Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - A shares and stock index futures rose collectively this week, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The domestic manufacturing PMI in May slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction range, and the economic fundamentals were still weak. The extension of the exemption period for the 301 investigation by the US and the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents released positive signals for the relaxation of trade relations [9][14]. - This week, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds declined by about 0.5bp. Treasury bond futures rose collectively. The bond market is driven by capital and fundamentals, and it is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern [9]. - The commodity market strengthened due to the improvement in import and export expectations, but the subsequent upward momentum needs to be observed. The US economic data weakened comprehensively, the dollar index was volatile and weak, the eurozone cut interest rates, and the euro was boosted by the weakening of the dollar [9]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.88%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 0.91%. A - share major indexes rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index rising more than 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively, and small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks, with the ranking of gains being IM>IC>IF>IH. The domestic manufacturing PMI in May slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction range, and the economic fundamentals were still weak. The market trading activity rebounded significantly compared with last week. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9]. Bonds - The yield of treasury bond cash bonds weakened this week. The yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds declined by about 0.5bp to 1.66% and 1.88% respectively. Treasury bond futures rose collectively. The TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rose 0.10%, 0.27%, 0.45%, and 1.09% respectively. The bond market is driven by capital and fundamentals, and it is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose 1.46%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose 1.55%. In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points. The new export order index and import index increased by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points respectively. After the easing of the Sino - US tariff dispute, the import and export situation improved, and the commodity market strengthened, but the subsequent upward momentum needs to be observed. The allocation suggestion is to short on rallies [9]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar rose 0.77%, and the euro against the US dollar 2506 contract rose 0.65%. The US economic data weakened comprehensively, the employment market faced downward risks, and the debt problem continued to suppress. The dollar index was volatile and weak. The eurozone cut interest rates by 25bps as expected, the inflation data continued to slow down, and the fiscal expansion plan provided support. The euro was mainly boosted by the weakening of the dollar. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9] 2. Important News and Events - Domestic news includes the implementation of the "Government Data Sharing Regulations", the President's important article on accelerating the construction of an education power, the pilot work on the integration of the human resources service industry and the manufacturing industry, and the participation of the Minister of Commerce in the WTO small - scale ministerial meeting [16]. - International news includes the US raising the import steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, the pessimistic US economic outlook shown in the Fed's "Beige Book", the OECD lowering the US and global economic growth forecasts, and the number of new jobs created by US enterprises hitting a two - year low [18]. 3. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - US economic data: The US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the April factory orders month - on - month rate was - 3.7%, the May ADP employment was 3.7 million, the initial jobless claims for the week ended May 31 were 24.7 million, and the April trade balance was - 61.6 billion US dollars [19]. - EU economic data: The eurozone May manufacturing PMI final value was 49.4, the May CPI annual rate initial value was 1.9%, the April unemployment rate was 6.2%, the April PPI month - on - month rate was - 2.2%, and the European Central Bank deposit mechanism interest rate as of June 5 was 2% [19]. - Other countries' economic data: The UK May manufacturing PMI final value was 46.4, and，the German May manufacturing PMI final value was 48.3, the French May manufacturing PMI final value was 49.8 [19]. 4. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week's important economic indicators include China's May export and import annual rates in US dollars, the CPI annual rate, the UK's May unemployment rate, the US's May unadjusted CPI and core CPI annual rates, etc. [86]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The week includes significant economic data releases such as the US non-farm payrolls and PMI figures for various regions [1][2] - Key Point 2: Major events include speeches from Federal Reserve officials and central bank meetings in Australia and Europe [1][2] - Key Point 3: Earnings reports from companies like NIO and Broadcom are scheduled, indicating potential market movements [1][2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Data releases on manufacturing and service PMIs from China, Europe, and the US are crucial for assessing economic health [2][3] - Key Point 2: The European Central Bank and Bank of Canada are set to announce interest rate decisions, impacting monetary policy outlooks [2] - Key Point 3: The week also features various economic indicators such as unemployment rates and GDP figures, which are essential for investment analysis [2][3]

Group 1: Market Data Summary Gold - Shanghai gold futures: On April 28, 2025, the closing price was 780.04, down 7.16 from the previous day and 51.38 from the previous week. The trading volume was 543,425, down 119,247 from the previous day and 329,155 from the previous week. The open interest was 204,671, down 53,099 from the previous week. The inventory was 15,648 kg, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 kg from the previous week [1]. - Shanghai gold spot (Au T+D): The closing price was 778.22 yuan/gram, down 6.71 from the previous day and 48.45 from the previous week. The trading volume was 68,346, up 3,326 from the previous day and down 56,122 from the previous week. The open interest was 217,932, down 7,262 from the previous day and 7,380 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX gold futures: The closing price was 3,354.80, up 24.60 from the previous day and 13.50 from the previous week. The trading volume was 215,264, down 19,751 from the previous day and 20,095 from the previous week. The open interest was 324,294, down 3,356 from the previous day and 29,345 from the previous week. The inventory was 41,705,859.42 troy ounces, unchanged from the previous day and down 1,503,863.55 from the previous week [1]. - London gold spot: The price was 3,277.30 dollars/ounce, unchanged from the previous day and down 28.35 from the previous week [1]. Silver - Shanghai silver futures: The closing price was 8,168.00 yuan/ten grams, down 112.00 from the previous day and 6.00 from the previous week. The trading volume was 642,831, up 4,704 from the previous day and down 308,586 from the previous week. The open interest was 280,886, down 31,364 from the previous day and 58,707 from the previous week. The inventory was 934,421 ten - gram units, up 10,825 from the previous day and 10,693 from the previous week [1]. - Shanghai silver spot (Ag T+D): The closing price was 8,173.00 yuan/ten grams, down 97.00 from the previous day and up 19.00 from the previous week. The trading volume was 471,636, up 50,462 from the previous day and down 307,232 from the previous week. The open interest was 3,578,110, up 4,070 from the previous day and down 104,152 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX silver futures: The closing price was 33.08 dollars/ounce, up 0.05 from the previous day and 0.53 from the previous week. The trading volume was 38,136, down 13,986 from the previous day and 11,451 from the previous week. The open interest was 27,404, down 6,748 from the previous day and 28,611 from the previous week. The inventory was 499,103,540.55 troy ounces, up 1,195,298.48 from the previous week [1]. - London silver spot: The price was 32.31 dollars/ounce, up 1.03 from the previous week [1]. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - Gold - to - silver price ratios: Shanghai gold futures/Shanghai silver futures was 95.07, down 6.22 from the previous week; Shanghai gold spot/Shanghai silver spot was 95.22, down 6.16 from the previous week; New York gold futures/New York silver futures was 101.43, down 1.24 from the previous week; London gold spot/London silver spot was 98.31, down 4.00 from the previous week [1]. - Other commodities: INE crude oil was 498.00 yuan/barrel, up 1.90 from the previous day and 15.30 from the previous week; ICE Brent crude was 64.53 dollars/barrel, down 1.30 from the previous day and 3.32 from the previous week; NYMEX crude was 61.89 dollars/barrel, down 1.28 from the previous day and 1.86 from the previous week; Shanghai copper futures was 77,580.00 yuan/ton, up 140.00 from the previous day and 460.00 from the previous week; LME copper spot was 9,360.00 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 9.00 from the previous week; Shanghai rebar was 3,101.00 yuan/ton, up 28.00 from the previous day and 54.00 from the previous week; Dalian iron ore was 709.00 yuan/ton, up 1.50 from the previous day and down 0.50 from the previous week [1]. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Indices - Interest rates: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.60%, up 0.04 from the previous day and down 0.11 from the previous week; SHIBOR one - year was 1.77%, unchanged. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.2300%, down 0.06 from the previous day and 0.11 from the previous week; the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.9800%, down 0.04 from the previous day and 0.13 from the previous week; the US 10 - year Treasury breakeven inflation rate was 2.2500%, down 0.02 from the previous day and up 0.02 from the previous week [1]. - Exchange rates: The US dollar index was 98.9357, down 0.65 from the previous day and 0.49 from the previous week; the US dollar - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.2043, unchanged; the euro - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 8.2125, down 0.01 from the previous day and 0.11 from the previous week [1]. - Stock indices: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,288.4147, down 6.65 from the previous day and 11.34 from the previous week; the S&P 500 was 5,528.7500, up 3.54 from the previous day and 246.05 from the previous week; the UK FTSE 100 was 8,417.3400, up 2.09 from the previous day and 141.68 from the previous week; the French CAC40 was 7,573.7600, up 37.50 from the previous day and 287.90 from the previous week; the German DAX was 22,271.6700, up 29.22 from the previous day and 1,065.81 from the previous week; the Nikkei 225 was 35,839.9900, up 134.25 from the previous day and 1,462.39 from the previous week; the South Korean Composite Index was 2,548.8600, up 2.56 from the previous day and 78.45 from the previous week [1]. Group 2: Important Information Gold - The US Treasury's Q2 borrowing expectation was significantly raised by over three times, but after excluding the debt - ceiling impact, it decreased. Bessemer has a new bond - issuing strategy: stable short - term bonds, slow long - term bonds, and close attention to stablecoins [1]. - The US Dallas Fed's business activity index in April was - 35.8, lower than the expected - 14.1 and the previous value of - 16.3 [1]. Silver - The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. On April 10, an agreement on the budget resolution was reached, including a 5.3 - trillion - dollar tax cut over the next decade, a 5 - billion - dollar increase in the debt ceiling, and a 4 - billion - dollar reduction in government spending. The US Treasury's Q2 borrowing was 51.4 billion dollars, three times higher than expected, but after excluding the debt - ceiling impact, the borrowing demand was lower than expected. The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted that the Treasury's funds might be exhausted as early as October, which could slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The US may reduce the tariff levels on China and other countries, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in June, September, October, or December [1]. Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, reducing the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. The manufacturing PMIs in the eurozone, Germany, and France in April were 48.7, 48, and 48.2 respectively, higher than expected but lower than the previous values. The annual CPI rates in the eurozone and Germany in August were 2.2% and 2.3% respectively, lower than expected and the previous values. European Central Bank economists predicted a neutral interest rate of 1.75 - 2.25%, suggesting that the ECB may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England kept the key interest rate at 4.5% in March and continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The annual CPI (core CPI) rates in the UK in February were 2.8% (below 3.5%), lower than expected and the previous values. The S&P Global PMI for manufacturing and services in April was 44 and 48.95 respectively, lower than expected and the previous values. The GDP growth rate in January was - 0.1%, lower than expected and the previous value, increasing the expectation of a rate cut in May and potentially 2 - 3 more rate cuts before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark rate to 0.5%. It has been reducing the quarterly government - bond purchase scale by 400 billion yen since August 2024. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru plans to coordinate a 2025 supplementary budget to distribute a 50,000 - yen subsidy per person (with a total scale of nearly 10 trillion yen) and a 2 - trillion - yen tax cut on daily necessities. The annual CPI rates in Tokyo in March and April were 3.6% and 3.5% respectively (lower and higher than expected and the previous values). The largest Japanese labor union, Rengo, achieved an average salary increase of 5.46%. Some Bank of Japan officials hope to raise interest rates to 1% in the second or third quarter, leading to market expectations of a rate hike around July [1]. Group 3: Core View and Trading Strategy - Due to the expectations of interest - rate cuts and fiscal easing by central banks in multiple countries, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, precious - metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,150 - 3,250 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 750 - 770 and the resistance level around 850 - 900. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 and the resistance level around 35 - 36. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 7,400 - 7,800/8,000 and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Global central banks' expectations of interest rate cuts and fiscal easing, along with continuous gold purchases by central banks and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. London gold should focus on support levels around $3150 - 3250 and resistance levels around $3500 - 3700; Shanghai gold should focus on support levels around 750 - 770 and resistance levels around 850 - 900; London silver should focus on support levels around $28 - 30 and resistance levels around $35 - 36; Shanghai silver should focus on support levels around 7400 - 7800/8000 and resistance levels around 8600 - 8900 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Data**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 793.25 yuan/gram, down 8.32 yuan; trading volume was 65020, and open interest was 232308. COMEX gold futures' closing price was $3357.70 per ounce, down $31.10; trading volume was 234897, and open interest was 327650. London gold spot price was $3322.90 per ounce, down $37.45. SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 946.27 tons, down 10.90 tons; iShare Gold ETF holdings were 431.10 tons, up 4.14 tons [1] - **Important News**: Trump said that 200 agreements had been negotiated, the US - Philippines agreement was "very close", and it was unlikely that tariffs would be postponed for another 90 days. The Trump administration planned to hold talks with 18 trading partners under a new framework for simplified negotiations until July 8. There was a small - scale exchange of fire between India and Pakistan near the Line of Control in Kashmir on Thursday night, and the Pakistani defense minister issued a "full - scale war" warning [1] Silver - **Market Data**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8270 yuan/ten grams, down 25 yuan; trading volume was - 460823, and open interest was 312250. COMEX silver futures' closing price was $33.02 per ounce, down $0.53; trading volume was 52122, and open interest was 34152. London silver spot price was $33.34 per ounce, up $0.38. US iShare Silver ETF holdings were 13956.01 tons, down 147.11 tons; Canadian PSLV Silver ETF holdings were 5807.39 tons [1] - **Important News**: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, reaching an agreement on the budget resolution on April 10, including tax cuts of $5.3 trillion over the next decade and an increase in the debt ceiling of $5 trillion in exchange for government spending cuts of $4 billion [1] Central Bank Policies - **European Central Bank**: Cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. Eurozone and German - French manufacturing PMIs in April were 48.7/48/48.2, higher than expected but lower than the previous value. Eurozone and German consumer price index (CPI) annual rates in August were 2.2% and 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. Economists predicted that the European Central Bank might cut interest rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - **Bank of England**: Kept the key interest rate at 4.5% in March, continuing to reduce government bond holdings of £100 billion from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK's consumer price index (core CPI) annual rates in February were 2.8% (3.5%), lower than expected and the previous value. The SPGI manufacturing and services PMIs in April were 44/48.957, lower than expected and the previous value, and the GDP monthly rate in April was - 0.1%, lower than expected and the previous value. The market expected the Bank of England to cut interest rates in May and might cut interest rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - **Bank of Japan**: Raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, and started to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale by 400 billion yen in August 2024. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru planned to coordinate the 2025 supplementary budget to distribute subsidies of 50,000 yen per person (the total scale may be close to 10 trillion yen) and cut taxes on daily necessities by 2 trillion yen. Japan's (Tokyo) consumer price index (CPI) annual rates in March (April) were 3.6% (3.5%), lower than expected and the previous value (higher than expected and the previous value). The largest labor union in Japan, Rengo, achieved an average salary increase of 5.46%. Some Bank of Japan officials hoped to raise interest rates to 1% in the second and third quarters, and the market expected the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates around July [1] Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 493.40 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was $65.83 per barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was $62.77 per barrel [1] - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 77440 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was $9392.50 per ton, Shanghai rebar was 3106 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 709 yuan/ton [1] - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.57%, SHIBOR one - year was 1.77%. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.3200%, the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.0200%, and the US 10 - year Treasury breakeven inflation rate was 2.2700% [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.2667, the US dollar - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.2055, and the euro - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 8.2124 [1] - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3297.2881, the S&P 500 was 5525.2100, the UK FTSE 100 was 8415.2500, the French CAC40 was 7329.9700, the German DAX was 22242.4500, the Nikkei 225 was 35705.7400, and the South Korean Composite Index was 2522.3300 [1]