Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for stronger macroeconomic policies to stabilize the economy amid increasing external shocks, highlighting the importance of proactive fiscal and monetary measures to support growth and employment [1][2][3]. Economic Performance - In Q1, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing the growth rates of the previous year and positioning it among the leading global economies [2]. - The meeting acknowledged the need to solidify the foundation for ongoing economic recovery due to heightened external pressures [2]. Policy Tools - The meeting called for the enhancement of the policy toolbox to include both flexibility and unconventional features, aiming to respond effectively to economic fluctuations [2]. - It was noted that the policies should be timely and responsive to changes in the economic landscape, with a focus on stabilizing employment and economic growth [2][3]. Monetary Policy - The meeting reiterated the commitment to maintaining liquidity and supporting the real economy through structural monetary policy tools, including potential interest rate cuts and the establishment of new financial instruments [4][5]. - Recent data indicated a significant increase in social financing, with March's increment reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, reflecting robust monetary support for economic recovery [4]. Fiscal Policy - The meeting emphasized accelerating the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds, with a total issuance plan of 1.3 trillion yuan announced [6]. - The focus will be on expediting fiscal spending and optimizing expenditure structures to ensure the stability of basic public services [6][7]. Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate that fiscal policies may include measures such as increasing the issuance of government bonds and expanding consumer subsidies to stimulate new consumption growth areas [7]. - The meeting highlighted the urgency of addressing local government debts owed to enterprises, indicating a potential allocation of funds to resolve these issues [7].

近日，2025年超长期特别国债发行"开闸"，两期共计1210亿元债券顺利发行。与此同时，中央金融 机构注资特别国债也启动发行。中央政治局会议强调，"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用 足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使 用"。宏观政策加速落地显效，推动我国经济稳中有进、持续向好，更有效应对外部变化的不确定性。 从2024年起连续几年发行超长期特别国债，是党中央作出的一项重大决策部署。2024年我国发行1 万亿元超长期特别国债，其中，7000亿元用于支持国家重大战略和重点领域安全能力建设；3000亿元用 于支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，特别是加大汽车报废更新、家电产品以旧换新补贴力度，拉 动消费效应明显。1万亿元超长期特别国债的发行使用，有力支持了"两重"建设、"两新"工作。 今年我国财政政策进一步加力，明确要"更加积极"，超长期特别国债也更加给力。一方面，资金规 模更大。按照预算安排，今年我国拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，比上年增加3000亿元，其中， 8000亿元用于更大力度支持"两重"项目，5000亿元用于加力扩围实施"两新"政策。另一方 ...

从理财市场一季报来看，2 0 2 5Q1末理财规模较年初下降0 . 8 1万亿元，同比多减0 . 6 4万亿元。资产配置方面，一季度理财产品增 配同业资产，减配存款和同业存单。展望来看，随着二季度债市修复和银行负债压力减弱，理财规模有望重回景气扩张。从银 行板块投资看，在宏观"审慎"和"走弱"的两种假设情形下，银行板块相对于大部分行业而言，基本面具备相对稳健特征，相对 价值显著。 ▍ 事项： 本周银行业理财登记托管中心发布《中国银行业理财市场季度报告（2 0 2 5年一季度）》；中共中央政治局4月2 5日召开会议， 分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。 ▍ 市场规模：2 0 2 5Q1末理财规模较年初下降0 . 8 1万亿元。 1）2 0 2 5Q1年末理财存续规模2 9 . 1 4万亿元，同比增长9 . 4 1%，较年初下降0 . 8 1万亿元，同比多减0 . 6 4万亿元。 2 0 2 5年一季 度，理财市场整体景气度处于低位，当季债市波动较大影响理财收益率，根据我们的样本测算，2 0 2 5Q1纯债型和非纯债型固 收类理财产品平均年化收益率分别为1 . 5 6%/ 1 . 3 7%（2 0 2 4Q1分别为 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including the use of fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1] - The meeting highlights the acceleration of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds issuance [1] - There is a focus on maintaining liquidity and supporting the real economy through potential interest rate cuts and the creation of new structural monetary policy tools [1] Group 2: International Cooperation and Trade - The Chinese Ministry of Finance announces a commitment to more proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve annual growth targets and contribute to global economic stability [2] - China continues to offer zero-tariff treatment to products from the least developed countries and aims to further open its market for mutual benefits [2] Group 3: E-commerce and Trade Zones - The State Council approves the establishment of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones in Hainan and 14 other cities [3] - The specific implementation plans for these pilot zones will be managed by the respective provincial governments [3] Group 4: Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission releases new regulations on the temporary suspension and exemption of information disclosure for listed companies, effective from July 1, 2025 [4] - The new rules clarify the scope of exemptions and reinforce the responsibilities of companies regarding disclosure management [4] Group 5: Stock Market Regulations - The Shanghai Stock Exchange publishes revised stock listing rules, enhancing the responsibilities of audit committees and protecting minority shareholders' rights [5] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange also issues updated listing rules, focusing on similar regulatory enhancements [5] Group 6: Taxation and Consumer Spending - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments announce measures to optimize the departure tax refund process to boost inbound consumption [6][7] - The initiative includes promoting "buy and refund" services nationwide and establishing centralized refund points in high-traffic areas [6][7] Group 7: Financial Regulation - The China Securities Association introduces self-regulatory measures to prevent securities firms from manipulating profits through valuation adjustments [8] - The guidelines ensure prudent valuation practices for financial instruments held by securities firms [8] Group 8: Automotive Industry Reforms - The Ministry of Commerce reports that pilot reforms in automotive circulation consumption are progressing rapidly, with high enthusiasm for local pilot applications [9] - The reforms aim to eliminate restrictive measures on car purchases and promote innovation in the automotive aftermarket [9] Group 9: Insurance Regulation - The Financial Regulatory Administration allows insurance companies to adjust the minimum guaranteed interest rates for universal life insurance products under certain conditions [10] - The regulation aims to mitigate risks during periods of declining interest rates and encourages the development of long-term universal insurance products [10] Group 10: Cultural and Tourism Promotion - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism emphasizes that departure tax refunds for shopping can enhance the export of high-quality domestic products and promote cultural exchange [11] - The initiative aims to attract inbound tourists and expand the scale of inbound tourism [11]

Group 1 - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies to address external uncertainties and stabilize economic growth [1][2] - The combination of fiscal and monetary policies is expected to be strengthened, with measures such as accelerating the issuance of local government special bonds and potential interest rate cuts [2] - The focus on service consumption as a new direction for economic growth highlights the potential in sectors like elderly care, healthcare, tourism, and dining, which could significantly boost economic activity and employment [3] Group 2 - The meeting indicates a commitment to supporting the real economy and technological innovation, aiming to cultivate new industries and enhance competitiveness [4] - Capital markets are expected to play a crucial role in financing technology-driven enterprises, particularly in strategic emerging industries such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy [4] - The urgency for counter-cyclical adjustments is underscored by increasing external trade frictions and global economic recession risks, suggesting a potential for rapid policy implementation in the coming months [4]

【 机构观点综评 】招商证券称，政策平稳发力，债市环境友好。摩根基金认为，A股市场中有许 多具有全球竞争力的企业仍被严重低估，从长期来看，它们具有非常大的投资机会。 一、焦点锐评 1.政治局：要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 4月25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出，以高质量 发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别 国债等发行使用。适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕。要不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，既 定政策早出台早见效，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节，全力巩固 经济发展和社会稳定的基本面。 【点评】广发证券表述，本次政治局会议有三大特点，一是主线明确，"以高质量发展的确定性 应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性"，做好"底线"和"预案"。二是政策具备广谱性，有带动固定资 产投资的政策，也有带动消费的政策；有带动传统部门的政策，也有带动新兴部门的政策。三是 政策整体集中于见效较快的领域。国泰基金认为，从会议来看，未来政策有望继续 ...

/ 国信期货研究 Page 1 硅铁仍然受到煤价影响，5 月仍然是动力煤的淡季，原料下行预计没有本 质改变。但伴随 4 月硅铁减产，市场供需会有所转暖。产业链来看，原料利空， 供需偏平，5 月震荡为主，等待夏季煤电旺季能否给硅铁带来明显支撑。 国信期货铁合金月报 煤系下跌拖累铁合金下行 五月暂时观望 铁合金 2025 年 4 月 27 日 主要结论 2025 年 4 月锰硅期货价格阴跌为主，期货主力合约从 2505 换仓至 2509， 截至 4 月 25 日锰硅 2509 合约收于 5796 元/吨，环比 3 月下跌 5.66%。从基本 面来看，锰硅供需状况较平，产量在 3 月回升后 4 月明显回落，日均产量处于 低位，但锰硅库存仍然上升，市场累积的过剩仍在，锰矿库存低位震荡，但近 期矿山发运及锰矿到港正常，锰矿略有缺口，但预期南 32 的澳矿在 2 季度恢 复发运。锰硅绝对价格较低，基本面未有明显驱动。宏观来看，4 月后伴随宏 观风险上升，工业品普跌，对锰硅产生利空压制。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 硅铁 4 月走势震荡下跌。基本面上看，硅铁走势依赖电价，电价和煤电、 新能源发电及火电需求息息相关，4 月煤 ...

Group 1 - The political bureau meeting emphasized the "Four Stabilities" to stabilize the economy, indicating a strong signal for new employment stabilization and enterprise relief policies to be accelerated [1][2][8] - In the first quarter, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a year-on-year decline of 3.3% to a growth of 0.8%, marking a recovery from the continuous decline since the third quarter of the previous year [1][3] - The revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, with a faster growth rate compared to the previous months [3][4] Group 2 - The profit situation among different ownership enterprises showed reduced disparity, with state-controlled enterprises' profits totaling 559.95 billion yuan, a decline of 1.4%, while foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises saw a profit increase of 2.8% to 388.35 billion yuan [4][5] - Manufacturing profits improved significantly, with a growth rate of 7.6% in the first quarter, an acceleration of 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous months [4][5] - The equipment manufacturing industry became a key support for profit growth, with profits increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, contributing 2.0 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [5][6] Group 3 - High-tech manufacturing profits turned from a decline of 5.8% to a growth of 3.5% in the first quarter, indicating a strong recovery in this sector [5][6] - The aerospace industry saw a profit increase of 23.9%, while sectors related to artificial intelligence and medical devices also experienced significant profit growth [6][7] - Policies promoting equipment updates and consumption upgrades positively impacted profits in various sectors, with wearable smart devices and kitchen appliances seeing profit increases of 78.8% and 21.7%, respectively [7][8]

Macro Economic Overview - The report maintains the asset allocation order as: stocks > bonds > commodities > currency [3][5] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and appropriate monetary policies, including timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to ensure liquidity [3][18] Asset Performance Review - The CSI 300 index increased by 0.38% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures rose by 0.62% [2][12] - Futures for coking coal and iron ore saw increases of 1.96% and 1.06% respectively [12][36] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao rose by 1 basis point to 1.33%, while the yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 1 basis point to 1.66% [12][41] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies [5][13] - Bonds are recommended for standard allocation, with a note that the "stock-bond seesaw" may impact the bond market in the short term [5][13] - Commodities and currency are suggested for underweight positions, with expected yields fluctuating around 2% [5][13] Economic Data Insights - The April LPR remained unchanged at 3.1% for the one-year term and 3.6% for the five-year term, marking six consecutive months of stability [23] - The report highlights a rebound in steel production rates, with rebar and wire rod rates increasing by 0.35 and 1.77 percentage points respectively [25][28] Market Trends - The automotive sector showed a year-on-year increase in wholesale and retail sales of 9% and 17% respectively, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [33][34] - The real estate market experienced a slight decline in transaction volumes, with a total of 148.98 million square meters sold in the week ending April 20 [33][36]

Domestic Policy Insights - The 1-year LPR remains unchanged at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, maintaining stability for six consecutive months[2] - The central bank conducted a 600 billion CNY MLF operation, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion CNY, indicating increased liquidity support[2] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and monetary measures[4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.74% to close at 21,980.74 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 1.96%[8] - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was 231.26 billion HKD, up by 18.48 billion HKD from the previous week[13] - The PE and PB ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 9.86 and 1.04, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.7% and 2.2%[19] Sector Analysis - The healthcare sector saw the highest increase at 8.37%, followed by information technology at 5.98%[11] - Consumer staples and telecommunications sectors declined by 0.29% and 2.73%, respectively[11] - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was 5.85%, positioned at the 23rd percentile since 2010[25] Investment Outlook - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, such as consumer and technology sectors[41] - Industries with lower trade dependency and higher dividend yields, including finance, energy, and utilities, are recommended for investment[41] - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong market is considered attractive for medium to long-term investments[41] Risk Factors - Uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of domestic policies poses a risk to market stability[43] - Potential disruptions from tariff policies and fluctuating market sentiments are highlighted as significant risks[43]