Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core View The Fed Chairman Powell signaled a potential September rate cut due to weakening employment supply - demand. Coupled with Trump's continuous pressure to replace Fed officials and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise and fall less easily. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Data**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 781.16 yuan/g on August 28, 2025, up 0.04 yuan from the previous day and 6.04 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 135,834, and open interest was 166,596. The basis (spot - futures) was - 3.54 yuan [1]. - **Important Information**: The US Treasury Secretary said he never heard Fed Governor Cook deny the accusations. Trump's economic advisor pressured Cook to take leave during the lawsuit. New York Fed President Williams said every meeting is a substantial meeting for possible action [1]. Silver - **Market Data**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 9,305 yuan/10g on August 28, 2025, down 49 yuan from the previous day. Trading volume was 268,955, and open interest was 280,655. The basis (spot - futures) was - 44 yuan [1]. - **Important Information**: Import tariffs pushed up US production - end inflation (PPI) and consumer - end inflation (core CPI) in July. Fed Chairman Powell mentioned a possible policy adjustment due to weak employment supply - demand, increasing the expectation of a September rate cut [1]. Global Central Bank Policies - **European Central Bank**: It paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. Eurozone (Germany) July CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), and the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: It cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August. It may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. Given the economic data, it may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: It kept the benchmark rate at 0.5% in July and will reduce quarterly bond purchases from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [1]. Other Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 479.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent oil was 67.20 US dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 63.86 US dollars/barrel [1]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,800.35, the S&P 500 was 6,411.37, and the UK FTSE 100 was 9,255.50 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - 8 - 10 months are in a headwind period for the bond market, with current sentiment weaker than in March. Short - term advice is to observe more and trade less, and take profit and adjust positions when there is a yield decline window. Mid - term is an adjustment rather than a reversal, so pay attention to opportunities arising from declines [7][10][107]. - Currently, the safety cushion of bank wealth management still exists. In the short term, redemptions may be a small - scale redemption wave at the fund level. If the yield rises to 1.9%, pay attention to the redemption pressure of wealth management [7][10][107]. - The 30 - 10y spread has reached a new high since 2024. Considering the positive effects of the insurance predetermined interest rate cut and "rush to stop sales", gradually allocate during adjustments when the 10y Treasury bond approaches 1.8% and the 30 - 10y spread is around 30bp [7][10][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 7 - month Central Bank Balance Sheet and Custody Volume Interpretation 3.1.1 July 2025 Central Bank Balance Sheet Changes - The central bank's balance sheet scale increased from 45.8 trillion yuan to 45.9 trillion yuan, up 16.7 billion yuan. The main increase on the asset side was "claims on other depository corporations", and on the liability side, it was "government deposits", while the main decrease was "deposits of other depository corporations" [15]. - On the asset side, the "claims on other depository corporations" were close to the open - market投放 scale, showing positive liquidity support. The PSL balance has been rapidly decreasing since the beginning of the year, and attention should be paid to the restart of policy - related financial tools. The "claims on the central government" continued to shrink due to the maturity of short - term Treasury bonds [17][18][20]. - On the liability side, due to the large tax - payment month and increased supply, government deposit increments reached a seasonal high. Bank system funds flowed to fiscal deposits, causing the "deposits of other depository corporations" to decline seasonally [23][28]. 3.1.2 Impact of July 2025 Central Bank Operations on Custody Volume - In July, the central bank conducted 1.4 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 20 billion yuan. Treasury bond trading remained suspended [32]. - The scale of innovative tools was consistent with the change in the custody volume account. The main incremental varieties were local government bonds and policy - bank bonds, and the main reduction item was Treasury bonds [33]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio: After the Quarter - end, the Funding Situation Eased, and Institutional Leverage Declined Seasonally - In July, after the quarter - end, the funding situation eased, and the average monthly leverage ratio declined seasonally to 107.6%. The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased to 7.6 trillion yuan, and the average bond - market leverage ratio decreased from 107.8% to 107.6% [38]. 3.3 By Institution: Allocation - Oriented Investors Increased Positions on Highs, Redemption Drove Funds to Sell Bonds, and Wealth Management Had a Big Bond - Allocation Month 3.3.1 Banks: Large Banks Set a New Monthly Bond - Allocation High, and Rural Commercial Banks Bought 7 - 10y Bonds on Highs - As of July 2025, commercial banks mainly held local government bonds, Treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds. In July, they mainly increased positions in interest - rate bonds and reduced positions in certificates of deposit [44][46]. - Large banks' bond - investment scale reached a new high in July. In the primary market, government - bond supply advanced seasonally, and in the secondary market, regulatory pressure eased, and they mainly bought short - term Treasury bonds and certificates of deposit [50]. - Rural commercial banks bought 7 - 10y interest - rate bonds on highs in July. Since mid - August, their bond - buying scale increased again, but their willingness to allocate below 1.75% weakened [54][56]. 3.3.2 Insurance: Bond - Allocation Sentiment Was Good Since July, and Attention Should Be Paid to Structural Opportunities from the Predetermined Interest Rate Cut - As of July 2025, insurance companies mainly held local government bonds, credit bonds, and Treasury bonds. They increased positions in local government bonds and certificates of deposit in July [59][60]. - The predetermined interest rate of insurance products will be officially lowered in September. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the 30 - 10y spread, and gradually allocate during adjustments [67]. 3.3.3 General Funds: Redemption Pressure Drove Funds to Sell Bonds, and Wealth Management Had a Seasonal Bond - Allocation Month - As of July 2025, general funds mainly held credit bonds, certificates of deposit, and policy - bank bonds. In July, they increased positions in credit bonds and reduced positions in interest - rate bonds [69][74]. - Funds faced increased redemption pressure in July and mainly sold 7 - 10y Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and certificates of deposit. After August 18, the redemption wave restarted, and historically, the 10y Treasury bond usually peaked within 5 trading days after the start of redemptions [79]. - Bank wealth management had a bond - allocation month driven by liabilities, but some "front - running" behaviors overdrew the seasonal bond - allocation demand [81]. 3.3.4 Foreign Investors: The Comprehensive Yield of Investing in Certificates of Deposit Decreased, and the Net Outflow Speed Accelerated - As of July 2025, foreign institutions mainly held Treasury bonds, certificates of deposit, and policy - bank bonds. In July, they mainly reduced positions in certificates of deposit, Treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds [85][92]. 3.4 By Bond Type: The Main Support for the Increment of Bond - Market Custody Volume Was Government Bonds, and the Main Reduction Item Was Certificates of Deposit - In July, the increment of the bond - market custody volume increased, with government bonds as the main support and certificates of deposit as the main reduction item. The net financing scale of interest - rate bonds decreased from 1.7067 trillion yuan to 1.5334 trillion yuan [94][99]. - For Treasury bonds, the issuance scale decreased, and the net financing scale declined. For local government bonds, the issuance scale increased, and the net financing scale increased. For policy - bank bonds, the supply rhythm was relatively stable, and the net financing scale changed little [99][100]. - For certificates of deposit, after the quarter - end, the funding situation was loose, and bank liability pressure was limited, resulting in negative net financing [104].

Core Viewpoint - Gold is viewed as a stable asset and a safe haven, especially during periods of economic uncertainty, with its market influenced by global economic changes, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Global Economic Uncertainty - Increasing global economic uncertainty has led to a rise in demand for gold as a safe haven, particularly during signs of financial crises or economic recessions [3]. - Geopolitical risks, such as conflicts in the Middle East and trade tensions between the US and Europe, significantly affect gold price fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis of the Gold Market - Technical analysis reveals patterns in gold price movements, identifying key support and resistance levels that influence market behavior [4]. - Indicators such as trend lines and moving averages are essential tools for investors to assess overall market trends and short-term trading opportunities [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Policies and Gold Market - Central bank monetary policies, especially decisions by major banks like the Federal Reserve, directly impact the attractiveness of gold as an investment [7]. - Changes in central bank gold reserves reflect confidence in gold, with purchases by central banks potentially driving short-term price increases [7]. Group 4: Investment Decision-Making in Gold Market - Investors should adjust their strategies based on market trends, considering the implications of global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks on gold prices [8]. - The volatility of gold prices necessitates that investors tailor their investment plans according to their risk tolerance [8]. Group 5: Investment Methods in Gold - Various investment options in gold include physical gold, gold ETFs, and gold futures, each with distinct risk and return characteristics [10]. - Investors are encouraged to monitor multiple influencing factors and adapt their strategies accordingly to capitalize on investment opportunities in the gold market [10].

Global Asset Prices - Nikkei 225 index rose by 4.1% this week, leading global stock markets[3] - S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq increased by 1.1%, 0.8%, and 1% respectively[7] - 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points[3] U.S. Economic Dynamics - Initial jobless claims fell from 221,000 to 217,000, indicating a stable labor market[4] - Core capital goods orders in June showed a negative month-on-month growth of -0.7%[4] - U.S. manufacturing PMI dropped from 52.9 to 49.5, marking the first decline below the neutral line since December[4] Central Bank Policies - Federal Reserve's rate cut probability for July is close to 0, with expectations of two cuts this year[4] - European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, indicating no urgency for further cuts[4] - Bank of Japan's deputy governor suggested potential for rate hikes due to reduced economic uncertainty from the U.S.-Japan trade agreement[4] Other Economic Developments - Eurozone services PMI rose to 51.2%, while manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8%, the highest in 36 months[4] - Ongoing military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia following border tensions[4] Upcoming Focus - Key upcoming events include U.S.-China trade talks, Q2 GDP data, and U.S. non-farm payrolls for July[4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry**: Macro Research focusing on tariffs, central bank policies, and housing market outlook in the US Key Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impacts**: - The US has announced a 15% tariff on Japan and a 19% tariff on the Philippines and Indonesia, indicating a trend of increasing tariffs. The effective US tariff rate is expected to rise by a total of 17 percentage points (pp) by 2027 [1] - This increase in tariffs is estimated to boost US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices by approximately 1.7% cumulatively over the next few years, leading to revised core PCE inflation forecasts of 3.3%/2.7%/2.4% year-over-year (yoy) for December 2025/2026/2027, compared to previous forecasts of 3.4%/2.6%/2.0% [1][1] - Higher tariffs are projected to lower GDP growth by around 1pp/0.4pp/0.3pp yoy over the next three years, as a smaller trade deficit offsets the growth drag from reduced consumption and investment [1] 2. **Central Bank Policies**: - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain unchanged rates and limited shifts in communication, with a potential last rate cut to 1.75% in September [6] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to cut rates in September, with two additional 25 basis point cuts later this year and next year, leading to a terminal rate of 3-3.25% [7] - The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut rates at its next meeting due to cumulative disinflation progress in the UK [8] 3. **US Housing Market Outlook**: - The US housing market is facing challenges with a weak spring selling season and rising mortgage rates, leading to expectations of weak residential investment growth for the remainder of the year [12] - National home prices are forecasted to rise only 0.2% this year and 0.8% next year (December-over-December) [12] 4. **US Immigration Trends**: - US net immigration is estimated to have declined from an annualized pace of 0.6 million in April to 0.5 million in June, stabilizing at around 0.5 million annually, down from the pre-pandemic trend of 1.0 million [12] - This slowdown in immigration is expected to lower the breakeven rate of payroll job growth needed to keep the unemployment rate stable to 70,000 per month by the end of 2025, down from an estimated 90,000 currently [12] 5. **Japanese Political Landscape**: - Following recent Upper House elections, the ruling coalition in Japan has lost its majority, leading to expectations of a minority government that will require cooperation with opposition parties for legislative passage [12] - The focus of opposition parties on proposals to cut consumption taxes and increase social security measures suggests an expansionary bias in fiscal policy ahead [12] Additional Important Content - The macroeconomic outlook includes a cautious view on inflation and growth forecasts, with risks skewed slightly to the upside for inflation and downside for growth through 2027 [1] - The ECB's readiness to respond to changes in the economic outlook due to trade policy developments indicates a proactive approach to monetary policy [6] - The overall sentiment reflects a complex interplay between tariff policies, central bank actions, and macroeconomic indicators that could influence investment strategies moving forward [1][6][7][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's mention of "canceling the freeze on pledged bonds" has a neutral impact on the bond market, further confirming the central bank's limited easing attitude. The possibility of significant fluctuations in the money market is low. While the central bank continuously improves monetary policy tools to support government bond issuance and maintain liquidity, it does not want interest rates to decline rapidly, which could lead to increased interest rate risks [6][8][21]. - The current "anti - involution" campaign is in its early stage and has not directly affected the bond market. It mainly affects the bond market indirectly through the stock market, suppressing further declines in bond market interest rates. Whether it will have a significant impact on the bond market in the future depends on the implementation of specific industry policies and their impact on PPI, the boost of price improvements on demand and potential demand - side stimulus policies, and changes in the central bank's monetary policy attitude [6][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Marginal Changes - **Central Bank's Monetary Policy Attitude**: On July 18, the central bank proposed to cancel the freeze on pledged bonds for bond repurchases. This move can relieve institutional debt pressure, enhance the liquidity of pledged bonds, and improve secondary - market trading activity. It can also prevent short - term interest rates from falling too quickly during subsequent treasury bond trading operations. Overall, it has a neutral impact on the bond market, indicating the central bank's limited easing stance [8]. - **"Anti - Involution" Implementation**: After the central government emphasized "anti - involution" and relevant articles were published, industries such as automobiles, photovoltaics, and cement started to take action. The market associated this with the 2015 - 2016 supply - side reform, which led to rising commodity and stock prices and suppressed the bond market. During the 2015 - 2016 supply - side reform, bond market interest rates first declined and then increased. The factors influencing the change in interest rates included rising commodity prices and continuous improvement in PPI, the implementation of shantytown renovation monetization and a booming real - estate market, and the tightening of the central bank's monetary policy. In the current "anti - involution" campaign, due to incomplete policy implementation, high household leverage ratios, and the central bank's continued loose monetary policy, it has not directly affected the bond market but mainly influenced it through the stock market [12][13][20].

Core Viewpoint - The global economic outlook is increasingly uncertain, with many central banks maintaining a cautious stance and extending their easing policies in response to external risks and weakening demand [1][12]. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve has resisted pressure from President Trump to raise interest rates, keeping the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%-4.50% amid concerns over economic uncertainty [2][12]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England have both lowered interest rates, with the ECB reducing rates by 50 basis points in recent months, while the Bank of England has room for a potential 25 basis point cut [4][5]. - The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy rate at 0.50% and slowed its bond purchase reduction, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy normalization [4][12]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Growth - Inflation pressures have eased in the Eurozone, with the annual inflation rate dropping to 1.9%, prompting the ECB to lower rates to stimulate economic growth [5][12]. - The UK economy contracted by 0.3% in April, influenced by U.S. tariff policies, leading to a cautious approach from the Bank of England regarding future rate cuts [5][12]. - Emerging markets have shown a mixed response, with countries like Russia and Mexico cutting rates significantly, while Brazil and Turkey have unexpectedly raised rates due to inflation concerns [7][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the global economic downturn risks will continue to rise, but weakening demand may alleviate inflation pressures, leading to a cautious continuation of easing policies by various central banks [1][12]. - The Federal Reserve and ECB are anticipated to keep their easing windows open until at least September, while the Bank of England may also consider further cuts if economic conditions do not improve [1][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide, and persistent geopolitical risks may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions on price pullbacks [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - China's central bank increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in June, marking eight consecutive months of increases with a recovery in the pace [1]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in July is slim, but the expected time points for rate cuts are September, October, or December [1]. Silver - The US House of Representatives passed the "Big Beautiful" bill, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit may expand by over $3 trillion. Trump's tariff policy remains in effect [1]. Global Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and the market expects 1 - 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England's key interest rate decreased by 25 basis points in May, and the expectation of rate cuts in August is rising, with 2 - 3 possible rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategies - For investors, it is recommended to mainly establish long positions on price pullbacks. For London gold, focus on support around $3,000 - $3,200 and resistance around $3,500 - $3,700; for Shanghai gold, support around 730 - 750 and resistance around 840 - 900. For London silver, support around $31 - $34 and resistance around $38 - $40; for Shanghai silver, support around 8,300 - 8,500 and resistance around 8,900 - 9,100 [1].

Global Asset Price Performance - Global bond yields have generally risen, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increasing by 6 basis points due to strong employment data reducing rate cut expectations [1] - Major global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices rising by 1.7%, 2.3%, and 1.6% respectively [1][3] - Commodity prices for gold and crude oil have rebounded this week, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.1% [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Strong employment data has led to a decrease in rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in July dropping from 20.7% to 4.7% [4] - The Bank of Japan's governor indicated that while inflation is above the 2% target, the underlying inflation rate remains slightly below target, reducing expectations for rate hikes [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - In June, non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, with government jobs contributing half of the new positions, while private sector job growth slowed significantly [12] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, but the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, indicating a trend of cooling employment [12] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49, but new orders continued to contract for the fifth consecutive month due to tariff policies [12] Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - Eurozone inflation has shown signs of stabilizing, with the CPI rising slightly to 2%, and the ECB is expected to consider a rate cut by the end of the year [29] - In the UK, a failed welfare reform has raised concerns about potential tax increases and borrowing, leading to a significant rise in long-term bond yields [29] - Japan's consumer spending increased by 4.7% year-on-year in May, driven by higher expenditures on automobiles and dining out [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In June, the capital market was loose with a slight downward shift in the capital center under the central bank's care. In July, the capital market may continue to be moderately loose due to favorable factors, but it may not loosen significantly [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Review: Central Bank's Care Leads to Slight Downward Shift in Capital Center - **Capital Market Looseness**: In June, the capital market remained loose, with most - term capital centers moving down. DR001, DR007, and DR014 operation centers decreased by 11bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively compared to May. DR001 mostly operated below the policy rate, and the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate "anti - seasonally" narrowed [2][12]. - **Central Bank's Warm Attitude**: The central bank showed a warm attitude. It conducted two outright reverse - repurchase operations in June with early announcements, net - injecting 2000 billion yuan. MLF continued to increase, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan in June. The central bank's total net - injected funds in June were the second - highest among the same periods since 2018 [16]. - **Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit (NCD)**: In June, the maturity scale of NCDs reached a record high, and the issuance scale was the second - highest in history. However, the NCD issuance rate, after rising in mid - to - late May, started to decline in June under the central bank's long - term capital injection. The R - DR spread seasonally widened [3][19][21]. 3.2 7 - Month Outlook: Capital Market May Continue to be Moderately Loose under Favorable Factors - **Historical Seasonal Pattern**: Historically, capital rates in July tend to decline seasonally. Since 2018, the capital market in July has been more relaxed than in June, mainly manifested by the narrowing of the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate [4][24]. - **Exchange Rate Factor**: The recent dissipation of RMB depreciation pressure and the exchange rate approaching 7.15 mean that the current exchange - rate environment no longer restricts the central bank's monetary easing [4]. - **Central Bank's Mention of "Preventing Capital Idling"**: Although the central bank mentioned "preventing capital idling" in the second - quarter monetary policy meeting, since 2024, when this statement was made, the capital rate did not rise significantly. The central bank's frequent mention of it in 2025 may not be directly related to a change in its attitude [5][31][32]. - **Liquidity Gap**: In July, the net financing pressure of government bonds will slightly increase by 80 billion yuan compared to June. The increase in government deposits may widen the liquidity gap. Considering the maturity of monetary tools, the liquidity gap will be 2.06 trillion yuan. Assuming the central bank conducts equal - amount roll - overs, the estimated excess - reserve ratio in July is about 1.3%, slightly lower than in June [6][37][42].