中国人民银行 党委 书记 、行长潘功胜在 人民日报 发表 署名文章《构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系（学习贯 彻党的二十届四中全会精神）》。 以下为原文： 构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神） 潘功胜 党的二十届四中全会 通过的《 中共 中央关 于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和 覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系。这是"十五五"时期推动金融高质量发展、加快建设金融强国的战略举措，为完善中央银行制度指明了方向。 一、构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系的重要意义 习近平 总 书记 指出，金融是"国之大者"，关系中国式现代化建设全局。中央银行以维护币值稳定和金融稳定为双目标，货币政策体系和宏 观审慎管理体系是中央银行实施宏观管理的两项基础性工具，是实现双目标的双支柱。构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎 管理体系，有利于把维护币值稳定和金融稳定更好结合起来，对于支撑金融强国建设具有重要的意义。 二是稳增长与防风险的关系。随着经济结构转型和信贷结构变化，实体经济需要的货币信 ...

中国人民银行行长潘功胜在人民日报发表署名文章《构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审 慎管理体系（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神）》指出，不断完善人民币汇率形成机制。我国是大型 开放经济体，要坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，保持汇率弹性，发挥好汇率调节宏观经济和国际 收支自动稳定器功能，为自主、有效实施货币政策创造有利条件。同时，坚持底线思维，强化预期引 导，坚决防范汇率超调风险。 ...

构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神） 潘功胜 《人民日报》（2025年12月04日 第 09 版） 党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出， 构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系。这是"十五五"时期推动金融高质量发 展、加快建设金融强国的战略举措，为完善中央银行制度指明了方向。 一、构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系的重要意义 习近平总书记指出，金融是"国之大者"，关系中国式现代化建设全局。中央银行以维护币值稳定和金融 稳定为双目标，货币政策体系和宏观审慎管理体系是中央银行实施宏观管理的两项基础性工具，是实现 双目标的双支柱。构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系，有利于把维护币值稳 定和金融稳定更好结合起来，对于支撑金融强国建设具有重要的意义。 一是加快构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制的必然要求。习近平总书记指出，金融改革发展是国家改革 发展的重要内容；金融制度是经济社会发展中重要的基础性制度。"十五五"时期，需要适应社会主要矛 盾变化，更好解决发展不平衡 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 文章称，准确把握科学稳健的内涵和要求。要把握好货币政策的力度、时机和节奏，更加注重做好跨周 期和逆周期调节，保持货币条件与支持经济潜在增长和物价基本稳定的要求相匹配，提升金融支持经济 结构调整和高质量发展的适配性和精准性。 ...

Economic Challenges - China's economy is facing challenges of insufficient total demand and increasing downward pressure on prices [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, with a target for household consumption to increase from 39.9% of GDP in 2024 to 43%-45% by 2030, but current consumption recovery remains weak [2] Inflation and Price Trends - In October 2025, the CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 0.3% the previous month, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1% from January to October [2] - The PPI fell by 2.1% year-on-year in October, down from a decline of 2.3% the previous month, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.7% from January to October [2] Investment Structure - Investment remains heavily focused on traditional infrastructure and real estate, while investment in manufacturing and new productive forces is growing but requires time to form systemic support [2] - Fiscal policy is supporting local investment through a 500 billion yuan limit, but a shift from "investment in objects" to "investment in people" requires institutional breakthroughs [2] Policy Recommendations - To boost consumption over the next five years, macroeconomic policy should focus on collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies [2] - Structural monetary policies should be introduced to address the weak credit demand despite ample liquidity [3][4] Financial Sector Insights - The current 7-day reverse repo rate is at 1.4%, indicating room for interest rate cuts, with total monetary policy not yet exhausted [3][4] - The focus of financial work in the next five years will be on deepening supply-side structural reforms in finance and improving the monetary policy transmission mechanism [4] Risk Management - Addressing risks such as real estate downturns, local debt defaults, and failures of small financial institutions is crucial for maintaining economic growth [3][9] - The current economic contradiction of "ample liquidity but weak credit demand" stems from insufficient total demand rather than issues with the monetary policy transmission mechanism [14] Future Outlook - The interest rate corridor is expected to narrow to around 50 basis points, with the ten-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.7% in the short term [4][18] - The focus of fiscal policy should be on expanding investment to stabilize income expectations and enhance potential growth capacity [20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" with an expectation that the industry index will perform better than the CSI 300 index by more than 5% within the next six months [44]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has emphasized a balanced approach in monetary policy, focusing on short-term and long-term growth, risk prevention, and the health of the banking system while maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery and structural transformation [2][10]. - The financial statistics report for October indicates a decline in new RMB loans by 280 billion yuan year-on-year, with a total of 220 billion yuan added in October 2025, reflecting a shift in credit structure and a natural decrease in financial growth rates as the economy transitions to high-quality development [14][17]. - The recent meetings by the PBOC, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and the National Financial Regulatory Administration highlighted the commitment to enhancing financial stability, risk prevention, and supporting high-quality economic development [3][19]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Execution Report - The PBOC's third-quarter monetary policy execution report indicates a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and optimizing credit structure to support key sectors and strategic transformations [11][12]. - The report outlines measures to lower the comprehensive financing costs and maintain a stable exchange rate while ensuring the effectiveness of monetary policy tools [12][17]. Financial Statistics Report - The October financial statistics report shows a total social financing increment of 0.82 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5%, indicating a robust financial environment despite a decrease in new loans [14][15]. - The report also notes that M2 growth was at 8.2%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous month, while the overall financial volume remains reasonable [17]. Market Performance - The banking, securities, insurance, and fintech indices experienced changes of +1.70%, -1.01%, +2.63%, and -2.11% respectively, with the banking sector showing resilience amid market fluctuations [21]. - The average daily trading volume for stock funds was reported at 24,965 billion yuan, indicating a slight decrease from the previous week [32][36]. Regulatory Developments - The PBOC and other financial regulatory bodies are focused on enhancing the central bank system, improving monetary policy frameworks, and ensuring effective risk management to support the financial sector's stability and growth [19][20].

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank maintains a stance of "appropriate monetary easing" and emphasizes the need for consistency in macro policies[1] - The report highlights the importance of "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" in monetary policy[5] - The weighted average interest rate for new loans in September was 3.24%, down 0.05 percentage points from June, with corporate loans at 3.14% and personal housing loans unchanged at 3.06%[6] Global Economic Concerns - The central bank expresses ongoing concerns about global economic growth, citing insufficient momentum and the impact of tariff policies on certain economies[2] - Geopolitical conflicts are identified as potential risks to economic and financial stability[2] - The report indicates a decrease in concerns regarding global inflation, with a noted divergence in inflation trends among major economies[4] Domestic Economic Outlook - The central bank is optimistic about domestic economic performance, citing strong production supply, released consumption potential, and proactive macro policies as key support factors[3] - The report stresses the need for a development model driven by domestic demand and consumption[3] - The central bank acknowledges the complex and uncertain environment for domestic development, urging confidence and strategic focus[3]

Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately accommodative monetary policy to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of balancing short-term and long-term goals, supporting economic growth while managing risks, and ensuring internal and external equilibrium [1][2] Financial Environment and Tools - The report calls for the use of various monetary policy tools to ensure ample liquidity and to guide banks in maintaining stable credit support [2][3] - It stresses the need for a scientific approach to financial total indicators, shifting focus from loans to social financing scale due to changes in financing structure and economic transformation [2][3] Interest Rate and Market Mechanisms - The report advocates for deepening interest rate marketization reforms to enhance the transmission channels of monetary policy [2][3] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy and reduce arbitrage opportunities [3] Structural Monetary Policy Tools - As of September, the balance of structural monetary policy tools supporting key areas was 3.9 trillion yuan, with loan growth in related sectors exceeding 10% [4] - The report highlights the rapid growth of loans in the pension industry, approaching 60%, indicating a diverse range of covered subjects [4] Financial Risk Management - The report outlines the need for a comprehensive macro-prudential management system and mechanisms for systemic financial risk prevention and resolution [4][5] - It calls for enhancing the macro-prudential management of systemically important financial institutions and expanding the coverage of additional regulatory measures to non-bank sectors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the implementation of a stable yet progressive monetary policy, aiming to balance economic growth with risk prevention while enhancing the financial system's robustness and openness [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Strategy - The central bank will maintain a reasonable growth of financial aggregates and implement a moderately loose monetary policy to ensure social financing conditions remain relatively relaxed [2] - The focus will be on using various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [2] Group 2: Financial Support and Development - The central bank aims to enhance the guiding role of monetary and credit policies by promoting technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, and digital finance, supporting key national strategies and sectors [3] - There will be a focus on improving financial support mechanisms for small and micro enterprises, enhancing credit systems, and promoting consumption through financial measures [3] Group 3: Interest and Exchange Rate Management - The central bank will deepen interest rate marketization reforms and improve the transmission channels of monetary policy, ensuring that market-driven interest rates reflect true lending costs [4] - A managed floating exchange rate system will be maintained, with measures to stabilize the RMB exchange rate and enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market [4] Group 4: Financial Market Development and Openness - The development of a multi-tiered bond market will be accelerated, with a focus on supporting private technology enterprises and enhancing the legal framework for bond issuance [5] - The central bank will promote the internationalization of the RMB and expand its use in cross-border trade and investment [5] Group 5: Risk Prevention and Management - A comprehensive macro-prudential management system will be established to monitor and mitigate systemic financial risks, with an emphasis on enhancing the oversight of systemically important financial institutions [6] - The central bank will explore innovative financial tools and strengthen cross-border regulatory cooperation to maintain market stability [6]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to improve the central bank system, establish a robust monetary policy framework, and enhance macro-prudential management to support high-quality economic development [1][7]. Monetary Policy Framework - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to create a scientific and robust monetary policy system to achieve a balance among price stability, economic growth, full employment, and international balance of payments [1][2]. - The PBOC will focus on optimizing the mechanism for basic currency issuance and monetary supply control, ensuring reasonable growth in total financial volume [2][3]. - The PBOC will avoid excessive liquidity injection and will utilize tools like reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to maintain liquidity based on economic conditions [2][3]. Macro-Prudential Management - A comprehensive macro-prudential management system is essential for preventing systemic financial risks and maintaining financial stability [4][5]. - The PBOC will enhance monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, improve risk prevention measures for key institutions and sectors, and expand the macro-prudential management toolbox [4][5]. - The management system will also include a focus on cross-market and cross-institutional risk monitoring and regulation of shadow banking [5]. Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism - Improving the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is crucial for enhancing financial services to the real economy [6]. - The PBOC will promote interest rate marketization, strengthen the guiding role of policy rates, and optimize the transmission paths from financial institutions to the real economy [6]. - Transparency in monetary policy and effective communication of policy intentions will be key to ensuring market understanding and enhancing the effectiveness of policy implementation [6]. Future Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" provides clear direction for the central bank's priorities over the next five years, with expectations for a stable monetary and financial environment to support high-quality economic development [7].