1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall financial market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different sectors affected by various factors such as macro - economic data, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand relationships. For example, the stock index futures market is affected by risk preferences and commodity price fluctuations; the bond market has opportunities due to the change of risk preferences; the agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as weather, trade relations, and supply and demand; the black metal market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and downstream demand; the non - ferrous metal market is influenced by factors such as the US economic data, geopolitical risks, and supply and demand; the energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply and demand, and cost [19][22][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Core view: Risk preferences continue to decline, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a slightly stronger direction due to the strength of heavy - weight stocks. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use bull spreads [20][21] Bond Index Futures - Core view: Risk preferences are fluctuating. The bond market performs relatively strongly, but the sentiment is still cautious. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips for TF and T contracts; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [22][23] Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Core view: The demand side of US soybeans has improved, and the domestic soybean meal cost is supported, but the supply is becoming looser. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, use the short straddle strategy [25][26] Sugar - Core view: International sugar prices are at the bottom and oscillating, while domestic sugar prices are relatively strong and are also expected to oscillate at the bottom. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to pay attention to whether the previous low of international sugar prices can be effectively broken, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31][32][33] Oil and Fat Sector - Core view: Oils and fats maintain a wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as trade and policy expectations, and there is a callback demand. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies lightly or go long on dips after the callback; for arbitrage, consider the y59 reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [34][35] Corn/Corn Starch - Core view: The spot price in the production area is stable, and the futures price oscillates weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on the US 03 corn contract after it stabilizes and short on the 03 corn contract lightly on rallies; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch; for options, stay on the sidelines [37][38] Live Pigs - Core view: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price has risen slightly, but there is still pressure in the follow - up. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading and arbitrage are recommended to be on the sidelines; for options, use the short straddle strategy [40][41] Peanuts - Core view: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates in a narrow range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies lightly for the 03 peanut contract; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the pk603 - C - 8200 option [42][43][44] Eggs - Core view: Pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and egg prices have fallen. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies for the June contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [45][46][47] Apples - Core view: Pre - festival sales are good, and apple prices are firm. The May contract price is expected to rise easily and fall hard. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips for the May contract and short on rallies for the October contract; for arbitrage, long the May contract and short the October contract; for options, stay on the sidelines [48][49][50] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core view: The fundamentals change little, and cotton prices are supported. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips for the Zhengzhou cotton contract in the short term; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [52][53] Black Metals Steel - Core view: The demand is weakening marginally, and steel prices continue to oscillate following raw materials. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to follow the raw materials and oscillate weakly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and continue to hold the short position of the coil - screw spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [55][56] Coking Coal and Coke - Core view: The market is mainly driven by funds and emotions, with large fluctuations. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to trade in bands and wait for opportunities to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [57][58][59] Iron Ore - Core view: Market expectations are fluctuating, and iron ore prices are running weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weak; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [60][61] Ferroalloys - Core view: The cost support is strong, and the previous long positions can be held. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the previous long positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the out - of - the - money put options [62][63] Non - ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Core view: Pessimistic sentiment is spreading, and short - term fluctuations are intensifying. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options are recommended to stay on the sidelines [65][67][68] Platinum and Palladium - Core view: Under the strong US dollar, the metals are oscillating. Be cautious when participating in unilateral trading. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips cautiously; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [68][69] Copper - Core view: Pay attention to the change of sentiment before the Spring Festival. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate cautiously; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [70][73][74] Alumina - Core view: Short - term marginal changes in production capacity cause fluctuations. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate strongly in the short term; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [75][76][77] Electrolytic Aluminum - Core view: Wait for the volatility to decline before the Spring Festival, and the medium - term expectation remains unchanged. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be cautious; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [78][79] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core view: Oscillate following the sector. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options are recommended to stay on the sidelines [80][81] Zinc - Core view: Pay attention to the change of market sentiment. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the short positions and move the stop - loss line down; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [82][84][85] Lead - Core view: Oscillate within a range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly within a range; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [86][88] Nickel - Core view: Oscillate following the non - ferrous metal sector. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then go long; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [89][91] Stainless Steel - Core view: Supported by cost, follow the nickel price. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines before the Spring Festival and go long on dips after the price stabilizes; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [93][96] Industrial Silicon - Core view: The expectation of organic silicon production reduction increases, revising the previous view. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate within the range; for arbitrage and options, there is no recommendation for now [97][99] Polysilicon - Core view: Industry self - discipline and price - support expectations rise again, and the market fluctuates more. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be strong in oscillation and operate cautiously; for arbitrage and options, there is no recommendation for now [100][101] Lithium Carbonate - Core view: Before the Spring Festival, it is dominated by sentiment, and wait for the volatility to decline. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to reduce the exposure; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the out - of - the - money put options after the price stabilizes [102][104] Tin - Core view: Pay attention to the market sentiment. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate cautiously; for options, stay on the sidelines [105][106] Shipping Container Shipping - Core view: Shipping companies announce price increases in March, and pay attention to the geopolitical situation in Iran. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, conduct the 6 - 10 calendar spread [107][108][109] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Core view: Wait for the outcome of events. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weak in oscillation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [110][111][113] Asphalt - Core view: There are still concerns about the increase in raw material costs and supply gaps in the medium term. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level and go long on dips for the BU2606 contract; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU and short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [114][115][116] Fuel Oil - Core view: The high - sulfur spot market is always strong, and pay attention to the short - term geopolitical risks. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate strongly and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 calendar spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [118][119][120] LPG - Core view: Oscillate and consolidate before the Spring Festival. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [121][123] Natural Gas - Core view: Geopolitical risks reach a critical point, and cold weather is about to affect Eurasia. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to continue to hold the short positions for the TTF and JKM third - quarter contracts and the HH second - quarter contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [123][124] PX&PTA - Core view: Polyester production cuts are gradually implemented, and textile sales are gradually stopping. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [126][127] BZ&EB - Core view: The supply - demand balance is expected to improve, and benzene ethylene is in a stage of destocking. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage, conduct the calendar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [128][130][131] Ethylene Glycol - Core view: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [132][133] Short - fiber - Core view: Short - fiber factories reduce production as planned. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [134][135] Bottle Chips - Core view: The processing margin is strengthening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [136][137] Propylene - Core view: The supply - demand support is acceptable, and the spot price is running strongly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [139][140][141] Plastic PP - Core view: The PP production profit margin has improved slightly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the L 2605 contract and the PP 2605 contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [142][143] Caustic Soda - Core view: The caustic soda price is weak. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [144][146][147] PVC - Core view: Oscillate in a wide range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [150][151] Soda Ash - Core view: The price is weakening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, short glass and long soda ash; for options, short the call options [152][155][156] Glass - Core view: The price is weakening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, short glass and long soda ash; for options, short the call options [157][159] Methanol - Core view: Run weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 59 calendar spread; for options, short the put options on the callback [160][161][164] Urea - Core view: The market turns weak again. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [165][167] Pulp - Core view: The pulp price continues to oscillate in a wide range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate within the range and long on dips for aggressive investors; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the SP2605 - C - 5350 option [168][169][171] Offset Printing Paper - Core view: High inventory suppresses the paper price. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the OP2604 - C - 4200 option [171][172][178] Logs - Core view: The change of delivery rules is beneficial to the log valuation. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the long positions; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 3 - 5 reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [175][176][180] Natural Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber - Core view: As the Spring Festival approaches, the tire production starts to increase marginally. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the RU 05 contract and the NR 04 contract; for arbitrage, hold the NR2605 - RU2605 spread; for options, reduce the position of the RU2605 call 18250 contract and stay on the sidelines [180][181][183] Butadiene Rubber - Core view: The synthetic rubber inventory turns to year - on - year destocking. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the BR 04 contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [184][185][186]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the asphalt market is experiencing a lack of upward momentum due to unchanged fundamentals, heavily influenced by geopolitical changes and market risk appetite [1][3][27] - The main contract for asphalt (BU 2603) opened high but retreated, closing at 3339, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous day, with a trading range between 3382 and 3336 [1][27] - The high-end price of heavy asphalt in East China remained stable at 3350 CNY/ton, while the low-end price was also stable at 3250 CNY/ton, indicating a relatively firm market despite previous significant adjustments [2][27] Group 2 - Short-term outlook suggests that asphalt prices will continue to be influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the resumption of US-Iran nuclear negotiations scheduled for February 6, which may ease market tensions [3][27] - The author maintains a strategy of focusing on near-month contracts while monitoring geopolitical developments, suggesting that once geopolitical factors dissipate, there may be potential for long positions in the distant contracts based on improved global supply-demand dynamics [4][28] - The report highlights that the overall market sentiment is low, primarily driven by precious metals, leading to insufficient liquidity affecting asphalt prices [3][27] Group 3 - Key data points include the closing price of asphalt at 3339 CNY/ton, a 0.7% drop from the previous day, and Brent oil price at 68.11 USD/barrel, down 1.2% [31][31] - The report notes that the price spread between asphalt and Brent oil has shown significant fluctuations, with the BU-Brent spread at 126.7 CNY [31][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the results of the upcoming negotiations and their potential impact on the energy market [3][27]

Group 1 - Copper prices in Shanghai opened lower and closed down by 3.76%, maintaining above the 100,000 yuan mark, influenced by weak market sentiment and a decline in U.S. stocks [1] - The U.S. ADP employment figures for January showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 48,000, indicating a sluggish employment market amid low hiring and layoffs [1] - As the Chinese New Year approaches, downstream copper enterprises are beginning to halt production and stock up, but demand is expected to weaken further, limiting the upward potential for copper prices [1] Group 2 - The supply and demand situation in the copper market remains weak, with global inventories increasing to 1 million tons, and China entering a seasonal consumption lull [2] - The domestic inventory accumulation has slightly slowed down after the opening of export windows, while overseas LME deliverable stocks have been insufficient, leading to fluctuations in premiums [2] - The current price difference between London copper and U.S. copper is narrowing, and attention should be paid to changes in the COMEX copper term structure and the C-L price spread [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market shows a weakening trend, with the January ADP employment falling short of expectations, leading to a weakening of market risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar. The short - term outlook for the US economy is mixed, with the employment market cooling while the service sector shows mild expansion and inflation pressure remaining [2][18]. - Gold prices fluctuate and close higher. The inflow of bottom - fishing funds lacks sustainability. Geopolitical risks persist, and the progress of the US - Iran negotiation falls short of expectations, increasing the long - short game in the gold market [3][14]. - The bond market has many potential negative factors, and the probability of weakening after a sideways movement is high. It is recommended to moderately focus on shorting T [4][27]. - In the sugar market, the production and sales pressure of sugar mills in Guangxi is large, and the sales pressure is expected to further increase in the later stage of the crushing season. The domestic sugar market is facing seasonal supply pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [5][42]. - After a significant macro - level cooling, zinc prices may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage [6]. - The US propane inventory has decreased significantly, and the de - stocking amplitude is expected to narrow next week [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Key points: The cancellation of the US - Iran negotiation on Friday, the inflow of bottom - fishing funds in the gold market with limited sustainability, the repeated short - term geopolitical situation, and the increase in the long - short game. It is recommended to wait for the volatility to decline before making allocations [3][14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Key points: The Fed decides to keep the capital requirements of large - scale banks unchanged in 2026. The January ADP employment in the US is lower than expected, the labor market weakens, the market risk appetite weakens, and the US dollar rebounds in the short term [16][18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Key points: The performance guidance of AMD is lower than expected, the Q4 revenue of Google's cloud business grows by 48%, but the large - scale capital expenditure in the future causes stock price fluctuations. During the earnings season, the US stock market is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [20][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Key points: The Shanghai Composite Index recovers and returns to 4100 points. Affected by news, coal stocks drive the pro - cyclical blue - chip sector to recover. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures and evenly allocate the three major stock indexes [24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Key points: The central bank conducts a 75 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan on the day. The bond market is likely to weaken after a sideways movement, and it is recommended to moderately focus on shorting T [26][27]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - Key points: Some Indonesian coal mines suspend offering due to production quota issues. The Indonesian side has a clear demand for production cut and price protection, and the bottom of coal prices is more solid, but the upward elasticity needs to be observed [28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Key points: The iron ore project of Atlas Iron is approved by the government. The iron ore price maintains a weak oscillation. The downstream restocking is completed, and the supply is at a high level. The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [30]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Key points: Brazil imposes anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Indian color - coated sheets. The steel price continues to oscillate. The steel price is less affected by the rise in coal prices, and it is recommended to treat the steel price with an oscillatory mindset [31][33][34]. 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - Key points: The coking coal price in the Linfen market is weakly stable. The supply may shrink during the Spring Festival. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is affected by the Indonesian event, showing a strong oscillation [36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Key points: India's sugar production increases, and the sugar production in Guangxi decreases. The production and sales rate is at a low level, and the sugar mill's sales pressure is expected to increase. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40][42]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Key points: Malaysia's palm oil inventory may decline in January. The US Treasury Department issues the 45Z proposed rule. It is recommended to focus on relevant data and conferences and consider going long on dips [43][45][46]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Key points: Sigma Lithium resumes mining operations, and Fulin Jinggong and CATL increase capital in Jiangxi Shenghua. The production and demand of lithium carbonate decline in February, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to go long on dips after the position and volatility stabilize [47][49][51]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Key points: The LME lead shows a discount. The lead market has a situation of weak supply and demand. The lead price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to medium - term long positions [52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Key points: The LME zinc shows a discount, and Boliden's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 decreases by 15% quarter - on - quarter. Zinc prices may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][55]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Key points: Chile releases a key mineral strategy, and the EU proposes a key mineral partnership with the US. The macro - sentiment supports copper prices, but the short - term spot structure is loose. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57][58]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Key points: The LME tin shows a discount. The supply of tin is expected to ease, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery and consumption improvement [59][60][61]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Key points: The US propane inventory decreases significantly, but the supply is still abundant. It is recommended to wait and see due to various disturbances [62]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Key points: The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries decreases. The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price fluctuates greatly [62][63][65]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - Key points: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises increases. The LLDPE price may oscillate strongly driven by cost, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [66]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - Key points: The inventory of Chinese methanol ports decreases. Due to the increasing geopolitical risks, the previous short - selling strategy is no longer valid, and it is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [67]. 2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Key points: Ports in the Mediterranean and Chittagong go on strike. The Middle - East geopolitical situation supports the high - level oscillation of the market. The downward space of the spot price is limited [68][69][70].

沪镍小幅走高，主力合约涨超2%。镍基本面未有明显变化，过剩格局维持，全球精炼镍显性库存持续 攀升，对 镍价形成压力，但印尼缩减镍矿配额，为价格提供一定支撑，多空因素交织，镍价跟随宏观 情绪波动为主。 ...

UNforex 2月3日讯（分析师 Simon）在连续两个交易日快速回落后，国际金价于周二欧洲早盘自四周低 位展开反弹，价格重新站上每盎司4900美元关口。美元指数自阶段性高点回撤，为黄金提供了短线修复 条件。但在美联储人事安排不确定、市场风险偏好改善以及前期去杠杆效应尚未完全消退的背景下，金 价运行呈现出修复动能存在、趋势指引仍不清晰的状态。 周二亚洲至欧洲交易时段，美元指数在前一日反弹后上行动能减弱，回落至97.50下方。美元走软为此 前遭遇集中抛售的贵金属市场带来阶段性缓解，黄金价格自1月6日以来低点回升，盘中重新回到4900美 元上方。从盘面结构来看，本轮反弹更符合快速下跌后的技术性修复特征。此前，在美元快速走强、保 证金要求上调以及多头集中止盈的共同作用下，黄金曾出现多年罕见的单日大幅回撤，市场情绪也由高 度拥挤迅速转向防御。 需要关注的是，美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席，仍是当前市场定价中的重要变 量。沃什以对通胀保持高度警惕而闻名，其政策立场被普遍视为偏向克制，这在一定程度上稳定了美元 预期，同时削弱了此前关于"贵金属替代美元储备资产"的激进交易逻辑。多家机构指出，若该提名顺利 ...

兴业证券表示，对于A股而言，前期上涨虽然受益于全球流动性宽松的β，但核心驱动仍在于国内向好 的基本面、政策"开门红"与充裕的流动性带来的α。往后看，支撑春季行情的这些核心逻辑并未发生任 何变化。我们此前强调，流动性充裕的环境中，国内偏暖的基本面和政策为市场风险偏好打底，从而资 金对于各类宏观和产业层面的叙事做积极响应，推动赚钱效应不断扩散，将是本轮春季行情结构上的一 个重要特征。本周科技、涨价链、消费各类风格轮番演绎，本质上正是资金正在依据各类催化，积极寻 找和挖掘尚未被充分定价的细分领域。往后看，来自基本面、政策和产业层面的催化依然不少，充裕的 增量资金有望继续推动春季行情向纵深演绎。 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it provide detailed construction processes, formulas, or backtesting results for such models or factors[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Canola Oil [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Non - ferrous Metals, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum - Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Other Metals, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Polyester Staple Fiber, Styrene, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, SS, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The stock index is expected to have limited short - term shock adjustment space and mainly show a shock - strong trend [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and the prices of copper and aluminum are rising. The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, and there is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level [1]. - The supply of stainless - steel raw materials is unstable, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar has limited incremental supply in the first quarter, and there is upward potential for tin prices [1]. - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the prices of precious metals have risen strongly, but short - term fluctuations are severe. The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices [1]. - The production of industrial silicon in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has decreased [1]. - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly [1]. - The expected increase in rebar and iron - ore prices is not strong, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The supply and demand of other metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [1]. - The supply of soda ash is more relaxed in the medium term, and the price is under pressure. The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract, and the previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1]. - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the price of palm oil is expected to be shock - strong. The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and the price is bullish [1]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving force [1]. - The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The upward momentum of corn prices before the holiday is insufficient [1]. - The Brazilian soybean supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up the soybean - meal price. The paper - pulp price has fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The price of logs is expected to have limited further decline space and will fluctuate within a certain range. The pig - production capacity needs to be further released [1]. - Due to OPEC+ suspending production increase, tense Middle - East geopolitics, and the US cold wave, the price of crude oil is affected [1]. - Bitumen follows the trend of crude oil, and its profit is relatively high. Shanghai rubber is driven by cost and market sentiment to rise [1]. - The fundamentals of BR rubber are mixed, with short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - long - term upward expectations. The PTA and polyester staple - fiber markets are affected by the strong PX market [1]. - The price of styrene has rebounded, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The methanol market is affected by the Iranian situation and downstream feedback [1]. - The supply of PE and PP is under pressure, and the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. The SS market fundamentals are weak [1]. - The LPG market is affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to weaken. The freight rate of container shipping on European routes has peaked and fallen before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The short - term shock adjustment space is limited, and it will mainly show a shock - strong trend [1] Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Copper - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and copper prices have risen further [1] Aluminum - Recently, the industrial drive is limited, but the decline of the US dollar index supports the price. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, which causes concerns about the supply side, aluminum prices are running strongly [1] Alumina - The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the industrial situation is weak. The price is under pressure, but it is currently near the cost line and is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Recently, the North American cold wave has increased energy prices, which is unfavorable for the resumption of overseas smelters. There is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices [1] Non - ferrous Metals - The market risk preference has recovered, which boosts non - ferrous metals. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level, still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1] Stainless Steel - The supply of raw - material nickel - iron prices has been rising continuously, the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, the speed of social - inventory reduction has slowed down, and the steel mills' production schedule in January has increased. The supply - side disturbances are repeated, and the stainless - steel futures are oscillating at a high level [1] Tin - In the short term, the market sentiment is changeable. Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is a negative news, the incremental supply of tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. Under the situation of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is upward potential for tin prices [1] Precious Metals - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the demand for hedging and the wave of de - dollarization have accelerated, and the prices of precious metals have risen strongly again. However, as the market sentiment has fermented to the extreme, the prices of gold and silver have plunged at a high level, with severe short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with a light position [1] Platinum - Palladium - The macro - drive has weakened, and the liquidity is relatively insufficient, resulting in large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. There is still a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. It is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [1] Industrial Silicon - The production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] Polysilicon - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, the energy - storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and the price has risen significantly [1] Lithium Carbonate - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the sentiment has not been smoothly transmitted to the spot market. The upward momentum is insufficient [1] Rebar - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is light, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to close the long - single position and participate in the cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] Iron Ore - There is sector rotation, but the upward pressure on iron - ore prices is obvious. It is not recommended to chase up at this position [1] Other Metals - There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply and demand continue to be weak, but energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may have an impact on the supply [1] Soda Ash - It mainly follows the trend of glass. The medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract. After the first - round price increase of coke was shelved on Monday, funds began to anticipate the downstream's active de - stocking after the holiday. The short - position increased, and the price of coking - coal 05 broke through the previous important multi - empty boundary and support levels. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1] Coke - The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Palm Oil - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to be shock - strong [1] Soybean Oil - The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1] Canola Oil - Due to the influence of the US, the relationship between China and Canada is still uncertain, the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, and the short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1] Cotton - The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate is low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "supported but lack of driving force" [1] Sugar - Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] Corn - Before the holiday, the stocking is almost over, the regional price difference is at a low level, and the domestic grain - reserve inventory is sufficient. The funds have taken profit, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and回调 before the holiday [1] Soybean Meal - In February, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion has postponed the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. Unilaterally, there are no conditions for a significant trend - like increase. Currently, the domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing profit is at a high level, and from the perspective of crushing profit, the valuation of the soybean - meal futures is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [1] Pulp - Today, the pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - market, but it has not broken through the oscillation range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Logs - The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebounding recently, and the futures price is expected to have limited further decline space. However, the January overseas offer has still slightly decreased, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack upward - driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Pigs - Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the slaughter weight not fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and the cold wave in the US has increased energy demand [1] Bitumen - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th - Five - Year Plan rush - work demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of bitumen is relatively high [1] Shanghai Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the sharp rise of synthetic rubber has driven the sector to strengthen, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish [1] BR Rubber - The cost - end butadiene still has strong bottom support, and the overseas cracking - device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants has been severely lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, and the short - term downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. Fundamentally, butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring - Festival inventory reduction of cis - butadiene rubber and the performance of butadiene inventory. The short - term futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation and a callback, and there is an upward expectation for BR in the medium - long term [1] PTA - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has had a limited negative feedback on PTA [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the price of polyester staple fiber continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - There is news that the styrene plant in the Middle East has shut down. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have improved marginally, the styrene futures price has rebounded rapidly. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, supported by the increase in domestic export opportunities and the rise of domestic prices. The styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the economy has been slightly repaired. The styrene inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been reduced [1] Methanol - Methanol is generally affected by the situation in Iran, and it is expected that the future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, with both long and short factors intertwined. The downstream MTO leading plant has shut down, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. Affected by the cold air, the freight in the inland area has increased, and the northwest enterprises have a large pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1] PE - The overseas ethylene glycol price has rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch the production of a 900,000 - ton EG production line in mid - February due to profit reasons. Driven by this news, the speculative demand in the market has significantly increased [1] PP - There are few maintenance operations, the operation load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The price has returned to a reasonable range. The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase [1] PVC - In 2026, the global new production capacity is relatively small, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing for exports later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] SS - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and the futures price is expected to react to the fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, and the absolute price is at a low level. The factory is facing continuous inventory accumulation, and the spot price may still be reduced [1] LPG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the futures sentiment will switch between fundamentals and sentiment. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, the futures price is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to gradually widen. The domestic PDH operation rate has declined, the profit is expected to be seasonally repaired, the global civil - combustion rigid demand is stable, the demand for MTBE

2026 年 01 月 29 日 宏观研究团队 美联储独立性和新主席换届是市场更关注的点 ——1 月 FOMC 会议点评 何宁（分析师） 潘纬桢（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 声明及发布会要点 1. 美联储在此次会议上宣布维持利率水平在 3.5%-3.75%区间。资产负债表政策 方面，按照 2025 年 12 月的计划继续执行。 2. 暂停降息，再次出现 2 张反对票。在声明中，美联储的措辞同 2025 年 12 月 份相比有一定的变化。美联储认为当前美国经济活动稳步扩张，2025 年 12 月则 认为经济活动正以温和的速度扩张。就业方面，美联储认为就业增长依然缓慢， 失业率已出现企稳迹象。2025 年 12 月则认为失业率有上升趋势；通胀方面，认 为通胀仍处于略高水平，与 2025 年 12 月表述基本相同。此外，美联储删除了 2025 年 12 月份关于风险平衡的变化表述，说明其认为当前货币政策短期无需调 整。此外，本次会议中再次出现 2 张反对票。米兰与沃勒认为应该继续降息 25bp， 随着新主席换届的时间越来越近，美联储内部的分歧或继续显性化。 相关 ...