Economic Overview - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed optimism about the economic outlook, predicting a GDP growth rate of 3.5% for the entire year of 2025 [1] Commodity Insights Oil - The SC night market fell by 2.24%. Gasoline prices in the U.S. dropped below $3 per gallon, the lowest in four years [2] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.3 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased by 4.8 million barrels and 2.5 million barrels, respectively [2] Fats and Oils - November palm oil production in Malaysia was 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 5.3% month-on-month, while exports fell by 28.13% to 1.212 million tons [2] - As of the end of November, palm oil inventories rose by 13.04% to 2.835 million tons, indicating significant inventory pressure [2] Coking Coal - The coking coal market showed narrow fluctuations, with total holdings remaining stable. Coking coal supply is relatively loose, and the profitability of steel mills has declined [3] - The market is expected to experience limited downward movement due to potential demand recovery and seasonal heating needs [3] Financial Market Trends - The U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the retail sector leading gains while the communication sector lagged [11] - The financing balance increased by 4.842 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in capital flow [11] Domestic News - The Social Security Fund emphasized the importance of prudent investment operations and effective asset allocation to support national development needs [8] - The postal industry in China reported a cumulative business volume of 196.75 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [8] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Brazil's soybean planting rate reached 94.1%, slightly below last year's rate of 96.8% [24] - U.S. soybean exports to China have been slower than expected, with a total of 2.7 million tons sold since October 30 [24] Sugar - The sugar market remains weak, influenced by Brazil's faster-than-expected harvesting and India's production recovery [27] - Domestic sugar production costs are high, providing some support to the market despite overall weakness [27] Shipping Index - The European shipping index is experiencing downward fluctuations, with expectations for price stability in January due to strong loading conditions [29]

短期内，金银在触及阶段高位后出现技术性整理，属于上涨过程中的正常现象。随着关键经济数据陆续 公布，市场对未来利率路径的判断仍将反复修正，价格波动或有所加大。 对于后市，尽管白银相对黄金的估值已处于偏高区间，短线不排除出现轮动或回调，但在经济不确定性 尚未消散的环境下，贵金属作为对冲工具和资产多元化选择的核心地位依然稳固。综合来看， Mhmarkets迈汇认为，在货币政策预期、实物需求与资金流向多重因素支撑下，贵金属板块仍具备中长 期配置价值，本年度行情有望延续强势表现。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 12月16日，2025年以来，贵金属市场延续强势格局，白银表现尤为突出。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，制造业 数据不及预期令市场重新押注货币环境趋于宽松，美元承压之下，资金加速流入贵金属板块，成为本轮 行情的重要背景。 从价格结构来看，白银大幅跑赢黄金，金银比快速回落至历史相对低位区间。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，这 一变化反映出市场风险偏好阶段性抬升，资金更倾向于选择弹性更大的品种，以捕捉降息预期下的超额 收益。 制造业活动走弱被视为本轮上涨的直接催化剂。相关数据大幅低于市场预期，强化了对未来利率下行的 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 股市成交缩量，股指震荡下跌 核心观点 今日各股指均震荡下跌。股市全市场成交额 1.75 万亿元，较上日成 交额缩量 463 亿元。近期股市成交量能缩量，主要是因为市场驱动力量表 现不足，资金交投热情回落。中央经济工作会议延续了更加积极的财政政 策以及适度宽松的货币政策的表述，但是在总量政策上并未超预期，表述 上由"超常规逆周期"转向"逆周期和跨周期并重"，这意味着在 2026 年总量政策仍会托底，但更加兼顾调结构，政策发力向内循环的消费和科 技倾斜。另外由于完成今年经济增长目标的压力较小，年内政策加码的动 力不足，政策的发力点预计在明年一季度，短期内政策利好的动能有所不 足，股指存在震荡整固的需求。目前股指仍然处于震荡区间内，不过后市 随着政策利好预期不断发酵，市场风险偏好将逐渐回升。总的来说，短期 内股指以区间震荡为主。 期权方面，考虑到股指中长线向上，可以牛市价差或者比例价差温和 看涨的思路对待。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资 ...

投资增速改善，经济内生企稳 Email：youyong@zts.com.cn 2025-12-08 2、《信用债类 ETF 赎回了吗？》 2025-12-01 3、《信用债类 ETF 大幅净流入》 2025-11-24 证券研究报告/固收事件点评报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 报告摘要 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524070004 对比上月，下游消费品制造业的生产改善，中游设备制造行业的生产整体放缓。医药、 电子设备、纺织、食品等行业工业增加值同比均较上月改善。中游的汽车、交运设备 等工业增加值增速高位回落，11 月同比增速均为 11.9%，分别较上月下滑 4.9pct 和 3.3pct。 绝对增速看，化学原料及制品（6.7%）、交运设备（11.9%）、汽车（11.9%）、电 子设备（9.2%）和通用设备（7.5%）的增速明显高于整体。 服务业生产指数小幅回落。11 月服务业生产指数同比增长 4.2%，增速较上月下降 0.4pct。结构延续上月特征，信息技术、租赁和金融等生产性服务业的景气度高于服 务 ...

- The report discusses the **ETF Risk Appetite Index**, which has been declining since September 19, indicating a contraction in market risk appetite. This is evidenced by the outperformance of low-valuation stocks over high-valuation stocks and a gradual decline in trading volume. However, the **Active Capital Indicator** shows that speculative funds remain active, particularly in technology-related ETFs like cloud computing, military, and science innovation, while defensive ETFs like dividend and consumption are underperforming. This suggests a fragile market balance where risk appetite is declining, but active funds are narrowing their focus within the technology sector[1][11] - The report highlights the **High-Frequency Trading Regulation Impact**, which aims to level the playing field by increasing transaction delays and removing exclusive equipment. The regulation primarily targets microsecond-level ultra-high-frequency trading strategies, which are mostly proprietary or market-making strategies. These strategies have minimal impact on the overall market due to their small scale, typically under 100 million RMB per product. The report concludes that the regulation has limited influence on the profitability of quantitative strategies, as their excess returns are driven by asset pricing rather than trading speed. The report also notes that market volatility recovery could further enhance quantitative excess returns[2][12] - The report analyzes the **Micro-Cap Stock Trends**, noting that short-term fluctuations are influenced by hedging products, while medium-term trends are supported by incremental funds from quantitative products. Since December, the issuance of quantitative products has remained robust, though the proportion of "air index enhancement" (quantitative stock selection) has decreased by 12%, while "1000 index enhancement" and other index enhancements have increased. This shift has slightly reduced the allocation to micro-cap stocks. Additionally, as market risk appetite declines, funds are concentrating on high-growth sectors, strengthening mid-cap stocks like CSI 500 and CSI 1000. Despite short-term adjustments, the report remains optimistic about medium-term inflows into micro-cap stocks[3][13]

【基本面消息】 数据显示，12月10日上海黄金现货价格报价952.40元/克，相较于期货主力价格（956.40元/克）贴水4元/ 克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 11月下旬以来金价上行的动力主要来自于美联储降息预期持续升温，美元指数高位回落。 | 12月10日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 956.40 | 0.26% | 222609 | 192659 | 短期市场对美联储降息预期计价较为充分，而市场风险偏好回升使金价承压。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 临近美联储12月议息会议，短期市场趋于谨慎，黄金波动下降，等待议息会议结果。 【机构观点】 广发期货：欧美债市趋弱引发担忧 金价先跌后涨 逻辑：美联储降息预期升温，美国就业市场疲软支撑金价，同时欧美债市趋弱引发担忧，金价先跌后 涨。数据：国际金价收盘 4206.92 美元 / 盎司，涨 0.43%，盘中从 4170 美元下方拉升超 40 美元。观 点：4200 美元附近转入震荡，单边短期观望，可做虚值期权双卖策略。 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a low volatility increase with an average trading volume of 1,696.2 billion CNY, a decrease of 40.7 billion CNY week-on-week[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.26% and the ChiNext Index by 1.86%[2] - The PMI for November rebounded by 0.2 percentage points, aligning with seasonal trends but still significantly lower than expected[2] Fixed Income - The bond market saw an overall increase in yields, with the 30-year government bond yield rising significantly[2] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation totaling 663.8 billion CNY, with a net withdrawal of 848 billion CNY[2] - The market anticipates a cautious monetary policy outlook, limiting bullish sentiment in the bond market[2] Overseas Market Dynamics - U.S. stock markets rose, with the Dow Jones up by 0.5% and the S&P 500 by 0.31%[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased to 4.14%, while the 2-year yield rose by 12 basis points to 3.56%[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.46%, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the dollar[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, significantly below the expected increase of 10,000[2] - The core PCE index for September fell to 2.8%, below the expected 2.9%, indicating weaker inflation pressures[2] - Michigan University's one-year inflation expectation dropped from 4.5% to 4.1%, boosting market risk appetite[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include weaker-than-expected economic fundamentals and the possibility that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may not meet market expectations[2]

冠通期货研究报告-- 宏观与大宗商品周报 冠通期货研究咨询部王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2025年12月08日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 市场综述 最近，市场宏观逻辑的要点在与下一任美联储主席的人选。鲍威尔即将卸任，特朗普积极插足，即将公布其已经确定的人选。白 宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特成为热门人选，市场交易更加宽松的预期，美债利率与美元双双承压。投资者风险偏好回暖，波 动率VIX指数大幅下降，风险资产悉数反弹。全球股市与大宗商品多数收涨，A股主要股指全线反弹，BDI指数逆势上扬，美元指数明显 收跌，非美货币多数走升。大宗商品涨跌互现，贵金属与有色双双上扬，油价迎来反弹。 国内债市涨跌互现近强远弱、股指全线反弹，商品大类板块涨跌互现多数收跌；股市全线反弹，成长型风格表现不如价值型，沪 深300反弹幅度最为明显；国内商品大类板块涨跌互现多数收跌，Wind商品指 ...

Group 1 - The private equity stock position index reached 82.97% as of November 21, 2025, marking a significant increase of 1.84% from the previous week and setting a new high for the year, as well as a 185-week record [1] - The proportion of fully invested private equity (over 80%) increased to 68.99%, while the percentages of medium (50%-80%), low (20%-50%), and empty positions (less than 20%) decreased to 18.56%, 8.56%, and 3.89% respectively [1] - Major private equity firms, such as Dongshuiquan, believe that despite short-term volatility, structural opportunities are emerging, supported by favorable policy and liquidity conditions [1] Group 2 - The current market anticipates that the Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, contributing to a generally loose liquidity environment in the A-share market [1] - Corporate earnings are showing signs of stabilization, with third-quarter reports indicating a mix of structural differentiation and localized highlights, particularly in the technology and advanced manufacturing sectors [1] - The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors are expected to continue providing structural opportunities due to dual drivers of external demand and technological upgrades [1]

来源：市场资讯 基本面来看，进口矿持续亏损，北方矿山季节性检修致原料供应趋紧，加工费下行倒逼炼厂减停产增 多，预计12月精炼锌供应减少2.43万吨，供应端压力进一步缓解，锌价下方支撑增强。今日现货升水大 幅走高，持货商挺价意愿强烈，市场刚需交易氛围尚可，市场存在少数买家追涨补货行为，但由于终端 步入消费淡季，且锌价破位上行抑制下游消费情绪，整体需求释放有限，锌价上行空间受限。 短期锌价预计区间内震荡偏强，23000阻力位仍待宏观数据及国内重要会议指引。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-5668838） ccmn锌市美联储分析：今日国内现货锌价上涨。 宏观层面，美联储或于下周开启年内最后一次降息，叠加潜在鸽派继任人哈塞特的预期施压美元，同时 美国股市回暖，中国宽松货币政策及资金流动性宽松预期升温，市场风险偏好提升，为锌价上涨提供动 力。 今日沪期锌走势：今日沪期锌震荡上行；沪锌2601主力合约开盘价22745元/吨，最高价22800元/吨，最 低价22695元/吨，昨日结算价22705元/吨，今日收盘价22755元/吨，涨50元，涨幅0.22%。今日沪锌2601 主力合约成交量106416手减 ...