Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Tianshan Co., Ltd. (000877.SZ), with a target price of 8.22 CNY per share based on a 0.7x PB for 2025 [1][6][21]. Core Insights - Tianshan Co., Ltd. is the largest cement producer in China with a complete industrial chain and national layout. The company is expected to benefit from cost control improvements, seasonal price increases, and policy-driven supply-side adjustments. The company is also expanding its "Cement+" business and overseas markets to create new growth avenues [1][2][3][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tianshan Co., Ltd. is a core enterprise under China National Building Material Group, with the largest cement clinker capacity in the country. The company has undergone significant growth and restructuring, becoming a national leader in the cement industry [25][31][26]. Industry Demand and Supply - Demand for cement is projected to decline by 5-6% in 2025, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow. The company is well-positioned to benefit from infrastructure projects in Xinjiang, where it holds a leading market share [2][54]. - The supply side is seeing a trend towards "anti-involution," with policies aimed at reducing overproduction. The industry is expected to improve its competitive landscape as excess capacity is gradually eliminated [2][57]. Performance and Cost Management - The company has faced pressure on revenue and profits in recent years, but the rate of decline is improving. Cost management is expected to enhance profitability, with a projected decrease in unit costs by 23 CNY in 2024 [3][4]. - The company is focusing on integrated operations and overseas expansion, with expectations of revenue growth from international projects [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company is forecasted to achieve revenues of 83.3 billion CNY in 2025, with a net profit of 1.72 billion CNY. The projections for 2026 and 2027 are 82.6 billion CNY and 82.1 billion CNY in revenue, respectively [4][21]. - The report highlights that the company's current valuation is at a historical low, providing significant upside potential [21]. Key Assumptions - The report assumes a 10% decline in cement and clinker sales in 2025, with a gradual recovery in subsequent years. It also anticipates price stability and cost reductions due to improved management practices [15][16][17].

1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market shows both supply and demand growth. Large - scale enterprises are resuming production, and the resumption of polysilicon and organic silicon production supports the demand side. The market is expected to reach a tight - balance state. However, inventory and order pressures are emerging. The main price fluctuation range is likely to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to the low level of 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, investors can consider buying on dips. The main contract has shifted to SI2511, and investors should pay attention to the high position of the 09 contract and control positions and manage risks in advance [1]. Polysilicon - In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increase, but the supply growth rate is higher, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. If there is new progress in capacity integration or clearance, polysilicon prices may rise again. Otherwise, it may fluctuate and decline under the pressure of inventory and warehouse receipts. The main price fluctuation range is likely to be between 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. After the price returns to the lower edge of the cost range, investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to buy put options to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to the high position of the 09 contract [2]. Soda Ash - The weekly production of soda ash has rebounded significantly, and the inventory has returned to the accumulation pattern, with an obvious overall surplus in the fundamentals. The spot sales have weakened recently. In the medium - term, after the photovoltaic installation rush in the second quarter, the growth of photovoltaic glass production capacity has slowed down, and the float glass production capacity is flat with supply - demand pressure in the future. There is no growth expectation for the overall demand of soda ash. Without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. It is recommended to wait for a new opportunity to short [3]. Glass - The glass market has seen continuous weakening in the recent market, with a significant weakening in spot transactions and a continuous negative feedback in the market. The inventory has shifted from manufacturers to middle - stream traders and futures - cash traders. The deep - processing orders are weak, and the rigid demand for glass is under pressure. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs capacity clearance. It is recommended to stop profiting on previous short positions and wait for new opportunities [3]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, labor shortages in Cambodia and disrupted rubber - tapping in Thailand have led to stronger raw material procurement prices. On the demand side, the replacement demand has a good performance, and the market trading activity is expected to increase. The winter snow - tire agents are in the stocking stage, and the order activity is expected to rise. In the short - term, with the concentrated release of supply - side benefits and the continuous reduction of spot inventory, rubber prices are expected to be strong. Investors should pay attention to the raw material supply during the peak production season in the main producing areas and consider shorting if the raw material supply is smooth [5]. Logs - The log futures were weak yesterday. The main benchmark delivery product's spot price remained unchanged, and the new round of foreign - market quotes remained the same. Last week, the inventory decreased significantly, and the demand remained flat. Fundamentally, the reduction of available goods of some specifications and the price increase of foreign - market quotes have supported the cost. The demand is strong, and the inventory has decreased due to less unloading at ports and strong outbound volume. The short - term market is expected to be strongly volatile, and investors are advised to buy on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - On August 12, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) increased by 160 yuan/ton to 560 yuan/ton, a 40% increase. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis (based on SI4210) increased by 160 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton, a 320% increase. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton, a 1.15% increase; the basis (Xinjiang) increased by 260 yuan/ton to 760 yuan/ton, a 52% increase [1]. Monthly Spreads - The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 65 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, a 100% increase; the spread of 2509 - 2510 decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton, a 33.33% decrease; etc. [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon production was 33.83 million tons, an increase of 1.06 million tons or 3.23% from the previous month. Xinjiang's production decreased by 2.70 million tons to 15.03 million tons, a 15.21% decrease; Yunnan's production increased by 2.49 million tons to 4.12 million tons, a 153.86% increase; Sichuan's production increased by 1.15 million tons to 4.85 million tons, a 31.05% increase. The national operating rate was 52.61%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points or 2.47% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 0.12 million tons to 11.69 million tons, a 1.02% decrease; the social inventory increased by 0.70 million tons to 54.70 million tons, a 1.30% increase [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - On August 12, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 44,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 1,185 yuan/ton to - 4,800 yuan/ton, a 19.80% increase [2]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract price decreased by 1,185 yuan/ton to 51,800 yuan/ton, a 2.24% decrease; the spread of the current month - the first - continuous contract increased by 1,280 yuan/ton to - 1,295 yuan/ton, a 49.71% increase [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - The weekly silicon wafer production was 12.02 GW, an increase of 1.02 GW or 9.27% from the previous week; the monthly polysilicon production was 10.10 million tons, an increase of 0.49 million tons or 5.10% from the previous month [2]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.40 million tons to 23.30 million tons, a 1.75% increase; the silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.96 million GW to 19.11 million GW, a 5.29% increase [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quotation was 1,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the East China quotation decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,240 yuan/ton, a 0.80% decrease; the 2505 contract price increased by 21 yuan/ton to 1,330 yuan/ton, a 1.60% increase; the 2509 contract price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1,073 yuan/ton, a 0.47% increase [3]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quotation was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Northwest quotation decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,050 yuan/ton, a 2.78% decrease; the 2505 contract price increased by 62 yuan/ton to 1,462 yuan/ton, a 4.43% increase; the 2509 contract price increased by 41 yuan/ton to 1,292 yuan/ton, a 2.93% increase [3]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate was 85.41%, an increase of 5.14 percentage points or 6.40% from the previous period; the weekly soda ash production was 74.47 million tons, an increase of 4.5 million tons or 6.42% [3]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 234,800 heavy boxes to 6,184,700 heavy boxes, a 3.95% increase; the soda ash factory inventory increased by 6.9 million tons to 186.51 million tons, a 3.86% increase [3]. Real - estate Data (Monthly Year - on - Year) - The new construction area decreased by 0.09% year - on - year, an improvement of 0.09 percentage points from the previous month; the construction area increased by 0.05% year - on - year, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points from the previous month [3]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - On August 12, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous day; the whole - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 1,110 yuan/ton, a 5.21% decrease; the Thai standard mixed rubber quotation was 14,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 1.04% [5]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 1,025 yuan/ton, a 4.06% decrease; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton, a 14.29% increase [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's rubber production was 392,600 tons, an increase of 120,400 tons or 44.23% from the previous month; Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a decrease of 24,100 tons or - 12.03% [5]. Inventory Changes - The bonded - area inventory decreased by 8,614 tons to 631,770 tons, a 1.35% decrease; the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,519 tons to 42,235 tons, a 6.34% increase [5]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - On August 12, the price of the 2509 log contract was 824.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 8 yuan/cubic meter or 0.96% from the previous day; the price of the 2511 contract was 845.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 1 yuan/cubic meter or 0.12% [7]. Cost and Supply - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.191, an increase of 0.01 from the previous day; the import theoretical cost (calculated at a 15% volume increase) was 819.65 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 0.95 yuan/cubic meter. The port freight volume in July was 173.3 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.7 million cubic meters or 1.51% from June [7]. Inventory and Demand - As of August 8, the national log inventory was 308 million cubic meters, a decrease of 9 million cubic meters or 2.84% from the previous week; the daily average outbound volume was 6.42 million cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Huafeng Chemical (002064.SZ) is given a "buy" rating due to its strong Q2 performance and cost advantages in a challenging market environment [2] - Q2 performance exceeded expectations, highlighting the company's cost advantages amid a downturn in the spandex market [2] - The price spread of adipic acid increased quarter-on-quarter, while the spandex price spread remained stable, indicating the company's resilience at the bottom of the cycle [2] Group 2 - The spandex industry is facing severe oversupply, which may accelerate capacity clearance [2]

Company Overview - Huafeng Chemical reported Q2 performance exceeding expectations, highlighting cost advantages amid weak demand for spandex and other products [2] - The company achieved revenue of 12.137 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 983 million yuan, down 35.23% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 5.823 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 7.78%, with a net profit of 479 million yuan, down 42.61% year-on-year and 5.02% quarter-on-quarter [2] Industry Analysis - The spandex industry is experiencing oversupply, with prices at historical lows and demand growth slowing, leading to a "volume over price" trend [2] - The average price of adipic acid in Q2 2025 was 7,235 yuan/ton, down 10.80% quarter-on-quarter, while the average price difference increased by 7.44% [3] - The spandex industry has faced negative gross margins for over two years, with recent production halts indicating a potential acceleration in capacity reduction [4] Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.474 billion, 3.110 billion, and 3.822 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.50, 0.63, and 0.77 yuan [2] - Current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 15.8, 12.6, and 10.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, supporting a "buy" rating [2] - The industry is expected to see a recovery in spandex prices as capacity exits the market, benefiting leading companies like Huafeng [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a healthy rotation among sectors, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching a critical technical level, just 20 points shy of the previous high of 3674 points from October 8, 2022 [2][10] - Positive external factors include the increasing probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which is beneficial for global capital markets [2][10] - Domestic policies are focused on maintaining strict controls over new listings, which is expected to stabilize the market [2][10] Sector Performance - The PEEK materials sector saw significant gains, driven by the demand for lightweight materials in humanoid robots, indicating a potential for rapid market growth [6] - The energy metals sector, particularly lithium mining, experienced a surge due to supply tightening expectations, with lithium carbonate futures prices hitting a three-month high of over 80,000 yuan per ton [7] - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in demand post-pandemic, with a notable performance in 2023 and expectations for continued growth into 2025 driven by AI advancements [8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a "slow bull" market trend for the medium to long term, with opportunities for stock selection and timing becoming increasingly important [3][11] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with high certainty in performance, reasonable valuations, and those benefiting from policy support, such as semiconductors, AI, and healthcare [3][11] - Short-term pullbacks may present opportunities for increased allocation, particularly in undervalued stocks [3][11]

Group 1: Industry Overview - In July, China's total production of power and other batteries reached 133.8 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 3.6% and a year-on-year increase of 44.3% [1] - From January to July, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 831.1 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.5% [1] - In July, the sales volume of power and other batteries in China was 127.2 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 47.8% [1] - The cumulative sales from January to July amounted to 786.2 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 60.6% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The power battery industry is experiencing significant head concentration effects, with inefficient tail-end capacities needing orderly elimination [1] - The industry has a long-standing market structure characterized by head concentration due to its technology-intensive and complex manufacturing processes [1] - The demand for power battery installations remains high due to the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle sector, leading to competitive pricing pressures [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - China's lithium battery companies have a clear advantage in global scale production capacity and high-end technology, indicating a trend of long-term stable growth [1] - The domestic new energy vehicle market demand is substantial, supported by a well-established supply chain, which facilitates participation in global competition [1] - Since 2024, capital expenditures across the battery industry chain have noticeably slowed, with improvements in supply-demand conditions and signs of price recovery in some segments [2] - Leading enterprises in various segments are expected to recover profitability and escape the impacts of supply surplus first [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced increased volatility, with lithium carbonate main contract closing at 81,000 yuan/ton, hitting the daily limit [1] - The mining activities in the Jiangxi Yichun area have been fully suspended, which accounts for approximately 12.5% of the domestic lithium carbonate monthly output [1] - The main contract for polysilicon closed at 52,985 yuan/ton, with a rise of 6.34%, driven by sustained demand in the new energy sector [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Industrial silicon, linked to the new energy supply chain, saw a price increase to 9,000 yuan/ton, up by 4.83%, influenced by rising prices of related products and expectations of supply constraints due to environmental policies [1] - The short-term outlook for the soda ash industry indicates a clear downward trend in spot prices due to overcapacity and slow demand transformation [4] - The polyester industry chain is facing profit imbalances, with PX maintaining high profits while PTA and terminal polyester profits are at low points [5] Group 3: External Influences - The crude oil market is under pressure, with the main contract falling to 489.4 yuan/barrel, down by 1.41%, due to OPEC+ production increases and expectations of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Russia regarding Ukraine [1] - The short-term market trends will be influenced by sudden disruptions in resource supply and long-term policy framework adjustments, alongside weather changes and trade policy adjustments affecting agricultural products [3]

Investment Rating - The report focuses on identifying investment opportunities in industries that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, particularly in coal, steel, and building materials sectors, which are characterized by high levels of internal competition and effective policy execution [7][19]. Core Insights - The report addresses key questions regarding the existence of a clear investment theme in the market, the establishment of a systematic and quantifiable analysis framework for industry selection, and the roadmap and timeline for investments [7]. - The macroeconomic context highlights that industrial profits are under pressure, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months as of June 2025, leading to intensified competition within industries [7][14]. - The "anti-involution" policy has emerged as a national agenda aimed at optimizing industry structures and restoring profitability, driven by strong policy guidance [7][19]. - A dual-dimensional analysis model was constructed to evaluate the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on various industries, focusing on execution efficiency and the degree of internal competition [7]. - The investment conclusion emphasizes a focus on supply-side clearing, with coal, steel, and building materials industries expected to achieve rapid supply-side clearing and a V-shaped recovery in profitability due to their characteristics of high internal competition and high execution efficiency [7][19]. Summary by Sections Current Macroeconomic Background - Industrial enterprises are facing profit pressures, with the PPI continuing to contract, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [9][14]. - The report notes a significant correlation between PPI and industrial profits, suggesting that a recovery in prices is essential for profit recovery [14]. Model and Methodology - A quantitative model was developed to screen industries that would benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on execution efficiency and internal competition levels [7]. Conclusions and Strategies - The report suggests that industries such as coal, steel, and building materials are likely to be the first to experience supply-side clearing and profitability recovery, making them core areas of focus for investment [7][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests considering buying industrial silicon futures at low prices if the price drops to the range of 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, with the main price fluctuation range expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. The main contract has shifted to SI2511, but investors are advised to control positions and manage risks in advance due to the high position in the 09 contract [3][4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Downstream复产 is beneficial for supporting the demand and price recovery of industrial silicon. In August, the industrial silicon market is expected to see a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, approaching a tight - balance state. However, inventory and warehouse receipt pressures are starting to emerge. With the anti - involution policy and potential increases in raw material costs such as coal, the price center of industrial silicon is expected to move upwards [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodic and Spot Price Trends - Upstream raw material prices are starting to rise, industrial silicon and silicon powder prices have declined, downstream aluminum alloy prices have increased, and organic silicon prices have decreased. Industrial silicon prices have decreased by 4 - 5% month - on - month. For example, as of August 8, 2025, the price of oxygen - blown Si5530 in East China was 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.64%; the price of Si4210 in East China was 9,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.43%; and the price of 99 - grade silicon in Xinjiang was 8,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5% [6][7][10]. 3.2 Supply Situation Analysis - In July 2025, industrial silicon production was about 338,300 tons, a 3% month - on - month increase and a 30% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative production from January to July was 2.2103 million tons, a 20% year - on - year decrease. In August, supply is expected to increase slightly, mainly from the partial复产 of large enterprises in Xinjiang and the increase in the operating rate in Southwest China. The total weekly output of four regions was 45,970 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,510 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6,470 tons compared to the previous month, mainly due to the复产 in Xinjiang [29][31]. - Multiple local industrial silicon industry associations proposed initiatives to oppose involution, including not selling below full cost, not adding new furnaces or supporting new capacity, promoting new technologies to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and promoting the orderly exit of backward capacity. Although the market is not optimistic about capacity clearance and self - discipline, the overall price center of industrial silicon is expected to move upwards under the anti - involution policy. In 2025, there are still projects with a total capacity of over 1 million tons likely to be put into production, but more attention should be paid to capacity clearance [3][36]. 3.3 Demand Situation Analysis - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon has been stable with a slight increase. The average price of SMM N - type re -投料 is maintained at 47,000 yuan/ton. In August, the production is expected to reach 125,000 - 130,000 tons. The weekly production has increased by 11% to 29,400 tons [38][39]. - **Silicon wafers**: The weekly production of silicon wafers has increased by 1.02GW to 12.02GW, a rise of about 9%, slightly lower than the increase rate of polysilicon [40]. - **Organic silicon**: After a fire at a large organic silicon enterprise, the operating rate has gradually increased, and the production is expected to recover to over 200,000 tons, but the supply - side pressure is increasing, which is putting downward pressure on prices [4]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The operating rate of aluminum alloy has stabilized, and the price has fluctuated upwards. In June, the production of aluminum alloy was stable with a slight increase, and exports also had a small increase. In June, the exports of industrial silicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy all recovered, but organic silicon exports were still weaker than last year [65][78]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Analysis - Raw material prices have fallen to a low level but have not broken through the lowest point in the past 8 years and have started to rise recently. In August, the electricity price in the flood season has further decreased, and the overall electricity price center has moved downwards, but it is still in the medium - high range in the past 10 years. The cost of Si5530 is about 9,800 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the cost of Si4210 is about 10,000 - 12,200 yuan/ton [93][99][104]. 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Changes - The decline in industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts and factory - warehouse inventories has narrowed, and social inventories have started to rise. Industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts have decreased slightly by 41 lots to 50,475 lots, equivalent to 252,400 tons. Social inventories total 547,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons, and factory - warehouse inventories have decreased by 1,400 tons to 170,000 tons [4].

多晶硅周报 下周会议或有新的产能整合或出清动向， 多晶硅有望偏强震荡 纪元菲 从业资格：F3039458 投资咨询资格：Z0013180 联系方式：020-88818012 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 2025.8.8 1 多晶硅观点 | 品种 | 本月期货建议 | 主要逻辑 | 未来一个月定性分析 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多晶硅 | 下周会议或有新的 向，多晶硅有望偏 | 8月初，多晶硅期货价格震荡上行，主力合约换月至PS2511，上涨3.23% | 价格高位震荡 | | | | 至50790元/吨。从供需基本面来看，8月多晶硅供需双增，但供应端增速 | | | | | 较大，依旧面临累库压力。由于前期价格大幅上涨至完全成本之上，预计 | | | | 产能整合或出清动 | 未来仓单将进一步增加。但下周或有新的产能整合或出清动向，若产能整 | | | | | 合或产能出清有新进展，多晶硅有望再次上行，以逢低试多为主。但若暂 | | | | | 无新进展，则可能会在库存及仓单增加的压力下震荡回落。目前来看，在 | | | | 强震荡，以逢 ...