1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Spot prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Based on sow and piglet data, there may still be a slight increase in hog slaughter volume by December, and with ample supply, it's difficult for hog prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference exists, which may enhance farmers' willingness to increase weight. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if so, hog prices are expected to rebound at the end of the year. One could consider a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, this week's futures prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spreads fluctuated and adjusted. With the weakness of the spot market, the 11 - 01 contract showed a reverse spread trend [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and hog prices fluctuated weakly [13]. - **区域价差**: Regional price differences were relatively reasonable [15]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard price difference can strengthen after the weather turns cool, which may enhance the weight - increasing willingness of scattered farmers if it does [17]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [21]. - **养殖利润**: Self - breeding and self - raising still had profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening was in a slight loss state [23]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [25]. 3.3 Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of July was 40.42 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. Mysteel data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [27]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: This week, the price of culled sows showed a weak trend. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, indicating an increase in the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction [29]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (previous value: + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the volume of hogs to be slaughtered in February next year (calculated based on a 6 - month fattening period) [31]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [33]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises in July was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. In terms of frozen products, the market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on hog prices will change from positive to neutral - negative [35]. 3.5 Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic hog prices is relatively limited [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously under sufficient supply. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. One can consider conducting a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract at an appropriate time [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, the futures price fluctuated weakly this week. On September 12, 2025, the benchmark base difference of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton, compared with 745 yuan/ton on September 5 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spread fluctuated and adjusted [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price fluctuated weakly [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price difference was relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The spread between fat and standard pigs fluctuated weakly, which would increase the enthusiasm of farmers to reduce weight and sell pigs [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: The terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - performance of pork was average. The spread between fresh and frozen No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - performance of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit still existed, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of fertile sows was 40.42 million at the end of July, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. According to Yongyi Consulting, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month in August, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. According to My steel, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month in August, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market increased [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (the previous value was + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the number of slaughtered live pigs in February next year [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand situation of live pigs is loose, and the price remains weak. On the spot side, although terminal demand has increased with the start of schools and cooler weather, the supply pressure from hog sales is still relatively large. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak - demand season, and the supply - demand margin may improve, but they are mainly oscillating weakly due to the current large spot supply pressure [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Conditions**: On the 11th, the main 2511 live pig futures contract opened slightly higher and then oscillated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 13,370 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,285 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,574 lots to 197,717 lots. The national average price of foreign ternary pigs on the spot market was 13.33 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Analysis**: On the supply side, in September, the planned sales of sample breeding enterprises were 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high. On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly declined, and second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The terminal consumption of residents may increase, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the slaughter rate and volume have slightly increased. On September 11th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 148,000 heads, an increase of 400 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 heads [9]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - As of September 4th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising live pig was 98.7 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per live pig purchased as a piglet was - 112.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [10][12]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of September 4th was 425 yuan/head, a decrease of 19 yuan/head from the previous week [15]. - The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of September 4th was 0.19 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/jin. The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 13.42 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 13.69 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous week [15]. - The slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate in the week of September 5th was 31.27%, a week - on - week increase of 2 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.54 percentage points, with the weekly rate fluctuating between 30.18% and 31.75% [15]. - As of the week of September 4th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.23 kg, an increase of 0.4 kg or 0.31% from the previous week [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of the domestic pig market are expected to increase this week, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and rebound, maintaining a volatile pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals show that in September, as the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day approach, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week. The demand is boosted by the return of students to school and the approaching long - holiday, and the consumption of fresh pork is expected to increase. Overall, the market may see a situation of increasing supply and demand, with pig prices bottoming out and rebounding to maintain a volatile pattern. The market should pay attention to the monthly slaughter rhythm of group farms and the dynamic changes in the secondary fattening market [10]. - The basis: The national average spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is 255 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [10]. - Inventory: As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - The market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [10]. - Main positions: The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing [10]. - Expectation: The supply and demand of live pigs have recently begun to pick up. It is expected that the pig price will bottom out and rebound this week, maintaining a range - bound pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the United States and Canada have boosted market confidence. Affected by the off - season, as the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day approach, the slaughter of large pigs has increased, resulting in an increase in both supply and demand of live pigs. The spot price has returned to a volatile pattern in the short term, and the futures price has also shown a range - bound pattern [12]. - The recent high - temperature weather has led to a short - term decline in pork demand. Affected by the increase in supply, the spot price of live pigs has been fluctuating weakly. However, due to the gradual recovery of demand, the downward space may be limited [12]. - The domestic pig farming profit has remained at a low level, and the short - term profit has deteriorated. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has been relatively high in the short term. The increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price of live pigs may fluctuate strongly before the National Day, and the futures price will generally return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed in the future [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The domestic pig consumption has entered the peak season before the long - holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [13]. - Bearish factors: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the domestic live pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from August 22 to September 1, including the prices of the main 2511 contract, far - month 2601 contract, and some regional spot prices [14]. - It also presents various charts related to the fundamentals of live pigs, such as the basis and spread trends of live pig futures, the average prices of different specifications of live pigs in the spot market, and indicators on the supply side (including pig prices, piglet indicators, inventory at different levels, pork imports, fattening costs, etc.), the slaughter side (including prices, profits, etc.), and the demand side (including consumption trends, etc.) [15][17][23]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content

Report Overview - Report Date: September 1, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Daily Report on the Pig Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 1, 2025, the national daily pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises decreased by 15.06% compared to Friday, and the 2511 pig contract rose 0.33% on Monday [2] - Due to the implementation of the transfer policy on September 1st and the reduction at the beginning of the month, the short - term supply pressure has eased, but the medium - term supply pressure remains as September corresponds to the peak of the previous increasing cycle of fertile sows [2] - The price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs continues to widen, providing conditions for later pressure on inventory and secondary fattening [2] - The pig - grain ratio has triggered a third - level warning, and the state has launched a combination of "new purchases for storage" and "rotational purchases for storage" to stabilize the market [2] - With sufficient pig supply, increased demand from schools after the start of the semester, and the continuous recovery of the slaughterhouse's operating rate [2] - In general, the short - term supply pressure still exists, suppressing pig prices, but the short - term slaughter rhythm may slow down, and with the recovery of the operating rate and the storage purchase policy, the short - term decline space is expected to be limited, and the market will operate weakly with fluctuations. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for pigs is 13,625 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 70 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 75,464 lots, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,828 lots [2] - The number of warehouse receipts for pigs is 430 lots, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,798 lots, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,278 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 14,100 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 400 yuan/ton; in Siping, Jilin is 13,600 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 100 yuan/ton; in Yunfu, Guangdong is 14,500 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 400 yuan/ton [2] - The main basis for pigs is 475 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 330 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, with an increase of 7160,000 heads; the inventory of fertile sows is 4,0420,000 heads, with a decrease of 10,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI for the current month is 0%, with a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,050 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 10 yuan/ton; the spot price of corn is 2,364.12 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.59 yuan/ton [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 908.84, with a ring - to - ring increase of 0.95 [2] - The monthly output of feed is 28,273,000 tons, with a decrease of 1,104,000 tons [2] - The price of binary fertile sows is 1,625 yuan/head, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 2 yuan/head [2] - The breeding profit from purchasing piglets is - 148.41 yuan/head, with a ring - to - ring increase of 3.39 yuan/head; the breeding profit from self - breeding and self - raising pigs is 32.24 yuan/head, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 1.71 yuan/head [2] - The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, with no change; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 31,660,000 heads, with an increase of 1,600,000 heads [2] - The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 450.41 billion yuan, with a decrease of 20.35 billion yuan [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Pig Daily Report - August 26, 2025" [2] - Report type: Agricultural product research report by the Commodity Research Institute [1][5][8] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The supply pressure of the pig market continues to increase, and prices are gradually falling. However, due to the decline in the存栏 of ordinary farmers, the overall supply change is relatively limited, and the deep - fall space is also limited [4][6] - The pig futures market has seen an increase in the decline, and the short - term stabilization effect is limited. The near - month contract has more obvious downward pressure, but the further decline power is also general. The far - month contract is expected to move in a low - level oscillation with limited deep - fall space [6] Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Prices - Today, the average spot price of pigs is 13.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in most regions have declined [4] Futures Prices - Futures prices of all contracts have decreased. For example, LH01 decreased by 40 to 14,200, and LH09 decreased by 130 to 13,665 [4] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices decreased from 363 to 347, and sow prices decreased from 1612 to 1599 [4] Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising increased by 5.10 to 33.95, and the profit of purchasing piglets increased by 5.25 to - 151.80 [4] Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume increased by 135 to 140,338 [4] Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 spread increased by 125 to 505, LH9 - 1 spread decreased by 90 to - 535, etc. [4] Size Pig Spreads - The spreads between different sizes of pigs have all increased [4] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long on far - month contracts at low prices [7] - Arbitrage: LH91 reverse arbitrage [7] - Options: Sell far - month put options [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of pigs is expected to increase significantly after September, and the price may experience a phased rebound but with limited upside potential. In the long - term, prices will continue to face pressure. For eggs, short - term supply is abundant, restricting price increases, while long - term high supply may be difficult to reverse. Corn supply is sufficient in the short - term, and the price may decline due to concentrated new - crop supply and lower costs [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - As of August 22, the national spot price of pigs was 13.67 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.61 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg. The futures price of live pigs 2511 was 13,840 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton from last week. The 11 - contract basis was - 230 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [4][15]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply: The inventory of breeding sows is sufficient, and production performance has improved. The supply of pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August has increased. The proportion of small and large pigs in weekly slaughter has increased, and the average slaughter weight has risen for two consecutive weeks. - Demand: Weekly slaughter capacity and volume have slightly increased, but the fresh - meat sales rate has fluctuated narrowly, and the frozen - meat inventory rate has slightly increased. The demand is expected to increase at the end of August, but the profit of slaughtering enterprises is still in the red, limiting the increase in demand. - Cost: The price of piglets has decreased, the price of binary breeding sows has remained flat, the self - breeding and self - raising profit has turned negative, and the cost of fattening pigs has slightly increased [4]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows increased from May to November 2024, decreased slightly from December 2024 to January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance of sows has reached the highest level in the past four years, and the number of newborn piglets has increased [20]. 3.1.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Recommendations - The state's pork purchase and storage mainly boost market sentiment. The supply pressure will be alleviated, and consumption is expected to improve, which may drive a phased price rebound, but the rebound height is limited. In the long - term, the supply will increase before May next year, and prices will continue to face pressure. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short - sell on the 11 and 01 contracts, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4]. 3.2 Eggs 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - As of August 22, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.11 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin. The futures price of the main 2510 contract was 3033 yuan/500 kg, down 149 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 393 yuan/500 kg, up 169 yuan/500 kg [6][66]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply: The number of newly - laid hens in August remains high. Although the culling of old hens has accelerated, the supply of cold - storage eggs has supplemented the market, and the overall supply is still abundant. The inventory of laying hens in July reached the highest level in the same period in history. - Demand: The current low egg price has stimulated downstream procurement, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. However, the inventory in each link has increased [6]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The number of newly - laid hens from September to November 2025 is expected to be large due to high replenishment from May to July 2025. The enthusiasm for replenishing chicks has declined, and the supply growth may slow down [89]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Recommendations - The egg price may stop falling and rebound, but the high supply in the short - term will limit the increase. If the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season fails again, the culling may increase, alleviating the supply pressure in the distant months. It is recommended to short - sell on the 10 contract after the price rebounds or hold put options. If the culling process accelerates, there may be opportunities to go long on the 12 and 01 contracts [6]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Weekly Market Review - As of August 22, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of the main 2511 contract was 2175 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 115 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [7][95]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply: The inventory of traders is low, but the new spring corn in North China has been launched, and the policy - related grain rotation has supplemented the supply. The import of corn in July decreased significantly. - Demand: The demand for feed has increased, but the high price difference between corn and wheat has squeezed the feed demand for corn. The deep - processing industry is still in the red, and the start - up rate is low [7]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - The 2025/2026 corn planting is stable, and the climate suitability is very high. The planting cost has decreased [114]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Recommendations - The supply of corn is sufficient in the short - term, and the price may be under pressure due to the concentrated supply of new crops and lower costs. It is recommended to short - sell on the 11 contract after the price rebounds or hold the 11 - 1 reverse spread [7].

Report Overview - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Egg Weekly Report 2025 - 8 - 18 [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - Supply: Bearish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Neutral [3] - Strategy: Bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of culled chickens from sample breeding enterprises continued to decline, the culling age fluctuated slightly, the price difference between large and small eggs oscillated at a high level, and the price of chicks continued to drop [3] - The high price difference between large and small eggs and the relatively strong price of culled chickens indicate more new additions and fewer culls, which may suppress the price elasticity in the traditional consumption peak season [3] - This year, the capacity reduction is insufficient, the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is premature, and the egg - laying rate decline due to high temperature is getting smaller, so the rebound momentum in the peak season is limited [3] - This week, the sales volume in the main sales areas and the shipping volume in the main production areas decreased slightly, and the inventory in the circulation and production links also decreased slightly [3] - Traders are afraid of price drops, purchase cautiously, and the overall sales in the production areas are a bit slow [3] - The breeding profit has rebounded slightly and is near the break - even point, and the egg - feed ratio is at the lowest level in the same period of the past 4 years [3] - The egg futures contracts in the delivery month are slightly at a discount, while the other contracts are slightly at a premium [3] - The price difference between the near and far - term egg futures has dropped significantly and is at a moderately high level [3] - Due to the change of the main contract of egg futures, the net short position of institutions in September decreased, while that in October increased [3] - Under the background of high inventory, the near - term supply pressure is large, and the far - term situation will gradually improve with the strengthening of capacity reduction expectations [3] - Before the capacity is cleared due to breeding losses, the pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength of egg futures is expected to continue, and it is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of egg 9 - 1 [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - Sub - sections include spot price (comparison between main production area price and main sales area price), egg basis (basis of each egg futures contract), egg price difference (price difference of each egg futures contract), and futures institutional net position (long - to - short ratio of institutional positions in September and October egg futures contracts) [4][7][10][13] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects such as egg - laying hen inventory and its structure, culling situation (culled chicken price and average culling age), replenishment situation (price of commercial egg - laying chicks and hatching egg utilization rate), and size - code situation (prices of large and small eggs and seasonal chart of price difference) [16][18][20][23] Demand Analysis - Includes发货量&销量 (sales volume in main sales areas and shipping volume in main production areas), inventory (production - link inventory and circulation - link inventory), and substitutes (seasonal charts of egg - to - pork price ratio and egg - to - vegetable price ratio) [26][28][31] Profit Analysis - Comprises breeding profit (current profit vs. expected profit and comprehensive egg - laying hen breeding profit) and egg - feed ratio (egg - feed ratio and its break - even point, and seasonal chart of egg - feed ratio) [34][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is currently characterized by high overall production capacity, with a slowdown in recent new replenishment. The supply - side pressure is gradually weakening, while the demand has improved but the marginal support is weakening, requiring new demand from tourism and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. - The cost of feed has slightly declined, with the current feed cost around 2.5 yuan per catty and the comprehensive breeding cost around 2.8 yuan per catty. Egg prices have returned above the feed breeding cost seasonally, and profits have improved. - The spot market will still receive seasonal demand support after a short - term release of the decline sentiment, but the futures premium is obvious, and it is difficult to follow the spot rebound. As the delivery month approaches, the main 09 contract may decline to repair the basis, and attention should be paid to reverse spread opportunities. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Review - Last week, egg futures maintained a weak oscillation, and the overall weakness remained unchanged. The biggest contradiction in the market is the large basis, with obvious selling pressure and weak willingness to take delivery. [6] Spot Review - Last week, egg spot prices maintained a weak adjustment and stabilized over the weekend. The sales areas started to sell at low prices, and the market began to accept the goods. After this round of adjustment, the spot prices will be supported by the start of school for students and Mid - Autumn Festival deep - processing stocking. Attention should be paid to the rebound height. [13] Supply - Newly - added capacity: From August to November 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from April to July 2025, and the newly - added capacity will decline significantly. - Elimination capacity: From August to November 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from March to June 2024. The data shows a high elimination volume, but the current data indicates obvious delayed elimination. - Laying hen inventory: The inventory data continues to increase slightly, but it will start to decrease in September. The newly - added capacity is stable with a slight decline, and the elimination is relatively slow. The overall supply pressure still exists. [16] Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens is 5.51 yuan per catty (- 0.27). The elimination volume has significantly decreased. The peak season and a slight price rebound limit the enthusiasm for elimination. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining unchanged, and the overall age has reached the normal range, but the elimination of backward production capacity is not ideal. [19] Seasonal Factors - It is the seasonal peak season. On the production area side, the inventory pressure in the production areas has increased, high temperatures have reduced the laying rate and increased costs. On the consumption side, the arrival of the tourism peak season combined with deep - processing has improved the overall demand. [21] Cost & Profit - Cost side: Corn prices are running at a high level, and soybean meal prices have steadily declined. The overall cost remains volatile. The current feed cost is around 2.5 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is around 2.8 yuan per catty. - Breeding profit: Recently, egg prices have risen, and the spot price has returned above the feed cost. However, the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in a loss, showing a seasonal bottom - rebounding trend. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback on backward production capacity. [27] Capital and Market - Capital has increased at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Bears believe that the production capacity is high, there is seasonal suppression, and the futures premium over the spot still has room to decline. Bulls believe that the valuation is low, and the seasonality is about to turn from weak to strong, making it valuable to go long. Currently, the reality is stronger than expectations, with obvious futures premium over the spot and obvious selling pressure in the market, waiting for the cycle conversion. [30] Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis is negative, and the overall futures are at a premium. The current basis is running at a low level, waiting for the basis to strengthen with the arrival of the peak season, which is more likely to be achieved through a decline in futures prices. - Spread: It shows that supply exceeds demand. The near - month contracts in the market are constantly repairing the basis through price declines, and the far - month contracts face the expectation of reduced production capacity, with a focus on reverse spread operations. [32][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure from increased production, and Dalian palm oil futures are expected to consolidate around 9,000 yuan. - Crude oil pressure and bearish CBOT soybeans affect vegetable oil prices. Domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to decrease in the second half of the month due to improved demand [1]. Meal Industry - US soybeans are expected to find strong support around 970 - 980 cents, and the downside space for domestic soybean meal is limited. Long positions in the 2601 contract can be held, but the strength of oils may limit the rise of meal [3]. Pig Industry - Spot pig prices are slightly down but may bottom - out. The short - term outlook is not optimistic, and the 09 contract faces pressure. The 01 contract is affected by policies, and caution is needed regarding hedging funds [6]. Corn Industry - The corn market is weak in the short - term, with prices fluctuating. New - season corn may face supply pressure, and the market valuation may decline [8]. Sugar Industry - International raw sugar prices are expected to have difficulty breaking previous lows but are generally bearish. The domestic sugar market has weak demand, and a bearish trend is expected [13]. Cotton Industry - The supply - side pressure of cotton has marginally eased, but the downstream industry is still weak. Consider reducing positions in the 09 contract and holding short positions in far - month contracts [14]. Egg Industry - Egg supply is expected to increase in August, while demand will enter the peak season. However, due to large supply pressure, a bearish trading strategy is recommended [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8,580 yuan, up 1.18%. The Y2509 futures price is 8,406 yuan, up 0.74%. The basis is 136 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8,900 yuan, down 0.56%. The P2509 futures price is 9,064 yuan, down 1.04%. The basis is - 164 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 9,700 yuan, up 0.21%. The O1509 futures price is 9,562 yuan, down 0.55%. The basis is 138 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,920 yuan, down 0.68%. The M2509 futures price is 3,026 yuan, up 0.10%. The basis is - 106 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,690 yuan, up 1.89%. The RM2509 futures price is 2,745 yuan, up 0.77%. The basis is - 55 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Harbin is 3,960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4,118 yuan, up 0.05%. The basis is - 158 yuan, and the inventory is down 0.42% [3]. Pig Industry - Spot prices in various regions have slightly declined. The sample point slaughter volume decreased by 0.51%, the white - strip price decreased by 0.83%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 29.46% [6]. Corn Industry - The corn 2509 futures price is 2,259 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis is 61 yuan, down 14.08%. The 9 - 1 spread is 10 yuan, up 18.18% [8]. - The corn starch 2509 futures price is 2,662 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis is 48 yuan, down 14.29% [8]. Sugar Industry - The sugar 2601 futures price is 5,628 yuan, down 0.18%. The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.04 cents/pound, down 0.31%. The basis in Nanning is 317 yuan, down 4.80% [13]. - National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 23.07%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [13]. Cotton Industry - The cotton 2509 futures price is 13,690 yuan, up 0.26%. The ICE US cotton主力 is 66.92 cents/pound, down 0.36%. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract is 1,393 yuan, down 2.31% [14]. - Commercial inventory decreased by 10.2%, industrial inventory decreased by 2.3%, and imports decreased by 25% [14]. Egg Industry - The egg 09 contract is 3,378 yuan/500KG, up 1.44%. The egg 10 contract is 3,285 yuan/500KG, up 1.01%. The basis is - 371 yuan/500KG, down 24.51% [17]. - The estimated laying - hen inventory in August is 1.363 billion, a 0.52% increase [17].