Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Aluminium: Range-bound trading [1] - Alumina: Reaching the peak and then declining [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, China's economy withstood pressure and maintained stable growth. The added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1%. From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4% year - on - year, and the growth rate was 8% after excluding real estate development investment [1][3] - The trend strength of aluminium is 0, and that of alumina is also 0, both indicating a neutral outlook [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Aluminium Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminium main contract was 20,155 yuan, down 55 yuan from the previous trading day. The LME Aluminium 3M closing price was 2,466 US dollars, up 10 US dollars. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminium main contract showed certain changes compared with previous periods [1] - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,169 yuan, down 47 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with previous periods [1] Spot Market - **Aluminium Spot**: The domestic social inventory of aluminium ingots was 557,000 tons, with no change from the previous trading day. The inventory of LME aluminium ingots was 384,600 tons, down 2,300 tons [1] - **Alumina Spot**: The average domestic alumina price was 3,220 yuan, up 49 yuan from the previous trading day. The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 393 US dollars per ton, with no change [1] - **Other Raw Materials**: The prices of pre - baked anodes, aluminium rods, and aluminium bars also showed different degrees of changes. The prices of bauxite and caustic soda remained stable in the short term [1]

| *业期现日报 | F미 【2011 1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纪元菲 | | | | | Z00T3180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | | 单位 | 市科 | 5月22日 | 5月21日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | | 8650 | 8700 | -50 | -0.57% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | | 770 | 832 | -65 | -7.78% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | | a200 | aeoo | -100 | -1.04% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | | 820 | વેડી | -115 | -12.30% | | | 新疆99硅 | | 8050 | 8100 | -20 | -0.62% | | | 基差(新疆) | | 970 | 1035 | -65 | -6.28% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | | 合约 | | 5月22日 | 5月 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，玉米 7 月合约继续上行，期价经过连续四个交易日的调整行情过后，多头 资金增持，期价反弹。现货市场方面，此前受期价下跌拖累，现货报价下跌，成 交转弱。目前，东北玉米购销并不活跃，深加工玉米收购价格也有所下调，市场 | | | | 气氛降温，价格呈现略偏弱运行的态势。 昨日华北地区玉米价格窄幅调整，主 | | | | 流价格维持稳定。下游深加工企业到货量尚可，基本满足企业日常需求，企业根 | | | 玉米 | 据自身到货情况价格窄幅调整。销区市场玉米价格稳中偏弱运行。产区近期价格 | 震荡 | | | 偏弱，部分贸易商选择获利了结，市场购销稍有加快。新小麦继续上市，到厂价 | | | | 格偏低，对玉米替代性增强，下游饲料厂多执行前期订单，新签玉米量少。整体 | | | | 来看，在玉米期货市场，因担心进口玉米拍卖，政策预期偏空，玉米期价展开调 | | | | 整。技术上，玉米期价高位震荡，现货市场情绪有所分化。周初玉米 7 月合约跌 | | | | 破长期均线对价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting tapping. In Yunnan, raw material prices remain high due to rainy weather delaying the increase in supply. In Hainan, raw material output has improved but is still below the same period in previous years, and local processing plants are still purchasing raw materials at a premium. Overseas arrivals have decreased, resulting in a decline in bonded warehouse inflows, but weak buying and lack of outbound motivation have led to inventory accumulation in bonded warehouses. General trade warehouses are accelerating inventory reduction. Tire companies' capacity utilization rates are gradually recovering, driving an increase in提货量 from Qingdao warehouses, with the outbound rate significantly higher than the inbound rate, leading to a reduction in total spot inventory in Qingdao last week. [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies continued to increase month - on - month. Most companies' production schedules are gradually stabilizing, but some companies have slightly adjusted down their production schedules to control inventory growth, limiting the overall increase in capacity utilization. A few companies have maintenance plans at the end of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,400 - 15,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,810 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,730 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is 25 yuan/ton, and the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 790 yuan/ton. The difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton. [2] - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 154,350 lots, a decrease of 3,022 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 59,318 lots, a decrease of 32,710 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26 lots, and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is 365 lots. [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 199,540 tons, a decrease of 30 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 47,678 tons, a decrease of 11,996 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 is 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, and the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 270 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 68.59 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 3.33 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 66 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 62.75 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.2 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is - 66 US dollars/ton, and the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 53 US dollars/ton. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 66,900 tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 216,100 tons, an increase of 19,300 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 65.09%, an increase of 19.98 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 78.33%, an increase of 19.98 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 42.77 days, an increase of 0.69 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 3.09 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is - 0.68%, and the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.42%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.36%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.35%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From May 18th to May 24th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. Precipitation in northern Thailand and the Philippines north of the equator increased significantly, and most other areas were in a medium state, still affecting tapping. South of the equator, the red - flagged areas with heavy rainfall decreased, and most other areas had medium rainfall, with the expected impact on tapping decreasing. [2] - As of May 18th, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 92,100 tons, an increase of 2.34%; the general trade inventory was 522,100 tons, a decrease of 1.25%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points. [2] - As of May 22nd, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points. Most enterprises' production schedules are gradually stabilizing, but some enterprises have slightly adjusted down their production schedules to control inventory growth. [2]

，继续牵制市场价格。菜油市场呈现短期供应宽松但长期不确定性较大。盘面来看，受棕榈油下跌拖累，菜油震荡收跌，总体仍维 持区间震荡，短线参与为主。 菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9405 | -35 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2562 | 10 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 200 | 1 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 226 | 7 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 333160 | -10213 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 608010 | -7430 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 44778 | -2759 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -34125 | -7516 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 1036 | -67 仓单数量:菜粕(日, ...

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/5/22 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 827.50 | -14.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1406.50 | -11.00↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 568597.00 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 移，存量装置提负或削弱检修带来的影响。海外商品需求集中释放，EPS、PS、ABS库存高位去化，不过需 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 关注下游利润大幅下滑可能影响开工增长持续性。成本方面，美国与伊朗核谈判僵持不下，美国与其他国 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 家关税谈判持续推进，近期国际油价偏强；纯苯库存中性，国内装置重启及海外资源到港给到价格压力。E B2506下方关注7410附近支撑。 免责声明 苯乙烯产业日报 2025-05-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | ...

| | 影响。 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，生猪期价近强远弱，远月合约 2509 期价位于 1.4 万整数关口之下，9 月期 | | | | 价贴水现货，近月合约进入到交割月之后贴水回归，价格反弹。现货市场方面， | | | | 生猪价格一直维持在成本线之上，猪价呈现偏乐观的预期。目前，河南生猪市场 | | | | 出栏均价为 14.86 元/公斤，较上周五降 0.07 元/公斤。当地大场 115-130 公斤良 | | | 生猪 | 种猪主流出栏价格 14.90-15.15 元/公斤，低价 14.70 元/公斤；中小场 115-140 | 震荡 | | | 公斤良种主流出栏价格 14.40 元/公斤左右，高价 14.60 元/公斤；170-175 公斤肥 | | | | 猪出栏价格 14.80 元/公斤左右。下游屠宰方面，屠宰企业中小场良种标猪主流收 | | | | 购价格 14.40-14.60 元/公斤，均重 115-125 公斤。整体来看，生猪 9 月合约贴水 | | | | 现货，饲料成本预期下降，对猪价形成价格压力。技术上，短期关注 9 月合约猪 | | | | ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0019938 | 土浅旋 | 2025年5月21日 | | | | | | | | | | | 原田 | 5月20日 | 5月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | 8280 | 8260 | 20 | 0.24% | 江苏一级 | 现价 | Y2509 | 7662 | 7910 | -248 | -3.14% | 期价 | | 基差 | 618 | 350 | 76.57% | Y2509 | 268 | 09+350 | 09 + 360 | 现货墓差报价 | -10 | 江苏5月 | - | | 14602 | 14602 | 仓单 | 0 | 0.00% | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 5月19日 | 5月20日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 80 | 广东24度 | 8650 | 8570 ...

2025年05月21日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 21 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 橡胶：宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 合成橡胶：丁二烯回调，震荡承压 | 4 | | 沥青：区间震荡，观望为上 | 6 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 8 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 10 | | 烧碱：反弹难持续 | 11 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 16 | | 尿素：高位震荡 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：短期支撑走强，关注内盘反弹 | 22 | | PVC：后期仍有压力 | 25 | | 燃料油：日盘小幅上涨，短期转入调整走势 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘继续转弱，外盘高低硫价差小幅回弹 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡，6-8反套减仓止盈；10-12反套持有 | 28 | | 短纤：短期震荡，成本支撑偏弱 | 31 | | 瓶片：短期震荡，成 ...