光大期货指出，市场目前等待美联储12月议息会议结果，情绪谨慎，隔夜市场美股回落，美元盘中重回 99点，十年期美债收益率创两个多月新高，黄金价格承压，在美联储重磅议息会议前夕，黄金或维持高 位震荡。 12月9日，市场完全消化降息预期，叠加降息会议前市场情绪谨慎，纽约金价早盘震荡调整，午后直线 跳水一度跌破4200美元。截至A股收盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4209美元/盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏 (518850)跌0.71%，黄金股ETF(159562)跌3.28%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)跌3.27%。 12月FOMC前，市场集中关注利率前瞻指引、点阵图、是否重启扩表，以及美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新 闻发布会的表态，这些将为未来的降息路径提供更多线索，从而推动美元走势，并为无收益的黄金带来 新的方向性动力。同时交易员现在关注周二美国经济数据——包括ADP周度就业变动和JOLTS职位空 缺。数据可能影响美元价格动态，并为金价提供一些动力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to rise initially and then decline, driven by the current liquidity cycle not being over [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The upcoming year will see a change in the Federal Reserve chair, which is contributing to a tight short-term funding market in the U.S. [1] - Short-term interest rates are currently higher than the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate, indicating a need for the Fed to lower interest rates next week [1] - The Federal Reserve has abandoned its plan to reduce its balance sheet, which is currently around $6 trillion, due to issues in the repurchase market [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The potential for the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet again could lead to new heights, resulting in an increase in risk asset prices [1] - The current market conditions suggest that shorting risk assets may not be a favorable strategy, as there is a belief that risk assets will rise before eventually falling [1]

Group 1: US Economy and Market - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is losing independence, caught in a "trilemma" due to high government debt, requiring bond purchases to finance fiscal deficits, which complicates decision-making regarding economic growth, high inflation, and financial stability [1] - The US economic cycle is entering a late stage, with a divergence between the semiconductor cycle and the broader economy, as private credit defaults rise and consumer confidence hits historical lows, indicating risks of economic slowdown [2][3] - The global trade war initiated by Trump has not improved the US trade deficit, and the increasing fiscal deficit, projected to exceed $40 trillion, is expected to benefit precious metals and commodities [3] Group 2: Chinese Economy and Market - Positive signals in the Chinese macro economy include industrial profits growing over 20% for two consecutive months, with high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors emerging as new growth engines, offsetting real estate sector declines [4] - Policy shifts are evident, with liquidity and exchange rate support emerging as the government aims to reverse negative economic expectations, leading to a potential capital inflow and RMB appreciation [5] - The Chinese market is entering a strong phase, with listed company profit growth recovering and valuations remaining at historical lows, suggesting that the market performance in 2026 may exceed expectations [6][7] Group 3: Global Asset Allocation - Precious metals like gold and silver remain important long-term hedges against dollar depreciation, while oil prices are expected to strengthen in the next three to six months, reflecting the late stage of the economic cycle [8] - The US stock market is at a 35-year cyclical peak, increasing the risk of bubbles, while the Chinese market, due to economic transformation, improved liquidity, and valuation advantages, is becoming a key focus for global asset allocation [8]

Macro Economic Overview - China's CPI year-on-year growth has turned positive, driven by rising food prices and core inflation, with the core CPI growth reaching a six-month high of 1.2% [5] - PPI recorded its first month-on-month increase in a year, with a year-on-year decline narrowing, indicating a potential improvement in profitability for leading enterprises [5] - China's exports have significantly declined in October, particularly to developed countries, highlighting increasing economic growth pressures [6] Industry Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 59.5% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24% [6] - The healthcare sector has seen a recent pullback of 10% since October, presenting opportunities in undervalued stocks [6] - The demand for innovative drug research and development is recovering, supported by capital market financing and increased overseas clinical trials [6] Company Analysis - BeiGene (百济神州) has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with a strong sales growth trend driven by its drug Zanu, which is gaining market share in the CLL market [10] - The company achieved a revenue of $3.81 billion in the first nine months of 2025, a 43% year-on-year increase, and expects to exceed its revenue guidance for the fiscal year [10] - BeiGene's operational efficiency has improved, with a reduction in sales and management expenses as a percentage of product sales, leading to a net profit of $125 million in Q3 2025 [10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a cautious approach in the healthcare sector, focusing on undervalued stocks such as 三生制药 (3SBio), 固生堂 (Gusongtang), and others [9] - BeiGene is rated as a "Buy" with a target price raised to $392.43, reflecting its strong market position and growth potential in the CLL market [12] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (华虹半导体) reported a record revenue of $635 million in Q3 2025, with a maintained "Hold" rating and a target price of HKD 68, indicating that its valuation is already reflected in the current market price [12]

Core Insights - A severe liquidity crisis erupted in the U.S. financial markets in November, causing global market turmoil and significant asset sell-offs [3][5][12] - The crisis is attributed to the Federal Reserve's inability to continue its quantitative easing policies, leading to a lack of trust in U.S. debt and a tightening of liquidity [7][12][29] Group 1: Market Reactions - The liquidity crisis led to a dramatic sell-off in global markets, with Japan's stock market dropping 4% and South Korea's by 5% on the same day [5][12] - U.S. financial institutions began liquidating assets in Asia to recover cash, resulting in a surge in the U.S. dollar and a sell-off of other currencies like the yen and won [5][7] Group 2: Underlying Issues - The U.S. faces three major challenges: excessive national debt raising doubts about repayment, government shutdowns reducing market liquidity, and the emergence of stablecoins diverting funds from traditional banks [13][19][21] - Bank reserves have fallen below $3 trillion, nearing a critical threshold identified by Federal Reserve officials, indicating a severe liquidity crunch [15][17] Group 3: Government and Political Dynamics - The government shutdown is a result of political conflicts over healthcare spending, with implications for market stability and potential impacts on the upcoming elections [25][27] - If the government resumes spending, it could temporarily inject $700 billion into the market, but this would not address the underlying issues of fiscal sustainability [27][29] Group 4: Future Implications - The current trajectory of U.S. fiscal policy, including potential tax cuts and increased spending, could exacerbate the national deficit and undermine confidence in the dollar [29][31] - Investment in sectors like AI, while promising, may not translate into broader economic benefits, risking the creation of financial bubbles similar to past crises [31][33] Group 5: Global Context - The liquidity crisis in the U.S. is not just a national issue but poses a significant challenge to the global financial order, with potential repercussions for international markets [36][37]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve may soon need to expand its balance sheet through asset purchases to meet liquidity demands in the banking system [1][2] - The Fed has officially ended its three-year balance sheet reduction process, which began in 2022, reversing the large-scale asset purchases made during the pandemic [2] - The current balance sheet level is stabilized at approximately $6.6 trillion, following signals that the balance sheet reduction has been sufficient [2] Group 1 - Williams indicated that the Fed will begin a gradual asset purchase process when bank reserves drop from "slightly above adequate" to "adequate" levels [1] - Analysts expect the Fed may start expanding its holdings through asset purchases in the first quarter of next year [1] - Williams emphasized that purchasing bonds for maintaining adequate liquidity is a natural extension of the adequate reserves strategy and does not indicate a change in monetary policy stance [1] Group 2 - Williams is closely monitoring various market indicators related to the federal funds market, repo market, and payments to assess reserve demand [3] - He noted that determining when the Fed reaches the necessary reserve levels to inject funds into the system is quite challenging [3] - Recent pressures in the repo market and signs of reserves moving from "ample" to "adequate" suggest that reaching adequate reserve levels may not be far off [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has recently made significant moves by cutting interest rates twice within a month, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, and has announced a complete halt to its balance sheet reduction [1][2][3] - The rapid response from the Federal Reserve is attributed to the overwhelming national debt, which has surpassed $38 trillion, leading to substantial interest payments that consume a significant portion of federal revenue [4][6] - The halt in balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts are seen as reactive measures rather than proactive strategies, indicating a challenging economic environment [3][4] Group 2 - The easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to provide more flexibility for China's central bank, potentially allowing for more aggressive monetary easing without the risk of capital flight [8][9] - China's recent optimization of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system and the upcoming expansion of the Southbound ETF Connect are aimed at attracting foreign investment, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [9][10] - The inflow of foreign capital into Chinese markets is anticipated to increase, with estimates suggesting up to $200 billion could enter the Chinese stock market over the next 12 months [12][13] Group 3 - Investment strategies should focus on sectors that foreign investors are prioritizing, particularly technology and consumer goods, as these areas are expected to see significant growth [14][15] - The bond market is also highlighted as a safe investment option, with expectations of declining interest rates making government bonds an attractive choice for risk-averse investors [17][18] - The overall market environment is characterized by a shift in global capital flows, with opportunities arising for those who remain patient and strategic in their investment approach [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current overseas market has relatively scarce liquidity, leading to a general decline in major risk assets and weak performance of gold and silver prices. However, the tightening liquidity means a higher probability of subsequent expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, which will significantly drive up the prices of gold and silver. The release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period, but the Fed Chairman has explained the balance - sheet expansion. The October interest - rate meeting sent a signal that the December interest rate cut is still uncertain while strengthening the subsequent "interest rate cut + balance - sheet expansion" monetary policy approach. In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with the potential tightness in the physical market, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 5, 2025, Shanghai gold fell 1.14% to 908.92 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.17% to 11226.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 3941.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 46.90 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.1%, and the US dollar index was 100.19 [1] - From November 3 to November 4, 2025, the closing price of COMEX gold active contract dropped from 4013.70 dollars/ounce to 3941.30 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 1.80%; the trading volume increased from 22.38 million lots to 24.46 million lots, an increase of 9.30%. The closing price of COMEX silver active contract dropped from 47.91 dollars/ounce to 46.90 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 2.12%; the trading volume increased from 126.80 million lots to 135.28 million lots, an increase of 6.69% [5] 3.2 Market Analysis - The significant increase in the difference between the US SOFR rate and the EFFR shows that under the background of the US government shutdown, the US Treasury account occupies a large amount of funds, and the reserves on the Fed's liability side are scarce. The tightening liquidity is in line with Powell's previous speech, and the Fed will suspend balance - sheet reduction on December 1 [1] - In the silver physical market, although the premium of London silver relative to New York silver and the lease rate are relatively weak, the silver premium in India has significantly rebounded, indicating strong domestic silver demand in India [2] 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with the potential tightness in the physical market, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve, including interest rate cuts and the cessation of balance sheet reduction, signal a significant shift in global monetary policy dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the total reduction for the year to 0.5% [4]. - There is a market expectation for another similar rate cut in December, although the probability has slightly decreased [4]. - The Fed's decision to stop "balance sheet reduction" marks a transition from actively withdrawing liquidity to a potential resumption of balance sheet expansion [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The cessation of balance sheet reduction is seen as a positive development for the Chinese economy, which is currently facing downward pressure [9]. - The narrowing of interest rate differentials between the U.S. and China may provide the Chinese central bank with more room for rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [9]. - The adjustments in U.S. monetary policy are expected to trigger a series of reactions globally, affecting capital flows and exchange rates [9]. Group 3: Government Influence - There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly due to past interventions by the Trump administration [7]. - The administration's attempts to influence Fed policy could complicate the central bank's decision-making process and its ability to respond to economic conditions [7].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates for the second time this year, with the target range for the federal funds rate set between 3.75% and 4.00% [3] - The Fed announced a significant decision to stop the balance sheet reduction, which is a part of its monetary policy [34] Group 2 - The balance sheet refers to the financial statement that reflects all assets, liabilities, and equity of an entity at a specific date [7] - The equation for the balance sheet is assets = liabilities + equity, indicating that the left side always equals the right side [9] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction involves selling various bonds to decrease the size of its bond holdings, effectively pulling money out of circulation [32]