Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts since September 2025[1] - The decision was passed with a 10-2 vote, with dissenting votes from Waller and Milan advocating for a 25 basis point cut[2] Economic Outlook - The Fed's view on the economy shifted from "moderate expansion" to "steady expansion," indicating a more stable economic outlook[2] - The statement regarding employment risks was softened, suggesting signs of stabilization in the labor market[2] Market Reactions - Following the meeting, U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold prices rose, while the U.S. dollar index fell[3] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.1%, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones increased by 0.17% and 0.02%, respectively[3] Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts were slightly adjusted, with the implied probability of a March 2026 cut remaining below 20%[3] - The probability of a June rate cut decreased from 83% to 74%, with an annual expectation of 1.9 cuts in 2026, likely resulting in two cuts[3] Future Considerations - The Fed's focus is shifting towards inflation, with reduced urgency for further easing as economic momentum improves[4] - The upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair and the potential impact on monetary policy independence are critical factors to watch[4]

---趋势判断---- 基本面： 周四 （01月29日）白银早盘连续高位震荡反弹，突破考虑追涨布局方案，最新报117.38美元/盎司，避险情绪高涨：政治风云变幻：白银与铂金的同步狂 欢：黄金暴涨现货白银也紧随其后，周三收涨4.22%至116.69美元，周四早盘截止08:00，最高触及119.24美元，再度刷新历史高点，涨幅约2.2%。白银今年 以来涨幅逾60%，远超黄金，但渣打银行分析师在报告中警告，多项白银指标显示银价短期内可能面临回调。这表明贵金属市场整体处于高热状态，但银价 的波动性可能更大，投资者需警惕潜在调整。地缘政治风暴：美伊冲突升级成金价最大推手地缘政治紧张无疑是本轮金价暴涨的核心驱动力，特别是美国与 伊朗之间的剑拔弩张，让市场充斥着战争阴霾。担忧美国打击伊朗的传闻不断发酵，推动避险买盘持续涌入。 土耳其外交部长费丹与伊朗外长阿拉格齐在24小时内两次通电话，重点讨论了缓解当前地区紧张局势的相关努力。在公开表态中，费丹明确表示再次发动战 争是错误的，他指出针对伊朗采取军事行动不仅无法解决问题，反而会使地区陷入更深层次的不稳定。费丹披露，伊朗方面已准备好就核问题重新启动谈 判，并向美方提出建议，采取 ...

当地时间1月28日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75%之 间。 当天下午，在货币政策会议结束后的记者会上，美联储主席鲍威尔被问及对其继任者有何建议时，叹气耸肩秒变表情包，引发现场笑声。鲍威尔回答 说："不要卷入选举政治。"他强调要致力于维护美联储的独立性。 鲍威尔将于5月结束美联储主席任期。他是美国总统特朗普在第一任期时任命的，不过因货币政策长期遭特朗普公开指责。去年再度就任后，特朗普曾多 次尝试干涉美联储货币政策决议。鲍威尔目前还因美联储大楼翻修项目遭刑事调查。 据美国财长贝森特当地时间28日透露，特朗普提名的美联储新任主席人选可能在未来一周左右揭晓。 来源 ：看看新闻 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% during the January 2026 FOMC meeting, marking the first pause in rate cuts since September 2025[3] - The FOMC's decision was anticipated by the market, with two officials voting against the pause, advocating for a 25 basis point cut[3] - The Fed's statement indicated a shift to a more hawkish tone, describing economic growth as "solid" compared to the previous "moderate" assessment[4] Group 2: Economic Assessments - The Fed noted that while employment growth remained low, the unemployment rate showed signs of stabilization, suggesting reduced downside risks in the labor market[4] - Inflation was described as "somewhat elevated," indicating that the Fed is cautious but not overly aggressive in its monetary policy approach[4] - Powell expressed optimism about rising productivity, linking it to the current economic growth despite a weakening labor market[6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, the market's pricing for future rate cuts remained largely unchanged, with a 47.5% probability for a rate cut by June 2026[10] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.26%, while the 2-year yield increased by 3 basis points to 3.56%[10] - The U.S. dollar index rebounded to 96.35, reflecting market adjustments to the Fed's stance[10] Group 4: Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector outperformed, with hardware stocks showing a 2.8 percentage point advantage over software stocks, indicating a preference for hardware recovery logic[12] - Cyclical sectors such as airlines and restaurants performed better than the broader market, while defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals lagged[12] - Precious metals continued to rise despite a stabilizing dollar, reflecting a shift in market demand for physical assets[12]

鲍威尔表示，过去一年关税上涨对消费价格的影响已基本传导完毕，"我们预计，关税对商品价格的影 响将达到峰值，然后开始下降，前提是没有新的重大关税上调措施出台，这也是我们预计今年将会看到 的情况。"他表示，美国今年通胀表现大致符合预期，但就任何进一步宽松政策的时间或节奏而言，美 联储还没有做出任何决定。 鲍威尔还表示，他和美联储其他官员致力于维护美联储的独立性。他还对上周出席最高法院的口头辩论 表示，此案"或许是美联储113年历史上最重要的法律案件"，"我仔细考虑后认为，如果我不出席，可能 很难解释清楚原因。" 此外，美国财长贝森特当天表示，美国总统特朗普提名的美联储主席人选可能在一周左右内揭晓。 特朗普：将很快宣布新的美联储主席人选 当地时间1月27日，美国总统特朗普在爱荷华州公开讲话中再次抨击美联储主席鲍威尔，称其是"一位糟 糕的美联储主席"。 当地时间1月28日下午2点（北京时间1月29日凌晨3点），美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将 联邦基金利率目标区间保持在3.5%至3.75%不变，该利率决议符合市场预期。 美联储决议公布后，美元指数大幅拉升，日内一度大涨超1%。美股三大指数波动不大，截至收盘，道 ...

2026年01月29日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周三贵金属夜盘走强，伦敦金逼近 5500 美元/盎司，伦敦银逼近 120 美元/盎司。 基本面：美联储如期暂停降息，暗示不急行动，但美联储主席人选沃勒支持再降 25 基点；鲍威尔表示加息并 非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设，关税通胀预计今年年中消退；贝森特称美国一贯奉行强美元政策，"绝对 不会"干预汇市支撑日元；日本周三拍卖的 40 年期国债投标倍数达到 2.76 倍，创下自去年 3 月以来的最高 水平，拍卖结果公布后 40 年期国债收益率下跌 2 个基点至 3.915%。国内黄金 ETF 大幅流入 5 吨，COMEX 黄金库存为 1115.8 吨，-2 吨；上期所黄金库存为 103.0 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1086.5 吨， 维持不变；COMEX 白银库存为 12803 吨，-107.7 吨；上期所白银库存为 508 吨，-35.9 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15636 吨，-211 吨；金交所白银上周库存 504.5 吨，-1 吨；伦敦 12 月末白银库 ...

据路透社28日报道，在美联储公布最新货币政策会议后的例行记者会上，美联储主席鲍威尔回避了记者 关于他在美联储的任职前景及特朗普政府对其启动刑事调查的相关提问，但他向继任者提出了坦率建 议。 原标题:美联储主席鲍威尔向继任者提出建议：远离选举政治 鲍威尔表示："远离选举政治，不要被卷入选举政治。千万别这么做。" 据此前报道，特朗普自开启第二任期以来，一直敦促美联储降息。此前，白宫以及特朗普政府内阁官员 以美联储总部大楼翻新工程严重超预算为由，多次施压鲍威尔。鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于5月届 满。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts, reflecting a more optimistic view on the economy, with changes in language indicating stability in the labor market and economic activity [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts aligns with a more optimistic economic outlook, removing previous language about rising risks in employment [3]. - The voting dynamics within the Federal Reserve show a split, with some members supporting a 25 basis point cut, indicating ongoing debates about monetary policy direction [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity is described as expanding steadily, with consumer spending remaining resilient and business investments continuing to grow, despite some weakness in the real estate sector [4]. - Employment risks are perceived to be decreasing, with signs of stabilization in labor market indicators, although recent non-farm payroll data shows a decline in job numbers [4]. Group 3: Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation remains slightly above the long-term target of 2%, with commodity inflation rising and service sector deflation continuing, suggesting a potential end to tariff-induced inflation [5]. - The Federal Reserve's policy rate is considered to be at a favorable position, allowing for flexibility in response to upcoming data and changing economic conditions [5][6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, gold prices surged, while U.S. stock indices showed slight increases and U.S. Treasury yields experienced minor rises [7]. - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices showed minimal fluctuations, indicating a cautious market response to the Fed's decision [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% amid ongoing economic uncertainties and high inflation levels [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Employment growth remains low, and the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization [3]. - Inflation levels are still high, prompting the Federal Reserve to focus on achieving maximum employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2% [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Decision - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was made with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against, with dissenting votes from Governors Waller and Milan who advocated for a 25 basis point cut [3]. - Prior to this decision, the market widely anticipated that the Federal Reserve would maintain the interest rate during the policy meeting, following three consecutive rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, which aligns with market expectations, leading to significant movements in the precious metals market and mixed performance in U.S. stock indices [5][21]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was supported by 10 out of 12 committee members, with only two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut [5]. - Economic indicators suggest that U.S. economic activity is expanding steadily, but uncertainties regarding the economic outlook remain high, with ongoing concerns about inflation and employment growth [5][21]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, gold prices surged, reaching a new high of over $5400 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by more than 10% [2][15]. - The Dow Jones increased by 0.02%, while the S&P 500 decreased by 0.01%, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.17%, indicating a mixed performance among major U.S. stock indices [6]. Group 3: Technology Sector Performance - Major technology stocks showed varied performance, with the Nasdaq's seven tech giants index rising by 0.19%. Notable movements included Nvidia up by 1.59% and Google and Microsoft increasing by 0.38% and 0.22%, respectively, while Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla experienced declines [8][10]. - Microsoft reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $81.27 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, but its stock fell over 7% post-announcement before recovering [10]. - Meta's Q4 FY2025 revenue reached $59.89 billion, surpassing market estimates, leading to a stock increase of over 10% after hours [10]. Group 4: Commodity Prices - International oil prices rose, with light crude oil futures increasing by $0.82 to $63.21 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures up by $0.83 to $68.40 per barrel [19]. - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with gold and silver prices rising sharply following the Fed's decision, indicating a strong market reaction to monetary policy [15][17].