1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For PTA, the futures markets fluctuated and closed lower, with the spot market showing average negotiation atmosphere and little change in spot basis. The market expects the basis to have limited upside potential, and the absolute price to fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Before the holiday, the intention of traders to hold goods was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation is expected to turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2. Daily Hints - **PTA Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: Futures fluctuated and closed lower, spot negotiation average, basis little change. 10 - mid contracts traded at a discount of around 55 to 01 contracts, price negotiation range 4570 - 4610. Mainstream spot basis is 01 - 55 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4590, 01 contract basis is - 62, neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period, bullish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: Net short, short positions increasing, bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Futures prices rebounded with the cost side this week. Some PTA devices reduced production or shut down due to typhoons, and downstream polyester sales improved significantly, with the spot basis strengthening slightly. However, the market expectation is still bearish, and the basis is expected to have limited upside potential [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Spot transactions were mainly at a premium of 63 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the trading was weak. Traders' intention to hold goods before the holiday was not high [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4295, 01 contract basis is 71, bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period, bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: Main net short, short positions decreasing, bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: Polyester sales improved significantly last week, and the product inventory of polyester factories decreased significantly. Before the holiday, the intention to hold ethylene glycol in the market was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation will turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Bullish Factors**: - Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 607,000 barrels, which was in contrast to analysts' forecast of an increase of 235,000 barrels [8]. - As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has some expectations for the start of demand [9]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to resume production in November [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the market rebounds [11]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents data from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows data from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol production, import, consumption, and port inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [13]. - **Price - related Data**: - **Bottle Chip Spot Price**: Shows the price trends of PET bottle chips in the East China market from 2020 to 2025 [15][16][17]. - **Bottle Chip Production Gross Margin**: Displays the production gross margin trends of bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - **Bottle Chip Capacity Utilization Rate**: Presents the capacity utilization rate trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Bottle Chip Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2024 [23][24]. - **PTA Spread and Basis**: Includes TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1 spreads and PTA basis trends from 2019 to 2025 [25][26][27][29][30][31]. - **MEG Spread and Basis**: Covers EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1 spreads and MEG basis trends from 2021 to 2025 [32][33][34][35][36][37][38]. - **Spot Spread**: Displays TA - EG spot spread and paraxylene processing spread trends from 2021 to 2025 [39][40]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **PTA Inventory**: Shows the trends of PTA factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - **MEG Inventory**: Presents the trends of MEG port inventory in East China from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - **PET Chip Inventory**: Displays the trends of PET chip factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Polyester Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, DTY, FDY, and POY from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50][51]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: - **Upstream Operating Rates**: Include the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [52][53][54][55]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Comprise the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [56][57][58][59]. - **Profit - related Data**: - **PTA Processing Fee**: Shows the PTA processing fee trends from 2022 to 2025 [60][61]. - **MEG Profit**: Presents the profit trends of different MEG production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Polyester Fiber Profit**: Displays the profit trends of polyester staple fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [65][66][67][68][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend forecasts and trading suggestions for various energy - chemical futures on September 30, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. Some products are expected to be weak in the medium - term, while others may show short - term fluctuations or maintain a certain trend [2][11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The unilateral trend may remain weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread. It is recommended to take profit on PXN positions. The domestic PX operating rate is 86.7% (+0.4%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 78% (-0.2%). Demand pressure is high, and there is limited upward drive [11]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend may be weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread. It is advisable to short the PTA processing fee on the 01/05 contracts. PTA inventory is rising, and the polyester operating rate is 90.3% (-1.3%) [12][13]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend may be weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread. The ethylene glycol operating rate in the Chinese mainland is 73.08% (down 1.85% from the previous period). The polyester operating rate is 90.3% (-1.3%), and the supply - demand balance sheet is currently strong in the short - term [14]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.47 million tons from the previous period, with a decline of 1.01% [15][17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is in a weak operation. The trend strength is - 1. The supply of butadiene is high, and the inventory pressure of synthetic rubber is increasing. The decline rate may slow down from a valuation perspective [19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt - Asphalt shows a decline in both factory and warehouse inventories. The trend strength is - 1. From September 23 - 29, 2025, the domestic asphalt weekly output decreased by 30,000 tons, a decline of 4.3%. As of September 29, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.6% [22][33]. 3.5 LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to have a medium - term oscillating market. The trend strength is 0. The cost side strongly supports the PE market. The demand is improving, and the inventory pressure is not significant. The short - term is strong, and the medium - term may oscillate [34][35]. 3.6 PP - PP may be in an oscillating market in the medium - term. The trend strength is 0. The short - term demand has improved, and the cost side has strengthened. The supply - side maintenance has increased, and the market is expected to oscillate before the National Day [38][39]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is suppressed by weak reality but strongly supported by cost. The trend strength is 0. The 32 - alkali spot in Shandong is under pressure, but the 50 - alkali price has increased. The cost support is strong, and the market may oscillate widely [42][43]. 3.8 Pulp - Pulp is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. The futures market led the decline, and the spot market was divided. The port inventory decreased by 3.7% week - on - week, but the absolute inventory was still high, and the demand did not improve [46][49]. 3.9 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0. The domestic float glass market price was stable with partial increases, and the downstream提货 volume was limited [51][52]. 3.10 Methanol - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The trend strength is 0. The port inventory decreased by 656,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.21%. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations [54][56]. 3.11 Urea - Urea is expected to oscillate in the short - term with a weakening trend. The trend strength is 0. As of September 24, 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises increased by 529,000 tons from the previous week, a 4.54% increase. The short - term price may oscillate, and the medium - term trend is weak [59][60]. 3.12 Styrene - It is recommended to take profit on short positions in styrene before the National Day. The trend strength is 0. The industrial chain valuation has declined, and the high - inventory problem is difficult to solve in the short - term [62][63]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The trend strength is 0. The domestic soda ash market is stable, the supply is high, and the downstream demand is average [65][67]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - LPG has strong short - term support, and attention should be paid to cost changes; propylene is expected to be weak in the short - term. The trend strength of both is 0. The PDH operating rate is 69.5%, and there are many domestic device maintenance plans [70][71]. 3.15 PVC - PVC is in a low - level oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The market has strong low - level support, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the medium - term trend still has pressure [77]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil's night - session price rose and then fell, with the price center remaining high; low - sulfur fuel oil is weakening in the short - term, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market has slightly rebounded. The trend strength of both is 0 [80]. 3.17 Container Freight Index (European Line) - Attention should be paid to the price increase announcements and the fermentation of geopolitical events for the container freight index (European line). The trend strength is not mentioned. The freight rates of European and US - West routes have declined, and the market is affected by multiple factors [82].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, near - term rapeseed arrivals in China are low, reducing supply pressure, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations lack substantial progress, weakening long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. With frequent trade policy news, market trading is cautious, and volatility increases, so short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, this year's festival stocking is lower than previous years, and overall consumption support is limited. The domestic vegetable oil supply - demand is still relatively loose, constraining short - term prices. But for rapeseed oil itself, the low oil mill operating rate and fewer near - term rapeseed purchases result in low supply - side pressure. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts purchases, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight. The price is supported before there is substantial progress in Sino - Canadian trade negotiations, but volatility increases due to frequent policy changes in Argentina [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 10,093 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2,416 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 614.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.3 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5,285 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan [2]. - Spread and basis: The rapeseed oil 1 - 5 month spread is 503 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the rapeseed meal 1 - 5 month spread is 93 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 147 yuan/ton; the rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 84 yuan/ton [2]. - Positions and warehouse receipts: The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 331,056 lots, down 23,209 lots; the main - contract positions of rapeseed meal are 359,652 lots, down 11,448 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 29,336 lots, down 7,113 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are - 58,070 lots, up 4,493 lots. The rapeseed oil warehouse receipts are 8,057 sheets; the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts are 9,245 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,240 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10,305 yuan/ton; the import cost of rapeseed is 7,541.24 yuan/ton, down 3.59 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,390 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,110 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,940 yuan/ton [2]. - Price differences: The rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference is 1,780 yuan/ton; the rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference is 1,010 yuan/ton; the soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference is 440 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.58 million tons, up 0.04 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast in a certain area is 12,378 thousand tons [2]. - Imports and processing: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 959 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 5 million tons, down 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 5.33%, down 7.73 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2]. - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 6.85 million tons, down 0.7 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.5 million tons, down 0.25 million tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory is 51 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory is 28.93 million tons, down 1.07 million tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 3 million tons, down 0.5 million tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil pickup volume is 1.55 million tons, down 2.78 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal pickup volume is 2.79 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The current - month feed production is 2,927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; the current - month edible vegetable oil production is 450.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The current - month catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4,495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.33%, up 1.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.32%, up 1.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.52%, up 0.18 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 14.5%, up 0.17 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 22.83%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.5%, up 0.24 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.12%, up 0.32 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.31%, up 0.12 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 26, ICE rapeseed futures reversed mid - week gains. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures fell 5.00 Canadian dollars, or 0.8%, to settle at 614.60 Canadian dollars/ton; the January rapeseed futures fell 5.00 Canadian dollars, or 0.8%, to settle at 627.7 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - U.S. soybeans are in the harvest season, and the expected high yield continues to constrain soybean prices. China has not ordered any U.S. soybeans for the current year, and U.S. soybean export pressure remains. Argentina has re - imposed export tariffs, normalizing international market competition. The market focuses on the USDA quarterly inventory report [2]. - The Canadian rapeseed crop yield is estimated at 20 million tons, the highest since 2018, and the harvest is ongoing, which will put pressure on Canadian rapeseed prices [2]. - Driven by bilateral trade agreements and the EU's second postponement of the zero - deforestation law, Indonesian palm oil exports are boosted [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Aluminum continues to trade sideways, alumina's price center is moving down, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,745 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,649 US dollars, down 15 US dollars. Trading volumes and open interest in both the SHFE and LME decreased. The LME cancelled warrant ratio was 20.27%, down 0.68%. The SHFE aluminum cash - 3M spread was -3.80 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,901 yuan, down 41 yuan. Trading volume decreased significantly, while open interest increased. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was -20 yuan [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,325 yuan, down 60 yuan. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was -55 yuan [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 614,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 4,502.08 yuan. The import profit and loss of aluminum were negative, while the export profit of aluminum sheets and coils was 2,464.52 yuan [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina was 3,022 yuan, down 4 yuan. The CIF price at Lianyungang was 347 US dollars/ton. Alumina enterprises in Shanxi had a loss of 39 yuan [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 160 yuan. The price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,400 yuan. The combined inventory of three locations was 49,946 tons, up 211 tons [1]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The prices of imported bauxite from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea were stable, with the price of Yangquan bauxite (AI:Si = 4.5) at 550 yuan [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,830 yuan, up 20 yuan [1]. 4. Other Information - China's industrial enterprise profits in August showed significant improvement, with equipment manufacturing, raw material manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing all performing well. The US core PCE price index in August increased as expected, and consumer spending continued to rise for three months [3]. - The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is -1, and aluminum alloy is 0 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs is in a weak adjustment, and may stabilize and adjust in the short - term due to farmers' resistance to low - price sales and the double - festival consumption boost. The corn price has a downward expectation as new - season corn enters the harvest period and new grain has high moisture, and traders are not willing to build inventories [4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Futures: The LH2511 contract of live pig futures closed at 12,575 yuan/ton last week, down 2.03% from the previous week's settlement price [4] - Spot: The national average market price of outer three - yuan live pigs was 12.76 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg [4] - Profit: As of September 26, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 74.11 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 49.67 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 236.57 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 37.26 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.44, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 [4] - Market situation: The supply of leading group factories increased, demand did not improve significantly, and affected by typhoon weather in some areas, the overall market transaction was average, with weak price support. After continuous price drops, farmers' resistance to low - price sales increased, and the downstream product stocking effect appeared due to double - festival consumption [4] Corn - Futures: The C2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2,178 yuan/ton last week, up 0.32% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,365.29 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.49 yuan/ton [5] - Port prices: In Jinzhou Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,240 - 2,260 yuan/ton, with the high end up 10 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,300 - 2,310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In Bayuquan Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,240 - 2,260 yuan/ton, with the high end up 10 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,300 - 2,310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In Guangdong Shekou Port, the transaction price of 15% moisture bulk corn was 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade corn was 2,460 - 2,480 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [5] - Industrial consumption: From September 18 to September 24, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1424 million tons of corn, a week - on - week decrease of 13,900 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 534,600 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 260,500 tons, an increase of 11,400 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 50.36%, an increase of 2.2% from the previous week. The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 47.88%, a decrease of 2.43% from the previous week; the weekly production of DDGS in sample enterprises was 97,440 tons, a decrease of 4,950 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.83% [6] - Inventory: As of September 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.118 million tons, a decrease of 9.49%. As of September 26, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 650,000 tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 370,000 tons [6] - Market situation: The national corn spot market first fell and then rose. Farmers in the Northeast had high enthusiasm for selling grain, and the purchase price decreased; the market circulation in North China decreased, and the enterprise purchase price increased slightly. The operating rate of corn starch enterprises increased, while the operating rate of alcohol enterprises decreased. Feed enterprises had certain pre - festival stocking needs, but the overall purchase volume was limited [7] - Operation suggestion: As the National Day holiday approaches, it is recommended to hold a light position [7]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][3] Core Viewpoints - Aluminum continues to trade sideways; Alumina's price center is moving downward; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,745, down 20 from T - 1. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,649, down 15 from T - 1. The LME注销仓单占比 was 20.27%, down 0.68% from T - 1 [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,901, down 41 from T - 1. The trading volume was 280,445, down 48,555 from T - 1, and the open interest was 306,449, up 3,333 from T - 1 [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,325, down 60 from T - 1. The trading volume was 2,067, down 1,883 from T - 1, and the open interest was 11,833 [1] Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 614,000 tons, unchanged from T - 1. The SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipts were 63,200 tons, down 1,200 tons from T - 1. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 517,700 tons, up 1,800 tons from T - 1 [1] - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 3,022, down 4 from T - 1. The CIF price at Lianyungang was 347 US dollars per ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1] - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The price of Australian imported bauxite (Al:48 - 50%, Si:8 - 10%) was 70 US dollars per ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 160. The price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,400, unchanged from T - 1 [1] Other Information - China's industrial enterprise profits in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year, reversing the decline in July. From January to August, the profits of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.2%, and the raw material manufacturing industry increased by 22.1% [3] - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month as expected, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [3] - Aluminum trend strength is 0; Alumina trend strength is - 1; Aluminum alloy trend strength is 0 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may fall to seek support at 4,300 ringgit, and domestic palm oil futures may follow suit and fall to the range of 8,800 - 9,000 yuan. Overall, it maintains a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals of US soybean oil have not changed significantly. There is a seasonal supply pressure in the US, and domestic demand is weak after the holiday. Short - term supply exceeds demand [1]. Pork - The market supply rhythm is recovering, and the demand for large - weight pigs is increasing. The spot price is chaotic with some areas seeing larger declines. In the medium term, demand recovers slowly while supply recovers clearly, and the market may fluctuate slightly following the spot [3]. Corn - New - season corn in the Northeast is increasing in volume, and prices are weak. In North China, prices are under pressure. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and there is a seasonal restocking demand. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [5]. Meal - US soybeans lack substantial positive factors. China's domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the basis is supported before the holiday. The 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal may continue to weaken in the short term [8]. Sugar - In the short term, raw sugar prices are dragged down by Brazilian production and demand. It is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern. The new domestic sugar season has started, and the domestic market is expected to be weak [10]. Cotton - The supply side has hedging pressure after new cotton acquisition, and the demand side has low confidence in the peak season. Domestic cotton prices may be under pressure in the short and medium term [11]. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is high, and egg supply is sufficient. Demand may increase during the holidays, and egg prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On September 26, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,470 yuan, up 0.36% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,162 yuan, down 0.37%. The basis of Y2601 increased by 24.19%. For palm oil, the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,230 yuan, up 0.65%, and the futures price of P2601 was 9,236 yuan, up 0.15%. The basis of P2601 increased by 88.46%. For rapeseed oil, the spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil was 10,240 yuan, up 1.99%, and the futures price of OI601 was 10,162 yuan, up 0.20%. The basis of OI601 increased by 176.47% [1]. - **Spreads**: From September 26 to 28, the soybean oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 9.92%, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 4.17%, and the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 7.44%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 4.11%, and the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 2.36%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread remained unchanged, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread increased by 2.56% [1]. Pork - **Prices**: On September 29, the price of the live - hog 2511 contract was 12,575 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous day; the price of the 2601 contract was 13,100 yuan/ton, down 1.58%. The basis of the main contract increased by 66.67% [3]. - **Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 7.37%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 100%, the self - breeding profit per head decreased by 203.23%, and the externally - purchased breeding profit decreased by 18.69% [3]. Corn - **Prices**: On September 29, the price of the corn 2511 contract was 2,178 yuan, up 0.60% from the previous day; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2,280 yuan, down 1.30%. The basis decreased by 29.66%, and the 11 - 3 spread increased by 22.73% [5]. - **Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2,480 yuan, up 0.24%. The basis decreased by 6.98%, and the 11 - 3 spread increased by 23.08%. The starch - corn spread decreased by 2.27%, and the Shandong starch profit increased by 60.98% [5]. Meal - **Prices**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 2,940 yuan, and the futures price of M2601 also remained unchanged. The basis remained unchanged, and the spot basis quote remained the same. The Brazilian November - shipment - date crushing profit decreased by 70% [8]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged, the rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged, the spot oil - meal ratio remained unchanged, and the main - contract oil - meal ratio remained unchanged. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread remained unchanged [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: On September 29, the price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,478 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day; the price of the 2605 contract was 5,442 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract price was 16.35 cents/pound, up 0.37% [10]. - **Spot and Import**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The Nanning basis increased by 3.68%, and the Kunming basis increased by 3.37%. The quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian sugar increased, and the corresponding spreads with Nanning prices also changed [10]. - **Industry Indicators**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03%, the cumulative sales increased by 12.87%, the national industrial inventory increased by 5.24%, and the sugar import volume increased by 160% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: On September 29, the price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13,405 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous day; the price of the 2601 contract was 13,405 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. The ICE US cotton main - contract price was 66.33 cents/pound, up 0.09% [11]. - **Spot and Spreads**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.27%, and the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.28%. The 3128B - 01 and 3128B - 05 spreads increased, and the CC Index: 3128B - FC Index:M: 1% spread decreased by 3.32% [11]. - **Industry Indicators**: The commercial inventory decreased by 20.6%, the industrial inventory decreased by 3.4%, the import volume increased by 40%, the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year, and the yarn and fabric inventory days decreased [11]. Eggs - **Prices**: On September 29, the price of the egg 11 - contract was 3,036 yuan/500KG, down 1.30% from the previous day; the price of the 10 - contract was 2,940 yuan/500KG, down 1.38%. The egg - producing area price was 3.47 yuan/jin, down 3.76% [14]. - **Indicators**: The egg - chicken chick price remained unchanged, the culled - chicken price decreased by 0.64%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 7.95%, and the breeding profit increased by 135.13% [14] [15].

Group 1: Core Views - Palm oil in the international market: After continuous rebounds, Malaysia's BMD crude palm oil futures may face resistance around 4,450 ringgit. With potential downward pressure, there's a risk of seeking support at 4,300 ringgit. After a second - round adjustment and stabilization, there's a chance of a rebound, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong view [3]. - Palm oil in the domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures rose and then fell, facing resistance at the 40 - day moving average of 9,350 yuan. There's a risk of a decline, potentially following Malaysia's palm oil and retesting the 8,800 - 9,000 yuan range. Watch for the possibility of breaking through 9,350 yuan and beware of post - National Day holiday decline risks [3]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybeans and soy oil are in narrow - range oscillations, and BMD palm oil is also slightly fluctuating. Affected by uncertain Sino - US trade relations, funds are likely to withdraw before the holiday. Spot备货 is mostly finished, and the market will enter the holiday mode. Domestic soybean oil futures will maintain a range - bound trend, with the January contract supported at 8,000 yuan [4]. - Bean meal: Argentina's completed export quota eases its impact on the domestic market. Weak reality and risk - aversion sentiment pressure the market. Before the holiday, Dalian bean meal will oscillate around 2,950 yuan. Spot prices are expected to range from 2,900 to 3,150 yuan/ton [16]. Group 2: Price Data Oil Price Data - Palm oil: Palm oil 01 is at 9,236 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; Palm oil 05 is at 9,052 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; Palm oil 09 is at 8,660 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; BMD palm oil主力 is at 4,406 ringgit/ton with a - 0.74% decrease; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 9,190 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [7]. - Soybean oil: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,162 yuan/ton with a - 1.01% decrease; Soybean oil 05 is at 7,926 yuan/ton with a - 0.4% decrease; Soybean oil 09 is at 7,858 yuan/ton with a - 0.42% decrease; CBOT soybean oil主力 is at 50.2 cents/pound with a 0.86% increase; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8,380 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase [13]. Oil Spread Data - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 192 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase; P 5 - 9 is 376 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase; P 9 - 1 is - 576 yuan/ton with an 8 - yuan decrease [5]. - Soybean oil spreads: Y 1 - 5 is 262 yuan/ton with a 14 - yuan increase; Y 5 - 9 is 68 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase; Y 9 - 1 is - 326 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan decrease [5]. - Other spreads: Y - P 01 is - 1,030 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan decrease; Y - P 05 is - 1,100 yuan/ton with an 8 - yuan decrease; Y - P 09 is - 802 yuan/ton with a 14 - yuan decrease; Y/M 01 is 2.761 with a - 0.13% decrease; Y/M 05 is 2.8711 with a 0.52% increase; Y/M 09 is 2.7408 with a 0.61% increase; OI 1 - 5 is 484 yuan/ton with no change; OI 5 - 9 is 92 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan increase; OI 9 - 1 is - 576 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan decrease; OI/RM 01 is 4.1498 with a 0.18% increase; OI/RM 05 is 4.1221 with a 1.3% increase; OI/RM 09 is 3.9513 with a 1.32% increase [5]. Meal Price and Spread Data - Meal prices: Bean meal 01 is at 2,937 with a - 30 decrease and - 1.01% decrease; Bean meal 05 is at 2,751 with an - 11 decrease and - 0.4% decrease; Bean meal 09 is at 2,858 with a - 12 decrease and - 0.42% decrease; Rapeseed meal 01 is at 2,405 with a - 39 decrease and - 1.6% decrease; Rapeseed meal 05 is at 2,327 with a - 16 decrease and - 0.68% decrease; Rapeseed meal 09 is at 2,407 with a - 14 decrease and - 0.58% decrease; CBOT yellow soybeans are at 1,012 with no change; The offshore RMB is at 7.1443 with a 0.0063 increase and 0.09% increase [17]. - Meal spreads: M01 - 05 is 205 with a 24 - yuan increase; M05 - 09 is - 108 with a - 1 decrease; M09 - 01 is - 97 with a - 23 decrease; RM01 - 05 is 101 with a 25 - yuan increase; RM05 - 09 is - 78 with a 1 - yuan increase; RM09 - 01 is - 23 with a - 26 decrease [18][20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Different commodities in the energy - chemical industry have various trends. For example, some commodities like PX, PTA are expected to have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium - term; some are in a short - term or medium - term oscillatory pattern; and some show a downward or upward trend [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - Market Data: PX, PTA, and MEG had price increases on September 25. PX's price was up 5 dollars/ton, PTA increased by 65 yuan/ton, and MEG rose by 6 yuan/ton. PX's processing fee decreased by 8.38 dollars/ton, and PTA's processing fee dropped by 14.61 yuan/ton [5]. - Market Dynamics: PX's price was affected by oil prices and downstream demand. Some producers were worried about future weak demand. PTA's load was at 76.8%, and its开工 rate was around 82.7%. MEG's overall mainland China开工负荷 was 73.08%, with a decline of 1.85% [6][8][9]. - Views and Suggestions: PX is expected to have a short - term rebound but remain weak in the medium - term. PTA follows a similar pattern. For MEG, it's recommended to hold a reverse spread on the 1 - 5 month difference and go short on a single - side [11][12]. Rubber - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the rubber's day - session closing price was 15,570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day, and the night - session closing price was 15,355 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan. The trading volume increased by 20,816 hands [14]. - Industry News: Typhoon disturbances in production areas were less than expected, and buying sentiment was average. Raw material prices were stable to weak, and the de - stocking of natural rubber inventory was less than expected [15][16]. - Trend: The rubber market is expected to be oscillatory and weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [13][14]. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the closing price of butadiene rubber's main contract was 11,545 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The trading volume was 83,685 hands, a decrease of 29,720 hands [18]. - Industry News: As of September 24, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased by 0.14 million tons. The short - term commodity index was strong, and the synthetic rubber market was expected to enter an oscillatory pattern before the National Day [19][20]. - Trend: The synthetic rubber market is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, with a trend strength of 0 [20]. Asphalt - Fundamental Data: On September 26, BU2511's closing price was 3,440 yuan/ton, up 1.42%. The refinery's开工 rate was 49.88%, an increase of 2.66%, and the refinery's inventory rate was 27.11%, up 0.37% [21]. - Market News: In the week of 20250919 - 20250925, the domestic asphalt's weekly output was 69.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%. As of September 25, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories increased by 0.9%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 1.8% [33]. - Trend: The asphalt market has a slow - moving shipment, and the spot is under pressure. Its trend strength is 0 [21][30]. LLDPE - Fundamental Data: On September 26, L2601's closing price was 7169 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The 01 - contract basis was - 79 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 40 yuan [34]. - Spot News: This week, the domestic PE market price slightly decreased. Supply increased due to some plants restarting and imported goods arriving. Demand from industries like agricultural film and hollow products slightly improved [34]. - Market Analysis: In the short - term, the commodity sentiment improved, leading to a rebound in PE. In the medium - term, it may be in an oscillatory range due to factors like demand improvement in the agricultural film industry and inventory pressure relief [35]. PP - Fundamental Data: On September 26, PP2601's closing price was 6898 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The 01 - contract basis was - 198 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 43 yuan [39]. - Spot News: This week, the domestic PP market declined and then consolidated, with a price drop. Low - melt copolymer had a larger decline [40]. - Market Analysis: Short - term demand improved, but the cost was weak. It's recommended to be cautious when short - selling at a low level, and the medium - term may be an oscillatory market [40]. Caustic Soda - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the 01 - contract futures price was 2537 yuan/ton, the cheapest deliverable 32 - caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 100 yuan [43]. - Spot News: Shandong's 32 - caustic soda's weekly average price decreased by 3.73%, and 50 - caustic soda's weekly average price dropped by 2.28%. Low - degree caustic soda's inventory increased [44]. - Market Analysis: Shandong's 32 - caustic soda spot is under pressure, but there are optimistic expectations from future alumina production. The market may be in a wide - range oscillation [44][45]. Pulp - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the pulp's day - session closing price was 5060 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 52,784 hands, and the position decreased by 7473 hands [49]. - Industry News: From January to August 2025, pulp imports increased by 5.0%. Supply was abundant, and port inventory was high. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [50][51]. - Trend: The pulp market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [48]. Glass - Fundamental Data: On September 26, FG601's closing price was 1270 yuan/ton, up 3.08%. The 01 - contract basis was - 100 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 113 yuan [53]. - Spot News: On September 26, the domestic float glass market price mainly increased, and the market shipment accelerated [53]. - Trend: The glass's original - sheet price is stable, and its trend strength is 1 [52][54]. Methanol - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the methanol's closing price was 2356 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 109,826 hands, and the position decreased by 15,683 hands [56]. - Spot News: The port's methanol market was slightly weak, and the inland market declined. The port's inventory decreased but remained high [58]. - Trend: The methanol market is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, with a trend strength of 0 [56][59]. Urea - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the urea's closing price was 1674 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 97,407 hands, and the position increased by 1736 hands [61]. - Industry News: On September 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises increased by 5.29 million tons. Before the National Day, the urea futures may enter an oscillatory pattern [62]. - Trend: The urea market is expected to be oscillatory before the National Day, with a trend strength of 0 [63]. Styrene - Fundamental Data: On September 26, styrene's 2511 contract price was 7152 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The non - integrated profit was - 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton [64]. - Spot News: The macro - sentiment was weak, and the downstream's restocking willingness was low. The port's inventory was expected to accumulate [65]. - Trend: The styrene market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term, with a trend strength of 0 [64]. Soda Ash - Fundamental Data: On September 26, SA2601's closing price was 1315 yuan/ton, up 1.15%. The 01 - contract basis was - 115 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 89 yuan [69]. - Spot News: The domestic soda ash market was weakly stable and oscillatory. Supply was high, and demand was for rigid needs. The inventory decreased [69]. - Trend: The soda ash's现货 market has little change, and its trend strength is - 1 [67][70]. LPG and Propylene - Fundamental Data: On September 26, PG2510's closing price was 4380 yuan/ton, up 1.27%. PL2601's closing price was 6372 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The PDH开工率 was 69.5%, an increase from last week [72]. - Market News: On September 25, the price of 10 - month CP paper goods for propane decreased by 3 dollars/ton, and for butane also decreased by 3 dollars/ton [76]. - Trend: The LPG market is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, and propylene is expected to be weak at a high level in the short - term. Both have a trend strength of 0 [72][75]. PVC - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the 01 - contract futures price was 4935 yuan/ton, the East China spot price was 4760 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 175 yuan [78]. - Spot News: The domestic PVC spot market was oscillatory. The supply increased, and the inventory accumulated. The market sentiment was dull [78]. - Market Analysis: The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the medium - term trend is under pressure [78]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fundamental Data: On September 26, FU2510's closing price was 2969 yuan/ton, up 1.64%. LU2510's closing price was 3366 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The Singapore FOB price of high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 0.13%, and low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.70% [80]. - Trend: The fuel oil market is oscillatory at a high level and entering a short - term adjustment. The low - sulfur fuel oil has a strong upward movement, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market rebounded strongly. Both have a trend strength of 0 [80]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Fundamental Data: On September 26, EC2510's closing price was 1173.0, up 3.99%. The SCFIS for the European route was 1254.92 points, with a weekly decline of 12.9% [82]. - Trend: The container freight index (European line) is expected to be strong in the short - term [82].

2025 年 09 月 26 日 短纤：短期反弹，节前减仓 瓶片：短期反弹，节前减仓 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 短纤：直纺涤短期货跟随原料大幅上涨，现货方面工厂报价多维稳，成交部分优惠缩小。贸易商及期现 商优惠缩小，成交多有放量。下游节前备货积极。半光 1.4D 主流商谈重心在 6350~6550 区间。市场高低价 差缩小，工厂方面销售进一步好转，截止下午 3:00 附近，平均产销 78%，部分工厂产销：150%、80%、70%、 100%、30%、60%、200%、50%、100%，100%。 瓶片：上游聚酯原料期货继续上涨，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多上调 30-50 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场成交 气氛尚可。9-11 月订单多成交在 5770-5900 元/吨出厂不等，少量略低 5730 元/吨出厂附近，略高 5910-5950 元/吨出厂不等，品牌不同价格略有差异。华南一年产 110 万吨聚酯瓶片大厂因台风短停装置据悉在逐步重 启中，预计周 ...