Group 1 - The Bank of England indicates that the economic outlook remains significantly uncertain [1] - Pressure in the sovereign debt market is intensifying [1] - Signs of basis trading have begun to appear in the UK government bond market [1] Group 2 - Hedge funds have recorded net repurchase borrowings reaching a record £77 billion [1] - The Bank of England will release comprehensive market leverage ratio data [1]

Group 1 - The conference focused on global macroeconomic trends, options strategy applications, and the supply-demand outlook for rapeseed and rapeseed meal, attracting over 300 decision-makers from the oilseed industry [1] - Guangxi Yelong International Trade Co., Ltd. plays a leading role in guiding industry chain enterprises to effectively utilize futures and derivatives markets, exploring a new path for high-quality development [1] - The company has adopted futures as a key risk management tool since the launch of rapeseed meal futures in 2012, enabling effective price risk management through hedging and arbitrage strategies [1] Group 2 - Yelong International has shifted from a traditional "one-price" trading model to a basis trading model, reducing operational risks and allowing for synchronized sales and raw material procurement [2] - The annual trading volume of rapeseed meal has increased from 30,000-50,000 tons in the early years to an expected 500,000 tons in 2024, demonstrating significant growth [2] - The successful hosting of the conference has created an efficient platform for communication and collaboration between upstream and downstream enterprises and financial institutions in the rapeseed industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the role of futures in supporting high-quality development within the agricultural sector, particularly through the innovative models adopted by enterprises in the futures market to stabilize operations and enhance supply chain security [1]. Group 1: Company Insights - Yuntu Holdings, a leading compound fertilizer company, has established a comprehensive risk management system that integrates futures trading into its procurement, production, and sales processes, allowing it to stabilize costs and ensure supply during price fluctuations [2][3]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer has seen its urea trading volume increase from 1.2 million tons in 2021 to approximately 2.45 million tons in 2024, demonstrating its proactive approach to risk management through futures [3][4]. - Huailong Group has actively participated in the urea futures market since its launch in 2019, recognizing the importance of futures tools for managing price volatility and enhancing operational efficiency [4][5]. Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - Yuntu Holdings employs a risk management matrix that includes buying hedges to lock in costs, production guidance based on futures prices, and selling hedges to mitigate inventory devaluation risks [3]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer has innovated its business model by utilizing urea options and implementing strategies such as selling options to enhance sales profits and control procurement costs [4]. - Huailong Group has utilized futures to create virtual inventories, effectively managing procurement costs during periods of price fluctuations [5]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration - The article highlights the increasing adoption of basis trading models among enterprises, which not only stabilizes their operations but also supports upstream and downstream partners in managing costs and securing supply [6][7]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer has successfully assisted downstream clients in locking in raw material costs through basis pricing, resulting in significant cost savings [6][7]. - The collaboration among enterprises in the futures market has led to the establishment of a new ecosystem that integrates futures trading with operational strategies, enhancing overall industry resilience [8][10]. Group 4: Future Directions - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange continues to support the development of production and finance bases, aiming to enhance the understanding and utilization of futures among industry players [8][9]. - Yuntu Holdings plans to further promote the application of urea futures and assist clients in designing risk management strategies, fostering long-term cooperative ecosystems [8][10]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer aims to improve service quality by collecting feedback from upstream and downstream enterprises, enhancing the customization of risk management solutions [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain volatile, waiting for a driving force to break through. The macro - level lacks new drivers, and the cost - collapse narrative in the black sector has become less smooth. The market is cautious about demand during the off - season, and there is no strong rebound driver for the black sector. The steel basis still shows a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there is a possibility of the spot price moving towards the futures price during the off - season [4][5]. - The spot market for coking coal and coke is still weak, with the fourth round of price cuts for coke about to be implemented. However, the futures market has strengthened, and the basis has rapidly narrowed. Although the spot market sentiment has improved, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations. It is recommended that industrial customers actively participate in hedging, and ordinary investors wait for the situation to become clear [6]. - The steel tender prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have been determined, and the prices are expected to stabilize in the short term. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is weak, and attention should be paid to the actions of alloy plants due to increased production losses. The supply of silicomanganese has recovered, the demand has weakened, and the price is under pressure but the short - term decline space is limited [7]. - The trend of iron ore has not changed, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. Although the molten iron output has slightly increased, the inventory of steel mills has risen significantly due to increased sea - borne cargo. The iron ore shipment is increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight decline to a slight increase. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, a reduction in steel mill profits is necessary for spontaneous production cuts [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 20, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2985 yuan/ton with a 5 - yuan increase (0.17% increase), HC2601 at 3107 yuan/ton with a 9 - yuan increase (0.29% increase), I2601 at 674 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase (0.60% increase), J2601 at 1411.5 yuan/ton with a 14.5 - yuan increase (1.04% increase), and JM2601 at 821.5 yuan/ton with a 9.5 - yuan increase (1.17% increase). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2992 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan increase (0.23% increase), HC2510 at 3116 yuan/ton with a 12 - yuan increase (0.39% increase), I2509 at 703 yuan/ton with a 6.5 - yuan increase (0.93% increase), J2509 at 1384.5 yuan/ton with a 216.5 - yuan increase (1.21% increase), and JM2509 at 795 yuan/ton with an 8.5 - yuan increase (1.08% increase) [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and profits of futures contracts also showed corresponding changes on June 20. For example, the RB2510 - 2601 spread was 7 yuan/ton with no change, the HC2510 - 2601 spread was 9 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase, the coil - to - rebar spread was 124 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan increase, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.26 with a 0.02 decrease, etc. [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 20, the spot prices of various products also had different changes. For example, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3070 yuan/ton with no change, Tianjin rebar was 3220 yuan/ton with no change, Guangzhou rebar was 3150 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3210 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, etc. [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of various products also changed. For example, the HC main - contract basis was 94 yuan/ton with a 17 - yuan increase, the RB main - contract basis was 78 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan decrease, etc. [2]. Investment Strategies - **Steel**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, conduct rolling hedging and open - position management, and rotate spot inventories. For on - the - disk arbitrage, pay attention to short - term long positions in coking coal and coke. Industrial customers should actively participate in selling hedging [9]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Hold long positions in ferrosilicon and short positions in silicomanganese, and participate in single - side trading through options [9].

Core Viewpoint - The low inventory levels in the asphalt market have prompted traders to utilize futures tools for risk management, indicating a bullish market outlook despite low production and demand constraints [1][2]. Inventory Levels - As of December 2024, winter storage of asphalt is at 850,000 tons, marking a multi-year low. Both social and factory inventories remain at historically low levels, limiting production release due to low profit margins and operating rates [2]. - The winter storage price of 3,420 CNY/ton is aligned with the cost price of 3,450 CNY/ton for resources in Q1 2025, suggesting limited downside for prices unless there is a significant drop in crude oil prices [2]. Price Comparison and Valuation - The current valuation of asphalt futures relative to Brent crude oil is at 0.9, which is considered reasonable based on historical low inventory scenarios from 2018 and 2022 [2]. - The basis for buying hedges was 50 CNY/ton, with historical data indicating that even during low inventory periods, the basis could fall below -200 CNY/ton in Q1 [2]. Trading Operations - On December 12, 2024, a company bought 2,000 contracts of March asphalt futures at 3,510 CNY/ton, with a current spot price of 3,560 CNY/ton, resulting in a basis of 50 CNY/ton [3]. - By early February 2025, the basis weakened to -197 CNY/ton, with futures rising to 3,797 CNY/ton and spot prices increasing to 3,600 CNY/ton. The company closed its futures position and procured products from the spot market [3][4]. Profit and Loss Analysis - The company realized a profit of 5,740,000 CNY from the futures market, while incurring a loss of 800,000 CNY from the spot market, effectively covering the losses with the gains from the futures [3][4]. Significance - The company's strategic market analysis and strong operational capabilities in the futures market allowed it to mitigate price risks, enhance competitiveness, and stabilize operations, serving as a valuable reference for the asphalt industry and beyond [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a trading range, and it is advisable to seize hedging opportunities at the upper limit of the range. The rebound height of finished steel is relatively limited, and the market will enter a period of tug - of - war. It is recommended to use the volatile market to rotate inventory for spot goods [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the decline in coking coal auctions has slowed down, and the futures are at a premium to the spot. The market is in a state of indecision. Industrial customers can actively participate in selling hedging, while single - side trading can wait for a clearer situation. In the medium - to - long - term, the bottom of coking coal has not been confirmed [6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are stable and follow the steel market. Their prices are expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel tenders [7]. - For iron ore, the overall weak trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market Data** - On June 16, 2025, for far - month contracts (RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, JM2601), the closing prices were 2985.00 yuan/ton, 3101.00 yuan/ton, 675.00 yuan/ton, 1392.50 yuan/ton, and 810.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.78%, 1.04%, 0.52%, 2.35%, and 3.05%. For near - month contracts (RB2510, HC2510, I2509, J2509, JM2509), the closing prices were 2990.00 yuan/ton, 3104.00 yuan/ton, 704.50 yuan/ton, 1371.00 yuan/ton, and 795.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.98%, 1.07%, 0.21%, 1.90%, and 2.84% [3]. - On June 16, 2025, the cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, spot prices, and basis data for various varieties were also provided, along with their changes [3]. **Steel Market** - On Monday, the spot and futures prices rebounded slightly, but the willingness to sell spot goods increased, and the price rebound was hesitant. Overseas, the Iran situation may have an indirect impact on the coal market in the capital market, but its influence on the spot market is weak. Domestically, the steel spot market remains in a state of weak supply and demand. The US tariff increase on steel - based household appliances and the suspension of domestic home appliance national subsidy policies have increased the supply - demand pressure in the hot - rolled coil market. It is recommended to hedge at the upper limit of the range and rotate inventory for spot goods [5]. **Coking Coal and Coke Market** - In the spot market, the decline in coking coal auctions has slowed down, and port prices are weak. In the futures market, the black chain index has strengthened, and coking coal led the rise. Macroscopically, domestic policies are mainly for bottom - support, and overseas disturbances are numerous. Industrially, steel demand is seasonally weak, and steel production has decreased. Coking coal inventories at the mine mouth continue to accumulate, but supply is affected by safety and environmental issues. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and industrial customers can participate in selling hedging [6]. **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market** - For ferrosilicon, production has decreased slightly, but direct demand has weakened, and cost support has declined. For silicomanganese, supply has increased from a low level, demand has weakened, and cost support has also weakened. Their prices are expected to be under pressure [7]. **Iron Ore Market** - The overall weak trend of iron ore remains unchanged. Ore shipments are gradually increasing, and port inventories have shifted from a slight decline to a slight increase. The black market is entering the off - season, and downstream pressure is intensifying. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [8]. **Investment Strategies** - For steel, maintain a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging and open - position management, and rotate inventory for spot goods. For coking coal and coke, industrial customers should actively participate in selling hedging. For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, buy put options at high prices [9].

Core Insights - The significant increase in positions for the September 2025 Federal Funds futures and one-month SOFR futures indicates active basis trading in the market [1] - On Thursday, May 29, there was a notable buying activity in the basis trading volume for near-month contracts [1] - A court ruling that blocked certain import tariffs imposed by President Trump has contributed to a decrease in risk exposure for U.S. Treasury futures when adjusted for roll [1]

Report Summary - The settlement price of the rebar 2505 contract was 3066 yuan/ton, at a discount to the spot price, mainly due to weak demand and continuous profits at the production end [2][4]. - The settlement price of the hot - rolled coil 2505 contract was 3262 yuan/ton, also at a discount to the spot price, with the basis at a medium - historical level. The seller's position was more concentrated, and the production enterprises were the leading force in delivery [2][18]. Rebar 2505 Contract Settlement Summary Settlement Price and Basis - The rebar 2505 contract settlement price was 3066 yuan/ton, at a discount of 124 and 218 yuan/ton to Shanghai and Tianjin spot prices respectively. Weak demand and production - end profits led to short - selling in the futures market. The real - estate demand contraction affected terminal consumption, and there was hedging motivation due to good steel mill profits [2][4]. Settlement Volume and Position Changes - The total settlement volume was 57,300 tons, lower than expected and down from the previous year, at a moderately high level in recent years. The impact on the market was expected to be limited. Buyers were willing to take delivery due to low inventory and a strong basis, but their positions were scattered. Sellers were mainly production and trading enterprises for hedging and basis trading [6]. Inter - delivery Strategy Summary - The rebar 5 - 10 spread remained low and stable, dragged down by real - estate demand. The 3 - month high - frequency data showed a large year - on - year decline in weekly demand. By May 15, the 5 - 10 spread was - 43 yuan/ton. Low inventory reduced delivery pressure, and arbitrage drove the transfer of warehouse receipts to the spot market, affecting the near - month contract price and the inter - delivery spread [14]. Hot - Rolled Coil 2505 Contract Settlement Summary Settlement Price and Spot Basis - The hot - rolled coil 2505 contract settlement price was 3262 yuan/ton, at a discount of 18 and 68 yuan/ton to Shanghai and Tianjin spot prices respectively. The basis was at a medium - historical level. The seller's position was more concentrated, and the production enterprises were the leading force in delivery due to the phased premium structure, high production, and export expectation disturbances [18]. Settlement Volume and Position Changes - The settlement volume of the hot - rolled coil HC2505 contract was 155,100 tons, an obvious increase from the HC2405 contract, still at a moderately high level in the past 10 years. The delivery warehouse receipts were mainly concentrated in Jiangsu [22]. Inter - delivery Strategy Summary - The hot - rolled coil 5 - 10 spread showed a reverse - arbitrage structure. High production, trade - war - induced contraction in the cold - hot spread, and expectations of export and domestic - demand contraction led to the far - month contract being stronger. After entering the delivery month, positive Sino - US negotiations led to a small repair of the 5 - 10 spread, but it remained at a low level in recent years [30].

Group 1 - The recent significant fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields were primarily triggered by unexpected tariff policies announced by President Trump, leading to a sharp decline and subsequent rise in yields over three distinct phases from March 28 to April 24 [1][20][15] - The first phase saw a decline in yields due to concerns over a potential global economic recession, with 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields dropping by 29 basis points (bps) and 37 bps respectively [20] - The second phase experienced a rapid increase in yields, with 2Y yields rising by 28 bps and 10Y and 30Y yields increasing by 47 bps and 44 bps respectively, marking the largest weekly increases since the tech bubble burst in 2001 and the economic crisis in 1982 [20][15] Group 2 - The recent auction of new U.S. Treasuries faced weak demand, with the 3-year Treasury auction showing the highest tailing spread since the pandemic and the lowest bid-to-cover ratio in nearly three years, raising concerns about demand and liquidity [2][26] - Hedge funds faced significant pressure to close basis trades, leading to substantial selling pressure in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, as the volatility in Treasury futures prices forced traders to liquidate positions [3][29] - Confidence in U.S. dollar assets as a safe haven was undermined, resulting in a simultaneous decline in U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, while non-U.S. assets like Japanese and European bonds, as well as gold, benefited from this shift [4][33] Group 3 - Historical analysis shows that since 2007, there have been six significant fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, with the first two linked to crises that drove investors to seek safety in Treasuries, resulting in substantial declines in yields [5][40] - The most recent fluctuations in 2020 and 2023 exhibited a similar pattern of initial declines followed by increases, influenced by liquidity crises and strong economic data [5][40] Group 4 - Short-term outlook for U.S. Treasury yields indicates narrow fluctuations with high market vulnerability due to multiple factors, including uncertainties surrounding tariff negotiations and the potential for further volatility in financial markets [6][46] - The medium to long-term outlook suggests a return to a downward trend in yields, contingent on easing tariff uncertainties and a potential resumption of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, although concerns over debt sustainability and geopolitical tensions may elevate yield volatility [10][11]

王爷说财经讯：特朗普宣布对等关税后，29万亿美元的美债市场一度差点崩溃！ 为什么会这样？到底发生了什么？美联储官员揪出"幕后凶手"！一起来看看！ 5月12日消息，美国总统——特朗普宣布对等关税后，导致4 月美国29万亿美元的美债市场剧烈波动，30年期美债利率创下1987年来以来最大单周涨幅，那 么为何会这样？ 对此，就在最近，美联储官员、美联储（FED）公开市场操作帐户（SOMA）经理—— 佩里（Roberto Perli）警告，美债近期掀起风暴，与掉期利差有关的 大型杠杆交易（swap-spread trade）突然平仓有关。 众所周知，美国总统——特朗普4 月2 日对多数贸易伙伴宣布征收对等关税，金融市场掀起避险潮，资金涌入美债，但几天后美债利率反转向上，30年期美 债利率一周内暴涨近50个基点，利率来到4.84%，创下1987年以来单周最大涨幅，市场一度掀起美债抛售潮。 对此，美国金融媒体——《市场观察》（Market watch）报道，佩里在一场美联储会议中表示， 造成美债市场动荡的主因，并非市场猜测的基差交易 (basis trade)平仓，可能与掉期利差交易失控有关。 佩里解释称，原本许多杠杆投资 ...