期货热点追踪 政策提振终端走强，纯碱期货创两月新高，夜盘能否持续上涨？机构分析指出，纯碱供需形势较差，但 市场还在交易供给侧政策的预期阶段，短期价格偏强。 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Steel - The rise of ferrous metals since June was due to environmental inspections on coking coal leading to production cuts and a rebound in coking coal prices, along with resilient off - season demand for steel and low inventory levels. In July, the "anti - involution" trading improved market sentiment, and with marginal improvements in industry supply - demand and positive market sentiment, ferrous metals rose strongly. High - frequency data shows off - season demand resilience, high steel mill production, and raw material inventory de - stocking due to marginal supply decline. Later, a marginal increase in inventory would require coking coal production recovery or a decline in steel demand. Macroscopically, there is good sentiment for commodity buying under the expectation of supply - side contraction. The resistance levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils at around 3100 and 3270 yuan have been removed, and the next pressure levels are at 3250 and 3400 yuan [1] Iron Ore - Last week, the iron ore 09 contract rose strongly. Globally, the shipping volume decreased slightly, but arrivals at 45 ports increased slightly. Future arrivals are expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, after the lifting of production restrictions in Tangshan on July 15, iron - making water production rebounded significantly, and steel exports remained strong, providing support. Port inventory increased slightly, while steel mill equity ore inventory decreased rapidly. In the future, iron - making water production in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials. With the expected introduction of a growth - stabilizing plan for ten key industries and positive sentiment from the "anti - involution" meeting, iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The strategy is to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [4] Coke - Last week, coke futures fluctuated upwards, and the first round of spot price increases was implemented. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, the market expected an improvement, and mainstream coking enterprises initiated the first round of price increases, which were accepted by mainstream steel mills on the 17th. There is still an expectation of further price increases this week. On the supply side, some coal mines and coking plants resumed production after the inspection team left, but production was difficult to increase due to losses. On the demand side, iron - making water production increased after the end of environmental restrictions in Tangshan. In terms of inventory, coking plant and port inventories decreased, while steel mill inventories increased. Due to low prices, cost - push and steel mill restocking demand are favorable for future coke price increases. The strategy is to conduct hedging operations as the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, go long on the 09 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6] Coking Coal - Last week, coking coal futures fluctuated upwards, and the spot market generally rebounded. Domestic coking coal auctions improved, and most coal mines saw better sales. Although coal mines resumed production after the inspection team left, overall production recovery was slow due to strong sales. Imported coking coal prices rebounded slightly, and port transactions improved. On the demand side, coking plant operations increased slightly, and iron - making water production rebounded rapidly after the lifting of restrictions in Tangshan. Steel mills and coking plants increased their restocking efforts. In terms of inventory, coal mine inventory decreased from a high level, port inventory increased, and downstream inventory increased from a low level. The strategy is to conduct hedging operations, go long on the 09 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot in East China rose from 3200 to 3220 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot in East China rose from 3290 to 3320 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2960 yuan/ton, while plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits for hot - rolled coils and rebar in different regions showed declines, such as a 41 - yuan decline in East China rebar profit [1] Production and Inventory - Daily average iron - making water production increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased by 4.5 to 868.2, a 0.5% decrease. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.9 to 1337.7, a 0.1% decrease [1] Demand - The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 15.3 to 206.2, a 6.9% decrease, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 1.3 to 323.8, a 0.4% increase [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 09 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also showed significant increases. For example, the 09 - contract basis of PB powder increased from 25.2 to 34.5, a 36.9% increase [4] Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 178.2 to 2662.1, a 7.2% increase, while the global shipping volume decreased by 7.8 to 2987.1, a 0.3% decrease. The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.6 to 242.4, a 1.1% increase [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 62.1 to 13785.21, a 0.5% increase, while the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 157.5 to 8822.2, a 1.8% decrease [4] Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices showed slight fluctuations, with the 09 contract at 1518 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decrease, and the 01 contract at 1559 yuan/ton, a 0.3% increase. The first round of spot price increases of 50/55 yuan/ton was implemented [6] Production and Inventory - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 64.2, a 0.2% increase, while the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.1, a 0.2% decrease. The total coke inventory decreased by 5.3 to 925.7, a 0.64% decrease [6] Supply and Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 1.2 to - 6.1, a 20.4% decrease [6] Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures prices increased, with the 09 contract rising by 8 to 926, a 0.8% increase, and the 01 contract rising by 8 to 976, a 0.84% increase. Spot prices generally increased [6] Production and Inventory - The raw coal production of sample coal mines decreased by 1.6 to 866.6, a 0.2% decrease, and the clean coal production decreased by 1.1 to 442.4, a 0.2% decrease. The inventory of clean coal in Fenwei coal mines decreased by 18.3 to 158.1, a 10.3% decrease [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - For iron ore, the 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend yesterday. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, but the arrival volume at 47 ports increased. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to decline. The iron - water production decreased due to steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions. Although the terminal demand may weaken in the off - season, the strong steel export provides some support. In July, the iron - water production will continue to decline, and the steel mill profit will improve. The short - term iron ore is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [1] - For coke, the futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, while the spot price was stable with a slight upward bias. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, the market bottomed out, and mainstream coking enterprises plan to initiate the first - round price increase. The supply is expected to increase as some coal mines resume production, but the production is difficult to boost due to losses. The demand may decline as Tangshan conducts environmental protection production restrictions, and the iron - water production is expected to be around 238 tons per day in July. The inventory is at a medium level, and it is recommended to conduct hedging on the coke 2601 contract on rallies, go long on the coke 2509 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [2] - For coking coal, the futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The domestic coking coal auction market recovered, and the overall spot market is in a bottom - rebound trend. The supply is expected to increase but the overall production recovery is slow, and the supply is still in short supply. The demand decreased as the coking and blast furnace operations declined slightly. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% to 0.6%. The 09 - contract basis of most powders increased, with the 09 - contract basis of Carajás fines rising by 234.0%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.0%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.3% [1] - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% to 0.5%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index also increased slightly [1] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 7.2% to 2662.1 million tons, while the global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 0.3% to 2987.1 million tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% to 9813.1 million tons [1] Demand - The average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 million tons, the 45 - port average daily dredging volume (weekly) increased by 0.1% to 319.5 million tons. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 3.0% and 3.9% respectively [1] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3% to 13723.11 million tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 0.7% to 8979.6 million tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.3% to 20.0 days [1] Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 09 and 01 contracts decreased by 0.74% and 0.54% respectively. The 09 and 01 basis increased, and the J09 - J01 spread decreased. The steel - union coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [2] Supply - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [2] Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [2] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly by 0.0%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 8.84%, while the inventory of 247 steel mills and port inventory increased [2] Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap remained unchanged at - 4.8 million tons [2] Coking Coal Price and Spread - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 0.6%. The coking coal 09 and 01 contracts decreased by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively. The 09 and 01 basis increased, and the JM09 - JM01 spread decreased. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 2 [2] Supply - The raw coal and clean coal production of sample coal mines increased by 0.34% and 0.3% respectively [2] Demand - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [2] Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 7.5%, while the inventory of all - sample coking plants, port inventory increased, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased slightly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel industry, on July 15, 2025, the steel market showed a relatively strong trend. The weekly data indicated that the apparent demand was in a seasonal decline, production followed the decline in demand, and inventory remained stable. In the second half of the year, demand is likely to decline, and the supply remains abundant, lacking strong price - driving forces. Currently, the low inventory and improved market sentiment support valuation - repair trading, but the actual demand has limited upward potential. The next macro - observation window is the Politburo meeting at the end of July. For operation, observe whether the current prices of rebar at 3100 and hot - rolled coils at 3300 can be effectively broken through, and if so, focus on the next pressure levels of 3220 (rebar) and 3350 (hot - rolled coils) [1]. - For the iron ore industry, on July 14, 2025, the iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. The demand side was affected by steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions, with molten iron production declining from its peak. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and short - term molten iron shows resilience. In the future, molten iron production in July is expected to continue to decline, and steel mill profits will improve. Short - term iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips for the iron ore 2509 contract and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [4]. - For the coke industry, on July 14, 2025, the coke futures oscillated strongly, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward trend. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, a phased bottom was formed, and market expectations improved. Mainstream coking enterprises plan to initiate the first - round price increase, which is expected to be implemented later. The supply side may face difficulties in increasing production due to enterprise losses, and the demand side is affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, with molten iron production reaching a peak and starting to decline. The inventory is at a medium level, and downstream steel mills' active restocking demand is beneficial for future price increases. It is recommended to conduct hedging for the coke 2601 contract on rallies, buy on dips for the coke 2509 contract, and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [6]. - For the coking coal industry, on July 14, 2025, the coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The domestic coking coal auction market recovered, and the overall coal mine production recovered slowly, remaining in short supply. Imported coal showed different trends, with Mongolian coal prices rebounding slightly and seaborne coal prices rising. The demand side saw a slight decline in coking and blast furnace operations, but the downstream restocking intensity increased. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to buy on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3210, 3190, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3176, 3138, and 3170 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 4, 5, and 9 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300, 3200, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The prices of hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3287, 3276, and 3288 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 6, 3, and 8 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar was 3333 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3058 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan [1]. - The profits of East China, North China, and South China rebar were 160, 130, and 270 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 27, 1, and 47 yuan. The profits of East China, North China, and South China hot - rolled coils were 240, 150, and 230 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 17, 17, and 7 yuan [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons (- 0.5%) compared to the previous value. The production of five major steel products was 872.7 tons, a decrease of 12.4 tons (- 1.4%) [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products was 1339.6 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons (0.0%); the rebar inventory was 540.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons (- 0.9%); the hot - rolled coil inventory was 345.6 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons (0.2%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume was 10.6 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons (5.0%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 873.1 tons, a decrease of 12.2 tons (- 1.4%); the apparent demand for rebar was 221.5 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons (- 1.5%); the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 322.5 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons (- 0.6%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 768.2, 794.2, 804.0, and 801.5 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 2.2 yuan/ton. The 09 - contract basis of these four types of iron ore decreased significantly, with decreases of - 47.3 yuan/ton [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread was - 49.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton (- 4.3%); the 9 - 1 spread was 30.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton (9.1%); the 1 - 5 spread was 19.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.6%) [4]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2662.1 tons, an increase of 178.2 tons (7.2%); the global weekly shipment volume was 2987.1 tons, a decrease of 7.8 tons (- 0.3%); the national monthly import volume was 9813 tons, a decrease of 500.3 tons (- 4.9%) [4]. - The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons (- 0.4%); the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 319.5 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons (0.1%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 56.8 tons (- 0.4%) compared to Monday of the previous week; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8979.6 tons, an increase of 61.1 tons (0.7%); the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills was 20.0 days, an increase of 1.0 days (5.3%) [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1094 and 1270 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of coke 09 and 01 contracts were 1526 and 1569 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 6 and 21 yuan/ton [6]. - The 09 and 01 bases were - 119 and - 163 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 6 and 21 yuan/ton. The J09 - J01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [6]. Production and Inventory - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 64.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons (- 0.4%); the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 47.2 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons (- 0.6%) [6]. - The total coke inventory was 931.0 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons (0.0%); the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 93.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons (- 8.84%); the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 637.8 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons (0.0%); the port inventory was 200.1 tons, an increase of 9.0 tons (4.7%) [6]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) were 1020 and 894 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0 and 5 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal 09 and 01 contracts were 920 and 938 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 7 and 18 yuan/ton [6]. - The 09 and 01 bases were - 26 and - 70 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 2 and 13 yuan/ton. The JM09 - JM01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [6]. Production and Inventory - The weekly raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines was 868.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons (0.34%); the weekly clean coal production was 443.5 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons (0.34%) [6]. - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory was 176.4 tons, a decrease of 14.3 tons (- 7.5%); the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 892.4 tons, an increase of 44.2 tons (5.24%); the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.9 tons, a decrease of 6.7 tons (- 0.8%); the port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 17.4 tons [6].

国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 | liuyuwu@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2025年07月06日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、钢材观点：低估值叠加政策驱动，钢价小幅上涨 2、铁矿石观点：行业预期改善，原料估值提升 3、煤焦：焦炭一轮提涨预期，宽幅震荡 4、铁合金观点：宏观与基本面博弈，合金价格跟随板块震荡 Special report on Guot ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Low valuation combined with policy drivers lead to a slight increase in steel prices. The overseas macro situation shows that the easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the rise in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, and the decline of the US dollar index are beneficial to pro - cyclical commodities. In the domestic market, the supply - side expectation is briefly traded, and the demand side is waiting for the July 30 Politburo meeting. In the black产业链, the steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, the steel inventory is low, the steel mill profit expands, the decline of hot metal is slow, and the negative feedback transmission is not smooth [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Situation - **Macro - environment**: Overseas, the macro - trading is temporarily biased towards the direction of interest rate cuts. The easing of the Middle East situation, poor US employment data, and the expectation of interest rate cuts have a positive impact on pro - cyclical commodities. Domestically, the supply - side expectation is briefly traded, and the demand side is waiting for the July 30 Politburo meeting. There have been a series of policy events such as real - estate favorable policies, debt replacement, and government work reports [5][8][9]. - **Black Industry Chain**: The steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, the steel inventory is low, the steel mill profit expands, the decline of hot metal is slow, and the negative feedback transmission is not smooth [5][11]. 3.2 Rebar (Thread Steel) - **Price and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3160 (+80) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3072 (+77) yuan/ton, the main contract basis was 88 (+8) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 21 (-21) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the off - season spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [17]. - **Demand**: Second - hand housing transactions remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand, but new - housing transactions remain low, showing weak market confidence. Land transaction area also remains low. With the arrival of the off - season, demand shows a seasonal decline [21][22]. - **Supply and Inventory**: According to MS weekly data, the destocking of steel mill inventory slows down, and supply slightly increases. The spot profit last week was 336 (+84) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 325 (+46) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 59 (+82) yuan/ton [24][32]. 3.3 Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3250 (+60) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3201 (+80) yuan/ton, the main contract basis was 49 (-20) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 9 (-3) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the off - season spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [37]. - **Demand**: The demand for hot - rolled coils weakens month - on - month. The US imposes tariffs on steel - made household appliances, the white - goods production enters the seasonal off - season, and the export also weakens month - on - month [38][41][42]. - **Supply and Inventory**: According to MS weekly data, demand weakens month - on - month, inventory slightly accumulates, and steel mills maintain high production. The spot profit last week was 238 (+62) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 304 (+49) yuan/ton [46][47][52]. 3.4 Variety Spread Structure - There are various spread structures such as the cold - hot spread in Shanghai, the coil - rebar spread in Shanghai, the medium - plate hot - roll spread in Shanghai, the wire - rebar spread in Hangzhou, etc. There are also regional spreads for rebar, wire, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil [53][54][61]. 3.5 Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate - Data on the supply, demand, and inventory of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates are provided, including seasonal data on total inventory, production, and apparent consumption [65][66].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: In the second half of the year, the demand is pro - cyclically weak, and the policy is "easy to loosen and hard to tighten". Under the assumption of relatively mild monetary and supply - side policies, focus on policy expectations in July, with a relatively positive macro tone. From July to September, if policies do not turn significantly looser, the US will face liquidity risks and the threat of "reciprocal tariffs", bringing macro pressure. After September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [8][29][30]. - **Mesoscopic**: From the perspective of policy documents and industry self - discipline, industries such as steel, refining, synthetic ammonia, cement, electrolytic aluminum, data centers, coal - fired power, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e - commerce can be focused on for the current comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition [9]. - **Microscopic**: Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency. It is necessary for the Fed to restart the easing cycle smoothly, and gold, crude oil, and non - ferrous metals are relatively beneficial. Domestically, the core is the supply - side policy. Referring to 2015, sectors with obvious supply - side production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved, with the mid - and downstream benefiting more than the upstream. This round focuses on sectors such as the black sector and new energy metals [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - **Demand and Inventory Cycle**: The pro - cyclical demand in the second half of the year is weak. The Sino - US inventory cycle has re - entered the destocking phase, and this round of destocking may last until the end of 2025 [14]. - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: Global central banks are "easy to loosen and hard to tighten", and both China and the US are increasing fiscal policies. In China, a series of financial policies have been introduced, and the "market bottom" is clear [20][21]. - **Tariff Threats**: Global populist waves are continuous. Trump has issued tariff threats, and the US is in different stages of trade negotiations with various countries [25]. - **Macro Scenario Deduction**: In July, focus on policy expectations; from July to September, there is macro pressure; after September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [28][29][30]. 3.2 Mesoscopic - **Policy Shift in the US**: The passage of the "Great Beauty" bill marks the US's shift from the first half of the year's "tight fiscal expectation + neutral currency" to a "easy to loosen and hard to tighten" policy stage [32]. - **Domestic Policy Focus**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting focuses on governing "involution - style" competition, but details of industry production cuts are needed to determine the inflation trading theme [32]. - **Policy on "Involution - style" Competition**: Policy documents and industry self - discipline focus on industries such as steel, refining, etc. The causes of "involution - style" competition are analyzed, and comprehensive rectification ideas are proposed [9][35][36]. 3.3 Commodities - **Capital Expenditure**: The capital expenditure of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, while that of the black, chemical, and energy sectors has increased. The capital expenditure of crude oil has increased, and the capital expenditure of industrial metals has shown different trends [42][45]. - **Asset Performance in Stagflation - like Situations**: Overseas macro situations are more in line with "stagflation - like" characteristics. In historical stagflation - like stages, the performance of various assets is highly differentiated [54]. - **2015 Supply - side Reform Review**: In 2015, supply - side structural reform was proposed, with clear tasks such as "cutting overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weak links". Sectors with obvious production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved [61][62].

Summary of the Conference Call for Rongsheng Petrochemical Industry Overview - The Chinese petrochemical industry is experiencing a slowdown in capacity growth, with refining capacity nearing the 1 billion tons threshold, limiting new capacity additions. [2][3] - The global refining industry is undergoing consolidation, with European and American companies gradually shutting down some refineries. It is projected that from 2025 to 2030, global new capacity additions will average only 400,000 barrels per day. [2][3] - Aromatics capacity growth is also slowing, with a domestic compound growth rate of approximately 3%. The supply structure remains healthy, but Japanese and Korean facilities are reducing their operating rates due to economic inefficiencies. [2][4] Key Insights on Company Performance - In Q1 2025, all segments of Rongsheng Petrochemical reported profits, with refining generating 1.2 billion yuan. The PTA and polyester segments also showed profitability. [11] - The company is transitioning from a focus on refined oil products to chemical products, aiming to reduce refined oil yield to below 20% and enhance sales and production flexibility. [2][7][8] - The company holds an export quota of 3.7 million tons and is actively pursuing integrated upgrades to improve operational efficiency. [7][8] Future Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for refined oil has peaked, particularly for diesel and gasoline, which are significantly impacted by the rise of electric vehicles. By 2030, refined oil consumption is expected to gradually decline. [7] - The aromatics market is optimistic, with stable demand from PTA and downstream polyester sectors. The breakeven point for PX to naphtha is around $100 per ton, significantly better than the global average of $300 per ton. [9][10] Challenges and Risks - The tightening of policies has made it difficult to obtain new approvals for olefins, with the possibility of new permits being extremely low. [5] - The operating rate of Shandong's local refineries has dropped from 60% to 40%, influenced by peak refined oil demand and tightening tax policies, leading to a gradual market exit. [6] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could impact raw material supply and pricing, although the company has maintained stable production and sales rates. [12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing in high-performance resins and high-temperature new materials, with projects expected to be completed by the end of 2025 and 2026, respectively. [15] - Capital expenditure plans for the polyester and PTA segments are being adjusted, with no new projects planned as existing capacities have been fully utilized. [16] - The company is also exploring coal chemical projects in Inner Mongolia, pending national approval. [20] Financial Management - The major shareholder has been actively increasing their stake since 2024, with a total investment of 1.7 billion yuan across three buyback phases, aimed at enhancing investor confidence. [21] - The company aims to reduce its debt ratio to below 70% by improving operational cash flow, with expectations of further cash flow enhancement as projects are implemented. [22] Conclusion - Rongsheng Petrochemical is navigating a challenging environment marked by capacity constraints and shifting demand dynamics. The company is strategically repositioning itself towards chemical production while managing risks associated with geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes. The outlook for the aromatics market remains positive, supported by strong domestic demand and competitive advantages in production costs. [2][9][10]

36 关注微信公众号 | 资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 724.2 | 711.0 | 13.2 | 1.9% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 753.5 | 740.3 | 13.2 | 1.8% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 764.2 | 751.3 | 12.9 | 1.7% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 745.4 | 732.5 | 12.9 | 1.8% | | | 09合约基差:卡粉 | 47.7 | 42.5 | 5.2 | 12.3% | | | 09合约基差:PB粉 | 31.0 | 71.8 | -40.8 | -56.8% | 元/吨 | | 09合约基差:巴混粉 | 41.7 | 82.8 | -41.1 | -49.6% | | | 09合约基差 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for rebar futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 3071.00 yuan, closing at 3065.00 yuan with a rise of 2.61% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the future market trends for rebar, with expectations of slight rebounds in prices [2][3][4] Group 2 - Zhonghui Futures predicts a slight rebound in rebar prices due to improving policy expectations and support from supply-side policies, despite the overall weak market conditions [2] - New Century Futures notes that while there is a slight rebound in prices, the overall demand is expected to decline seasonally, leading to a weak supply-demand structure [3] - Guoxin Futures highlights that the supply side is recovering slightly with increased production, while demand shows resilience, suggesting a stable supply-demand balance [4]