近期，A股市场持续走强，上证指数连续多日站稳3500点关键心理关口，并在7月23日突破了3600点关口，而债市却因"股债跷跷板"效应遭遇显 著调整。 7月以来，国债期货各品种持续走弱，信用债市场波动有所加剧，多家基金公司紧急调整债基净值精度以应对赎回压力，市场情绪趋于谨慎。 债市接连调整 7月23日，在A股市场突破3600点关口之际，债市再次出现回调走势。 截至发稿，30年期国债期货跌0.44%，报118.99元。自7月初以来，该国债期货累计跌幅接近2%。 | F9 前复权 超级蓉加 画线 丁具 © > | | | CFFEX30年期国债期货 | | | 立即 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.42% 2025/01/08-2025/07/23(130日)▼ n | | 118.99 | | -0.53 -0.44% | | 交易 | | | | CFFEX CNY 11:28:18 | | | | 1 . . + | | | | 型一 | 119.00 | 13 | | -2 | | | | 画一 | 118.99 | 27 | | -13 ...

商品市场对反内卷的计价已然轰轰烈烈。很多人尝试对标2015～2016年的供给侧改革行情，但值得注意 的是，此时与彼时已有很大的不同：在见到供改的明确方案和目标前，市场已经迅速进入了加速的阶 段。历史记忆之下，市场似乎明显压缩了上一轮"质疑"和"犹豫"的环节。 这表明，在各路测算之余，我们还需要对上一轮供改的"情绪节奏"进行复盘，我们看到，在巨大的上升 行情中，质疑、笃定、验证、恐慌、凝聚、狂热…在每一个阶段表现得淋漓尽致，供改从口号到现实并 不是一路坦途。其中既有政策执行过程中必然的纠结反复，也有市场和行业的反身性演绎。 本文以复盘为先，希望直接阅读结论和启示的读者可以照例直接拉到文末。 一般认为供改的起点是2015年11月，但从黑色系行情来看，直到12月18日细化提出"三去一降一补"后， 黑色系行情才算正式启动。需要注意到，尽管地产需求是供改行情的大背景，但并非直接触发，产业高 度过剩的阶段，需求端并非主导逻辑。在后视镜看来相当重要的棚改货币化政策，早在2015年3月即已 提出，经历了5月PSL的加速落地和6月地产新政的加速，已经全面铺开了大半年。 截至年末，尽管土拍和新开工面积增速都还处于水下，但地产销售 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the Chinese economy, AI industry, and the semiconductor sector, particularly focusing on companies like Nvidia and AMD, as well as major Chinese tech firms such as Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, and Global Data. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Chinese Export Growth**: China's export growth exceeded expectations, with a cumulative growth rate of approximately 6% in the first half of the year, aided by a nearly 20% depreciation of the RMB's effective exchange rate since 2022, enhancing price competitiveness for Chinese manufactured goods [1][3][4]. 2. **Domestic Policy Changes**: The implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to stabilize price expectations and may signal the beginning of Supply-Side Reform 2.0, aimed at addressing current price declines and weak demand [1][5]. 3. **US Economic Growth Expectations**: The US "Inflation Reduction Act" is projected to positively impact GDP growth, potentially increasing it by up to 1.5 percentage points in 2025, supported by significant tax cuts and increased tariff revenues [1][3]. 4. **Stabilization of RMB Exchange Rate**: Contrary to initial predictions of significant depreciation, the RMB has remained stable or appreciated slightly, with forecasts suggesting a potential decline of about 20% in the USD index over the next three to five years [1][4]. 5. **China's GDP Growth**: In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3%, with external demand contributing significantly, although internal demand remained weak. Retail growth was driven by policies encouraging the replacement of old products, particularly in appliances [1][8]. 6. **AI Industry Outlook**: The relaxation of export controls on Nvidia and AMD chips is seen as a positive signal for China's AI industry, although a supply gap is still anticipated in 2025. Major beneficiaries are expected to be cloud service providers and leading companies in the data center chain [2][19]. 7. **Real Estate Market Challenges**: The real estate market in China faces significant challenges, with sales declining sharply in Q2. The government is expected to implement more supportive policies to stabilize the market [12][9]. 8. **Investment Trends**: There is a notable shift in global capital flows, with significant inflows into the US market, particularly in AI-related sectors, while emerging markets are experiencing net outflows [13][14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Macroeconomic Policy Adjustments**: The upcoming political bureau meeting is expected to focus on the effects of anti-involution policies, which are seen as crucial for achieving economic rebalancing and preventing further price declines [5][10]. 2. **Consumer Spending Trends**: Consumer spending is showing signs of recovery, particularly in categories like home appliances and electronics, with retail growth rates reaching 20% to 30% in certain segments [8]. 3. **Potential Monetary Policy Changes**: There is speculation about possible interest rate cuts in the US, with a high probability of two rate cuts within the year, which could influence market dynamics [3][10]. 4. **Impact of CPI and PPI Trends**: Negative growth in both CPI and PPI in the first half of 2025 could lead to a negative feedback loop affecting economic expectations and demand [11]. 5. **Long-term AI Investment Confidence**: Foreign investors maintain a positive outlook on AI technology, viewing it as a significant driver of productivity and new market opportunities, particularly in China due to its data resources and research capabilities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for economic rebalancing in China to address the downward pressure on prices and achieve re-inflation, emphasizing the importance of both supply-side and demand-side reforms to stimulate economic growth and improve asset returns [2][5][10]. Economic Rebalancing - The current state of China's economy is characterized by stable quantity but declining prices, necessitating a rebalancing of supply and demand to reverse price declines and achieve re-inflation [5][10]. - The Central Economic Committee's recent meetings indicate a push for orderly exit of outdated production capacity, signaling the potential advancement of supply-side reforms [6][10]. Internal and External Imbalances - China's external imbalance is reflected in a trade surplus, projected to be 5.2% of GDP in 2024, while internal imbalances manifest in mismatches between savings and investment, as well as consumption and production [11][13]. - The consumer rate in China has increased from a low of 34% in 2010 to 39% in 2023, indicating a gradual improvement in domestic consumption [6]. Supply-Side Reform and "Anti-Involution" - The article highlights the concept of "anti-involution," which aims to combat low-quality, price-cutting competition among firms, a significant issue in various industries including steel, cement, and automotive [15][17]. - The government is focusing on creating a unified market and eliminating local protectionism to enhance supply efficiency, which requires coordination with demand-side policies [17]. Industry Performance and Market Outlook - The stock market has shown structural trends, with A-shares reflecting valuation changes rather than earnings growth, as indicated by declining revenue and profit growth rates among listed companies [6][25]. - The article suggests that a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) could signal a turnaround in corporate profitability, supported by new consumption and technological advancements [7][25]. Economic Growth Projections - The article projects that China's GDP growth could reach around 5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, contingent on effective macroeconomic policies and a rebound in consumer spending [22][45]. - The anticipated economic growth is expected to be supported by fiscal policies, including potential subsidies for child-rearing to stimulate consumption [43][47]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The article notes that inflation remains weak, with the PPI experiencing a continuous decline, which may prompt further monetary easing, including potential interest rate cuts [40][48]. - The expected depreciation of the yuan against the dollar may also influence export performance, with a projected 5% growth in exports for the year [45][49].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and outlook of fixed income products in the context of the bond market, highlighting the stability of short-term interest rates and the potential for credit bonds to outperform interest rate bonds in the near future [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Review of Fixed Income Product Returns - In the past month, the bond market experienced low volatility with positive returns across various fixed income products. The leading performance was observed in rights-embedded bond funds, followed by medium to long-term bond funds [3][8]. - As of July 17, the returns for different products over the past month were: rights-embedded bond funds at 0.89% (previously 0.54%), medium-term bond funds at 0.22% (previously 0.31%), short-term bond funds at 0.19% (unchanged), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit at 0.17% (previously 0.15%), and cash management products at 0.11% (unchanged) [3][8]. Bond Market Review - The bond market has shown low volatility with mixed performance between short and long-term bonds. The market sentiment improved due to "anti-involution" policies and the delayed imposition of tariffs by the U.S., which bolstered optimistic expectations [10][11]. - The liquidity in the banking sector was relatively relaxed, with the central bank's actions leading to a slight decrease in short-term interest rates. The one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate fell to 1.63% [11][15]. Industry Events Tracking - On July 11, the National Financial Supervision Administration released the "Financial Institutions Product Suitability Management Measures," effective from February 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing consumer protection and regulating financial institutions' suitability management [37]. Outlook for the Bond Market - Short-term expectations indicate stable interbank certificate of deposit rates, while the long-term outlook remains bullish for bonds, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% [1][31]. - Credit bonds are anticipated to perform better than interest rate bonds, with a focus on maintaining a balanced duration strategy and considering high-grade long-term credit bonds for potential gains [1][40]. Fixed Income Product Strategy and Recommendations - For investors needing liquidity management, maintaining cash-like products is advisable, while for conservative investors, holding pure bond products with a potential extension of duration is recommended [40][41]. - For more aggressive investors, the article suggests considering fixed income plus products that include convertible bonds and equity assets, with strategies such as quantitative neutral, index enhancement, and multi-asset approaches [42].

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 刘昊 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并 不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 新一轮供给侧变局中，尚未有时间表和实施的路线，但市场的氛围整体围绕产能变化预期、成本提升预期进行交易，且击鼓 传花在碳酸锂和工业硅上演之后，或正迈向情绪定价的高点。 反过度竞争在7月初提出之后，到目前为止，尚未公布明确的时间表或可直接实施的方案，这反映出实施的复杂性。参考过往 的行业低价竞争，未来的终局措施或以：建立成本锚定与违规惩戒机制、行政手段加速淘汰落后产能以及审慎补贴发放等方 式展开。 供给侧正成为商品当下定价的重中之重，从焦煤到光伏产业链。 后续成本锚定成为价格中枢的关键位置。 国产煤成本相对分化，山西国企精煤完全成本超1000元/吨（高人工成本+安全投 入），民企成本约700–900元/吨，当前现货价（山西 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", with an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [25] Core Viewpoints - The recent rally in commodity prices is a result of the resonance between supply disruptions and improved expectations, and there are four "suspicious points" in this rally [1] - The divergence between commodity prices and PPI is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound [1] - For the bond market, the significance of monitoring commodity prices lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors. There is a risk of adjustment if expectations boost the fundamentals [1] Summary by Directory Suspicious Point 1: Long - lasting and High - amplitude Increase - The commodity rally has lasted for a month, the longest this year, and has recovered nearly 50% of the decline since the tariff announcement. Technically, it seems more like a market reversal than a short - term rebound [1][4] Suspicious Point 2: Driven by Seemingly Random Factors but with a Rising Price Center - The rally can be divided into three stages: the first stage (604 - 612) was a technical rebound after the release of pessimistic sentiment; the second stage (613 - 624) saw prices rise and then fall due to the Israel - Iran war; the third stage (625 onwards) was driven by the "anti - involution" market. After these stages, the industrial product price index rose by 5.6% compared to June 3 [7][8] - The rising price center is due to three reasons: low prices leading to a high probability of upward movement, improved pessimistic expectations after the China - US leaders' call, and the seasonal tendency for prices to rise during the safety inspection and maintenance months of June and July [10][11] Suspicious Point 3: Lack of Demand - side Support for the Price Rebound - From the perspectives of fundamentals and price spreads, the demand side has been weak. The "old economy" related to real estate has not reversed its weakness, and the real estate market shows "weak volume and price" [15] - There is a divergence between futures and spot prices for some commodities, with the price increase mainly reflecting expectations rather than actual demand [17] Suspicious Point 4: The Commodity Rebound Has Not Yet Appeared in PPI - In June, PPI remained weak, with the year - on - year figure dropping by 0.3 percentage points compared to May. The divergence is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission [19] - The weekly production materials price index has rebounded for three consecutive weeks since June. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound in July [20] Impact on the Bond Market - The significance of monitoring commodity prices for the bond market lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors [1] - Currently, the risk of a fundamental reversal in commodity prices is low, but the price rebound may be transmitted to inflation. There is a high possibility of improvement in July's PPI [1] - In the long run, commodity prices depend on the relative changes in supply and demand. If expectations boost the fundamentals, there is a risk of adjustment in the bond market [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In June 2025, the CPI continued to recover, with the core CPI rising steadily, indicating that domestic demand is still steadily recovering. However, there are signs of a slowdown in consumption momentum. The PPI continued to decline due to structural and seasonal factors, which will drag down the profits of industrial enterprises and is not conducive to the continuous recovery of the CPI. The "anti-involution" policy may be accelerated to promote re - inflation [1][7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Core CPI YoY Continues to Rise, and Domestic Demand Recovery Continues - In June, the CPI rose 0.1% YoY, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, slightly better than market expectations. The decline in the MoM rate narrowed. The recovery of consumer goods prices was the main driving force for the CPI to turn from decline to growth. The service CPI rose 0.5% YoY, while the consumer goods CPI fell 0.2% YoY, with the decline narrowing [8]. - Food prices fell 0.3% YoY, with the decline narrowing. Beef prices turned positive after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell for the first time after consecutive increases. Energy prices saw a narrower decline, mainly due to rising oil prices [8]. - The core CPI rose 0.7% YoY in June, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, showing a continuous upward trend since February. The MoM growth rate was flat compared to the previous month, slightly better than the seasonal average [8]. - In June, prices of clothing, education, culture and entertainment, healthcare, and other goods and services rose YoY, with the growth rates increasing compared to the previous month. Endogenous consumption continued to recover. With the support of the "trade - in" policy, prices of household appliances and cars continued to recover, but the price of communication tools turned negative for the first time this year [9]. - The recovery of the CPI in June was driven by factors such as the rise in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation, the improvement of consumer confidence since September 2024, and the "trade - in" policy. However, prices of some policy - supported consumer goods have shown signs of decline [9]. 2. Structural and Seasonal Factors Affect the Decline of PPI Growth - In June, the PPI fell 3.6% YoY, exceeding market expectations of a 3.2% decline and down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The MoM decline was 0.4%, the same as the previous month. Prices of the mining, processing, and raw material industries all declined, with the decline rates widening [18]. - By industry, coal mining and washing, ferrous metal mining, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling had relatively large MoM declines, while oil and gas extraction and non - ferrous metal mining had relatively large increases. The decline in coal prices was due to increased alternative energy generation in summer and sufficient coal stocks. The decline in ferrous metal prices was due to the impact of weather on construction and sufficient supply. The rise in oil prices was mainly due to the escalation of the Israeli - Palestinian conflict [23]. - Since September 2024, China's macro - economy has been generally stable, and the PPI decline rate has briefly narrowed. However, since February 2025, the continuous decline in PPI may be due to supply - side structural factors [23]. 3. Persistent Low Inflation May Accelerate the "Anti - Involution" Policy - Since the Politburo meeting in July 2024 first mentioned preventing "involution - style" competition, "anti - involution" has been mentioned in many important occasions. Given the current low levels of CPI and PPI, the urgency and practical significance of "anti - involution" are stronger, and it may become an important means to promote re - inflation [24]. - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st clearly required to legally regulate the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. On July 3rd, relevant departments and industry associations also took actions related to "anti - involution." Under the expectation of "anti - involution," prices of many commodities have risen. The "anti - involution" is a systematic project of supply - demand re - balance. If policy coordination is achieved, the PPI may turn positive from late 2025 to early 2026 [24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in China, highlighting the challenges of low inflation and the need for effective policy measures to stimulate demand and support economic recovery [4][6][41]. Economic Data Analysis - Recent economic data from May shows marginal improvements in areas such as social financing growth, service consumption, and employment, yet the capital market remains indifferent [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June is reported at -0.1% year-on-year, indicating persistent deflationary pressures [6]. Inflation Expectations - Analysts have differing views on inflation trends for 2025, with some predicting continued low CPI due to weak external demand and potential tariff impacts from U.S. policies [11][12]. - Others argue that global inflationary pressures and domestic policy support could lead to a CPI increase of around 1% in 2025 [15]. Internal Demand Challenges - The article emphasizes the complexity of internal demand issues, with analysts noting that low inflation reflects a combination of wealth erosion, economic downturn, and weakened expectations [17]. - Key factors influencing CPI include core CPI, employment, and consumer spending, with predictions ranging from a slight recovery to continued low inflation depending on economic conditions [19][32]. Policy Responses - The article discusses the need for comprehensive policy measures to address the economic challenges, including support for vulnerable groups and improving overall income distribution [41][43]. - Analysts suggest that relying solely on short-term measures like subsidies may not be sufficient to drive sustainable consumption growth [41]. Market Outlook - The outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, with analysts divided on the potential for economic recovery and inflation resurgence, emphasizing the importance of consumer demand in achieving a stable economic environment [45][46].

以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张伟栋 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 本文来自微信公众号： 远川投资评论 ，作者：张伟栋，编辑：张婕妤，题图来自：视觉中国 股票市场对经济数据的变化一向敏感，但今年6月似乎是个例外。 其中，最谨慎的可能要属李迅雷。 在去年末发布的《聚焦最终需求——2025年中国经济展望》中，李迅雷预测，2025年物价低位运行 趋势将延续，全年CPI同比甚至将从2024年的0.3%进一步下降到-0.1%，其中的关键影响因素在于 出 口 。 虽然2024年我国的出口表现亮眼，但主要源于"以价换量"。在李迅雷看来，特朗普再次就任总统之 后，将推行重商主义政策加征关税，直接影响我国的外需。同时低价抢出口的策略也使得中国与一些 新兴市场国家产生了利益冲突，可能使中国的出口环境进一步恶化。 而出口转弱，最终会向制造业投资和消费等内需传导，进而影响国内供求格局和物价形势 [1] 。 从刚刚披露的5月经济数据来看，相比前四个月，大部分领域如社融增速、服务消费、就业数据等均 呈现出边际改善的趋势，结果却撞上了资本市场的冷眼旁观。 原因也许并不复杂：当经济发展要向消费转型已经形成一种宏观共识，持续疲软的C ...