商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 李卓雅 【贵金属】黄金市场周四小幅回撤，沪金主力合约跌至 784 元/克一线，白银波动 加剧回落至 8814 一线。美联储维持鹰派表达，上调失业率预测同时降低经济预 期，鲍威尔多次强调对于通胀的担忧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in methanol futures prices is primarily driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel, which has led to significant disruptions in the energy supply chain in the Middle East [3][4]. Group 1: Price Movement - Methanol futures have shown strong performance, with the main contract price rising from 2290 CNY/ton on June 12 to 2543 CNY/ton on June 19, marking an increase of 11.05% [2]. - The market is characterized by rapid price increases and significant volatility [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The intensification of the Iran-Israel conflict and attacks on Iranian energy facilities are identified as key factors driving the rise in methanol prices [3]. - Analysts note that the conflict has led to a substantial impact on the Middle Eastern energy supply chain, with Iranian methanol and urea production being forced to reduce output due to natural gas supply interruptions [3]. Group 3: Supply Chain Concerns - The focus of the methanol market is on two main aspects: potential sharp reductions in Iranian methanol supply due to Israeli attacks and the risk of transportation disruptions if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked [4]. - Current unexpected shutdowns of Iranian methanol facilities are being monitored, as the duration of these shutdowns will significantly affect domestic import volumes [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The sustainability of the recent price increase in methanol futures is contingent upon the duration of facility shutdowns in Iran; if these shutdowns last less than a month, import volumes may return to normal by September [4]. - The market is also influenced by the dynamics of inland and East China port arbitrage, as well as the demand situation from downstream factories [4][5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term market conditions have absorbed some geopolitical risks, and if the Iran-Israel conflict does not escalate further, risk premiums may decrease, leading prices to revert to fundamental levels [5]. - In the medium to long term, a higher production-to-sales ratio and low inventory levels are necessary to support methanol prices at elevated levels [5].

Group 1: Core Insights - The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed Iran's failure to comply with nuclear safeguards, leading to an escalation of military conflict between Israel and Iran, marked by airstrikes and missile attacks [1] - The commodity market has shown structural volatility, particularly in energy and precious metals, in response to the geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Energy Market Reactions - Brent crude oil prices surged over 10% from $69.36 to $76.7 per barrel between June 12 and June 18, while WTI crude oil rose approximately 2.27% [2] - Natural gas prices increased significantly due to Israel's closure of the Leviathan gas field, with U.S. natural gas futures rising nearly 8% since the onset of the conflict [2] - Gold prices also rose, driven by safe-haven demand, with New York gold futures increasing over 1.8% and international spot gold prices surpassing $3400 per ounce [2] Group 3: Iran's Role in Global Energy Supply - Iran's oil production averaged 3.307 million barrels per day in early 2025, reflecting a 4.07% increase year-on-year, maintaining a high export level of 1.623 million barrels per day in April [3] - Iran holds the world's second-largest proven natural gas reserves, with the South Pars gas field being a critical asset for both domestic energy security and regional export dynamics [3] Group 4: Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz - Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for global energy, allows it to influence the flow of approximately 18 to 20 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for about 20% of global oil trade [4] - Any potential blockage of the Strait could lead to significant disruptions in global energy logistics, raising concerns about supply chain stability [4] Group 5: Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment - Iran has indicated that it may resort to extreme measures, including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, if its national security is severely threatened, which could heighten market fears [5] - The relationship between Iran and the Houthi movement in Yemen poses additional risks to maritime security, potentially increasing global shipping insurance costs and energy transportation expenses [6]

白宫近期的军事部署动向引发全球能源市场高度关注。美国总统特朗普连续数日公开表态考虑军事选 项，而相关官员披露的潜在打击时间窗口更令市场神经紧绷。作为全球石油供应的"命脉区域"，中东地 区承载着全球三分之一的原油产量，其局势稳定性直接牵动能源市场神经。 智通财经APP获悉，随着中东局势持续紧张，国际原油市场正经历新一轮价格重估。行业观察家指出， 自以色列与伊朗上周爆发直接军事冲突以来，布伦特原油期货价格已隐含约8美元/桶的地缘政治风险溢 价，这一数据源自对九位资深分析师的专项调查。 市场参与者普遍认为，若美国实际介入冲突，该溢价将进一步扩大，但具体幅度仍取决于军事行动的规 模与性质。 当前市场密切监测两大关键节点：全球五分之一原油运输必经的霍尔木兹海峡航运状况，以及伊朗境内 石油基础设施的运转情况。值得注意的是，尽管地区局势升温，但最新航运数据显示伊朗原油出口量不 降反增。 能源巨头壳牌(SHEL.US)首席执行官瓦埃勒·萨万在投资者电话会议中强调，波斯湾航道若遭封锁将引 发"灾难性冲击"，公司已启动多级应急预案。巴克莱银行(BCS.US)能源分析师阿玛普里特·辛格指出， 当前油价尚未完全反映最坏情景："若冲突 ...

6月19日，港股低价油气股走势活跃，中油洁能控股（01759.HK）大涨138.74%，金泰能源控股 （02728.HK）涨52.94%，吉星新能源（03395.HK）涨34.62%，MI能源（01555.HK）涨20.93%。 以伊冲突进一步升级，中东火药桶;局势紧张。据报道，19日凌晨，伊朗对以色列发动新一轮导弹袭 击，而以军在过去24小时内对伊朗发动了三轮大规模空袭。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊发表视频讲话，坚称 伊朗绝不投降。 以伊冲突也导致全球大宗商品市场风云变幻，国际原油价格剧烈波动。上周五，原油价格单日涨幅超 7%，创三年来最大单日涨幅，本周以来，国际油价继续维持强势震荡。 有市场人士指出，目前部分油气股大涨固然吸引了很多眼球，但投资者务必清醒认识其背后潜藏的调整 风险。 值得注意的是，由于以伊冲突对国际原油市场和经济的影响，有分析认为，美国或有足够的理由介入以 伊冲突。知情人士称，美国总统特朗普已批准了对伊朗的攻击计划，但暂不下达最终命令。据悉，目前 美国的航母打击群已前往中东地区，美军也将向中东调派战斗机，并扩大战机部署范围，以加强以伊冲 突期间的防御。 种种迹象表明，国际油价走势未来似乎很难平静。 ...

瑞士央行周四意外将基准利率下调25个基点，延续其自疫情以来的第六次宽松操作。此次调整背后是持 续走弱的通胀数据：5月消费者价格指数同比下滑0.1%，全年通胀预期被大幅下修至0.2%。值得关注的 是，瑞士法郎作为传统避险货币，在特朗普胜选预期升温背景下对美元、欧元持续升值，客观上为进口 商品降价提供了货币条件。 智通财经APP获悉，全球货币政策格局正因欧洲三大央行突如其来的降息动作掀起波澜。在特朗普政府 可能重启全球贸易关税的最后期限逼近之际，瑞士、瑞典、挪威央行在24小时内相继调整利率，这种政 策转向的密集程度与美联储、日本央行等主要央行按兵不动的态势形成鲜明对比。 这种政策转向折射出欧洲货币当局的深层考量。在7月9日美国可能重启全球关税的最后期限阴影下，叠 加乌克兰危机持续发酵与地缘政治风险升温，政策制定者正试图通过前置性宽松对冲潜在经济冲击。 数据显示，本周将有管理全球40%经济的18家央行密集议息，欧洲三大央行的突然转向，与美英日等主 要央行维持利率不变的决定形成政策分野，凸显出不同经济体面对贸易保护主义升温时的差异化应对。 瑞典央行周三的降息决定同样出人意料。尽管该行行长埃里克·塞丁年初曾暗示宽松周期 ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.06.19 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：原油、甲醇仍有向上驱动，焦煤继续承压。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： 日度策略 | | 动。债务、美元、通胀等大周期依旧利好金价。维持金价震荡偏 | 震荡偏强 | 投资咨询： | 投资咨询： | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 强的判断。策略上依托长期均线回调买入，或者继续持有卖出虚 | | Z0014895 | Z0014895 | | | 值看跌期权。金银比高位时，金价若无大幅回调风险，白银价格 | | | | | | 支撑也较强。激进者白银 08 合约多单继续轻仓持有，谨慎者仍建 | | | | | | 议持有卖出虚值看跌期权。 | | | | | | （以上内容仅供参考，不作为操作依据，投资需谨慎。） | | | | | | 供给约束叠加低库存，铝价重心上移 | | | | | | 昨日氧化铝价格继续震荡运行，收于 2900 上方，沪铝早盘 | | | | | | 走势偏强，夜盘小幅低开后震荡运行。宏观方面，昨日陆家嘴论 | | | | | ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 19 日 热点品种 商品 力 涨 幅与增仓 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加 拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协 议谈判陷入僵局，会谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，以色列和 伊朗近期已经将袭击目标从核设施及军事设施扩大至能源设施。另外，近期以色 列和伊朗间的风险有所外溢，中东地缘风险加剧升温，美国石油钻井数量下降幅 度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原油供给压力缓解。需求端，美国非农数据、 CPI 数据好于预期，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议上中美原则上达成协议框架，市 场风险偏好回升，美国进入传统出行旺季， ...

【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 【原油】 | 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月19日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 亚盘时段国际油价震荡，SC08合约涨4.7%表现持续偏强。伊以冲突仍在持续，且美国直接个入的可能性增加。据悉 欧洲官员将与伊朗外长周五在日内瓦举行核谈判,但在美国确认参与前伊朗的能源基础设施及霍尔木兹海峡通行相 关的供应风险仍存。 上周美国DOE原油库存因净出口增加而大幅下降1147.3万桶。原油仍持震荡偏强判断，投资者 仍可继续持有低成本看涨期权应对极端地缘风险。考虑到中东地缘风险升温对中质含硫原油的供应犹动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently facing dual challenges from the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to a complex price movement scenario [1] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the June 18 meeting, aligning with market expectations [3] - Chairman Powell indicated a slower pace of future rate cuts, with a projected reduction of 50 basis points in 2024 and only 25 basis points in 2026 and 2027, which has weakened market expectations for rapid easing [3] - Powell's comments on inflation, particularly regarding the potential impact of Trump's tariff policies, suggest a projected inflation rate of 3% by year-end, which could support gold's anti-inflation properties but also strengthen the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices [3] Trump Tariff Policy - The tariff policy under the Trump administration is a focal point, with Powell warning that tariff costs will gradually be passed on to consumers, as evidenced by a nearly fourfold increase in customs revenue to $23 billion in May [4] - The anticipated transmission of tariffs to retail prices is expected to manifest in the coming months, particularly affecting categories like computers and audiovisual equipment [4] - While inflation expectations driven by tariffs may provide medium-term support for gold prices, the strong dollar and cautious Fed stance limit short-term upside potential [4] Geopolitical Risks - Recent military actions by Israel against Iran have heightened tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about energy supply and supply chain stability [5] - The market is speculating on potential U.S. intervention, which has increased risk aversion, although the dollar has strengthened against other safe-haven currencies [5] - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, particularly regarding Iran's internet control and conflict escalation, continues to provide potential support for gold prices [5] Economic Data Weakness - Recent economic data indicates weakness, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 5,000 to 245,000, but the four-week average reaching its highest level since August 2023, suggesting a weakening labor market [7] - Housing data shows a decline in building permits to a two-year low and housing starts at a five-year low, reflecting the impact of high borrowing costs and rising material prices [7] - Analysts suggest that trends in unemployment claims may signal economic contraction, which could prompt the Fed to adjust monetary policy, potentially providing upward momentum for gold prices [7] Other Precious Metals - In contrast to gold's performance, silver fell by 1.5% to $36.70 per ounce, while platinum rose by 4.3%, reaching its highest level since February 2021 [8] - The movements in silver and platinum are primarily driven by speculative funds, indicating active market sentiment in the precious metals sector, while gold remains more influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors [8] Future Outlook - The gold market is currently in a complex environment with intertwining bullish and bearish factors [9] - Short-term pressures from the Fed's cautious policy and tariff-induced inflation are countered by potential support from geopolitical risks and signs of economic slowdown [9] - Gold prices are expected to oscillate between $3,300 and $3,400 in the short term, awaiting clear catalysts, while medium-term opportunities may arise if inflation continues to rise and the Fed is forced to accelerate rate cuts [9]