过往关税，简要来看：特朗普第一个任期，发起 301 调查加征关税，税率分为 4 个清单，清单 1、清单 2 均 征收 25%关税（两个合计约 500 亿美元，参考 2017 美国从中国进口值），分别在 2018 年 7 月和 8 月落地、清 单 3 同样征收 25%关税（约 2000 亿美元），2019 年 5 月税率提升至 25%，清单 4（约 3000 亿美元）中的一部 分清单 4A 征收 7.5%税率，2020 年 2 月落地，清单 4B 免税。受关税影响，税率较高的中国商品对美出口降幅 较大，2024 年美国对中国加权关税税率约 10%，略低于根据 2017 年美国进口额计算的加权税率 12%（高税率 进口额下降更多）。 证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 关税大降，五点解读 5 月 12 日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，90 天内，中美之间关税税率大幅下降，怎么看？ 第一，关税降幅超预期。5 月 14 日，中国对美国进口商品关税税率从 125%下降至 10%，美国对中国进口 商品关税税率从 145%大幅下降至 30% ...

眼见的网友应该注意到了，美国的关税是30%，比咱们多了20%，这部分是芬太尼税，是特朗普以中国 芬太尼管控不力，导致毒品流入美国为借口，在今年2月、3月加的税，就是这个20%。 中国当时针对芬太尼税也进行了报复，对美国进口的农产品、能源加税10-15%，把美国一批军工企业 拉入黑名单，另外还启动了稀土出口管制。 这次谈判美国那边说芬太尼税不取消，另谈，那中国这边针对芬太尼的报复措施也不谈，继续执行。我 列个表格你们看了就明了。 今天盘后出了新闻，中美在瑞士日内瓦的谈判结果出来了，具体内容我就不复制粘贴了，很多网站都 有。 而且正式的通告有些绕，我猜八九成的网友就算给他看也看不懂，因为我看底下的留言问的最多的就是 减完以后中美关税各是多少？ 在这里我要先说一个前提，就是特朗普上一个任期曾经加了中国商品20%关税，今晚我的文章默认它已 经存在，讨论不包含，讨论的仅限于2025年的关税变化。 用一句话说就是美国的关税从145%减到了30%，中国的关税从125%减到了10%，起码未来90天是这 样，减掉的关税里有24%待议，90天后看协商的结果。 横向比的话现在的中国和欧洲、日本的待遇相当，之前特朗普和中国政府互相报 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of a 90-day truce in US-China tariffs, which is expected to impact various sectors positively [1][2] - The timing of the announcement after the A-share market close is strategic, aimed at preventing market panic and allowing institutions to digest the information [1][2] - The 90-day buffer period serves as a pressure test for both sides, providing a window for supply chain adjustments and assessing compliance sincerity [2][3] Group 2 - Three potential scenarios are outlined for the end of the 90-day period: a 50% probability of further tariff reductions, a 30% probability of maintaining the status quo with escalating tech tensions, and a 20% probability of reinstating higher tariffs [2][3] - The article highlights the asymmetry in US-China trade, with China's exports to the US being 3.2 times greater than the reverse, suggesting that China can absorb costs better despite higher tariffs [3][4] - The agreement is characterized as a tactical ceasefire, with the US aiming to lower inflation ahead of midterm elections, while China seeks breakthroughs in critical technology sectors [4]

Key Points - The US and China have agreed to cancel 91% of tariffs and suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs during the Geneva trade talks [2] - President Trump announced an executive order aimed at reducing drug prices by 59% [2] Company News - Apple (AAPL.O) shares rose nearly 7% in pre-market trading as the company considers increasing the price of its upcoming iPhone series, asserting that it is "unrelated to tariffs" [2] - Eli Lilly (LLY.N) shares fell over 3% in pre-market trading after trial results indicated that tirzepatide outperformed semaglutide [2] - OpenAI and Microsoft (MSFT.O) are reportedly in discussions to unlock new funding and explore a future IPO [2] - Wedbush has removed Alphabet (GOOG.O) from its list of top investment recommendations [2] - Qatar Airways is expected to announce a deal with Boeing (BA.N) for aircraft purchases [2] - Honda (HMC.N) reported a 40.8% year-on-year decline in April car sales in China, totaling 43,689 units [2] - Nissan is reportedly planning to lay off over 10,000 employees, bringing the total layoffs to approximately 20,000 [2]

【解剖大盘】 既然关税回到正常水平，那么市场就要纠错了，反响最强烈的就是消费电子，尤其是果链，在中国有大 规模的采购和供应链布局，关税降低受益最大。高伟电子(01415)、瑞声科技(02018)、比亚迪电子 (00285)、舜宇(02382)、丘钛科技(01478)均涨超13%。再是在北美业务占比较高的汽配股敏实集团 (00425)、泉峰控股(02285)涨近10%，出口家电类的海信家电(00921)、电脑业务占比高的联想集团 (00992)也涨超9%。上次提到的航运类如德翔海运(02510)、东方海外国际(00316)继续涨超5%；今天发 酵的中远海控(01919)涨超8%。 利好有点多，都有点不习惯，尤其是中美这次会谈居然大超预期，恒指直接暴涨2.98%，量能更是大幅 放大到了3224亿。 先说一下周末的利好，首先是印度和巴基斯坦同意停火。上周五判断印巴冲突会"市场倾向于会逐步降 温。"但直接停火是没想到的。印度这么能装的国家都装不下去了，只能说明实力真不允许，或许是背 后的军火供应商扛不住了，再打就彻底要玩脱了。停火当然是好事，周一，印度和巴基斯坦股市强势上 涨。巴基斯坦基准股指KSE-30指数一度飙升 ...

消息面上，在周一A股收盘时，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性 进展，大幅降低双边关税水平。 周边市场方面，上周五美股大致平收。周一港股恒指大涨2.98%，恒生科技指数暴涨5.16%。 汇市方面，美元指数于周一亚太交易时段小涨，午后欧洲交易时段又因上述关税相关利好消息而加速上 涨。至周一傍晚时分，美元指数暂涨约1%。人民币汇率在美元升值背景下不跌反升，至周一傍晚时 分，离岸人民币汇率暂升0.44%至7.2080。 周二A股高开应无悬念，就操作层面来看，短期内投资者不妨更侧重一些结构性机会。既然关税会淡已 取得了重大进展，投资者一般就可选择些之前承压严重的出口类个股，这部分个股应至少会有些修复性 行情。 每经记者｜郑步春 每经编辑｜叶峰 周一A股普涨，截至收盘，上证综指涨0.82%至3369.24点；深综指、创业板综指、科创50、北证50分别 涨1.70%、2.39%、0.49%、2.89%。 由盘面看，上周表现强势的军工股再度发力大涨，军工板块中的航天航空与船舶制造涨势最为明显。此 外，电机、通信设备、消费电子、交运设备、电池、电子元件板块涨幅居前。下跌个股相对较少，医 药、食品饮 ...

一、政策框架与执行机制的双重变奏 申请入围"中国IC独角兽" 半导体高质量发展创新成果征集 90天缓冲期 （至2025年8月12日）为双方预留谈判空间，若未能就剩余10%关税达成共识，24%税率可 能卷土重来甚至加码。 敏感领域保留 ：半导体设备、AI芯片等仍被排除在关税减免之外，美国通过"实体清单"和出口管制维 持技术封锁，例如应用材料公司对中国14nm以下刻蚀机出口仍需逐案审批。 非关税措施联动 ：中国暂停稀土出口限制，美方则重启关键设备出口许可审查，形成"关税换技术"的 隐性交易。 中美日内瓦经贸会谈达成的关税调整协议，本质上是双方在科技霸权与产业安全间的阶段性妥协。根据 联合声明，美国对华半导体相关关税从最高145%降至30%（保留10%基准关税并暂停24%叠加关税）， 中国同步将对美反制关税从125%降至10%。这一调整并非单向让利，而是包含 结构性豁免与动态博弈 机制 ： 二、产业链成本重构与市场格局分化 关税调整对半导体行业的影响呈现显著的 结构性分化 ，既带来短期成本红利，也加剧长期竞争压力。 （一）短期成本改善与供应链修复 设备采购成本下降 美国暂停24%关税后，中芯国际进口EUV光刻机、刻 ...

Group 1 - The US and China have agreed to cancel a total of 91% of the tariffs imposed on each other's goods, with a temporary suspension of 24% of retaliatory tariffs for 90 days [1] - Major US stock indices saw significant gains, with Dow futures up 2.06%, S&P 500 futures up 2.79%, and Nasdaq futures up 3.84% [2] - Chinese concept stocks surged, with Jia Yuda, a cross-border logistics service company, seeing a pre-market increase of over 200% [1] Group 2 - Pharmaceutical stocks collectively declined following Trump's announcement to lower prescription drug prices, with Pfizer down 2.92% and AstraZeneca down 3.34% [2] - Technology stocks experienced a notable rise, with Apple up 6.38%, Nvidia up 4.93%, and Amazon up 7.93% [3] - A study funded by Eli Lilly showed that its weight loss drug, Tirzepatide, outperformed Novo Nordisk's Semaglutide, leading to a decline in Eli Lilly's stock by 2.78% [3] Group 3 - The US dollar index rose sharply, with the offshore yuan appreciating by over 400 points [3] - Commodity prices increased following the US-China joint statement, with Brent crude oil rising by 3.7% and copper by 1.4%, benefiting major mining companies [3] - Gold prices fell significantly after the joint statement, with spot gold dropping about $20 per ounce, leading to a decline in gold stocks [4]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,082.00 | +60↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2180461 | -163860↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -3354 | +86397↑ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -21 | -6↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 168703 | +11664↑ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 138 | +3↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,190.00 | +10↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,272 | +10↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,390.00 | +10↑ 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,190.00 | +10↑ | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 108.00 | ...

Core Points - The recent high-level economic talks between China and the U.S. resulted in significant tariff reductions, with both sides canceling 91% of additional tariffs and suspending 24% of retaliatory tariffs [3][4] - The adjustments in tariffs and trade measures are expected to directly impact international trade activities, leading to increased demand for insurance products related to goods trade [3][4] Group 1: Direct Impacts - The cancellation of tariffs is likely to lower import and export costs, stimulating trade volume growth and increasing demand for cargo and transport insurance [4] - The removal of trade barriers may enhance the demand for credit insurance and political risk insurance as companies expand their cross-border operations [4] - Improved trade conditions could reduce the risk of supply chain disruptions due to tariff fluctuations, affecting the pricing and underwriting strategies of business interruption insurance [4][5] Group 2: Indirect Impacts - A rebound in bilateral trade is expected to boost related industries such as logistics and manufacturing, leading to increased demand for property and liability insurance [5] - Stabilization of the RMB exchange rate may lower foreign exchange risks and alleviate the currency hedging pressures faced by insurance companies in cross-border investments [5] - The establishment of a regular consultation mechanism is anticipated to reduce policy uncertainties, benefiting the optimization of risk assessment models for cross-border insurance fund allocation [5]