2025年7月31日 第运日报 (航运研究小组) 中美经贸会议平稳结束，盘面冲高回落，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。 SCFIS. NCFI运价指数 分 字目行榜 Hou 以色列的本-古里安国际机场，导致机场运营中断。以色列国防军发表声明称，当天稍早时成功拦截了一枚由也门胡塞武装发射的弹道导弹。目前暂无人员 六中场 伤亡或财产损失的报告。 财联社7月30日电，周三的数据显示，德国经济在第二季委输了0.1%，与第一季0.4%的增长形成对比，主要原因是美国需求放缓，此前几个月由于预期美 国将提高关税，进口南大量采购德国商品。德国统计局表示，第二季的投资出现下降，但与前三个月相比，消费与政府支出则有所上升。 XL, by 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油副烈波动 SCFIS与期货价格走势 上海集表相指数 SCEISBA SCHIRGE -EC2510 -EC2512 -EC2602 -EC2604 -EC2606 -SCFIS指数(石油) 12,000.00 6,100 10,000.00 5,600 5,100 8,000.00 4,600 4,100 6,000.00 3,600 3,100 4 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts, tariff hikes, and high negotiation difficulty, it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [4]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light long positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract, partially take profits, and take light short positions for the EC2512 contract, paying attention to subsequent market trends and setting stop - losses [4]. - In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take light positions for arbitrage strategies [4]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [3]. - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [3]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [3]. - On July 25, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [3]. - On July 30, the main contract 2510 closed at 1468.7, down 0.45%, with a trading volume of 66,300 lots and an open interest of 54,900 lots, an increase of 4148 lots from the previous day [4]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.4, expected to be 49.8, the same as the previous value; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, expected to be 50.5, the same as the previous value; the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, expected to be - 6, higher than the previous value of - 8.1 [3]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, back above the critical point [3]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low [3]. Policy and Event Impact - Trump continued to impose tariffs on many countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases [4]. - The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been determined, with a slight price increase [4]. - The China - US economic and trade talks ended. It was stated that the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs that had been suspended and China's counter - measures would continue to be extended for 90 days. The overall market sentiment was strong, and the market rose and then fell back [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers are advised to take light long positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract (with a profit margin of over 300 points), partially take profits; take light short positions for the EC2512 contract, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, it is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take light positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

也门胡塞武装：我们将针对任何与以色列港口有业务往来的企业所属船只，无论其国籍如何。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. energy sector, particularly oil and gas, has been severely impacted by the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, leading to a significant reduction in energy exports to China [1][4][5] Energy Imports from the U.S. - China has almost completely stopped importing three major energy sources from the U.S.: coal, crude oil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) as of June [1][4] - In June, China did not import any crude oil from the U.S. for the first time in nearly three years, while the value of coal imports from the U.S. dropped to just a few hundred dollars compared to over $90 million in June of the previous year [1][4] - The U.S. LNG exports to China have also been zero for four consecutive months, indicating a significant decline in trade [1][4] Tariff Impacts - The Chinese government imposed tariffs on U.S. energy products, including a 15% tariff on coal and LNG, and a 10% tariff on crude oil, as a countermeasure to the trade war [1][5] - The high tariffs have made U.S. energy products less economically viable for Chinese buyers, leading to a strategic shift towards other suppliers [5][6] Market Dynamics - The share of U.S. LNG in China's imports has decreased from 11% in 2021 to just 6% last year, reflecting a broader trend of diversification in energy sourcing [4][6] - China is increasingly sourcing oil from countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia, with the U.S. barely making it into the top ten suppliers [5][6] Long-term Implications - Experts suggest that the cessation of U.S. crude oil imports by China may have long-lasting effects, with Chinese importers unlikely to sign new contracts for U.S. LNG [4][6] - The geopolitical tensions and U.S. sanctions are prompting China to enhance its domestic energy production and seek alternative energy sources, reducing reliance on U.S. imports [6][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, trading is highly challenging. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take a light long position in the 2510 contract below 1300 and consider taking profits if the market continues to decline. A light short position in the EC2512 contract is also suggested. For the long - term, take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [3]. - Due to the volatile international situation, the arbitrage strategy is mainly based on positive spreads, but it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [3]. 3. Key Points from Relevant Contents Shipping Market Conditions - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1440.25 points, up 0.35% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% from the previous period [1]. - On July 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1803.42 points, up 4.5% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 941.65 points, down 8.4% from the previous period [1]. - The latest quotes from liner companies for August show a mixed trend, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood regarding future freight rates. The 2510 contract has seen a reduction in positions and a downward trend in a wide - range volatile market [2]. Geopolitical and Economic Data - The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies have announced freight rate adjustments, and the spot market has tested the waters with a slight price increase [2]. - In June, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the service PMI was 50, and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [1]. - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. The US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [1]. - On July 22, the Yemeni Houthi rebels launched a missile at Israel's Ben - Gurion Airport. On July 21, the Israeli military attacked Houthi military facilities in the port of Hodeidah, and the Houthi rebels responded with drone attacks [4]. - On July 23, it was reported that high - level officials from the US, Israel, and Syria were expected to hold talks on July 24 to discuss security arrangements in southern Syria [4]. Trading Data - On July 23, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 2.72, down 2.72% with a trading volume of 59,500 lots and an open interest of 50,100 lots, a decrease of 1603 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18%, the margin to 28%, and the daily opening limit to 100 lots [3].

2025年7月24日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 班轮公司最新8月报价涨跌互现，盘面继续回撤，近月保持基差修复，今日若回调可考虑加仓，设置好止损, | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 7月21日 | 7月18日 | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1147.96点，较上期下跌5.75% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2400.50点，较上期下跌0.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1440.25点，较上期上涨0.35% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1301.81点，较上期上涨2.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1181.87点，较上期下跌0.40% | | 7月18日 | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1646.90点，较上期下跌86.39点 | 7月18日 | | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1303.54点，较上期下跌0.8% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2079USD/TEU, 较上期下跌1.00% | | ...

2025年7月23日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 大宗带动多头情绪，情绪分流盘面回调，近月保持基差修复，今日若回调可考虑加仓。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 7月18日 7月21日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1147.96点，较上期下跌5.75% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2400.50点，较上期下跌0.9% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1440.25点，较上期上涨0.35% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1301.81点，较上期上涨2.8% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1181.87点，较上期下跌0.40% 7月18日 7月18日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1646.90点，较上期下跌86.39点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1303.54点，较上期下跌0.8% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2079USD/TEU, 较上期下跌1.00% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1803.42点，较上期上涨4.5% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2142USD/FEU, 较上期 ...

部分班轮公司宣涨8月初运价,盘面偏强震荡,近月保持基差修复,今日若回调可考虑加仓。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 7月14日 | 7月18日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2421.94点，较上期上涨7.3% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1218.03点，较上期下跌3.19% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1266.59点，较上期下跌18.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1435.21点，较上期下跌0.50% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1186.59点，较上期上涨0.85% | | 7月18日 | 7月18日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1646.90点，较上期下跌86.39点 | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2079USD/TEU, 较上期下跌1.00% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1303.54点，较上期下跌0.8% | | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1803.42点，较上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the shipping market is challenging, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers can consider adding positions if the price continues to pull back, and short - selling lightly above 1950 for the EC2512 contract. In the long - term, it is advisable to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [5]. 3. Summary by Content Shipping Indexes - On July 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2421.94 points, up 7.3% from the previous period, and for the US West route was 1266.59 points, down 18.7% [3]. - On July 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the European route was 1435.21 points, down 0.50%, and the US West route was 1186.59 points, up 0.85% [3]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the European route price was 2099 USD/TEU, down 0.10%, and the US West route was 2194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% [3]. - On July 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the European route was 1726.41 points, up 1.9%, and the US West route was 1027.49 points, down 5.2% [3]. Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.4, service PMI was 50, and composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [3]. - US June Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, service PMI was 53.1, and composite PMI was 52.8 [3]. Market Situation - Trump's additional tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, have increased the difficulty of the game in the shipping market. Some shipping companies have announced price increases. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with a slight price increase to test the market, and the market has rebounded slightly [4]. - On July 17, the main contract 2510 closed at 1581.3, down 4.28%, with a trading volume of 65,600 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 453 lots from the previous day [4]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract and add positions if it continues to pull back today. Consider short - selling lightly above 1950 for the EC2512 contract [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [5]. Other Information - On July 16, the new round of cease - fire negotiations in Gaza made significant progress. Israel submitted a new withdrawal plan [6]. - In the first quarter of this year, global goods trade increased by 3.6% quarter - on - quarter and 5.3% year - on - year. The growth was mainly due to the expected tariff increase in the US, which led to a significant increase in North American imports [6]. - The US tariff policy has brought uncertainty to the operation of Hamburg Port [6]

智通财经7月17日电，据央视新闻，当地时间16日，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊警告美国等国，伊朗有能力 实施更沉重的打击。他强调，伊朗不主动寻求战争，但将对任何进攻予以坚决回击。哈梅内伊当天在会 见司法部门官员时表示，伊朗此前对美国袭击的反击精准打击了美国在该地区极其敏感的核心设施，并 警告称，伊朗还能对美国等国实施更沉重的打击。 伊朗最高领袖称有能力对美国实施更沉重打击 ...