Core Viewpoint - Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods, effective from August 1, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The tariff is a significant increase, indicating a shift in trade policy towards Canada [1] - The implementation date of August 1, 2025, provides a timeline for businesses to prepare for the changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump announced a 35% tariff on imports from Canada, indicating a significant shift in trade policy that could impact various industries and companies involved in cross-border trade [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The 35% tariff is expected to increase costs for companies that rely on Canadian imports, potentially leading to higher prices for consumers [1] - This move may disrupt supply chains, particularly for industries heavily dependent on Canadian resources or products [1] Group 2: Industry Reactions - Industries such as manufacturing and agriculture may face challenges due to increased costs and potential retaliatory measures from Canada [1] - Companies that export to Canada could also be affected, as the tariff may lead to a decrease in demand for their products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Trump to impose tariffs on Japanese goods starting August 1 has not affected the economic outlook for the Kansai region of Japan according to the head of the Osaka branch of the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1 - The tariffs are set to begin on August 1 [1] - The Kansai region's economic perspective remains unchanged despite the tariff announcement [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term price of the black building materials industry is expected to be "strong - biased", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [1][2][6] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of supply contraction is strengthened, and the market sentiment is optimistic. Frequent macro - level positive factors combined with a good fundamental situation lead to a short - term strong - biased price trend in the black building materials industry [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their quarterly volume - pushing, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has remained stable, and the molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is oscillating strongly [2] Carbon Element - In the supply side, coal mines in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but there are still regional disturbances, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the daily customs clearance at the port has remained above 800 vehicles in recent days, and the pre - festival stocking sentiment is evident. In the demand side, the coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. The downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [3] Alloys - **Manganese Alloy**: The manganese ore price has remained stable, but the port inventory has slightly increased, and there is still room for the ore price to decline in the future. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, which makes it more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the silicon iron price is insufficient, but due to the continuous loss in the industry, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [3][6] Glass - In the demand side, the demand in the off - season is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak. In the supply side, there are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and a production line is planned to resume production, so the supply pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and the internal contradiction is not prominent. Recently, the anti - involution sentiment has increased, and the market is worried about supply - side production cuts. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate [12][13] Soda Ash - The supply - side over - capacity situation has not changed, and the long - term suppression still exists. The production is at a high level, and the supply pressure remains. In the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash is weak, with manufacturers continuously reducing prices. The market is affected by sentiment, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities. The short - term outlook is sideways, and the long - term price center is expected to decline [6][13] Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamental contradiction is limited, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. Overseas tariffs are constantly disturbing, and after the steel price increase, the pressure on steel exports shows a marginal weakening trend. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [8] - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has decreased, and the price is oscillating upward. The demand is at a high level, and the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. After this round of upward movement, the futures price has reached an important resistance level, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and it is expected to oscillate after the macro - level sentiment cools down [9] - **Coke**: The cost support is strengthening, and the expectation of price increase is growing. The current supply - demand pattern has further improved, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is high, and both the spot and futures prices are strengthening. The current fundamental supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - **Silicon Manganese**: The spot market is in a stalemate. The supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [14] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship is currently healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, making it difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the price is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has announced a tariff increase of up to 30% on goods imported from six countries, including the Philippines, Moldova, Brunei, Algeria, Libya, and Iraq, effective August 1, pending further negotiations [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Tariff Details - The new tariffs will be implemented on August 1, with the highest rate reaching 30% [1] - Tariff rates on goods from Moldova, Iraq, and Libya are lower than those announced in early April, while rates for the Philippines and Brunei are higher [1] Trade Impact - In the previous year, the United States imported goods worth $24 billion from these six countries, which accounted for less than 1% of the total $3.2 trillion in U.S. imports [1]

Group 1 - Two percentages are provided: 50% and 17% [2]

Group 1 - The imposition of a 10% reciprocal tariff and tariffs on the automotive industry is estimated to reduce Japan's real GDP by 0.2%, while an increase to 25% would expand the GDP decline to 0.4% [1][3] - Japan's exports to the United States account for approximately 20% of its total exports, with significant products affected by the potential 25% tariffs, including aircraft parts and construction machinery [1][2] - The construction machinery sector, particularly companies like Komatsu, has over 50% of its exports directed to the U.S., indicating a substantial impact from increased tariffs [2] Group 2 - The total export value of aircraft parts from Japan is 307.9 billion yen, with 76.5% of this amount going to the U.S., highlighting the vulnerability of this sector to tariff increases [1] - Major Japanese manufacturers in the metal processing machinery sector, such as DMG Mori and Makino Milling Machine, are planning to pass on tariff costs to customers as additional fees, reflecting the broader industry strategy to mitigate financial impacts [2] - The Japan Economic Federation (Keidanren) has expressed significant concern regarding the potential impact of increased tariffs on corporate investment strategies and profitability, indicating a widespread sentiment of crisis among Japanese businesses [2]

Group 1 - COMEX copper futures maintain a 9.6% increase, stabilizing around $5.509 per pound [1] - U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross announced that President Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper [1]

马来西亚种植业部长援引贸易部长称：美国在过去90天内加征了25%的关税，之前已加征10%的关税。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced a new procedure to expand the scope of the 25% tariff on imported automotive parts, affecting more components than previously included [1] Group 1: Tariff Expansion - The new procedure will include additional automotive parts under the existing 25% tariff on imported auto parts [1] - This move is aimed at increasing domestic production and reducing reliance on foreign automotive components [1] - The expansion of tariffs may impact pricing and supply chain dynamics within the automotive industry [1]