中美关税博弈

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特朗普口风变了,欧洲老朋友提醒中国:切莫相信,美国还没被打疼
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 06:03
让人意外的是,特朗普紧接着又改口了,当地时间4月25号,他在空军一号飞机上表示,除非中国做出 实质性让步,否则不会取消对华加税。远的不说,就说近一个周以来,特朗普先是承认对华加税过高, 表示下步将大幅降税,并喊话中国与美方达成协议,眼下又食言而肥,称"不会取消对华加税",这种自 相矛盾的说法,明显不是正常人所为,让人对特朗普政府对外政策的不确定性产生了深深担忧。从美股 的行情来看,特朗普每一次对华改口都有迹可循。本月中旬,特朗普对华加税145%后,美股、美元指 数大跌,特斯拉等股票损失数百亿美元,于是特朗普紧急降温,对75国"暂缓加税",并对美国进口电子 产品进行关税豁免。 4月21号美股开盘大跌,其中道琼斯指数跌超700点,纳斯达克指数跌2.6%,标普跌超2%,美元指数跌 到98。特朗普随即改口称对华税率太高,计划降税,市场松口气后,美股连续4天上扬。眼下特朗普的 态度变化,是趁着美股的涨势,对华卷土重来。对此中国的老朋友希腊给出了建议,希腊前财长亚斯尼 ·瓦鲁法基斯支持中国继续在关税问题上对抗美国,理由是特朗普的关税政策不是简单的中美博弈,而 是美国统治阶级为了维护自身权益的"主动策略",如果加税的代价由 ...
高盛:中美关税博弈2.0,下调中国GDP增长预测至4.0%!
Goldman Sachs· 2025-04-11 02:20
Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward revision of real GDP growth forecasts for China to 4.0% for 2025 and 3.5% for 2026, reflecting the impact of increased tariffs and a slowing global economy [1][10][11] Core Insights - The US has raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, significantly affecting the Chinese economy and labor market, with expectations of further policy easing from the Chinese government [1][2][11] - The report anticipates a substantial reduction in Chinese real GDP, estimating a 2.6 percentage point decrease due to the increased US tariffs, with a projected impact of 2.2 percentage points in 2025 [4][9] - The Chinese government is expected to implement expanded monetary and fiscal easing measures, including a total of 60 basis points in policy rate cuts and an increase in the augmented fiscal deficit to 14.5% of GDP [10][18] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The effective US tariff rate on Chinese goods has escalated from 11% to 125%, which is expected to exert significant pressure on the Chinese economy [4][13] - The rapid escalation of tariffs has led to a reassessment of growth forecasts, with the report highlighting the challenges in achieving the previously projected 4.5% GDP growth for this year [3][11] Policy Easing Measures - The report outlines a series of forecast revisions, including an increase in policy easing assumptions and a rise in the augmented fiscal deficit estimate [10][18] - Expectations for faster credit growth and relaxed property policies are also noted as part of the government's strategy to mitigate the tariff impact [10][18] Growth Forecasts - The revised growth forecasts indicate a significant slowdown, with 2025 and 2026 real GDP growth now projected at 4.0% and 3.5%, respectively, down from previous estimates [10][21] - The report suggests that achieving the official target of "around 5%" real GDP growth for this year may be challenging, with alternative measures potentially falling below this level [11][21]