Group 1: Core Logic of the Pig Cycle - The core logic chain of changes in the breeding sow inventory is summarized as: breeding profit fluctuations → capacity adjustment decisions (restocking/elimination) → changes in breeding sow inventory → piglet supply → future adjustments in pig supply → cyclical price fluctuations [2][3] - The essence of the pig cycle is the lagged transmission between breeding sow inventory and pig prices, rooted in the long production cycle characteristics and supply-demand mismatches [3][4] Group 2: Theoretical Lag and Practical Verification - The complete production chain from restocking breeding sows to market pigs takes 10-13 months, with significant negative correlation (r=-0.75) between breeding sow inventory and pig prices 13 months later [5][6] - Historical data shows that each round of breeding sow reduction is typically over 8%, which is sufficient to support a new price increase cycle [8] Group 3: 2025 Pig Production Capacity Outlook - As of January 2025, the national breeding sow inventory is 40.62 million heads, slightly down month-on-month but up 0.8% year-on-year, exceeding the normal inventory level [10] - The main trend for 2025 is expected to be simultaneous capacity expansion and structural adjustment, with leading companies continuing to increase output while low-efficiency capacity is being eliminated [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report provides a buy rating for Hai Da Group (002311.SZ) with an "A" rating, and a buy rating for Sheng Nong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) with a "B" rating. Other companies like Guai Bao Pet (301498.SZ) and Zhong Chong Shares (002891.SZ) are rated as "A" for increase, while Tang Ren Shen (002567.SZ), Shen Nong Group (605296.SH), Ju Xing Nong Mu (603477.SH), and New Hope (000876.SZ) are rated as "B" for increase [1]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing a seasonal decline in pig prices, yet they remain within a profitable range. The report indicates that the pig price in the off-season is still maintaining profitability [2][4]. - The report highlights that the pig farming industry is entering a profitability cycle starting from Q2 2024, despite the average debt ratio still needing to decrease significantly. The market's expectations regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability may be overly pessimistic [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a recovery in the feed industry due to lower raw material prices and improving breeding conditions, particularly for Hai Da Group, which is expected to see an upward trend in its operational fundamentals [5]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of March 7, 2025, the average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan are 14.85, 15.32, and 14.39 yuan per kilogram, reflecting increases of 0.07%, 0.99%, and 0.35% respectively. The average pork price is 20.81 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.24% [3][23]. - The average wholesale price for piglets is 28.00 yuan per kilogram, up by 2.75%, while the average price for two-yuan sows remains stable at 32.47 yuan per kilogram [3][23]. Poultry Farming - The weekly price for white feather broiler chickens is 6.59 yuan per kilogram, up by 8.03%, and the price for broiler chicks is 2.54 yuan per chick, up by 10.92%. However, the breeding profit is negative at -1.90 yuan per chick [31]. Feed Processing - The total industrial feed production in 2024 is reported at 31,503.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous year. The production of pig feed is 14,391.3 million tons, down by 3.9% [34]. Market Performance - For the week of March 3 to March 9, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.39%, while the agricultural sector rose by 1.04%, ranking 20th among sectors. The top-performing sub-industries include food and feed additives, animal health, fruit and vegetable processing, pig farming, and chicken farming [2][17].

Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for several stocks in the agriculture sector, with "Buy-A" ratings for Haida Group (002311.SZ) and "Buy-B" ratings for Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) [1]. Core Insights - The livestock farming sector is expected to see improved performance in 2024, with a focus on the profitability of pig farming as the industry enters a recovery phase [4]. - The report highlights that the current market may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability, overlooking potential positive influences from declining raw material costs and macroeconomic demand recovery in 2025 [4]. - The poultry industry is also showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for broiler chickens and eggs, indicating potential profitability improvements [26]. Summary by Sections Livestock Farming - As of February 28, 2025, average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 14.84, 15.17, and 14.34 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.98%, 3.80%, and 2.05% respectively [3]. - The average pork price was 20.86 yuan/kg, down 2.75% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price for piglets increased by 0.44% to 27.25 yuan/kg [3][18]. - The self-breeding profit was 43.08 yuan/head, while the profit from purchasing piglets was 9.39 yuan/head [3][18]. Poultry Farming - The weekly price for white feather broiler chickens was 6.10 yuan/kg, up 3.92% week-on-week, and the price for broiler chicks rose by 9.05% to 2.29 yuan/chick [26]. - Egg prices increased by 5.41% to 7.80 yuan/kg [26]. Feed Processing - In 2024, the total industrial feed production in China decreased by 2.1% to 31,503.1 million tons, with pig feed production down 3.9% to 14,391.3 million tons [30]. - The production of pet feed, however, saw a growth of 9.3%, indicating a potential area of opportunity within the feed sector [30]. Aquaculture - As of February 28, 2025, prices for sea cucumbers, shrimp, and bass remained stable at 180.00 yuan/kg, 300.00 yuan/kg, and 50.00 yuan/kg respectively [34]. - Freshwater fish prices showed mixed results, with grass carp at 15.02 yuan/kg (down 0.66%) and crucian carp at 20.55 yuan/kg (up 0.05%) [34]. Crop and Oilseed Processing - As of February 28, 2025, soybean prices were 3,878.89 yuan/ton, down 0.49%, while corn and wheat prices were 2,218.14 yuan/ton and 2,434.28 yuan/ton, respectively, showing slight increases [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the proposals and insights shared by Liu Yonghao, Chairman of New Hope Group, during a media communication meeting, focusing on agricultural development, support for the private economy, and rural entrepreneurship. Group 1: Proposals and Themes - Liu Yonghao plans to submit five proposals at the upcoming National People's Congress, focusing on "three rural issues," the private economy, poverty alleviation, and rural construction [1] - The call for subsidies for durable consumer goods and the issuance of consumption vouchers to stimulate consumption [2][9] - Suggestions to support young entrepreneurs moving to rural areas with subsidies, such as providing 10,000 yuan for university graduates starting businesses in rural areas [2][10] Group 2: Industry Insights - Traditional industries like meat, eggs, and dairy will not disappear; efforts should focus on expanding scale, introducing technology, optimizing varieties, and improving efficiency [2] - New Hope is exploring "AI + modern agriculture," aiming to enhance feed formulation, genetic testing in breeding, cold chain logistics efficiency, and disease prevention through AI [2][6] - The company is working to reduce reliance on imported breeding stock for pigs, developing high-quality local breeds like Sichuan fragrant pigs [6] Group 3: Financial Support and Performance - Financial institutions have continued to support New Hope during challenging times, with banks actively proposing to strengthen cooperation [2][7] - New Hope's revenue for 2024 is expected to be roughly flat compared to 2023, with a significant increase in profitability; projected net profit is between 450 million and 550 million yuan, representing an increase of 80.58% to 120.71% year-on-year [2][7] - The use of futures products, particularly in pig trading, is seen as a way to stabilize price fluctuations in the pig cycle, with New Hope participating cautiously [2][8]