Group 1 - The year marks the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Sweden, with both sides agreeing to deepen practical cooperation and develop bilateral relations [1] - China expresses willingness to implement a visa-free policy for Sweden and hopes for Sweden to play a constructive role in promoting healthy development of China-Europe relations [1] - Sweden's Foreign Minister emphasizes the importance of mutual respect and dialogue to enhance understanding and trust, while supporting an open and free trade system [1] Group 2 - The meeting highlights the significance of China-US relations as one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world, with a call for peaceful coexistence as a fundamental principle [1] - Both parties are encouraged to engage in effective communication to resolve differences and promote stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-US relations [1] - The CEO of Blackstone expresses the importance of US-China relations for global stability and prosperity, advocating for enhanced communication to eliminate misunderstandings [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S.-China relations and its impact on various industries, particularly focusing on technology, banking, steel, and agriculture sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S.-China Relations Dynamics** - The current U.S.-China relationship is characterized by tactical maneuvering rather than strategic deterioration, with both sides leaving room for future negotiations [1][5][7] - Recent U.S. policies, including technology export controls, have escalated tensions, with significant additions to the entity list affecting numerous Chinese companies [2][3] 2. **China's Response to U.S. Actions** - China has implemented countermeasures such as antitrust investigations against Qualcomm and tariffs on U.S. vessels, aiming to disrupt U.S. policy inertia and compel a reassessment of strategies [4][6] 3. **Market Sentiment and Recovery** - Despite ongoing tensions, the establishment of high-frequency communication channels between U.S. and Chinese officials has reduced market concerns compared to earlier in the year [7] - The market has shown a tendency to recover quickly after significant events since May 2019, although liquidity risks in the A-share market remain a concern [7][8] 4. **Long-term Market Outlook** - A bullish outlook on the current bull market is maintained, driven by factors such as a weak dollar, global liquidity easing, and emerging sector growth [8][10] - Short-term market pressures are anticipated around the 3,900 to 4,000 points range, with potential style shifts due to U.S.-China relations [8][9] 5. **Key Sectors to Watch** - Focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals (especially precious metals and rare earths), banking, steel, domestic software, and agriculture [9][11] - Long-term growth potential is highlighted in technology and gold sectors, particularly in batteries, chips, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [10][11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Internal U.S. Policy Conflicts** - The inconsistency in U.S. policies towards China reflects internal conflicts within the Trump administration, with different factions pushing for various measures without unified direction [3] 2. **Future Negotiation Prospects** - The potential for a deal between the U.S. and China hinges on concessions from both sides, with China likely to make moves that allow Trump to showcase his negotiation skills [6] 3. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** - Investors are advised to remain cautious of liquidity risks and consider market dips as potential buying opportunities, especially in light of upcoming APEC meetings and trade talks [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, emphasizes the need for the U.S. to return to rationality and avoid escalating tensions in economic and trade relations, highlighting that trade wars yield no winners [1]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - Recent tensions have arisen in U.S.-China relations, which had previously stabilized under the strategic guidance of the two nations' leaders [1]. - Xie Feng calls for mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation as the guiding principles for U.S.-China relations [1]. - The ambassador warns that trade wars will only lead to mutual losses and asserts that China will not passively accept damage to its rights or the multilateral trade system [1]. Group 2: Key Issues and Recommendations - Xie Feng urges the U.S. to engage in dialogue based on mutual respect and equal consultation to address concerns, rather than escalating tensions [1]. - The Taiwan issue is identified as the most disruptive factor in U.S.-China relations, with a call for the U.S. to stop distorting UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 and to refrain from sending incorrect signals to pro-independence forces in Taiwan [1]. - The ambassador encourages the U.S.-China Relations National Committee and various stakeholders to work together to promote stable and sustainable development in bilateral relations [2].

Core Points - The Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, emphasized the need for rationality from the U.S. side, urging an end to extreme pressure and advocating for dialogue to resolve mutual concerns, rather than escalating trade tensions [1] - Xie Feng stated that trade wars and tariff battles yield no winners, highlighting that both sides suffer and that mutual respect and cooperation are the only viable paths to resolve disputes [1] - The ambassador called for adherence to principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, acknowledging the historical and cultural differences between China and the U.S. while stressing the importance of not allowing biases to dictate decisions [1] Industry and Company Insights - Xie Feng urged for collective efforts to enhance China-U.S. exchanges and cooperation, noting that the relationship requires both top-down strategic guidance and grassroots support [2] - The U.S.-China National Council has played a significant role over the past 60 years as a bridge for civil exchanges and cooperation, contributing to the improvement and development of China-U.S. relations [2] - The business community is identified as a stabilizing force in China-U.S. relations, promoting pragmatic cooperation and cultural exchanges, with many U.S. companies choosing to grow alongside China [2]

Core Points - The speech emphasizes the importance of stable and healthy U.S.-China relations, which are crucial for the well-being of both nations and the world [2][3][4] - The speaker highlights the negative impact of trade wars and tariffs, asserting that there are no winners in such conflicts and calling for dialogue and mutual respect to resolve differences [2][3] - The need for cooperation in various global challenges is stressed, with an invitation for the U.S. to participate in China's initiatives for global development and governance [3][5] Group 1 - The U.S.-China relationship is described as the most significant bilateral relationship today, affecting not only the two countries but also the global future [2] - Recent trade discussions have led to positive consensus, but U.S. actions, such as export controls and tariffs, threaten to escalate tensions [2][4] - The speaker urges the U.S. to return to rationality and stop extreme pressure tactics, advocating for dialogue based on mutual respect [2][3] Group 2 - The speech acknowledges historical and cultural differences between the U.S. and China but emphasizes the importance of respecting each other's core interests [4] - The Taiwan issue is identified as a critical point of contention that must be handled with care to maintain the political foundation of U.S.-China relations [4] - The speaker calls for a collaborative approach to address global challenges, highlighting the potential for cooperation in areas like drug trafficking, climate change, and public health [3][5] Group 3 - The role of the business community in stabilizing U.S.-China relations is recognized, with examples of successful partnerships, such as Pfizer's long-term commitment to the Chinese market [5] - The upcoming Chinese Communist Party meeting is expected to outline the "15th Five-Year Plan," which will present significant opportunities for international collaboration [5] - The speaker encourages American friends to visit China and experience its realities, promoting people-to-people connections as a foundation for stronger ties [5][6]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the need for the U.S. to return to rationality and stop extreme pressure, advocating for dialogue to resolve concerns based on mutual respect and equal consultation [1][2] - The speaker highlights that trade wars and tariff battles yield no winners, and both sides should learn from past experiences that such conflicts only lead to mutual harm [1] - The importance of maintaining a direction of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation is stressed, acknowledging the historical and cultural differences between China and the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The call for collective action to enhance U.S.-China exchanges and cooperation is made, emphasizing the need for both top-down strategic guidance and bottom-up support [2] - The role of the U.S.-China National Council as a bridge for civil exchanges over the past 60 years is recognized, highlighting its contributions to improving bilateral relations [2] - The business community is identified as a stabilizing force in U.S.-China relations, promoting practical cooperation and cultural exchanges [2]

谢锋强调，中国具有独特的制度、市场、产业、人才优势，在产业转型、科技创新、消费扩容、新型城 镇化、基础设施建设、保障改善民生等方面蕴含重大机遇。即将召开的中共二十届四中全会将研究关于 制定"十五五"规划的建议，该规划是未来5年中国经济社会发展的蓝图。中方将坚定不移推进高质量发 展和高水平开放，同包括美国在内的世界各国分享发展红利。欢迎美国朋友用足"240小时过境免 签"和"中国领事"APP在线签证申办等政策利好，多到中国走走看看，亲身感受真实、立体、全面的中 国。 谢锋表示，回顾近半个世纪中美交往史，有风有雨是常态，风雨兼程、克难前行是主流，是大势。面对 变乱交织的世界，我们有一千条理由把中美关系搞好，没有任何借口把中美关系搞砸。有志者事竟成， 办法总比困难多，路在脚下，事在人为。在座各位都是中美关系的利益攸关方，众人拾柴火焰高。值此 中美关系关键时刻，让我们齐心协力，继往开来，把握正确方向，排除困难干扰，推动中美关系沿着正 确轨道行稳致远！ 格隆汇10月15日｜2025年10月14日，谢锋大使应邀出席美中关系全国委员会年度颁奖晚宴并致辞。 谢锋指出，中美关系离不开自上而下的战略引领，也需要自下而上的支撑。近 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall view for bean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday is "oscillating weakly". The core logics for these commodities are affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US relations, policies, production, exports, inventories, and cost support [5][6][7]. 3) Summary by Variety Bean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the US Treasury Secretary's statement that it is not certain to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, market sentiment has fluctuated. The expectation of tightened domestic long - term soybean supply has cooled, weakening the support for the futures price of the 2601 contract of domestic bean meal. Also, factors like Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure affect it [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The spill - over effect of the pressure on international oil prices on the oil market continues. Also, the weakening of the palm oil market industrial chain exerts obvious pressure. Macro - sentiment's influence on the oil market has significantly increased. Before the market sentiment recovers, the palm oil futures price will continue to be under pressure following the external market. Additionally, factors like biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventories, and substitution demand play a role [6][7]. Soybean Oil (Not elaborated in detail in the core logic section like the above two, but listed in the summary table) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - **Core Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic is centered around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors are that the prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - The basis of soybean oil is 180, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The commercial inventory of soybean oil on August 22 was 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The short positions of the main soybean oil contract are increasing, which is bearish. It is expected that soybean oil Y2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - The MPOB report for August shows a decrease in Malaysian palm oil production, exports, and inventory. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [3] - The basis of palm oil is - 70, with the spot price lower than the futures price, which is bearish. The port inventory of palm oil on August 22 was 580,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The long positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing, which is bullish. It is expected that palm oil P2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The MPOB report indicates a decrease in Malaysian palm oil production, exports, and inventory in August. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [4] - The basis of rapeseed oil is 201, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil on August 22 was 560,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish. The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish. The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing, which is bullish. It is expected that rapeseed oil OI2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish factor: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]

1、中国反制韩国造船企业，外部扰动加大？ 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 今日中美关系总体保持缓和、平稳。美国财长贝森特对外明确表示，10月底中美元首会谈大概率如期举 行——这是美方高层自此前风波以来首次给出明确预期，属软化、缓和姿态。 不少投资者留意到，中方今日对韩国某造船厂在美五家分公司实施新制裁，担忧这是否意味着新一轮中 美摩擦起点，资本市场会否"血雨腥风"？个人判断，其级别尚不足以构成重大冲击。当前中美关系态势 已相对明朗：不掀桌子，小争执不断。不掀桌子意味着双方仍可谈判，甚至实现高层会晤并达成重大成 果；小动作不断则体现于具体产业层面，双方为各自利益频繁出招——今日或涉造船，明日或涉港口 费，后日或涉高端芯片，再后日或涉新能源。此类小摩擦、小冲突恐将伴随中美关系多年，但只要大逻 辑不破裂、大方向仍可坐下来谈，资本市场便会逐步"心理脱敏"，反应渐弱。因此，今日外部扰动并非 市场波动主因。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级 ...