Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the U.S. economy, particularly focusing on the labor market, inflation, and the impact of tariffs and trade negotiations with China. [1][6][17] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Labor Market Data Revision**: The U.S. labor market data was significantly revised downwards, with July's job additions at 73,000 and a downward revision of 258,000 for the previous two months, leading to an average of only 35,000 jobs added over the last three months, the largest downward revision in decades. [2][3] 2. **Unemployment Rate**: The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, indicating a potential slowdown in job creation despite the rate remaining relatively stable compared to last year. [2][3] 3. **GDP Growth**: The second quarter GDP growth rate was 3%, consistent with last year, but the internal demand growth rate fell to 1.2%, down from 2.4% last year, indicating weakening demand. [5] 4. **Impact of Tariffs**: New tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have raised the effective tax rate from 10% to 20.5%, leading to increased inflationary pressures as companies may pass on costs to consumers. [11][12] 5. **Inflation Expectations**: Structural inflation is expected to rise in the second half of the year, driven by core commodity price increases due to tariffs, while rent and service prices remain moderate. [13] 6. **Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve may need to adjust its monetary policy in response to the labor market's downturn and inflation pressures, with a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in September from 40% to 88%. [9][16] 7. **Trade Negotiations with China**: Current U.S.-China trade negotiations have not yielded substantial results, with ongoing challenges related to market access, energy purchases, and investment. [17][24] 8. **Sector-Specific Impacts**: Different sectors are affected variably by tariffs; technology companies are performing well, while manufacturing firms like General Motors and Ford are experiencing losses. [14][15] 9. **Geopolitical Factors**: The complexity of U.S.-China relations is compounded by geopolitical factors, including the U.S. stance on Russia amid the Ukraine conflict, which may further complicate trade negotiations. [24][25] Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Labor Participation Rate**: The labor participation rate has decreased from 62.7% last year to 62.2% this year, indicating a decline in labor supply, particularly among foreign-born populations. [3][4] - **Market Sentiment**: Investor sentiment is cautious due to increased geopolitical risks and seasonal factors, with August and September typically being weaker months for the stock market. [26][27] - **Potential Cooperation Areas**: There are suggestions for exploring more cooperative areas between the U.S. and China, such as increased purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds by China, although feasibility remains uncertain. [20][21]

当地时间7月30日，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议后，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在。这虽然和美国总统特朗普长期以来的降息要求背道而 驰，但符合市场的基本预期。 然而值得注意的是，在本次美联储会议上，首次有2名理事在利率决议中投反对票，这是1993年以来首次有两名美联储理事在会议中投下反对票。 对此，美国彭博社在8月4日发布了一篇纽约联邦储备银行前行长（美联储三号人物）、现任瑞士银行非执行董事、比尔·达德利的文章称：两位理事的反对 不会影响到美联储的政策和履职；而这两位理事之所以投下反对票，是因为一位"要报恩"，一位"想上位"。 比尔·达德利彭博社 达德利认为，尽管特朗普在过去的很长一段时间中都不断通过媒体等方式向美联储主席鲍威尔施加压力，要求美联储降息，但"特朗普对鲍威尔几乎没有影 响力"。根据美国最高法院的规定，除非"有正当理由"，否则美联储主席不能被直接解职，而特朗普提不出这样的理由，并且鲍威尔卸任后也可能继续担任 美联储理事。因此，美联储的控制权被牢牢地控制在鲍威尔手中。 此前包括彭博社在内的多家媒体都在报道中强调，这是"1993年以来首次有两名美联储理事在会议中投下反对票"。达德利也同意，一般在 ...

Group 1 - The average tariff rate in the US increased to 18.3% after August 1, down approximately 4 percentage points from 22.5% on April 2 [62][63] - The new tariff rates for countries with trade agreements range from 10% to 20%, while those for countries with trade deficits range from 25% to 41% [62][63] - Ongoing negotiations between the US and other countries, including India, aim to finalize a phase one agreement by fall 2025, focusing on agricultural products, medical devices, and digital trade tariffs [62] Group 2 - Developed market indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.4% and the French CAC40 down 3.7% [2][3] - Emerging market indices also saw declines, with the South Korean Composite Index down 2.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index down 2.3% [3] - The majority of sectors within the S&P 500 fell, with materials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and financials down 5.4%, 4.5%, 3.9%, and 3.8% respectively [6] Group 3 - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased by 17.0 basis points to 4.2% [16] - The yield on 10-year bonds in other developed markets also fell, with Germany at 2.8% and Japan at 1.6% [16] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly declined, with Turkey down 21.0 basis points to 29.3% and South Africa down 24.0 basis points to 9.6% [22] Group 4 - The US dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, while most other currencies depreciated against the dollar [27] - The offshore Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar [39] - Major emerging market currencies also saw depreciation, with the Mexican peso down 1.6% and the Philippine peso down 1.0% [27] Group 5 - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil rising 3.3% to $67.3 per barrel, while coking coal prices fell 13.2% to 1093 yuan per ton [45] - Precious metals experienced varied performance, with COMEX gold up 0.9% to $3360.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell 3.4% to $36.8 per ounce [52]

Core Viewpoint - The latest U.S. non-farm employment data for July significantly underperformed expectations and was subject to substantial revisions, raising concerns about the economy's resilience against tariff impacts [1][2] Economic Indicators - July's non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, falling short of the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000, marking the largest adjustment since June 2020 [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, above the expected 4.2% and the previous value of 4.117%, the highest since November 2021 [1] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July recorded at 48, down from 49.5, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [3] - The GDP growth for Q2 2025 is projected at an annualized rate of 3.0%, but the Private Domestic Final Purchases (PDFP) only grew by 1.2%, reflecting a decline in internal growth momentum [3] Market Reactions - Following the disappointing employment data, U.S. stock markets declined, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices falling by 2.36% and 2.17%, respectively [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 17.2 basis points to 4.216%, while the 2-year yield fell by 24.2 basis points to 3.682% [1] Monetary Policy Insights - The July FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-2 vote to maintain the policy rate at 4.25-4.5%, with dissenting votes advocating for a rate cut [4] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that while the labor market is balanced, inflation remains a concern, necessitating a restrictive policy stance [4] - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler may provide an opportunity for President Trump to appoint a new member, potentially influencing future monetary policy [4]

上周公布的经济数据出现了一些警示信号，印证了美国企业高管和消费者今年来一直所担忧的经济状 况。 上周五公布的非农就业数据表明，当前美国劳动力市场的状况比此前报告的情况要糟糕得多。经通胀调 整后的消费者支出(约占美国经济活动的三分之二)在今年上半年出现了下降，而美联储青睐的通胀指标 则在 6 月份有所回升。 智通财经APP获悉，富国银行的高级经济学家Sarah House表示："美国经济正'艰难地维持着自身的稳 定'。企业与消费者一直面临着一系列经济政策的急剧变化、不断攀升的通胀以及仍具一定紧缩性的货 币政策。这种组合所引发的经济停滞之担忧，如今不幸地开始应验。" 企业与消费者受冲击 美国许多企业已暂停投资和招聘，因为它们正试图弄清楚特朗普经济政策(其中主要就是关税政策)所带 来的影响究竟会如何。房地产市场刚刚经历了 13 年来最糟糕的春季销售季。而消费者由于债务不断增 加，已减少了对非必需品的消费。 EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco表示："随着物价上涨，企业和消费者越来越难以消费和投资， 这种挣扎很可能会持续下去。" 话虽如此，美国经济预计仍将稳步发展，但增速会低于过去几年的水平。 ...

Group 1 - The dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director, Erica McEntyre, by President Trump due to dissatisfaction with employment data has sparked widespread criticism and raised concerns about the reliability of government statistics [1][3][4] - The July employment report indicated a weak job growth of only 73,000 new jobs, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data, reflecting the impact of Trump's economic policies [3][5] - Economic experts warn that the lack of trust in government data could lead to poor economic decision-making, as accurate data is crucial for policymakers and the public [5][6][7] Group 2 - The high inflation rate, with consumer prices rising by 2.6% and core prices by 2.8% from the second half of last year to the first half of this year, is exacerbated by Trump's tariff policies, which have increased import prices [5][6] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade and immigration policies has led to stagnation in business decisions, including hiring, with only the healthcare sector showing significant job growth [6][7] - The economic divide is widening, with large banks and tech companies reporting substantial profit growth while consumer-facing companies struggle with rising costs, indicating a potential slowdown in economic growth [6][7]

Economic Conditions - Recent economic data indicates that warning signs are flashing, with a weaker labor market and declining consumer spending in the first half of the year [1] - The average job growth over the past three months is only 35,000, marking the worst performance since the pandemic [1][4] - Many companies are postponing investment and hiring plans due to uncertainty surrounding economic policies, particularly tariffs [2] Consumer Spending - Companies like Procter & Gamble have noted a slowdown in consumer spending trends, attributed to consumer expectations rather than current realities [3] - Rising prices for imported furniture and appliances suggest that companies are beginning to pass higher tariff costs onto consumers [3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The recent employment data has raised questions about the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, increasing pressure on officials to lower rates before the economy cools excessively [3][5] - Following the employment report, the two-year U.S. Treasury prices surged, while the S&P 500 index saw a significant decline [5] Economic Growth Projections - Despite current struggles, the U.S. economy is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace, with forecasts of 1.5% growth for this year and 1.7% for 2026 [2]

上周五，美国劳工统计局甩出了一份重量级的数据：7月份非农就业新增只有7.3万人。这数字一出，华尔街直接变脸。 你说这是什么信号？一个很明确的信号：美国劳动力市场，不是"逐渐降温"，是直接急转直下。这节奏快得连鲍威尔可能都要翻翻日历，看看是不是 提前进入了经济衰退通道。 再来看看失业率，表面看还行，7月失业率从4.1%升到4.2%，刚好符合市场预期。但配合着劳动参与率和就业人口比率，你会发现，这份"稳定"背后 并不光鲜。 各位朋友，今天我们来聊聊美国劳动力市场，最近是真的"跌了个大跟头"。 这可是9个月来的最低水平，比市场预期的10.4万还少了将近三成。简直是就业市场直接"踩了刹车"，连ABS都冒烟了。 但你以为这只是7月表现不好？不，别急，劳工统计局顺手还把5月和6月的数据也"回炉"了一下。 5月从原本的14.4万直接砍到1.9万；6月也从14.7万砍到1.4万。两个月合起来就少了25.8万就业岗位，这已经不是修正了，这是"扒皮"。 消息一出，市场直接变脸。交易员反应极快，重新完全定价了美联储10月降息的可能性。美元短线跳水超40点，现在在99.78附近游荡，美股期货也跟 着往下走，纳指期货跌了1.1%。 十 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the aluminum price is expected to adjust within a short - term range [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices. The view is that it will run in a volatile and consolidating manner [4] Aluminum Ingots - In July 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,261 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease from the previous period and a 5.8% decrease year - on - year. In August, alumina's support for costs will be evident [4] - In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase month - on - month, and the demand for bauxite will grow. The supply of bauxite from Guinea is expected to decline starting in August, and the inventory accumulation rate of bauxite in China is expected to slow down, with the inventory likely to reach an inflection point from August to September [4] - In July, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.05% year - on - year and 3.11% month - on - month. On August 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 564,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last Thursday and 31,000 tons from last Monday [4] - Currently in the off - season, inventory is accumulating, and the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upside space. The short - term aluminum price is expected to move within a range, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [5]

Economic Outlook - The recent employment report indicates that the U.S. economy is heading towards a recession, with various economic indicators signaling a downturn [1] - Consumer spending is stagnating, construction and manufacturing sectors are contracting, and employment is expected to decline [1][2] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in responding to rising inflation, which complicates potential interventions [1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 last month, significantly below the expected 110,000, with previous months' data also revised downwards [2] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months is only 35,000, indicating a slowdown in employment growth [2] - Despite a stable unemployment rate around 4% to 4.2%, the labor force participation rate is declining due to reduced foreign-born labor [3] Labor Market Dynamics - The reduction in foreign-born labor by 1.2 million over the past six months is attributed to restrictive immigration policies, leading to a stagnation in labor supply [3] - There is a hiring freeze across the economy, particularly affecting new graduates, which suggests a significant drop in the "neutral job growth" needed to maintain stable unemployment [3] - Morgan Stanley economists have raised alarms about potential recession, noting that private sector job growth has averaged only 52,000 per month over the past three months [3][4] Economic Indicators - The second quarter GDP showed unexpected growth, but domestic final demand indicators suggest a slowdown [2] - Core inflation accelerated to 2.8%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, while consumer spending growth in June fell short of expectations [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDP tracking model predicts a slowdown in economic growth from 3% in the second quarter to 2.1% in the third quarter [2]