Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a balanced monetary policy that supports economic growth while managing risks, with a focus on both short-term and long-term objectives [1][2][5]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The PBOC's report outlines a strategy to balance short-term and long-term goals, stabilize growth while preventing risks, and ensure the health of the banking system [1][4][5]. - The report highlights the importance of macroeconomic policy coordination to achieve a synergistic effect in supporting growth and structural adjustments [5]. Economic Indicators - As of September 2025, the total social financing stock and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 270.4 trillion yuan [3]. - The cost of social financing remains low, with new corporate and personal housing loan rates decreasing by approximately 40 and 25 basis points year-on-year, respectively [3]. Loan Rate and Risk Pricing - The PBOC stresses that corporate financing rates should not fall below government bond yields, as this contradicts risk pricing principles and is unsustainable [7][10]. - The report indicates that the PBOC has been urging banks not to issue loans with post-tax rates lower than the yields of government bonds of the same maturity [9][10]. Financial Market Dynamics - The report discusses the need to address the misalignment of interest rates in the financial market, which has been influenced by factors such as liquidity conditions and competitive pressures among banks [8]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy by ensuring a reasonable relationship between various interest rates, thereby improving the efficiency of financial resource allocation [7][9].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations. Although the policy has room for further easing, the market is likely to remain volatile until the central bank sends new signals. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate. Long - term bonds rose in the morning but fell in the afternoon, with all varieties slightly up. The funding situation eased, with DR001 dropping to 1.42%. There were 195.5 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases, resulting in a net injection of 130 billion yuan [1] 2. Important Information - The third - quarter monetary policy implementation report states that a moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented to maintain reasonable growth of financial aggregates and conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [2] 3. Market Analysis - Today, the funding situation eased, but the bond market remained volatile. The morning rise was partly driven by the decline in the A - share market, but the momentum did not last. The central bank's report indicates a suitable monetary and financial environment, so liquidity is not a concern. However, the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest - rate ratio is emphasized, meaning that the market interest rate outpacing the policy rate and excessive compression of the long - short spread are not desired by regulators [3] 4. Data Table - **Contract Price Changes**: TS2512 rose 0.014 to 102.474, TF2512 rose 0.03 to 105.965, T2512 rose 0.025 to 108.52, and TL2512 rose 0.09 to 116.43 [4] - **Contract Position Changes**: TS contract positions decreased by 157 to 85,109, TF contract positions increased by 1,139 to 167,869, T contract positions increased by 2,700 to 291,371, and TL contract positions decreased by 568 to 183,158 [4] - **Base Spread Changes**: TS base spread (CTD) increased by 0.0058 to - 0.0153, TF base spread (CTD) increased by 0.0057 to - 0.0178, T base spread (CTD) increased by 0.0464 to 0.0666, and TL base spread (CTD) increased by 0.0684 to 0.187 [4] - **Trading Volume Changes**: TS main contract trading volume decreased by 8,335 to 20,087, TF main contract trading volume decreased by 8,173 to 40,159, T main contract trading volume increased by 3,414 to 55,607, and TL main contract trading volume increased by 14,105 to 87,575 [4]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank emphasizes maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions and improving the execution and transmission of monetary policy[2] - The report highlights the need for counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to strengthen economic recovery[3] - The central bank aims to optimize monetary policy intermediate variables and gradually reduce focus on quantitative targets, suggesting that loan growth may be slightly lower than nominal economic growth[4] Group 2: External Economic Factors - The report expresses caution regarding external uncertainties, noting challenges in international economic and trade order, and concerns about the diminishing effects of "export grabbing" and "import grabbing"[3] - High tariffs are expected to increase trade costs and create policy uncertainties that may suppress long-term investment and supply chain decisions, indicating a structural shift in global trade growth trends[3][12] Group 3: Interest Rate Management - The central bank stresses the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships across various dimensions, transitioning from setting a single price to managing a system[7][18] - The report identifies five key interest rate relationships that are crucial for effective monetary policy transmission, including the relationship between central bank policy rates and market rates[18][20] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The central bank's commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy is expected to support interest-sensitive assets and sectors backed by clear policy support, such as technology innovation and green industries[21] - The likelihood of significant policy easing measures, such as rate cuts, is low for the remainder of the year, with more substantial easing expected to be deferred until early 2026[21][22] Group 5: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, unexpected policy changes, and disturbances in the global economy[23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds were weak in the short - term and strong in the medium - long term. The yields of 2 - 7Y bonds decreased by about 0.15 - 0.40bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds decreased by about 0.30 and 0.75bp to 1.80% and 2.15% respectively. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.02%, and 0.09% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.49%. The central bank had a net investment of 20 billion yuan in the open - market treasury bond trading in October. Domestically, in October, the year - on - year CPI turned from a decline to an increase, the core CPI continued to rise, and the decline of PPI narrowed for the third consecutive month. The official manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8% to 49%, the non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the comprehensive PMI index was above the critical point, indicating stable overall production and business activities. Overseas, the US labor market cooled significantly, with a total decrease of 45,000 in ADP employment in the four weeks up to October 25th, increasing the risk of employment decline. Some Fed officials were worried about the current inflation risk, and there was still uncertainty about the Fed's interest rate cut in December. Strategically, the central bank's treasury bond trading operations in October were prudent, but the bond - buying operations still sent a loose signal to the market. In the future, the continuous recovery of the economic fundamentals and the implementation of the loose fiscal policy still need a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to mainly purchase medium - and short - term treasury bonds. In the short term, short - term interest rates are expected to continue to decline and may drive long - term interest rates down. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the potential suppression of long - term interest rates by the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position during adjustments [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T main contract closing price was 108.520, up 0.02%; trading volume was 55,607, an increase of 3,414. TF main contract closing price was 105.970, up 0.03%; trading volume was 40,159, a decrease of 8,173. TS main contract closing price was 102.472, up 0.01%; trading volume was 20,087, a decrease of 8,335. TL main contract closing price was 116.450, up 0.09%; trading volume was 87,575, an increase of 14,105 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603 spread was 0.25, up 0.00; T12 - TL12 spread was - 7.93, down 0.11. T2512 - 2603 spread was 0.23, down 0.01; TF12 - T12 spread was - 2.55, down 0.01. TF2512 - 2603 spread was 0.03, down 0.01; TS12 - T12 spread was - 6.05, down 0.04. TS2512 - 2603 spread was 0.05, down 0.00; TS12 - TF12 spread was - 3.50, down 0.03 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions (Lots) - T main contract open interest was 221,517, T top 20 short positions were 258,268, down 4,032; T top 20 long positions were 289,384, up 2,893; T top 20 net short positions were 21,384, up 421. TF main contract open interest was 131,209, down 578; TF top 20 long positions were 131,595, down 73; TF top 20 short positions were 152,985, up 2,052; TF top 20 net short positions were 21,390, up 2,125. TS main contract open interest was 64,193, down 1,509; TS top 20 long positions were 67,227, down 230; TS top 20 short positions were 77,892, down 481; TS top 20 net short positions were 10,665, down 251. TL main contract open interest was 122,816, down 2,848; TL top 20 long positions were 134,404, down 1,327; TL top 20 short positions were 155,668, down 312; TL top 20 net short positions were 21,264, up 1,015 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 220017.IB (4y) was 106.5906, up 0.0305; 250018.IB (4y) was 99.0955, up 0.0257. 250003.IB (4y) was 99.6143, up 0.0040; 240020.IB (4y) was 100.8844, up 0.0076. 220016.IB (1.7y) was 101.8937, up 0.0012; 250012.IB (2y) was 100.0485, up 0.0038. 210005.IB (17y) was 131.4275, up 0.1137; 210014.IB (18y) was 127.725, up 0.1134 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1 - year yield was 1.4000%, up 0.50bp; 3 - year yield was 1.4350%, down 0.25bp. 5 - year yield was 1.5720%, down 0.80bp; 7 - year yield was 1.6950%, down 0.35bp. 10 - year yield was 1.8040%, down 0.10bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver pledge rate was 1.4279%, up 2.79bp; Shibor overnight rate was 1.4150%, down 9.30bp. 7 - day silver pledge rate was 1.5100%, unchanged; Shibor 7 - day rate was 1.4740%, down 2.70bp. 14 - day silver pledge rate was 1.5550%, up 10.50bp; Shibor 14 - day rate was 1.5000%, down 1.80bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged [2] 3.8 Open - market Operations - The issuance scale was 195.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 65.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days. Another issuance scale was 130 billion yuan [2] 3.9 Industry News - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report stated that it would implement a moderately loose monetary policy, keep social financing conditions relatively loose, and improve the monetary policy framework. It was pointed out that social financing scale and money supply were more comprehensive and reasonable than bank loans for observing financial aggregates. The US announced a one - year suspension of the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. The US Senate passed the Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act, taking a key step to end the government shutdown [2] 3.10 Key Points of Attention - The US October unadjusted CPI annual rate on November 13 and the US October PPI on November 14 are to be determined [3]

Group 1 - The rapid development of AI technology is beginning to have a substantial impact on the job market, potentially altering the way central banks formulate policies [1][2] - Employers are reducing hiring plans due to AI's influence, which may be contributing to a slowdown in employment growth [2] - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the need for a third interest rate cut in December, although futures markets indicate that investors are betting on continued rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Significant capital investment, amounting to trillions of dollars, is expected to flow into data center construction, potentially leading to major economic changes, particularly in productivity [3] - Capital investment typically enhances labor productivity and may achieve higher output growth in the long term without exerting inflationary pressure [3] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring how AI-driven investment trends could affect the economy's potential growth rate and natural interest rate levels [3]

豪泽坦言："我们的最佳推测是政策仍具轻微限制性，但这一判断正成为政策挑战中日益关键的部 分。"他进一步警告称："若最终判定政策不再具有温和限制性，将对我们未来的政策立场产生重大影 响。" 新华财经北京11月12日电（崔凯）澳洲联储（RBA）副主席安德鲁·豪泽（Andrew Hauser）12日就货币 政策前景、通胀动态及经济走势发表公开讲话，重申当前政策立场"呈温和限制性"，并强调这一判断是 预期通胀将持续放缓的核心依据。 就业数据成近期焦点 豪泽回应市场对失业率的关注时表示："不存在任何能让央行'满意'的失业率水平。"市场普遍预期将于 11月13日公布的10月就业数据显示，失业率将从9月的4.5%小幅回落至4.4%，新增就业岗位约2万个。 不过，分析师James Glynn提醒，若实际数据出现失业率上升，澳洲联储将在应对持续通胀压力的同时 面临更为复杂的决策环境。 他澄清："失业率大幅上升而通胀居高不下并非我们的预期。"澳洲联储正密切监测陆续发布的经济数 据，以判断当前政策立场是否仍具限制性。他重申，货币政策的松紧程度应基于对中性利率的评估，并 通过整体宏观经济状况加以判断。"金融状况比我们此前认为的更接近 ...

Market Data Summary - DRO01 closed at 1.51 with a 2.52 bp increase, DR007 at 1.51 with a 1.33 bp increase, GC001 at 1.64 with a 43.50 bp increase, and GC007 at 1.53 with a 5.00 bp increase [4] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.58, LPR 5 - year at 3.50, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.56 bp increase, 5 - year treasury at 1.57 with a - 0.88 bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a - 0.05 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.13 with a 2.00 bp increase [4] - The central bank conducted 4038 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 1175 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2863 billion yuan [4] - This week, 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 783 billion, 1175 billion, 655 billion, 928 billion, and 1417 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote a reasonable recovery of prices and keep social financing conditions relatively loose [4] Stock Index Market - CSI 300 closed at 4652, down 0.91%; SSE 50 at 3035, down 0.63%; CSI 500 at 7292, down 0.71%; and CSI 1000 at 7541, down 0.30% [6] - IF volume was 110400 with a 3.4% increase, IH volume 50142 with a 9.2% increase, IC volume 112484 with an 8.4% decrease, and IM volume 186082 with a 4.3% decrease [6] - IF open interest was 263184 with a 1.9% decrease, IH open interest 94744 with a 2.0% decrease, IC open interest 241256 with a 3.2% decrease, and IM open interest 354095 with a 0.2% decrease [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19936 billion yuan, a decrease of 1809 billion yuan from the previous day [6] - Photovoltaic equipment, chemical raw materials, non - metallic materials, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical commerce sectors led the gains, while insurance, energy metals, aerospace, electronic components, and software development sectors led the losses [6] Market Outlook - The stock index closed down in a volatile manner. The current macro - level is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, lacking a core driving force [7] - Market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the stock index's volatile adjustment. New driving factors such as overseas liquidity release or domestic fundamental improvement will be key for the market to rise [7] Stock Index Futures Basis - IF basis was 9.39% for the current - month contract, 5.24% for the next - month contract, 3.15% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.32% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH basis was 1.24% for the current - month contract, 0.52% for the next - month contract, 0.47% for the current - quarter contract, and 0.66% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC basis was 24.73% for the current - month contract, 15.62% for the next - month contract, 11.17% for the current - quarter contract, and 10.87% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM basis was 31.07% for the current - month contract, 19.16% for the next - month contract, 14.03% for the current - quarter contract, and 13.00% for the next - quarter contract [8]

Group 1: Main Views - The content that needs attention in the main body of this monetary policy report is relatively limited, and the report emphasizes internal certainty and focuses more on domestic demand. The probability of an increase in the aggregate policy has increased [1]. - The column content is the focus of this report. Columns 1, 2, and 4 are logically related, aiming to stabilize market sentiment and reduce asset price fluctuations. Multiple perspectives for observing interest - rate comparisons are proposed, continuing the central bank's work direction in recent years [1]. - The stability of the net interest margin (banking system) is a prerequisite for the monetary policy to intensify and benefit the real economy, and the stability of liabilities needs to be considered. After the capital market expectations stabilize, there may be a new round of aggregate policy intensification accompanied by further adjustments to the deposit rates of large - scale banks, and interest rate cuts may occur [2]. - As the spread between the policy rate and the money market stabilizes and the interest - rate corridor compresses, the interest - rate market will gradually find its "anchor" [2]. Group 2: More Positive Tone Macroeconomic Outlook - The summary of the overseas situation in the third - quarter monetary policy report is weaker than that in the second - quarter report. The report points out that "global economic growth momentum is insufficient" in the third quarter, mainly due to the decline in GDP growth rates in the eurozone and the UK, and the decline in exports in the Asia - Pacific region despite the improvement in Japan's GDP. Geopolitical conflicts are emphasized as a potential risk to the stability of the political and financial system [3]. - Domestically, there are some structural improvements in investment, but the overall economic data has shown a weakening trend since the third quarter. The third - quarter report has a marginal change in the description of the aggregate policy, indicating that the foundation for the domestic economic recovery needs to be strengthened [3][4]. Next - Stage Monetary Policy Main Ideas - The monetary policy will continue to maintain a moderately loose environment, with almost no new content in this part. The description of the monetary policy in the third - quarter report has been reduced by a paragraph compared with previous reports, possibly because there is little change in the current monetary policy tone and implementation, and the aggregate policy may be announced after the year - end important meeting [4]. Group 3: Column In - Depth Reading Column 1: Scientific View of Aggregate Financial Indicators - Social financing scale and money supply are more comprehensive and reasonable than bank loans for observing financial aggregates. This column aims to manage expectations, urging the market to look at total financing data and smooth the impact of data on the market [10][11]. - The emphasis on aggregate financial data is reasonable because the economic growth engine has shifted. Advanced manufacturing and other industries are mainly supported by government financing, so focusing only on credit data may lead to a more pessimistic view of the economy [11]. - If credit improves significantly and continuously in the future, it may mean a transformation of the economic engine from structural industries to overall demand recovery. However, the growth of new social financing this year mainly relies on government bond financing, and the comparative advantage will disappear in 2026 [12]. Column 2: The Relationship between Base Money and Money - This column explains the difference between high - powered money and broad money and points out that the expansion of broad money mainly depends on the credit expansion of banks. It supplements Column 1 by emphasizing the importance of aggregate financial data such as money supply [16][17]. Column 4: Maintaining a Reasonable Interest - Rate Comparison Relationship - The column focuses on several aspects of interest - rate comparisons, including the linkage between policy rates and other rates, deposit and loan rates, the comparison effect of bank assets, term spreads, and credit risk [20]. - The stability of the net interest margin is a key factor for policy space. The trend of deposit - rate adjustment continues, and the actions of large - scale banks need to be monitored. Future deposit - rate adjustment analysis should consider the performance of the capital market [21]. - The central bank pays close attention to the shape of the treasury bond yield curve. When the term spread deviates significantly from the central level, the monetary policy may use structural means to guide market correction [22]. - Since the Lujiazui Forum in June 2024, the central bank has taken measures to strengthen the importance of policy rates and the smoothness of the interest - rate transmission mechanism. The spread between the policy rate and the market rate is becoming more stable, and the interest - rate market is gradually finding its "anchor" [22].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea (BOK) is balancing the need for monetary stimulus with the risks posed by the property market, which is viewed as a potential crisis point. The BOK is cautious about interest rate cuts due to their potential impact on housing prices, particularly in metropolitan areas like Seoul [1][4][6]. Monetary Policy and Economic Growth - The BOK acknowledges that property prices, especially in metropolitan areas, are crucial for financial stability and that price stability is a key mandate [2][3]. - Current inflation is around 2%, meeting the BOK's price stability goal, but the focus is now shifting towards financial stability and the implications of interest rate cuts on housing prices [3][4]. - The BOK is considering the trade-off between stimulating the economy through rate cuts and the potential overheating of the property market [3][5]. Government Coordination and Long-term Measures - The BOK believes that monetary policy alone cannot address the housing crisis and emphasizes the need for coordinated government policies to manage the property sector effectively [4][5]. - There is an expectation for the government to implement long-term measures to increase housing supply and stabilize the market [5][6]. Economic Forecasts and Growth Rates - The BOK's growth forecast for the current year is 4.9%, which is below potential GDP, with a projected growth rate of 1.6% for the following year [7][8]. - A new economic forecast is expected to be released soon, which may lead to adjustments in monetary policy based on updated data [8][14]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is reacting to both domestic and international factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's decisions and global economic conditions [10][11]. - There is concern that rising bond yields could disrupt the monetary transmission mechanism, necessitating potential measures from the BOK [12][13]. Trade Relations and Economic Stability - The recent trade deal with the U.S. is viewed positively, as it aims to reduce uncertainties regarding tariffs and enhance investment [15][16]. - The BOK is optimistic about the potential for joint ventures that leverage the strengths of both the U.S. and Korean economies [16]. Currency and Exchange Rate Concerns - The Korean won has been weak against other Asian currencies, influenced by various factors including stock price volatility and U.S. economic conditions [17][18]. - The BOK is monitoring the exchange rate closely, noting that domestic investment abroad is affecting currency stability [21][23]. Stock Market Valuation and Risks - Despite recent increases in stock prices, particularly in the semiconductor sector, the BOK does not view the overall market as significantly overvalued compared to other countries [25][26]. - There are concerns about the volatility in the stock market, especially regarding high-tech stocks, which could pose risks for domestic retail investors [27][28]. Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties are identified as significant risks to the Korean economy, which is heavily export-oriented and reliant on high-tech sectors [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea's monetary policy adjustments will depend on upcoming data performance, indicating a potential shift in the current easing cycle [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Korea is currently in a monetary easing cycle, but the timing and extent of interest rate adjustments will be influenced by new data [1] - The official stance remains to maintain the monetary easing cycle due to a negative output gap [1] - The Bank of Korea's policy path is primarily driven by domestic conditions, although U.S. interest rate cuts could provide more room for independent action [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Recent stock market gains are largely driven by optimism surrounding the AI and semiconductor industries [1] - There are concerns regarding valuations and market volatility, but evidence of overheating in the market is considered limited, as the price-to-book ratio remains below that of global peers [1]