日本央行行长植田和男：认为经济和物价面临的下行风险都更为严重。 ...

美国消费者信心六个月来首次有所改善 金十数据6月13日讯，密歇根大学消费者调查主任Joanne Hsu表示，消费者信心六个月来首次有所改 善，较上月上升16%，但仍比2024年12月低20%左右，当时消费者信心在大选后出现了反弹。此外，所 有五个指数组成部分均出现上涨，其中短期和长期预期商业状况的涨幅特别大，这与人们认为关税压力 有所缓解的看法一致。消费者似乎在一定程度上已经从4月份宣布的极高关税以及随后几周出现的政策 波动的冲击中恢复过来。然而，消费者仍认为经济面临广泛的下行风险。他们对商业状况、个人财务状 况、大宗商品购买状况、劳动力市场和股票市场的看法都远低于六个月前的2024年12月。尽管本月经济 明显好转，但消费者仍对经济走势保持谨慎和担忧。 ...

Group 1 - The Eurozone's industrial and trade sectors faced significant shocks in April, likely influenced by U.S. tariff policies, challenging previous views of Eurozone resilience during economic turmoil [1] - Eurozone industrial output fell by 2.4% month-on-month in April, exceeding the 1.7% decline expected by economists, with all industrial sectors experiencing contraction [1] - The trade surplus for the Eurozone dropped sharply from €37.3 billion in March to €9.9 billion in April, indicating severe pressure on trade [1] Group 2 - Eurozone exports to non-EU countries decreased by 8.2%, while the overall EU export decline reached 9.7%, reflecting broader trade challenges [1] - Exports to the U.S. plummeted from €71.1 billion in March to €47.6 billion in April, primarily driven by a sharp reduction in chemical exports, potentially linked to Ireland's pharmaceutical sector [1] - April's industrial output year-on-year growth was only 0.8%, with only non-durable consumer goods showing annual growth, indicating a significant slowdown [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising rapidly, with Trump indicating that Israel may attack Iran, which will lead to a short - term weakening of the US dollar index and a strong rise in gold prices [2][3][16][20]. - The US economic data shows signs of weakness, such as the initial jobless claims and May PPI being weaker than expected, which affects the performance of various financial and commodity markets [15][16][23][24]. - Different commodity markets have different trends. For example, the soybean meal in the agricultural product market is relatively strong but is expected to fluctuate around 3000; the sugar market is expected to be weak due to the expected increase in Brazilian sugar production; the coal price in the black metal market may experience a second dip; and the silicon material market in the non - ferrous metal market is facing price decline risks [30][36][39][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump said that Israel's attack on Iran is "very likely", and the US economic data is weak. The initial jobless claims and May PPI are weaker than expected. Gold prices are expected to be strong with increased volatility [14][15][16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement that Israel may attack Iran accelerates the rise of geopolitical risks, and the US dollar index is expected to continue to weaken in the short term [19][20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US imposes tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the unemployment benefit application data is weak. The US stock market is still in a volatile situation, and it is not recommended to chase high [22][23][25]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 1193 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The long - term bonds lack the driving force to break through directly. The market is expected to be volatile in the near future, and investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raise the soybean production forecasts of Brazil and Argentina respectively. The domestic soybean meal is stronger than the external market but is expected to fluctuate around 3000 [28][29][30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Trump administration is expected to propose a biodiesel quota lower than 5.25 billion gallons. Investors holding long positions are advised to exit [31][33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The market expects an increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of May. The domestic sugar market is expected to be weak, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be weak with fluctuations [36][37]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal price in the northern port market is temporarily stable, but it may experience a second dip due to factors such as weak power consumption demand [38][39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Roy Hill and Atlas Iron plan to merge. The iron ore price is expected to decline slightly with the weakening of terminal demand, but the decline will be gentle [40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The short - to medium - term pig price may be pessimistic, but the supply pressure may ease in the third to fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products has decreased, but the performance of building materials and coils is differentiated. The steel price is expected to be weak with fluctuations [44]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve. The CS07 - C07 is expected to be in low - level fluctuation [46]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of major processing enterprises has decreased, and the corn inventory is tightening. The 09 contract is expected to be strong first and then weak, with fluctuations [47][48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The price of N - type silicon wafers has slightly decreased. The spot market is bearish in the short term, but the price decline may stimulate silicon material manufacturers to cut production. A short - term short and long - term long strategy is considered [49][50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some silicon plants in Sichuan have resumed production, and the demand is still weak. The disk price is expected to be in low - level fluctuation, and shorting on rebounds can be considered [53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The short - term fundamental support exists, and it is recommended to wait and see. Options can be used to replace futures positions, and shorting on rebounds can be considered in the medium term [54][55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The inventory pressure in June has been significantly relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price has oscillated upwards, and the supply is expected to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to medium - term long - buying opportunities [59][60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price has fluctuated widely, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be strong in supply and weak in demand. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the arrival situation in Shanghai [63][64]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG commodity volume has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The spot price has limited upward momentum, and the disk is expected to be weak with fluctuations [66][67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The National Energy Administration organizes hydrogen energy pilot projects. The CEA is expected to be volatile in the short term [68][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see [71][72]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The demand for PTA is in the off - season, and the supply has increased. The short - term price faces pressure, and long - term long positions can be considered on dips [73][74]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The 09 contract of caustic soda is affected by the overall weakness of commodities, but the large discount on the disk will limit the downward space [75][77]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has continued to decline. The disk is expected to be volatile [78][79]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC has slightly increased, and the disk is expected to be volatile [80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The pre - sales of urea production enterprises have decreased. The urea price is expected to be weak in the long term, and attention can be paid to the possibility of policy relaxation [80][82]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The supply pressure of bottle chips is large, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to build long positions on dips to expand the processing fee [85]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price has declined significantly, and the market is in weak and stable adjustment. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term [86]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price has slightly decreased. The demand will decline seasonally, and the price is expected to be weak [87][88].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 美国非农数据"涉险过关"，工业金属环比 上涨 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（6 月 2 日-6 月 6 日），有色板块本周上涨 3.74%，在全部一级行业 中排名靠后。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中小金属板块上涨 5.07%，金属新材料板块上涨 5.15%，工业金属板块上涨 3.24%，能源金属板块上 涨 3.71%，贵金属板块上涨 3.58%。工业金属方面，美国非农数据"涉险过关"， 中美领导人通话并商定第二轮关税贸易谈判，乐观情绪腿痛工业金属环比上涨。贵 金属方面，本次大非农数据暂时缓解了市场对于经济快速下行的担忧，此外中美领 导人通话并商定 6 月 9 日于英国伦敦展开中美第二轮贸易会谈，宏观情绪的转暖使 得黄金价格于下半周走弱，我们仍预计关税对通胀和就业的冲击可能会在未来数个 月中陆续体现，需留意相关数据与会谈成果。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：下游需求趋弱沪铜开始累库，铜价受宏观驱动环比上涨。截至 6 月 6 日，伦铜报 收 9,671 美元/吨，周环比上涨 1.83%； ...

日本央行行长植田和男：由于不确定性极高，我们必须比以往任何时候都更加关注上行和下行风险。 ...

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the economy and labor market face downside risks, while inflation is under upward pressure [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may become most pronounced in the second half of 2025 [1] Economic Outlook - The economy is experiencing potential downturns, which could affect overall growth and stability [1] - The labor market is also showing signs of vulnerability, suggesting a need for caution in economic forecasts [1] Inflation Concerns - Inflationary pressures are expected to rise, indicating challenges for monetary policy and consumer purchasing power [1] - The timing of tariff impacts on inflation suggests a delayed effect, with significant implications for economic planning and strategy in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Societe Generale's interest rate strategists believe that U.S. short-term Treasury yields face downward risks due to rising uncertainties [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Outlook** - The bank suggests that despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to maintain policy stability, a weak job market could lead to a quick market adjustment for further rate cuts [1] - Even with strong employment data, the bond market may not react significantly; however, disappointing data could still provide upward pressure on short-term yields [1]

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 5 月消费者信心指数上升，4 月份规上工 企利润增速 3% [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-28 宏观策略（黄金） 美国佛州签署法案承认金银为法定货币 金价回调超过 1%一度跌破 3000 美金关口，市场风险偏好回升， 受到欧盟与美国谈判进展的推动，特朗普此前威胁对欧盟加征 50%关税，主要还是通过极限施压方式达成协议。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 5 月消费者信心指数升至 98.0 综 欧美关税谈判压力缓和，软数据边际改善，市场风险偏好提升， 三大股指大幅上涨。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 前 4 月规上工企利润同比增 1.4% 报 4 月份规上工企利润单月增速回升至 3%，拆分看，量价双弱， 利润率改善支撑利润增速。营收增速则回落至 2.6%表明抢出口 对需求拉动不及预期。 有色金属（铜） IEA 警告全球精炼铜需求料在 2050 年之前大幅增加 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | F03107631 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0021468 | | Tel： ...

Group 1 - The annual meeting of global central banks in Tokyo will focus on "new challenges in monetary policy," addressing weak economic growth and persistent inflation pressures [1][2] - The meeting will feature key speakers including Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, and Agustin Carstens, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements [1][2] - The discussions will center around the impact of tariffs on economic downturn risks, particularly influenced by U.S. policies under President Trump [2][4] Group 2 - Central banks are facing intertwined pressures from sustained inflation, economic downturn risks, and market volatility, with a particular focus on the implications of U.S. tariffs [2][4] - The Bank of Japan is maintaining a gradual rate hike path, but recent global economic changes have raised doubts about its tightening pace [2][7] - The meeting will also address the effectiveness and limitations of unconventional monetary tools used during economic downturns [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is currently in a "wait-and-see" mode, as rising tariffs are expected to push inflation higher, complicating its policy decisions [4][5] - European Central Bank officials are considering pausing further easing measures due to re-emerging inflation pressures, despite plans for a rate cut in June [6] - The Bank of Japan has lowered its growth forecast due to U.S. tariffs and is signaling a potential pause in its rate hike cycle, while still aiming for a core inflation target of 2% [7]