Core Insights - The energy and chemical industry is facing significant challenges due to frequent market price fluctuations and increased operational pressures on companies [2] - Zhejiang X Trading Co., Ltd. (X Trading), a wholly-owned subsidiary of A Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (A Petrochemical), plays a crucial role in raw material procurement and product sales, engaging deeply in futures trading to hedge risks and enhance value [2][3] Group 1: Challenges Faced by the Company - Raw material cost control is a major challenge due to the complex and lengthy PTA industry chain, making it difficult for the company to predict and manage procurement costs of raw materials like crude oil and PX, which directly impacts profit stability [3] - The company needs to balance cost control and effective risk management, as traditional methods may be costly and ineffective [3] - In a volatile market, the company must adapt its operational strategies flexibly to enhance competitiveness, with effective risk management being key to achieving this goal [3] - Efficient hedging tools are necessary for the company to respond quickly to market price changes and reduce risk exposure [3] Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - A tailored comprehensive risk management plan was developed, including hedging strategies, basis trading strategies, and options insurance strategies [3] - The company utilized futures contracts for crude oil and PX to lock in raw material procurement costs and employed sell hedging on polyester product sales to mitigate price decline risks [3] - A professional team was established to provide full-service support, including advanced technical support and system integration for seamless trading and risk management [4] Group 3: Case Studies - In a case study, X Trading locked in production profits by buying crude oil and PX futures while selling PTA futures, establishing positions to secure PTA production profits amid fluctuating market conditions [5][6] - Another case involved using sell hedging and reverse hedging operations to mitigate the risk of inventory devaluation and basis risk due to excess PTA raw material inventory [8][9] - The effectiveness of these strategies was highlighted, demonstrating the importance of utilizing futures markets for hedging and risk management [10] Group 4: Evaluation of Strategies - The risk management plan allowed A Petrochemical to successfully lock in procurement costs and sales prices, effectively avoiding risks from market price volatility [12] - The company maintained stable profits despite significant price fluctuations in crude oil, PX, PTA, and polyester futures [12] - The implementation of risk management not only improved financial efficiency but also enabled the company to adapt its operational strategies in response to market changes, enhancing competitiveness [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Short coal - based profit [3] Core View - The polyolefin market continues fundamental trading, with weak and stable prices. During the upstream petrochemical plant maintenance season, the number of maintenance enterprises increases slightly, capacity utilization decreases, and new capacity continues to be released, so the overall supply maintains an increasing trend. Enterprises' inventory accumulates, and the destocking rate is slow. Downstream demand remains in the off - season, the terminal operating rate remains low, and the overall operating rate changes little. Purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and there is little hope for improvement in the short term. International oil prices and propane prices continue to be weak, and are expected to remain weak, with weak cost support, and PDH - made PP profit remains slightly profitable [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7215元/吨（+1），PP主力合约收盘价为7020元/吨（+7），LL华北现货为7150元/吨（-10），LL华东现货为7190元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为7070元/吨（-10），LL华北基差为 - 65元/吨（-11），LL华东基差为 - 25元/吨（-31），PP华东基差为50元/吨（-17） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为78.2%（+0.4%），PP开工率为77.3%（+0.7%）；PE油制生产利润为171.7元/吨（+4.6），PP油制生产利润为 - 208.3元/吨（+4.6），PDH制PP生产利润为301.8元/吨（+56.9） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL进口利润为 - 101.2元/吨（+76.3），PP进口利润为 - 672.8元/吨（+0.0），PP出口利润为34.2美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE下游农膜开工率为12.5%（-0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.6%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为41.4%（-0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.8%（+0.2%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - BZ futures maintain a certain premium, with strong downstream demand for pure benzene, leading to a decline in pure benzene port inventory from a high level. High开工 rates of styrene and CPL support demand, and the increase in polymer MDI开工 drives up aniline开工. However, the sustainability of high CPL开工 is questionable due to the decline in PA6 and nylon filament开工. On the supply side, the pressure of South Korean exports to China remains, and domestic开工 is still high, resulting in the continued weak consolidation of pure benzene processing fees. - For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly, and the EB basis is further weakening. Domestically, EB maintains a high开工 rate. In terms of demand, EPS开工 is increasing, but there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS, suppressing their开工 rates. - The recommended trading strategies are to remain on the sidelines for pure benzene, and to sell short styrene at high prices for hedging. For basis and inter - period spreads, conduct reverse hedging for near - month BZ paper goods against distant - end BZ2603 futures at high prices; conduct reverse inter - period spreads for EB2508 - 2509 and EB2509 - 2510. For cross - variety spreads, narrow the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 202 yuan/ton (+4), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 85 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton). The spread between the first - month contract and the third - month contract is also provided in the figures [1][11]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 116 yuan/ton (- 61 yuan/ton), and the inter - period spreads between EB2508 - 2509 and EB2509 - 2510 are recommended for reverse hedging [1][3]. 3.2 Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 160 dollars/ton (+2 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 143 dollars/ton (+2 dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 128.9 dollars/ton (- 24.1 dollars/ton). Downstream production profits include - 1818 yuan/ton (+42) for caprolactam, - 667 yuan/ton (+0) for phenol - acetone, - 97 yuan/ton (+74) for aniline, and - 1428 yuan/ton (- 14) for adipic acid [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 54 yuan/ton (- 87 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. The EB - BZ spread is recommended to be narrowed at high prices [1][3]. 3.3 Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.40 million tons (- 1.00 million tons), and the开工 rate of downstream products such as caprolactam is 91.72% (- 4.00%), phenol is 81.00% (+3.00%), aniline is 75.86% (+4.96%), and adipic acid is 64.80% (- 0.90%) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 138,500 tons (+27,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 45,000 tons (+6,000 tons), and the开工 rate is 78.3% (- 0.9%) [1]. 3.4 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 324 yuan/ton (+119 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 53.18% (+2.12%). - PS production profit is - 126 yuan/ton (+69 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 50.60% (- 0.50%). - ABS production profit is 490 yuan/ton (+77 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 65.90% (+0.90%). The downstream开工 is at a seasonal low [2]. 3.5 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam开工 rate is 91.72% (- 4.00%), and the production profit is - 1818 yuan/ton (+42). - Phenol - acetone开工 rate is 81.00% (+3.00%), and the production profit is - 667 yuan/ton (+0). - Aniline开工 rate is 75.86% (+4.96%), and the production profit is - 97 yuan/ton (+74). - Adipic acid开工 rate is 64.80% (- 0.90%), and the production profit is - 1428 yuan/ton (- 14) [1].

Core Insights - Foreign investors significantly increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities in May, particularly from Canada, indicating resilient demand despite market concerns over the Trump administration's policies [1] - The total amount of U.S. Treasuries held by foreign investors reached $9.05 trillion in May, an increase of $32.4 billion from April, nearly offsetting the previous month's decline [1] - The TIC data reflects the demand for U.S. Treasuries amid ongoing trade tensions and tariff implementations, with over 30% of U.S. debt held by foreign entities [1] Summary by Category Foreign Holdings - Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased by $0.5 billion to $1.135 trillion, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [2] - The United Kingdom's holdings rose by $1.7 billion to $809.4 billion in May [3] - Mainland China's holdings decreased by $0.9 billion to $756.3 billion, continuing a trend of holding below $1 trillion since April 2022 [4] - Canada emerged as a major buyer, increasing its holdings by $61.7 billion to a record high of $430.1 billion [4] Market Dynamics - The TIC data indicates that foreign investors net purchased $318.5 billion in long-term U.S. securities in May, with private foreign investors contributing $287.5 billion [6] - U.S. residents reduced their net purchases of foreign long-term securities by $59.1 billion in May [6] - The overall net inflow of foreign capital into the U.S. in May was $311.1 billion, with private foreign inflows at $333.2 billion and official outflows at $22.1 billion [6]

Group 1 - The concept of "basis" is increasingly discussed and utilized in the cotton textile industry, reflecting the deep integration of cotton futures and the spot market, which is profoundly impacting the industry's development [1] - The cotton spinning industry in China is experiencing a decline in revenue and profit, influenced by regional capacity restructuring and increased competition, as well as complex international conditions and rising tariff barriers [2][3] - The correlation between cotton futures prices and the domestic spot price index CC Index3128B has remained high, with a correlation coefficient above 0.9, indicating a strong relationship between the two markets [3] Group 2 - Cotton enterprises are actively exploring new models of utilizing futures, with companies like Zhongmian Group adopting a resource control model to enhance their operational stability and risk management [4] - Large trading companies are integrating futures tools into their operations, using warehouse receipt pledge financing to support upstream cotton purchases and employing basis trading and options trading to lock in profits and mitigate risks [5] - Small and medium-sized enterprises are adopting flexible strategies to participate in the futures market, often relying on large trading firms for risk management and financing through warehouse receipt pledge financing [6] Group 3 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has expanded its business model to provide new financing tools for cotton textile enterprises, addressing their significant financing needs [6][7] - In 2018, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange launched a comprehensive business platform that allows entities to trade warehouse receipts, catering to diverse procurement and financing needs [7] - The scale of warehouse receipt repurchase business reached 3.9 billion yuan in 2019, with a significant portion attributed to cotton warehouse receipts, indicating a growing reliance on warehouse receipt financing among enterprises [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England warns of a potential forced selling wave in the UK bond market due to high leverage among hedge funds, highlighting the fragility of the market environment and the possible negative implications for Chancellor Rachel Reeves [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Hedge funds are increasingly influential in the UK bond market, with their rapid exit potentially leading to a repeat of the extreme sell-off seen during former Prime Minister Liz Truss's brief tenure [1] - Hedge funds have borrowed a record £77 billion (approximately $105 billion) through UK bond repurchase agreements, adding leverage to relative value strategies, including so-called basis trading [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of England indicates that the economic outlook remains significantly uncertain [1] - Pressure in the sovereign debt market is intensifying [1] - Signs of basis trading have begun to appear in the UK government bond market [1] Group 2 - Hedge funds have recorded net repurchase borrowings reaching a record £77 billion [1] - The Bank of England will release comprehensive market leverage ratio data [1]

Group 1 - The conference focused on global macroeconomic trends, options strategy applications, and the supply-demand outlook for rapeseed and rapeseed meal, attracting over 300 decision-makers from the oilseed industry [1] - Guangxi Yelong International Trade Co., Ltd. plays a leading role in guiding industry chain enterprises to effectively utilize futures and derivatives markets, exploring a new path for high-quality development [1] - The company has adopted futures as a key risk management tool since the launch of rapeseed meal futures in 2012, enabling effective price risk management through hedging and arbitrage strategies [1] Group 2 - Yelong International has shifted from a traditional "one-price" trading model to a basis trading model, reducing operational risks and allowing for synchronized sales and raw material procurement [2] - The annual trading volume of rapeseed meal has increased from 30,000-50,000 tons in the early years to an expected 500,000 tons in 2024, demonstrating significant growth [2] - The successful hosting of the conference has created an efficient platform for communication and collaboration between upstream and downstream enterprises and financial institutions in the rapeseed industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the role of futures in supporting high-quality development within the agricultural sector, particularly through the innovative models adopted by enterprises in the futures market to stabilize operations and enhance supply chain security [1]. Group 1: Company Insights - Yuntu Holdings, a leading compound fertilizer company, has established a comprehensive risk management system that integrates futures trading into its procurement, production, and sales processes, allowing it to stabilize costs and ensure supply during price fluctuations [2][3]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer has seen its urea trading volume increase from 1.2 million tons in 2021 to approximately 2.45 million tons in 2024, demonstrating its proactive approach to risk management through futures [3][4]. - Huailong Group has actively participated in the urea futures market since its launch in 2019, recognizing the importance of futures tools for managing price volatility and enhancing operational efficiency [4][5]. Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - Yuntu Holdings employs a risk management matrix that includes buying hedges to lock in costs, production guidance based on futures prices, and selling hedges to mitigate inventory devaluation risks [3]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer has innovated its business model by utilizing urea options and implementing strategies such as selling options to enhance sales profits and control procurement costs [4]. - Huailong Group has utilized futures to create virtual inventories, effectively managing procurement costs during periods of price fluctuations [5]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration - The article highlights the increasing adoption of basis trading models among enterprises, which not only stabilizes their operations but also supports upstream and downstream partners in managing costs and securing supply [6][7]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer has successfully assisted downstream clients in locking in raw material costs through basis pricing, resulting in significant cost savings [6][7]. - The collaboration among enterprises in the futures market has led to the establishment of a new ecosystem that integrates futures trading with operational strategies, enhancing overall industry resilience [8][10]. Group 4: Future Directions - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange continues to support the development of production and finance bases, aiming to enhance the understanding and utilization of futures among industry players [8][9]. - Yuntu Holdings plans to further promote the application of urea futures and assist clients in designing risk management strategies, fostering long-term cooperative ecosystems [8][10]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer aims to improve service quality by collecting feedback from upstream and downstream enterprises, enhancing the customization of risk management solutions [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain volatile, waiting for a driving force to break through. The macro - level lacks new drivers, and the cost - collapse narrative in the black sector has become less smooth. The market is cautious about demand during the off - season, and there is no strong rebound driver for the black sector. The steel basis still shows a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there is a possibility of the spot price moving towards the futures price during the off - season [4][5]. - The spot market for coking coal and coke is still weak, with the fourth round of price cuts for coke about to be implemented. However, the futures market has strengthened, and the basis has rapidly narrowed. Although the spot market sentiment has improved, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations. It is recommended that industrial customers actively participate in hedging, and ordinary investors wait for the situation to become clear [6]. - The steel tender prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have been determined, and the prices are expected to stabilize in the short term. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is weak, and attention should be paid to the actions of alloy plants due to increased production losses. The supply of silicomanganese has recovered, the demand has weakened, and the price is under pressure but the short - term decline space is limited [7]. - The trend of iron ore has not changed, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. Although the molten iron output has slightly increased, the inventory of steel mills has risen significantly due to increased sea - borne cargo. The iron ore shipment is increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight decline to a slight increase. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, a reduction in steel mill profits is necessary for spontaneous production cuts [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 20, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2985 yuan/ton with a 5 - yuan increase (0.17% increase), HC2601 at 3107 yuan/ton with a 9 - yuan increase (0.29% increase), I2601 at 674 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase (0.60% increase), J2601 at 1411.5 yuan/ton with a 14.5 - yuan increase (1.04% increase), and JM2601 at 821.5 yuan/ton with a 9.5 - yuan increase (1.17% increase). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2992 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan increase (0.23% increase), HC2510 at 3116 yuan/ton with a 12 - yuan increase (0.39% increase), I2509 at 703 yuan/ton with a 6.5 - yuan increase (0.93% increase), J2509 at 1384.5 yuan/ton with a 216.5 - yuan increase (1.21% increase), and JM2509 at 795 yuan/ton with an 8.5 - yuan increase (1.08% increase) [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and profits of futures contracts also showed corresponding changes on June 20. For example, the RB2510 - 2601 spread was 7 yuan/ton with no change, the HC2510 - 2601 spread was 9 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase, the coil - to - rebar spread was 124 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan increase, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.26 with a 0.02 decrease, etc. [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 20, the spot prices of various products also had different changes. For example, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3070 yuan/ton with no change, Tianjin rebar was 3220 yuan/ton with no change, Guangzhou rebar was 3150 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3210 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, etc. [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of various products also changed. For example, the HC main - contract basis was 94 yuan/ton with a 17 - yuan increase, the RB main - contract basis was 78 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan decrease, etc. [2]. Investment Strategies - **Steel**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, conduct rolling hedging and open - position management, and rotate spot inventories. For on - the - disk arbitrage, pay attention to short - term long positions in coking coal and coke. Industrial customers should actively participate in selling hedging [9]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Hold long positions in ferrosilicon and short positions in silicomanganese, and participate in single - side trading through options [9].