Core Viewpoint - The German Finance Minister emphasizes the need to avoid provocations in the ongoing tariff conflict with the United States [1] Group 1 - The German government is focused on maintaining a constructive dialogue with the U.S. to resolve trade tensions [1] - There is a recognition of the potential economic impact of tariffs on both countries, highlighting the importance of cooperation [1] - The Finance Minister calls for a balanced approach to trade negotiations, aiming to prevent escalation of conflicts [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced significant volatility from April 16 to May 13, 2025, driven by geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and the evolution of the China-U.S. tariff conflict [1][2] - In the first phase (April 16-22), gold prices surged due to heightened risk aversion, with London spot gold breaking through $3,274 per ounce [2][3] - The second phase (April 23-May 6) saw gold prices fluctuate between $3,200 and $3,500 per ounce, influenced by liquidity tightening and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [4][5] - In the third phase (May 7-13), a joint statement from China and the U.S. to suspend 24% of mutual tariffs led to a sharp decline in gold prices, dropping nearly $50 to $3,218 per ounce [5][6] Group 2: Trade and Economic Implications - The suspension of tariffs is expected to boost market sentiment, with potential short-term rebounds in global stock markets, particularly in U.S. technology stocks and export-oriented companies [6][7] - China's trade with the U.S. showed short-term pressure but long-term resilience, with high-tech product exports increasing by 6.4% year-on-year [7][8] - The tariff suspension may lead to a recovery in exports of machinery and electrical products, while low-value goods like steel imports will continue to be suppressed [8][9] - The trade dynamics indicate a shift towards transshipment trade and adjustments in industrial chains, with companies potentially relocating production to Southeast Asia to avoid tariffs [9][10] Group 3: Sectoral Analysis - The technology and high-end manufacturing sectors are expected to benefit from valuation recovery and demand release, while traditional manufacturing faces cost pressures and weak demand [9][10] - Long-term impacts include increased domestic counter-cyclical adjustments, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector in Q1 2025 [10][11] - The push for domestic autonomy in supply chains is accelerating, particularly in semiconductor equipment and industrial software, driven by the tariff conflict [11][12] Group 4: Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for China from mid-April to early May 2025 appears stable, although the tariff conflict continues to exert significant influence on imports and exports [12][13] - The social financing scale is projected to be between 1.47 trillion and 1.48 trillion yuan in April, supported mainly by government bond net financing and corporate bond financing [13][14] - The real estate market shows a divergence in investment and sales, with a 9.9% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment in Q1 2025, while transaction volumes in major cities increased by 14.7% in April [14][21]

首席点评：加密货币热度高涨，黄金回到主舞台 国内方面：习近平同法国总统马克龙通电话。习近平指出，支持欧盟加强战略自主，在国际事务中发挥 更重要作用。央行： 5 月 23 日开展 5000 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年期。国际方面：美国总统特朗 普：马上要去参加在弗吉尼亚州举行的加密货币晚宴。美国在加密货币、比特币等领域占据主导地位。 市场方面：股指、国债小幅回落。当前我国主要指数的估值水平仍然处于较低水平，中长期资金入市配 置的性价比仍然较高。当前地产仍未企稳，外部不利影响仍在，央行仍将保持支持性货币政策，资金面 保持宽松，对短端期债价格仍有支撑，关注后续贸易谈判进展。 重点品种：贵金属、股指、国债 贵金属： 美元价格反弹，金银价格回落。美国众议院以微弱优势通过税改法案，未来十年将增加联邦 债务约 3.8 万亿美元。有关穆迪下调美国主权评级以及特朗普减税法案推出等事件下，对美国债务问题 和经济压力的担忧发酵，本周整体上美债下跌，美元表现疲弱令金银出现反弹。关税冲击进入缓和阶 段，市场避险情绪降温。 5 月开始公布的经济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈现更 将明显的滞胀态势。短期内美联储难有 ...

资料显示， 金电科技的主要客户包括 Learning Resources、Educational Insights、Heathrow Scientific、hand2mind、Climentoni等。 金电科技成立于2016年，主要业务模式是为美国益智或科学玩具品牌代工产品。它英文名 K-TECH SOLUTIONS，对应主打服务是一站式ODM/OEM解决 方案。 金电科技产品示意 5月19日，总部位于中国香港的 金电科技有限公司 （ K-TECH SOLUTIONS COMPANY LIMITED，本文简称为金电科技）向 美国证券交易委员会 （SEC）提交招股说明书， 拟挂牌美国纳斯达克资本市场 ，股票代码为 "KMRK"。 截至2024年9月的半年，金电科技的营收约1241万美元，毛利润约121万美元，净利润约60万美元。最近几个半年/财年的毛利率都在10%上下。 金电科技的服务流程简图 金电科技供应链示意 从股权结构看，金电科技其实并不太需要上市融资，其股份主要由三位创始人持有，截至3月份的2023和2024财年净利润分别约为24.75万和92.85万美 元。 在文创潮看来，金 电科技申请上市，很大程度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the German chemical industry may become clearer as early as this year if the tariff conflict does not escalate further and the federal government implements the announced growth package [1] Industry Summary - The German Chemical Industry Association (VCI) indicates that the industry's prospects are contingent on the resolution of tariff conflicts and government support measures [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the impact of the US-China trade conflict on various industries and macroeconomic conditions. Core Points and Arguments - **Global Supply Chain Constraints**: The US faces significant challenges in adjusting global supply chains in the short term, leading to persistent price increases that cannot be resolved through supply adjustments alone. This may require agreements with other trade partners or domestic subsidies for mitigation [1][3][4] - **Tariff Measures**: The US's imposition of tariffs is driven by economic, political, and social factors. The short-term goal is to address trade deficits and increase tax revenue, while the long-term goal is partial decoupling and maintaining global dominance, making complete tariff removal unlikely [1][5] - **China's Tariff Strategy**: China has adopted a strategy of suspending or canceling certain tariffs based on negotiation outcomes, making it one of the countries with the highest tax burdens globally due to tariffs related to fentanyl and investigations [1][5] - **Projected Revenue from Tariffs**: Assuming US imports reach $3 trillion in 2025, a 10% tariff could generate at least $200 billion in additional revenue, not accounting for potential future tariff increases on certain trade partners [1][6] - **Trade Negotiation Phases**: The current phase of US-China trade negotiations is the second stage, with expectations of continued tariff increases. The first phase saw China implement comprehensive countermeasures that exceeded market expectations [1][7][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Macroeconomic Impact of Tariffs**: The imposition of tariffs leads to decreased total output and increased prices in consumer countries initially, followed by rising interest rates and inflation. In producer countries, initial output declines are offset by falling prices and rising real wages [2] - **Sector Resilience**: Sectors with low trade correlation, such as consumer goods, services, and consumer banking, are expected to remain stable. Import substitution sectors like agriculture and certain chemicals show potential, while automotive parts and consumer electronics may receive exemptions [3][9] - **Commodity Price Trends**: Commodity prices are generally on a downward trend, with domestic policy support potentially weakening, leading to price volatility. Interest rates are expected to have limited downward pressure, and exchange rates may fluctuate around the 7.2 mark [10] - **Investment Strategy**: In the current economic environment, it is recommended to focus on domestic demand sectors while maintaining a defensive investment posture. A small allocation to aggressive sectors is suggested to capitalize on market volatility [11]

以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ，作者挖掘基 教你挖掘基 . 投资理财有方法，我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 2025年的春天，全球资本市场在特朗普政府的"关税风暴"中剧烈颠簸。 全球股市曾在单周蒸发10万亿美元、黄金一度冲上3500美元/盎司……市场用脚投票，诠释了何为"不确定性定 价"。 今日凌晨，全球投资者的目光再度聚焦中美对话的瑞士日内瓦。 午后3点，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合 声明》超预期出炉，关税冲突首次出现了重大缓和信号。 来源：新华社、中国政府网 当关税疑云终于迈出了实质性进展，大类资产将如何重新定价？ 历史不会简单重复，但资产配置的底层逻辑始终如一： 在周期的波动中寻找确定性，用分散化应对不 可预测的冲击。 01 本轮关税冲突全复盘 ——大国博弈之下的"跌宕起伏" 要理解此刻的变局，需回溯这场关税战的完整脉络。 这场始于2025年2月的较量，本质上是两个超级大国对于全球产业链话语权的终极角逐。 回顾自特朗普1月20日正式上任以来关税政策，大致可以划分为三个阶段。 第一阶段（2-3月）：威胁与试探 特朗普政府率先发难，波及的国家有我国、加拿大和墨西哥。同时，针对特殊行业如钢铁和铝，特朗普 方也单独制定了相关 ...

双降落地资产反映相对平淡，4月外贸转口补充对美出口 ——资金面推动债券预期较强，盯住资金面同时关注债市扰动 2025 - 5 - 1 1 中泰期货研究所宏观团队 李荣凯 从业资格号：F3012937 交易咨询从业证书号： Z0015266 TEL：13361063969 01 逻辑与策略（P3-4） 目 录 CONTENTS 02 宏观主要资产资金流向变化（P5-6） 03 近期宏观数据分析与回顾（P7-13） 04 资金面分析与债券期现指标监控（P14-24） 05 权益宽基指数基本面、流动性与期现指标监控（P25-29） 06 宏观经济中期基本面跟踪监控（P30-46） 07 宏观经济长波基本面跟踪监控（P47-48） | 日期 | 10年中债 | | 10年美债 | | 美元指数 | | 人民币 | | 标普500 | 上证指数 | 中证商品 | 原油 | | 黄金 | 铜 | 集运欧线 | 螺纹 | 豆粕 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

01 逻辑与策略（P3-4） 目 录 CONTENTS 02 宏观主要资产资金流向变化（P5-6） 03 近期宏观数据分析与回顾（P7-13） 04 资金面分析与债券期现指标监控（P14-24） 05 权益宽基指数基本面、流动性与期现指标监控（P25-29） 06 宏观经济中期基本面跟踪监控（P30-46） 07 宏观经济长波基本面跟踪监控（P47-48） 双降落地资产反映相对平淡，4月外贸转口补充对美出口 逻辑与观点：资金面推动债券预期较强，盯住资金面同时关注债市扰动 ——资金面推动债券预期较强，盯住资金面同时关注债市扰动 2025 - 5 - 1 1 中泰期货研究所宏观团队 李荣凯 从业资格号：F3012937 交易咨询从业证书号： Z0015266 TEL：13361063969 ◆ 上周观点与策略：观点与策略：关税冲突初步反应在PMI数据上，那么央行4月份买断式回购+MLF续作等额对冲是否显得滞后于经济数据，适度宽松的货币政策为何落地这么迟？我们认为 这一问题的核心在于，全年经济增速目标5.0%+一季度数据5.4%超预期，叠加今年财政政策靠前发力明显，央行货币政策可以适度延后。国际环境方面，关税政策存 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][29]. Core Insights - The defense and military industry is expected to enter a new cycle driven by geopolitical conflicts, enhancing China's military trade focus and opening international markets for Chinese military products [5][3]. - The ongoing tariff conflicts highlight the comparative advantages of the military industry, with increased emphasis on self-sufficiency and potential growth in military investments [5][3]. - The fundamental changes in the military sector are solidifying the basis for industry growth, with a focus on quality and quantity improvements as the military approaches its centenary goals [5][3]. - There is a recommendation to increase attention on military stocks, particularly those related to precision-guided weapons, underwater capabilities, AI/robotics, and traditional aircraft supply chains [5][3]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 6.33%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.92% [6][3]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense sector included Chengxi Aviation (59.26%), Hwa Wo (48.85%), and Lijun (36.49%) [6][14]. - Conversely, the bottom five performers were Platinum (−4.26%), Lingyun (−4.00%), and Guangdong Hongda (−2.52%) [6][15]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 75.10, indicating it is in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 65.46% since January 2014 [15][19]. - The aerospace and aviation equipment sectors are noted to be at relatively high valuation levels since 2020 [15][19]. Key Valuation Targets - The report lists key valuation targets, including companies like Feili Hua, Tianqin Equipment, and Aerospace Electronics, with projected earnings growth and PE ratios indicating potential investment opportunities [21][24].