Report Overview - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The cotton market is experiencing a period of oscillatory adjustment due to a lack of strong short - term drivers. Both the international and domestic cotton markets face uncertainties from factors such as tariffs, weather, and market demand. The domestic cotton market has a high expectation of a bumper harvest this year, but concerns about tight ending stocks of old crops remain. The downstream industry continues to operate weakly, with low demand and increasing inventory [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou cotton futures are oscillating. The latest price index of 328 - grade cotton is 15,184 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market is still sluggish, with a decline in the downstream operating rate and a slight increase in inventory. The cotton fabric market remains weak, with inventory backlogs and a pessimistic outlook for July and August [7] - **Market Analysis**: Macroscopically, tariff disruptions still exist. Internationally, the good growth of U.S. cotton and the upcoming July supply - demand report will affect the market. Domestically, there is an expected bumper harvest, but concerns about tight old - crop ending stocks remain. The downstream industry is weak, with low demand and increasing inventory. In the short term, the market will oscillate and adjust [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Tariff Policy**: Trump postponed the reciprocal tariff suspension period to August 1 and mentioned possible tariff increases on multiple countries. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that the tariff revenue could reach 30 billion by the end of the year [9] - **Cotton Harvest**: As of the week ending July 5, the total cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 7.3%, up 2.3 percentage points from the previous week but 5% slower than the same period last year [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, futures prices, basis changes, inventory data, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][12][14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

行业 棉花 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 日期 2025 年 7 月 10 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15184 元/吨，较上一 交易日跌 9 元/吨。2024/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily decline of 0.13%, with volume and open interest contracting. In the current situation, the rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand. The steel price in the off - season continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level with few real - world contradictions. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily decline of 0.06%, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. At present, the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are mainly stable. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory continues to accumulate. However, the expectation of policy benefits is fermenting. Under the game of long and short factors, the hot - rolled coil price continues to fluctuate at a high level. Be cautious of the trading logic switching to the industrial end [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuated and rebounded, recording a daily increase of 0.14%, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. At present, after the end of the "exemption period", the tariff disturbance reappears, and the market sentiment weakens. The iron ore price has fallen after fluctuating at a high level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable. In the short term, the iron ore price is likely to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Tariff announcement**: US President Trump announced on July 7, 2025, that the US will impose tariffs on products from Indonesia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Tunisia starting from August 1, 2025, with rates ranging from 25% to 36% [6]. - **Excavator sales**: In June 2025, 18,804 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to June 2025, a total of 120,520 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [7]. - **Iron ore production of Ferrexpo**: Due to the Ukrainian government's suspension of the VAT refund policy, Ferrexpo's operating cash flow was under pressure in Q2 2025. The company reduced the pellet production line from two to one, resulting in a significant decline in iron ore production [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The national average prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased by 2 yuan. The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin remained unchanged, while the price of hot - rolled coil in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder in Shandong ports increased by 1 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil changed slightly, and the SGX swap and the Platts Index decreased [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price was 3,063 yuan, a decline of 0.13%. The trading volume was 954,572 lots, a decrease of 271,730 lots, and the open interest was 2,168,547 lots, a decrease of 28,783 lots [11]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price was 3,191 yuan, a decline of 0.06%. The trading volume was 341,788 lots, a decrease of 148,639 lots, and the open interest was 1,593,691 lots, an increase of 8,136 lots [11]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price was 733.0 yuan, an increase of 0.14%. The trading volume was 233,496 lots, a decrease of 57,393 lots, and the open interest was 655,157 lots, an increase of 7,312 lots [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including the inventory of steel mills and social inventory [13][14][16]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts present the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as the seasonal inventory of 45 ports [18][19][24]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [28][30][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has little change. Supply continues to rise to a high level this year, while demand remains weak in the off - season. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply and demand are mainly stable. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Policy benefits are expected, but the price may switch to the industrial logic. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [36]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the inventory has increased again. The terminal consumption of ore has declined slightly. The supply has shrunk. The ore price is likely to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [37].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the support level of the MA60 line. The core logic is that market sentiment has weakened, and steel prices have declined in a volatile manner [2]. - Under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. During the off - season, steel prices continue to face pressure. It is expected that steel prices will continue the volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The view is to pay attention to the support of the MA60 line, and the core logic is the weakening market sentiment and the decline of steel prices in a volatile manner. There are also explanations for price change calculations and definitions of different trends [2]. Market Driving Logic - Tariff disturbances have reappeared, weakening market sentiment, and steel prices have declined from high levels. The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. Steel mills' production is active, and rebar output continues to rise, increasing supply pressure. Demand shows a stable performance overall, and although high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded, they are still at a low level in the same period, and off - season demand remains weak. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. It is expected that steel prices will continue the volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].

2025 年 07 月 08 日 商 品 研 究 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 宏观方面，特朗普征税函第一波,日韩等 14 国 25%到 40%不等，8 月 1 日生效，欧盟或接近协议。（华 尔街见闻） 微观方面，据 SMM 了解，Antofagasta 与中国冶炼厂 2025 年中谈判结果 TC/RC 敲定为 0.0 美元/千 吨及 0.0 美分磅，远超市场预期。（SMM） 巴拿马政府：逾 3.3 万公吨铜精矿已从关闭的 Cobre Panama 铜矿运出。（SMM） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,270 | -0.58% | 79390 | 0.15% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,784 | -0.69% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局走弱，矿价偏弱震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端均有所走弱，淡季钢厂临检增多，矿石终端消耗开始回落，但依旧是年内高位， 给予矿价支撑。与此同时，港口到货迎来回升，但矿商发运则是持续大幅减量，财年末结束后海外矿 石供应明显收缩，相应的内矿生产趋稳，矿石供应有所收缩，关注后续降幅情况。目前来看，"豁免 期"结束后关 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a barbell strategy focusing on dividends and micro-cap stocks, which is expected to continue outperforming in a macro environment characterized by low interest rates and ample liquidity. The long-term strategic allocation center for dividends and micro-cap stocks is around 70:30, effectively reducing drawdowns and enhancing returns [2][6][49]. - In the first half of 2025, the report identifies strong trend sectors that have not yet overheated, suggesting attention towards city commercial banks in the dividend sector, retail pharmacy and chemical pharmaceuticals in the healthcare sector, and other agricultural processing, express delivery, and specialized retail markets in the consumer sector [7][54]. Group 2 - The report notes that the broad market indices, such as the CSI 300 and CSI 500, have been in a prolonged sideways movement with low volatility, while thematic rotations have accelerated. Key themes include AI technology breakthroughs, gold price fluctuations due to tariff disturbances, and the performance of new consumption leaders driven by globalization [4][20]. - The report highlights that active equity funds have outperformed passive index funds, with active equity funds yielding approximately 5.5% compared to 2.6% for passive index funds as of June 18, 2025. The report also notes significant inflows into money market funds and mixed bond funds, reflecting a shift towards lower-risk investments in a declining interest rate environment [5][24][29].

Employment Data - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000 and the revised previous value of 144,000[11] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2%[11] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.9% and revised previous increase of 3.8%[11] Government vs. Private Sector Employment - Government jobs contributed nearly half of the new employment, with 73,000 jobs added, significantly higher than the previous month's 7,000[15] - Private sector employment weakened, with service sector jobs dropping from 141,000 to 68,000, indicating potential economic pressure from tariff disruptions[18] - Retail sector employment rebounded slightly, adding 2,000 jobs compared to a loss of 7,000 in the previous month[24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, down from 62.4% in the previous month, with a notable decline in youth employment willingness[27] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 7.7% from 7.8%[32] - Permanent unemployment decreased by 29,000, while temporary job losses also declined, suggesting stability in the job market[32] Federal Reserve Outlook - Given the unsustainable rise in government employment and the risk of weakening non-farm data, the probability of the Federal Reserve restarting rate cuts in the second half of 2025 is significant[20] - Market expectations indicate a 60% chance of a rate cut in September 2025, with only a 5.2% chance in July[22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that COMEX gold prices are expected to steadily break through $3,300 per ounce, with a potential to reach $3,500 per ounce under extreme risk scenarios [1] - In the third quarter, if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, WTI oil prices may hit $75 per barrel due to transportation bottlenecks and seasonal demand [1] - By the fourth quarter, as demand weakens and OPEC+ resumes supply increases, WTI oil prices are projected to return to around $60 per barrel [1] Group 2 - The report highlights three major uncertainties for the second half of 2025: first, tariff disruptions, where U.S. tariff policies may reshape international order and global power structures, leading to potential re-imposition of tariffs post-agreement [1] - Second, credit reconstruction is noted, with the U.S. debt reaching $36.1 trillion and over 30% of short-term external debt, raising liquidity risks and questioning the dollar's credit system [1] - Third, geopolitical risks are emphasized, particularly with the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, which could lead to increased oil prices and global shipping costs, resulting in new structural re-evaluations of asset prices [1] Group 3 - In terms of global macroeconomic outlook, the report suggests that major economies are experiencing structural deceleration rather than typical recession, with the U.S. economy expected to transition slowly and steadily [2] - It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in the second half of 2025, likely in September and December, unless inflation remains resilient or growth data is strong [2]