2026年开年以来，A股股票型ETF市场呈现鲜明分化格局。以沪深300ETF为代表的多只核心宽基产品遭遇大幅净流出达7957.56亿元，而有色金 属、电网设备、化工等赛道型行业主题ETF则持续获得资金青睐。 据Wind数据统计，截至1月27日，在年内17个交易日里，全市场771只行业主题ETF（含商品型ETF）累计净流入已达2271.84亿元，接近2025年全 年该类产品净流入总额（7385.40亿元）的三分之一，占比为30.76%。 4只沪深300ETF净流出居前 智通财经记者根据Wind数据统计发现，1月27日，全市场1317只可统计的股票型ETF（含跨境ETF）单日累计净流出为480.25亿元。年初至今，股 票型ETF累计净流出额达5974.45亿元。 从资金的整体流向来看，宽基ETF是"失血"主力。若仅筛选规模指数ETF（含跨境ETF），截至1月27日，其年初至今净流出额已高达7957.56亿 元。 仅1月27日当天，华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF、易方达沪深300ETF的单日净流出额分别为140.65亿元、119.24亿元；华夏沪深300ETF、华夏上证 50ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF的单日净流出额也均 ...

文 任泽平 2024年以来，股市气贯长虹、振奋人心，黄金白银爆发史诗级行情，背后是什么原因？未来还能涨多高？ 我在2021年提出"乱世黄金"，2024年9月提出"信心牛"，2025年提出"拥抱康波周期，大宗商品元年"，均被验证。 这些判断均是基于20多年对宏观周期的分析框架，宏观周期不同于短周期、技术层面的噪音分析，是看长远、看本质的更高维层面，坚持长 期主义和理性精神的判断。 1、对股市和房市的看法 拥抱康波周期，不要成为老登。 慢牛，就是老登负责慢，小登负责牛。 有了对康波周期的判断，当前这个世界发生的一切就都得到了解释：科技革命，AI爆发，大宗商品元年，地缘动荡，全球放水。 房地产市场显著回升还需要再等等 ，现在主要是促进止跌回稳，重点发展新基建、新质生产力，打造新引擎。 不要错过康波周期，这是我们这代人的红利，拥抱信心牛、科技牛和大宗商品。 房地产长期看人口，中期看土地，短期看金融。10多年前，我提出行业分析框架。2015年判断"一线房价翻一倍"，2020年判断"房地产将 出现历史性大顶"。有同学听了我的建议，前几年卖出房子，买入黄金和科技股。 本人对房地产市场的判断，一直追求专业、理性、负责任。 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 01 月 26 日 金属价格为何如此繁荣 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年第 3 期） 频率：每周 目前金属价格繁荣是供给逻辑的结果，新一轮技术革命的迹象越来越明显，那 么未来商品价格上涨可能会转换为需求逻辑，这意味着当前较弱的能源产品价 格也会重新进入上升通道。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 56 ——地方国资会议定调改革深 化，多元布局培育新质生产 力》2026-01-25 2、《地缘紧张此起彼伏——— 国际时政周评》2026-01-25 3、《开年投资呈现积极迹象— 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年 第 2 期）》2026-01-19 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1 月 26 日，以有色金属为代表的资源品价格继续创新高。其中，伦敦现货黄 金价格一度突破 5100 美元/盎 ...

Group 1: Key Trends in Technology and Industry - The first major trend is the explosion of autonomous driving, which is expected to solve urban traffic congestion, air pollution, and safety issues within the next 1-2 years. A unified driving standard through large models will enable millions of vehicles to reach or exceed the skill level of experienced drivers, representing a trillion-dollar market opportunity [2][14]. - The second trend involves the significant rise of humanoid robots, which will first take over dangerous and repetitive tasks in factories, then transition into homes as companions, and eventually evolve into silicon-based life forms that deeply understand human society [3][15]. - The third trend highlights breakthroughs in life sciences, where AI will dramatically enhance drug development, potentially curing diseases like cancer and ALS within 5-10 years, and extending human lifespan to 120 years [4][16]. - The fourth trend is the anticipated explosion of AI super applications, with AI assistants expected to become personal secretaries for everyone, covering all aspects of daily life, leading to the replacement of over 90% of existing apps [5][17]. - The fifth trend indicates the rise of China's strength in various sectors such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and power batteries, leveraging a strong supply chain and a market of 1.4 billion people for rapid commercialization [6][19]. - The sixth trend is the emergence of a new energy system characterized by "green electricity + energy storage," with China's installed capacity of green electricity surpassing coal, driving a surge in energy storage demand [7][20]. Group 2: Societal and Economic Trends - The seventh trend points to intensified geopolitical competition and a global arms race, with modern warfare evolving towards aerospace, information, and intelligence, focusing on military technology in aerospace and high-end equipment [8][21]. - The eighth trend discusses the revolution in the food industry driven by biotechnology, where mass production of proteins, starches, fruits, and vitamins will replace traditional agriculture, significantly reducing land use and air pollution [9][22]. - The ninth trend indicates the arrival of a post-real estate era, where the housing market will see a bifurcation: property prices in core areas with 20% population inflow may bottom out or even reach new highs, while areas with 80% population outflow will experience prolonged price declines [11][23]. - The tenth trend highlights the acceleration of aging and declining birth rates, with the baby boomer generation entering old age, creating opportunities in the silver economy and health industries, while declining birth rates will boost markets related to pets, single living, emotional well-being, and cost-effectiveness [12][24].

Group 1: Key Trends in Technology and Innovation - The first major trend is the explosion of autonomous driving, which is expected to solve urban traffic congestion, air pollution, and safety issues within the next 1-2 years. A unified driving standard through large models will enable millions of vehicles to reach or exceed the skill level of experienced drivers, representing a trillion-dollar market opportunity [2][14]. - The second trend involves the significant rise of humanoid robots, which will first take over dangerous and repetitive tasks in factories, then transition into homes as companions, and eventually evolve into silicon-based life forms that deeply understand human society [3][15]. - The third trend highlights breakthroughs in life sciences, where AI will dramatically enhance drug development, potentially curing diseases like cancer and ALS within 5-10 years, and extending human lifespan to 120 years [4][16]. - The fourth trend is the anticipated explosion of AI super applications, with AI assistants expected to become personal secretaries for everyone, covering all aspects of daily life, leading to the replacement of over 90% of existing apps [5][17]. Group 2: Energy and Environmental Trends - The sixth trend is the emergence of a new energy system characterized by "green electricity + energy storage." China's installed capacity of green electricity (solar and wind) has surpassed that of coal, driving a surge in energy storage demand. Solid-state batteries are becoming mainstream due to their high energy density, long range, and safety, leading to a boom in demand for new energy minerals like copper and lithium [7][20]. - The eighth trend indicates that biotechnology will revolutionize the food industry, with large-scale production of proteins, starches, fruits, and vitamins in factories, replacing traditional agriculture and significantly reducing land use and air pollution, thus aiding carbon neutrality and ecological restoration [9][22]. Group 3: Demographic and Economic Trends - The ninth trend points to the arrival of a post-real estate era, where the housing market will experience a bifurcation. In the long term, real estate prices in core areas, which will see a 20% population inflow, are expected to bottom out and potentially reach new highs in the medium term, while areas with an 80% population outflow will face prolonged price declines [11][23]. - The tenth trend addresses the accelerating aging and declining birth rates, with the baby boomer generation (born between 1962-1976) rapidly aging. This demographic shift will create significant opportunities in the silver economy and health industries, while declining birth rates will drive the rise of pet economies, single-person economies, emotional economies, and cost-effective economies [12][24].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 而铜铝等工业金属需关注供需格局。投资者应关注品种轮动，警惕波动风险。 南方基金崔蕾：当前资源板块并非完全由短期情绪驱动，而是处于"超级周期2.0"的进程中。 资源板块集体狂飙！ 2025年有色金属板块涨幅近90%，2026年初黄金、白银价格连续刷新历史纪录！ 【导读】基金经理解读2026年资源板块投资机会 来源：中国基金报 记者 方丽 孙晓辉 资源板块是否仍处于"超级周期"中？在逆全球化、供应链重构及主要央行持续购金的背景下，全球资金 配置资源股的逻辑发生了哪些根本性变化？未来哪些金属更具投资价值？ 南方基金有色金属ETF基金经理崔蕾、中欧资源精选混合基金经理叶培培、中银周期优选混合与中银稳 进策略混合基金经理郭昀松、长城周期优选基金经理陈子扬、创金合信资源主题基金经理黄超以及诺德 基金研究员孙小明等六位资深投研人士一致认为，当前资源板块并非完全由短期情绪驱动，而是处 于"超级周期2.0"的进程中，价格景气周期远未终结。 这些基金经理指出，逆全球化背景下，资源品战略配置价值凸显。但经历前期一轮大涨后，后续更多机 会可能将集中在板块内部的 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The report indicates that China's economy is expected to enter a phase of prosperity in 2026, with a strong ability to create wealth reflected in a projected GDP growth of 5.0% for 2025, supported by a 5.5% increase in exports despite global trade barriers [6][7] - Nominal GDP growth is under pressure but shows signs of marginal improvement, with a quarterly growth of 3.8% in Q4 2025, indicating a recovery in cash flow and potential for further recovery in 2026 due to capital repatriation and monetary easing [7][9] - Consumer spending is identified as a key area for growth, with significant potential for recovery as policies to support consumption are expected to be optimized, although the consumer balance sheets remain under pressure [8][11] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report maintains a positive outlook on major assets such as AH shares and government bonds, suggesting that A-shares will reach new highs post "spring excitement," with recommended sector allocations in non-ferrous metals, consumer goods, and high-end manufacturing [6][12] - The acquisition of a 11.94% stake in Shengang Securities by Ruida Futures is seen as a strategic move to enhance wealth management capabilities and strengthen the synergy between securities and futures, with a projected net profit increase of 30.1% to 498 million yuan by 2025 [2][15] - In the beauty and healthcare sector, Juzi Bio is positioned for growth with the approval of innovative medical devices, projecting EPS growth from 1.82 yuan in 2025 to 2.46 yuan in 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [3][19] Group 3: Market Trends and Sector Analysis - The North Exchange market is experiencing a rotation with a focus on sectors like commercial aerospace and technology, suggesting structural opportunities in specialized sectors such as semiconductors and robotics, driven by favorable policies and liquidity changes [4][24] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring liquidity changes and market style shifts, recommending investments in leading companies within sectors that benefit from clear policy support [4][24] - The beauty and healthcare industry is entering a new growth phase driven by technological advancements and a strong product pipeline, with Juzi Bio leveraging its platform for competitive advantage [3][19]

我在最近一个月研究中，越来越确定一件事。 AI，已经不是实验室里的花架子，而是进入到大规模应用，我们正站在一个比2000年互联网、2010年移动互联网更猛的大风口上。 我们用"康波周期"的规律，就能看得更明白。 02 我们先来看康波周期什么？跟我们有什么关系？ 康波周期由苏联经济学家尼古拉・康德拉季耶夫在1920年代提出，他通过分析英、法、美等国1780年以来的价格、利率、工业产出等数据，发现经济存在 一种"50-60年"的长期波动规律，这就是康波周期。 它有两个要点： 1、经济每隔50-60年就会换个发动机，这个发动机就是新技术，而非短期政策或市场波动。 01 2、周期内最大的财富机会，出现在"新技术从实验室走向大规模应用"的阶段，比如说我们当前AI所处的关键节点。 我们看前几轮的康波周期就更直观了。 第一轮是蒸汽机时代（1780s-1840s）：以前织布靠人工，在纺织机、蒸汽机的帮助下，工业效率大幅提升，英国也成了"日不落帝国"。 第二轮是电气化时代（1840s-1900s）：电灯、电报以及内燃机的出现，让德、美逐步超过英国，当时搞电力设备、汽车的，比如福特，就是那轮周期的 龙头。 第三轮是汽车和计算机时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of embracing the current technological Kondratiev wave, likening it to a "supersonic tsunami" and suggesting that understanding this cycle can help navigate the complexities of the modern world [1] Group 1: Kondratiev Wave Insights - The Kondratiev wave is presented as a strategic perspective that allows for long-term thinking while addressing short-term challenges, helping to simplify complex situations and clarify essential logic [1] - Current global events, including technological revolutions, the AI explosion, commodity market dynamics, and geopolitical tensions, can be explained through the lens of the Kondratiev cycle [1] Group 2: Future Economic Outlook - The overall judgment for 2026 includes expectations of relaxed macroeconomic policies, structural economic prosperity, a structural bull market in stocks, a significant explosion of AI applications, and a notable year for commodities [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the **steel industry** and its investment value within the context of China's economic transition and industrialization phases [1][25]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Transition**: China is transitioning from an industrialization maturity phase to a mass consumption phase, with economic growth increasingly reliant on consumer spending and government consumption rather than investment [2][26]. - **Capital Market Dynamics**: The current bull market is characterized by an oversupply of capital in society, with funds flowing into the stock market through various channels, including household savings, institutional asset allocation, corporate buybacks, and overseas hot money [14][9]. - **Investment Opportunities**: In a low-interest-rate environment, value investment opportunities arise, particularly in mature industries like steel, where companies are increasing dividends and buybacks, injecting new capital into the stock market [12][4]. - **Global Capital Flows**: The disarray in the U.S. monetary credit system may lead to a reallocation of global capital, potentially benefiting emerging markets like China if the Federal Reserve implements quantitative easing [13][14]. - **Valuation Methods**: Different stages of the industry lifecycle require different valuation methods. In mature phases, focus should be on the reset cost method rather than relying solely on PE or PB ratios [19][15]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Household Savings Impact**: The shift in household savings from real estate to stable income products like savings and dividend insurance has significantly impacted the capital market, leading to increased asset allocation in equities [10][11]. - **Insurance Sector Growth**: The insurance sector in China has substantial growth potential, with a projected increase in equity asset allocation as bond yields fail to match liabilities [11]. - **Steel Industry Competitiveness**: Evaluating steel companies' competitiveness involves analyzing metrics such as labor costs, production efficiency, and product pricing, which reflect their market positioning [17][18]. - **Investment Strategy**: A bottom-buying strategy for cyclical stocks should focus on reset costs rather than traditional valuation metrics, especially in volatile industries like steel [19][20]. Future Outlook - **Economic Growth Projections**: The overall economic growth rate is expected to stabilize around 3.5% in the coming years, with government consumption playing a crucial role in supporting demand-side reforms [2][41]. - **Steel Demand Trends**: Despite a decline in real estate demand, China's steel production remains robust due to upgrades in machinery and manufacturing, indicating resilience in the sector [27][54]. - **Investment Value in Steel Stocks**: Steel stocks are currently undervalued, with potential for significant returns if supply-side reforms are effectively implemented [56]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and arguments presented in the conference call records, highlighting the steel industry's dynamics and investment potential within the broader context of China's economic landscape.