Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The price of domestic crude oil futures contract 2508 is expected to run weakly and maintain a volatile and weak trend on Wednesday, June 26, 2025, due to the weakening of geopolitical factors [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view (within one week) for crude oil 2508 is a volatile trend [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view (two weeks to one month) for crude oil 2508 is a volatile trend [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view for crude oil 2508 is volatile and weak [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The market's trading of geopolitical logic has weakened as US President Trump's comments indicated the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, and then the two countries announced a formal cease - fire. Investors believe that the impact of Middle Eastern geopolitical factors on oil prices will not intensify further, and the geopolitical premium will decline. As a result, domestic and international crude oil futures prices have significantly corrected. On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract fell 9.27% to 502.3 yuan/barrel [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weakly oscillatory [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Trends**: The 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed a weakly oscillatory trend in the night session on Tuesday, with the futures price slightly down 0.07% to 13765 yuan/ton, and is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [5] - **Core Logic**: As geopolitical factors weaken, the common positive effects on energy and chemical commodity futures decline, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market re - dominate. Currently, the supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed down, and terminal demand has entered the off - season [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Trends**: The 2508 contract of synthetic rubber futures showed a weakly oscillatory trend in the night session on Tuesday, with the futures price down 1.12% to 11065 yuan/ton, and is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [7] - **Core Logic**: Due to comments from former US President Trump indicating the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, and subsequent news of an official cease - fire, the trading of geopolitical logic in the market weakened. The sharp correction of domestic and international crude oil futures prices dragged down the synthetic rubber futures [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and the intraday trend being weakly oscillatory. The weakening of geopolitical factors is the main reason for the weakening trend of methanol [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.品种晨会纪要 - For methanol 2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. The reference view is weakly running, and the core logic is that geopolitical factors are weakening, leading to a weakly oscillatory methanol market [1] 2.主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 - The intraday view of methanol is weakly oscillatory, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of weakly running. Due to Trump's comment indicating the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel and the subsequent official cease - fire announcement, the geopolitical trading logic has weakened. Crude oil futures prices at home and abroad have significantly corrected, and international methanol prices have also declined. On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 0.79% to 2395 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract will maintain a weakly oscillatory trend [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract will maintain a weak - oscillating trend. The weakening of geopolitical factors is the main reason for this view. After the US - Iran conflict shows signs of easing, the methanol futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.71% to 2469 yuan/ton on the night session of Monday last week, and it is expected to continue this trend on Tuesday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Analysis - In the short - term (within a week), the methanol 2509 contract is expected to oscillate; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it will also oscillate; and on an intraday basis, it will oscillate weakly and run in a weak manner [1]. Driving Logic - Geopolitical factors have weakened. After Trump's comments and Iran's equivalent retaliatory actions without blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the methanol futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower on the night session of Monday last week, and is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating trend on Tuesday [5]. Market Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - session closing price, and for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is a weak oscillation, an increase of 0 - 1% is a strong oscillation, and an increase of more than 1% is a rise. The concepts of strong/weak oscillation only apply to intraday views [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors have made precious metal prices strong, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate meeting. The future possibility of interest rate cuts is relatively high due to Trump's pressure on the Fed. The expected change in real interest rates is likely to be downward, which is favorable for gold prices. However, the gold market may be in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. Silver prices are strong, and there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. Although it is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution [1][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - US retail sales in May were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was supported by steady wage growth. The US dollar index weakened after the data release but quickly reversed its decline. Precious metal prices also strengthened, possibly due to complex geopolitical factors. The market generally believes that the Fed will not adjust interest rates at this meeting, but the possibility of future rate cuts is relatively high due to Trump's pressure [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On June 17, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 792.68 yuan/gram and closed at 785.08 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 192,889 lots, and the open interest was 168,935 lots. The night session closed at 787.38 yuan/gram, up 0.04% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened and closed at 8,864 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 457,021 lots, and the open interest was 409,052 lots. The night session closed at 8,988 yuan/kilogram, up 1.71% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 17, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.46%, a change of 0.05% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.45%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 55 lots, and the short positions decreased by 28 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 382,113 lots, a decrease of 12.21% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions increased by 816 lots, and the short positions increased by 721 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract was 752,455 lots, a decrease of 19.76% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 945.94 tons, an increase of 4.01 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,675.36 tons, a decrease of 39.58 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 17, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 5.97 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -561.85 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 88.57, a decrease of 0.98% from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 93.60, a change of -1.40% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On June 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 40,822 kilograms, an increase of 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 284,700 kilograms, a decrease of 48.26% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,652 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 32,520 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging between 780 yuan/gram and 785 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Although it is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices experienced slight fluctuations, with a current price of $3375.61 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.16% [1] - The gold price opened at $3379.54 per ounce, reached a high of $3392.00, and a low of $3362.83 during the trading session [1] - Geopolitical factors contributed to a significant increase in gold prices on the previous Monday, with a daily high of $3381, indicating a potential upward trend with a focus on breaking the $3400 resistance level [3] Group 2: Japanese Economic Insights - Japan's economy is experiencing a "hot domestic and cold external" situation, with domestic demand sectors benefiting from tourism recovery and consumption upgrades, leading to a record capital expenditure of 18.8 trillion yen (approximately $130 billion) in Q1 2025 [2] - The capital expenditure saw a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, driven by strong investments in the food and real estate sectors, aligning with the government's "tourism nation" strategy [2] - The investment surge is attributed to increased profits from inbound tourists purchasing Japanese goods and rising domestic service prices, encouraging companies to invest more [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bullish rating for both gold and silver, and suggests going long on the gold-silver ratio at low levels and selling put options [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - The passage of Trump's "Beautiful Big Bill" has raised concerns about US government debt, and the relatively poor long-term US Treasury bond auctions and reports of the Fed's potential bond-buying plan have supported the price of gold. Silver also maintains a relatively strong trend as gold prices rise, but there are doubts about the performance of the photovoltaic sector in the second half of the year [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The fourth round of Japan-US tariff negotiations is scheduled for the 30th, and the Japanese government plans to use 900 billion yen in national funds to mitigate the impact of US tariffs. The EU's "zero-tariff for zero-tariff" proposal is still on the table, and the EU plans to accelerate negotiations with the US. Trump Media & Technology Group plans to raise about $3 billion for cryptocurrency investments. Geopolitical tensions include preparations to strike Israel and a refusal to halt uranium enrichment. Western countries have removed the range limit on weapons aid to Ukraine [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 26, 2025, the Shanghai Gold futures main contract opened at 785.00 yuan/gram and closed at 777.30 yuan/gram, down 0.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 296,331 lots, and the open interest was 216,132 lots. The night session closed at 779.72 yuan/gram, down 0.23% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai Silver futures main contract opened at 8,251 yuan/kg and closed at 8,280 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 687,113 lots, and the open interest was 371,701 lots. The night session closed at 8,294 yuan/kg, up 0.29% from the afternoon session [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 26, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.51%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.51%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the number of long positions decreased by 23 lots, and the number of short positions increased by 243 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 539,548 lots, down 4.97% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the number of long positions was 136 lots, and the number of short positions increased by 171 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 925,933 lots, down 9.09% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position remained unchanged at 922.46 tons, and the silver ETF position remained unchanged at 14,217.50 tons compared to the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 26, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -3.76 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -474.18 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main gold and silver futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 93.88, down 0.56% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 100.67, up 0.51% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On May 26, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 61,062 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 325,264 kg, down 12.69% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 89,820 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 770 yuan/gram and 775 yuan/gram. Silver: It is also recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 7,950 yuan/kg and 8,000 yuan/kg. Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio at low levels. Options: Sell put options [8]