Core Insights - The main focus of the article is on the performance of various commodity futures, highlighting significant price movements in specific contracts. Group 1: Commodity Performance - Jujube and crude oil main contracts increased by over 4% [1] - LU fuel oil, ethylene glycol, and styrene rose by more than 2% [1] - P-xylene, short fiber, PTA, glass, methanol, liquefied gas, fuel oil, and asphalt all saw increases of over 1% [1] Group 2: Declines in Other Commodities - Container shipping on the European route dropped by over 4% [1] - Polysilicon prices fell by more than 2% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, with a reference view of low - level oscillation. The coking coal market has a supply - demand stalemate, and the coke market has a weak fundamental situation but is supported by coking coal costs [1][5][6] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For coking coal 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and bullish respectively, with a reference view of low - level oscillation due to the interweaving of long and short factors [1] - For coke 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and bullish respectively, with a reference view of low - level oscillation because of the stalemate between long and short [1] Price and Market Analysis of Coking Coal - On the night of June 18, the main coking coal contract fell slightly by 785 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decline. The latest offer of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 865.0 yuan/ton, a 2.8% week - on - week decline, with a futures warehouse receipt cost of about 834 yuan/ton. The change in market sentiment comes from supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations. However, it will take time to reverse the supply - loose pattern, and the supply pressure may return after July. The marginal positive effect of the Sino - US London economic and trade consultation mechanism on terminal demand is limited, and the key may be the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on international energy prices [5] Price and Market Analysis of Coke - On the night of June 18, the main coke contract opened higher and declined slightly, maintaining a low - level oscillation pattern. After three rounds of price cuts, the coke price was stable this week. The latest offer of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the futures warehouse receipt cost was about 1401 yuan/ton. The coke market has a pattern of both supply and demand decline. Recently, the marginal decline in coking coal production and international events have strengthened the cost support of coke futures, driving the price to stop falling and stabilize [6]

2025-06-19甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic commodity futures opened with the main crude oil contract rising over 2%, while glass increased by more than 1%. Conversely, the shipping index for Europe and multi-crystalline silicon fell by more than 1% [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - The main crude oil contract experienced a rise of over 2% [1] - Glass prices increased by more than 1% [1] - The shipping index for Europe and multi-crystalline silicon both saw declines of over 1% [1]

Core Insights - The main focus of the article is the significant price movements in commodity futures, particularly highlighting the rise in crude oil and various other commodities [1] Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Crude oil main contract increased by over 6% [1] - Other commodities such as paraxylene, PTA, methanol, European shipping, liquefied gas, short fibers, and LU fuel oil rose by more than 3% [1] - Fuel oil, BR rubber, Shanghai silver, aluminum oxide, and ethylene glycol saw increases of over 2% [1] - Polycrystalline silicon experienced a decline of 2% [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-18甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡季， 以及当前国内甲醇开工仍在高位，供需基本面支撑利好仍显不足，买方对 ...

Core Insights - The domestic commodity futures market opened with significant movements, particularly in crude oil, which saw a rise of over 6% [1] - Other commodities such as short fibers, European shipping lines, and methanol also experienced increases of over 2% [1] Group 1 - Crude oil main contract increased by more than 6% [1] - Short fibers, European shipping lines, and methanol rose by over 2% [1]

商品期货收盘，尿素主力合约涨近4%，20号胶、乙二醇、原木、菜籽油、豆二、豆粕、工业硅、棕榈 油涨超1%。原油跌超2%，苯乙烯、沪金、集运欧线、LU燃油、鸡蛋跌超1%。 ...

商品期货收盘，原油主力合约涨超5%，棕榈油、甲醇、尿素、燃料油、原木涨超3%，焦煤、液化气、 豆油、锰硅、BR橡胶、菜籽油、硅铁涨超2%。集运欧线跌超4%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal futures market is influenced by the weather - driven fluctuations of US soybean prices, positive expectations of US bio - energy policies, and rising import cost expectations, resulting in a continuous staged rebound [5]. - The palm oil market is supported by the active procurement of 6 - 8 - month shipments from India and China. Although the EU market demand decline is a drag, the overall oils and fats sector has entered a rebound channel, and domestic palm oil follows the international palm oil price rebound [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating strongly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5] - **Reference View**: Oscillating strongly [5] - **Core Logic**: US soybean futures prices show weather - market fluctuation characteristics and are supported by positive bio - energy policies. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by rising import cost expectations, and with the return of market sentiment, funds are flowing into the soybean market, continuing the staged rebound [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Strong [7] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7] - **Reference View**: Strong [7] - **Core Logic**: International palm oil demand is supported by India and China's procurement, but EU demand decline is a drag. Domestic palm oil inventory is rising with increased purchases. The oils and fats sector is boosted by international oil prices and US bio - fuel policies, and domestic palm oil follows the international price rebound [7].