Core Viewpoint - The European market will completely stop importing fertilizers from Russia and Belarus by July 1, 2028, due to the EU's tariff policy, marking a significant achievement for Poland as the rotating presidency of the EU [1] Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The European Parliament approved a new tariff law on May 22, which imposes a 6.5% basic tariff on fertilizers imported from Russia and Belarus [1] - From 2025 to 2026, an additional tax of 40 to 45 euros per ton will be levied on these fertilizers [1] - A 50% tariff will be applied to Russian and Belarusian agricultural products that have not yet been subject to additional tariffs [1] Group 2: Timeline and Leadership - The new tariffs took effect on July 1 of this year [1] - Poland assumed the rotating presidency of the EU on January 1, replacing Hungary, for a six-month term [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is crucial for asset prices, with increasing expectations for a shift to a loosening cycle due to limited inflation impact from recent tariff policies [1][2] Group 2 - Tariffs imposed by the U.S. government have had a limited effect on inflation, with the import price index showing no significant increase post-tariff, indicating that the cost burden is primarily on U.S. importers rather than consumers [2] - Core CPI and PPI remain stable, with core PPI growth at only 0.1% in May, contrasting sharply with the 10% tariffs, suggesting that inflationary pressures are easing [2] Group 3 - The current economic environment in the U.S. provides ample space for monetary policy easing, with actual interest rates significantly higher than core inflation rates, leading to expectations of rate cuts starting in September [3] - The market anticipates a gradual shift to a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with the federal funds rate potentially dropping to 3.75% by year-end [3] Group 4 - Trade policy impacts are expected to be limited, with recent agreements showing a compromise on tariffs, indicating a stable external environment for the bond market over the next few quarters [4] Group 5 - The ten-year Treasury ETF (511260) is highlighted as a key investment tool in the upcoming loosening cycle, effectively reflecting market trends and providing flexibility for investors [5] - The ETF is positioned to benefit from anticipated declines in ten-year Treasury yields as the market adjusts to expected rate cuts, supported by both policy and market dynamics [5]

油价三连涨后回落，机构预计将出现缓慢而持续的下行 金十数据7月10日讯，原油在此前三连涨后转而下跌。Ritterbusch在一份报告中指出："我们仍认为特朗 普的关税政策对美国经济增长构成重大不利因素。"该机构认为，油价已处于上涨5美元行情的"尾声阶 段"，但预计接下来的下行过程不会是快速的、为期一两周的暴跌，而更可能是一段缓慢而持续的回落 过程。 ...

分析师：预计特朗普对其他国家的关税不会像巴西一样跃升至50% 金十数据7月10日讯，特朗普表示，最新的关税税率是根据常识、贸易逆差以及美国多年来受到的待遇 综合计算出来的。但致巴西的信函表明，特朗普也将关税视为影响他不同意的外国政策的工具。一种乐 观的解读是，巴西的关税对其他国家的关税设定意义不大。Beacon Policy Advisors高级分析师欧文·泰德 福德表示，8月1日的最后期限给了巴西一个谈判征税的机会。他（特朗普）正在努力做他认为会帮助他 的朋友（巴西前总统博尔索纳罗）的事情。这在很大程度上是一次性的，我认为其他国家的关税不会从 4月2日的10%跃升至50%。 ...

据美国投资者协会的数据，在接下来的六个月里，股票价格将基本保持不变的中性预期也发生了变化。 本周这一比例为23%，而上周为21.9%。 特朗普的关税政策再次成为焦点。美国总统在周日晚上表示，任何与他所称的"金砖国家的反美政策"保 持一致的国家都将面临额外10%的关税，且无任何例外情况。特朗普还宣布对进口铜材征收50%的关 税，并表示不会延长8月1日生效的对等关税的最后期限。 周二，市场因贸易动态的不确定性而承受压力。然而，在经历了连续两天的下跌之后，市场在周三再次 反弹。原因是英伟达(NVDA.US)于周三成为首家市值达到4万亿美元的上市公司。 本周美股市场乐观情绪有所消退，因为美国总统特朗普发布的新的关税公告再次令投资者感到不安。根 据美国个人投资者协会(AAII)的一项调查，截至7月9日的一周内，看多比例为41.4%，而此前的最新数 据为45%。与此同时，看空情绪在连续两周下降后再度上升。该周的这一比例为35.6%，而前一周为 33.1%。 与此同时，随着标普500指数近期不断刷新历史高点，市场中创出新高的个股数量却寥寥无几，这对担 心市场日益集中于少数大型科技股的交易员而言并不是个好兆头。Oppenhe ...

美股三大股指期货维持在平盘附近，美国前副总统迈克·彭斯批评唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策，称这与他 第一任期内的贸易政策截然不同，将损害美国消费者和企业。 ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 07 月 10 日 | | | | 航运日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 第一部分 | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | 日报 | | | | | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2508 | 2,022.5 | 10.0 | 0.50% | 34,566.0 | 36.10% | 30,945.0 | -1.29% | | EC2510 | 1,401.1 | 11.1 | 0.80% | 13,584.0 | 32.01% | 29,957.0 | 1.06% | | EC2512 | 1,556.4 | 2.7 | 0.17% | 1,644.0 | -21.15% | 6,032.0 | -1.08% | | EC2602 | 1,365.7 | 12.3 ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.07.10 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：反内卷预期暂难证伪，商品整体偏强。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 冲高回落，韧性仍存 | 震荡 | | | | | 周三股指冲高回落，盘中上证指数站上 3500 点，沪深两市成 | | | | | | 交额继续回升至 1.53（前值为 1.47）万亿元。从行业来看，传媒、 | | | | | | 农林牧渔、综合金融板块涨幅居前，有色金属、基础化工行业领跌。 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 股指期货随现货小幅调整，各期指基差相对稳定，IC、IM 维持深 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | 度贴水状态。 | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | | 随着股指估值回升至高位，市场谨慎情绪有所提升，在没有新 | | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | 增利好的情况下，短期回归高位震荡，考虑到 7 月中报业绩 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.07.10） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：77300-79000 中期观点：60000-90000 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，特朗普拟对美国铜进口征收50%关税。 2、供给方面，智利6月份铜出口额为46.7亿美元，较去年同期增长17.5%。据SMM了 解，印尼内政部长 Tito Karnavian表示，他已要求该国矿业部放宽对安曼国际矿业公司 (AmmanMineral International)的铜精矿出口禁令，理由是这对当地经济造成了影 响。Tito 称，安曼国际矿业公司所在的Nusa Tenggara Barat省的第一季度经济同比萎缩 1.47%，受到该公司无法出口其精矿产的影响，而其冶炼厂正在增加产能。印尼已禁止出口 铜精矿和其他原料矿物，以鼓励国内的金属加工。从2023年中期开始，对一些矿物实行出 口禁令，但安曼被允许出口，直至2024年12月，届时预计将启用一家新治炼厂 3、需求方面，2025年5月，中国家用空调出口量为969.5万台，同比微增0.1%。5月 出口量额维持微幅增长，一方面是因为去年的高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Non - farm data cooled the interest - rate cut trading significantly, and the macro mainline returned to Trump's tariff policy. Trump's administration's "apparently tough but actually soft" stance strengthened the TACO consensus, but Trump may not always "follow the rules", so the risk of TACO trading reversal should be watched, and attention should be paid to the progress of EU - US and China - US trade negotiations [1]. - The better - than - expected non - farm employment data in June showed that the US labor market remained resilient, and the sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates was not triggered, leading to a significant cooling of interest - rate cut trading. The trading mainline may return to Trump's tariff policy [12][15][16]. - After the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period, Trump's tariff policy was "apparently tough but actually soft", further strengthening the market's TACO trading consensus [20][22]. - In the third quarter, the macro trading mainline may revolve around TACO trading. The potential risk was that Trump might become tougher on tariff policy after domestic pressure eased, which could lead to a reversal of TACO trading [22][31]. - The next - stage macro trading mainline still revolved around Trump's tariff policy. There was a possibility of switching from TACO trading to interest - rate cut trading in September. Attention should be paid to the EU - US trade negotiations and the China - US trade negotiations after August 12 [4][32]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Overseas Macro Mainline Recalibration 3.1.1 Non - farm Data and Interest - rate Cut Trading - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than the market expectation, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market. The government sector's employment increase supported the data, while the private sector's employment declined, showing some structural problems [12]. - Inflation was a necessary but not sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates, while a significant weakening of the labor market was a sufficient condition. The good labor data in June likely closed the door for a July interest - rate cut, and interest - rate cut trading cooled [15][16]. 3.1.2 Trump's Tariff Policy - Before the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period on July 9, Trump's administration adopted a "tough - and - soft" negotiation strategy. It sent tariff letters to 22 countries in two batches on July 7 and 9 [2][20]. - In terms of countries, the first two batches of letter - receiving countries were mainly Asian countries, with a "warning" meaning. In terms of tax rates, except for Brazil, only three countries had higher new tariff rates, and the increase was small. In terms of the implementation period, the new tariffs would be implemented on August 1, about three weeks later than the original plan [20][21]. - Trump's "apparently tough but actually soft" tariff policy strengthened the market's TACO trading consensus. After the letters were sent, the stock markets in Japan and South Korea showed a "bad news is good news" trend [22]. 3.1.3 Potential Risks of TACO Trading Reversal - Compared with April, Trump's domestic pressure had eased. The US financial market had recovered, and the "Great Beauty" bill had passed, which was a major victory for Trump [22][23][25]. - After the "Great Beauty" bill was passed, Trump's administration might shift its policy focus to tariffs to increase tariff revenue, promote re - industrialization, and strengthen the "victory narrative" for the 2026 mid - term elections [27]. - Trump's administration showed a tendency to weaponize tariff policy, such as significantly increasing the tariff rate on Brazil, which might lead to a reversal of TACO trading [29][31].