【环球网财经综合报道】1月22日，国际贵金属市场在周二凌晨迎来剧烈波动，黄金价格在地缘政治紧张局势和美联 储货币政策不确定性的双重推动下，首次突破每盎司4800美元大关，创下历史新高；而白银价格则在触及历史高位后 回落，呈现宽幅震荡格局。 黄金狂飙突破 4800 美元，避险需求成核心驱动力 据《环球邮报》报道，全球地缘政治形势推动下，黄金价格首次突破每盎司4800美元，铂金创纪录高位，钯金微跌， 白银价格一度触及历史高点。 分析称，白银期货合约的推出以及贵金属市场供需结构的变化是导致价格剧烈波动的原因之一。 尽管短期出现回调，但机构对白银后市依然乐观。ANZ商品策略师Soni Kumari表示："考虑到我们看到的价格动力， 白银涨至三位数看起来是可能的。"不过她也提醒投资者，价格不会单向移动，未来可能会出现价格修正，且市场波 动性可能更高。 高盛一月内两度上调目标价，看涨情绪高涨 市场分析人士指出，全球地缘政治形势的复杂变化是推动金价飙升的主要原因。RJO Futures高级市场策略师Bob Haberkorn表示："市场存在一些担心错过这波交易的风险（FOMO），鉴于全球地缘政治形势，目前黄金和白银价格 的 ...

新华财经北京1月22日电美国总统特朗普在达沃斯宣布撤回对欧洲的关税威胁后，交易员们迅速回补仓 位，10年期美债收益率应声下跌近4BPs。 数据显示，当地时间周三（1月21日），美债市场迎来反弹，各期限收益率普遍下跌。截至尾盘，10年 期美债收益率下跌3.98BPs，报4.2528%；30年期收益率下跌4.24BPs，报4.8765%；对货币政策更敏感的 2年期收益率微幅下跌0.64BP，报3.5908%。此外，2年期和10年期利差收窄3.57BPs至65.79BPs。 近日，市场一度因瑞典最大私人养老基金Alecta抛售大部分美债持仓的消息而承压。然而，随着特朗普 在达沃斯论坛发表讲话，市场情绪发生决定性转变。21日下午进行的130亿美元20年期美债招标结果异 常强劲，中标利率为4.846%，低于市场预期，而投标倍数高达2.86，创下2023年6月以来新高，市场需 求旺盛。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特也试图淡化事件影响，称一些丹麦养老基金宣布计划出售全部美债的"投资 规模微不足道"，并补充说"丹麦持有的美债就像丹麦本身一样无足轻重"。 与此同时，市场对美联储近期货币政策路径的预期趋于稳定，对债市构成了另一支撑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that U.S. inflation may exhibit a "high then low" characteristic in 2026, with the first half being influenced by tariff transmission and tax cuts, and the second half potentially experiencing a deflationary trend [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff Effects on Inflation - Since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," the risk of re-inflation in the U.S. has been manageable, and it has not become a major issue for monetary policy or capital markets [2]. - The inflation effect of tariffs has been systematically lower than expected, with the core inflation driven mainly by core goods while core services continue to cool down [2]. - As of October 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. was only 12.4%, below the theoretical rate of 15.7%, indicating limited room for tariff increases due to various factors [3]. Group 2: Cost Accounting of Tariffs - Companies have been absorbing more tariff costs, which has helped keep inflation pressures manageable. As of September 2025, exporters, importers, and consumers bore 6%, 37%, and 57% of the tariff costs, respectively [4]. - The uncertainty of tariff policies and weakening domestic demand in the U.S. have constrained price increases, with companies delaying price hikes due to excess imports [4]. - By the fourth quarter of 2025, the momentum for companies to pass on tariff costs has increased, with expectations for further transmission in 2026 [4]. Group 3: Future Inflation Risks - The report predicts that if the tariff transmission rate approaches 70%, inflation may show stronger "stickiness," with core PCE year-on-year expected to be 2.8%, 2.6%, and 2.5% under different transmission rate scenarios of 90%, 70%, and 50% respectively by the end of 2026 [5]. - Potential risks beyond tariffs include cyclical and metal inflation on the upside, and productivity improvements and tariff exemptions on the downside [5]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is closely linked to inflation risks, with expectations of a pause in rate cuts in the first half of 2026, followed by 1-2 rate cuts in the second half as deflation begins [5].

综合新华社、央视新闻等报道，美国总统特朗普21日在瑞士达沃斯举办的世界经济论坛年会上发表演讲时表示： "上周我们从委内瑞拉获取了5000万桶原油。" 美国正在大力发展核能。 汽油价格很快就会低于每加仑2美元。 欧洲的"方向不对"。 批评欧洲某些地方已经面目全非了。 格陵兰是北美洲的一部分。正寻求立即就收购格陵兰岛事宜展开谈判。除了美国，没有哪个国家有能力确保格陵兰岛的安全。 批评丹麦在格陵兰岛问题上"忘恩负义"。 格陵兰岛是美国的"核心国家安全利益"。美国并不打算、也不需要通过武力手段解决格陵兰问题。 此外，特朗普当天还表示，美国一直受到北约的不公平对待。另据智通财经报道，特朗普谈北约时还称，美国从不索取任何东西，也从未得到任何东西。 市场方面，现货黄金瞬间短线下挫约40美元，随后又继续上涨，在高位震荡，最新报4849.49美元/盎司。 1月21日晚，美股三大指数高开高走，截至发稿，道指涨418点，纳斯达克指数涨超1%，标普500指数涨0.99%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨，一度涨超2.0%，最新报7750.95点。截至发稿，百度涨7.12%，爱奇艺涨7.03%，万国数据涨5.66%，哔哩哔哩涨5.05%，金 ...

每经编辑｜程鹏 综合新华社、央视新闻等报道，美国总统特朗普21日在瑞士达沃斯举办的世界经济论坛年会上发表演讲时表示： "上周我们从委内瑞拉获取了5000万桶原油。" 美国正在大力发展核能。 汽油价格很快就会低于每加仑2美元。 欧洲的"方向不对"。 批评欧洲某些地方已经面目全非了。 格陵兰是北美洲的一部分。正寻求立即就收购格陵兰岛事宜展开谈判。除了美国，没有哪个国家有能力确保格陵兰岛的安全。 批评丹麦在格陵兰岛问题上"忘恩负义"。 格陵兰岛是美国的"核心国家安全利益"。美国并不打算、也不需要通过武力手段解决格陵兰问题。 此外，特朗普当天还表示，美国一直受到北约的不公平对待。另据智通财经报道，特朗普谈北约时还称，美国从不索取任何东西，也从未得到任何东西。 当地时间1月21日，特朗普在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上发表讲话。图片来源：视觉中国 市场方面，现货黄金瞬间短线下挫约40美元，随后又继续上涨，在高位震荡，最新报4849.49美元/盎司。 1月21日晚，美股三大指数高开高走，截至发稿，道指涨418点，纳斯达克指数涨超1%，标普500指数涨0.99%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨，一度涨超2.0%，最新报7750. ...

强劲的经济增长动力与依然顽固的通胀数据，正在重塑市场对美联储货币政策路径的预期。根据最新调 查显示，美联储在下周的议息会议上或将维持利率不变，且本季度降息的可能性大幅降低，货币宽松窗 口或将推迟至美联储主席鲍威尔今年5月任期结束之后。 据路透1月16日至21日对100位经济学家进行的调查，所有受访者均预计美联储将在1月27日至28日的会 议上将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%的区间。更为关键的是，58%的受访经济学家目前预测整个第一季 度利率都将保持不变，这一预期较上月发生了显著转变，当时多数人曾预计3月至少会有一次降息。 虽然大多数经济学家仍预计今年晚些时候至少会有两次降息，但在短期路径上，强劲的经济基本面并不 支持立即宽松。调查显示，在第一季度之后的前景虽无绝对共识，但微弱多数（100人中的55人）受访 者预计，降息周期最快也要等到鲍威尔5月卸任美联储主席后才会重启。 降息窗口或随领导层更迭开启 鉴于当前的经济数据，部分分析师认为美联储甚至有理由考虑加息，但基准预测仍指向"维持现状"。 LSEG StarMine计算显示，野村证券的高级美国经济学家Jeremy Schwartz是去年预测最准确的分析师 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with a mixed performance, showing a structural differentiation. The lithium carbonate futures limit - up became the market focus, and the precious metals sector was strong, while the coking coal and coke futures led the decline, and most energy - chemical products fell. The overall market fluctuations revolved around the reconstruction of the supply - demand of sub - industries and macro - risk sentiment [14]. - The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool, consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, industrial production rebounded unexpectedly, and the Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, with the interest - rate cut expectation postponed to June [14]. - In China, policies focused on new fields, exports showed unexpected resilience, corporate loans and bond financing in social financing data were stronger than seasonal, but real estate and infrastructure were weak due to seasonality, and there were clear signs of inflation improvement [14]. - In the short term, there is a risk of continued adjustment of risk assets; in the medium term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 20, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4708.6, with a daily decline of 0.5%, a weekly decline of 0.31%, and a monthly increase of 2.37%. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had different price changes and fluctuations [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all showed certain price increases and fluctuations on January 20, 2026 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 99.0423, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and the US dollar mid - price decreased by 63 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 3.42 bp, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield decreased by 0.31 bp [2]. 3.2 Popular Industry Fluctuations - On January 20, 2026, different industries had different price changes and fluctuations. For example, the non - ferrous metals industry had a monthly increase of 12.65%, while the defense and military industry had a daily decline of 3.21% [5]. 3.3 Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - On January 16, 2026, overseas commodities such as energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products had different price changes and fluctuations. For example, NYMEX natural gas had a monthly decline of 16.22%, and COMEX silver had a monthly increase of 26.72% [8]. 3.4 Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - Various domestic commodities such as crude oil, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemical products, and agricultural products had different price changes and fluctuations on January 20, 2026. For example, lithium carbonate had a daily increase of 8.93% and a monthly increase of 31.86% [11]. 3.5 Macro - Essentials - **Today's Market**: The domestic commodity futures market closed with a mixed performance. The rise of lithium carbonate was driven by the rise of energy - storage demand and the reversal of the supply - demand pattern, and precious metals were supported by geopolitical risks [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy expanded moderately, inflation cooled, consumption was "K - shaped", industrial production rebounded, and the Fed postponed the interest - rate cut expectation to June [14]. - **Domestic Macro**: Chinese policies focused on new fields, exports were resilient, social financing data showed strong corporate financing, but real estate and infrastructure were weak, and there were clear signs of inflation improvement [14]. - **Asset Views**: The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates in January, and the first interest - rate cut is postponed to June. Short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, while mid - term long positions in some assets are recommended [14]. 3.6 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, waiting for incremental funds; stock index options and treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [15]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as the US fundamentals, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts [15]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe is expected to be volatile, focusing on factors such as shipping company's resumption of flights and cargo volume [15]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most basic metals are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to rise in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to decline in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policies [18]. - **Agriculture**: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to rise or decline in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policies [18].

1月20日，国际金价在避险需求推动下再度刷新历史新高，伦敦金现货价格、COMEX黄金期货价格双 双突破4700美元/盎司。2026年以来，国际贵金属市场延续强势格局，铜价亦在高位运行。 随着全球宏观不确定性加剧，贵金属及基本金属的市场走势备受关注。瑞银贵金属策略师Joni Teves日 前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，多元化配置需求是本轮金价上行的核心驱动力，机构投资者、零 售投资者及各国央行均在增持黄金以应对宏观不确定性。她预计金价上半年仍有上攻动能，若市场对美 联储独立性的担忧持续升温，金价在上半年有望冲击5000美元/盎司关口。白银则受益于金价上涨的带 动及自身供需缺口收窄，今年或挑战100美元/盎司。铜市场在能源转型需求拉动下，供需格局趋紧，价 格中枢有望抬升。 ● 本报记者葛瑶 金价后市仍有上涨空间 Teves表示，黄金市场正经历结构性变化，多元化配置已成为推动金价上涨的核心动力。这一趋势体现 在机构投资者、零售投资者和官方部门等各类需求主体。在宏观环境充满不确定性、政策可预测性下降 的当下，投资者迫切需要分散风险，而黄金正是这一趋势的最大受益者。 从价格走势看，瑞银对今年年末金价的基准预测为45 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, precious metals, Brent crude oil, and ChiNext Index led the gains, showing a pattern of rapid upward movement in the first half - week and oscillatory decline in the second half. The short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [15]. - For different sectors and varieties, the short - term judgments are mainly "oscillatory", with some showing "oscillatory upward" or "oscillatory downward" trends [16][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures price was 4728.6, with a daily increase of 0.17, a weekly increase of 0.11, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.8. The SSE 50 futures price was 3077.6, with a daily decrease of 0.08, a weekly decrease of 0.22, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.74. The CSI 500 futures price was 8266, with a daily increase of 1.11, a weekly increase of 0.68, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 12.27. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8186.6, with a daily increase of 0.49, a weekly increase of 0.09, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 10.09 [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures price was 102.4, with no daily change, no weekly change, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.05. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures price was 105.785, with a daily decrease of 0.03, a weekly decrease of 0.02, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.02. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures price was 108.04, with a daily decrease of 0.02, a weekly decrease of 0.02, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.17. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures price was 110.92, with a daily decrease of 0.23, a weekly decrease of 0.22, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.44 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 99.3691, with a daily increase of 0.03, a weekly increase of 0.23, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.12. The US dollar mid - price was 6.9703 pips, with a daily increase of 32, a weekly decrease of 80, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 187 [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.443 bp, with a daily decrease of 5.94, a weekly decrease of 2.97, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 53.91. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 1.8424 bp, with a daily decrease of 1.2, a weekly decrease of 3.58, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.49. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.24 bp, with a daily increase of 7 [2]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - Industries such as national defense and military industry, basic chemicals, and consumer services had relatively high daily and weekly increases, while industries like computer, telecommunications, and non - banking finance had declines [5]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 59.22, with a daily increase of 0.08, a weekly increase of 0.75, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 3.15. ICE Brent crude oil price was 64.2, with a daily increase of 0.69, a weekly increase of 1.87, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 5.4. NYMEX natural gas price was 3.109, with a daily decrease of 1.11, a weekly decrease of 1.02, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 16.22. ICE UK natural gas price was 98.39, with a daily increase of 13.42, a weekly increase of 33.88, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 31.87 [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold price was 4601.1, with a daily decrease of 0.49, a weekly increase of 1.83, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 6.21. COMEX silver price was 89.945, with a daily decrease of 2.6, a weekly increase of 12.73, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 26.72 [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper price was 12803, with a daily decrease of 2.31, a weekly decrease of 1.5, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.45. LME aluminum price was 3134, with a daily decrease of 1.06, a weekly decrease of 0.06, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 4.57. LME zinc price was 3209, with a daily decrease of 3.18, a weekly increase of 1.76, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.66 [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybean price was 1056.25, with a daily increase of 0.31, a weekly decrease of 0.61, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.86. CBOT soybean oil price was 52.51, with a daily decrease of 0.87, no weekly change, a monthly decrease of 3.24, and a quarterly and annual increase of 8.16 [8]. Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil price was 439.25, with a daily and weekly decrease of 0.22 and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.47. Fuel oil price was 2526.6, with a daily and weekly increase of 0.38 and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 3.11 [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper price was 101196.42, with a daily and weekly increase of 0.32 and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.94. Aluminum price was affected by the potential shutdown of Mozal aluminum plant, with the price oscillating at a high level [12]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel prices such as rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends, with rebar price decreasing and hot - rolled coil price having a certain increase in some periods. Iron ore price increased slightly, and coke and coking coal prices also had their own trends [12]. - **Agricultural Products**: Prices of products such as soybeans, soybean oil, and palm oil had different degrees of fluctuations [12]. Macro Summary - **Today's Market**: This week, precious metals, Brent crude oil, and ChiNext Index led the gains, showing a pattern of rapid upward movement in the first half - week and oscillatory decline in the second half. The first half - week was driven by factors such as the weakening of the Fed's independence and better - than - expected US inflation data, while the second half - week was dragged down by factors such as the alleviation of concerns about key mineral tariffs, the easing of the US - Iran geopolitical situation, and the strengthening of the US dollar due to initial jobless claims data [15]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, consumer spending showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, and industrial production rebounded unexpectedly. The Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the interest rate cut expectation was postponed to June [15]. - **Domestic Macro**: Policy support focused on new fields, exports showed unexpected resilience, social financing data showed strong corporate loan and bond financing, and inflation improvement clues were clear [15]. - **Asset Views**: The short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [15]. Viewpoints Summary - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to oscillate upward, stock index options to oscillate, and Treasury bond futures to oscillate [16]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate upward [16]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Black Building Materials**: Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to oscillate [16]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal products are expected to oscillate, with some showing oscillatory upward trends [16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to oscillate, with some showing oscillatory downward trends [18]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show different trends, with some oscillating upward, some oscillating downward, and most oscillating [18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in tin and nickel prices in the Yangtze spot market is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply-demand dynamics, and regulatory actions, leading to increased market divergence regarding future trends [1] Macroeconomic Pressure - The US dollar index remains strong around 99.40, nearing a six-week high, which is a key factor suppressing non-ferrous metal prices [2] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy have solidified, with a 95% probability of maintaining rates in January and a 78.4% probability in March, pushing back rate cut expectations to mid-year [2] Supply and Demand Logic - Tin prices are pressured by increased supply expectations from Myanmar and Indonesia, with imports from Myanmar reaching 7,190 tons in November, alleviating previous supply tightness [3] - Demand for tin is weakening as the "export window" for photovoltaic solder approaches its end, and speculative demand in AI and semiconductor sectors is also declining [3] - Nickel prices are affected by high inventory levels, with LME nickel stocks rising to 285,732 tons, and weak demand from the electric vehicle sector, which saw a 38% year-on-year drop in retail sales in early January [3] Industry Chain Impact - Global visible tin inventories are at approximately 12,000 tons, down over 70% from historical highs, but supply improvements are evident with increased mining quotas expected from Indonesia [4] - The nickel industry faces challenges with overcapacity in smelting and weak demand from the stainless steel and electric vehicle sectors, leading to significant operational pressures across the supply chain [5] Corporate Dynamics - Leading companies like Yunnan Tin Company reported a 35.99% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but current price declines may impact short-term profitability [6] - The second-largest tin producer, Xinyi Silver Tin, is expanding its capacity and plans to increase tin concentrate production to 20,000 tons per year through acquisitions [6] - Nickel industry leader Tsingshan Group is well-positioned due to its extensive operations in Indonesia, with ongoing projects in high-grade nickel and battery-grade nickel expected to benefit from future demand recovery [6] Outlook and Strategy - Analysts predict that tin and nickel prices will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term, with tin prices likely oscillating between 370,000 and 400,000 yuan per ton [7] - Nickel prices are expected to remain under pressure, with key support around 141,000 yuan per ton, and potential declines to 140,000 yuan if demand does not improve [7] - Investors are advised to lower leverage and control positions, focusing on leading companies with resource advantages and cost benefits while avoiding speculative trades [8]