今天跌破趋势了，技术面上大概率可以确认上行市的结束，从技术面看，后续要么是震荡市，要么是下 行市。我个人倾向于震荡。 有关基本面的原因，我上周五在知识星球精华区发过帖，主要是10月的金融数据，导致支持股市上涨的 因素已不再。 既然7月之前的震荡阻力位是3500点，那么现在的3500点前后应该会有强支撑。但3500强支撑的意思， 并不是说市场一定会跌到这个点（担心有人误解，还是说清楚）。 我上周在该帖子的知识星球评论区也回答过该问题。 从基本面角度，当本轮数据证伪预期之后，市场可能会对新一轮政策保持期待和预期。具体要先看12月 的经济工作会议怎么说，然后才好预期下一轮的政策。 股市方面，倾向于震荡一段时间之后，如果未来有好的政策预期，明年可能还会存在再次上攻的机会。 公众号没对外发，是因为对外没办法对数据做偏空的解读，可能会被删文。因为去年12月遇到过一次对 数据看法不好而被删文的事情。 对于股市的影响，我个人倾向于震荡市，而非进入熊市。震荡的下沿暂时不好判断（后续我会结合多个 指标来寻找概率较大的点），但短期可以看的较强的支撑位，就是过去一轮震荡的上沿阻力位。 仓位管理方面，由于我在牛市是只卖不买的，所以卖出 ...

来不及为上一个 90 抄底的大户哀悼，下一个来到战场的是 88 抄底的大户我只双币接了点现货的原因是这样亏得慢多了，我非常能理解那种心理的锚定作用，因为感性上看见 BTC 90k 的时候我也真的很想去杠杆抄底，但是理性又告诉我既然看熊了就不应该去他妈的为了一个反弹去在下楼的电梯里做引体向上。核心就是管住手对很多人来说不操作和空仓是一种煎熬，我自己也是那种一天不赚钱心里不舒服的类型 😂 尽可能降低操作频率只能靠被动锁仓了仓位管理和现货的好处就是，仓位小了之后才能拿得住。山寨和 meme 赚的钱最后要是杠杆抄底给自己抄出事来，那真的没处说理。尤其是 BTC，总觉得 BTC 会回去的，但是扛住波动靠得只有仓位管理Yuyue (@yuyue_chris):我总有种葫芦娃救爷爷的感觉一个接一个的被套牢，一个接一个的不割肉，一个接一个的来抄底来不及为上一个 96 抄底的大户哀悼，下一个来到战场的是 90 抄底的大户。。。 ...

Core Insights - The interview highlights the success of He Ran, who won the championship in the hedging arbitrage group of the national futures (options) trading competition, emphasizing the importance of adhering to one's trading strategy despite market fluctuations [1] Group 1: Trading Philosophy and Strategy - He Ran attributes his success to the principle of "sticking to one's strategy," which helped him navigate through significant profit drawdowns and periods without gains during the competition [1] - His trading approach focuses on swing trading and arbitrage, primarily utilizing cross-commodity arbitrage in stock index futures and hedging arbitrage in options, capitalizing on the considerable profit potential in a volatile market [1] Group 2: Risk Management and Emotional Control - He Ran has established clear trading principles, using K-line breakthroughs as critical references for opening positions, stop-loss, and take-profit decisions [2] - He emphasizes strict adherence to stop-loss rules, such as a maximum loss of 0.5% per trade and a daily drawdown limit of 3%, which he believes is essential for protecting capital [2] - He Ran acknowledges the impact of emotions like anxiety, greed, and fear on trading decisions and advises distancing oneself from the market during negative emotional states to avoid larger losses [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Advice for New Traders - He Ran views his recent competition success as a new starting point, focusing on strategy optimization rather than short-term rankings, aiming for long-term stable profits [2] - He offers practical advice for novice traders, recommending starting with simulated trading to achieve stable profits before transitioning to real trading with small capital, while prioritizing capital protection [2]

大赛期间，焦煤期货价格5月底创年内新低，随后反弹站上10日均线，此时他开仓买入了1手多头合约， 并且设之前的最低价为止损价。随着行情上涨，他并未急于重仓，而是一手一手地加仓。即便加仓导致 持仓成本上升，他也会同步调整止损点。"加仓后虽然持仓成本增加，但我会把止损点抬升到我的成本 线之上，这样就能确保不亏。至于能赚多少，就看后面的行情走势了。"通过这种步步为营的操作，他 稳稳抓住了此轮大涨行情。 "巴菲特有两条投资准则：第一条，不要亏钱；第二条，永远不要忘记第一条。"为了践行这一理念，他 为期货投资设定了严格的资金边界：每年在期货账户里投入的资金，必须小于持有债券每年产生的利 息。这意味着，即便期货投资出现亏损，也不会影响整体资产的安全性，从根源上守住了"不亏钱"的底 线。 在期货操作中，贺金宝同样将安全准则贯彻到底。"每次开仓买入某个品种之前，我要寻找到安全边 际，要在更低的价格买入。"为了实现这一目标，他摸索出了独特的操作方式："我会去卖出该品种近期 的虚值认沽期权。这样一来，如果该品种跌下来了，我就可以以低价行权买入；如果该品种一直涨，我 也不亏，最起码能挣到期权的保证金收入。在期货市场，首先要保证不亏， ...

Group 1 - The core concept emphasizes the importance of patience in trading, highlighting that successful trading requires waiting for the right trends and opportunities rather than making impulsive decisions [1] - The article suggests that traders should only enter the market when there is a clear and confirmed trend, avoiding speculative interventions [1][3] - It is noted that maintaining a position during a bullish market is crucial for maximizing profits, and traders should focus on exiting positions at the right time rather than trying to hit the highest or lowest points [3][4] Group 2 - The article discusses the significance of having a solid risk management strategy and the importance of learning various trading concepts, such as trend analysis and position management [6][8] - It emphasizes that a well-structured knowledge framework is essential for effective trading, as it helps traders discern useful information from the overwhelming amount of available knowledge [9] - The need for continuous learning and revisiting educational materials is highlighted, as understanding deepens over time with repeated exposure to concepts [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of profit-taking by investors and a strengthening US dollar, which diminishes the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have dropped to $4028 per ounce, nearly 5% lower than previous highs, with domestic gold prices also retreating to around 920 yuan per gram [1]. - The decline is driven by short-term profit-taking as many institutions sell off to lock in gains after gold prices exceeded $4200 [3]. - The US economy's better-than-expected data has led to a rebound in the dollar index, further reducing gold's attractiveness [3]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term fluctuations, the long-term support for gold prices remains intact, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold holdings [3]. - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for five consecutive months, indicating ongoing institutional demand [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors should differentiate between "hedging" and "speculation" to avoid losses; long-term holders may consider accumulating gold during price dips, while short-term traders should be cautious [5]. - A suggested strategy includes monitoring the $4000 key level and gradually building positions, ensuring that total exposure does not exceed 30% of the investment capital [8]. - Setting stop-loss limits is crucial to manage risk, especially for leveraged products, to prevent significant losses during market volatility [8].

Core Insights - The article highlights the journey of a trader, Gao Miao, who emphasizes the importance of self-reflection, connection with peers, and self-awareness in trading success [1][2][3] Trading Philosophy - Gao Miao believes that the core of his success lies not in pinpointing exact entry points but in holding onto profitable positions [1] - He uses valuation as a key reference for trading decisions, focusing on whether a commodity is overvalued or undervalued, and then applying technical analysis for entry and exit points [1] Lessons from Failure - Gao Miao experienced a significant loss of 3 million yuan due to a misguided short position on soda ash, which he attributed to his unwillingness to acknowledge mistakes [2] - This failure prompted a deep self-analysis and led to the establishment of a new trading system that includes mandatory stop-loss orders and a focus on position management [2] Trading System Evolution - Gao Miao's trading system continues to evolve, but he adheres to two fundamental principles: thorough research and maintaining composure amidst external distractions, and setting stop-loss orders upon opening positions [3] - He emphasizes the importance of position management as a means to control losses and maintain a balanced mindset [3] Future Aspirations - Gao Miao views his recent award as a new and challenging beginning, motivating him to aim for better drawdown control and sustainable account growth towards financial freedom [3] - He believes that true wisdom in trading lies in the ability to respond to market changes rather than attempting to predict them [3] Advice for New Traders - Gao Miao advises new traders to respect the market and trade with light positions [4]

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, with a need for confirmation signals to return to an upward trend [2][4][9] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain due to ongoing US-China trade tensions and upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, which may suppress market risk appetite [2][4][10] - The overall market (WIND All A Index) experienced a weekly increase of 3.47%, with small-cap stocks (CSI 2000) rising by 3.75% and mid-cap stocks (CSI 500) by 3.46% [10][11] Market Timing System - The distance between the 20-day moving average (MA) and the 120-day MA has narrowed, with the 20-day MA at 6264 points and the closing price at 6320 points, indicating a need for the 5-day MA to rise above the 20-day MA for confirmation [2][11][18] - The current market is characterized by a consolidation pattern, with risk preference being a key observation indicator [2][4][11] Industry Configuration - The industry trend configuration model shows that storage chips and construction machinery are still in an upward trend, while sectors benefiting from policy support include real estate and photovoltaics [3][12][18] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on domestic computing power and gaming [3][12][18] Valuation Indicators - The overall PE ratio of the WIND All A Index is around the 85th percentile, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate valuation level [3][12] - Based on short-term trend assessments, the report suggests maintaining a 60% allocation in absolute return products based on the WIND All A Index [3][12]

Group 1 - The core lesson from historical financial collapses is the importance of position control, with excessive leverage being a primary cause of fund failures [2][5][10] - Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) utilized a strategy of convergence trading, but their extreme leverage of 32:1 led to their downfall when market volatility increased [2][5] - Victor Niederhoffer's experience in 1997 illustrates similar issues, where aggressive options selling resulted in significant losses due to market downturns and forced liquidation [6][7][10] Group 2 - The 2018 "volatility apocalypse" demonstrated that even professional traders can repeat the same mistakes regarding position control and leverage [11][13] - The case of Archegos Capital Management highlights the dangers of high leverage, resulting in a $20 billion loss in a week due to margin calls [15][18] - Greed and arrogance are identified as root causes for traders taking on excessive positions, aiming for unrealistic returns by leveraging strategies beyond their means [18][22] Group 3 - Effective risk management requires traders to assume extreme price movements can occur at any time, rather than relying solely on historical data [19][22][25] - Strategies with negative skewness, which often yield small gains but can incur large losses, necessitate rigorous stress testing to determine appropriate position sizes [25] - The importance of establishing robust risk management assumptions is emphasized, as failure to do so can lead to catastrophic losses, akin to the "turkey graveyard" concept described by Nassim Taleb [25]

很多人，包括我们公司的所有人都是，有一个特别坏的习惯，就是对于某类币种（小币，中山寨，大主流），下注尺度永远都一样的，比方说小币永远都是2万刀，不会再多了。而没有对具体的机会，具体的币差异化仓位，我觉得这是缺乏思考的表现，如果确定了是大机会就应该下大注，如果觉得机会不咋样就应该减少下注。 ...