Core Viewpoint - The Thai Baht is experiencing its largest annual appreciation against the US dollar in eight years, with a 10% increase in 2025, outperforming other Southeast Asian currencies despite economic challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Contributing to Baht Strength - The appreciation of the Baht began in mid-2024, coinciding with government economic stimulus plans and traders selling off the US dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate cuts [2]. - A significant portion of the Baht's recent gains is attributed to a 60% increase in gold prices, driven by a weakening US labor market and seasonal peaks in Thailand's tourism industry [3]. - The Trump administration's import tariffs have unexpectedly boosted Thailand's economy by encouraging local manufacturing for exports to the US, as tariffs on Thai goods are lower than those on Chinese products [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications of a Strong Baht - A strong Baht makes Thai products more expensive in international markets, leading to the slowest export growth in over a year [5]. - The tourism sector is under pressure as the strong Baht diminishes Thailand's appeal as a low-cost vacation destination, with a downward revision of foreign tourist arrivals expected [6]. - While a stronger Baht can reduce inflation for imported goods, the overall impact on an economy heavily reliant on exports and tourism is negative [6]. Group 3: Government and Central Bank Responses - The Thai government is addressing concerns from export-oriented businesses regarding the Baht's appreciation, but political instability complicates fiscal policy direction [7]. - The Bank of Thailand has intervened in the foreign exchange market to manage excessive volatility and has proposed increasing the offshore income retention limit for businesses [8]. - Discussions are ongoing regarding measures to mitigate the impact of gold prices on the Baht, including potential taxation on physical gold transactions [8].

2026 年度中国期货市场投资报告 海外流动性风险尚未解除，新一轮量化宽松有望重启 宏观经济/资产配置 内容提要： 程 伟 宏观分析师 从业资格证：F3012252 投资咨询证：Z0012892 TEL：0516-83831160 E-MAIL：chengwei @neweraqh.com.cn 近期报告回顾： 美联储降息周期重启，全球 经济及大类资产展望（季 报）20250930 全球贸易摩擦及地缘局势 缓和背景下，大类资产配置 （半年报）20250630 国际环境复杂多变，超常规 政 策 依 然 可 期 （ 年 报 ） 20250101 投资有风险 理财请匹配 进入 2026 年，美国减税政策对经济的刺激作用将开始显现，关税政策对物价的影 响可能在下半年消退，美联储进一步降息的门槛明显升高，利率点阵图维持对年 内降息一次的预测；欧元区经济复苏乏力，通胀稳定在 2%的目标附近，欧洲央行 货币政策在进行 8 次降息后进入观察期；日本经济保持温和复苏，央行维持缓慢 加息的节奏，逐步实现利率政策正常化，可能引发海外日元套利资金回流，加剧 金融市场波动。 中央经济工作会议要求继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财 ...

2026年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack加入美联储鹰派阵营，明确表示未来几个月内没 有必要降息，并质疑11月通胀数据的准确性。这一立场进一步强化了美联储暂停降息周期的信号，为明 年货币政策路径增添更多不确定性。 据《华尔街日报》周日报道，Hammack在接受采访时表示，美联储至少在明年春季之前无需改变目前 3.5%-3.75%的基准利率区间。她此前曾反对近期的降息决定，更担心通胀居高不下而非劳动力市场疲 软。 市场对美联储2025年降息预期持续降温，交易员预计明年上半年降息概率较低，6月降息可能性约为 50%。 CPI数据准确性存疑 Hammack对当前通胀形势表达了更多担忧。她向《华尔街日报》表示，11月CPI 2.7%的同比增幅可能因 数据扭曲而低估了实际的价格涨幅。 虽然Hammack认为当前政策利率处于中性水平附近的合适位置，但她更倾向于采取略微更具限制性的 立场，以对通胀施加更大压力。 作为曾反对美联储过去几个月累计降息75个基点决定的官员，Hammack的担忧主要集中在通胀居高不 下，而非促使其他官员降息的潜在劳动力市场脆弱性。 Hammack的鹰派表态呼应了其他美联储官员 ...

欧元区11月综合PMI初值52.4, 仅略低于10月数据52.5，继续稳定在荣枯分水岭50以上, 基本符合预期。服务业与制造业分化, 服务业PMI初值为 53.1, 不仅高于前值53, 而且优于预期值52.8, 录得一年半以来最佳月度表现。欧元区11月综合PMI初值为52.4, 较10月份的52.5轻微回落。 欧元 区12月Sentix投资者信心指数-6.2,预期-7,前值-7.4。 11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上开0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。10月份，综合PMI产出指数49.7，比上月下降0.3 个百分点，为2023年以来首次降至荣枯线以下。 美国11月标普全球服务业PM1初值55，预期54.6，前值54.8。 美国11月标普全球综合PMI初值54.8，为连续第二个月上涨，预期54.6，前值54.6, 中美关税问题仍以延期的形式作为短期的解决方案,运价走势的 逻辑还是回归传统季节性和红海何时复航的问题上,目前现货价 格小幅下降。综上述,我们认为,关税问题已经呈现边际化效 应,目前核心还是现货运价的走向,主力合约已经出现季节性反 弹,建议轻仓参与或观望。 12月19日主力合 ...

数据来源：ICE，Wind资讯 2025年以来，美元总体走弱。上半年，美元汇率明显贬值，从年初的110附近下行至年中低点的96.98，此后持续低位震荡。四季度，随着关税局势略有缓 和，美元汇率有所回升，但仍在100点以下徘徊。与传统认识相比，2025年以来的美元走势有以下三点不同。 一是不符合关税加征国汇率应升值的认识。特朗普第一任期内六次对华加征关税，离岸人民币均在消息宣布后迅速贬值。但在此次特朗普宣布加征"对等关 税"后，美元对主要贸易伙伴货币汇率普遍贬值。相反，在美关税出现缓和迹象时，美元反而升值。 图1 美"对等关税"缓和反而引发美元升值 内容提要 2025年以来，美元总体走弱，有以下三方面原因。从政策面看，特朗普政府经济政策是本轮美元贬值的直接原因。从资金面看，外国投资结构变化导致美元 波动放大。从基本面看，美国经济增长有所放缓，未能对美元汇率形成支撑。未来，欧、日等经济体经济走弱、特朗普极端政策碰壁、美股市保持吸引力等 因素有望支持美元汇率，美元在短期内大幅走弱可能性不大，但汇率波动幅度或将变大。长期看，美元国际货币地位或将受到挑战。 一、2025年以来美元走势及值得关注的情况 二是不符合高息国汇 ...

铜周报：长单TC好于预期，铜价高位盘整 研究员： 王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022141 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 内外盘价格走势 4 第三章 铜基本面分析及周度数据跟踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析及操作策略 n 宏观面 11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，略好于市场预期，但失业率意外升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来新高，显示劳动力市场持续降温。11月核心CPI降到2.6%，其中一部分原因或 是由于美国政府关门导致的数据问题，市场对2026年降息两次的预期没有变。明年5月鲍威尔任期结束，美联储新任主席或在1月出结果，后续市场预期2026年美国货币政策 仍保持宽松。 n 铜矿 n 废铜 n 精铜 GALAXY FUTURES 2 中国冶炼厂与antogagastat敲定2026年铜精矿长单加工费benchmark为0美元/吨和0美分/磅，远好于最初-10到-15美元/吨的预期，在高升水和高硫酸价的情况下，国内外 冶炼厂减停产风险下降，原料供应问题仍是未来影响冶炼厂生产的关键因素。 12月19日SMM进口铜精矿指数（周）报-43.65美元 ...

在美国政府结束"停摆"后，通胀数据意外低于预期。 据央视新闻报道，美国劳工部12月18日发布的数据显示，今年11月美国消费者价格指数 （CPI）同比上涨2.7%，低于9月的3%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，11月核心消费者 价格指数同比上涨2.6%。 明年1月美联储降息的可能性仍然较低，但交易员已开始上调明年3月降息预期。芝商所美联储 观察工具显示，明年3月降息概率为60%，高于此前一天的约50%。 记者丨吴斌 编辑丨张星 题：首先，因为政府停摆，10月数据未采集，因此没有10月CPI数据，11月CPI只有同比数 据，没有环比数据。 其次，由于政府停摆11月14日才结束，数据收集工作滞后，部分价格调查、样本采集和行政数 据输入在时间上存在滞后或集中补报，一些服务类、政府相关支出和监管价格的更新可能被推 迟或以估算值替代。例如，10—11月居住CPI环比均值接近0%，而前几个月环比增速在0.2% —0.3%，出现明显的误差，表明在部分数据缺失的情况下，劳工部在技术处理上的问题令数 据存在失真。 尽管这份因政府停摆而推迟发布的报告显示物价压力有所缓和，但考虑到报告的编制存在问 题，经济学家持谨慎态度，这一积极 ...

Core Points - Nike reported a significant decline in net profit for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, with a net profit of $792 million, down 32% year-over-year [1] - The company's revenue showed modest growth, reaching $12.4 billion, an increase of 1% compared to the same period last year [1] - The stock price of Nike fell over 10% following the earnings report, reflecting market concerns [1] Financial Performance - Net profit for the quarter was $792 million, a decrease of 32% year-over-year [1] - Revenue for the quarter was $12.4 billion, representing a 1% increase from the previous fiscal year [1] - Earnings per share were $0.53, down from $0.78 in the same quarter last year [1] Market Impact - The decline in Nike's stock price affected other sports brands, with Puma and Adidas also experiencing stock price drops [1] - The company anticipates a $1.5 billion increase in costs due to U.S. government tariff policies throughout the fiscal year [1] - Nike expects slight declines in revenue and gross margin for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 [1] Strategic Initiatives - Nike's CEO, Elliott Hill, has restructured the management team and plans to launch specialized products around major sporting events, such as the 2026 World Cup [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article revolves around the recent meeting between Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and Chinese officials, marking the first high-level dialogue in eight years, which aims to restore cooperation and address economic concerns between Canada and China [1][3]. - The meeting is seen as a significant gesture from China, indicating a thaw in relations, despite Canada’s previous actions that led to strained diplomatic ties, including tariffs on Chinese products and accusations of election interference [3][5]. - Canada’s desire to improve relations with China is driven by the negative impact of Chinese countermeasures on Canadian exports, particularly in agriculture and energy, as well as pressure from the U.S. regarding tariffs [5][7]. Group 2 - U.S. President Trump expressed that he received an apology from Trudeau but remains firm on not resuming trade negotiations with Canada, particularly in light of a controversial anti-tariff advertisement published by Canada [1][5]. - The anti-tariff advertisement, which included edited remarks from former President Reagan opposing tariffs, has angered Trump, as it undermines his tariff policies and political stance [5][7]. - Trump’s insistence on a retraction from Canada regarding the advertisement highlights the political implications of trade policies and the importance of maintaining support among his voter base [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. beef industry initially thrived in the Chinese market, with exports reaching $1.6 billion in 2024, making China the third-largest buyer [1] - Following the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration in March 2025, U.S. beef became more expensive in Chinese supermarkets, leading consumers to switch to Brazilian beef [1][3] - The export volume of U.S. beef to China plummeted from 2,000 tons at the beginning of the year to just 54 tons by March 20, 2025, significantly impacting Midwestern farmers [3] Group 2 - In April 2025, the Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on all imports, which China countered with an additional 34% tariff, raising the total tariff on U.S. beef to 56% [5] - U.S. beef exports to China fell by 70% in April, with Australian grass-fed beef taking its place on supermarket shelves due to lower prices [5] - By May, the number of U.S. beef processing plants eligible for export to China had dwindled, resulting in exports of less than 1,000 tons for the month [5][7] Group 3 - By July 2025, U.S. beef exports to China had dropped to 1,110 tons, a 92% year-on-year decline, while Brazil and Argentina maintained stable beef supplies to China [7] - The overall loss for the U.S. beef industry in the first half of 2025 exceeded $800 million, with the agricultural export deficit widening instead of narrowing as intended [7][9] - The failure to renew beef registration became a significant point of trade friction, leading to a collapse in exports and protests from farmers [9] Group 4 - By August 2025, U.S. beef exports to China had dwindled to a few million dollars per month, with many processing plants facing financial difficulties and some going bankrupt [11] - Although a temporary agreement in November 2025 led to a slight recovery in exports, the overall export value to China was projected to drop by 53% to $484 million in 2025 [11] - The trade conflict highlighted the need for U.S. producers to adapt to a more diversified procurement strategy from China, as farmers faced tightening conditions [11]