（转载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 引 言 "风乍起，吹皱一池春水"。4月3日，特朗普政府一纸关税新政再次搅动全球资本市场。与五年前不同，这一 次美国政府高调宣布启动"对等关税"，对全球主要经济体再次加征高额关税。 4月4日，中国国务院关税税则 委员会宣布对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征34%的关税。受此冲击，全球资本市场迅速作出剧烈反应，标 普500指数两日累计下跌逾10%，创下自2020年3月疫情初期以来最大两日跌幅，欧洲及亚太市场主要股指也 齐齐重挫。 "山雨欲来风满楼"。 4月9日， 美国正式落地对中国加征的 50% 关税，累计税率达到 104% 。随即中国反 制，迅速追加对美关税至 84% 。直至10日凌晨，特朗普宣称对中国税率提高至 125% 。 表面看，"对等关 税"似乎不过是美国政府在贸易博弈中的又一次强硬施压，但深究其本质，这更可能是特朗普政府在"制度层 面"发起的一次路径变革。 历史表明，当国际制度收益不再普遍共享时，变革的动力往往来自制度外部的极限冲击。特朗普的关税举措正 代表了这一类型的外部冲击——其看似政策博弈的外表之下，暗藏的是全球资本秩序重塑的制度锚点。 本 ...

当地时间4月2日，美国总统特朗普在白宫宣布对贸易伙伴征收所谓的"对等关税"措施。特朗普展示的图 表显示，美国对中国实施34%的对等关税，对其他多个国家征收10%以上税率不等的关税。美国定于5 日开始对所有贸易伙伴加征10%的"最低基准关税"，对某些贸易伙伴征收更高的"对等关税"，这些措施 将于9日生效。此次关税措施力度超出市场预期，引发市场广泛关注。 尽管美国加征关税力度较大，但从4月3日A股市场表现来看，市场整体情绪好于预期，显示出较强的韧 性。尽管出海导向板块受到明显冲击，但A股整体情绪稳定，未出现大幅波动，反而美股出现连续暴 跌，这进一步凸显了"东升西降"的趋势。重点观察周一市场走势，如果能够上行或至少横盘，说明市场 情绪已基本稳定，除出海板块外，其他板块无需过度悲观。 当前正值年报季，4月是全年最贴近基本面的时期，市场风格将阶段性从关注预期向关注基本面业绩转 化。投资者将更加关注企业的实际业绩表现，这有助于稳定市场情绪，减少因贸易摩擦带来的短期波 动。建议投资者关注业绩稳定、具有核心竞争力的企业，特别是在国内市场需求旺盛的板块中寻找机 会。同时，引导市场资金流向业绩优良的企业，通过优化上市公司结构，提 ...

转发一篇小文章"川普为什么敢胡言乱语"，这篇文章所举的现实案例生动地揭示了全球正在经历一轮50-60年"康波周期"的底部，这是老人政治下掌权一 代对50-60年前峥嵘岁月的怀念，是对曾经荣耀的怀旧。 《川普为什么敢胡言乱语》 2025.3.20 我妈是邮政局职工，九几年的时候她去郊区仓库批发杂志书籍，然后用单位平台去零售，一个月就能赚六七千。 我舅是电信局的，邮电刚分家那会儿，他们去给人装电话，装交换机，人户主不但要好烟好茶的伺候着，而且平均每装一台他都能得1000块钱，那可是二 十多年前啊。 还有当年国企的货车司机，跑一趟长途都有人求他捎东西去外地，顺便给他车里塞几条华子或者两瓶茅台啥的，吃喝住全部单位报销，小日子赛神仙，比 公务员还快活。 只是美国刚开始，我们刚来过。 全球化的协作分工、市场化的资源配置都是人类社会发展的必然选择，无论谁，打着什么旗号，最终都会头破血流，重回正轨。 反思后的再出发傲慢下的瞎折腾； 东升西降。 但随着中国的快速发展，以上这些红利都不复存在，我妈现在有时候看到"中通""京东"这些物流公司都会吐槽几句，说这些人把邮政的饭碗都给抢了。 还有经典的300多岁老人领社保，其实那是个系统 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the trend of "East Rising, West Declining" in the investment landscape, particularly focusing on the shift of domestic private equity from U.S. stocks to Hong Kong and A-shares due to ongoing declines in the U.S. stock market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The well-known private equity "Yuefeng" has seen its fund, Jiayue Yuefeng Investment Genesis, drop below 0.4 yuan, marking it as a rare "three-mao fund" in the industry [2][3]. - The U.S. stock market has faced significant declines in 2023, with the Dow Jones down 1.28%, NASDAQ down 10.42%, and S&P 500 down 4.59% in the first quarter [3]. - Domestic private equity firms are increasingly withdrawing from the U.S. market, with many reallocating their investments to Hong Kong and A-shares [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Shifts - High-profile investors like Gao Yuncheng from Jinglin Asset have completely eliminated U.S. company assets from their portfolios, focusing instead on Chinese assets, particularly in Hong Kong [4]. - A significant portion of private equity professionals have reportedly cleared their U.S. stock holdings, with expectations of widespread losses among U.S. hedge funds in the first quarter [4]. Group 3: Capital Inflows - In March, southbound funds purchased a total of 160.282 billion HKD, marking the second-highest net buying record in history [5]. - Despite recent pullbacks in the technology sector, market funds continue to flow into Hong Kong's internet technology assets, indicating strong investor interest [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is currently in a phase of performance verification, with expectations for a brief period of adjustment in April, but a long-term upward trend is anticipated [6]. - Companies with strong performance and growth potential in the technology sector are viewed as favorable investment opportunities during market downturns [6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for the bond market in 2025, suggesting potential opportunities similar to those observed in 2023 [2][9]. Core Insights - The bond market in 2025 is expected to experience fluctuations but is not anticipated to end the bull market, with a focus on monetary policy changes and external demand [5][9]. - The economic narrative of "East Rising, West Falling" is highlighted as a key driver for both 2023 and 2025, emphasizing the need to monitor differences in external demand, domestic consumption, inflation, and financing needs [3][9]. - The report discusses the impact of the real estate market, noting a divergence between second-hand and first-hand housing transactions, with second-hand sales benefiting from policy support and improved demand [12][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government fiscal policy in supporting the economy, particularly in the context of rising debt levels and the need for effective consumption stimulation measures [28][29]. Summary by Sections Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue its bullish trend, driven by factors such as declining interest rates and the ongoing economic recovery [16][41]. - The report suggests that the bond market's performance is closely linked to the real estate sector's health, with new construction activity declining significantly [13][14]. Economic Conditions - The report highlights the challenges posed by external factors, including U.S.-China trade tensions and a weakening U.S. economy, which are expected to exert pressure on China's exports [19][20]. - Domestic consumption is also under scrutiny, with rising savings rates and declining consumer confidence impacting overall demand [21][23]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market is characterized by a split performance, with second-hand homes seeing better sales compared to new properties, driven by improvement needs and policy support [12][15]. - The report notes that the decline in new construction activity is a leading indicator that may further depress real estate investment [14]. Fiscal Policy and Monetary Conditions - The report underscores the significance of fiscal policy in the current economic landscape, particularly in light of rising debt levels and the need for effective measures to stimulate consumption [28][29]. - It also discusses the necessity for monetary policy adjustments, particularly in lowering short-term interest rates to alleviate current market distortions [40].

三月的尾声临近，A股的春季躁动行情，似乎提前感受到了夏日的凉风，但是对比来说，对岸的美股，似乎还在凛冬，还在等待春天的到来。 深层政府的对峙 过去几年，美股的出类拔萃全靠科技七姐妹撑着。Deep seek的突围，直接掀了英伟达的桌子，在东升西降宏大叙事逻辑之下，美股科技股开始祛魅。特 朗普就职典礼刚结束没多久，来参加典礼的六位顶级富豪就像是遭遇了一场财富 "滑铁卢"。短短两个月，他们的身家合计缩水一千八百亿美元。 这其中，最惨烈当属为特朗普政府鞍前马后的小马哥。特斯拉股价自24年12月18日触及488.54美元高点后呈现直线落体式下跌，时至25年3月18日，股价 跌为225.15美元，下跌超50%。 每年立春至清明，总有一场资本市场的"春耕仪式"在A股上演。海通证券复盘了20年的A股数据，发现春节后上证指数平均都有18% 的涨幅。不过，这个 数字就好像一道魔咒——每当指数要触碰20%的技术性牛市分水岭的时候，市场总要踩一踩刹车，仿佛春天才是A股真正的"业绩披露季"。 一 漩涡中的特斯拉： 不难看出，索罗斯团体在拼了命做空，特朗普政府在拼了命地做多，一场围绕特斯拉的博弈就此展开。 二 新旧对决： 犹太资本VS昂 ...

今天白天股市开盘后，全球都继续演绎risk off，也就是避险的模式， 昨晚美股大跌 （原因看这 Trumpcession ），亚太地区的股市基本都是低开 的状态，港股低开2.5%，日本低开2.5%，韩国低开2.5%，中国台湾低开3%左右，大家都差不多。 等到收盘一看，下图，韩国和中国台湾回来了一半，日本回来的更多一些，而港股直接翻红了，恒生科技涨了1.4%。 核心原因还是市场消化了一下，觉得有点跌多了， 上午10点开始，美国那边的股指期货开始触底反弹 ，带动了全球股市的止跌，另外提醒一下 大家，美国进入夏令时了，开盘变成北京时间的21:30，开盘小跌。 今天有两处略显诡异的地方，也是大家讨论比较多的。 第一，A股尾盘拉红。 沪深300和上证都是尾盘最后15-20分钟拉红的，大家觉得是不是有神秘资金护盘的力量加持，我看了一下最大的几个沪深300ETF和最大的上证50ETF， 确实尾盘放量比较明显 。 第二，是港股通南向资金，今天净卖出了40亿，但港股却一路涨。 下图，可以看到，14点之后，南向资金和港股走势明显背离了，港股通（黄线）持续卖出，但恒指（白色）一路往上。 其中一个解释，是外资的回补了。 但今天卖出 ...

美股后续风险将如何演绎？ | 证券研究报告/策略事件点评报告 | 2025 | 年 | 03 | 月 | 11 | 日 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告摘要 | 分析师：徐驰 | 美股自今年 | 月中旬以来持续回调，标普 | 指数距离高点回撤超过 | 8%，纳斯达克 |  | 2 | 500 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 | 回撤超过 | 10%，且纳指 | 月 | 日单日跌幅达到 | 4%。我们近期密集提示：美股中大 | 3 | 10 | 级别调整风险，过去两周如期演绎。这里仅将本轮美股暴跌的"与众不同"的要点列 | Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn | | 出： | 相关报告 | | | | | | | | | | 本轮全球资本市场交易的核心是抛弃"美国资产"，而非简单的"东升西降"："美元 |  | 1、《两会资本市场新政将带来哪些影 | 弱、美股崩、通胀起、经济弱、黄金强、非美资产强"这一交易的本质，在于特朗普 | | | | | | | | 响 ...

Core Viewpoint - The attractiveness of the Chinese capital market to global investors is continuously increasing, with significant capital inflows observed from various regions, particularly in technology sectors [1][9]. Group 1: Global Investment Trends - Recent data shows that global capital is actively participating in the revaluation of Chinese assets, with a notable increase in trading volumes from South Korean investors, which nearly doubled in February [2][5]. - The trend of capital flowing from U.S. tech stocks to A-shares and Hong Kong tech stocks is becoming evident, as investors seek new valuation opportunities [3][14]. - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Morgan Stanley have released optimistic reports regarding the future performance of the Chinese stock market [2][14]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - In February, South Korean investors' trading volume in Chinese stocks surged to $782 million, marking the highest level since August 2022, significantly surpassing investments in European and Japanese markets [6]. - The MSCI China Index rose by 11.8%, the Hang Seng Index by 13.4%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 17.9% in February, while the MSCI Korea Index fell by 0.8% [7][14]. Group 3: Structural Changes and Investor Sentiment - The structural characteristics of the Korean stock market, dominated by companies like Samsung Electronics, contrast with the global preference for downstream AI application companies, making Hong Kong tech assets more appealing for Korean investors [8]. - There is a notable shift in foreign capital, with an estimated inflow of approximately 20 billion yuan into A-shares and around 18 billion Hong Kong dollars into Hong Kong stocks in the first two months of the year [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that foreign investment in Chinese stocks will continue to increase due to the low valuation of Chinese assets and supportive government policies aimed at economic growth [17]. - The potential for significant returns is highlighted by the expectation that AI applications could enhance earnings per share by 2.5% annually over the next decade, potentially attracting over $200 billion in capital [15][17].

不要让思维有惯性，就不要预测市场。要完全根据入场、出场原则来进行操作，把每笔交易的"建仓-清仓"作为一个独立的样本来看待。执行一定要坚 决、一定要快。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250221— "每调买机"变"每松卖机"（-资金紧张午后转松-股市上涨=中上)】 资金面先紧后松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展1825亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有985亿元逆回购到期。净投放840亿元。 资金面先紧后松，资金价格仍偏贵，DR001在1.95%附近、DR007在 2.2%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 02. 21 ) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 2. 15 | | | 2. 80 | -33 | 40902. 48 | -13 ...