曾几何时，风口、机会与短期的高收益是人们茶余饭后的谈资；如今，安稳、存续与如何构筑家庭财务的"压舱石"，成了更普遍的关切。当六大行相继调整 中长期定期存款产品，市场传递出的信号愈发清晰：利率中枢下行或成长期趋势，传统储蓄方式的保值效能正在经受考验。在波动成为常态的环境里，何处 才能寻得一份兼具安全性与成长性的长久依靠？ 在低利率成为新常态的今天，寻找既能守护本金安全、又能分享经济增长成果的财富管理工具，已成为众多家庭的迫切需求。分红型保险产品，因其"保证 +分红"的独特结构，正成为连接"安全"与"成长"的优选桥梁。 鑫如意（臻享版）终身寿险（分红型） ①精准定位于此，以"终身保障"为确定性底色，以"分红机制"为参与市场提供助力，聚焦"保障+财富增长"的双重价 值，旨在为客户提供覆盖全生命周期的周全守护。 这款产品的设计，紧紧围绕三个核心特点展开："终身增""享分红""多选择"。所谓"终身增"，意味着保单的有效保险金额自第二个年度起，每年按上一年的 1.0175倍稳健递增。这份增长白纸黑字写入合同，独立于市场短期波动，如同为家庭资产安装了一台稳定运转的"复利引擎"筑牢"底仓"。 在这一背景下，平衡"确定"与"可 ...

Core Insights - The liquidity in the U.S. financial system is being significantly impacted by JPMorgan Chase's strategic shift of $350 billion from reserves at the Federal Reserve to U.S. Treasury securities, leading to a contraction in overall system reserves [3] - JPMorgan's holdings of U.S. Treasuries surged from $231 billion to $450 billion, nearly doubling, as the bank aims to lock in future yields before anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - The actions of a single institution, such as JPMorgan, can have substantial effects on overall market liquidity, raising concerns among regulators about financial stability [4][5] Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase has moved $350 billion from Federal Reserve reserves to U.S. Treasury securities, causing total bank deposits at the Fed to drop from $1.9 trillion to $1.6 trillion [3] - Excluding JPMorgan, the remaining 4,000 banks have seen a net increase in reserves, indicating that JPMorgan's actions are counteracting the overall banking sector's liquidity [3] - The bank's strategy is driven by the declining interest on reserves (IORB), which has decreased from a peak of 5.4% [3] Group 2 - JPMorgan's Treasury holdings increased significantly, with market speculation suggesting the bank is extending asset duration and using interest rate swaps to prepare for a low-rate environment [3][4] - The bank received $15 billion in interest from the Federal Reserve in 2024, which constitutes about 25% of its projected annual profit of $58.5 billion [4] - The ongoing debate regarding the Federal Reserve's interest on reserves and its impact on credit availability for the real economy has been reignited, highlighting potential conflicts between individual bank strategies and macroeconomic stability [4][5]

今天市场跌的比较多，先聊点别的。 知识星球里，有不少大学生球友，他们的问题主要是和找工作、选offer相关，从这轮的秋招来看，能明显感觉到，今年金融专业的同学找工作， 难度相当大。 其一，帮大家分析一下金融行业的趋势，让大家意识到，很多问题其实是行业的共性问题，和个人关系不大； 其二，如果能通过这些趋势，帮大家辨明一下方向，那就更好了。 我梳理了一下，可能有几方面原因。 第一，金融行业供给侧改革加速，行业龙头集中化。 这块，我们在《 中小金融机构更危险了？ 》里深度聊过，供给侧改革的本质，是同质化产能的出清，同质化产能的背后是以往 的 地方金融自由 化，而地方金融自由化的背景是地方政府第二财政的派生需求，或者说是过往地方经济发展模式的结果之一。 在出清的过程中，意味着岗位数量的下滑—— 以农商行合并为例 ，各个县域农商行，本来都有自己的一整套班子，比如运营、科技、审计等 等，现在几十家农商行合并成一个了，原有的总行职能管理岗，以及各种中后台岗位，自然就编制过剩了。 这块可能是影响最大，也是最直接的。 第二，客户线上化，叠加代际变化，线下网点需求大幅缩减。 去年，全国银行业关闭的网点数量是2500多家，而截至1 ...

2025年12月12日，2025第十届中国交易银行年会暨第15届中国经贸企业最具信赖的金融服务商评选"金贸奖"颁奖典礼在北京隆重举行，商务部原副部长、中 国国际经济交流中心资深专家咨询委委员魏建国出席年会并致辞。以下为发言全文。 刚从央视演播厅赶过来，外面已经下起了大雪，瑞雪兆丰年，应该是一个大好收成的新年。今天我想用六分钟讲一个主题，就是在当前低利率的时代背景 下，银行业如何破局、融合、赋能实体经济。 可以说当前全球经济增长放缓，货币政策持续宽松，也就是说今后一段时期，低利率甚至负利率有可能成为常态，这也给我国银行业带来了前所未有的挑 战。息差不断收窄、利率空间压缩、市场竞争加剧，对于传统依靠存贷款利率差盈利模式的我国银行造成了严重的冲击。我倒认为这是银行业的一大机遇， 低利率时代是银行转型和创新的大好时期。 首先，我们要转变观念，必须以当前单纯的金融中介转变为产业金融的参与者，要看到未来金融与产业的关系，相互依存、相互促进，这种关系是以后长远 的关系。七十年代的时候，我搞外贸，中国银行也是我们外贸很好的合作伙伴，外贸和金融的关系可以用一句话概括"外贸发展我发展，我与外贸共存亡"， 那个时候我们把这种关系当 ...

新华财经上海12月12日电（记者王淑娟、潘清）最新发布的《强势增长——2025年安联全球财富报告》 显示，2024 年全球私人家庭金融资产达到269万亿欧元，同比增长8.7%。在全球增量中，中国贡献为 19.8%，是全球财富增长中占比较高的来源之一。 安联基金副总经理兼首席投资官郑宇尘也认为，当前的政策环境演变和向好的产业趋势推动了中国股市 向好，且股票估值隐含的风险溢价处于合理水平。A股盈利水平预计在2025年底企稳，为来年的慢牛行 情奠定了基础。投资者可以关注多个具备增长潜力的领域，特别是科技、自主可控和创新药板块，以及 新消费和受益于海外市场拓展的结构性机会。 直面"低利率"时代挑战，金融企业资产负债管理有何新路径？"低利率时代是专业化转型的新起点。"安 联资管总经理兼首席投资官张光指出，中国保险业正站在变革的关键节点，传统的利差依赖模式正在被 重塑，但挑战与机遇并存，政策支持和资本市场变革为专业资管机构创造了前所未有的价值空间。 安联保险权益投资部总经理杜毅指出，中国权益市场正迎来三大转变：低利率环境推动险资等长期资金 持续流入，全球产业趋势引领的科技板块盈利确定性提升。展望2026年，市场预计将进入 ...

固收定期报告 证券研究报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 10 日 11 月理财规模稳步增长 ——理财规模跟踪月报（2025 年 11 月） 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 11 月理财规模稳步增长。我们测算，截至 2025 年 11 月末，理财规模合计 34.0 万 亿元，较上年末增加 4.0 万亿元，较上月末增加 0.35 万亿元。2025 年 11 月理财规 模增加 0.35 万亿，2023-2024 年的 11 月份理财规模平均增加 0.37 万亿，与季节性 规律接近。尽管三季度股市大幅上涨，但 2025 年三季度理财规模合计增量达 1.46 万亿，高于 2022-2024 年的同期增量。 11 月理财公司纯固收理财平均当月年化收益率回落。2022 年初以来，理财公司当月 新发人民币固收类理财的平均业绩比较基准震荡下行，我们测算，截至 2025 年 11 月末，理财规模合计 34.0 万亿元，较上年末增加 4.0 万亿元，较上月末增加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of phasing out five-year deposits indicates the end of an era where banks relied on high-interest, long-term deposits for easy profits, signaling a shift in the banking landscape [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Five-Year Deposits - Five-year deposits have been a staple since the establishment of the banking system in New China [2]. - In the early 1990s, five-year deposit rates peaked at 13.9%, allowing significant interest earnings [3][4]. - The economic environment during that time was characterized by high growth and inflation, leading to a strong demand for bank loans [6][7]. Group 2: Current Banking Environment - The current financial landscape has shifted to an "asset shortage" era, where there is an abundance of money but a scarcity of viable investment opportunities [11]. - Banks are facing dual challenges: declining interest rates and a decrease in loan demand from both individuals and businesses [13]. - The low-interest environment is expected to persist, affecting the viability of long-term, high-yield deposit products [14]. Group 3: Changes in Investment Products - The availability of safe investment options like deposits, government bonds, and insurance products is diminishing, with yields decreasing significantly [21][23]. - Trust products, once favored by wealthy individuals, are facing a crisis due to defaults linked to the real estate sector [25]. - Bank wealth management products have transitioned to a net value model, requiring investors to accept the risk of potential losses [27]. Group 4: Global Comparisons and Strategies - In mature markets, the trend is towards shorter deposit terms, with banks encouraging shorter-term savings [17][18]. - The U.S. and Japan have seen their citizens adapt to low-interest environments by shifting investments towards equities and other assets [35][46]. - Japanese citizens have historically maintained a high proportion of savings in deposits, but this has limited their investment opportunities [46]. Group 5: Future Investment Strategies - With the end of the "no-risk, high-yield" era, investors must either accept higher risks or find alternative ways to secure current interest rates [32][33]. - Strategies from other countries, such as embracing equity investments or utilizing savings insurance to lock in rates, may offer insights for domestic investors [35][45]. - The current environment suggests that long-term savings insurance products may still provide reasonable returns, but investors should be cautious about liquidity needs [56][58].

养老投资面临低利率时代挑战 之所以要重视权益投资，究其原因，与低利率的大环境息息相关。 转眼又到12月，随着一年即将结束，对于有个人养老金投资需求的投资者来说，也到了最后的配置节点，不少投资者都会规划每年12000元的税优额度。 在选择个人养老金的投资品种时，或许大家会习惯性地关注中低风险的稳健型产品。但事实上，在自身风险承受范围内，不妨适度关注风险收益更高的权益 类资产，提升相关配置比例，有助于提升养老金长期储备潜力。 环顾全球，低利率环境非一时之景。欧美等主要经济体利率中枢普遍下移，我国十年期国债收益率现在为1.85%左右。在利率下行的背景下，银行定期、理 财产品、货币基金等产品的收益率相比过去日渐走低。不少银行一年期定期存款利率已经跌破1%，货币基金的7日年化收益率也进入了"1时代"，资产的增 值速度大大放缓。 若养老资金长期投资于年化收益不足2%的产品，在经过数十年的积累后，其实际购买力很有可能因通胀的侵蚀而"缩水"。因此，在低利率的大背景下，过 度依赖传统固收类资产，可能难以达成财富增值的目标，需要寻找新的思路来提高养老投资的长期回报。 拥抱权益是重要的破局方法 适度提升权益资产的权重，是应对低利率 ...

最近有朋友在银行办完定期存款后，跟我吐槽了一件事。银行客户经理推荐她买一个3%的理财产品，她没同意，还是坚持存了三年期定期存 款，利率1.5%。那位经理的表情特别值得玩味，就像在看一个"舍近求远"的人。但这位朋友的选择，其实代表了现在大多数普通人的想法。为 什么一个理财产品能给3%甚至4%的收益，我们反而都在争抢1%到2%的定期存款呢？这背后有什么道道吗？ 咱们先把事实摆出来。2025年到现在，六大国有银行的定期存款利率基本保持在这个水平：三个月0.8%、六个月1%、一年期1.1%、两年期 1.2%、三年期1.5%、五年期1.55%。有些中小银行的利率稍微高一点，但也就在1.3%到2%左右徘徊。相对比之下，某些银行的短期理财产品 能达到2.6%以上，有的保本理财甚至能做到3.15%，更别说那些预期收益在3%到4%的产品了。从数字上看，3%和1.5%差了一倍，这笔账怎么 算都应该选理财啊。 但现实中发生的事情恰恰相反。数据显示，定期存款的增长速度反而超过了活期存款。以工商银行为例，2023年个人定期存款增长了 23.26%，而定期存款的增长幅度远高于客户存款平均余额13.8%的增长。招商银行的零售定期存款更是同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry in China is undergoing significant changes in deposit rules, with the discontinuation of five-year fixed deposits and increased thresholds for large time deposits, impacting the financial planning of ordinary citizens [1][2][3] Group 1: Changes in Deposit Products - Major state-owned banks, including ICBC, ABC, BOC, CCB, and others, have completely stopped offering five-year fixed deposit products [2] - The minimum investment for three-year large time deposits has surged from 200,000 to as high as 1,000,000 or even 5,000,000 in some banks [3] - The interest rates for three-year large time deposits have dropped to between 1.5% and 1.75%, significantly lower than previous years [2][3] Group 2: Reasons Behind Changes - The primary reason for these adjustments is the pressure on net interest margins, which have fallen to 1.42%, nearing a critical profitability threshold for banks [5] - Decreasing loan interest rates and intense competition for deposits have led to reduced income from loans while maintaining high costs for deposit liabilities [5] Group 3: Impact on Ordinary Citizens - The changes have severely affected individuals with savings of 100,000 or 200,000 who relied on stable interest income from deposits [6][7] - The potential interest earned from a one-year deposit of 100,000 is approximately 950, which is insufficient for basic expenses [6] - Long-term financial planning for purposes such as retirement or education has been disrupted, with the risk of reinvestment at lower rates after three years [7] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The "ladder deposit method" is suggested as a way to balance liquidity and returns by splitting savings into different term deposits [9] - For those with over 200,000, large time deposits can be considered, focusing on liquidity rather than high thresholds, as many products offer the same interest rate regardless of the investment amount [12] - The "new three gold" investment strategy, involving money market funds, pure bond funds, and gold, is recommended for better asset preservation and growth [14]