Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View -成材预计震荡整理运行，铝价预计短期偏强震荡 [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Building Materials (Referred to as "Chengcai") -云贵区域短流程建筑 steel 生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量 74.1 万吨；安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂停产影响日产量 1.62 万吨左右 [3][4] -2024 年 12 月 30 日 - 2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降 40.3%，同比增 43.2% [4] -成材在供需双弱格局下价格震荡下行，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2. Aluminum -美国 5 月 PPI 环比涨幅低于预期，通胀数据低暗示美联储可能尽快恢复降息，压制美元，昨日铝价偏强震荡 [3] -全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能 11082 万吨/年，运行总产能 8901 万吨/年，周度开工率回升 1.57 个百分点至 80.32% [4] -6 月下游铝加工淡季氛围浓，周度开工环比降 0.4 个百分点至 60.9% [4] -6 月 12 日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存 46.0 万吨，较本周一下降 1.7 万吨，环比上周四降 4.4 万吨 [4] -供应端偏紧，铝厂策略调整致铸锭量降，消费地到货量低造成流通货源紧张，消费端韧性消化供应 [4] -短期低到货量支撑库存去化，关注能否刷新 44 万吨年内低点 [4] -海外宏观不稳定，淡季价格有压力，库存去化支撑价格，短期铝价预计区间偏强震荡 [5]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][2][3] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing to a 0.13 percentage point decline in the overall CPI [1] Group 2: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in May [4][5] - The average PPI for January to May showed a decline of 2.6% compared to the same period last year [4] - The decline in PPI is attributed to falling international oil prices and weak domestic demand, although some sectors are showing marginal price improvements [5] Group 3: Economic Policies and Outlook - Macroeconomic policies are showing effects, with improvements in supply-demand structures leading to positive price changes in certain sectors [2][3] - Short-term pressures on CPI are expected due to international energy price fluctuations and abundant food supply, while long-term recovery is anticipated as consumption demand is released [3] - Recommendations include enhancing government investment and focusing on high-tech manufacturing to support industry upgrades [6]

进入6月以来，螺纹钢市场逐步进入传统意义上的季节性需求淡季。回顾自2021年以来螺纹钢期货价格 在6月和7月的走势，可以发现需求淡季的行情未必平淡。2021年和2023年，螺纹钢期货价格在6月和7月 均大幅上涨，而在2022年和2024年则大幅下跌。今年6月和7月，螺纹钢期货价格怎么走？笔者从基本面 角度对目前的行情进行分析梳理，供投资者参考。 基建投资维持高位 短流程钢厂持续复产，使螺纹钢供应压力依然较大。目前螺纹钢周产量为219万吨，环比下降7万吨，同 比下降15万吨。从钢厂生产计划来看，6月钢厂检修减产力度依然较弱，螺纹钢供应大概率会维持在高 位水平。 去库速度放缓 随着下游需求淡季到来，螺纹钢需求开始下滑，去库速度随之放缓。上海钢联调研数据显示，5月螺纹 钢总库存为571万吨，环比下降130万吨，同比下降205万吨。随着下游需求转弱，预计6月螺纹钢去库速 度将进一步放缓，库存由降转增的概率显著增加。 综合来看，随着下游需求淡季到来，短期螺纹钢供需压力逐步增加。另一方面，随着一揽子宏观政策加 速落地，基建投资有望维持在较高水平，中期螺纹钢需求有望回升。在上述因素的共同作用之下，6月 螺纹钢期货价格预计先 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple international investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, reflecting increased market confidence and potential foreign investment inflows [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth Forecasts - Morgan Stanley raised its forecast by 0.3 percentage points, Nomura by 0.5 percentage points, Goldman Sachs by 0.6 percentage points, UBS by 0.6 percentage points, and JPMorgan by 0.7 percentage points [1] - The upward revisions are attributed to improved external trade conditions and the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy [1][2] Group 2: Macroeconomic Policies - Since the second quarter, China's macroeconomic policies have demonstrated foresight, coherence, and effectiveness, contributing to stable economic performance [2] - Key economic indicators support the upward revisions, with GDP growing by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 and a composite PMI output index of 50.4% in May, indicating expansion [2] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment - Structural improvements in domestic demand are crucial for the optimistic outlook, with retail sales growing by 5.1% year-on-year in April and significant sales driven by the consumption upgrade policy [3] - Fixed asset investment increased by 4.0% from January to April, with equipment investment rising by 18.2% [3] Group 4: New Economic Drivers - The acceleration of new economic drivers is a significant factor in the revised growth forecasts, with high-tech manufacturing value-added increasing by 10% in April [3] - Notable growth in sectors such as aerospace and integrated circuits, along with substantial increases in the production of new energy vehicles and charging stations, highlight the ongoing transformation [3] Group 5: Overall Economic Outlook - The combination of stable macro policies, structural optimization of domestic demand, and strong new economic drivers forms a solid foundation for international capital's positive outlook on China [4] - The economy is undergoing a deep transformation, and while external uncertainties remain, the positive changes are expected to bolster confidence in addressing various risks [4]

Group 1 - The core objective of macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year is to promote a reasonable recovery of price levels, which will create space for fiscal measures to boost consumption and investment, as well as for further interest rate cuts by the central bank [1][2][5] - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of negative growth, primarily due to falling energy prices and lower food prices [1][3][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3% in May, with the drop in production material prices contributing significantly to this decline [1][6][10] Group 2 - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year in May, indicating a slight improvement in underlying price levels [1][4][5] - The decline in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and eggs, has been a major factor in the overall CPI decrease, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 8.3% year-on-year [3][4][6] - The implementation of policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as the trade-in program for vehicles and appliances, has provided some support to prices in certain sectors [4][5][8] Group 3 - The analysis indicates that while the PPI is expected to show marginal improvement, it is likely to remain in negative territory for some time due to external and internal pressures [8][9][10] - The demand for high-tech products is increasing, leading to price increases in sectors such as integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with low inflation levels exerting pressure on corporate operations and employment [5][6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month, resulting in a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to May[1][4] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained below 1.0%, indicating a weak domestic price level primarily due to insufficient consumer demand[2][4] - The decline in CPI was influenced by a 6.1% year-on-year drop in energy prices, which contributed approximately 0.47 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease[5][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year in May, with the decline accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting weakened pricing momentum and increased drag from base effects[2][9] - Month-on-month, the PPI decreased by 0.4%, maintaining the same decline rate as the previous two months[2][9] - Key sectors such as coal, steel, and cement experienced price declines due to weak domestic demand and ample supply, contributing to the overall PPI decrease[8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to hover around 0% in June, while the PPI year-on-year decline is projected to remain at approximately -3.3%[3][12] - The government aims to implement macroeconomic policies to promote reasonable price recovery in the second half of the year, which may include fiscal measures to boost consumption and further interest rate cuts by the central bank[3][12] - The impact of external economic fluctuations on consumer confidence and potential downward pressure from "export to domestic" shifts will be critical to monitor[7][12]

Inflation Overview - May CPI year-on-year growth slightly exceeded consensus expectations, while PPI year-on-year growth was slightly below expectations[1] - May CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, primarily driven by a 6.1% year-on-year decline in energy prices, which contributed approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline[2] - May PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, with production materials down 4.0% and living materials down 1.4%[20] Price Trends - Energy prices fell 1.7% month-on-month, accounting for nearly 70% of the CPI's month-on-month decline[6] - Food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, which was less than the seasonal decline of 1.1 percentage points, impacting CPI by approximately 0.04 percentage points[5] - Core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year, with service prices increasing by 0.5%[4] Sector Performance - High-end equipment manufacturing prices showed an upward trend, contrasting with the overall weakness in energy and raw material prices[1] - The decline in CPI reflects a mixed performance across sectors, with food prices showing a potential upward trend and strong service consumption demand[7] - International factors continue to influence CPI growth, highlighting the need to monitor durable goods price changes[7] Risks and Outlook - Risks include the potential for global inflation to rise again, a rapid slowdown in the European and American economies, and increasing complexity in international situations[24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - Rapeseed oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] - Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of new wheat listing and weather changes [4] - Copper prices have deviated from the moving - average system. This week, focus on its effectiveness as the basis for whether the defense is lifted [5] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [6][7] - Steel has started to repair its valuation, and a short - term bullish approach can be taken on dips [8] - Due to news disturbances, coking coal and coke will rebound from oversold levels at low positions [9] - Iron ore 2509 will mainly oscillate in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [10] - WTI crude oil will mainly oscillate around $60 - $65 per barrel [11] - Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound due to improved sentiment [12] - The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [13] - The soda ash futures market is expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term [14] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Information - Dongguan Zhongliang's imported third - grade rapeseed oil is priced at 9,260 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Soybean meal spot prices in Zhangjiagang are 2,770 yuan/ton, Tianjin 2,850 yuan/ton, Rizhao 2,790 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 2,780 yuan/ton [3] - The mainstream purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,206 yuan/ton; in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,413 yuan/ton; the purchase price at Jinzhou Port is 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton; at Bayuquan Port, it is 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton [4] - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,760 - 78,990 yuan, up 460 yuan, with a premium of flat - 150 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 43.29, up 0.72 [5] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 60,800 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 59,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,650 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,090 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [8] - The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [9] - The iron ore Platts index is 97.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [10] - The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole - latex 13,500 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 20,000 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 14,950 yuan/ton, and No. 20 rubber 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are: RSS3 63.87 Thai baht/kg, latex 56.5 Thai baht/kg, cup lump 49.5 Thai baht/kg, and raw rubber 60.5 Thai baht/kg [12] - The mainstream spot price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,680 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous period. The price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 320 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged [13] - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,373.75 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,400 yuan/ton, 1,450 yuan/ton, and 1,350 yuan/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged [14] Market Analysis - Rapeseed oil: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed one after another. In the near term, the supply of imported rapeseed is abundant, while in the long term, it is relatively tight. The downstream demand for rapeseed oil is neutral, and the inventory may remain high in the short and medium term [2] - Soybean meal: The Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions still exist. Tariff policies and weather are the main driving factors for international soybean prices. The sowing of US soybeans is going smoothly, and it is the peak export period for Brazilian soybeans. In China, the supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the supply pressure of soybean meal is becoming prominent, the trading volume is shrinking, and the downstream purchasing intention is weak [3] - Corn: The weather in US corn - producing areas is favorable for sowing and growth. The Sino - US trade relationship has eased, and there are concerns about long - term import pressure. In China, the corn market is in the off - season between old and new grains, the supply may be tight, wheat may replace corn in the feed field, and weather speculation will affect prices. The downstream demand is weak [4] - Copper: The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts this year. Global tariff confrontations continue, and China's support policies are boosting market sentiment. On the industrial side, raw material disturbances are intensifying, and domestic copper inventories are declining [5] - Lithium carbonate: The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is still high, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is changing. The prices of spot and futures are falling, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts [6] - Steel: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, the valuation is relatively low, the cost is dynamically changing, the inventory is at a low level, and the short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [8] - Coking coal and coke: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is gradually increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9] - Iron ore: The market has both bullish and bearish factors. The supply has slightly decreased, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has slightly declined, the overseas demand is differentiated, and news factors are suppressing the upward space [10] - Crude oil: The US - Iran negotiation has encountered setbacks, the Russia - Ukraine war has intensified, and the OPEC+ meeting has agreed to increase production in July, but there are objections. The supply may shrink, and the global demand is worrying [11] - Rubber: The supply is abundant, the US trade war and tariffs may suppress demand, and after the bearish factors are realized, the price may rebound due to improved sentiment [12] - PVC: The production capacity utilization rate has increased, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, the inventory has decreased, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [13] - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the inventory is slightly increasing, the demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of key events and their potential impacts on the futures market, including economic data releases, policy meetings, and international events [2]. - The outcomes of these events, such as economic data deviations from expectations, can influence different types of futures prices, including commodity, treasury bond, and stock index futures [4][7]. Key Events and Their Impacts June 9 - **China-US Economic and Trade Consultation**: Deputy Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism. The results may affect relevant futures prices [3]. - **China's May CPI and PPI**: Expected CPI to decline by 0.2% year-on-year (previous: +0.1%), and PPI to decline by 3.2% year-on-year (previous: -2.7%). A lower CPI and larger PPI decline may suppress commodity and stock index futures but benefit treasury bond futures [4]. - **China's May Import and Export Data**: Expected export growth of 5% year-on-year (previous: 8.1%) and import decline of 0.9% year-on-year (previous: -0.2%). Lower growth rates may suppress commodity and stock index futures but benefit treasury bond futures [7]. June 10 - **Press Conference on Livelihood Policies**: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on policies to improve people's livelihood. The content may impact the futures market [8]. June 11 - **EIA Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook Report**: The US Energy Information Administration will release the report, which may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [9]. - **US May CPI**: Expected unadjusted CPI to rise 2.5% year-on-year (previous: 2.3%) and 0.3% month-on-month (previous: 0.2%); core CPI to rise 2.9% year-on-year (previous: 2.8%) and 0.2% month-on-month (previous: 0.2%). Higher values may delay the Fed's first rate cut and slightly boost commodity futures prices [10]. June 12 - **China's May Financial Data**: Expected social financing scale increment of 2280 billion yuan (previous: 1159.1 billion yuan), new RMB loans of 830 billion yuan (previous: 280 billion yuan), and M2 balance growth of 8.1% year-on-year (previous: 8.0%). Higher values may benefit stock index, commodity, and treasury bond futures [11]. - **Agricultural Products Supply and Demand Report**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will release a report on agricultural products, which may affect relevant agricultural futures prices [12]. - **IEA Monthly Crude Oil Market Report**: The International Energy Agency will release the report, which may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [13]. - **US May PPI**: Expected PPI annual rate of 2.7% (previous: 2.4%), monthly rate of 0.2% (previous: -0.5%); core PPI annual rate of 3.3% (previous: 3.1%). Higher values may slightly boost industrial product futures prices [14]. - **US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims**: Expected 250,000 (previous: 247,000). A higher number may slightly boost gold and silver futures prices and suppress other industrial product futures prices [15]. - **US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change**: If inventory continues to increase, it may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [16]. June 13 - **Fed's Quarterly Financial Account Report**: The Fed will release the report, which may affect relevant futures prices [17]. - **USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report**: The US Department of Agriculture will release the report, which may affect relevant agricultural futures prices [18]. June 14 - **China's June Early Circulation Production Material Prices**: The National Bureau of Statistics will release prices of 50 products in 9 categories [19]. - **US June Michigan Consumer Confidence Index**: Expected initial value of 53 (previous: 52.2). A higher value may suppress gold and silver futures prices and benefit other commodity futures prices [20]. June 15 - 17 - **G7 Summit**: The G7 Summit will be held in Canada, with President Trump attending. The meeting's content may impact the futures market [22].

Core CPI and Economic Policy - The core CPI shows a steady upward trend, reflecting the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and the increasing impact of domestic demand on prices [1][5] - In May, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][4] CPI and PPI Trends - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points [2][7] - Energy prices dropped by 6.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline [4] Food Prices and Consumer Demand - Food prices decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with pork prices rising by 3.1% but showing a decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [4] - The analysis indicates that consumer demand is in a critical recovery phase, with expectations of gradual improvement in consumption as counter-cyclical policies take effect [4][5] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Certain sectors are experiencing marginal price improvements, with some consumer goods seeing price stabilization or increases [8] - High-tech product demand is expanding, leading to price increases in sectors such as integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] Future Price Outlook - Short-term inflation may face dual pressures, with expectations of continued negative growth in CPI and PPI in the second and third quarters [9] - Recent financial policies may signal the start of a new round of incremental policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [9]