Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by various factors such as Sino - US trade frictions, policy regulations, and supply - demand relationships of different commodities. Sino - US trade issues, especially Trump's tariff threats and China's rare - earth export control, have significantly impacted the global financial market, including stocks and futures [6][14][16]. - For different commodities, their prices are mainly determined by supply - demand fundamentals. For example, in the agricultural products market, new product supply and demand consumption situations affect prices; in the energy - chemical market, production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand play key roles; in the industrial metals market, factors like inventory changes, production capacity, and trade policies are crucial [9][11][13]. - In the stock market, the A - share market is expected to be affected by short - term external shocks but will be supported by domestic policies in the medium - term. The market's core contradiction lies in domestic economic recovery and industrial upgrading [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic News - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban, and the impact on the supply chain is limited. China firmly opposes the US's tariff threats and will take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [6]. - US Vice - President Vance signaled a relaxation of Sino - US relations, saying that Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China [6]. - Issues such as the Dutch government's intervention in Anshi Semiconductor, Binance's technical glitches during cryptocurrency price drops, the rise of international gold prices, and Australia's plan for a key - minerals agreement have attracted market attention [6][7]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: On October 10, the peanut futures closed at 7786 yuan/ton, up 0.96%. With sufficient supply and weak demand, short - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at the 7850 - 7950 pressure area [9]. - Sugar: On October 10, the sugar futures closed at 5496 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. With increasing supply from Brazil and the new northern hemisphere harvest season, and some domestic factors, it is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the 5450 - 5550 yuan/ton range [9]. - Corn: On October 10, the corn futures closed at 2125 yuan/ton, down 0.51%. With new grain coming onto the market and weak demand, the price is expected to decline, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [9]. - Pigs: The national average price of live pigs continued to decline, and the market is under pressure due to concentrated supply and weak consumption after the holiday [9]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs is stable, but with slow inventory digestion and weak demand, short - selling futures and month - spread reverse arbitrage are recommended [9][11]. - Cotton: On October 10, the cotton futures closed at 13325 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. With increasing supply and weak demand, it is expected to maintain bottom - range trading [11]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea spot price is weakly stable. With sufficient supply and weak demand, the futures price is expected to be weak in the short - term [11]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price in Shandong is stable, but the futures contract is under pressure due to inventory increases during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the support at the 2400 - point level [11]. - Coking Coal: Supply is generally stable, but downstream procurement is cautious. The double - coking futures are under short - term pressure and are expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Due to Sino - US trade frictions and other factors, the prices of copper and aluminum fell on Friday night. Attention should be paid to the callback risk [13]. - Alumina: The supply is in surplus, and the 2601 contract is running weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite [13]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The demand is average after the holiday, and the inventory needs to be digested. The steel price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short - term [13]. - Ferroalloys: The overall black - series rebounded after the holiday, but the double - silicon trend is weak. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to macro and Sino - US tariff issues [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is in a downward trend. Attention should be paid to the support area of 70000 - 72000 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index Options: On October 10, the three major A - share indexes declined. The market is affected by Sino - US trade issues and other factors. For trend investors, they can consider buying bullish call spreads when the market drops significantly; volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide - straddles after the volatility drops [14]. - Stock Indexes: The short - term volatility of the A - share market has increased. The market is expected to open lower on Monday, and the technology sector will be under pressure. In the long - term, the core contradiction of the A - share market lies in domestic economic recovery and industrial upgrading [14][15][16].

中国银河：关税再袭，短期将加剧市场波动，但驱动本轮行情的核心因素未改变 中国银河证券认为，市场大概率不会复制4月7日行情。短期来看，外部环境不确定上升压制市场风险偏 好，叠加部分资金获利回吐压力，将加剧市场波动，个股分歧或加大。但是驱动本轮行情的核心因素并 未改变。流动性预计延续向好趋势。在"十五五"规划关键窗口期和三季报披露窗口期，重点关注新一轮 政策聚焦领域和业绩确定性较强板块。 东方证券：外部利空突至，市场短期走势负面影响不可避免，后市仍会重拾升势 东方证券表示，从技术走势来看，沪综指3900点"一日游"，但仍属于新高突破后的回抽确认，不过，外 部利空扰动突然而至，对市场短期走势负面影响不可避免，预计沪综指重回3700-3900箱体运行，周线 级别调整概率高，后市依然会重拾升势。 A股三大股指集体低开，沪指跌2.49%，创业板指跌4.44%。盘面上，铜缆高速连接、CPO、人形机器 人、固态电池等板块跌幅居前。 机构看后市 华西证券：关税冲击将小于4.7行情，反关税、自主可控和稳定类资产阶段性占优 华西证券认为，短期中美贸易摩擦升温难免导致资本市场波动率放大，但基于资本市场的"学习效应"和 中国稳市机制建 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened down 2.5%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.43%. Major tech stocks, including Xiaomi and Alibaba, saw declines of over 4% and 3% respectively [1]. Short-term Market Sentiment - Huatai Securities indicated that the key to short-term trading direction lies in whether market sentiment has reached an extreme level. Their constructed sentiment indicator suggests there is still room for further release. The evolving path of trade friction over the next couple of weeks is expected to have high variance, leading to continued volatility. Tactical advice includes moderate defense and recommending high-quality cash flow assets in Hong Kong, with "TACO" trades to be executed in batches [1]. Medium to Long-term Outlook - China Galaxy Strategy believes that the escalation of Sino-U.S. trade friction has led to a decrease in investor risk appetite, resulting in a valuation correction for Hong Kong stocks. However, with domestic policies supporting stable growth and medium to long-term measures to stabilize the stock market, investor sentiment is expected to gradually stabilize. Currently, Hong Kong stock valuations are at a historically high level, and the market is anticipated to experience wide fluctuations [1]. Foreign Investment Dynamics - The Guotai Junan overseas strategy team reported that foreign capital dominates most sub-sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the internet, finance, and most consumer sectors. Conversely, the southbound investment has gained significant pricing power in a few sectors such as telecommunications, coal, petrochemicals, military, and semiconductors over the past two years [1].

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend despite potential escalations in trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown crisis, with recent signals indicating a willingness for rational negotiations between the U.S. and China [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - Following President Trump's threat of significant tariff increases, U.S. stocks faced a sharp decline, and Chinese concept stocks also experienced substantial drops on October 10 [1] - On October 10, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 4.55%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index decreased by 5.61%, with total trading volume across Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reaching 2.53 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts believe that the impact of the current tariff situation will be less severe than the previous April 7 incident due to market learning effects and enhanced market stabilization mechanisms in China [2] - Long-term perspectives suggest that the A-share market will continue its slow bull trend, driven by structural profit recovery and ongoing credit repair, while short-term adjustments present opportunities for strategic investments [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to be cautious of stocks with high financing balances and consider "high-low switching" strategies, as some companies are expected to outperform following the release of third-quarter reports [2] - The financing balance on October 10 was reported at 24.257 billion yuan, accounting for 2.52% of the circulating market value, indicating a slight decrease from the previous day's balance of 24.292 billion yuan [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The glass market is expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term due to macro - level negatives and a weak fundamental situation. The supply has decreased to a relatively low level for the same period, with increased supply - side disturbances recently, but the terminal demand recovery is weak [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US trade friction may intensify. "Anti - involution" and environmental protection policies in the Shahe area have boosted sentiment, but there are many supply - side disturbances. Downstream deep - processing orders are generally weak, and real - estate terminal demand is sluggish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1148 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2601 is 1207 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 59 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 5.84% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to macro - level negatives and a weak glass fundamental situation, it is expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term [2]. Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the inventory of raw sheets [5]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level for the same period, with more supply - side disturbances recently, but the terminal demand recovery is weak, so it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [6]. Glass Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 1218 | 1207 | - 0.90% | | Shahe Safety Large - Plate Spot Price (yuan/ton) | 1156 | 1148 | - 0.69% | | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | - 62 | - 54 | - 4.84% | [7] Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1148 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Cost - Side of Fundamentals - **Glass Production Profit**: No specific profit data provided, only the data sources (Longzhong and Steel Union) are mentioned [15][20]. Supply - Side of Fundamentals - **Glass Production Lines and Output**: The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%. The daily melting capacity of float glass is 161,300 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level for the same period in history and is stabilizing and rebounding [23][25]. Demand - Side of Fundamentals - **Float Glass Monthly Consumption**: In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [29]. - **Housing Sales, New Construction, Construction, and Completion Area**: No specific data provided, only the data source (Wind) is mentioned [36][38]. - **Downstream Processor's Operation and Order Situation**: No specific data provided, only the data source (Longzhong) is mentioned [42]. Inventory of Fundamentals The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 5.84% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [45]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Fundamentals | Year | Production | Calculation | Other | Japan | Apparent Supply | Consumption | Maintenance | Production Growth Rate | Consumption Growth Rate | Net Import Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 5354 | 21 | 112 | - 91 | 5263 | 5229 | 34 | | | - 1.734 | | 2018 | 5162 | 22 | 86 | - 64 | 5098 | 5091 | 7 | - 3.59% | - 2.64% | - 1.26% | | 2019 | 5052 | 40 | 65 | - 25 | 5027 | 5061 | - 34 | - 2.13% | - 0.59% | - 0.50% | | 2020 | 5000 | 56 | 42 | 14 | 5014 | 5064 | - 50 | - 1.03% | 0.06% | 0.289 | | 2021 | 5494 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 5507 | 5412 | 95 | 9.88% | 6.87% | 0.244 | | 2022 | 5463 | 23 | 68 | - 45 | 5418 | 5327 | | - 0.56% | - 1.57% | - 0.834 | | 2023 | 5301 | 20 | 69 | - 49 | 5252 | 5372 | - 120 | - 2.97% | 0.84% | - 0.934 | | 2024E | 5510 | 20 | 69 | - 49 | 5461 | 5310 | 151 | 3.94% | - 1.15% | - 0.90% | [46]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China trade relations on the stock markets, particularly focusing on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, as well as the broader implications for the technology and resource sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Reaction to Trade Tensions** The U.S. threat to increase tariffs has led to significant market pullbacks across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, with A50 futures and the Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing declines of approximately 4-5% [3][4][6] 2. **Investor Sentiment Improvement** Compared to April, the current market sentiment regarding U.S.-China relations has improved, with investors showing increased confidence in the ongoing negotiations and the resilience of Chinese exports [4][5][6] 3. **Key Upcoming Dates** Important upcoming events include a U.S.-China meeting in the next two weeks and a tariff expiration date in early November, which could influence market dynamics [6][7] 4. **Market Position and Valuation** Current market positions and valuations are higher than in April, but the impact of recent events is expected to be less severe due to the strengthening of the Chinese economy and increased capital support [7][8] 5. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** A contrarian investment strategy is advised, focusing on increasing allocations in the technology sector, particularly in hard tech areas such as AI computing power and energy storage, as well as precious metals like gold and resource metals such as copper and aluminum [8][9] 6. **Short-term and Long-term Focus** In the short term, sectors like telecommunications, coal, oil, and agriculture are recommended for risk mitigation, while long-term excess returns may be challenging. Attention should also be given to sectors with recovering demand, such as certain chemicals, lithium batteries, and base metals [9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Trade Friction as a Short-term Disturbance** The current trade friction is viewed as a short-term disturbance rather than a long-term trend, suggesting that the underlying industrial trends and economic recovery should be trusted [2][9] 2. **Potential for Market Recovery** There is an expectation that Trump's negotiation tactics may lead to a retreat from aggressive tariff increases, providing opportunities for market recovery [6][7] 3. **Confidence in Chinese Export Resilience** The resilience of Chinese exports across technology, consumption, and manufacturing sectors has been validated, contributing to a more optimistic outlook [5][6]

关税政策变化显著影响资产价格，中国出口至美国综合税率约为 30%， 虽有关税壁垒，但中美经济互补性强，预计高额关税不会完全落实，双 方将寻求新的利益平衡点。 四季度债市环境预计优于三季度，短期内贸易战担忧或支撑债市偏强走 势，10 年期国债收益率或修复至 1.7%左右，突破后有望下探至 1.65%，但央行干预或限制进一步下行。 过去三个季度债市对基本面反应不敏感，实则反映经济边际变化不大， 绝对位置较低，需深入理解经济指标与市场行为的复杂关系，不能仅依 赖表面数据。 当前中国 5%的经济增速处于历史较低水平，债市已对此做出反应，10 年期国债收益率低于 2%，未来债市进一步下行需基本面持续走弱。 四季度货币政策预计维持稳健，降息降准概率较低，但国债买卖落地将 利好债市，若贸易摩擦加剧或股市不佳，央行可能采取宽松政策救市。 政策性金融工具由中央层面主导，倾向于支持民营企业项目，但配套资 金不足限制了社融扩张，对整体经济刺激作用有限。 固收 交易贸易摩擦，债市三步走 20251011 摘要 四季度整体经济环境预计好于三季度，贸易摩擦、财政与货币政策共同 作用下，看好债市修复机会，活跃券收益率或达 1.7%，股票市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the easing of trade concerns, with positive movements in stock futures and commodities, while highlighting the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on various markets [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Indices - U.S. stock futures opened higher, with the S&P 500 futures up 1.1% and Nasdaq futures up 1.4% [1]. - The market experienced a significant pullback due to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, with a trading volume of 2.53 trillion yuan [2]. - The financing balance increased by 50.8 billion yuan to 2.429195 trillion yuan, indicating a potential shift towards a bullish trend despite short-term volatility [2][12]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a new high, surpassing $4,060 per ounce, driven by renewed trade tensions and a lack of pressure from traditional bearish factors [3][20]. - Central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, reflecting a growing recognition of gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising global tensions [3][20]. Group 3: Oil Market - Oil prices fell approximately 4% following the announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, indicating the significant impact of trade tensions on global supply chains [4][14]. - The trade war is expected to disrupt supply chain efficiency, leading to reduced demand for oil and petrochemical products [4][15]. - Market sentiment has shifted towards safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar, resulting in a potential downward trend for oil prices [4][15]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earths, emphasizing the need for dialogue with the U.S. to resolve trade issues [1][8]. - The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) in China showed a slight decline to 89.0 in September, indicating challenges amid a complex external environment [9].

Group 1 - Trump indicated that he might provide Ukraine with "Tomahawk" missiles if the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, which could enhance Ukraine's combat capabilities [1] - The U.S. Vice President previously mentioned that the U.S. is considering supplying "Tomahawk" cruise missiles to Ukraine, capable of reaching Moscow [1] - Putin warned that supplying "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine would further damage U.S.-Russia relations [1] Group 2 - Pakistan and Afghanistan engaged in cross-border fire, with Pakistan accusing Afghanistan of provocative actions and demanding that its territory not be used for terrorist activities against Pakistan [3] - The Pakistani military reported that 200 militants were killed during the clashes, while 23 Pakistani security personnel died and 29 were injured [3] - Afghanistan's government stated that they would respond to any territorial violations and emphasized a preference for dialogue [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is set to release its latest economic conditions report on October 16, which will serve as an important reference for monetary policy [6] - As of October 12, there is a 98.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in October [7] - The A-share market is experiencing heightened trading sentiment and may undergo adjustments due to recent U.S. news impacts [9][10] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may face a significant adjustment due to high valuations and recent market dynamics [10][11] - The market style may shift towards a more balanced approach in the fourth quarter, with a focus on both technology stocks and high-dividend assets [11][12] - There is potential for further inflow of retail investor funds into the A-share market, indicating that the current market conditions may not signal the end of a bull market [12][13]

Group 1 - Trump indicated that he might provide Ukraine with "Tomahawk" missiles if the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, which could enhance Ukraine's combat capabilities [1] - The U.S. Vice President previously mentioned that the U.S. is considering supplying "Tomahawk" cruise missiles to Ukraine, capable of reaching Moscow [1] - Putin warned that supplying "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine would further damage U.S.-Russia relations [1] Group 2 - Clashes occurred between Pakistan and Afghanistan along their border, with Pakistan accusing Afghanistan of provocative actions and demanding that its territory not be used for terrorist activities against Pakistan [2] - Pakistan's military reported that 200 militants were killed during the clashes, while 23 Pakistani security personnel died and 29 were injured [2] - Pakistan's government condemned Afghanistan's actions and emphasized that it would not compromise on national sovereignty [2] Group 3 - Afghanistan's government reported casualties of 58 on the Pakistani side and 9 on their own during the border clashes, asserting their right to respond to territorial violations [3] - The Afghan government expressed a preference for dialogue to resolve issues, despite the ongoing conflict [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is set to release its latest economic conditions report on October 16, which will serve as an important reference for monetary policy [4] - As of October 12, there is a 98.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, with a high likelihood of further cuts in December [4] Group 5 - The A-share market is experiencing heightened trading sentiment and signs of overvaluation, with potential adjustments expected due to recent U.S. news impacts [5] - Analysts suggest that the A-share market's response to external shocks may be less severe than in April, but adjustments are still anticipated [5][6] - The market's trading sentiment has become more volatile, reflecting increased external uncertainties and domestic policy responses [6][7] Group 6 - Analysts predict that the A-share market may exhibit a fluctuating trend as investors seek balance amid changing external conditions [7] - The market style may shift towards a more defensive approach in the fourth quarter, with a focus on high-dividend assets like banks [7][8] - There is significant potential for retail investors to continue entering the market, indicating that it is not yet time to consider the end of the bull market [8]