked to Trump's tariff policies [5][7] Group 2: Economic Consequences - The tariffs have led to rising domestic prices and increased business costs in the U.S., contributing to weakened consumer and employment power [8] - Despite Trump's calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, the Fed has not complied, leading to increased pressure on the U.S. economy [8] - Job growth has fallen short of expectations, with only 70,000 new jobs added in July compared to the anticipated 100,000 [8] Group 3: Future Outlook - Trump is unlikely to abandon his tariff strategy, viewing it as essential for economic recovery and political leverage, especially in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [9][10] - The effectiveness of Trump's tariff policies remains uncertain, particularly in dealing with a powerful economy like China, which is prepared for ongoing economic competition [9][10] - The long-term success of Trump's tariff strategy will be influenced by the overall direction of the U.S. economy and global economic changes [10]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry maintains a strong operational trend due to macroeconomic sentiment and supply disruptions [1][2][3] - The U.S. and China have agreed to pause tariff increases for 90 days, which may positively impact trade relations [1] - Recent U.S. CPI data has increased expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, although PPI data suggests inflation may rise in the coming months [2][3] - The U.S. has expanded the range of steel and aluminum import tariffs, affecting hundreds of products [3] - Zambia's copper production has declined, raising concerns about meeting the government's annual production target of 1 million tons [5][19] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 3.62%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.92 percentage points [9] - Key stocks that performed well include Bowei Alloy (+39.60%) and Jintian Co. (+34.32%) [9] 2. Key Focus & Metal Prices & Inventory Changes 2.1 Industrial Metals - Copper prices on LME were $9,760/ton, down 0.08% week-on-week, while SHFE prices were ¥79,060/ton, up 0.73% [21][23] - Aluminum prices on LME were $2,603/ton, down 0.46%, and SHFE prices were ¥20,770/ton, up 0.41% [21][23] 2.2 Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices were $3,381.70/oz, down 2.21%, while SHFE gold prices were ¥775.80/g, down 1.52% [35][36] 2.3 Energy Metals - Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rose to ¥82,000/ton, up 14.69% week-on-week [40][41] 2.4 Strategic Metals - Prices for praseodymium oxide reached ¥568,100/kg, up 5.46% week-on-week [44] 3. Core View Updates and Key Stock Tracking - For industrial metals, companies like Zijin Mining and Western Mining are recommended due to supply constraints and strong price support [54][56] - In precious metals, companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold and Shandong Gold are favored due to ongoing U.S. tariff policies and debt issues [54] - Strategic metals like tungsten and antimony are expected to see valuation reconstruction opportunities, with recommendations for companies like Bowei Alloy [55]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, but the expectation for the number of rate cuts for the whole year has decreased from 3 to 2 [3][29][30]. - The overseas stock market generally rose this week, with small - cap stocks in the US and the Japanese stock market performing strongly. The US dollar weakened, the yield of 2Y US Treasury bonds declined while the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds increased. Gold and crude oil prices dropped [1][13][14][15]. - Trump's policies focused on tariffs and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation this week. The scope of steel and aluminum tariffs was expanded, and the negotiation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict made progress [5][33][35]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity**: Overseas equities generally rose this week. US stocks were boosted by the expectation of a rate cut in September, and small - cap stocks had larger gains. The Japanese stock market was strong due to the easing of the tariff situation and strong economic data. As of August 15, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rose 0.94%, 1.74%, and 0.81% respectively; the German DAX, London FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index rose 0.81%, 0.47%, 3.73%, and 0.49% respectively [13][16]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar fell slightly this week. The release of US CPI data in July and the statement of the US Treasury Secretary both contributed to the decline of the US dollar index. As of August 15, the US dollar index dropped 0.43%, and the euro, yen, and RMB rose 0.54%, 0.39%, and 0.02% against the US dollar respectively [14][16]. - **Interest Rates**: The yield of 2Y US Treasury bonds declined, and the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds increased. The probability of a rate cut in September increased, causing the 2Y yield to fall, while concerns about stagflation in the long - term led to an increase in the 10Y yield. As of August 15, the 2Y US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, and the 10Y yield increased by 6bp [14][16]. - **Commodities**: Gold and crude oil prices dropped this week. Gold fell due to Trump's statement on gold tariffs and the release of PPI data. Crude oil prices declined as the Russia - Ukraine situation became more optimistic. As of August 15, COMEX gold and silver fell 1.98% and 1.33% respectively, WTI crude oil fell 0.33%, and COMEX copper rose 0.56% [15][16]. 2. Overseas Policies and Key News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - The probability of a rate cut in September increased, but the expectation for the number of rate cuts for the whole year decreased from 3 to 2. The limited impact of tariffs on inflation in July CPI data increased the probability of a September rate cut, while the high - than - expected PPI data and the hawkish stance of some Fed officials reduced the annual rate - cut expectation [29][30]. - More hawkish Fed officials spoke this week, expressing different views on the timing and magnitude of rate cuts. As of August 16, the market expected a 92.1% probability of a 25bp rate cut in September, and expected 2 rate cuts this year [30]. - Attention should be paid to Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, which may be a key window for him to adjust the forward - looking guidance [31]. - Australia cut interest rates by 25bp this week, the third rate cut this year [32]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Tariffs**: Trump expanded the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, and said he would impose tariffs on semiconductors in the next two weeks. The US and China suspended the implementation of the 24% tariff for 90 days again [33][35][37]. - **Russia - Ukraine Negotiation**: Trump and Putin met in Alaska on August 15, and Trump will meet with Zelensky on August 18. If everything goes well, a tri - partite meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will be arranged [35][38]. - Trump's net satisfaction rate declined. As of August 15, his net satisfaction rate was - 6.0% [35]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.1 Overall Prosperity - As of August 15, the bet on a US economic recession in 2025 on the Polymarket website remained at 12%. The market expected 2.2 rate cuts in 2025, down from 2.3 a week ago [39]. - Bloomberg expected the US economy to grow by 1.55% in 2025 and the eurozone economy to grow by 1.1% in 2025, both higher than the previous week's forecasts [40]. - The Fed models raised their immediate forecasts for the US Q3 economic growth rate. The New York Fed Nowcast model raised the forecast to 2.06%, and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model raised it to 2.55% [42]. - The US economic activity cooled, while the German economic activity rebounded. As of the week of August 9, the US WEI index decreased by 0.09, and the German WAI index increased by 0.07 [47]. 3.2 Employment - The number of initial jobless claims decreased more than expected. As of the week of August 9, the number of initial jobless claims was 22.4 million, lower than the expected 22.8 million. The number of continued jobless claims decreased to 195.3 million as of the week of August 2 [49]. 3.3 Demand - US retail sales slightly declined, airport security checks continued to be better than the same period last year, and railway transportation volume increased year - on - year. The real estate market activity picked up, with the 30 - year mortgage rate falling and the mortgage application and refinancing activity indexes rising significantly [54]. 3.4 Production - The US production maintained a high level of prosperity, with the crude steel output and refinery capacity utilization rate higher than the same period last year [61]. 3.5 Shipping - International freight rates declined. The Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) and the container freight indexes of Chinese ports all decreased [64][66]. 3.6 Price - US retail gasoline prices slightly declined, and the inflation expectation in the swap market decreased slightly this week [68]. 3.7 Financial Conditions - The US financial pressure decreased this week, with the OFR US financial stress index and the credit spread declining [71]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders - Next week (August 18 - 22, 2025), key overseas events include Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, the release of the Fed's meeting minutes, US real - estate data, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine situation [76].