国内外铜价创下新高。继12月3日LME（伦敦金属交易所）铜期货价格创出历史新高的11540美元/吨 后，4日，沪铜和国际铜期货主力合约分别创下历史新高的91450元/吨、82430元/吨。 南华期货研究院高级总监傅小燕对第一财经称，这次铜价上涨主要是受到美联储降息预期以及全球铜库 存区域性紧张带来的双重溢价影响。核心关注点在于预期AI时代到来，对于铜的大量消耗需要足够的 铜矿进口，而全球铜库存转移背后反映出的全球资源争夺，势必造成区域性短缺风险。 对铜产业链企业的影响，华闻期货总经理助理兼研究所所长程小勇认为，产业链上中下游受到的影响存 在差异，海外矿山享受铜价上涨带来的绝大多数利润；冶炼环节，拥有铜矿资源的铜冶炼企业受影响较 小，铜矿外采占比较高的铜企业影响较大；铜加工企业成本攀升且加工费低位波动；下游用铜企业面临 成本压力。 关于后市行情预判，多位受访者认为，铜价上涨可能还没结束，一旦出现利空因素或者需求预期没有如 期兑现，铜价容易出现大幅调整。国信期货首席分析师顾冯达预计，铜价偏强运行，沪铜触及新高后， 或在90000元/吨一线反复争夺，谨慎追高，关注回调买入机会。 逼仓风险与供应紧张共推涨势 12月3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and consider adding long positions on price pullbacks. Monitor macro and supply - side changes [1]. Aluminum Oxide The oversupply situation continues to suppress prices, which are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The reference range for the main contract is lowered to 2600 - 2800 yuan/ton. Observe actual production cuts and inventory inflection points [3]. Aluminum Short - term aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, with the reference range for the SHFE main contract this week being 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Focus on the latest Fed monetary policy and domestic inventory depletion sustainability [3]. Aluminum Alloy The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost and demand. Short - term prices are expected to remain firm, with the main contract reference range at 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply improvement and inventory depletion [5]. Polysilicon In December, there is an oversupply situation, and each link is expected to accumulate inventory. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. Industrial Silicon The industrial silicon market in December remains in a weak supply - demand situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range at 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [8]. Zinc The zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The supply pressure is relieved, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. The main contract reference range is 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton [11]. Copper The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract support range is 88500 - 89500 yuan/ton. Monitor overseas interest rate cut expectations and smelting production cuts [13]. Lithium Carbonate The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range at 92000 - 95000 yuan/ton [16]. Nickel The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range at 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Monitor macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [19]. Stainless Steel The short - term disk is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range at 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton. Monitor steel mills' production cut implementation and ferro - nickel prices [20]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices rose 1.51%, LME 0 - 3 spread dropped 38.67%. Import loss decreased 13.91%, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports, SMM refined tin production, and average开工率 increased, while refined tin imports, exports, and SMM solder开工率 decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF, social, and LME inventories increased, while SHEF warehouse receipts decreased slightly [1]. Aluminum Oxide - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum prices rose 0.41%, and most alumina prices remained unchanged. Aluminum import loss decreased, and monthly spreads were stable [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production decreased, while alumina开工率 and some downstream开工率 increased [3]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories decreased, while electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM ADC12 alloy prices were stable, and some scrap - to - refined aluminum price spreads increased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased, while unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports decreased and exports increased [5]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased slightly, and some daily inventories changed [5]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, futures prices rose, and silicon wafer and component prices fell. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In November and December, polysilicon and silicon wafer production decreased, imports and exports changed, and demand decreased [7]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon spot prices fell slightly, and futures prices declined. Some monthly spreads changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, national industrial silicon production decreased, and some regional production and开工率 changed. Organic silicon production increased [8]. - **Inventory**: Some regional factory inventories and social inventories increased slightly [8]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices rose slightly, and import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads changed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased, imports decreased, and exports increased. Downstream开工率 was relatively stable [11]. - **Inventory**: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased [11]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper prices rose, and some spreads changed. Import loss increased slightly [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased, and imports decreased. Some processing开工率 decreased [13]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social and SHFE inventories decreased, while bonded and LME inventories increased [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly, and some monthly spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, imports and exports increased, and开工率 increased [16]. - **Inventory**: Lithium carbonate total, downstream, and smelter inventories decreased [16]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel prices rose slightly, and some spreads and costs changed [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese refined nickel production and imports decreased, and some inventories increased or decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME and bonded area inventories decreased [19]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B stainless steel prices were stable, and some monthly spreads changed [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese and Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel production changed, imports increased, and exports decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social and cold - rolled social inventories increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased slightly [20].

Core Insights - The recent surge in silver futures prices is attributed to supply tightness and positive market sentiment, with expectations of continued strength in silver prices due to short-term supply constraints and ample liquidity [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 1, COMEX silver futures for March reached a historic high of $58.61 per ounce, while domestic silver futures closed at 13,278 yuan per kilogram, marking a 5.86% increase [1] - Year-to-date, COMEX silver futures have risen from $29.27 per ounce to $57.9 per ounce, reflecting a 97.81% increase, while domestic silver futures increased from 7,506 yuan per kilogram to 13,278 yuan per kilogram, a 76.9% rise [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the current strength in international silver prices is primarily driven by a supply shortage in the physical market, with expectations that this shortage will persist into the next year [1][2] - The global supply tightness of silver is highlighted as a significant factor, with the current market conditions not being influenced by traditional safe-haven attributes of precious metals [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - The silver futures market is experiencing heightened risk appetite among investors, with a notable increase in funds flowing into silver futures, surpassing 50.9 billion yuan in total [2] - The only silver futures-themed fund, Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures, has reported a year-to-date net value growth rate of 62.71%, with a total scale of 6.64 billion yuan [2]

Supply Concerns - Ongoing concerns regarding copper supply have been prevalent for several years and are now intensifying in the market [1][2] - Mine supply has decreased this year, leading to insufficient availability for new smelters globally [2] Market Dynamics - Anticipation of tariffs on refined copper by the US government is contributing to a significant influx of metal into the US, potentially leaving less for the rest of the world [3] - A prominent copper trader has expressed a bullish outlook, predicting substantial price increases for copper in the coming year [3] Price Trends - A combination of supply issues and tariff expectations is driving copper prices to record highs [4] - Similar supply constraints are affecting silver, with a notable influx into the US due to market pressures and tariff expectations [4][5] - The global market for metals, particularly outside the US, is experiencing tight conditions, making it susceptible to price spikes [5]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have reached a historic high due to supply constraints and rising expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month [1] Group 1: Price Movement - Silver prices have surpassed $57 per ounce, marking an increase of nearly 6% from the previous week [1] - The price surge is attributed to a combination of supply tightness and market anticipation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Concerns over global supply tightness have resurfaced, supporting the rise in silver prices [1] - Despite record inflows of silver into London, which have alleviated some supply issues, the one-month silver borrowing costs remain high [1] - Silver inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have recently dropped to their lowest levels in nearly a decade [1]

Core Insights - International precious metal prices have significantly increased, with London spot silver prices surpassing $56 per ounce, setting a new historical record [1] - Silver futures for March delivery on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $57.16 per ounce, marking a record high with a rise of 6.6% [1] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, increased holdings in silver ETFs, and ongoing supply tightness [1] - International gold prices also rebounded to a half-month high, with February delivery gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange closing at $4254.9 per ounce, up 1.25% [1] - A cooling system failure at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange data center on the evening of the 27th caused trading interruptions across stock, forex, bond, and commodity markets, amplifying market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - On November 28, international spot silver prices surged over 2.5%, reaching a peak of approximately $54.84 per ounce, surpassing the historical high set in October [1] Group 1: Price Movement - International spot silver prices increased significantly, with a rise of 2.5% [1] - The price approached $55 per ounce, exceeding the historical high recorded in October [1] - International spot gold also maintained an upward trend, nearing $4200 per ounce [1] Group 2: Contributing Factors - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have increased, contributing to the rise in silver prices [1] - Inflows into ETFs have supported the price increase of silver [1] - Ongoing supply constraints have also played a role in the upward movement of silver prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Silver is becoming a new focus in the commodity market, with futures prices reaching new highs due to tightening supply signals [1][4]. Supply Concerns - The direct cause of the price increase is heightened market concerns over supply, with silver inventory on the Shanghai Gold Exchange dropping by 58.83 tons to 715.875 tons, the lowest since July 3, 2016 [4]. - Although there was a slight increase of 21.3 tons in inventory on November 25, it remains at a near ten-year low [4]. - China's silver exports surged to over 660 tons in October, marking a historical high, which is directly linked to the rapid consumption of domestic silver inventory [5][6]. Cross-Border Trade Dynamics - Due to concerns over tariffs affecting cross-border shipping costs, commodities like gold, silver, and copper have seen a phenomenon of "cross-border migration" arbitrage ahead of tax implementation [4][6]. - The price of New York commodities often exceeds that of London and other regions due to statistical tax premiums, creating arbitrage opportunities that prompt traders to transport goods to U.S. warehouses [6]. Macroeconomic Support - The entire precious metals market is supported by macroeconomic conditions, with traders betting on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [4][7]. - Fed officials' dovish comments have reinforced expectations for a rate cut, further supporting precious metal prices [7]. Industrial Metal Market - The theme of supply tightness is also emerging in the industrial metals market, particularly copper, with predictions of a supply gap expanding to 316,000 tons next year [8]. - Demand for copper is driven by ongoing investments in data centers and power grids, while supply growth is hindered by production disruptions and declining ore grades [8].

Core Insights - Recent supply tightness and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month have led to a slight increase in copper prices [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Copper futures rose to approximately $10,860 per ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day [1] - The spread between spot copper prices and three-month futures surged to over $20 per ton, reaching a new high in about five weeks [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Confidence in further monetary easing has strengthened following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller regarding a weak U.S. labor market [1] - Traders are willing to pay higher prices for immediate supply, indicating strong demand amid supply constraints [1]

Core View - Bullish factors: Supply shortage due to reduced production in northern mines supports zinc prices, and increased downstream demand is driven by smelters' active procurement of domestic ore and lower processing fees [3] - Bearish factors: Hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve suppress rate - cut expectations, leading to a collective correction in metals, and an increase of about 2000 tons in LME zinc inventory last week restricts the upside potential of prices [3] - Trading advice: Short - term focus on the support of tight mine supply for zinc prices, no future strategy provided [3] Processing and Terminal Demand - Data presented on galvanized coil market sentiment index, inventory, production, net exports, die - cast zinc alloy net imports, color - coated sheet net exports, zinc oxide net exports, real estate development investment and progress, sales and unsold area, land transaction area, and commercial housing transaction volume [4][7][10][12][14] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Data on zinc concentrate monthly import volume, TC, zinc ingot monthly production, production profit and processing fees, raw material inventory days, and various zinc inventories including LME, SHFE, and exchange inventories are provided [18][20][21][23][24] Futures and Spot Market Review - Information on the trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, LME zinc premium, and zinc ingot basis in different regions is presented [26][27][28][30][35]