低利率如同一把双刃剑，开辟了一片理财新场景。 随着一年期定期存款利率下破1%、10年期国债收益率来到1.75%附近、纯债资产收益中枢下滑、股 票市场回暖……很多偏好稳中求进的投资者在热衷攒"新三金"（货币基金、债券基金和黄金基金）的 基础上，开始进一步寻求收益"加"法，旺盛的需求令"固收+"基金重回C位。 "最后一笔高息定期存款到期之后，我基本上不买纯固定收益类产品了，现在除了留一部分活期，其 他都转到了债基和固收+产品，未来几年我需要安家置业，投资决策奔着这个目标去。"一位90后投 资者"十二月"表示。 投资稳进派求稳求进，如何"+"才能靠得住？理财新"+"法正在成为新赛道。围绕新环境下的稳进投 资求解之道，嘉实基金近期举办了一场"固收+"投资策略分享会，联动多位基金经理、财经大V、稳 进派投资者展开分享和交流。 01 稳进投资者转身，固收+产品需求激增 作为稳进投资派的一员，"十二月"在经历市场几轮牛熊后深刻意识到，个人想实现精准择时、资产动 态搭配难度不小，固收+基金成为她追求收益和平衡风险的省心之选。 像"十二月"这样的投资者正越来越多。Wind数据显示，截至今年上半年，全市场固收+产品规模已突 破1 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 15 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com ——理财规模跟踪月报（2025 年 8 月） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 8 月理财规模平稳增长。我们测算，截至 2025 年 8 月末，理财规模合计 32.92 万亿 元，较上年末增加 2.97 万亿元，较上月末增加 0.25 万亿元。2025 年 8 月理财规模 增量 0.25 万亿，2021-2024 年的 8 月份理财规模平均增量为 0.26 万亿，与季节性 规律一致。尽管 7 月及 8 月股市大幅上涨，但 2025 年 7 月和 8 月理财规模合计增 量达 2.25 万亿，高于 2022-2024 年的同期增量。 8 月理财公司纯固收理财平均当月年化收益率相对平稳。2022 年初以来，理财公司 当月新发人民币固收类理财的平均业绩比较基准震荡下行，2025 年 8 月理财公司新 发人民币固收类理财的平均业绩比较基准上限为 2.81%，平均业绩比较基准下限为 2.23 ...

（原标题：低利率时代怎么投资？这场固收 + 圆桌论坛，三大嘉宾讲透了！） 存款利率跌破 1%，把钱存银行，利息越来越少；A 股慢牛启势，想赚权益红利又怕风险太高 —— 当 下理财的两难困境，想必不少人都感同身受。 9 月 9 日天弘基金特邀三位投资领域重磅嘉宾，打造「低 利率时代，固收 + 投资如何顺势而为」圆桌论坛，从宏观趋势到资产配置，从产品挑选到实操技巧， 一站式解答了大家的投资困惑。这场论坛为何值得关注？核心干货又有哪些？我们为你整理好了精华内 容。 一、这场论坛有哪些看点？ 1. 国盛证券熊园：宏观趋势与利率走向，这几点最关键 作为首席经济学家，熊园对经济大方向的判断，是投资的 "指南针"。他提到，今年上半年中国经济增 速达 5.3%，全年实现 5% 目标基本无虞，但下半年经济存在下行压力，且地产下行周期尚未走完，从 销售面积看，需从当前 8 亿平方米降至 6 亿平方米，按每年降 10% 算，至少还需 2 年。 关于大家最关心的利率，他给出明确判断：短期（1-2 年）利率大幅涨跌概率小，10 年国债大概率在 1.6%-1.8% 区间震荡；若美联储下半年连续降息，中国央行可能跟随降 10 个基点，届时 ...

一创固收：股市大涨，资金好转中短下行，长端难言企隐 今日日内振幅较宽，机构分歧较大。资金边际好转带动下，中短端收益率小幅下行，长端和超长端仍难 言企稳，收益率小幅上行，曲线显著走陡。 财通证券:中国步入低利率时代债市高波，复盘日债QE路径觅参考 财通证券在研报中指出：中国已步入低利率时代，债市高波震荡特征显现。复盘日本QE政策脉络及日 债利率波动具有重要参考意义。 日本QE历经五阶段，从1999年零利率到2024年取消负利率与YCC，呈"加码-调控-退出"特征。QE下日 债利率长期低于2%，分三阶段波动：2001-2013年宽幅震荡，2014-2020年YCC压制，2021年至今随政 策退出上行。 低利率下日债波动核心由宽财政预期、货币宽松转向、基本面回暖驱动，海外利率与风险偏好亦有影 响。 对比日本，当前中国财政力度与海外QE阶段存在差距，基本面待提振且化债持续推进，央行需配合财 政发力，债市虽有波动但无系统性走熊风险，建议以配置思维把握利率高点，同时需警惕经济超预期复 苏、财政发力加码等风险。 浙商银行FICC:利空扰动债市熊陡，后市盼明确指引 现券方面，10年期国债活跃券250011收益率下行0.75B ...

最近的看点在于，新品推陈出新，增强收益的策略变得越来越"时髦"。 比如中欧的多资产团队，业内也算颇有名气了。最近他们有只新品很有趣——中欧优利，主打低波策略固收+。构造上，虽然还是延续经典的债券（不低 于80%）+权益（5%-20%）模式，然而，增强策略做了升级——不仅有A股、可转债，同时可投港股、ETF。多种资产类别，多元策略的融合，还挺切合 现在的市场审美的。 这种迭代的新玩法，让固收+能够更好地发挥多元资产的优势，产品竞争力无疑是增加的。 十年期国债收益率在1.8%附近徘徊已久。低利率时代，投资者对固收+类产品的兴趣更为浓厚。 低利率时代，投资者转向"固收+" 固收+产品中，二级债基现在是主流品种。二级债基可以参与股票二级市场，一般股票仓位不超过20%，是股市环境转好时的一种产品选择。 根据wind数据，过去一年（截止9月3日），二级债基指数上涨10.42%，沪深300指数上涨37.53%。而过去5年，二级债基指数上涨2.75%，跑赢沪深300 （沪深300下跌1.55%）。二级债基指数曲线，过去10年看，总体是比较平滑的。 这类产品的特点，是绝对收益导向，而且追求目标收益约束下的最小化回撤和波动。 图 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Since 2025, products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity have attracted significant funds. Money market funds and bond funds have seen a notable decline in net asset value growth, while fixed-income wealth management products continue to grow due to their yield advantage over time deposits. Insurance premium income growth was high before the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate but has since decreased. Equity and hybrid funds have maintained high-speed growth [1]. - Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other. The current deposit relocation is related to factors such as the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. As the equity market continues to rise, deposit relocation accelerated in July [2]. - In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment. For example, the proportion of pure fixed-income funds has decreased in the United States, Europe, and Japan during low-interest-rate periods. In China, the proportion of bond and money market funds among all public funds has decreased since 2025 as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [3]. - In the short term, the relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically. This can be observed from the following perspectives: the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease as the stock market rises; the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate has returned to the "normal" range; and an increase in the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions may indicate a slowdown in non-bank fund relocation [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity attract significant funds 1.1 Decreased attractiveness of non-equity assets to funds - Cash management products have limited appeal. During the current deposit relocation period, money market funds have grown more than cash management wealth management products. Since 2025, the yields of both types of assets have dropped to low levels, with cash management wealth management products having an annualized yield of about 1.6% [12]. - The bond market's profitability has declined, but it still offers an advantage over time deposits. Since the end of 2023, bond funds and fixed-income wealth management products have grown rapidly. However, since 2025, the bond market has entered a "triple low" era of low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility, leading to a decline in the profitability of pure bonds and a slowdown in the growth of bond fund scale. Currently, the annualized yield of pure bond funds is about 2.7%, and that of fixed-income plus funds is about 2.6%, still significantly higher than the time deposit rate of about 1% [12]. - The attractiveness of insurance products has diminished. After the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate in September, the "panic buying" effect has weakened. The market's response to this round of "panic buying" has been muted due to factors such as the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the guaranteed interest rate, the exhaustion of consumers' purchasing power from previous rounds of "panic buying," and the decreasing marginal impact of interest rate adjustments on consumers' willingness to move funds in a low-interest-rate environment [17]. 1.2 More funds may flow into the equity market - Equity funds have experienced high-speed growth, and the stock market is attractive to funds. Since September 2024, as the stock market has continued to rise, the net asset value of equity funds has maintained high-speed growth, and the growth rate of hybrid funds has turned positive. The yields of equity and hybrid products have been increasing, and they are expected to attract more funds in the future [22]. - In the future, more funds may flow into the equity market. In a low-interest-rate environment, equity assets are more cost-effective than pure bonds. As the equity market rises, the overall risk appetite has increased, and residents and non-bank funds may flow more into the equity market. Since July 2025, the increase in wealth management products has been lower than in previous years, indicating that more funds have flowed into other non-bank institutions and products. The risk appetite of non-bank institutions has increased significantly, as evidenced by the growth of convertible bond ETFs and the increase in institutional new account openings in the stock market [25]. II. How long will the relocation of deposits and non-bank funds continue? 2.1 Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other - The current deposit relocation is related to multiple factors, including the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. Since 2022, there have been multiple rounds of deposit interest rate cuts. After the first four cuts, the last three cuts had a limited impact on deposit relocation. In 2024, the ban on manual interest supplements led to a significant decrease in deposit growth and a large increase in non-bank deposit growth, but the relocation reversed after the standardization of interbank deposit interest rates in November. The rise of the stock market has also driven deposit relocation. In September 2024, non-bank deposit growth increased significantly due to the stock market rally but then declined. In July 2025, the increase in risk appetite at home and abroad led to a rise in the equity market, and institutional funds and deposits moved from pure bonds to fixed-income plus and equity products, resulting in a significant increase in non-bank deposit growth [30][35]. - Deposit relocation accelerated in July as the equity market continued to rise. After the state-owned large banks initiated a new round of deposit interest rate cuts in May, deposit relocation was not obvious in June. However, in July, the combined deposits of residents and enterprises decreased by 2.57 trillion yuan, the highest in the past four years. Resident deposit growth decreased slightly, while non-bank deposit growth rebounded significantly to 15% [36]. - Deposit relocation may continue. Historically, deposit relocation has been significant during major stock market rallies, such as from 2005 - 2007, 2014 - 2015, 2016 - 2017, 2019 - 2021, and since September 2024. Even after the stock market reaches a peak and retraces, deposit relocation usually continues for some time. Since July, the stock market has risen significantly, and if it continues to rise, deposit relocation may persist [37]. 2.2 In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment - Non-bank asset allocation adjustment is a typical feature of a low-interest-rate environment. In recent years, as broad-based interest rates have declined, the profitability of fixed-income assets such as bonds has gradually decreased. Driven by factors such as the introduction of policies to stabilize the capital market in September 2024, technological breakthroughs since 2025, and the expectation of "anti-involution" policies, the equity market has continued to break through, and non-bank institutional funds have shifted from pure fixed-income assets to equity and fixed-income plus assets [41]. - Similar trends have been observed in other countries. In the United States, during the two rounds of interest rate cuts from 2007 - 2016 and 2018 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market mutual funds decreased from a high of 56% in 2008 to about 40% in 2021. In Europe, from 2012 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market UCITS funds decreased from 45% in 2012 to about 36% at the end of 2021. In Japan, after entering a low-interest-rate era in the late 1990s, the scale of bond and money market funds declined rapidly, and their proportion decreased from a peak of 77% to about 7.0% in March 2024 [41][42][49]. - In China, the scale of bond and money market funds has grown rapidly in recent years, and their proportion among all public funds increased from about 55% to about 65% in 2024. However, since 2025, the proportion has decreased as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [49]. 2.3 In the short term, when will the relocation of non-bank funds slow down periodically? - The relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically as the equity market fluctuates and interest rates change. This can be observed from the following perspectives: - Stock-bond valuation and bond-credit valuation: As the stock market rises significantly, the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease. As of the end of August, the risk premium of the WIND300 ex-financial index has decreased from more than two standard deviations above the mean to less than one standard deviation below the mean, and the risk premium of the dividend index has decreased to near two standard deviations below the mean. Insurance funds and other institutions may slow down the relocation of funds. Bonds still have a significant advantage over loans, and as the bond market rebounds from a low level, the cost of real economy financing continues to decline, making bonds attractive to banks [52]. - The spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate: Before 2024, the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate fluctuated around 70BP. In 2024, as broad-based interest rates declined, the spread was compressed to about 50BP. From December 2024 to January 2025, interest rates declined rapidly, further compressing the spread. Since 2025, the spread has oscillated between 10BP and 40BP. However, since late July, as the bond market has continued to rebound, the spread has gradually risen to about 45BP, returning to the "normal" range before 2025, indicating that the market has corrected the previously overdrawn expectations, and non-bank funds may slow down the selling of bonds [57]. - The scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions: As the equity market rally slows down and interest rates rise, institutions are increasing their purchases of 30-year ETFs, and the long-short ratio of TL positions is rising. On the one hand, the growth of fixed-income plus products has increased the demand for 30-year ETFs. On the other hand, some institutions may buy 30-year ETFs and TL to hedge against equity market risks. When the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions continue to rise, it may indicate a slowdown in the relocation of non-bank funds [61].

Core Viewpoint - The forum titled "Low Interest Rate Era, How to Invest with Fixed Income+" aims to address investment strategies in a low interest rate environment, focusing on asset allocation and product selection [1][2]. Group 1: Forum Highlights - The forum will feature three prominent guests who will discuss macroeconomic trends, asset allocation strategies, and practical tips for selecting fixed income products [1][2]. - Key topics include the future direction of major asset classes, analysis of star "fixed income+" products like Tianhong Yongli, and essential advice for individual investors on selecting and holding fixed income products [2][3]. Group 2: Guest Speakers - Jiang Xiaoli, Director of Tianhong's Fixed Income Business, will present on major asset allocation directions for the coming year, highlighting the Tianhong Yongli Bond Fund's historical performance, which has achieved a cumulative return of 167.31% since its inception [1][2]. - Xiong Yuan, Chief Economist at Guosheng Securities, will provide insights on domestic macroeconomic trends, deposit rate forecasts, and alternative investment strategies [2]. - Wangjing Boge, a seasoned investor, will discuss the outlook for the equity market in 2024-2025 and strategies for ordinary investors regarding fixed income allocations [2][3]. Group 3: Forum Details - The forum is scheduled for September 9, from 1:30 PM to 3:00 PM, and will be accessible online via the Tianhong Fund's Weibo live stream [2][4]. - The event will include a Q&A session addressing 19 core questions from investors, allowing for direct interaction with the speakers [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Currently, the report has a phased and clear bullish view on the bond market [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market and the return on 10-year Treasury bonds are relatively consistent, and the economy may have stabilized at a low level in the first half of 2025, but there is still downward pressure [1][4]. - The loan growth rate continues to decline, the proportion of loans on the asset side of banks tends to decrease, and the financial investment proportion of large banks has increased since early 2023 [1]. - The cost rate of interest-bearing liabilities of listed banks has declined quarter by quarter, and it is expected to further decline in the next few years [1]. - The decline in bank liability costs will support the bond yield to oscillate downward, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of government bonds [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 From the Semi-annual Report of the Entire A-share Market to See the Economic and Bank Operating Pressures - **From the Performance of the Entire A-share Market to See the Economy** - The revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market can reflect the nominal GDP growth rate to a certain extent, and it is more consistent with the return on 10-year Treasury bonds than the nominal GDP growth rate [5][6]. - In the first half of 2025, the revenue growth rate of the entire A-share market was 0.0%, and the net profit growth rate attributable to the parent was 2.4%. The growth rate of the entire A-share market excluding finance, petroleum, and petrochemicals was under pressure, reflecting the large pressure on real - economy growth [4][10]. - **From the Performance of the Bank Sector to See the Economy** - The performance of the banking industry is closely related to the economy. In the past two years, the performance growth of the banking industry has been significantly under pressure, and the net interest margin of commercial banks has continued to decline [13][16]. - As of the second quarter of 2025, the net interest margin of commercial banks was 1.42%, a record low, and the average net interest margin of various types of listed banks has also decreased significantly [16][18]. - **From the Liabilities of the Entire A-share Market to See the Financing Demand** - Since the first quarter of 2024, the long - term borrowing of the entire A - share market (excluding finance, petroleum, and petrochemicals) has stagnated, reflecting the weak financing demand of market - oriented enterprises [20]. - The social financing growth rate generally leads the nominal GDP growth rate by 1 - 2 quarters, and the social financing growth rate may decline in the next few months [23]. 3.2 What Changes Have Occurred in the Bank's Assets and Liabilities? - **The Loan Growth Rates of Large and Small and Medium - Sized Banks Have Both Declined** - As of the end of July 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.9%, the lowest level since the beginning of 2011 [25]. - The growth rate of personal housing loans is under pressure of negative growth, and the loan growth rates of large and small and medium - sized banks have both declined. The proportion of loans of listed banks has tended to decline since the second quarter of 2024 [25][29]. - **The Proportion of Deposits on the Liability Side of Large Banks Has Decreased, and the Proportion of Deposits of Small and Medium - Sized Banks Has Remained Stable** - Since early 2023, the proportion of deposits of the six major banks has decreased from 81.4% in the first quarter of 2023 to 76.0% in the second quarter of 2025, while the average proportion of deposits of listed joint - stock banks has increased [25]. - The large - scale banks' corporate deposit growth has slowed down, and the large - scale banks' dependence on non - bank inter - bank deposits has increased [39][45]. 3.3 Which Banks Had More Financial Investment Growth in the First Half of 2025? - Since early 2023, the proportion of financial investment of large banks has rebounded. As of the end of June 2025, the overall financial investment of A - share listed banks reached 97.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 30.3% of assets [51]. - In the first half of 2025, ICBC and CCB had more financial investment growth, while a small number of joint - stock banks' financial investment decreased. The financial investment increments of large banks, joint - stock banks, and city and rural commercial banks were all significant [55][59]. - As of the end of July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the bond investment of the four major banks reached 21.2%, the highest since 2017, and that of small and medium - sized banks was 18.3% [60]. 3.4 How Much Has the Cost of Interest - Bearing Liabilities of Banks Decreased? - In 2025, the decline of the current deposit ratio has slowed down. Since early 2018, the current deposit ratio has dropped significantly, and it is expected to further decline in the future, but the decline rate may slow down [61]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the deposit interest - payment rate has decreased significantly. The overall deposit interest - payment rate of A - share listed banks in the first half of 2025 was 1.65%, a year - on - year decrease of 32BP [65]. - The cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities has declined quarter by quarter. It is expected to further decline in the next few years, and may drop below 1.65% in the fourth quarter of 2025 [67]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - It is expected that the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year by year in the next five years, which will support the bond yield to oscillate downward, and the return on 10 - year Treasury bonds will follow the decline of bank interest - bearing liabilities [69]. - In the low - interest - rate era, it is recommended to reduce the return expectation of bond investment, and commercial bank self - operation should increase the allocation of government bonds [72][73].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities for banks in China under a low interest rate environment, emphasizing the need for effective asset-liability management to ensure sustainable and stable operations in the banking sector [4]. Group 1: Positive Changes in Asset-Liability Management - The pricing behavior in the deposit market is gradually becoming more standardized, with the potential for a wider downward adjustment in deposit interest rates. Since the establishment of the market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit rates in 2022, banks have regularly lowered the upper limit of deposit rates, leading to a notable decrease in the average company deposit interest rate by 14 basis points to 1.68% in 2024 [6]. - The implementation of self-regulatory mechanisms has introduced measures to standardize deposit market pricing behaviors, such as prohibiting high-interest deposit solicitation and establishing a deposit bidding rate reporting mechanism [6]. Group 2: Challenges in Loan Market - The irrational competition in the loan market is expected to converge, with a potential slowdown in the downward trend of loan interest rates. From December 2019 to March 2025, the 1-year and 5-year LPRs decreased by 105 and 120 basis points, respectively, while the average interest rate on newly issued loans fell by 200 basis points, indicating excessive downward adjustments by banks [7]. - Regulatory authorities are intensifying efforts to manage "involution" in the banking sector, urging banks to set reasonable loan interest rates based on risk pricing principles. This includes ensuring that personal housing and consumer loan rates do not fall below certain thresholds [7].

Group 1: Securities Industry Performance - The securities sector has shown significant growth, with a total net profit of 109.7 billion, representing an increase of over 50% compared to last year's mid-year report of 68.4 billion [1][2] - The total operating revenue for the securities sector reached 265.3 billion this year, up from 246.9 billion last year, indicating a modest growth rate [4] - Among the listed securities firms, CITIC Securities led with an operating revenue of 33.04 billion, followed by several others exceeding 10 billion [4][5] Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - The total revenue of listed banks increased from 2.89 trillion to 2.92 trillion, with net profits rising from 1.106 trillion to 1.115 trillion [9][11] - Six major banks have all reported slight revenue growth, although 12 listed banks experienced revenue declines [9][10] - The total cash dividends distributed by the six major banks reached 204.66 billion, maintaining a consistent dividend payout ratio of around 30% [13] Group 3: Insurance Industry Performance - The insurance sector has also seen robust growth, with total operating revenue for five listed insurance companies rising from 1.18 trillion to 1.33 trillion over three years [23][24] - Net profits for these insurance companies increased from 173.5 billion to 204 billion, with the fastest growth seen in New China Life Insurance at 33.5% [24][25] - The total proposed dividends from the insurance companies for this year is approximately 293.36 billion, up from 269.64 billion last year [26] Group 4: Management Changes - A significant number of chairpersons in the securities, banking, and insurance sectors are approaching retirement age, indicating an upcoming wave of leadership changes [6][12] - In the securities sector, 11 chairpersons are over 60 years old, while in the banking sector, 10 chairpersons are also over 60 [6][12] Group 5: Challenges in the Banking Sector - Smaller, unlisted banks are facing significant challenges, including closures, mergers, and failed IPO attempts, with 210 small banks approved for dissolution or merger this year alone [14][16][20] - The trend of bank branch closures is accelerating, with nearly 4,000 branches closed in the first half of 2025 [16][20]