Workflow
市场风险偏好
icon
Search documents
DLSM外汇:黄金还能继续上涨吗?CPI数据与市场情绪将给出提示
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 04:16
日线技术指标显示,黄金的相对强弱指数(RSI)处于超买区间。这表明近期的上行趋势可能需要一定 整理,以消化高位买盘压力。 在支撑方面,3600美元及3580美元附近形成了初步防线,如金价下行突破,可能测试中期支撑区域 3565–3560美元甚至更低的历史低点3510美元。 上方阻力位则集中在近期高点3675美元及心理整数关口3700美元,这些水平将对进一步上涨形成考验。 市场对美联储货币政策的预期是影响黄金的重要因素。近期美国生产者价格指数(PPI)涨幅低于预 期,强化了市场对未来降息的预期。 若美联储实际降息,可能对美元形成压力,从而间接影响以美元计价的商品价格。值得关注的是,市场 仍在等待美国8月消费者价格指数(CPI)数据的公布,这一数据将为市场判断通胀走势和货币政策方向 提供重要线索。 高于预期的CPI可能支撑美元,而低于预期则可能减缓美元走强的步伐。 这种避险需求会在一定程度上支撑黄金价格,使其在短期内表现出防御性特征。 除了宏观经济因素,市场对不确定性事件的敏感度也会对黄金价格产生影响。在金融市场、经济数据或 全球经济环境出现突发变化时,投资者通常会增加对避险资产的关注。 近期现货黄金价格在高位区 ...
A股两融余额突破2.3万亿元,券商:市场风险偏好有所提升
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-09-11 00:58
展望后市,方正证券认为,多重积极利好因素决定了中国资本市场长期向好的趋势不会改变:一是经济 中长期向好态势不变;二是A股估值较低权益资产性价比突出;三是上市公司质量稳步提升夯实微观基 础;四是分红回购不断增加提高投资者回报;五是耐心资本持续流入助力市场健康发展。 方正证券还具体分析提到,去年9月份以来,A股市场流动性整体就在持续改善,两市成交中枢显著提 升,融资规模同样攀升至历史较高位;特别是今年4月份以来,面对外部冲击导致的全球股市巨大波 动,资本市场各参与主体通过增持回购等多种方式协力为A股市场提供源源不断的增量资金支持,A股 市场在关税落地后短暂调整后走出持续慢牛行情。 【环球网财经综合报道】Wind数据显示,截至9月9日,A股两融余额继续突破2.3万亿元,达到23197亿 元,再创历史新高。 方正证券近日发布研报认为,两融余额持续新高并刷新历史记录反映了当下市场风险偏好有所提升,A 股市场流动环境整体较为宽松;从变化趋势来看,虽然当前两融余额绝对规模已经超过2015 年前高, 但两融余额占流通市值及成交比重依然处于2016年来历史中枢水平。 ...
熊园:美联储主席换届——流程、人选、影响
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-10 03:30
Core Conclusion - The current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term will end on May 15, 2026, and the next chairman is likely to be chosen from three candidates: Waller, Hassett, and Walsh, all of whom hold dovish views. The market currently sees Waller as the most probable candidate [1]. Group 1: Appointment Rules - The Federal Reserve Chairman serves a 4-year term and can be reappointed indefinitely, while the term for a Federal Reserve Board member is 14 years, with no possibility of reappointment. The President nominates the chairman, who must be confirmed by a majority vote in the Senate [2]. - Powell's term as chairman ends in May 2026, but he can continue to serve as a board member until January 31, 2028, if he does not seek reappointment [2]. Group 2: Candidates and Their Policy Stances - The three candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman are Waller (current Fed board member), Hassett (current NEC director), and Walsh (former Fed board member). All three are considered dovish and advocate for immediate interest rate cuts [5]. - Waller emphasizes the importance of Fed independence, while Hassett and Walsh show some flexibility regarding this independence, with Walsh suggesting that Fed policy should align with fiscal policy [5][7]. Group 3: Timing of Trump's Nomination - Historically, Trump is expected to nominate the next chairman around February 2026, but given his dissatisfaction with Powell, an earlier nomination is possible to diminish Powell's influence [8]. Group 4: Likelihood of Candidates - As of September 7, Waller has a 36% probability of being nominated, followed by Hassett at 26% and Walsh at 16%. Waller's probability has remained stable over the past month [9][11]. - A survey indicated that professional investors believe Waller and Walsh are more qualified than Hassett, who lacks extensive experience in financial institutions [14]. Group 5: Historical Impact on Asset Classes - Historical data shows that in the three months prior to a new chairman's nomination, U.S. stocks generally perform poorly, while the performance of U.S. Treasury yields is inconsistent, and the dollar index tends to weaken [15]. - After the nomination, U.S. stocks typically see a significant improvement, with Treasury yields rising, although the dollar and gold prices may vary depending on the new chairman's policy stance [15].
多只产品涨超2%!这类资产止跌回升
Core Viewpoint - The public REITs market has shown signs of recovery after a period of decline, with several funds experiencing significant gains, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1][2]. Market Performance - On September 4, the CSI REITs All Return Index rose by 0.42%, with multiple public REITs gaining over 2%, including a 3.1% increase in the China Merchants Fund Shekou Rental Housing REIT [1][2]. - The previous week (August 25-29), the index recorded a 1.06% increase, closing at 1073.33 points [2]. - There is a noticeable differentiation within public REITs, with property-type REITs increasing by 1.55% and franchise-type REITs by 0.87% [2]. Year-to-Date Performance - As of September 4, 54 out of 58 listed REITs have achieved positive returns this year, with the Jia Shi Wu Mei Consumption REIT exceeding a 50% increase [3]. - Other notable performers include the Huaxia Dayuecheng Commercial REIT and the Bosera Tian Kai Industrial Park REIT, both with gains over 40% [3]. Market Challenges - The REITs market is currently under short-term pressure due to a high sentiment in the equity market, leading to reduced liquidity and significant index corrections [4]. - Among 47 public REITs, many have reported negative returns over the past 60 trading days, with four REITs experiencing declines exceeding 10% [4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the overall revenue of REITs showed a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 7.5% [6]. - The average cash distribution rate fell to 2.36%, a decline of 50 basis points year-on-year, and the average dividend rate dropped to 2.26%, down 146 basis points [6]. Long-term Investment Perspective - The current market conditions may present good long-term investment opportunities in public REITs, particularly in resilient sectors such as affordable housing and consumption [8][9]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term holding strategy to achieve better returns through reasonable asset allocation [9].
博时市场点评9月4日:沪指失守3800点,创业板跌超4%
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-04 08:25
Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3,800 points and the ChiNext Index dropping over 4% [1] - The trading volume in the two markets was less than 2.6 trillion yuan, indicating a slowdown in market activity [1] - The recent increase in margin trading balance by 1.4 billion yuan suggests a slight uptick in leveraged funds entering the market, although the pace has slowed down [1] Investor Sentiment - In August, the number of new A-share accounts reached 2.65 million, a month-on-month increase of 35% and a year-on-year increase of 165% [2][3] - This marks the third consecutive month of growth in new accounts, reflecting strong willingness among retail investors to enter the market [2][3] - The total number of new accounts in the first eight months of the year reached 17.21 million, a year-on-year increase of over 47% [2] Policy Coordination - A joint meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China discussed financial market operations and government bond issuance management [2] - The meeting emphasized the importance of macro policy coordination, particularly in stabilizing market expectations and ensuring smooth government bond issuance [2] - Improved coordination and mechanisms are expected to promote the healthy development of the bond market and enhance market risk appetite [2] Market Performance - On September 4, the A-share market saw declines across all major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,765.88 points, down 1.25% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.83%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 4.25% [4] - Among the sectors, retail, beauty care, and banking showed positive performance, while telecommunications, electronics, and comprehensive sectors faced significant declines [4] Trading Activity - The market's trading volume was reported at 25,822.18 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading day [5] - The margin trading balance reached 22,898.61 billion yuan, indicating a rise compared to the previous day [5]
招商策略:短期震荡不改成长风格主线,大盘股更优
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 14:32
Core Viewpoint - The current liquidity-driven environment remains the primary characteristic of the short-term stock market, with changes in market risk appetite dominating market rhythm [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As September approaches, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to materialize, leading to a relatively high level of financing fund enthusiasm, although future inflows may slow down slightly [1] - With the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts, the appreciation of the RMB, and the stabilization of domestic PPI, foreign capital may gradually shift towards inflows [1] Group 2: Historical Insights - Historical experience indicates that during the correction phase of a bull market, previously strong styles may experience larger pullbacks, but after a brief correction, the market quickly returns to the previous strong main style [1] Group 3: Market Style Outlook - Based on the analysis, it is believed that the market style in September may lean towards large-cap stocks, with growth styles expected to continue to outperform [1]
量化观察:从投资者结构变化看风格
2025-09-01 02:01
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the investment behavior of individual and institutional investors in the market, particularly in relation to different investment styles such as large-cap and small-cap stocks [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investor Participation Trends**: - Individual investor participation has been gradually increasing since May, with a notable rise in August, although it remains within a healthy range and has not reached historical overheating levels [2]. - In contrast, institutional investor participation has been declining since June, attributed to longer decision-making cycles and lower sensitivity to market downturns [2]. - **Performance of Micro-Cap Style**: - The micro-cap style has shown diminishing advantages, with the Wande Micro-Cap Index's excess returns decreasing from 7.2% in May to approximately -3% in August [3]. - The decline is linked to seasonal effects and the current low crowding score of 1.5 (out of 5), indicating that while valuations are high, the overall volatility among constituent stocks remains normal [3]. - **Growth Style Performance and Future Outlook**: - The growth style has seen a slight increase in trading participation, with no signs of overheating in news sentiment [4]. - A four-quadrant rotation model indicates that small-cap growth stocks are optimal for July and August, driven by a relaxation in market risk appetite and momentum accumulation [4]. - The current market conditions, including low term spreads, favor high-elasticity styles, suggesting that growth may continue to outperform value in the near future [4]. Other Important Insights - **Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite**: - The overall market sentiment is high, with large-cap trading becoming overheated, while small-cap stocks are expected to perform better in the short term due to favorable conditions [4]. - **Crowding Metrics**: - Institutional crowding metrics are at the 75th percentile, indicating that while there is some level of crowding, it has not reached a warning threshold [3]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call records, highlighting the dynamics of investor participation and the performance of different investment styles in the current market environment.
中信期货晨报:国内商品期货涨跌互现,股指板块集体飘红-20250829
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 03:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The expectation of monetary easing supports market risk appetite. In China, the difficulty of achieving the annual economic target is not high, and market risk appetite may also be supported. Short - term market volatility may increase as important events approach and economic growth slows [7]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. Domestic market sentiment may remain high until early September, after which the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut is strengthening, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to become looser [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. Powell's speech at the annual meeting was dovish, strengthening market expectations of interest rate cuts. US consumer confidence deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In the real estate sector, new housing starts increased steadily in July, while building permit issuance continued to decline [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic economic fundamentals have weakened marginally, but it is still not difficult to achieve the annual economic target. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies. The probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased, and domestic demand remains at a reasonable level. The capital market remains loose, providing support for related assets [7]. - **Asset Views**: In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high - level sentiment until early September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has strengthened, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to enter a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel. Short - term market volatility may increase [7]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Leveraged funds are crowded, and there is early profit - taking. The decline of incremental funds is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The bearish side has strong betting. The deterioration of option market liquidity is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remains loose, and the yield curve steepens. Concerns include unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of a restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September is positive for prices, but the impact of market risk appetite needs attention. Concerns include US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is no driving force for price increases. The rate of price decline in September is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The actual support is limited, and the futures prices are under pressure. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The daily consumption of imported sinter has decreased, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Coke**: The eighth - round negotiation continues, and some coke enterprises are reducing production. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Production has decreased, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The black chain is under pressure, and futures prices are weak. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The sector remains weak, and futures prices are running weakly. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are maintained, and some regions are promoting price stability through price increases. Concerns include spot sales and production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has decreased in the short - term, and rigid demand remains. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The suspension of Sino - US tariffs has been extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed policies, weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. Concerns include unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Aluminum**: Social inventory has slightly accumulated, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and weaker - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black series have fallen, and zinc prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [8]. - **Lead**: Consumption is still unclear, and lead prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and a slowdown in battery exports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has been rising, and the stainless - steel futures prices are correcting. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected growth in demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Tin**: Raw material supply remains tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Coal prices are fluctuating, and silicon prices are continuously volatile. Concerns include unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The game between bulls and bears continues, and prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized. Attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. Concerns include the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have fallen, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are following the decline of crude oil. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating downward following crude oil. Concerns include crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory has accumulated, but petrochemical news has provided short - term support. Methanol prices are oscillating. Concerns include macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea prices are oscillating in the short - term. Concerns include export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Low inventory and peak - season expectations resonate, providing strong support for prices at the lower end. Concerns include fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PX**: Emotional stimulation and peak - season promotion. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **PTA**: Supply decreases and demand increases, with an expected inventory reduction from August to October. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. Concerns include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device load reduction. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: Inventory has declined, and processing fees are under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. Concerns include unexpected production increases by bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Propylene**: In the short - term, it mainly follows the fluctuations of PP. Concerns include oil prices and the domestic macro - environment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PP**: News related to Zhonghan Petrochemical has stimulated the market, but fundamental support is limited. PP prices are oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Plastic**: News of anti - internal competition in the petrochemical industry has provided support, and plastic prices have strengthened slightly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Concerns include oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has improved, and PVC prices have weakly stabilized. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Caustic Soda and Oils**: The rebound of spot prices has slowed down, and short - term long positions in the near - month contracts have taken profits. The expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the US continues, and there is still significant pressure for oil price adjustments. Concerns include market sentiment, production start - up, demand, US soybean weather, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The import and crushing profit of soybeans has declined rapidly. Attention should be paid to the support at the integer - level mark for soybean meal. Concerns include US soybean weather, domestic demand, the macro - environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The decline of spot prices has slowed down, and futures prices have rebounded slightly. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, the macro - environment, and weather. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Pigs**: Inventory pressure remains, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: Prices are following the market sentiment and falling, with little change in its own situation. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Futures prices are following the decline of natural rubber. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Pulp**: Prices have been continuously declining, possibly due to pricing based on spruce. Concerns include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the expected purchase price. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Sugar**: The short - term supply pressure has increased, and sugar prices continue to decline. Concerns include imports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Logs**: Delivery pressure remains high, and log prices are adjusting weakly. Concerns include shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10].
有色早报-20250829
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 02:54
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference remains high despite the poor domestic economic and financial data. In August, there may be a small accumulation of inventory under the full - supply pattern, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. There is an expected small inventory accumulation in August. Attention should be paid to demand in the short - term and potential arbitrage opportunities in the low - inventory situation [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply increases, demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly. Short - term prices may rebound, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended, while a short - position configuration is suggested in the medium - to - long - term. Positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [5]. - For nickel, supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory remains stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel has a weak fundamental situation. Some steel mills cut production passively, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs remain stable, and inventory decreases slightly. Attention should be paid to policy trends [6]. - Lead prices fluctuate. Supply has issues such as low scrap battery supply and low profit - driven low production. Demand shows a "not - prosperous peak season" situation. Inventory is expected to remain at a high level, and prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [8]. - Tin prices fluctuate widely. Supply is affected by factors such as low processing fees and potential production resumptions. Demand has a peak - season expectation in the terminal electronics sector but a strong expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth. A wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term, and long - position holding near the cost line is suggested in the medium - to - long - term [11]. - The production of industrial silicon resumes at a slow pace. The current supply - demand balance shows a small inventory reduction. In the short - term, the supply - demand situation may remain tight, while in the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [14]. - Carbonate lithium prices fluctuate on the futures market due to supply - side disturbances. Spot trading is active during the peak season. The core contradiction lies in the long - term over - supply situation and short - term supply - side compliance disturbances. The price has large upward and downward elasticities [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 50, the warehouse receipt decreased by 55, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1850 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The market risk preference continues to rise. The downstream orders are supported at around 7.8. The copper rod production rate shows resilience at the end of the off - season, and the substitution effect between refined and scrap copper is obvious. The scrap copper market is disturbed by policies, and there may be a small inventory accumulation in August [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 110, the domestic alumina price decreased by 7, and the import alumina price decreased by 50. The inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. The export of aluminum products improves, but photovoltaic demand and overseas demand decline. There is an expected small inventory accumulation in August [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory decreased by 2025 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increases as the smelting increment is further realized in August and the zinc ore import in July reaches a three - year high. Demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly [5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rebound, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. A short - position configuration is suggested in the medium - to - long - term. Positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1450, and the inventory of LME increased by 456 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory remains stable [6]. - **Strategy**: Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coils and other products remained mostly unchanged, and the inventory in Xifu decreased slightly [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some steel mills cut production passively, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs remain stable, and inventory decreases slightly [6]. - **Strategy**: Attention should be paid to policy trends [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot premium increased by 10, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory decreased by 4975 [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has issues such as low scrap battery supply and low profit - driven low production. Demand shows a "not - prosperous peak season" situation. Inventory is expected to remain at a high level [8]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [8]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot import profit decreased by 1094.76, and the inventory of LME decreased by 30 [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is affected by factors such as low processing fees and potential production resumptions. Demand has a peak - season expectation in the terminal electronics sector but a strong expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth [11]. - **Strategy**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term, and long - position holding near the cost line is suggested in the medium - to - long - term [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 45, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 53 [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production resumes at a slow pace. The current supply - demand balance shows a small inventory reduction. The supply - demand situation may remain tight in the short - term, while prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom in the medium - to - long - term [14]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the SMM electric carbonate price decreased by 1600, and the warehouse receipt increased by 1480 [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The futures market fluctuates due to supply - side disturbances. Spot trading is active during the peak season. The core contradiction lies in the long - term over - supply situation and short - term supply - side compliance disturbances [16].
永安期货有色早报-20250828
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 03:04
Group 1: Copper - The risk appetite sentiment continued to rise this week. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, the stock market sentiment remained high. The downstream orders were verified to have support around 7.8, and the copper rod开工率 showed resilience at the end of the off - season. The scrap - refined substitution effect was evident. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper might be restricted. In August, a small inventory build - up was expected under full supply, but the market might focus on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1] Group 2: Aluminum - From January to June, aluminum ingot imports increased supply. In August, demand was in the seasonal off - season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late months. Aluminum product exports improved month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand declined, and overseas demand dropped significantly. An inventory build - up was expected in August. In the short - term off - season, attention should be paid to demand. In the low - inventory pattern, attention should be paid to far - month spreads and reverse arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets [1][2] Group 3: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, domestic TC had difficulty rising, while imported TC increased. In August, smelting output increased. Overseas, the mine output in the second quarter exceeded expectations, and zinc ore imports in July were over 500,000 tons, the highest in nearly three years. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience; overseas, European demand was average, and some smelters had production resistance due to processing fees. Domestic social inventory increased, and overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly. In the short - term, zinc prices were expected to rebound, and it was recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, a short - position configuration was suggested. Long - short arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets could be continued, and positive spreads between months could be noted [5] Group 4: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, while demand was weak overall, and the premium was stable recently. Domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remained unchanged. In the short - term, the fundamental situation was average, and the macro - environment was mainly about anti - involution policy games. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could continue to be monitored [6] Group 5: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills cut production passively, and some in the north were affected by the military parade. On the demand side, it was mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking increased due to the macro - environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remained stable. Inventories in Xifu decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The fundamentals were generally weak, and short - term macro - factors followed anti - involution expectations. Attention should be paid to future policy directions [6] Group 6: Lead - This week, lead prices fluctuated. On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and the supply of scrap batteries was tight. The recycling volume of recyclers was low, and the TC quotation was in a mess. On the demand side, the battery finished - product inventory was high, and the battery operating rate increased this week, but the market was not prosperous in the peak season. The refined - scrap price difference was +25, and the LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 tons. In August, primary supply was expected to increase, and recycled lead production might decrease. Demand improved slightly, but the inventory was still expected to be at a high level. Lead prices were expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [8] Group 7: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee for tin ore was at a low level, and some domestic smelters cut production. Yunnan smelters would start maintenance in early September. Overseas, there were signals of production resumption in Wa State, but large - scale exports were difficult before October. African tin ore might increase in the long - term but was unstable in the short - term. There was a risk of mine inspections in Indonesia. On the demand side, the demand for solder was limited, and the terminal electronic consumption had peak - season expectations, but the photovoltaic growth rate was expected to decline. Domestic inventory decreased slightly, and overseas consumption was strong. The domestic fundamentals were in a short - term supply - demand double - weak situation. Attention should be paid to the possible supply - demand mismatch from September to October and the impact of interest - rate cut expectations on non - ferrous metals. In the short - term, it was recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it was advisable to hold positions near the cost line when the price was low [11] Group 8: Industrial Silicon - The resumption of production in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan was slower than expected. In August, there was a small inventory reduction. The core of supply - demand balance was the resumption rhythm of Hesheng. In the short - term, if Hesheng's eastern production remained around 40 units, the supply - demand balance would be tight. In the long - term, the industrial silicon production capacity was still in serious over - supply, and the operating rate was low, so the price would fluctuate at the cycle bottom [14] Group 9: Lithium Carbonate - This week, the futures price fluctuated greatly due to the expected production resumption of salt lakes and mica mines. On the spot side, the peak - season effect was obvious, and the downstream procurement volume increased. The core contradiction of lithium carbonate was that under the background of over - supply in the long - term, the resource side faced periodic compliance disturbances. In the current peak - season approaching, the monthly balance turned to continuous inventory reduction after the production cut of CATL's smelters, and the price elasticity was large when supply - side disturbances were hyped up [16]