1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for liquefied petroleum gas is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - If geopolitical risks do not reach an extreme scenario, the fundamental situation of LPG will loosen marginally in the second half of this year. The supply side will have greater adjustment flexibility driven by the expansion of terminals in the U.S. Gulf and the increase in OPEC+ production, while propane chemical demand will be negatively impacted by the Sino - U.S. tariff game. If the Sino - U.S. tariffs do not ease unexpectedly, the FEI - CP central level is expected to remain weak in the second half of the year. The domestic market will be more affected by the C4 end and warrant trading, and the PG/SC gas - oil ratio is expected to remain weak [4][107] 3. Summary by Table of Contents 3.1 1H25 Market Review - In Q1, both domestic and international contracts oscillated within a range. The fundamental contradictions of LPG itself changed relatively little. The rise of LPG was weaker than that of crude oil. In mid - February, the game around the basis of domestic near - month contracts increased significantly. After the oil price dropped, the basis supported the 03 contract and suppressed the long - term sentiment. From March to April, a positive spread trend emerged instead of the reverse spread trend in previous years. In March, due to the reduction of supply caused by increased maintenance of domestic liquefied gas plants and strong chemical demand, the near - month spreads of domestic and international markets showed a positive spread trend [17] - In Q2, the market volatility increased significantly, and the trading logics of domestic and international markets diverged. The change in Sino - U.S. tariff policy was the main factor affecting international prices. After the U.S. imposed a 34% tariff on China on April 4, the FEI price dropped sharply in early April. After the unexpected easing of Sino - U.S. tariffs on May 12, the FEI/CP spread strengthened, but the domestic market was suppressed by the weak C4 demand and a large number of warrants and fell smoothly [18] - In June, the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict brought a new round of shocks. The FEI/CP spread soared, and the domestic market's spread continued to weaken [19] 3.2 Supply in the Second Half of the Year 3.2.1 United States - In the first half of the year, the U.S. C3 production increased, with the average net C3 production in Q1 at 265 million barrels per day and further rising to 283 million barrels per day by mid - June. In the second half of the year, only one fractionation unit is planned to be put into operation in Q3, and the marginal increase in production is limited. It is expected that the C3 production will only increase slightly in Q3 and decline marginally in Q4 [26][27] - From January to May, the U.S. LPG export volume increased by 5% year - on - year. The export capacity will expand in the second half of the year, with ETP and Targa's export capacities expected to increase by 3.85 million and 0.6 million tons per year respectively. However, the actual export volume will be affected by factors such as Northeast Asian demand, Sino - U.S. tariff game, and potential substitution demand due to the Middle East conflict. In addition, the hurricane season from June to November may impact the export rhythm [32][35][37] 3.2.2 Middle East - In the first half of the year, the Middle East's LPG export volume increased by 3.3% year - on - year. The supply increment mainly came from countries other than Saudi Arabia. In the second half of the year, the supply increment space is relatively limited. Although there are some planned projects, the actual increment that can be realized this year is likely to be small. If OPEC+ relaxes oil production cuts as planned, the potential export increment in the Middle East is about 150,000 tons per month. However, if the geopolitical conflict persists, the supply may face significant tightening risks [43][44][45] 3.3 Demand in the Second Half of the Year 3.3.1 Combustion Demand - India's LPG demand was strong in the first half of the year, with imports increasing by 5.2% year - on - year from January to May. It is expected that the import and demand growth rates in the second half of the year will be similar to those in the first half, with an annual import growth rate of about 5%. Other Asian regions' combustion demand showed no bright spots in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to Japan's summer inventory - building progress [61][62] 3.3.2 Chemical Demand - In the cracking end, the demand in the first half of the year was weak due to the poor relative economy of LPG. It is expected that the cracking demand in the second half of the year will be weaker than that in the first half, depending on the change in the relative economy of FEI - MOPJ. Regarding the PDH end, although the PDH device profit improved in Q1, it was under pressure in Q2 due to tariff policies. In the second half of the year, the profit repair space is limited, and the operating rate is likely to decline marginally [69][73][74] 3.4 China's LPG Supply - Demand Balance - In the first half of the year, the domestic production of LPG decreased slightly year - on - year. The supply of domestic gas is expected to increase marginally in the second half of the year, mainly supported by the new CDU units in Zhenhai and Daxie. The domestic demand side is facing pressure, with the combustion demand weakening and the C4 chemical route performing weakly. Overall, if the current Sino - U.S. tariff scenario and geopolitical conflict intensity remain unchanged, the supply - demand balance in China is expected to be looser in the second half of the year [82][84][85] 3.5 Transportation Cost - If the geopolitical conflict remains at the current intensity, the impact on transportation costs in the second half of the year is limited. The freight rate on the U.S. Gulf - Far East route is expected to be relatively strong in the third quarter, mainly supported by factors such as geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, the hurricane season in the Atlantic, and potential congestion in the Panama Canal. However, the freight rate may weaken in the fourth quarter due to the planned launch of new ships [97][98] 3.6 Investment Suggestion - If geopolitical risks do not reach an extreme scenario, the fundamental situation of LPG will loosen marginally in the second half of the year. If the Sino - U.S. tariffs do not ease unexpectedly, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities. The domestic market will be affected by the C4 end and warrant trading, and the PG/SC gas - oil ratio is expected to remain weak [107]

Market Performance - The US stock market experienced a strong rally with all three major indices rising over 1%, marking a significant recovery in investor confidence [1][7] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.19%, gaining over 500 points, reaching its highest closing level since early March [1] - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices also saw increases of 1.43% and 1.11%, respectively, achieving their highest closing levels since late February [1] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks were key drivers of the index gains, with Intel rising over 6%, and Nvidia, Netflix, and Amazon each increasing by over 2% [2] - However, not all tech stocks performed well; Tesla fell over 2%, and Apple saw a slight decline, indicating market differentiation among tech companies [2] - Circle, a stablecoin company, dropped over 15%, reflecting the volatility and high risks associated with the cryptocurrency market [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the US saw a significant rally, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 3.31%, the largest single-day gain since May 13 [3] - Notable performers included Xiaoma Zhixing, which surged over 16%, and New Oriental, which rose over 13%, indicating positive market sentiment towards their growth prospects [3] - Other Chinese companies like Pinduoduo, Alibaba, and JD.com also experienced gains, reflecting international investors' confidence in the long-term development of the Chinese economy [3] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The market rally was influenced by multiple factors, including the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which eased geopolitical tensions [4] - A significant drop in international oil prices, with WTI crude falling over 6% to $64.37 per barrel, contributed to lowering production costs for companies and alleviating inflationary pressures [4] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate adjustments, as indicated by Chairman Powell, reflects the importance of trade policies on the US economy [5] Trade Relations - The ongoing complexity of global trade relations remains a focal point, with the EU preparing potential retaliatory tariffs against the US, which could impact economic interests on both sides [6] - The EU's proposal includes tariffs on $95 billion worth of US goods and measures targeting US tech companies, highlighting the potential for escalating trade tensions [6] Conclusion - The collective rise of US and Chinese stocks is attributed to a combination of geopolitical easing, falling oil prices, and optimistic economic outlooks [7] - However, uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and global trade dynamics continue to pose challenges for the market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by geopolitical tensions, U.S. monetary policy, and market sentiment, indicating a potential bullish trend in the long term despite short-term volatility [1][3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On June 23, gold opened over $20 higher but later fell, reaching a low of $3347.10 before recovering slightly to close at $3368.96, reflecting a daily fluctuation of $48.78 [1][3]. - The price was initially supported by geopolitical tensions but faced resistance due to profit-taking and comments from President Trump regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Iran [1][3]. - The outlook for June 24 suggests continued volatility, with gold prices expected to test previous lows while being supported by a declining U.S. dollar index [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Central Bank Policies - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. current account and consumer confidence index, are anticipated to positively impact gold prices [5]. - The article highlights that the market's focus is shifting back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the economic impact of tariffs, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts later in the year [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of prices potentially exceeding $4000 in the next year due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [6][7]. - The technical analysis indicates that gold prices are in a bullish trend, supported by moving averages, although there are concerns about a potential peak in the near term [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts, but it still holds potential for upward movement in prices [1][3][7]. Market Performance - Last week, international gold opened at $3450.30 per ounce, reached a high of $3451.04, and then fell to a low of $3340.21, closing at $3368.02, resulting in a weekly decline of $65.72 or 1.91% [1][3]. - The weekly trading range was $110.83, indicating volatility despite the overall downward trend [1]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Escalating geopolitical tensions and the lack of resolution have pressured gold prices, leading traders to lock in profits after reaching an 8-week high [3][6]. - U.S. economic data has been weaker than expected, reinforcing market expectations for interest rate cuts, which could support gold prices [3][6]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold, which is a significant factor supporting gold demand despite geopolitical and economic pressures [6][7]. - The Federal Reserve's projected interest rate cuts in the second half of the year are anticipated to further bolster gold prices [6][7]. Technical Analysis - The gold price remains above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating a bullish trend, with potential for new highs [1][10]. - The monthly chart shows that gold has maintained its upward trajectory since last year, suggesting a continued bullish outlook [9][10]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that gold prices could potentially exceed $4000 per ounce within the next year, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [7][6]. - Short-term strategies suggest looking for buying opportunities on dips, with key support levels identified around $3367 and $3355 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant economic events and data releases from June 16 to June 22, highlighting the impact of various central bank decisions and economic indicators on investment opportunities and market trends [2][4][5]. Economic Data Summary - China's real estate development investment from January to May decreased by 10.3% [2]. - In May, China's industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year [2]. - The retail sales growth in China for May was 5.1% year-on-year [2]. - The U.S. retail sales growth for May is expected to show zero growth month-on-month, indicating a slowdown [25][26]. Central Bank Decisions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the 5-year and 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points, marking the first reduction of the year [6][7]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a high probability of no change at 99% [9][10]. - The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, with market expectations leaning towards a pause in rate hikes [11][12]. Key Events - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum was held in Shanghai, focusing on global economic changes and financial cooperation [16][17]. - The G7 Summit took place, highlighting significant divisions among member countries regarding tariffs and international relations [18][20][22]. - The second China-Central Asia Leaders' Summit was held, emphasizing cooperation in trade, investment, and infrastructure [23][24]. Company Developments - Tesla's Robotaxi service is set to begin trial operations in Austin, Texas, with a limited fleet of 10 to 20 vehicles [31][32].

Economic Data and Events - China will release economic data for May, including retail sales and industrial output, with expectations of a stable performance compared to April [6][7] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to announce the June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [6][7] - The U.S. will report May retail sales, with forecasts indicating a slowdown in growth [19] Central Bank Decisions - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates during the June meeting, with a high probability of no changes [8] - The Bank of Japan is also anticipated to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% [10][11] - The European Central Bank will release its economic bulletin, providing insights into macroeconomic forecasts and inflation rates [20] International Summits - The second China-Central Asia Leaders' Summit will take place in Kazakhstan, focusing on trade and investment cooperation [17][18] - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai will address global economic changes and financial cooperation [14] - The G7 Summit will convene in Canada, with discussions expected to be contentious due to differing views on tariffs and international relations [15][16] Corporate Developments - Tesla plans to trial its Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, with a limited fleet of 10 to 20 vehicles equipped with new autonomous driving technology [24]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for fuel oil is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 2952.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 3020.00 CNY, reflecting a 3.05% increase [1] - The current fuel oil sales in China are 44,200 tons, up from 43,100 tons in the previous period, indicating a 2.55% increase [1] - The inventory rate for domestic fuel oil is at 6.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous period's 5.6% [1] Group 2 - ARA region fuel oil inventories have decreased, which is favorable for fuel oil prices [2] - The trade demand is recovering as tariff disputes move towards agreement, which is expected to support fuel oil prices [2] - The cost side is seeing a rebound in crude oil prices, which is anticipated to drive fuel oil prices higher [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing short - term and long - term investment suggestions based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors [5][8][11]. - It suggests that while the current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, different asset classes have different investment opportunities. For example, it is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and precious metals, and provides specific trading strategies for each futures product [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income (Bonds) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising by 0.23%, 0.06%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Analysis**: The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. Although China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, considering the Sino - US trade situation, it is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. 3.2 Equity Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures rose by 0.89%, 0.79%, 0.75%, and 0.63% respectively [8][9]. - **Analysis**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and the market lacks confidence in corporate earnings. However, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and investors can consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main gold contract closed at 777.54, up 0.32%, and the night - session closed at 780.36; the main silver contract closed at 8,902, up 0.17%, and the night - session closed at 8830 [11]. - **Analysis**: The World Bank has lowered the global GDP growth forecast for 2025. Given the complex global trade and financial environment and the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 3.4 Base Metals and Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The real - estate downturn and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. As the market enters the off - season, prices are at a new low for the year and may continue to decline. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. From a valuation perspective, the downside is limited. Technically, they may enter a weak - shock phase. Investors can consider short - selling on rebounds and manage their positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand balance has weakened marginally, but from a valuation perspective, it is still at a relatively high level. Technically, it has found support at previous lows. Investors can consider buying at low levels, taking profits on rebounds, and setting stop - losses if it breaks previous lows [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The market is in a state of oversupply, with high inventory and weak demand. Technically, they may stop falling in the short - term but remain weak in the medium - term. Investors can consider short - selling on rebounds and manage their positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main manganese - silicon contract fell 1.22% to 5486 yuan/ton, and the main silicon - iron contract rose 0.35% to 5184 yuan/ton. Supply is high while demand is weak, and high inventory is putting pressure on the market. In the short - term, prices are under pressure, and long - position investors should be cautious. If spot losses increase significantly, investors can consider low - value call options [19][20]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The Sino - US negotiations in London are positive for market sentiment. The US has set a deadline for the trade agreement, and tariff frictions are in the second half. The number of US oil and gas rigs has decreased, and shale oil production has increased while on - shore conventional oil production has decreased. It is recommended to take a long - position on the main crude - oil contract [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and broke through the moving - average group. The increase in ARA fuel - oil inventory is positive for the market. As tariff frictions enter the agreement - signing stage, global trade demand is recovering, and the rebound in crude - oil prices will drive up fuel - oil prices. It is recommended to take a long - position on the main fuel - oil contract [24][25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main synthetic - rubber contract fell 0.04%. Supply pressure has eased slightly, demand improvement is limited, and cost is expected to rebound, which may drive the market to stabilize. Investors can wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main natural - rubber contract rose 0.83%. The market is worried about future demand, and domestic inventory has increased against the seasonal trend. Supply has been affected by rain, and demand is expected to decline slightly. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities after the market stabilizes [28][30]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose 0.56%. The supply - demand drive is weak, and it is in the traditional off - season. The market is expected to remain in a low - level shock pattern with occasional rebounds. It is currently in a bottom - shock phase [31][33]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract fell 1.24%. Industrial demand has decreased, and agricultural demand is tepid. After the price decline, export and agricultural demand may support the market. Investors can consider taking long positions at low prices and continue to monitor policy changes and the spread between domestic and foreign markets [35][36]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract fell 0.37%. The supply - demand structure is tight in the short - term, and the cost is supported by crude - oil prices. However, after the PXN spread has recovered to a relatively high level, there is a downward pressure. It is recommended to trade within a range and pay attention to crude - oil price changes and macro - policy adjustments [37]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract fell 0.43%. The supply - demand structure has weakened, but inventory reduction has made it relatively resistant to decline. The cost is supported. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, and investors can consider trading within a low - price range and pay attention to opportunities to shrink the processing fee [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene - glycol contract rose 0.4%. Supply has increased slightly, demand has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. In the short - term, there is no upward drive, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2507 main contract rose 0.16%. Downstream demand has weakened, but the cost is supportive. As the processing fee is compressed, production may be further reduced. It is recommended to participate cautiously at low prices [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chips 2507 main contract fell 0.17%. The raw - material price has adjusted downward, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to follow the cost trend and oscillate. Investors should pay attention to cost - price changes [43]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 1202 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. Production is stable, and supply remains high, while downstream demand is tepid. In the short - term, the market is expected to be weakly stable with narrow price fluctuations. In the medium - to long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to improve, and long - position investors should be cautious [44][45]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 998 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drive. The market is affected by sentiment, and prices are mostly stable. In the short - term, there may be a bullish sentiment, but its sustainability is limited. Short - position investors at low levels should control their positions [46]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 2332 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. Some plants are under maintenance, and production capacity utilization is about 83.1%. In the long - term, new production capacity is expected to be released, and the overall supply is relatively loose. There are regional differences, and long - position investors should control their positions [47][49]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract closed at 5346 yuan/ton, down 0.78%. The supply - demand situation is weak, with high inventory and no obvious improvement in downstream pulp consumption. The increase in Brazilian shipments to China in May is a negative factor. The market is waiting for a signal to break the deadlock. In June, it is the traditional off - season, and the market is expected to improve in August [50][51]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium - carbonate contract rose 1.68% to 61680 yuan/ton. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The decline in ore prices has broken the cost support, and supply is expected to increase. Demand is weakening, and inventory remains high. Prices are difficult to reverse until large - scale ore - production capacity is cleared [52]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal main contract rose 0.93% to 3047 yuan/ton, and the soybean - oil main contract fell 0.93% to 7694 yuan/ton. US Midwest crop weather is good, and US soybean futures fell overnight. Brazilian soybean production is at a record high, and domestic soybean supply is abundant. It is expected that the upward movement of the soybean - meal main contract will be under pressure, and investors should wait and see. For soybean oil, the cost support at the bottom is strengthening, and investors can consider low - value call options [59][60]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm - oil prices have fallen for two consecutive days. In May, production and inventory increased, and exports also increased. In China, palm - oil imports have decreased year - on - year, and inventory is at the second - lowest level in the past seven years. It is recommended to consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [61][62][63]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed futures rose due to dry weather and improved trade prospects. In China, rapeseed - oil imports have increased year - on - year, and rapeseed - meal imports have increased in April. Rapeseed inventory is at a low level, while rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventory are at high levels. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities after the rapeseed - meal price correction [64][65]. - **Cotton**: Domestic and foreign cotton futures oscillated. Weather is favorable for cotton growth, and Sino - US negotiations are expected to be positive. The US cotton - growing rate is 76%, and the优良率 is 49%. Global cotton production has decreased, and consumption has increased. Currently, the industry is in the off - season, and new orders are limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies [66][67][68]. - **Sugar**: Domestic and foreign sugar futures fell. The 2024/25 sugar - production season has ended, with an increase in production and sales. India's sugar production is expected to be high, and Brazil's production is expected to pick up. Currently, domestic inventory is low, and imports are expected to increase. It is recommended to take long positions in batches [70][71][72]. - **Apple**: Domestic apple futures oscillated. There are reports of production cuts in some regions, and the specific production data will be clear after bagging. The inventory in the main producing areas has decreased, and the price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to future production - survey data [72]. - **Hog**: The national average hog price rose slightly. In the north, prices rebounded, and in the south, they were stable or slightly increased. In the short - term, consumption is improving, but in the medium - term, demand is weak. It is recommended to consider long - position spreads for peak - season contracts [73][74][75]. - **Egg**: The average egg price in the main producing and selling areas fell. The cost per catty of eggs has decreased, and the breeding profit is negative. The number of laying hens in May increased year - on - year and is expected to continue to increase in June. It is recommended to hold short positions in near - month contracts [76][77]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The main corn contract rose 0.08% to 2374 yuan/ton, and the main corn - starch contract rose 0.26% to 2709 yuan/ton. Corn - growing weather is good, and US corn futures fell overnight. North - port and south - port corn inventories are decreasing, and the supply pressure is short - term. Corn demand is growing slightly. Corn - starch production and demand are weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see [78][79][80]. - **Log**: The main 2507 contract closed at 765.0 yuan/ton, down 1.54%. The number of New Zealand log shipments to China in the 24th week is stable, and inventory is decreasing. The market has no obvious driving force, and the spot price is weak. The improvement in housing transactions may stimulate market sentiment in the short - term. As the 07 contract approaches the delivery month, beware of bullish - sentiment disturbances [81][82].

Core Viewpoint - In May, China's import and export growth rates declined due to tariff impacts, with exports slowing and imports decreasing significantly, while trade surplus expanded substantially [1][4]. Exports: Tariff Impact and Declining Growth - In May, export value grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a further slowdown of 3.3 percentage points from April, primarily due to a significant drop in exports to the U.S. [5] - The U.S. import demand weakened significantly, influenced by frequent adjustments in U.S. tariff policies and increased operational costs due to trade uncertainties [5] - Exports to non-U.S. regions, such as Europe (12%), ASEAN (14.8%), and Africa (33.3%), maintained strong growth, although the momentum may slow down in the future [5][8]. Import: Widening Decline - In May, the import value decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, a widening decline of 3.2 percentage points [14] - Imports from the U.S. fell by 18.1%, with the decline expanding by 4.3 percentage points compared to April, reflecting weak domestic demand [14] - Despite a significant decrease in imports from the U.S., imports from the EU showed a slight recovery, indicating a potential substitution effect [14]. Outlook: Export Pressure in the Second Half - Export growth is expected to further slow down in the second half of the year, with the average tariff rate on Chinese goods in the U.S. remaining high at 41.2% [17] - The ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and Southeast Asia may disrupt China's foreign investment pace and affect exports through multinational supply chains [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different investment strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their market conditions [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Fixed - Income and Equities - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a differentiated closing of treasury bond futures. The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and investors should remain cautious [5][6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and investors can consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. 3.2 Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures had different performances. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 3.3 Base Metals and Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate industry's downturn has led to a decline in rebar demand, and the market is in a slack season. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction. The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened marginally. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - loss points [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed weak oscillations. The market is in a supply - surplus pattern, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures had small increases. The short - term demand for ferroalloys may peak, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. If the spot losses increase significantly, investors can consider low - value call options [21][22]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper showed a strong upward trend. The upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations are positive for market sentiment, and investors can consider going long on Shanghai copper futures [56][57]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin showed an oscillating trend. The current shortage pattern in the real - world and the expectation of a loose supply are in a game, and it is expected that the upward pressure on tin prices is relatively large, with a bearish oscillating view [58][59]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The cost support is strong, but the downstream demand is weak, and it is expected that the price will run weakly [60]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and moved higher. The upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations are positive for market sentiment, and the OPEC's pressure on oil prices is expected to have passed the most severe stage. Investors can consider a long - position operation on the crude oil main contract [23][25][26]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The increase in Singapore's fuel oil inventory has put pressure on prices, but the rise in crude oil prices may drive fuel oil prices up. Investors can consider a long - position operation on the fuel oil main contract [27][28][29]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber showed a small increase. The supply pressure continues, and the demand improvement is limited. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures had different performances. The market has concerns about future demand, and the inventory has increased against the season. Wait for the market to stabilize and then look for long - position opportunities [32][33][34]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC showed a small increase. The supply - demand drive is not strong, and it is in a traditional off - season. It is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern [35][37]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea declined. The short - term cost has decreased, and the agricultural demand has not been released. In the second half of the year, exports and agricultural demand may drive the price up, and investors can consider going long at low levels [38][39][40]. - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: The previous trading day, PX futures declined. The short - term supply - demand structure is tight, but the PXN spread has a downward trend. It is recommended to trade with an oscillating mindset and pay attention to cost and policy changes [41]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The short - term supply - demand structure has weakened, but the cost has support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors can consider trading in a low - level range [42][43]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, but the inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and policy changes [44]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined slightly. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost has support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost, and investors can consider participating cautiously at low levels [45][46][47]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The raw material price has corrected, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to oscillate following the cost, and investors should pay attention to cost price changes [48]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is oversupplied. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable, and investors should not chase the rise excessively [49]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, glass futures increased. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drive, and the market sentiment is weak. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable, and short - position investors should control their positions [50]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, with obvious regional differences. Long - position investors should control their positions [51][52]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day, pulp futures increased. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and the inventory is high. The real turnaround may occur in August [53]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined slightly. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [54][55]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures increased. The U.S. soybean growing weather is good, and the supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal, and investors can consider low - value call options for soybean oil [61][62]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to increase, and the domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively low level in the past seven years. Investors can consider the opportunity to widen the rapeseed - palm oil spread [63][64]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed market lacks clear trading guidance. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil inventories have different trends. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after the correction of rapeseed meal [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic and foreign cotton futures increased slightly. The industry is in a traditional off - season, and new orders are limited. Investors should pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies and wait and see [67][68][69]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic and foreign sugar futures had different performances. The domestic sugar inventory is low, and the import volume will gradually increase. It is recommended to go long in batches [70][71][72]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day, apple futures declined significantly. The new - year domestic apple production has high uncertainty. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities after the correction [73][74]. - **Hogs**: The previous trading day, hog futures declined slightly. The short - term price may decline, but the contract is at a discount. Investors can consider positive - spread opportunities for peak - season contracts [74][75]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, egg futures declined. The egg supply is expected to increase in June, and it is recommended to go short at high levels [76][79]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures increased. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but the short - term supply pressure still exists. Corn starch follows the corn market, and it is recommended to wait and see [80][81][82]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, log futures increased. The fundamental situation has no obvious drive, and the housing transaction improvement may stimulate market sentiment in the short term. Investors should be wary of long - position sentiment disturbances [83][85].