12月14日，中信证券最新研报指出，从此次中央经济工作会议内容来看，做大内循环仍是重心，定位和 去年相似。实际上，明年外需继续超预期的难度在加大，但内需可期待的因素在增多。从这些角度来 看，海外敞口品种业绩兑现力强，但估值继续提升难度大；内需敞口品种景气度一般，但一旦超预期修 复，估值弹性不小。配置上要寻求交集，即海外敞口为基底、内需积极变化也会产生催化的品种。从配 置角度，最大的交集就是我们此前一直提示的资源与传统制造业领域中国在全球有份额优势的行业对应 的龙头企业，讲出"供应在内反内卷，需求在外出利润"的投资逻辑，不断提升在全球的定价权，重点关 注的行业包括有色、化工和新能源等，虽然能见度高的利基市场在海外，但如果内需有积极变化，这些 品种的弹性不小。 ...

中信证券研报指出，从此次中央经济工作会议内容来看，做大内循环仍是重心，定位和去年相似。实际 上，明年外需继续超预期的难度在加大，但内需可期待的因素在增多。从这些角度来看，海外敞口品种 业绩兑现力强，但估值继续提升难度大；内需敞口品种景气度一般，但一旦超预期修复，估值弹性不 小。配置上要寻求交集，即海外敞口为基底、内需积极变化也会产生催化的品种。从配置角度，最大的 交集就是我们此前一直提示的资源与传统制造业领域中国在全球有份额优势的行业对应的龙头企业，讲 出"供应在内反内卷，需求在外出利润"的投资逻辑，不断提升在全球的定价权，重点关注的行业包括有 色、化工和新能源等，虽然能见度高的利基市场在海外，但如果内需有积极变化，这些品种的弹性不 小。 ...

Economic Goals and Strategies - The 2026 economic work will maintain high target settings to ensure sustainable high-quality development, balancing "hard power" and "soft power" while optimizing resource utilization[3][19] - The growth target for 2026 is expected to remain high, reflecting the resilience of economic growth and guiding positive societal expectations[4][19] Hard and Soft Power Development - The enhancement of national comprehensive strength requires a balance between economic, technological, and defense "hard power" and cultural, institutional, and diplomatic "soft power"[5][20] - Policies supporting the development of "soft power" are anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on quality cultural products and services[5][20] Supply-Side Reforms and Employment - The new round of supply-side reforms will focus on optimizing supply and utilizing existing capacity, addressing "overcapacity" as a resource to be developed[7][24] - Emphasis on "stabilizing employment" as a priority, with policies aimed at creating new job opportunities and addressing structural unemployment among youth[9][29] Policy Implementation and Coordination - Effective policy implementation is crucial, requiring sustained efforts over time to ensure that policies benefit individuals and businesses[10][30] - The focus on policy synergy emphasizes the need for new policies to align with existing ones, avoiding conflicts and ensuring comprehensive implementation[11][31] Domestic Market Strengthening - The domestic market must not only be large but also resilient, with a focus on enhancing internal demand and ensuring supply chain security[12][35] - Building a strong domestic market involves diversifying supply and fostering innovation to make consumption a leading force in domestic demand growth[12][35] Social Welfare and Living Standards - Continuous improvement of living standards is essential, with a focus on social security mechanisms to provide a safety net for citizens[13][36] - The government aims to enhance overall living quality while addressing specific local needs through grassroots initiatives[13][36] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include fiscal and monetary policies falling short of expectations, unexpected downturns in the real estate market, and complex external environments[14][37][38]

Core Viewpoint - The "internal circulation" strategy aims to boost domestic demand to drive economic growth, but current consumer spending is declining, indicating challenges in achieving this goal [3][10]. Group 1: Economic Context - The concept of "internal circulation" is introduced as a response to external pressures in international trade and supply chains, emphasizing the need for a domestic market-driven economy [3]. - In 2023, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached approximately 47.12 trillion yuan, but the growth rate is low, with significant disparities across different sectors [4]. - Essential goods like food and daily necessities are still seeing growth, while non-essential and luxury goods are experiencing slow or negative growth [4][6]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more rational, reducing unnecessary spending and focusing on basic needs, leading to a passive consumption downgrade [4][6]. - Personal savings have increased significantly in 2023, indicating a tendency to save rather than spend due to uncertainty about future income and expenses [4]. - Young consumers are particularly affected by high living costs, leading them to prioritize saving over spending [6]. Group 3: Structural Challenges - The decline in consumer purchasing power is a significant barrier to the "internal circulation" strategy, as income growth is not keeping pace with rising expenses [7][10]. - Companies are facing difficulties, which may lead to price increases that further suppress consumer spending [7]. - The transition to an internal circulation economy requires breaking existing patterns, which may result in job losses and income reductions, further inhibiting consumption [7][10]. Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - To effectively stimulate internal circulation, it is essential to increase residents' income, reduce major expenditure pressures, and enhance consumer confidence [10]. - Optimizing consumption structure and developing new consumption areas, such as healthcare and education, could create new demand [10][11]. - The transition to an internal circulation economy is a long-term process that requires collective efforts from consumers, businesses, and the government [11][12].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent phase agreement between China and the U.S. to "pause" certain tariffs, indicating a temporary ceasefire in trade tensions, but warns against viewing this as a resolution to the broader U.S.-China relationship [1] - It highlights a shift in U.S. trade policy from merely correcting trade deficits to a more complex strategy aimed at long-term containment of China's industrial upgrades, influenced by domestic inflation and manufacturing costs [1][4] - The article emphasizes the need for A-share investors to adapt to a new valuation logic that prioritizes "safety and resilience" over "efficiency and growth" in the context of ongoing tariff negotiations [1][8] Macro Mechanism - The U.S. trade policy has evolved into a bipartisan consensus characterized by a systematic approach to competition, moving from a focus on trade deficits to a strategy aimed at containing China's industrial advancements [3] - The recent tariff proposals, including a 34% punitive tariff on China, were initially perceived as a threat to globalization, but the subsequent pause indicates a recognition of the high costs associated with unilateral tariffs [2][4] Industry Impact - The normalization of tariff negotiations is expected to fundamentally reshape the valuation logic of A-share industries, with a shift towards valuing companies based on their ability to withstand external shocks and maintain supply chain resilience [8] - The technology sector is experiencing a revaluation towards "self-sufficiency," as companies seek to mitigate risks associated with U.S. trade policies by increasing domestic production capabilities [9] - Advanced manufacturing is transitioning from a "product export" model to a "capacity export" model, with companies establishing overseas production bases to navigate tariff barriers and geopolitical risks [10] Micro Strategies - Companies are shifting from an "efficiency-first" approach to a "resilience-first" strategy, necessitating increased inventory and diversified supply chains to mitigate risks from trade tensions [13] - There is a growing emphasis on "hardcore" innovation and reducing reliance on U.S. technology, with firms investing in foundational research and development to enhance their competitive edge [14] Long-term Investment Strategy - The article suggests that investors should focus on three categories of assets that are likely to thrive amid ongoing trade tensions: technology leaders achieving domestic breakthroughs, manufacturers with global production capabilities, and consumer brands benefiting from domestic market growth [16]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货 2026 年投资策略报告 稳经济稳预期 股债双震荡 金融 2025 年 11 月 23 日 主要结论 1、2025 年，国内经济恢复速度逐渐减慢，房地产拖累幅度有所减小。国内主要 经济消费方面，居民就业不平衡-规模性返乡-居民收入预期降低-消费增速低迷不振 循环。投资方面，房地产持续下滑-地方财政收入减少-项目投资与基础建设缺乏力 度-经济恢复缓慢，经济向新质生产力提升，但是新质生产力产生的就业机构与传统 行业产生的就业结构并不一致，经济恢复发展的同时，传统行业带来的就业冲击无 法通过新质生产力经济发展来消耗。2024 年 9 月中国政策逻辑发生转变，开始大力 度刺激经济的货币财政政策，货币方面，大力度降息、下调存量房贷利率等，财政 政策提出化解地方政府隐性债务。2025 年中国经济政策方向转向新质生产力，通过 经济转型升级的方式，进一步提升经济质量。外部方面，特朗普上台之后对打关税 战，对全球贸易形成阻碍，即便中美暂时缓和，特朗普的关税整体上影响全球贸易。 国际局部国家地缘政治或无法完成和平解决。2026 年国内经济政策将会更加注重内 循环，居民、私人企业资产负债表修复 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yum China is signaling positive long-term growth amidst a complex environment, with a strategic upgrade to "RGM 3.0" focusing on resilience, growth, and competitive advantage [1][12] Group 1: Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes a dual-driven strategy of "innovation + efficiency" to enhance collaboration among stores, regions, and brands [1] - The RGM strategy has led to high-quality and steady growth since its initiation in 2021, with positive same-store sales and improved profit margins despite market challenges [1] - Management expresses strong confidence in achieving rapid growth and efficiency improvements over the next three years, with ambitious store expansion and sales growth targets [1] Group 2: Financial Goals and Shareholder Returns - Yum China plans to return approximately 100% of free cash flow to shareholders starting in 2027, with expected annual returns between $900 million and over $1 billion from 2027 to 2028 [2] - The company aims for system sales to achieve mid to high single-digit compound growth and operating profit to achieve high single-digit compound growth from 2026 to 2028 [1] Group 3: Brand and Product Expansion - The growth model is based on a "multi-brand, multi-product, multi-module" approach, enhancing user coverage and consumption scenarios [3] - KFC remains the core brand, with significant single product sales exceeding 4 billion yuan annually, supporting new business expansions [3] - The company plans to expand KFC stores to 17,000 by 2028 and achieve over 10 billion yuan in operating profit [3] Group 4: Operational Efficiency and Innovation - Pizza Hut has accelerated growth with a focus on value positioning, achieving a 17% increase in same-store transaction volume for three consecutive quarters [4] - The company is implementing a simplified operational model and product innovations to penetrate deeper into the market [4] - Lavazza Coffee is also expanding rapidly, with plans to reach 1,000 stores and $60 million in retail sales by 2029 [4] Group 5: Supply Chain and Technology - The company’s supply chain, digital technology, and talent development are crucial for supporting business growth and profitability [6][7] - Yum China is transitioning to an AI-driven operational system, enhancing efficiency in various operational aspects [6] - The company is expanding its supplier base and implementing direct procurement strategies to maintain cost advantages [6] Group 6: Market Potential and Industry Outlook - The Chinese restaurant market has significant growth potential, with a current chain penetration rate of about 20%, compared to over 50% in mature markets [12] - The company aims to increase its consumer service coverage from one-third to approximately half by 2028 [12] - The restaurant industry is entering a mild recovery phase, supported by policy incentives and improving consumer sentiment [8][11]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant decline in consumer spending in China, driven by stagnant income growth, high debt levels, and increasing living costs, leading to a cautious consumer sentiment [1][3][7] Economic Indicators - In the first half of 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by only 3.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Major consumer sectors such as automobiles and home appliances experienced a slowdown, with automobile sales growing by just 1.8%, down 3.7 percentage points from the previous year, and home appliance sales declining by 2.5%, widening by 1.3 percentage points [1] - The consumer confidence index for Q2 2025 was reported at 95.3, below the neutral line of 100, marking a five-year low [5] Consumer Behavior - A survey indicated that 65% of respondents plan to reduce non-essential spending in the next six months, and 83% intend to postpone large purchases [1] - The actual growth rate of per capita disposable income for urban residents was only 2.8% in the first half of 2025, down from 5.7% in 2019, while the unemployment rate remained around 5.3% [3] Debt and Financial Pressure - The household leverage ratio reached 63.4% in Q1 2025, with some cities reporting debt-to-income ratios exceeding 3:1, indicating significant financial strain on families [3][4] - Rising costs in healthcare and education are further squeezing household budgets, with healthcare spending increasing by 8.6% year-on-year [4] Impact on Industries - The sluggish consumer spending is adversely affecting sectors such as retail, dining, and tourism, with restaurant revenues growing by only 2.5% year-on-year, significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels [7] - The vacancy rate for retail spaces in some second and third-tier cities has reached as high as 30%, indicating a challenging environment for brick-and-mortar businesses [7] Future Outlook - The article suggests that merely calling for increased domestic demand will not suffice; substantial improvements in income levels and distribution are necessary to stimulate consumer spending [8] - Long-term economic adjustments and reforms are essential to enhance consumer confidence and spending capacity, with the potential for improvement as urbanization and income distribution reforms take effect [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected global impact of U.S. tariffs, which were initially aimed at China but ended up affecting many countries, leading to a compromise with China while other nations faced higher tariffs [2][3]. Economic Impact - China's economic dependence on the U.S. has significantly decreased since 2016, with a shift towards the Belt and Road Initiative, making U.S. tariffs less impactful [6]. - The domestic consumption market in China, with a population of 1.4 billion, has become a major economic driver, posing a risk to the U.S. if it continues its hardline stance [6]. Industrial Development - China has upgraded its industrial capabilities, exporting high-tech products that the U.S. cannot easily replace, which has led to self-inflicted damage from U.S. tariffs [8]. - China holds a dominant position in critical sectors like rare earths and renewable energy, increasing U.S. reliance on Chinese exports [8]. Military Strength - China's military capabilities are reportedly on par with or surpassing those of the U.S., particularly in advanced military technologies [11]. - The presence of U.S. military forces in allied countries deters those nations from taking a strong stance against the U.S., while China’s military strength allows it to confront the U.S. more confidently [9][10].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of "investment in people" as a strategic approach to drive economic transformation and enhance human capital, which is crucial for sustainable development in China [1][2][4] - "Investment in people" is seen as a key factor in shifting the global industrial competition from capital-intensive to talent-intensive, highlighting the need for a comprehensive human resource development system [1][2] - The strategy includes reforming education systems to focus on innovation, integrating higher education with research, and aligning vocational education with industry needs to cultivate high-quality talent [2][3] Group 2 - "Investment in people" is also critical for stimulating consumer demand and activating the internal market, as it leads to the creation of new consumption scenarios and products [2][3] - To enhance residents' consumption capacity, a systematic policy approach is required, focusing on employment promotion, income increase, and stabilizing expectations [3] - The need for a long-term mechanism to ensure stable and sustainable investment in public services and social welfare is highlighted, with an emphasis on optimizing fiscal expenditure towards basic needs [4]