2026 年 2 月 11 日 总量研究 如何解读 2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告？ ——2025Q4 货币政策执行报告学习体会 作者 分析师：王佳雯 执业证书编号：S0930524010001 021-52523870 wangjiawen@ebscn.com 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 要点 事件：2026 年 2 月 10 日，中国人民银行发布《2025 年第四季度中国货币政策 执行报告》。 核心观点： 2025Q4 货政报告中，央行肯定了国内经济工作成果和物价回升的积极变化， 对 2026 年国内经济增长较为乐观。货币政策基调不变，提出要稳定短端利率， 可能顺应推出相应政策工具；降息更需要"择时"，但应关注汇率持续升值对 货币政策调节的影响；重申货币政策和财政政策的协同配合，关注到"大资 管"行业内部资金流动产生的摩擦，流动性总体无忧，利好国内股债市场。 一、如何解读 2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告？ 国内宏观方面：2025 年经济工作圆满完成，物价运行呈现积极变化。《2025 年第四季度货币政策 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 延续适度宽松，更加强调"以我为主" ——2025 年 Q4 货币政策执行报告解读 核心观点 2026 年 2 月 10 日，人民银行发布《2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》，我们认 为货币政策报告核心要点有：①延续适度宽松基调，更加强调"以我为主"；②财政金 融协同支持扩内需，重点关注再贷款+财政贴息&风险共担，而非购债；③重点关注绿 色金融，从做大规模转向做强机制；④从资管产品+银行存款合并视角看流动性总量， 单纯用传统存款派生框架容易误读流动性松紧；⑤支持个人高效便捷重塑信用。 对于后续货币政策，预计 2026 年有 25-50BP 降准、10BP 降息的总量性宽松操作，节 奏上预计小步慢跑，频度不会太高。此外预计结构性政策工具也将持续发力，同步强 化信贷的结构性引导，扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等领域是重点支持方向。 ❑ 一、延续适度宽松基调，更加强调"以我为主" 央行在三季度下一阶段主要思路里强调"实施好适度宽松…保持社融条件相对宽 松"，并且在同一段落中单列提示"密切关注海外主要央行货币政策变化"。四季 度央行同样提及"继续实施好适度宽松"，但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the article revolves around the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) monetary policy adjustments and their implications for the economy, focusing on stabilizing short-term interest rates, promoting low financing costs, and leveraging exchange rates as automatic stabilizers for macroeconomic balance [5][6][10]. Group 1: Short-term Interest Rates - The PBOC aims to guide short-term money market rates to operate smoothly around the central bank's policy rates, specifically targeting DR001 and DR007, with a stable operation range defined as 20 basis points below and 50 basis points above the 7-day reverse repo rate [1][6]. - The report indicates that the key interest rates like DR001 and DR007 are expected to operate within a corridor of 70 basis points, which is considered acceptable by the central bank [1][6]. Group 2: Financing Costs - The PBOC emphasizes the need to maintain low comprehensive financing costs for society, suggesting that current financing costs are already at a relatively acceptable low level, making further rate cuts less likely without stronger triggers [2][8]. - The focus remains on stabilizing and expanding bank interest margins while ensuring sufficient liquidity for the banking system, indicating a low probability of significant increases in short-term rates like interbank certificates of deposit [2][8]. Group 3: Exchange Rate Stabilization - The PBOC calls for the exchange rate to function as an automatic stabilizer for the macroeconomy and international balance of payments, highlighting its role in adjusting trade conditions and absorbing external policy impacts [3][10]. - Emphasizing the need for exchange rate flexibility, the PBOC aims to maintain a balance between internal and external economic conditions, which requires a certain degree of exchange rate elasticity [3][10]. Group 4: Response to Deposit Migration - The PBOC addresses the issue of "deposit migration," noting that as direct financing develops and financing channels diversify, the allocation of household savings between bank deposits and other financial assets will become more varied [4][11]. - The central bank emphasizes that while this diversification may affect the structure of bank liabilities, it does not necessarily lead to significant changes in the overall liquidity of the financial system [4][11].

然而，美联储官员近期的表态显示，货币政策转向并不急于一时。达拉斯联储主席洛根明确表示，当前更担忧通胀持续处于高位，并对现有政策利率能否推 动通胀回归2%目标持"谨慎乐观"态度。她强调，未来几个月的数据将验证当前政策立场是否适宜，若通胀下降同时劳动力市场明显走弱，降息才可能成为 合适选项。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克也持类似观点，认为政策利率可能"在相当长一段时间内维持不变"，并预计今年通胀率仍可能接近3%，与此前两年水 平相当。 研究机构凯投宏观指出，尽管12月单月数据疲弱尚不足以完全否定去年第四季度的消费表现，但结合2026年1月大部分地区遭遇极端寒冬天气可能进一步抑 制消费活动，2026年第一季度消费增长预计将显著放缓。这一判断如果成立，或将加剧经济动能减弱的压力。 整体来看，12月零售数据意外走弱，暴露出美国消费复苏的基础并不牢固，尤其在中低收入群体中显得更为明显。在通胀仍高于目标、劳动力市场尚未明显 降温的背景下，美联储的政策路径仍将高度依赖后续经济数据的表现。消费动能的可持续性，将成为影响2026年上半年美国经济与货币政策走向的关键观测 变量。 美国2025年12月零售销售数据的发布，揭示出消费者支出动能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump signals a significant shift in the Fed's communication style and its approach to interest rate cuts, potentially altering market expectations and reactions to monetary policy changes [1][2]. Group 1: Warsh's Monetary Policy Approach - Warsh is characterized as a "disciplinarian" who prioritizes the long-term consequences of financial conditions and the institutional costs of balance sheet expansion, showing a natural aversion to the normalization of unconventional tools like quantitative easing (QE) [2][3]. - He believes that the threshold for initiating QE will be significantly raised in response to general economic fluctuations, as he views QE as distorting asset prices and exacerbating wealth inequality [2][3]. - Warsh emphasizes that while interest rate cuts may be necessary, they do not equate to excessive monetary easing, suggesting that current rates could be 50-100 basis points above the neutral rate, which is around 3% [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of Balance Sheet Reduction - Warsh advocates for using balance sheet reduction to create room for interest rate cuts, arguing that inflation stems from fiscal deficit expansion and excessive monetary issuance rather than an overheated labor market [3][4]. - His approach suggests that the Fed's intervention threshold will be raised during market turbulence, contrasting with the current trend of the Fed acting as a market backstop [3][4]. - The transition to a framework focused on price adjustment rather than quantity support could lead to increased volatility in money markets, as banks will need to manage liquidity more actively without relying on the Fed's unlimited supply [6][7]. Group 3: Political Considerations and Market Reactions - Trump's choice of Warsh reflects a desire for a candidate who is loyal and willing to cut rates while also being credible enough to navigate Senate confirmation and maintain market confidence [8][9]. - Warsh's "hawkish reputation" is seen as a competitive advantage, as it reassures the market that any future rate cuts will be based on monetary discipline rather than political compromise [9][10]. - The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 create a political imperative for Warsh to align his actions with the administration's goals, particularly in managing inflation and living costs for voters [10][14]. Group 4: Future Market Implications - The midterm elections are expected to serve as a natural dividing line for policy pacing, with Warsh likely to adopt a gradual approach to reforms post-election, regardless of the election outcome [15][16]. - The Fed's communication style is anticipated to shift, with less frequent guidance and a reduction in the predictability of rate cuts, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty [16][18]. - Overall, while the narrative of a weak dollar remains intact, the focus on fundamental performance in the stock market may increase, with a notable return to value sectors as high valuations and leverage are scrutinized [18].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：熊园观察 国盛证券首席经济学家，熊园 博士 国盛证券宏观分析师，穆仁文 事件：2月10日，央行发布《2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》（后文简称《报告》），并设有4 个专栏，分别为《财政金融协同支持扩内需》、《持续提升绿色金融质效 服务经济社会绿色低碳转 型》、《从资管产品与银行存款的合并视角看流动性总量》、《实施一次性信用修复政策 支持个人高 效便捷重塑信用》。 核心观点：本次报告的定调基本延续此前Q3报告、Q4货政例会、1.15国新办发布会等的表述，包括对 国内经济延续乐观、继续"实施好适度宽松的货币政策"、"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"等。 但相较Q3报告，也有不少新变化，重点关注两方面，一是政策定调上新增"把促进经济稳定增长作为货 币政策的重要考量"，指向未来基本面走弱仍是触发货币宽松的重要变量；二是社会融资成本方面，从 上季度的"推动成本下降"变为"促进成本低位运行"，预示央行在降息操作上会更加谨慎，应较难看到快 速的、大幅的、持续的降息操作。本次报告的专栏信息量也较大，一是专栏3讨论了居民存款"流失"对 ...

国债期货日报 | 2026-02-11 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算收 入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优"， 支出力度有望加强，节奏继续前置，对稳增长形成支撑。（4）金融：2025年前12个月份社会融资规模增量累计为 35.6万亿元，比去年同期3.34万亿：12月末，M2余额340.29万亿，同比+8.5%；M1余额115.51万亿，同比+3.8%。 12月末人民币贷款余额同比+6.2%，存款余额同比+8.7%。信贷方面居民与企业融资明显分化，居民贷款减少反映 内生需求仍弱，企业贷款则同比多增，体现政策支持效果逐步显现。（5）央行：2026-02-10，央行以固定利率1.4%、 数量招标方式开展了3114亿元7天的逆回购操作。（6）货币市场：主要期限回购利率1D、7D、14D和1M分别为1.362%、 1.531%、1.604% 和1.551%，回购利率近期回落。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity [1] - The A-share market shows mixed trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising and the ChiNext Index falling, and different industries having different performances [2] - Before the holiday, the market trading volume gradually shrinks. The performance of the CSI 500 index is increasingly correlated with the cyclical sector. Attention should be paid to the trend of the non - ferrous metal industry [3] Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and use various policy tools to maintain liquidity. The adjustment of residents' asset allocation will eventually flow back to the banking system. Overseas, US retail sales in December 2025 were weaker than expected [1] Spot Market Tracking Charts - On February 10, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to 4128.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.02%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.37%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.11%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.18%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.06%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 2 trillion yuan [2][12] Futures Market Tracking Charts - In the futures market, the current - month contract basis of stock index futures maintains a premium. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures continue to decrease simultaneously. The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decline [2][14] - The basis and inter - period spreads of different contracts of stock index futures have different values and changes [39][43][44]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The central bank plans to lower the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points throughout 2025, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate reduced from 1.5% to 1.4% in May 2025, aiming to decrease overall financing costs[3] - Short-term market interest rates are expected to operate within a range of 20 basis points below to 50 basis points above the policy rate, indicating a more stable operation of the monetary market[3] - The central bank emphasizes the need to guide short-term money market rates to better align with the central bank's policy rates, enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy[3] Group 2: Financing Costs and Economic Stability - The report highlights the goal of maintaining low comprehensive financing costs for society, indicating that current financing costs are already at a relatively acceptable low level[3] - There is a focus on stabilizing and expanding bank interest margins while ensuring sufficient liquidity for the banking system, suggesting limited probability for significant increases in short-term rates[3] - The central bank aims to improve the interest rate adjustment framework and strengthen the transmission mechanism of market interest rates, ensuring effective financial support for key sectors like domestic demand and innovation[3] Group 3: Exchange Rate Management - The central bank stresses the importance of the exchange rate as an automatic stabilizer for macroeconomic conditions and international balance of payments, advocating for a managed floating exchange rate system[5] - Emphasis is placed on maintaining exchange rate flexibility to absorb external shocks and provide room for independent domestic monetary policy operations[5] - The report calls for reinforcing expectations management to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, aiming for basic stability of the RMB at a reasonable equilibrium level[5] Group 4: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected changes in the external environment, misinterpretations of the "deposit migration" issue, and unforeseen fluctuations in the financial market[6] - The report warns of possible underperformance in real estate sales and fixed asset investments, as well as the effects of anti-involution policies not meeting expectations[6]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Overview - The domestic interest rate policy maintains a generally loose trend, but the pace is relatively steady, considering both internal and external environments and policy coordination effects[1] - The main targets of the policy include maintaining reasonable liquidity (M2), nurturing stable expectations (exchange rate), and gradually repairing balance sheets (capital markets)[1] Group 2: Economic Insights - The central bank acknowledges increasing external uncertainties, with the US economy showing resilience and inflation risks rising, while domestic economic fundamentals remain stable and strong[8] - Despite challenges such as "strong supply but weak demand," the long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy is unchanged, with consumer prices (CPI) showing a mild recovery, rising by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025[12] Group 3: Policy Focus - The policy emphasizes strengthening domestic demand and coordinating supply and demand relationships, aiming to consolidate and expand the economy's stable upward momentum[9] - Future targeted easing measures are expected to focus on specific areas such as domestic demand, technology innovation, and small and micro enterprises, supported by fiscal subsidies[9] Group 4: Credit and Financial Support - Credit issuance continues to focus on five key areas to support economic transformation, including optimizing loans for technological innovation and promoting green finance standards[10] - The central bank's innovative one-time credit repair policy aims to support personal credit restoration, enhancing consumer demand and aiding in the repair of banks' balance sheets[10] Group 5: Risk Considerations - There is a risk of misinterpretation of policies, which could impact the effectiveness of the monetary measures[13]