炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 文/新浪财经上海站 十里 近日，市场流传出一张疑似为华福证券首席分析师王保庆观点的截图，其中提出了名为"2026年有色十 大狂想"的判断。截图内容显示，其对未来一轮有色金属周期给出了极为激进的设想，包括： 2026年有色十大狂想包括： 四是锂价突破30万元/吨，在储能需求加持下重回高位； 五是铜、铝价格上涨50%，受算力与储能双重驱动； 一是金价上涨50%； 二是银价翻倍，并被央行纳入储备体系； 三是铂价翻倍，价格追平黄金； 六是锡价突破50万元/吨，算力需求成为重要支撑； 七是镍价翻倍，受印尼减产影响； 八是有色行业整体翻倍，继续领涨国内外资本市场； 九是铜成为算力产业链中最优质资产，紫金矿业市值与规模超过必和必拓，成为全球最大矿业公司； 十是在储能拉动下，钾盐板块出现大量数倍股。 于此，其提出疑问——由储能与算力共同驱动的有色金属超级周期，是否在2025年仍处于起点阶段，而 真正的主升浪或将出现在2026年。 | | 中国证券业协会 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The discussion revolves around the global economic landscape, particularly focusing on the implications of de-globalization and the dollar crisis on commodity supply and demand dynamics. The analysis draws parallels between the economic conditions of 2026 and 1978, particularly in the context of the United States and China. Key Points and Arguments Economic Conditions and Policies - The current commodity bull market is driven by de-globalization and the dollar crisis, similar to the situation in 1978. Supply risks are heightened due to geopolitical issues and natural disasters, such as the Indonesian copper mine disaster, while demand is supported by strategic reserves [1][2] - The U.S. fiscal policy may mirror the Carter administration's approach in 1978, with potential tax cuts under Trump's "Great America Act" aimed at stimulating economic growth. The effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to shift towards a dual mandate of maximizing employment and controlling inflation, reminiscent of the 1978 era under Chairman Miller, who maintained low interest rates despite rising inflation [1][3] China’s Economic Transition - China's economic trajectory in 2026 is likened to Japan's in 1978, transitioning from rapid industrialization to a focus on high-quality development, with GDP growth stabilizing around 5%. There is a strong inclination among residents to save rather than invest, with government support being crucial for social investment [1][4] - The challenges facing China include enhancing consumer spending, optimizing investment structures, and adapting to external environmental changes. The current low willingness for credit among residents mirrors Japan's situation during the late 1970s [5][6] Challenges for the U.S. and China - The U.S. faces challenges such as stagflation, increasing fiscal deficits, and potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence. The anticipated fiscal expansion under the "Great America Act" raises questions about its ability to effectively stimulate growth [5] - China must address issues related to high-quality development, including improving consumer sentiment and encouraging private investment, while also focusing on industrial upgrades and technological innovation [6] Impact of Monetary Policy and Currency Fluctuations - The hesitation to raise interest rates during Miller's tenure led to diminished trust in the Federal Reserve, resulting in a low real interest rate environment despite nominal rates being high. This situation contributed to a depreciation cycle for the dollar [7] - The initiation of the RMP (Reinvestment Plan) by the Federal Reserve resulted in a decline in short-term interest rates, but long-term rates did not follow suit, limiting the valuation of long-duration assets like tech stocks [8] - A weaker dollar in 2026 is expected to lead to a broad increase in commodity prices, with reduced price discrepancies across various commodities. The appreciation of the yuan and narrowing interest rate differentials may attract cross-border capital into yuan-denominated assets, enhancing their valuation and promoting foreign investment in A-shares [11] Market Insights and Future Outlook - The historical context of Japan's stock market rise in 1978 due to yen appreciation and foreign capital influx provides insights for China's market, which is poised for a financialization phase. The anticipated interactions between the U.S. and Chinese markets could lead to favorable conditions for China's market performance in 2026 [12] - Key sectors to watch in the Chinese market include cyclical industries such as photovoltaics, power equipment, chemicals, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as consumer companies with high operational leverage, like airlines and tourism. The expected commodity bull market also presents significant opportunities [13]

宏观周周谈：扩内需的必要性、时机与政策思路 20251221 如何看待扩大内需的必要性、时机和思路？ 扩大内需是否为政策目标是关键。如果它是目标，政策将倾斜以实现这一结果。 从十三五到十四五，再到十五规划，我们可以看到中国经济政策的演变。在十 三五期间，全球进入康波萧条期，中国避免了汇率升值和独立于全球的资产泡 沫，通过防风险措施避免了日本化。十四五期间，中国的目标是推升全要素生 产率，防止拉美化，并通过构建国内国际双循环来解决需求问题。国内循环侧 重于提高全要素生产率，而国际循环则通过一带一路对冲外需不足。尽管这导 致了一定程度的通缩，但也带来了资源自主可控和优化初次分配等正面影响。 在十五期间，中国需要实现两个主要目标：一是制造份额重新回到 30%以上， 以维持第一大经济体应有的制造水平；二是达到中等发达国家收入水平，这不 仅需要人均 GNI 达到一定门槛，还需要科技含量和服务占比达到相应指标。因 全球宏观形势类似百年前，共同富裕成趋势，康波周期处于萧条期，需 扭转社会结构，加强二次分配，并配合一次分配，扩大内需，提高收入 分配改革力度。 中国扩大内需的大动作预计在 2026 下半年至 2027 上半年， ...

顺周期大涨：为什么？能追吗？买哪些？20251216 摘要 跨境资本回流是核心驱动力，预计 2024 年 9 月美联储首次降息后加速， 2025 年 9 月重启降息，推动国内 PPI 和 CPI 修复，利好顺周期行业盈 利和估值双升，或将驱动 2026 年 A 股市场走势。 人民币汇率升值预期增强，出口顺差扩张及美联储降息导致弱美元，均 支撑人民币升值。汇率升值超 200 个基点将吸引跨境资本加速回流，提 升国内资产吸引力。 制造业反内卷政策显效，资本开支收缩，自由现金流修复，叠加全球流 动性涌入安全资产，中国优势制造业因稳定现金流和人民币升值受益， 估值有望系统性重估。 消费行业受益于 PPI 与 CPI 修复预期及跨境资本回流带来的资金支持， 盈利能力有望提升，预计 2026 年制造与消费行业将在价格、盈利及估 值上实现显著修复。 AI 智能体作为新康波周期引擎，需与工业体系深度融合以实现利润回报。 全球流动性将持续涌向 AI 相关领域，并最终传导至具备优势的中国制造 业。 Q&A 顺周期板块近期逆势上涨的背后逻辑是什么？是否值得追逐这波投资机会？ 顺周期板块近期逆势上涨的背后逻辑主要是跨境资本回流带来的 ...

本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 自11月19日首席视点提出积极地等待后，市场处于相对僵持的状态。此后，我们陆续讨论了2026年流动 性、康波周期等五大周期，以及策略实施的问题。上期提出了锚定盈利、聚焦中游、工具适配的2026年 资产配置策略，其有效性根植于"风险溢价下行、盈利上行、结构分化"的三重共振。契合我们一直坚持 的"周期共振为锚、战略聚焦新动能、战术攻守兼备"的核心框架，在不确定性中锚定盈利确定性，在结 构分化中把握中游产业的稀缺价值。 在上述策略的实施中，还有一些基本的技术细节没有处理。这些细节对单一资产收益和风险边界的确 定，对股票、债券、黄金等不同资产性价比的认定具有决定性的作用，主要指资产配置的基准线。从宏 观策略的视角看，这些基准线由收益的基准线和风险的基准线组成。收益的基准线主要指基础因子中的 经济增长，GDP增长率和企业盈利率是最基本的分析因素。 风险的基准线主要指通货膨胀因子，CPI和PPI是主要观察对象。除此之外，无风险收益率是资产配置的 基准，这可以纳入流动性因子之中。投资者关注的流动性还包括资金的价格和资金的数量，资金的价格 包括贷款市场报价利率（LPR）以及人民币汇率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding economic cycles and adapting investment strategies accordingly, focusing on the interplay between risk and return, and the need for a dynamic asset allocation approach to navigate the evolving market landscape [1][2][3]. Group 1: Strategy Implementation - Investment strategies should be clearly planned at the end of each year, balancing proactive measures with responsive tactics to adapt to market changes [1]. - The essence of asset management strategies lies in seeking a dynamic balance among profitability, liquidity, and safety, transforming vague wealth goals into actionable frameworks [3]. Group 2: 2025 Strategy Review - The major shift in asset allocation for 2025 was driven by a change in risk premiums, transitioning from "conflict premium" to "repair premium" due to the stabilization of US-China trade tensions [4]. - AI+ technology is identified as a core driver of structural opportunities across various sectors, enhancing production efficiency and creating a viable industrial dividend chain [5]. - A supportive funding environment characterized by abundant liquidity has facilitated the concentration of capital in high-certainty and high-growth areas, enhancing the returns on quality assets [6]. Group 3: 2026 Asset Allocation Strategy - The risk premium for Chinese assets is expected to continue its downward trend, supported by the stabilization of external conflicts and the resonance of institutional reforms [10]. - The liquidity environment is anticipated to shift from abundance to structural adaptation, with a focus on high-certainty sectors, necessitating a refined asset selection approach [11]. - The correlation between inflation and profitability is expected to highlight the value of yield strategies, making fixed-income assets a key choice for stable returns [12]. - The focus of fiscal policy is projected to shift towards stability and social welfare, emphasizing structural opportunities over total economic growth [13]. - The narrative-driven trading approach is expected to weaken, with a shift towards profitability verification as the primary driver for industry selection [14]. Group 4: Key Conclusions for 2026 - The effective asset allocation strategy for 2026 is rooted in the interplay of declining risk premiums, rising profitability, and structural differentiation [16]. - The focus will be on midstream industries, which are expected to benefit from improved profitability and resilience against demand fluctuations [17]. - The use of tools like ETFs will remain crucial for efficiently capturing structural opportunities in specific sectors [17].

科技竞赛打开估值上限——多行业联合人工智能 12 月报 20251209 摘要 2026 年端侧增长预计稳健，主要由苹果链和机器人链构成，苹果链受 益于折叠屏和新品，增长强劲，估值偏低，更具优势。关注立讯精密、 水晶光电等消费电子制造公司。 科创短期关注 2026 年业绩能否支撑现有估值，中长期结合康波周期和 中美科技竞赛判断。国内科创板块整体估值仍有上行空间，重点关注集 成电路、工业母机等领域。 Meta 的 AI 眼镜预计 2026 年出货量达 2000 万台以上，推荐关注歌尔 股份和水晶光电。OpenAI 收购 iO 公司后计划推出硬件产品，供应链值 得关注，包括立讯精密、信维通信等环节。 AI 竞争进入强推理和原生多模态阶段，kimi K2 thinking 模型在推理速 度和工具使用能力上大幅提升，训练成本远低于 OpenAI，定价策略也 更具优势。 Gemini 3 在数学、Agent 等领域为全球开源社区提供了全新标杆，实 现了学习构建和规划的突破，并在 LiveCode Bench Pro 测试中表现优 异。 Q&A 当前中美科技竞赛对 AI 板块估值有何影响？未来 AI 产业链的增长趋势如何 ...

Group 1 - The computer industry is entering a new phase of AI competition characterized by "strong reasoning + native multimodal" capabilities, with significant advancements from models like Kimi K2 Thinking, Gemini 3, and DeepSeek-V3.2 [1] - The demand for AI computing power is expected to grow due to the effectiveness of scaling laws in the electronics industry, with PCB demand likely to maintain high growth, driven by capacity release and product structure optimization [1] - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from concept validation to commercialization, presenting opportunities for key component and complete machine companies to benefit from a "Davis double hit" [1] Group 2 - The Science and Technology Innovation ETF (588360) tracks the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index (931643), which has a daily fluctuation of 20%, selecting 50 emerging industry stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity from the Sci-Tech and ChiNext boards [1] - The index focuses on companies with strong technological attributes and high growth potential, covering core sectors such as information technology, new energy, and biomedicine, aiming to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in China's frontier industries [1]

在瞬息万变的经济环境中，读懂趋势并踩准财富节奏无疑是成功的关键。今天我将深入分析如何理解经济周期、识别关键指标、把握新兴产业机会、构建个 人财富管理框架以及采取有效的防御策略，帮助读者在复杂多变的经济局势中稳如泰山，实现财富增长。 1. 经济周期的四个阶段 经济周期通常分为四个阶段：繁荣、衰退、萧条和回升。繁荣期经济增长迅速，企业和个人投资活跃；衰退期经济陷入停滞，失业率上升；萧条期经济进一 步恶化，市场信心低迷；回升期则是经济开始复苏，投资和消费逐渐回暖。 1. 宏观经济指标 读者需建立一个"三维数据雷达"，监控GDP增速与结构分解、物价与就业、政策风向标。2025年二季度，中国GDP同比增长4.8%，其中数字经济贡献率达到 42.3%，战略性新兴产业增速达15.6%。 2. 驱动经济周期的因素 技术革命是经济周期的主要驱动力。当前，我们正处于第五次康波周期，即新能源和人工智能革命的回升期。人性在经济周期中也起着重要作用，贪婪与恐 惧的情绪波动常常导致资产价格的过度波动，如历史上的荷兰郁金香狂热和2008年金融危机。 3. 当前经济周期的位置 2025年，全球经济呈现出"分化复苏"的格局。美国加息周期接近尾 ...

Strategy - The technology competition under the Kondratiev wave continues to open up valuation ceilings, with a focus on "bottleneck" and future industry high ground [14][15] - The current valuation of China's science and technology innovation is still lower than that during the internet boom in the 1990s, indicating potential for further upward movement [14][18] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes seizing the high ground of technological development, focusing on key areas such as integrated circuits and advanced manufacturing [14][19] Electronics - The scaling law remains effective, with the introduction of multi-modal and agent models expected to accelerate AI computing demand [8][15] - The PCB industry is anticipated to maintain high growth due to its heavy asset nature and product structure optimization, which can lead to non-linear performance improvements for companies [8][15] Computer - New models are being launched intensively, marking a shift in AI competition towards "strong reasoning + native multi-modal" capabilities [9][15] - Significant releases include Google's Gemini 3 and DeepSeek V3.2, which enhance multi-modal understanding and practical applications [9][15] Media - Long-term optimism for the acceleration of AI product applications and commercialization, with a focus on AI agents, companionship, multi-modal applications, education, and edge AI [9][15] Humanoid Robots - The industry is transitioning from concept validation to commercialization, with companies that have growth potential in key components or specific solutions likely to benefit [10][15] - Investment opportunities are identified in the incremental component sector, with a focus on aesthetic preferences in the market [10][15] Automotive - The launch of Horizon Robotics' HSD and J6P models marks a significant step in mass production, with companies like WeRide and Pony.ai also making strides in the market [10][15] - Recommendations include focusing on luxury car opportunities with strong product pipelines and valuation elasticity, as well as autonomous driving technologies [10][15] Selected Portfolio - The December selected portfolio includes upstream production tools like Zhuoyi Information, upstream computing infrastructure such as Jingwang Electronics, and downstream applications like Alibaba [11][15]