1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously go long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and try to go long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Short on rebounds [1] - Lead: Bearish [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the gold and silver markets are affected by US inflation data and tariff negotiations, facing adjustments, but the long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged due to factors such as central bank gold purchases and loose monetary policies [1][2][3] - Copper has short - term inventory pressure due to the traditional off - season, but is bullish in the long - term because of the tight supply of copper concentrates and the increasing demand from the new energy industry [1][7][8] - Zinc is under short - term pressure due to the off - season and increasing supply, and is recommended to short on rebounds in the long - term as supply increases and demand decreases throughout the year [1][11][12] - Aluminum is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand in the off - season, and short - term rebound shorting is recommended [1][15][16] - Nickel is facing pressure due to weak downstream support and inventory accumulation, and shorting on rebounds is advised [1][19][20] - Lithium carbonate has a bearish outlook in the short - term as the fundamentals show inventory accumulation and weak demand, and shorting on rebounds is recommended [1][23][24] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US inflation data exceeds expectations, which weakens the interest - rate cut expectation, and the tariff risk fades, causing the gold and silver markets to face adjustments [2] - **Basic Logic**: The US - Mexico tariff negotiation is postponed, US data reduces the interest - rate cut expectation, and global gold demand continues to grow. In the short - term, the tariff risk fades, but in the long - term, the long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 760 for gold in the short - term. For silver, wait for it to stop falling and stabilize before going long as its long - term fundamentals are positive [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and falls back, testing the support at the 78,000 level [7] - **Industry Logic**: In the short - term, the contradiction lies in the inventory accumulation in the off - season and the inventory return pressure. In the medium - term, there is a co - existence of tight supply of copper concentrates and high production of electrolytic copper. In the long - term, there is uncertainty in demand due to trade wars and the potential demand explosion in the new energy field [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the tariff adjustment, COMEX copper plummets, and Shanghai copper is under pressure. Wait for copper to fully adjust before lightly going long. In the long - term, be bullish on copper [8] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuates narrowly at a low level [11] - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is loose, and domestic refined zinc production increases. The demand is weak in the off - season [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the macro - sentiment fades, zinc returns to its fundamentals. Short - term pressure causes it to fall back and consolidate at a low level. Partially take profit on previous short positions, and short on rebounds in the long - term [12] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure and weak, and alumina prices fall back [14] - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, inventory accumulates and demand is weak in the off - season. For alumina, the supply - demand pattern is loose [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on short - term rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the inventory accumulation progress in the off - season [16] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure and weaken, while stainless steel rebounds slightly [18] - **Industry Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines falls, and domestic nickel supply - demand is weak with inventory accumulation. Stainless steel production cuts weaken, and there is still over - supply in the off - season [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduces positions for four consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a drop of over 4% [22] - **Industry Logic**: The total inventory continues to accumulate, but the price increase transfers inventory from upstream to intermediate links. There are risks in Jiangxi's lithium mining licenses, and the market is volatile [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the speculative atmosphere fades, short on rebounds in the range of 68,000 - 70,500 [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - For gold, it's recommended to be cautious and go long. Short - term, the market may adjust, but long - term, it's suitable for strategic allocation due to factors like multi - country monetary policy easing and central bank gold purchases [1]. - For silver, it's advisable to try going long after stabilization. It follows the adjustment of gold and copper, but with a long - term upward trend due to economic demand and fiscal stimulus [1]. - For copper, it's suggested to go long on dips. Although it's under short - term pressure, it's still promising in the long run [1]. - For zinc, it's recommended to sell on rallies. It will face short - term pressure and a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long run [1]. - For lead, its price rebound is under pressure due to factors like inventory accumulation [1]. - For tin, its price rebound is under pressure because of slow复产 and inventory accumulation [1]. - For aluminum, its price rebound is under pressure due to high imports and inventory accumulation [1]. - For nickel, its price rebound is under pressure because of factors like inventory accumulation and weak terminal demand [1]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, it's advisable to be cautiously bullish, being vigilant about the risk of price drops [1]. - For lithium carbonate, it's advisable to be cautiously bullish, paying attention to support levels and being vigilant about price drops [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Due to Powell's tight - lipped stance, strong US data, and the fading of tariff risks, the gold and silver market has adjusted [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Tariff tensions have eased, US data has reduced the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the Fed's interest - rate decision has maintained the status quo. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support levels of gold at around 760 and silver at 9000 during the adjustment period [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper opened lower and fluctuated downward [5]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, electrolytic copper production is increasing, demand has mixed performance, and inventory is accumulating [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to factors like the expected exemption of copper tariffs and inventory accumulation, copper is under short - term pressure but promising in the long run. Focus on the price range of Shanghai copper at [77500, 79500] and London copper at [9650, 9850] dollars per ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc declined under pressure, and London zinc lost the 2800 mark [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, refined zinc production is increasing, and demand is weak during the off - season [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the fading of macro - sentiment, zinc returns to its fundamentals. It's under short - term pressure and has a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long run. Focus on the price range of Shanghai zinc at [22400, 22800] and London zinc at [2650, 2850] dollars per ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price rebound was weak, and alumina rebounded and then declined [11]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, production capacity is increasing, inventory is accumulating, and demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is also accumulating [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's advisable to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, paying attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000, 20800] [13]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price rebound was under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [15]. - **Industry Logic**: For nickel, overseas uncertainty remains, and inventory is accumulating. For stainless steel, production cuts are weakening, and inventory pressure is emerging during the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's advisable to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000, 123000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for three consecutive days and rose and then fell during the day [19]. - **Industry Logic**: Total inventory is accumulating, but price increases are shifting inventory. Production is rising despite some company cut - offs. The compliance risk of lithium mining licenses is a focus, and there may be significant fluctuations [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's advisable to wait and see, paying attention to the support at 68,000. The price range is [70000, 73500] [21].

Market Overview - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.46%, S&P 500 down 0.30%, and Nasdaq down 0.38% due to tariffs and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - Technology stocks mostly declined, with Meta, Tesla, and Apple each falling over 1%, while Google rose 1.56% [1] - Novo Nordisk, a leader in weight-loss drugs, plummeted 21% after lowering its full-year earnings guidance, negatively impacting the healthcare sector [1] Chinese Market Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.35%, continuing its downward trend [1] - Li Auto led the decline with a drop of 6.20%, followed by JD.com down 3.01%, Baidu down 2.91%, and both Alibaba and NIO down over 2% [1] - Tencent Music and Manbang saw slight increases amidst the overall market decline [1] Economic Sentiment - Concerns over tariffs are contributing to foreign capital outflow pressures [1] - Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the market largely anticipates that the Fed will maintain current rates in its upcoming policy meeting [1] - Goldman Sachs warned that tariff risks could reignite recession fears, leading to increased market volatility [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Adjustment for long - term strategic allocation due to potential dollar weakness, monetary policy easing, and continued gold purchases by countries, despite short - term uncertainties from geopolitics and trade negotiations [1] - Silver: Follow gold and copper adjustments, with long - term upward trend intact due to economic demand and fiscal stimulus, short - term adjustment to focus on support around 9050 [1] - Copper: Short - term struggle at the 79,000 psychological level, recommend dip - buying, long - term bullish due to global copper mine tightness [1][7] - Zinc: Short - term wait - and - see due to uncertain sentiment, long - term supply - increase and demand - decrease, look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][10] - Lead: Price rebound is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak downstream consumption [1] - Tin: Price rebound is under pressure due to slow复产 in Myanmar, weak supply - demand, and inventory accumulation [1] - Aluminum: Price rebound is under pressure due to high - level imports of bauxite and inventory accumulation in the off - season [1][12] - Nickel: Price rebound is under pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [1][13] - Industrial Silicon: Likely to remain at a high level despite supply increase and demand drag [1] - Polysilicon: Likely to remain at a high level with strong cost support but limited spot trading [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range oscillation with supply - side risks, focus on 69,000 support [1][15] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Gold and silver prices oscillated at high levels due to the uncertain cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine and weak US data [2] - **基本逻辑**: Short - term tariff risks receded, but long - term gold bullish logic remains due to Fed rate - cut expectations, debt issuance acceleration, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping [3] - **策略推荐**: Focus on support around 760 for gold and 9100 for silver, maintain long - term views [4] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, back to the 79,000 level [6] - **产业逻辑**: Tight copper concentrate supply, increasing electrolytic copper production, weakening rod - making开工率, and potential impact of US tariff policies on exports [6] - **策略推荐**: Short - term dip - buying on copper, long - term bullish, focus on Shanghai copper range [78,000, 80,000] and London copper range [9700, 9900] [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc stopped falling and oscillated narrowly [9] - **产业逻辑**: Abundant zinc concentrate supply in 2025, increasing refined zinc production, weak demand in the off - season [9] - **策略推荐**: Short - term wait - and - see, long - term short - selling on rallies, focus on Shanghai zinc range [22,400, 22,800] and London zinc range [2650, 2850] [10] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, while alumina prices rebounded [11] - **产业逻辑**: High - level aluminum ingot and bar inventory in the off - season, weakening downstream开工率, and abundant alumina supply [12] - **策略推荐**: Short - term short - selling on aluminum rallies, focus on the range [20,000, 20,800] [12] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices faced pressure on rebounds, while stainless steel prices rebounded slightly [13] - **产业逻辑**: Weak nickel supply - demand, inventory accumulation, and over - supply in the stainless steel market during the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: Short - selling on nickel and stainless steel rallies, focus on the nickel range [120,000, 123,000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 significantly reduced positions with a 6% decline [14] - **产业逻辑**: Inventory accumulation, production increase despite some corporate cut - offs, and potential impact of mining license risks [15] - **策略推荐**: Wait - and - see, focus on the 69,000 support level [15]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the U.S. smartphone market, with India emerging as the primary production hub for smartphones aimed at the U.S. market due to increasing uncertainties in U.S.-China trade relations [2][3] - Smartphone shipments in the U.S. are projected to grow by 1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, despite a notable decline in iPhone shipments and strong growth for Samsung [1][4] Shipment Data Summary - In Q2 2025, iPhone shipments fell by 11% to 13.3 million units, while Samsung's shipments increased by 38% to 8.3 million units [1][7] - Motorola's shipments grew by 2% to 3.2 million units, Google saw a 13% increase to 800,000 units, and TCL experienced a 23% decline to 700,000 units [1][7] Supply Chain and Inventory Management - Manufacturers are preemptively increasing inventory levels to mitigate potential tariff impacts, with Apple and Samsung notably raising their stock levels in anticipation of possible tariffs [3][4] - Despite high inventory levels, overall market demand remains weak, indicating a growing gap between shipments and actual sales [4] Market Dynamics and Challenges - The article discusses the increasing difficulty for small and medium-sized brands to establish a foothold in the U.S. market, as over 90% of market share is dominated by the top three manufacturers [5][6] - Companies like HMD are scaling back their U.S. operations, highlighting the challenges faced by smaller players in the current market environment [5][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term tariff risks have subsided, but long - term gold has a bullish logic due to factors like the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, accelerated debt issuance, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping [1][2]. - Silver is under high - level pressure. It follows the adjustment of gold and copper. Although its fundamentals have little change, economic demand provides support, and its long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1]. - Copper is in a situation where bulls and bears are competing at a key psychological level. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and there is long - term confidence in copper [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure and is expected to have a supply increase and demand decrease in the long - term. It is advisable to short on rallies [1][9]. - Lead is under pressure due to factors such as the slow recovery of domestic primary lead smelters, the resumption of production of secondary lead enterprises, and weak downstream consumption [1]. - Tin is under pressure as the domestic tin smelting industry is in a state of weak supply and demand, and terminal consumption has entered the off - season [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure because of high - level imports of overseas bauxite, inventory accumulation during the off - season, and a weakening开工率 in the aluminum processing industry [1][11]. - Nickel is weak. Overseas nickel ore prices are stable, but downstream stainless - steel production cuts have slowed, and there is still pressure during the terminal consumption off - season [1][13]. - Industrial silicon is in a correction due to factors such as a decline in the "anti - involution" trading sentiment and the impact of a limit - down in coking coal prices [1]. - Polysilicon is in high - level oscillation. The statement of "sales price not lower than cost" provides strong support, but the spot trading volume is limited [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a weak downward trend. The overall inventory is accumulating, and the market sentiment may return to the fundamentals after reaching a peak [1][15]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Due to the agreement on tariffs between the US and Europe, the risk - aversion sentiment subsided, leading to an adjustment in both domestic and foreign gold and silver [2]. - **基本逻辑**: The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and China and the US are in negotiations. The short - term tariff risk has subsided, but factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, accelerated debt issuance, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping support the long - term bullish logic of gold [2]. - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to the support around 760 for gold and 9050 for silver. Treat silver's short - term adjustment as a trading idea [3]. Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, returning to the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **产业逻辑**: The tight situation of copper concentrates persists. Although the production of electrolytic copper is increasing, the demand has mixed performances. There are concerns about the impact of a potential 50% import tariff on US copper in August on China's copper and copper product exports [5]. - **策略推荐**: The signing of the US - EU trade agreement and China - US negotiations have eased tariff concerns. The US dollar index has risen, putting pressure on copper prices. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and the long - term outlook for copper is positive. The attention range for Shanghai copper is [78,000, 80,000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [9,700, 9,900] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc fell under pressure [8]. - **产业逻辑**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant. Domestic new smelting capacities are being released, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. On the demand side, although the rebound of black steel prices has boosted galvanizing demand confidence, it is currently the off - season, and enterprise开工率 is weak [8]. - **策略推荐**: The cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment, abundant supply, and inventory accumulation during the off - season have put pressure on zinc prices. In the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease. It is advisable to short on rallies. The attention range for Shanghai zinc is [22,400, 22,800] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [2,650, 2,850] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina showed a downward trend [10]. - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic market sentiment has changed, production capacity has increased, and inventory has accumulated. For alumina, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite changes [11]. - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to short on rallies for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20,000, 20,800] yuan/ton, and alumina is expected to be under pressure [11]. Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices weakened significantly, and stainless steel fell under pressure [12]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas nickel ore prices are falling, and domestic nickel supply and demand are still weak. Stainless - steel production cuts have slowed, and there is still inventory pressure during the off - season [13]. - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120,000, 123,000] yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 significantly reduced its positions and hit the limit - down [14]. - **产业逻辑**: The overall inventory is accumulating, and the price increase has led to inventory transfer from upstream to the middle. Although there are production cuts in some areas, the production still shows an upward trend. The new - energy vehicle market has a sales decline, and the "anti - involution" policy expectation has become a focus. The supply surplus for the whole year will narrow. The market may return to fundamentals after the sentiment peak [15]. - **策略推荐**: It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach with the price range of [70,000, 73,000] yuan/ton [15].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. Individual metal品种ratings are as follows: gold - high - level adjustment; silver - high - level adjustment; copper - rebound under pressure; zinc - rebound under pressure; lead - under pressure; tin - under pressure; aluminum - under pressure; nickel - weak; industrial silicon - correction; polysilicon - correction; lithium carbonate - cautiously bullish [1] Group 2: Core Views - Short - term tariff risks have subsided, but long - term bullish logic for gold remains due to factors like Fed rate - cut expectations, debt issuance, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping. Silver follows gold and basic metals in adjustment, with long - term upward trend intact. Copper, zinc, lead, tin, and aluminum prices are under pressure due to various factors such as inventory changes and supply - demand imbalances. Nickel price is weak, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are in correction. Lithium carbonate has a cautiously bullish outlook with potential for price fluctuations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Metal (Gold and Silver) Gold - **Core view**: High - level adjustment [1] - **Logic**: Short - term tariff risks are reduced, but long - term factors like weak dollar trend, loose monetary policies, and central bank gold purchases support long - term strategic allocation [1] - **Price range**: [765 - 784] [1] - **Strategy**: Focus on support around 765, long - term trend remains unchanged [3] Silver - **Core view**: High - level adjustment [1] - **Logic**: Follows gold and basic metals in adjustment. Economic demand supports, and long - term upward trend is intact due to fiscal stimulus for industrial demand [1] - **Price range**: [9050 - 9350] [1] - **Strategy**: Focus on 9050 support, treat as short - term adjustment [3] Group 4: Summary by Metal (Copper) - **Core view**: Rebound under pressure [1] - **Logic**: Overseas inventory accumulation, potential US copper import tariff, and high electrolytic copper production drag down prices. However, long - term supply shortage and strategic importance support long - term bullish view [1][5] - **Price range**: Shanghai copper [78000, 79500], London copper [9700, 9850] dollars/ton [1][6] - **Strategy**: Wait for price to stabilize and then look for buying opportunities at low prices [6] Group 5: Summary by Metal (Zinc) - **Core view**: Rebound under pressure [1] - **Logic**: Abundant supply in 2025, increased domestic smelting capacity, and weak demand during off - season lead to price pressure [1][8] - **Price range**: Shanghai zinc [22500, 23000], London zinc [2700, 2900] dollars/ton [1][9] - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [9] Group 6: Summary by Metal (Aluminum) - **Core view**: Under pressure [1] - **Logic**: Domestic consumption is weak, with inventory accumulation and declining downstream processing industry's operating rate. Alumina supply - demand is expected to be loose [1][10][11] - **Price range**: Shanghai aluminum [20000 - 20800] [11] - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to inventory changes [11] Group 7: Summary by Metal (Nickel) - **Core view**: Weak [1] - **Logic**: Uncertain overseas environment, potential high tariffs on Russian nickel, and weak domestic supply - demand situation with inventory accumulation and weak downstream consumption [1][12][13] - **Price range**: [120000 - 123000] [13] - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds, pay attention to inventory changes [13] Group 8: Summary by Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Logic**: Supply disruptions exist, and the expected annual surplus is reduced. However, beware of price fluctuations due to market sentiment [1][14][15] - **Price range**: [77000 - 80000] [15] - **Strategy**: Take profit on long positions and wait and see [15]

Group 1 - The Eurozone PMI rose to an 11-month high in July, indicating a mixed economic outlook with services expanding while manufacturing remains in contraction [1][2] - The July composite PMI increased from 50.6 in June to 51.0, suggesting a slight recovery in demand, particularly in the services sector [2][3] - Manufacturing output in the Eurozone saw a significant increase in May, driven by a 27.7% rise in pharmaceutical production, although this growth was concentrated in Ireland [2][4] Group 2 - The German composite PMI stood at 50.3, with manufacturing PMI at 49.2 and services PMI at 50.1, indicating a fragile economic environment [3][4] - France's composite PMI rose to 49.6 but remained below the critical threshold of 50, marking 11 consecutive months of decline, influenced by political controversies [3][4] - Spain's services sector continued to lead with a PMI above 54, while Ireland's manufacturing PMI increased to 53.7, although its services sector showed signs of slowing [3][4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained key interest rates amid economic uncertainty and rising tariff risks, with the deposit facility rate at 2.00% and the main refinancing rate at 2.15% [4][5] - The ECB's monetary policy decisions are heavily influenced by trade-related uncertainties, which are affecting business and consumer behavior [4][5] - The Eurozone's GDP growth for Q2 was reported at 0.6%, with future growth dependent on upcoming economic indicators and the outcome of tariff negotiations [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment, long-term strategic allocation [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Bounce under pressure, long-term optimistic [1] - Zinc: Bounce under pressure, long-term supply increase and demand decrease [1] - Lead: Bounce under pressure [1] - Tin: Bounce under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bounce under pressure [1] - Nickel: Bounce under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - Some tariffs have been implemented, reducing the safe-haven sentiment, leading to an adjustment in gold and silver prices. However, the strong long-term support factors for gold, such as a weak US dollar, interest rate cuts, debt issuance, and central bank gold purchases, still exist [2] - The copper market is affected by a rebound in the US dollar index, with high-level consolidation. In the long term, the tight global copper ore supply and its strategic importance support a positive outlook [5] - The zinc market faces supply surplus and demand weakness during the off-season, with prices under pressure. Long-term, there are opportunities to short on rallies [8] - The aluminum market is pressured by inventory accumulation, and the price rebound is limited. Alumina also shows a similar trend [11] - The nickel market is suppressed by supply factors, and the price is under pressure. Stainless steel also faces inventory pressure during the off-season [13] - The lithium carbonate market is influenced by supply disruptions, and the price remains strong. Low-buying strategies are recommended [14] Summary by Variety Gold - **Core view**: High-level adjustment, long-term strategic allocation [1] - **Main logic**: Short-term tariff risks have landed, reducing the risk and causing a price adjustment. However, Powell's pressure, a medium-term weak US dollar trend, and loose monetary policies of multiple countries, along with continued central bank gold purchases, support long-term investment [1] - **Price range**: 770 - 794 [1] Silver - **Core view**: Bullish [1] - **Main logic**: Supported by economic demand, with increased industrial and physical demand due to loose fiscal policies. Short-term, it is affected by gold's adjustment sentiment [1] - **Price range**: 9250 - 9550 [1] Copper - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure, long-term optimistic [1] - **Main logic**: The US dollar index rebounds, and domestic social copper inventories have decreased seasonally. In the long term, the tight global copper ore supply and its strategic importance support a positive outlook [1][6] - **Price range**: Shanghai copper 78500 - 80500; London copper 9700 - 10000 USD/ton [7] Zinc - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure, long-term supply increase and demand decrease [1] - **Main logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and new smelting capacity is being released. Demand is weak during the off-season [9] - **Price range**: Shanghai zinc 22600 - 23200; London zinc 2750 - 2950 USD/ton [10] Lead - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Affected by maintenance in domestic primary lead smelters and increased losses in secondary lead enterprises, with high social inventories [1] - **Price range**: 16500 - 17200 [1] Tin - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State tin mines during the rainy season, with weak supply and demand in the domestic market and inventory accumulation [1] - **Price range**: 265000 - 273000 [1] Aluminum - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Disturbance from overseas bauxite news, inventory accumulation in domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods, and weakening开工率 in the aluminum processing industry [1][11] - **Price range**: 20500 - 21000 [1] Nickel - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Stable overseas nickel ore prices, slowdown in downstream stainless steel production cuts, and inventory accumulation during the off-season [1][13] - **Price range**: 122000 - 124000 [1] Industrial Silicon - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Main logic**: The market is strongly influenced by policies, with an increase in southwest开工率 and stable demand [1] - **Price range**: 9600 - 10000 [1] Polysilicon - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Main logic**: The "sales price not lower than cost" provides strong support, with little change in fundamentals and positive market sentiment [1] - **Price range**: 51000 - 56000 [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Core view**: Bullish [1] - **Main logic**: Little change in fundamentals, sensitive to positive news, and influenced by supply disruptions. Technical indicators are strong [1][15] - **Price range**: 75000 - 80000 [1]

惠誉评级：关税、市场和地缘政治风险对全球信用构成持续威胁。 ...