Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Caida Futures | Weekly Report on Live Pigs and Corn" [1][2] - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Tian Jinlian [3] Group 2: Live Pig Market Market Performance - Futures: The LH2601 contract of live pig futures closed at 12,140 yuan/ton, down 4.78% from the previous week's settlement price [4] - Spot: The national average price of external ternary live pigs was 11.48 yuan/kg, down 1.03 yuan/kg week-on-week [4] - Profit: As of October 10, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was - 152.15 yuan/head, down 78.04 yuan/head week - on - week; the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 301.04 yuan/head, down 64.47 yuan/head week - on - week; the pig - grain ratio was 5.26, down 0.18 week - on - week [4] Market Analysis - Supply: Group farms continued to increase supply, and although some retail farmers had the psychology of delaying sales, the overall market supply did not decrease [4] - Demand: After the holiday, demand declined, and market transactions were weak [4] - Outlook: In the short term, the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse, and the live pig market is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of farmers and the performance of secondary fattening [4] Group 3: Corn Market Market Performance - Futures: The C2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2,125 yuan/ton, down 1.02% from the previous week's settlement price; the C2601 contract closed at 2,125 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [5] - Spot: The national average price of corn was 2,308.43 yuan/ton, down 60.2 yuan/ton week - on - week [5] - Port: Prices at major ports such as Jinzhou Port, Bayuquan Port, and Guangdong Shekou Port all declined [5] Industrial Consumption - Deep - processing: From October 2 to October 8, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1927 million tons of corn, an increase of 31,700 tons week - on - week [6] - Starch: The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 544,500 tons, an increase of 17,800 tons; the weekly output was 268,000 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons; the weekly operating rate was 51.81%, up from the previous week [6] - Alcohol: The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 54.96%, up 3.49 percentage points; the weekly production was 111,840 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons, or 6.78% [6] Inventory - Processing Enterprises: As of October 8, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.334 million tons, an increase of 14.64% [6] - Ports: As of October 10, the total corn inventory of four northern ports was about 700,000 tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 320,000 tons [6] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is gradually being listed, and the arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises has increased [7] - Demand: The operating rate of the industry is gradually increasing, and there is still an expectation of further improvement [7] - Outlook: In the short term, corn prices are still under pressure, and attention should be paid to the support level of 2,100 yuan/ton on the futures market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The market is in a bearish trend with a strong supply and weak demand dynamic. The recent decline in pig prices during the holiday period reflects a significant increase in supply, while demand has not matched this increase, indicating that the bottom for pig prices may not have been reached yet [4]. Supply and Demand Logic - Short-term supply pressure continues with no positive drivers for pig prices, which are currently weak. The average price in many regions has fallen below 12 yuan per kilogram. The post-holiday demand is expected to decline, leading to sustained pressure on supply and prices [8]. - In the medium to long term, the supply base is established, and the overall trend for pig prices is expected to remain weak. There is potential for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, but speculative demand may influence short-term price movements [10]. Breeding and Slaughtering - The breeding sector is experiencing increased output, with the average weight of pigs being slightly reduced, indicating a stronger willingness to sell among farmers. However, the overall weight remains high compared to the same period last year, suggesting continued pressure [20][21]. - The slaughtering industry is seeing a post-holiday decline in operational rates and slaughter volumes, with average daily slaughtering volume dropping by 4.53% [35][36]. Cost and Profit Analysis - The breeding costs have remained relatively stable, but profits are being heavily influenced by falling pig prices. Currently, the breeding sector is experiencing losses, with self-breeding profits at approximately -135.62 yuan per head [48]. - The price of piglets continues to decline, leading to negative profits for piglet sales, which may affect the overall production capacity in the future [52]. Price Structure - The market is characterized by oversupply, leading to continued declines in spot prices. The price difference between fat and lean pigs has widened, indicating a more significant drop in lean pig prices compared to fat pigs [28][62].

Report Overview - Report Name: Weekly Report on the Pig Market [2] - Date: October 10, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Industry: Pig Market 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The pig price opened significantly lower and declined after the holiday, with the main contract 2511 falling 8.38% weekly. In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern of pigs remains loose, and the pig price will oscillate weakly. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading on the 2601 contract or perform reverse arbitrage operations on pig futures [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The pig price opened low and dropped after the holiday, with the main contract 2511 down 8.38% weekly [7][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure persists in the near - term due to the inventory cycle of piglets and breeding sows and postponed slaughter plans. Retail farmers are actively selling due to losses and pessimism. Post - holiday demand declines, and slaughterhouse operations decrease. The short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the pig price will oscillate weakly. Suggest short - side trading on the 2601 contract or reverse arbitrage on pig futures [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price fell, and the main contract 2511 dropped 8.38% weekly [7][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 10, the net short position of the top 20 holders increased by 5388 lots to 33089 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts remained at 0, unchanged from before the holiday [16]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 180, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was - 385 [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Basis**: The basis of the November contract was - 320 yuan/ton, and the basis of the January contract was - 1140 yuan/ton [27]. - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average pig price was 12.5 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from last week and 5.94% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 24.86 yuan/kg, down 0.52 yuan/kg from last week and 11.21% from last month [34]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: The national average pork price on September 25 was 24.29 yuan/kg, down 0.22 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows last week was 32.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [38]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of September 24, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.68, down 0.13 from the previous week and below 6:1 [42]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In August 2025, the national breeding sow inventory was 40380000 heads, down 40000 heads month - on - month, up 0.05% year - on - year, and 103.5% of the normal level. Among the 208 sample enterprises, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 5056500 heads, down 0.83% month - on - month and up 1.86% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 173900 heads, down 0.09% month - on - month and up 5.92% year - on - year [47]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the national pig inventory was 424470000 heads, up 7160000 heads from the previous quarter and 9140000 heads year - on - year. In August, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 3614500000 heads, up 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms in July was 148820000 heads, up 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [52]. - **Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 1070350000 heads, up 2.56% month - on - month and 23.49% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms in July was 47370000 heads, down 1.44% month - on - month and up 54.30% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary pigs was 123.48 kg, up 0.01 kg from last week [57]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of September 26, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 236.57 yuan/head, an increase of 37.25 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 74.11 yuan/head, a decrease of 49.66 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was 0.11 yuan/head, down 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.40 yuan/head [62]. - **Pork Imports**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative pork imports were 710000 tons, with a monthly average of 88750 tons. In August, the imports were 80000 tons, down 11.11% year - on - year [63][67]. - **Substitute Products**: As of September 26, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from last week. As of October 9, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.59 yuan/kg, with the price difference of fat pigs expanding by 0.2 yuan/kg [70]. - **Feed Situation**: As of October 10, the spot price of soybean meal was 3013.71 yuan/ton, down 4.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2311.57 yuan/ton, down 57.06 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 877.43, down 0.99% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week. In August 2025, the monthly feed output was 2927200 tons, up 99900 tons month - on - month; the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.04% month - on - month and 0.74% year - on - year [76][82][85]. - **CPI**: As of August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughterhouse Operations**: In the 41st week, the slaughterhouse operation rate was 34.53%, down 1.24 percentage points from last week but higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen - product storage rate was 17.75%, up 0.1 percentage points from last week [92]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of August 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses was 33500000 heads, up 5.81% month - on - month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 44957000000 yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [97]. 3.7 Pig Stocks - The report presents the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [98][101]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment view: Oscillating with a bearish bias [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in supply has made the spot market weak, and the downstream demand is limited. The futures market may remain weak. The 01 contract's upside is restricted by increased production capacity until February next year. If there are winter epidemics, there will be short - term selling pressure. With piglets in continuous loss for a month, if the loss situation persists, the long - term investment value of the far - month 07 contract can be considered [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Market Review - In September, the spot price hit a new low since the beginning of the year, and the overall price center has been declining. The price mainly fluctuates between 12.8 yuan/kg and 16 yuan/kg, with no obvious seasonal trend. The recent decline is due to increased supply and high slaughter weight, indicating abundant production capacity [4] - From July to August, affected by winter piglet losses, the slaughter slowed down. In June, under the background of anti - involution, production capacity regulation stimulated the spot market. The price difference between standard and fat pigs widened, and group farms reduced slaughter while secondary fattening was active, leading to a price increase in July. In September, the slaughter growth inflection point arrived, with production capacity restoration from high - profit piglets in the first quarter. The anti - involution sentiment faded, and the spot price dropped to the lowest point of the year, but the decline was gentle compared to the past five years [6] 3.1.2 Spread Market Review - Affected by anti - involution, the futures - spot structure has shifted to contango. As the spot market weakened in September, the futures market followed passively, maintaining the contango structure. The 07 contract has the highest price due to the expected impact of production capacity reduction on next year's second half - year supply [3][7] 3.2 Capacity Realization in the Cycle 3.2.1 Gradual Restoration of Reproductive Sows - In the second half of the year, the monthly change in the number of reproductive sows was small. As of the end of July, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, 103.6% of the normal level of 39 million. According to the meeting, the number of reproductive sows is expected to be reduced by 1 million by the end of the year, still above the normal level [3][10] 3.2.2 Obvious Improvement in Production Efficiency - In the third quarter, the monthly slaughter volume increased significantly, reflecting the restoration of piglet production capacity in spring. The high piglet profit in February and March stimulated breeding, and the number of piglets increased. The slaughter volume is expected to continue to rise until February 2026, with a significant increase from September to November [3][13] - Since 2023, production efficiency has improved significantly. The average number of healthy piglets per litter has shown an upward trend and remained stable at a high level throughout the year, which is related to increased production capacity and attention to piglet survival rate due to high profits [15] 3.2.3 Steady Increase in Slaughter Weight - The large price difference between standard and fat pigs this year led to low expectations for weight reduction. In the second half of the year, the slaughter weight reached the highest level in the past five years. Although leading enterprises have reduced the weight, the overall national weight reduction is not obvious. The current average national slaughter weight is 128.32 kg, still at a high level in the past five years. Continuous secondary fattening has hindered active weight reduction [16][18] 3.3 Breeding Profit - This week, the self - breeding and self - raising profit entered a loss, ending 16 consecutive months of positive profit. However, the cash cost of breeding is still positive. The positive profit in this cycle is mainly due to the decline in feed raw material prices and the reduction of purchased piglet prices to the cost level. Short - term losses have little impact on breeding behavior, but if losses continue for more than a quarter, there may be motivation to reduce production capacity [21][23] 3.4 Stable Demand - This year's slaughter volume is better than last year, and the overall demand is normal. During the fourth - quarter peak season, the relatively low pig price supports demand. The increase in the frozen product inventory rate reflects the expectation of production capacity reduction in the future [24] 3.5 Policy Attention - The policy focuses on the active reduction of reproductive sows, aiming to reduce the number by 1 million by the end of the year. If implemented, it may affect the pig slaughter volume in the second half of next year. The current pig - grain ratio has triggered the purchase and storage policy. Although the grain price increase is limited due to a good corn harvest, attention should still be paid to policies related to the pig - grain ratio caused by falling pig prices [27]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian crude palm oil futures may face pressure to fall back and seek support at 4300 ringgit, with a chance of rebounding later. Domestic palm oil futures may also decline, with an expected correction to the 8800 - 9000 yuan range. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals of US soybean oil have little change. The seasonal supply pressure from the US soybean harvest drags down the market. In China, post - holiday demand will weaken, and supply may increase, resulting in a short - term oversupply situation [1]. 2. Pork - In the short - term, the supply and demand of the pork market both increase, with chaotic spot quotes and larger declines in some areas. In the medium - term, demand recovers slowly, and supply is clearly recovering, with weak demand absorption. The market is expected to fluctuate and adjust, following the spot price with small fluctuations [3]. 3. Corn - In the short - term, the supply of new corn in the market is increasing. The price in the northeast is weak, and the price in the north China is under pressure. The demand side has a seasonal restocking demand. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and farmers' selling mentality [5]. 4. Meal - US soybeans are expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. The basis of domestic meal is supported before the festival. The purchase of Argentine soybeans eases the supply gap to some extent. The near - month increase of soybean meal is weak, and the 1 - 5 spread may continue to weaken in the short - term [8]. 5. Sugar - In the short - term, the international raw sugar price is dragged down by Brazilian production and demand. It is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern. New sugar in China will be on the market soon, putting pressure on the spot market. The domestic market is expected to be weak [10]. 6. Cotton - The supply side has a large hedging pressure after the new cotton is purchased. The demand side has low confidence in the peak season, and the demand is less than in previous years. The domestic cotton price may be under pressure in the short - to - medium term [11]. 7. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is sufficient. With the approaching of the double festivals, the demand for eggs may increase. Egg prices are expected to oscillate in a bottom - level range [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu on September 26 was 8470 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.36% from September 25. The futures price of Y2601 was 8162 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 0.37%. The basis of Y2601 was 308 yuan, up 60 yuan or 24.19% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on September 26 was 9230 yuan, up 60 yuan or 0.65%. The futures price of P2601 was 9236 yuan, up 14 yuan or 0.15%. The basis of P2601 was - 6 yuan, up 46 yuan or 88.46% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on September 26 was 10240 yuan, up 200 yuan or 1.99%. The futures price of OI601 was 10162 yuan, up 20 yuan or 0.20%. The basis of OI601 was 78 yuan, up 180 yuan or 176.47% [1]. - **Spread Changes**: - **Inter - month spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil on September 28 was 236 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 9.92% from September 26; that of palm oil was 184 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 4.17%; that of rapeseed oil was 520 yuan, up 36 yuan or 7.44% [1]. - **Cross - variety spreads**: The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 760 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 4.11%; the 2601 spread was - 1126 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 2.36%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1770 yuan, unchanged; the 2601 spread was 2000 yuan, up 50 yuan or 2.56% [1]. 2. Pork - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract basis was - 45 yuan, up 90 yuan or 66.67%. The price of the live hog 2511 contract was 12575 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan or - 0.87%; the price of the 2601 contract was 13100 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan or - 1.58% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Henan was 12530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; that in Shandong was 12840 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [3]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 143630, down 11434 or - 7.37%. The weekly white - strip price was 0 yuan, down 19.81 yuan or - 100.00% [3]. 3. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2511 contract was 2178 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan or 0.60%. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 1.30%. The basis was 102 yuan, down 43 yuan or - 29.66% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2480 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.24%. The basis was 80 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or - 6.98% [5]. 4. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 2937 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 3 yuan, unchanged [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2510 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2601 was 2405 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 105 yuan, unchanged [8]. 5. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5478 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or - 0.13%. The price of the 2605 contract was 5442 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or - 0.22% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were unchanged. The Nanning basis was 338 yuan, up 12 yuan or 3.68%; the Kunming basis was 368 yuan, up 12 yuan or 3.37% [10]. 6. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or - 0.96%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan or - 0.92% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14955 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.27%. The 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1550 yuan, up 90 yuan or 6.16% [11]. 7. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 11 contract was 3036 yuan/500KG, down 40 yuan or - 1.30%. The price of the 10 contract was 2940 yuan/500KG, down 41 yuan or - 1.38% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 3.47 yuan/jin, down 0.14 yuan or - 3.76%. The basis was 492 yuan/500KG, down 37 yuan or - 6.98% [14].

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of live pigs in the spot market are loose, and the price remains weak. Although demand has increased, the continuous increase is not obvious, and the supply pressure of slaughter is relatively greater. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts are mainly dragged down by the weak spot market [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 23rd, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell back, fluctuating downward, and closed in the negative at the end of the session. The highest was 12,840 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,655 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.48% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,354 lots to 249,995 lots [9]. - **Spot Market**: On the 23rd, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 12.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: In September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The utilization rate of the second - fattening pens remains high, the slaughter pressure is large, the slaughter progress at the end of the month accelerates, and the slaughter weight decreases slightly. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs before the Spring Festival may still maintain a slight growth trend [10]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the fattening cost is still low. Currently, the second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Although the weather has turned cooler, the continuous increase in demand is not obvious, the sales of white strips are slow, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On September 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 154,000 heads, an increase of 8,000 heads from the previous day, 48,000 heads week - on - week, and 129,000 heads month - on - month [10]. 2. Industry News - As of September 18th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 7.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 46 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 246.6 yuan/head, a decrease of 70.8 yuan/head week - on - week [11][13] 3. Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of September 18th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 358 yuan/head, a decrease of 36 yuan/head from the previous week [17]. - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: In the week of September 18th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.16 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.03 yuan/jin week - on - week [17]. - **Fattening Cost**: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 12.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.47 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 12.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous week [17]. - **Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate**: In the week of September 18th, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.77%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from the previous week and 2.22 percentage points year - on - year. The weekly operating rate of enterprises fluctuated in the range of 31.54 - 31.80 [17]. - **National Average Slaughter Weight of Live Pigs**: As of the week of September 18th, the national average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.45 kg, an increase of 0.13 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Spot prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Based on sow and piglet data, there may still be a slight increase in hog slaughter volume by December, and with ample supply, it's difficult for hog prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference exists, which may enhance farmers' willingness to increase weight. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if so, hog prices are expected to rebound at the end of the year. One could consider a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, this week's futures prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spreads fluctuated and adjusted. With the weakness of the spot market, the 11 - 01 contract showed a reverse spread trend [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and hog prices fluctuated weakly [13]. - **区域价差**: Regional price differences were relatively reasonable [15]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard price difference can strengthen after the weather turns cool, which may enhance the weight - increasing willingness of scattered farmers if it does [17]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [21]. - **养殖利润**: Self - breeding and self - raising still had profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening was in a slight loss state [23]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [25]. 3.3 Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of July was 40.42 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. Mysteel data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [27]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: This week, the price of culled sows showed a weak trend. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, indicating an increase in the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction [29]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (previous value: + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the volume of hogs to be slaughtered in February next year (calculated based on a 6 - month fattening period) [31]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [33]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises in July was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. In terms of frozen products, the market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on hog prices will change from positive to neutral - negative [35]. 3.5 Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic hog prices is relatively limited [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously under sufficient supply. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. One can consider conducting a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract at an appropriate time [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, the futures price fluctuated weakly this week. On September 12, 2025, the benchmark base difference of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton, compared with 745 yuan/ton on September 5 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spread fluctuated and adjusted [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price fluctuated weakly [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price difference was relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The spread between fat and standard pigs fluctuated weakly, which would increase the enthusiasm of farmers to reduce weight and sell pigs [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: The terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - performance of pork was average. The spread between fresh and frozen No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - performance of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit still existed, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of fertile sows was 40.42 million at the end of July, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. According to Yongyi Consulting, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month in August, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. According to My steel, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month in August, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market increased [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (the previous value was + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the number of slaughtered live pigs in February next year [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand situation of live pigs is loose, and the price remains weak. On the spot side, although terminal demand has increased with the start of schools and cooler weather, the supply pressure from hog sales is still relatively large. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak - demand season, and the supply - demand margin may improve, but they are mainly oscillating weakly due to the current large spot supply pressure [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Conditions**: On the 11th, the main 2511 live pig futures contract opened slightly higher and then oscillated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 13,370 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,285 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,574 lots to 197,717 lots. The national average price of foreign ternary pigs on the spot market was 13.33 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Analysis**: On the supply side, in September, the planned sales of sample breeding enterprises were 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high. On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly declined, and second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The terminal consumption of residents may increase, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the slaughter rate and volume have slightly increased. On September 11th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 148,000 heads, an increase of 400 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 heads [9]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - As of September 4th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising live pig was 98.7 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per live pig purchased as a piglet was - 112.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [10][12]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of September 4th was 425 yuan/head, a decrease of 19 yuan/head from the previous week [15]. - The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of September 4th was 0.19 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/jin. The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 13.42 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 13.69 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous week [15]. - The slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate in the week of September 5th was 31.27%, a week - on - week increase of 2 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.54 percentage points, with the weekly rate fluctuating between 30.18% and 31.75% [15]. - As of the week of September 4th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.23 kg, an increase of 0.4 kg or 0.31% from the previous week [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of the domestic pig market are expected to increase this week, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and rebound, maintaining a volatile pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals show that in September, as the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day approach, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week. The demand is boosted by the return of students to school and the approaching long - holiday, and the consumption of fresh pork is expected to increase. Overall, the market may see a situation of increasing supply and demand, with pig prices bottoming out and rebounding to maintain a volatile pattern. The market should pay attention to the monthly slaughter rhythm of group farms and the dynamic changes in the secondary fattening market [10]. - The basis: The national average spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is 255 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [10]. - Inventory: As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - The market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [10]. - Main positions: The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing [10]. - Expectation: The supply and demand of live pigs have recently begun to pick up. It is expected that the pig price will bottom out and rebound this week, maintaining a range - bound pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the United States and Canada have boosted market confidence. Affected by the off - season, as the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day approach, the slaughter of large pigs has increased, resulting in an increase in both supply and demand of live pigs. The spot price has returned to a volatile pattern in the short term, and the futures price has also shown a range - bound pattern [12]. - The recent high - temperature weather has led to a short - term decline in pork demand. Affected by the increase in supply, the spot price of live pigs has been fluctuating weakly. However, due to the gradual recovery of demand, the downward space may be limited [12]. - The domestic pig farming profit has remained at a low level, and the short - term profit has deteriorated. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has been relatively high in the short term. The increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price of live pigs may fluctuate strongly before the National Day, and the futures price will generally return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed in the future [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The domestic pig consumption has entered the peak season before the long - holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [13]. - Bearish factors: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the domestic live pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from August 22 to September 1, including the prices of the main 2511 contract, far - month 2601 contract, and some regional spot prices [14]. - It also presents various charts related to the fundamentals of live pigs, such as the basis and spread trends of live pig futures, the average prices of different specifications of live pigs in the spot market, and indicators on the supply side (including pig prices, piglet indicators, inventory at different levels, pork imports, fattening costs, etc.), the slaughter side (including prices, profits, etc.), and the demand side (including consumption trends, etc.) [15][17][23]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content