恒生科技指数延续下跌，跌幅扩大至1.22%，现报5294.94点。 华泰证券研报指出，港股上周先扬后抑。一方面，以全球"再通胀"交易与AI国产应用的升级为催化，有色等资源品、国产算力链与部分软件迎来反弹。另一 方面，AI格局在上市和非上市企业间的变化以及电商巨头内卷加剧的担忧压制权重股的表现。当前市场波动依然较高，本周适逢春节假期，影响市场的主 要因素或来自美股、春节期间消费、AI进展等。美股短期内或延续AI主线分化和高低切特征，对市场风偏影响中性；但国内消费高频数据和AI模型等已有 新进展。综合来看，建议均衡配置，短期重点关注直接受益于AI进展的存储等半导体硬件、特色消费α以及电气设备（新增）。 港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 大型科技股中，阿里巴巴-W跌2.7%，腾讯控股跌0.28%，京东集团-SW跌2.07%，小米集团-W跌3.09%，网易-S涨0.7%，美团-W跌1.77%，快手-W跌2.19%， 哔哩哔哩-W跌1.75%。 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.25% at 26,501.2 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.19% to 5,350.25 points, and the National Enterprises Index decreased by 0.08% to 9,025.6 points [1] - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Alibaba down 1.8%, Tencent down 0.38%, and JD.com down 0.85%. However, Netease saw an increase of 1.83% [3][4] Industry Insights - Huatai Securities reported that the Hong Kong market experienced fluctuations last week, driven by global "reflation" trades and upgrades in AI domestic applications, leading to rebounds in resource products and certain software sectors. However, concerns over the intensifying competition among e-commerce giants suppressed the performance of heavyweight stocks [3] - The market remains volatile, with key factors influencing it being US stock performance, consumer activity during the Spring Festival, and advancements in AI technology [3] Regulatory News - The State Administration for Market Regulation held discussions with major platform companies including Alibaba, Douyin, Baidu, Tencent, JD.com, Meituan, and Taobao, emphasizing compliance with various laws and regulations to enhance promotional practices [5] Company Developments - Qunhe Technology received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for overseas issuance and listing, planning to issue up to approximately 312 million shares in Hong Kong, marking a significant step for the company [6] - China Merchants Energy signed shipbuilding contracts for one ethylene ship and eighteen oil tankers, totaling RMB 7.882 billion [7] - China Shenhua reported coal sales of 33.2 million tons in January, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, and total electricity sales of 20.96 billion kWh, up 34.4% year-on-year [7] - China Southern Airlines saw a 1.1% decrease in passenger capacity and a 2.86% decline in passenger turnover in January, with a seat load factor of 83.26%, down 1.51 percentage points year-on-year [7] - China Eastern Airlines reported a 3.54% decrease in passenger capacity and a 1.03% decline in passenger turnover, with a seat load factor of 85.01%, up 2.16 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Huizhong Network completed the acquisition of a 25% stake in Jintongling, advancing its "production and sales integration" strategy [7] Performance Metrics - China General Nuclear Power completed 1,647.8 GWh of electricity generation in January, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [8] - R&F Properties reported a contract sales revenue of approximately RMB 720 million in January, down 8.05% year-on-year [9] - Hopson Development Group recorded a contract sales amount of approximately RMB 591 million in January, a year-on-year increase of 24.95% [10] - Kaisa Group reported contract sales of RMB 325 million in January, down 35.3% year-on-year [11] - Jianye Real Estate reported contract sales of RMB 398 million in January, a year-on-year decrease of 31.1% [12] - Shanghai Fudan projected total revenue of approximately RMB 3.982 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.92%, but a net profit decrease of 59.42% [12] - Ruian Real Estate issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of between RMB 1.7 billion and 1.8 billion for the 2025 fiscal year [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes a positive outlook for various asset classes in 2025, with a bull market observed in global stock indices, industrial and precious metals, and U.S. Treasuries despite some volatility due to trade disputes [4] - The bull market is supported by several fundamental factors, including the fading of the "U.S. exception" narrative, ongoing de-dollarization, and a favorable economic environment characterized by soft landing and declining inflation [4] - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI advancements, is expected to continue providing excess returns, benefiting growth sectors and related industrial metals [4] Group 2 - For 2026, a moderate economic slowdown is anticipated, but growth in developed economies like the U.S. and Europe is expected to remain stable, with AI-related investments in the U.S. continuing to mitigate recession risks [4] - In China, inflation trends will be crucial for the performance of stocks and bonds in 2026, with expectations of rising PPI and stable CPI, leading to improved corporate earnings and a potential continuation of the bull market in equities [5] - The recommended asset allocation strategy is "neutral optimism, buy on dips," with a focus on U.S. stocks, gold, and industrial metals like copper, while also suggesting a diversified approach in the A-share market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The transition from "K-shaped divergence" to "reflation" in the U.S. indicates a shift in global liquidity expectations from easing to tightening, impacting various asset classes and market dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: K-shaped Divergence - The structure of the U.S. balance sheet shows a healthy private sector, particularly post-COVID-19 QE, leading to a significant accumulation of net assets among high-net-worth individuals, primarily in real estate and equities [1]. - The current mortgage rate for high-net-worth individuals stands at 4.2%, while the new 30-year loan rate is at 6.1%, highlighting the disparity in borrowing costs [1]. - The "high-net-worth group" can leverage cash-out refinancing to support consumer spending and stock market liquidity, while the "new borrowing group" faces challenges in asset acquisition due to economic uncertainties [2]. Group 2: Transition to Reflation - The recent upward movement of the lower end of the K-shaped divergence suggests that high-net-worth individuals are stabilizing the economy and asset price expectations, creating favorable conditions for the new borrowing group [3]. - The housing sector, which is seen as a source of inflation, is experiencing a recovery, indicating a potential shift towards reflation in the U.S. economy [3]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations - Demand-driven inflation expectations exhibit a self-reinforcing mechanism, which can lower real interest rates and compress credit spreads, leading to a situation where actual mortgage rates are at their lowest in three years [4]. - The current dynamics explain why long-term U.S. Treasury yields are rising while the housing sector is recovering against the trend [4]. Group 4: Global Liquidity Dynamics - The shift from "K-shaped divergence" to "reflation" is mirrored in global liquidity trends, with Bitcoin serving as a barometer for these changes, affecting tech-heavy indices and prompting style shifts within A-shares [5]. - The anticipated policy combination of "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" suggests a non-typical reflation trade, resembling stagflation in some aspects, with a focus on the interconnectedness of major asset classes under changing liquidity conditions [5].

美国的"再通胀"之路 [Table_Authors] 韩朝辉(分析师) ——全球流动性"潮汐"研究一 "再通胀"的归途 当"K型分化"转向"再通胀" 本报告导读： 当美国从"K型分化"转向"再通胀"，近期全球流动性似乎也从宽松预期的放缓， 转向紧缩预期的抬头。"降息+缩表"的政策组合预期下，注定这是一场非典型的再 通胀交易（有时更像是滞胀交易）。关注全球流动性"潮汐"下的大类资产联动。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] "K型分化"的来路 美国资产负债表的结构特征。 →美国私人部门的资产负债表相当健康（尤其是 2020 年疫后 QE 阶 段加了一波杠杆的群体），导致美国高净值群体拥有大量的净资产（其中 以房产和股权为主）；而疫后美国的利率结构也比较特殊，由于大量的信 贷扩张是发生在 QE阶段，导致高净值群体的存量抵押贷款利率并不算高 （目前是 4.2%）。作为对比，目前 30 年期新发贷款利率在 6.1%。 导致利率敏感度的截然不同。 →"高净值群体"可以通过再融资贷款（cash-out refinance）将净资产 变现，支撑消费端韧性和美股流动性，所以当新旧贷款利差（再融资扩张 的边际成本）收窄 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. real estate market is viewed as a "watchtower" for the K-shaped economy, where high-income groups support GDP resilience while traditional industries and low-income groups contract[8] - The housing affordability index is currently at a historical low but remains above 100, indicating that median-income households can still afford to purchase homes[12] - The K-shaped economic divergence raises questions about whether it will lead to recession or re-inflation driven by wealthier groups supporting the economy[8] Group 2: Housing Affordability - 60% of the decline in housing affordability can be attributed to high home prices, while 40% is due to elevated interest rates[16] - A significant improvement in housing affordability is expected if mortgage rates drop below 5.6% (currently at 6.1%) or if the price-to-income ratio falls to 3.5 (currently at 3.8)[16] - Median household income growth is projected to remain robust at 4-5% in 2025, outpacing the 1-2% growth in median home prices, which supports a favorable outlook for affordability[17] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. housing market has faced long-term supply shortages since the subprime crisis, with challenges including difficult land acquisition, labor shortages, and regulatory constraints[27] - Existing home supply is constrained due to high interest rates, and the sensitivity of new home prices to supply has decreased over the past decade[27] - The overall housing supply gap is expected to widen, making it difficult to quickly rectify the supply-demand mismatch even if construction capacity improves[27] Group 4: Inflation and Interest Rates - Housing inflation typically leads CPI by about 18 months, but in the current K-shaped economy, inflation expectations are coupled with interest rate cuts rather than tightening, resulting in a weaker dollar[38] - The long-term U.S. Treasury yield is projected to potentially exceed 4.5% and may challenge 5% due to the self-reinforcing cycle of inflation expectations[38] - The market has begun to accept a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve, reflected in the long-end Treasury yields anchoring inflation expectations at 2.4%[38]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 黄金观点：高位消化波动，结构性支撑依然稳固。 逻辑：逻辑上看，近期黄金回调过程中，ETF仅出现约20吨的小幅流 出，且更接近阶段性止盈而非趋势性撤离，前期流出压力基本释放， 后续具备重新累积的条件。官方部门需求仍是中长期核心支撑，中国 央行1月继续增持黄金，延续对储备结构安全性的配置取向。政策层 面，虽然短期仍需观察通胀与就业数据对利率路径的影响，但2026年 降息预期并未被证伪，新一届美联储主席人选落地后，货币政策独立 性与美元信用问题重新进入定价框架，强化"去信用化交易"叙事。 地缘层面，美国外交与安全政策不确定性仍高，避险资产配置需求难 以消退。（以上新闻及数据均来自彭博终端） 展望：若宏观数据未显著逆转宽松预期，黄金仍具备震荡偏强基础。 白银观点：跟随金价调整，弹性逻辑尚未破坏。 逻辑： 白银在前期快速拉升后随黄金进入高位整理阶段，短期波动 更多反映风险偏好回落与多头获利了结。 展望：从中期看，白银对金价的跟随属性仍在，而其自身的弹性优势 尚未被系统性削弱。在金价维持高位运行的前提下，白银仍具备相对 收益空间，但需要警惕高波动环境下的阶段性回撤风险。若后 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about Japan's "re-inflation" risks are resurfacing as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party secures a supermajority in the House of Representatives, with expectations of a weak yen persisting until 2027, maintaining an exchange rate range of 150-160 yen per dollar [3][5]. Economic Conditions and Fiscal Policy - The Oxford Economics report indicates that the ruling party's proposal to potentially reduce the food consumption tax from 8% to zero could lead to an annual tax revenue loss of 5 trillion yen, but this will not alter fiscal forecasts for 2026 and 2027 due to the lengthy approval process [5]. - The basic fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to be 2%-3% for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027, expected to persist until 2028 before gradually declining [5]. Inflation and Currency Dynamics - Japan is caught in a "vicious cycle" of currency depreciation and inflation, exacerbated by the central bank's lack of a strong anti-inflation stance, leading to increased risk premiums and further yen depreciation [6]. - The current inflation rate is around 3%, while short-term interest rates remain at 1%, indicating a lack of decisive action from the Bank of Japan to combat inflation, which maintains high inflation expectations [6]. Central Bank and Government Intervention - The Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates significantly to defend the yen, as it prefers to leave currency policy to the government, with the next expected rate hike in July [7][8]. - The central bank's cautious approach is influenced by the potential risks associated with yen financing arbitrage trades and the current political instability in Japan [8]. Asset Management and Market Trends - There is a trend towards reducing Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as part of a broader strategy to manage the central bank's balance sheet, especially given the high valuation of these assets [9]. - Historical interventions by Japan in the currency market have shown that such actions can only temporarily mitigate volatility without altering the underlying market trends driven by fundamental economic conditions [9].

Group 1 - The Japanese ruling party's acquisition of a "super majority" in the House of Representatives has reignited concerns about the risk of "re-inflation" in Japan [1] - Oxford Economics predicts that the weak yen will persist until 2027, with an exchange rate range of 150-160 yen per dollar [1] - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds rose significantly to 3.50%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Global investors are worried about the potential deterioration of Japan's fiscal situation due to the ruling party's commitment to explore reducing the food consumption tax from 8% to zero for two years, which is expected to reduce tax revenue by 5 trillion yen annually [4] - Despite the proposed tax cuts, Oxford Economics maintains its fiscal forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027, as the measures require at least two years of deliberation and may ultimately be shelved [4] Group 3 - The basic fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is expected to be between 2%-3% for FY2026 and FY2027, continuing until FY2028, with a gradual decline expected thereafter [5] - Japan is currently in a "vicious cycle" of currency depreciation and inflation, exacerbated by the central bank's lack of a strong anti-inflation stance, leading to an expanded risk premium [5][6] - The central bank's failure to signal a commitment to combat inflation has maintained high inflation expectations, further pushing up inflation [5] Group 4 - To break the current deadlock, three potential paths are suggested: the central bank could raise interest rates above inflation, inflation could suddenly decrease, or the government could shift to a tightening fiscal stance [6] - The likelihood of the latter two options is considered low, making the first option the most viable for restoring monetary credibility [6][7] Group 5 - The Bank of Japan is cautious about raising interest rates too soon, as it could destabilize risk assets supported by yen financing arbitrage [7] - The central bank has historically avoided political risks, leaving currency policy to the government, which may delay significant rate hikes until July [7][8] Group 6 - The potential for the Bank of Japan to intervene in the currency market is limited, as past interventions have only temporarily alleviated currency volatility without changing the underlying trend [9] - The central bank's focus is more on wage growth than on the yen's exchange rate, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [8][9]

2 月利率展望：赔率阶段性不足，关注再通胀与供给扰动 20260205 摘要 12 月出口同比增长 6.6%，非美地区（如印度、欧盟、东盟）增速超 10%，出口多元化支撑稳固，预计全年出口实现温和且结构更优的正增 长。 房地产市场仍处探底阶段，新房销售和房屋竣工面积同比负增长，政策 调整观察窗口期，需关注后续地产政策推进和落地情况。 2 月政府债券供给预计达 1.56 万亿元，较 1 月增加，专项债发行量显著 提升，普通国债规模预计为 4,361 亿元，供给压力上升可能对市场产生 扰动。 央行通过流动性管理保持 2 月资金面充裕，资金利率波动小，同业存单 收益率稳定，1 月 MLF 净投放量达 10,000 亿，显示央行维护跨春节流 动性的意图。 货币政策维持适度宽松，潘行长表示降准降息仍有空间，关注央行国债 买卖操作，一季度末前后或是再次关注降准降息的重要窗口期。 地产行业目前仍处于供需两端承压状态。需求端，新房销售面积与销售额累计 同比增速依然负增长；供给端，新开工房屋面积略有小幅上涨，但房屋竣工与 施工面积跌幅扩大。因此，目前地产行业整体疲软，对经济复苏构成一定压力。 在此背景下，需要密切关注政策变化及 ...