南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 在美国政府结束"停摆"后，通胀数据意外低于预期。 据央视新闻报道，美国劳工部12月18日发布的数据显示，今年11月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上 涨2.7%，低于9月的3%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，11月核心消费者价格指数同比上涨2.6%。 前路依旧迷雾重重，美联储货币政策需要更多数据来指引方向。 意外"跳水" 在通胀数据公布后，下一任美联储主席的热门人选之一白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特表示赞 赏。"我并不是说我们已经可以宣布在价格问题上取得胜利，但这份CPI报告好得令人震惊。" 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比是上周美联储议息会议上对降息决定投出反对票（主张维持利率不变）的两位 官员之一。他表示，最新公布的通胀数据"良好"，如果这一趋势持续，可能为明年进行更多的降息打开 大门。 不过，整体而言，这份意外的通胀数据参考价值有限。东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲对21世纪经济报道记 者分析称，11月CPI和核心CPI均大幅低于预期。美国11月CPI在技术层面面临两个问题：首先，因为政 府停摆，10月数据未采集，因此没有10月CPI数据，11月CPI只有同比数据，没有环比数据。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the aluminum price trend may be mainly affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, tariff impacts, the situation of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, economic data of major countries like China and the US, and spot supply and demand. Currently, aluminum prices are at a historical high, but downstream spot demand is not ideal. If speculative buying fades and medium - long - term energy prices decline, metal speculative funds may withdraw, and aluminum prices face significant pressure. The alumina price has fallen below the cost line, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting industry is restricted by the production capacity ceiling, maintaining high profit margins, but there is high uncertainty in the medium - long - term industrial outlook [2][3][44] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the Shanghai aluminum price generally showed an oscillating upward trend. In Q1, it was supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and China's mild economic rebound. In April, the US tariff policy caused a market slump, but then the market recovered. From September, with the Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, the aluminum price continued to rise and reached a new high in December. The London aluminum price trend was basically the same as that of Shanghai aluminum, but after China取消 the aluminum export tax rebate, the supply - demand situations at home and abroad diverged, and the outer - plate aluminum price was stronger than the inner - plate price for a long time [10] 3.2 China's Macroeconomic Situation 3.2.1 China's Monetary Policy in 2025 was Moderately Loose, and the Price Level was Basically Stable - In 2025, China's domestic monetary policy was moderately loose. The M2 growth rate rose from around 7.1% at the beginning of the year to a maximum of 8.8%. The CPI index rebounded from - 0.7% year - on - year in February to 0.7%. The PPI price index remained stable throughout the year. In 2026, China may implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which are favorable to non - ferrous metals [16] 3.2.2 China's Manufacturing Industry was Generally Stable in 2025 - In 2025, China's manufacturing PMI generally fluctuated around the critical point of 50. The service industry PMI was mostly above 50. In 2026, many domestic provinces and municipalities may expand the policy of issuing consumer vouchers to boost residents' consumption and ensure the stable operation of the national economy [17] 3.2.3 Fixed - asset Investment Reflected that the Economic Pressure was Still High - Since the peak in February 2021, China's fixed - asset investment growth rate has been declining. In 2025, the fixed - asset investment data was still poor. From January to November, the domestic fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year, indicating insufficient market confidence and a fragile economic recovery [22] 3.3 Analysis of Key Related Industries 3.3.1 The Real Estate Industry was Gradually Stabilizing at the Bottom - From 2024 - 2025, relevant real - estate policies were continuously introduced, but the overall performance of the real - estate industry was still not ideal. From January to November, the decline in real - estate sales area and new construction area narrowed, but the completed real - estate development investment continued to weaken. Overall, the downward trend of the real - estate industry was gradually being controlled [25] 3.3.2 The Automobile Industry was Gradually Becoming a Pillar of the National Economy, with a High Growth Rate of New Energy Vehicles - From January to November, the total domestic automobile production increased by 11% year - on - year, and the production of new energy vehicles increased by 28.1% year - on - year. In 2026, the purchase tax of new energy vehicles will be adjusted from exemption to half - exemption. Export demand may become the main growth point, and the situation of the domestic automobile industry may become a key factor determining the supply - demand relationship of non - ferrous metals [27] 3.4 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.4.1 Global Aluminum Production Increased Slightly, with a Slight Supply Surplus - In 2025, the global energy supply became tight. The global aluminum production increased in the first half of the year and decreased in the second half. China's aluminum production trend was basically consistent with the global trend, and the year - on - year growth rate was higher than the global level. From January to October, global aluminum production increased by 0.58% year - on - year, and China's aluminum production increased by 0.88% year - on - year, with a slight supply surplus [30] 3.4.2 Policies Led to a Significant Decline in Aluminum Exports in 2025, while Imports Remained High - Due to the reduction of Russian aluminum consumption in Europe and the US, China's aluminum import and export have been booming since 2020. In 2025, aluminum imports remained high, but exports were greatly affected by the cancellation of the export tax rebate. From January to October, the total aluminum imports increased by 9.38% year - on - year, and from January to November, aluminum exports decreased by 14.93% year - on - year. It is expected that in 2026, aluminum exports may remain at about 500,000 tons per month [32] 3.4.3 Raw Material Prices Continued to Decline Throughout the Year and Still had Room to Fall in the Future - In 2025, aluminum raw material prices fluctuated significantly. Coal prices first decreased and then increased, caustic soda prices declined, and bauxite prices decreased after a high - level operation. In the coming year, domestic energy prices and supply are likely to remain stable, and bauxite supply will be stable. It is expected that aluminum raw material costs may further decrease, but aluminum prices have strong support at the bottom due to the domestic production capacity ceiling [33] 3.4.4 Low Inventories Supported Aluminum Prices to Some Extent - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory increased significantly at the beginning of the year, decreased in the second quarter, and remained stable in the third and fourth quarters, with a slight decrease compared to the beginning of the year. The alumina inventory remained at a low level, with a small increase recently but still relatively low [35] 3.5 Macroeconomic Hot - spot Analysis 3.5.1 Policies Continued to Take Effect, and the Domestic Economy was Generally Stable - In the Central Economic Work Conference, it was emphasized that in 2026, China should implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and expand domestic demand. In 2025, China's economy remained basically stable. In 2026, the central government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which will support the spot demand for non - ferrous metals. In the future, consumption may become the most important economic support and policy focus in China [39][40][41] 3.5.2 The Economies of Europe and the US were Facing Severe Pressure, and the Fed May Continue to Promote Interest - rate Cuts after the Leadership Change - In the US, the unemployment rate rose in November 2025, and the manufacturing PMI continued to decline. The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025, with a total reduction of 75 basis points. The euro - zone manufacturing PMI also showed a downward trend. In 2026, the US tariff policy may not change much, and the Fed may enter a new interest - rate cut cycle in the second half of the year, which may drive a new round of price increases for non - ferrous metals [42][43] 3.6 Conclusion - In 2026, the aluminum price trend may be affected by the Fed's monetary policy, tariff impacts, the Russia - Ukraine negotiation situation, economic data of major countries, and spot supply and demand. Currently, aluminum prices are at a high level, but downstream demand is not good. If speculative funds withdraw and energy prices decline in the medium - long term, aluminum prices will face pressure. The alumina price has fallen below the cost line, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting industry is restricted by the production capacity ceiling, with high uncertainty in the medium - long - term industrial outlook [44][45][46]

原油年报 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 研究员：黄思源 从业资格证：F03124114 投资分析证：Z0023501 原油年报 2025-12 回顾 2025 年，年初，在关税政策和 OPEC+增产计划的共同作用下，油价走 出一个流畅的下行趋势，年中受到中东局势升级带来的地缘风险，油价出现了 一波急涨，但这场由风险溢价驱动的上涨缺乏基本面支撑。随着局势迅速缓和、 停火协议生效，风险溢价被快速挤出，油价随之大幅回落。进入第三季度，受 到需求旺季的托底，油价并未继续深跌，而是进入横盘整理阶段，然而随着旺 季的结束，市场供应压力持续显现，使得油价中枢持续下行。 展望后市，供需方面，2026 年全球石油供给将维持增长，但增幅或低于 2025 年。虽然 OPEC+在一季度暂停增产，但后续仍有望继续释放产能，巴西、 加拿大等非减产联盟国家产量预计进一步提升，而美国页岩油受投资不足和油 价低迷制约，难有明显增量，此外，地缘局势演变，尤其是俄乌冲突与伊核问 题的走向，将继续扰动原油供给侧。而需求侧受经济增长乏力制约，整体前景 难言乐观，预计 2026 年全球石油需求 ...

12月18日，铂、钯期货延续强劲走势。截至当日午盘收盘，铂期货主力2606合约报542.65元/克，上涨 5.32%；钯期货主力2606合约报476.6元/克，上涨6.99%。12月12日至今，铂、钯期货价格均已涨逾 20%。 键 2606 ▶ ◎ Q < ▼ pd2606 | 期货 | 389.45 391.90 开 389.00 3463 高 持仓 5130 低 386.50 量 日增 -12.00 4.15 1.08% 区间统计 > 2025/12/12 至今涨幅 23.70% 日K (0) 分时 更多, 均线 ▼ 日线 MA5:385.30 10:382.56 20 :-- 30 :-- 筹码 483.39 476.60-> 452.42 421.45 390.48 371.89 352366.30 2025/11/27 2025/12/12 分时> 2025/12/18 昨晚，广期所公告，根据《广州期货交易所风险管理办法》，经研究决定，自2025年12月23日交易时 起，非期货公司会员或者客户在铂期货PT2606、PT2608、PT2610、PT2612合约上单日开仓量分别不得 超过500手，非期货 ...

Core Points - The main focus of Trump's speech was to defend his economic policies and encourage patience among the American public, suggesting that the economy is improving and will soon experience unprecedented prosperity [1][3][4] - The speech comes at a critical time as public support for the government's handling of economic issues has reached a new low, with upcoming midterm elections in 2026 making economic topics crucial for the Republican Party [1][6][8] Economic Policy Summary - Trump emphasized that he inherited a difficult economic situation and claimed significant positive changes have occurred in the past 11 months, including rising worker incomes and a decrease in inflation [3][4] - He highlighted the expected "largest tax refund season in history" in spring 2024, attributing this to tax cuts supported by the White House [4][6] - The speech included claims of a decrease in prices for essential goods like eggs and Thanksgiving turkeys, and he presented charts to support his assertion of an improving economy [4][6] Political Context - Trump's speech was characterized as having a partisan tone, aimed at rebuilding his declining support as polls show only 33% of Americans approve of his economic measures [6][8] - The speech was notably shorter and more focused than his usual style, indicating a shift towards a more structured approach in addressing economic concerns [5][6] - The backdrop of rising inflation and a recent increase in unemployment to 4.6%, the highest in over four years, adds pressure to Trump's economic narrative [6][8] International Relations and Policy Impact - Trump's administration has been active in international affairs, pressuring European nations to increase military spending and providing military aid to Ukraine, which has received mixed reactions from the American public [7][8] - The administration's trade policies, including high tariffs, have caused volatility in the stock market and uncertainty for businesses regarding import costs [7][8]

据环球网：据《今日美国》报道，当地时间17日，美国总统特朗普当晚的全国电视讲话中宣布，将为近 150万美国军人每人发放1776美元的"战士红利"支票。 除了祝美国人民圣诞快乐外，特朗普还提到了他第二任期以来取得的成就，并表示自己正在收拾残局。 【来源：环球网、新华国际】 据美国有线电视新闻网报道，特朗普这次讲话一改往日风格，始终紧盯提词器，快速念完讲稿，语速远 超平时。特朗普讲话前，美国国会参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默在国会山一场新闻发布会上，晒出一张 美国"经济成绩单"，成绩为"F"（不及格）。 编辑：凌山 审核：十月 特朗普表示，这一批奖金将来自关税，由于关税政策，我们赚得比任何人预想得都要多得多。 另据新华国际，美国总统特朗普17日晚对全国发表电视讲话，晒出自己再次就任总统11个月来的"成绩 单"。讲话持续约20分钟。特朗普讲话时，美国社交媒体评论区及网络直播弹幕上频繁出现"撒谎"一 词。 舒默说，特朗普给自己执政打分"A++++"，而实际情况大相径庭。特朗普上任首日就承诺"降低生活成 本"，但现实是成本持续"涨、涨、涨"，特朗普只"活在自己的世界里"。 路透社与益普索集团17日公布的最新民调显示，仅有3 ...

2025年12月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：失业率上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 2 | | 铜：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：高位震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：底部反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：ETF出现明显增量，震荡上行 | 13 | | 钯：上涨弹性显现，继续走强 | 13 | | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 15 | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 15 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 期货研究 商 品 研 究 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 黄金：失业率上行 白银：高位调整 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- ...

金融市场犹如变幻莫测的海洋，时刻涌动着投资与经济政策的波澜，深刻影响着全球经济的走向。在 此，喜娜AI为您呈上昨夜今晨的财经热点新闻，全方位覆盖股市动态、经济数据、企业财务状况以及 政策更新等关键领域，助您精准洞察金融世界的风云变幻，把握市场脉搏。 法国总统马克龙当地时间12月16日在英媒发文称，当前欧盟对华贸易逆差较大，但对中国商品加征关税 或实施配额是"非合作性的应对方式"，继续沿用有引发严重贸易争端的风险。他建议欧盟提高内部竞争 力、完善相关市场、大规模投资技术等，还呼吁对中国在优势领域的投资持开放态度。中方此前也曾表 示希望欧方不将关税武器化。详情>> 海南全岛封关运作启动，多方面影响受关注 12月18日海南全岛封关运作正式启动，封关后海南成"境内关外"区域，可享零关税等优惠。免税购物更 便利，物价长期将平稳，国际医疗、教育资源加速落地。人员、快递进出不受影响，楼市拉动效应温 和。封关带动产业集聚创造就业，但对劳动者素质要求提高，人才政策也进一步优化。详情>> 马克龙警告欧盟对华加征关税有严重风险 瓦轴B官宣主动退市，明起复牌 12月17日晚，瓦轴B发布公告，控股股东瓦轴集团发起以终止其上市地位为目的 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the provocative actions of Taiwan's High City Saimai towards China, which have led to her isolation as allies like the US, Japan, and the G7 remain silent [1] - US politicians express concern over China's military and economic pressure on Japan, urging Trump to reduce tariffs as a show of support [3][4] - The article highlights the unrealistic nature of the request for tariff reductions, given Trump's core policy focus on tariffs [6] Group 2 - High City Saimai's statements on Taiwan were reportedly influenced by US Deputy Secretary of Defense Kahl, who encouraged her to challenge China under the false assurance of US support [8][9] - The US's deployment of an aircraft carrier to the Western Pacific is seen as a strategic move to support High City while maintaining a distance from direct conflict [9] - The article suggests that Japan's reliance on the US for military protection will increase, leading to higher defense spending and more military orders from US arms manufacturers [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. economic landscape, particularly in relation to tariffs and fiscal policy ahead of the midterm elections in 2026 [2][5][30]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Cost of Living Concerns**: The cost of living remains the top issue for voters, with 29% citing it as their primary concern, an increase from 25% prior to the 2024 presidential election [2][5]. - **Political Landscape**: Democrats are perceived to have an advantage in the House for the upcoming midterms, while Republicans maintain a safer majority in the Senate [5][30]. - **Tariff Policy**: - The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which could lead to lower tariff rates [2][7][11]. - A decline in the effective tariff rate is anticipated, with projections indicating a reduction of around 2 percentage points (pp) by the end of 2026 [2][18]. - The administration may seek to replace IEEPA tariffs with tariffs under different authorities, potentially capping rates at 15% [2][12]. - **Fiscal Policy**: - A second fiscal package is considered possible but unlikely due to high hurdles in Congress [30][34]. - Proposed measures include extending health insurance subsidies and additional defense spending, but consensus among Republicans is lacking [30][34][36]. - The potential for a $2000/person tariff rebate has not gained traction due to fiscal concerns and opposition to the tariffs [30][35]. Additional Important Content - **Housing Policy**: Executive actions on housing are likely, focusing on government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with potential adjustments in loan pricing and the introduction of a 50-year mortgage product [3][40]. - **USMCA Review**: The review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026 could lead to lower tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, particularly on products subject to sectoral tariffs [28][30]. - **US-China Relations**: The economic relationship with China is expected to stabilize, with a recent agreement to delay export controls and reduce tariffs from 20% to 10% [29][30]. - **Sectoral Tariffs**: Investigations into sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors may not lead to immediate tariff impositions, as the administration is likely to proceed cautiously [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding U.S. economic policies, particularly in the context of tariffs and fiscal measures leading up to the midterm elections.