重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-03-03燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 燃料油： 1、基本面：在美以对伊朗发动袭击引发更广泛的中东地缘担忧之后，受短期内潜在供应中断的预期提振，亚洲低硫和 高硫燃料油市场结构均表现走强；多位市场消息人士表示，近期供应充足和下游船燃需求疲软，亚洲高硫燃料油市场近 几个交易日承压。但持续的地缘政治冲突导致的中东原油供应中断风险，可能会在未来为燃料油市场提供支撑；偏多 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油498.51美元/吨，基差为337元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为561.09美元/吨，基差为198元/吨， 现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油2月25日当周库存为2387.9万桶，减少277万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方，20日线偏上；偏多 5、主力持仓： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out [2] - Silver: In a volatile pattern [2] - Copper: Inventory increase restricts the upside space of prices [2] - Zinc: Range-bound fluctuations [2] - Lead: Lacks driving forces, prices are volatile [2] - Tin: Volatile adjustment [2] - Aluminum: Bullish operation [2] - Alumina: Range-bound fluctuations [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: The market trend is rather entangled [2] - Palladium: Expected to consolidate [2] - Nickel: The reality of the Indonesian ore end is catching up, be wary of speculative attributes in March [2] - Stainless steel: The contradiction at the ore end increases marginally, and the cost support center moves up [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,147.90, with a daily increase of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 1,159.98, with a night - session increase of 1.31%. The trading volume was 194,710, an increase of 25,303 from the previous day, and the open interest was 150,146, a decrease of 1,496 from the previous day. The spot gold in London rose 1.88% [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump stated that he would not stop the war until the goal was achieved, and did not rule out sending US ground troops to Iran "if necessary". The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months, and the price index soared to a nearly four - year high. Iran stated that it would not negotiate with the US, and the Strait of Hormuz was closed [4][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1 [7] Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 23,019, with a daily increase of 1.94%, and the night - session closing price was 23,927.00, with a night - session increase of 6.95%. The trading volume was 389,182, an increase of 31,572 from the previous day, and the open interest was 171,170, a decrease of 2,359 from the previous day. The spot silver in London rose 6.30% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Silver trend intensity is 1 [7] Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,850, with a daily decrease of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price was 102,280, with a night - session decrease of 1.51%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 326,580, an increase of 20,754 from the previous day, and the open interest was 574,994, a decrease of 3,504 from the previous day. The LME copper inventory increased by 3,975 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's statement on the Iran war. The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months. Hudbay Minerals obtained approval to expand the Copper Mountain mine. Japan's January copper and copper alloy imports increased by 13.51% year - on - year. Chile's January copper production decreased by 3% year - on - year [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [10] Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24,850, with a daily increase of 0.57%. The LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 3,308, with a daily decrease of 1.74%. The Shanghai Zinc main contract trading volume was 186,884, an increase of 82,336 from the previous day, and the open interest was 95,630, an increase of 756 from the previous day. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 575 tons [11]. - **News**: Iran refused to negotiate with the US, and the Qatar LNG export plant was attacked, causing the European natural gas futures to soar [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 1 [13] Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,895, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 1,960, with a daily decrease of 0.96%. The Shanghai Lead main contract trading volume was 60,587, an increase of 11,518 from the previous day, and the open interest was 63,962, an increase of 118 from the previous day. The Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 1,888 tons [14]. - **News**: Trump's statement on the Iran war. The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15] Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 444,010, with a daily increase of 2.96%, and the night - session closing price was 416,600, with a night - session decrease of 7.16%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 462,899, an increase of 71,766 from the previous day, and the open interest was 49,947, a decrease of 5,845 from the previous day. The LME tin inventory decreased by 80 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Qatar energy was attacked and stopped LNG production, causing the European gas price to soar. Iran was prepared for a long - term war [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1 [19] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,465, an increase of 630 from the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,773, an increase of 29 from the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23,180, an increase of 450 from the previous day. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 124.60 million tons, an increase of 7.10 million tons from the previous day [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US federal appellate court rejected the Trump administration's request for tariff refund extension. Morgan Stanley warned that if the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, the Middle East crude oil would face a full - scale shutdown [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, alumina trend intensity is 0, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [22] Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the platinum futures 2606 was 626.50, with a daily increase of 0.44%. The closing price of the palladium futures 2606 was 463.65, with a daily decrease of 0.26%. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 29,411, and the open interest was 35,729. The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium was 802, and the open interest was 14,360 [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Uzbekistan stopped gold exports. The US appellate court rejected the Trump administration's request to postpone tariff refunds [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum trend intensity is 0, and palladium trend intensity is 0 [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 140,890, a decrease of 670 from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,385, an increase of 180 from the previous day. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,088, an increase of 3 from the previous day [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia planned to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula. Solway Investment Group planned to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia was between 260 million and 270 million tons [30][31][33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [36]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 3 日 黄金：地缘政治冲突爆发 白银：震荡格局 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 昨日收盘价 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盐涨幅 | 日 涨幅 | 0.12% | 沪金2602 | 1.147.90 | 1159.98 | 1. 31% | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1155. 17 | 资金T+D | 1, 142. 48 | -0. 05% | 0. 93% | Comex黄金2602 | 5296. 40 | 1.82% | 1 | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 5278. 26 | - | 1. 88% | 1 | 沪银2602 | 23019 | 23927.00 | 1. 94% | 6. 95% | | | 22369 | 白银T+D | 3. 47% | 23231 | 5. 38% | 价格 | Comex白银2602 | 94. 385 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-03-03 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-03-03 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美伊军事冲突不确定性增大，特朗普表示不排除"派遣地面部队" 观点分享： 美国与伊朗之间的军事冲突正快速扩大，各方表态与行动持续升级，局势走向高度不确 定。据央视新闻，当地时间 3 月 2 日，美国国防部长赫格塞思就针对伊朗的"史诗怒火"行 动举行新闻发布会。他确认，美军尚未向伊朗境内部署地面部队，但同时表示不排除任何选 项。特朗普则更进一步，对媒体表示不排除"必要时"向伊朗派遣地面部队，并称对伊打击 的"大浪潮"尚未到来。此后的公开讲话中，据央视，特朗普称，对伊朗军事行动可能持续 4 至 5 周，但他表示已做好"行动时间远超这个期限"的准备。特朗普表示，一个拥有核武 器的伊朗对美国来说是不可容忍的。美国继续在伊朗开展大规模军事行动。美以目标非常明 确，包括摧毁伊朗导弹能力，确保伊朗无法获得核武器。在国际层面，北约宣布不参与军事 行动。马克龙宣布提升法国核武库规模；法外长称美以对伊行动未经安理会审议，不具合法 性。英首相称不会参与对伊打击。伊媒称伊方未攻 ...

2026年03月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治冲突爆发 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡格局 | 3 | | 铜：库存增加，限制价格上方空间 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 9 | | 锡：震荡调整 | 10 | | 铝：偏强运行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：行情走势较为纠结 | 13 | | 钯：预计盘整 | 13 | | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 15 | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏强，关注底部支撑 | 17 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪扰动 | 19 | | 多晶硅：偏弱震荡格局 | 19 | | 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 22 | | 硅铁：资金与现实博弈，价格偏强震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：资金与现实博弈，价格偏强震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤： ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly focusing on the attacks on U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Qatar by Iraqi militia groups, specifically the "Islamic Resistance Organization" [1][2] - It reports that since March 2, the militia has launched 28 attacks using missiles and drones against U.S. units in Iraq and surrounding areas [2] - The article notes that the U.S. military has suffered casualties, with 6 soldiers reported dead and 18 injured due to the ongoing military actions against Iran [4][5] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of the conflict on global gold prices, with spot gold reaching $5,350 per ounce, an increase of 0.67%, and silver prices also rising [1] - It mentions that the ongoing conflict may lead to increased military spending and demand for strategic metals used in the defense industry, such as tungsten, molybdenum, and germanium [1] - The article indicates that the U.S. State Department has urged American citizens to leave several Middle Eastern countries due to the heightened risk following military actions against Iran [3]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 商品表现 ...

The market response to the United States’ and Israel’s military strikes against Iran has been global and almost universally negative. Stocks began slumping as early as Friday in a “risk-off” response as word of impending action spread. By Monday, major indexes in Asia and Europe were off by nearly 1% or more, relative to Friday's close. Oil prices rose. The killing of the Middle Eastern nation’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, added extra uncertainty to the already volatile situation.Key questions remain, inc ...

专题报告 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 2.28 美伊冲击升级对主要大宗商品的 影响 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 2月28日，美国与以色列联合对伊朗发动大规模军事打击， 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇袭身亡，伊朗称将开启最猛烈进 攻，地缘政治格局遭遇数十年来最剧烈冲击。 ⚫ 对于此次事件对大宗商品的影响，我们认为此地缘政策事 件对能化影响较大，对贵金属和有色金属会产生脉冲式的 冲击，后续需重点跟踪美伊冲突演变。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 6 2026 年 3 月 2 日 专题报告 2 月 28 日，美国与以色列联合对伊朗发动大规模军事打击，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇 袭身亡，伊朗称将开启最猛烈进攻，地缘 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran has escalated significantly, raising concerns about a wider war that could impact the global economy [1][2]. Military Actions - Washington and Israel conducted massive attacks on Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which prompted retaliatory strikes from Tehran [2][3]. - Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes targeting Israel and Gulf countries hosting U.S. military bases, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia [2]. Casualties and Damage - Over 200 individuals in Iran have reportedly been killed due to the strikes, while three American service members were killed and five seriously wounded [4]. Market Reactions - Crude oil prices surged, with U.S. crude rising over 8% to $72.57 per barrel and Brent crude increasing about 9% to $79.41 [5]. - Precious metals like gold and silver saw a rise of around 2% as investors sought safe-haven assets amid heightened global risk [5]. - Major stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropping 521 points, or 1% [6]. Political Reactions - U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that the conflict could last for about four weeks and mentioned that Iran's new leadership is open to negotiations [9][10]. - The legality of the U.S. strikes has been questioned, with experts stating there is no plausible legal justification for the attack [11][12]. - Global leaders have reacted variably, with Western leaders generally supporting the U.S. actions, while China and Russia condemned the strikes [13][14]. International Responses - China criticized the U.S. and Israel for their actions, calling for an immediate ceasefire [14]. - Russia's President Putin condemned the assassination of Khamenei, labeling it a violation of international law [14]. - Gulf states expressed unity in defense of their sovereignty and right to self-defense [14]. - The U.K. government distanced itself from the strikes but allowed the U.S. to use its military bases for defensive actions [14]. - France and Australia also expressed their positions, with France calling for negotiations and Australia supporting U.S. actions to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons [16][17][18].