Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year, amidst a backdrop of mixed economic signals and internal divisions within the FOMC [3][4][14]. Economic Outlook - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with job growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate as of September. Inflation remains elevated, indicating persistent price pressures [5][7]. - The Fed has revised its economic growth forecast for this year upward by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%, and for 2026, the forecast was increased by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3% [6][7]. Inflation Dynamics - Inflation pressures are still significant, with the Fed projecting core PCE inflation at 3.0% for 2025, down 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates. Overall PCE inflation is expected to be 2.9% for this year [7][8]. - The Fed Chairman noted that tariffs imposed during the Trump administration have contributed to inflation, but he believes their impact will be temporary [7]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market remains resilient, with the unemployment rate projected at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, consistent with previous forecasts [7][8]. - Recent data indicates a trend of low hiring and low layoffs, although there are signs of increasing layoff pressures, with announced layoffs exceeding 1.1 million as of November [15]. Interest Rate Projections - The FOMC's interest rate projections remain unchanged, with a median rate of 3.4% for 2026, suggesting a potential rate cut next year [9][14]. - Internal divisions within the FOMC are evident, with some members advocating for maintaining rates while others support further cuts, reflecting uncertainty in future monetary policy [9][16]. Policy Outlook - The Fed is entering a wait-and-see mode, having cut rates by a total of 75 basis points since September, and is prepared to adjust rates based on new economic data [11][12]. - The Fed has announced a plan to restart short-term Treasury purchases to manage market liquidity, which had tightened recently [11][12].

期货研究报告|宏观政策 2025-12-09 美联储或"鹰派降息" ——美联储系列二十九 研究院 宏观组 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 宏观事件 核心观点 北京时间 2025 年 12 月 11 日凌晨 3 点，美联储将公布 12 月利率决议，并发布经济展望 报告（SEP）和利率点阵图。关注美联储是否调整 2026 年降息节奏和资产负债表政策。 ◼ 关注"鹰派降息"提供的市场空间 1）从经济增长角度，美国劳动力市场短期压力开始上升——11 月 ADP 就业单月减少 3.2 万，显示出经济动力不足的压力在上升。需要关注 12 月圣诞季消费对于预期的影响。 2）从通货膨胀角度，服务型通胀的下降已经开始趋稳，而商品型通胀的压力逐渐上升， 从核心通胀的角度，薪资增速继续强于生产力增速或削弱经济增长的动能。 3）美联储 12 月结束 QT，但 TOMO 操作量增加，市场对于美联储流动性供给增加的预 期抬升。结合财政扩张预计呈现短久期特征，美联储流动性管理或集中于短端。从时 间来看，12 月或 1 月或是相关政策预期释放的窗口，关注美联储主席 12 ...

这篇经济评论分析美日货币政策调整下，中国资产机遇在哪？未来两周全球金融市场注定不平静，日本要启动加息，美国则敲定了降息计划，两大经济体的 动作势必搅动全球流动性，普通人最关心的，还是这些变动会如何影响手里的资产。 美日货币"双响炮"：这次为啥不用慌？ 2024年7月底日本那次加息，至今让不少投资者心有余悸，当天日经指数直接暴跌13%，纳斯达克指数也跟着跌了3.4%，全球股市一片哀嚎。 眼看日本又要加息，市场难免担心噩梦重演，过去两年日本总共完成三次加息，2024年7月之后，2025年1月初又加了25个基点，幅度比前次还大，即便如 此，资本市场的反应却温和很多，加息后日经指数只跌了不到1%。 两次影响差别这么大，核心就在于市场预期不一样，2024年7月那次完全超出所有人预料，巨量套息交易瞬间转向，资金疯狂出逃，直接引发恐慌性踩踏。 吃过一次亏的日本央行也学聪明了，后来不管真要加息还是只是试探，都会提前释放信号，就是为了敲打交易员降低杠杆，引导资金多渠道配置。 比如把部分资金从股市转到债市，这样一来市场波动自然就小了，这么操作下来，后续加息引发大幅震荡的可能性也大大降低。 这次加息也是老套路，2025年12月1日 ...

Group 1 - The market has fully digested the interest rate cut expectations, leading to cautious sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting, resulting in fluctuations in gold prices [1] - As of the close of A-shares, COMEX gold futures traded around $4209 per ounce, with the China Gold ETF (518850) down 0.71%, the gold stock ETF (159562) down 3.28%, and the non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) down 3.27% [1] - Market participants are focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting for guidance on interest rates, dot plots, potential resumption of balance sheet expansion, and comments from Fed Chair Powell, which will provide insights into future rate cuts and influence the dollar's movement [1] Group 2 - Traders are also monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including ADP weekly employment changes and JOLTS job openings, which may impact dollar price dynamics and provide some momentum for gold prices [1] - According to Everbright Futures, market sentiment remains cautious as the U.S. stock market retreated overnight, the dollar index returned to 99 points, and the ten-year Treasury yield reached a two-month high, putting pressure on gold prices [1] - Ahead of the significant FOMC meeting, gold prices are expected to maintain high volatility [1]

Group 1 - The market has fully digested the interest rate cut expectations, leading to cautious sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting, resulting in fluctuations in New York gold prices [1] - As of the close of A-shares, COMEX gold futures traded around $4209 per ounce, with the Huaxia Gold ETF down 0.71%, the Gold Stock ETF down 3.28%, and the Nonferrous Metals ETF down 3.27% [1] - Market participants are focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting for guidance on interest rate forecasts, dot plots, potential resumption of balance sheet expansion, and comments from Fed Chair Powell, which will provide insights into future rate cut paths and influence the dollar's movement [1] Group 2 - Traders are also monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including ADP weekly employment changes and JOLTS job openings, which may impact dollar price dynamics and provide some momentum for gold prices [1] - According to Everbright Futures, market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the Fed's December meeting, with U.S. stocks retreating overnight, the dollar returning to 99 points, and the ten-year Treasury yield reaching a two-month high, putting pressure on gold prices [1] - Gold is expected to maintain high-level fluctuations in the lead-up to the significant FOMC meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to rise initially and then decline, driven by the current liquidity cycle not being over [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The upcoming year will see a change in the Federal Reserve chair, which is contributing to a tight short-term funding market in the U.S. [1] - Short-term interest rates are currently higher than the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate, indicating a need for the Fed to lower interest rates next week [1] - The Federal Reserve has abandoned its plan to reduce its balance sheet, which is currently around $6 trillion, due to issues in the repurchase market [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The potential for the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet again could lead to new heights, resulting in an increase in risk asset prices [1] - The current market conditions suggest that shorting risk assets may not be a favorable strategy, as there is a belief that risk assets will rise before eventually falling [1]

Group 1: US Economy and Market - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is losing independence, caught in a "trilemma" due to high government debt, requiring bond purchases to finance fiscal deficits, which complicates decision-making regarding economic growth, high inflation, and financial stability [1] - The US economic cycle is entering a late stage, with a divergence between the semiconductor cycle and the broader economy, as private credit defaults rise and consumer confidence hits historical lows, indicating risks of economic slowdown [2][3] - The global trade war initiated by Trump has not improved the US trade deficit, and the increasing fiscal deficit, projected to exceed $40 trillion, is expected to benefit precious metals and commodities [3] Group 2: Chinese Economy and Market - Positive signals in the Chinese macro economy include industrial profits growing over 20% for two consecutive months, with high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors emerging as new growth engines, offsetting real estate sector declines [4] - Policy shifts are evident, with liquidity and exchange rate support emerging as the government aims to reverse negative economic expectations, leading to a potential capital inflow and RMB appreciation [5] - The Chinese market is entering a strong phase, with listed company profit growth recovering and valuations remaining at historical lows, suggesting that the market performance in 2026 may exceed expectations [6][7] Group 3: Global Asset Allocation - Precious metals like gold and silver remain important long-term hedges against dollar depreciation, while oil prices are expected to strengthen in the next three to six months, reflecting the late stage of the economic cycle [8] - The US stock market is at a 35-year cyclical peak, increasing the risk of bubbles, while the Chinese market, due to economic transformation, improved liquidity, and valuation advantages, is becoming a key focus for global asset allocation [8]

Macro Economic Overview - China's CPI year-on-year growth has turned positive, driven by rising food prices and core inflation, with the core CPI growth reaching a six-month high of 1.2% [5] - PPI recorded its first month-on-month increase in a year, with a year-on-year decline narrowing, indicating a potential improvement in profitability for leading enterprises [5] - China's exports have significantly declined in October, particularly to developed countries, highlighting increasing economic growth pressures [6] Industry Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 59.5% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24% [6] - The healthcare sector has seen a recent pullback of 10% since October, presenting opportunities in undervalued stocks [6] - The demand for innovative drug research and development is recovering, supported by capital market financing and increased overseas clinical trials [6] Company Analysis - BeiGene (百济神州) has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with a strong sales growth trend driven by its drug Zanu, which is gaining market share in the CLL market [10] - The company achieved a revenue of $3.81 billion in the first nine months of 2025, a 43% year-on-year increase, and expects to exceed its revenue guidance for the fiscal year [10] - BeiGene's operational efficiency has improved, with a reduction in sales and management expenses as a percentage of product sales, leading to a net profit of $125 million in Q3 2025 [10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a cautious approach in the healthcare sector, focusing on undervalued stocks such as 三生制药 (3SBio), 固生堂 (Gusongtang), and others [9] - BeiGene is rated as a "Buy" with a target price raised to $392.43, reflecting its strong market position and growth potential in the CLL market [12] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (华虹半导体) reported a record revenue of $635 million in Q3 2025, with a maintained "Hold" rating and a target price of HKD 68, indicating that its valuation is already reflected in the current market price [12]

Core Insights - A severe liquidity crisis erupted in the U.S. financial markets in November, causing global market turmoil and significant asset sell-offs [3][5][12] - The crisis is attributed to the Federal Reserve's inability to continue its quantitative easing policies, leading to a lack of trust in U.S. debt and a tightening of liquidity [7][12][29] Group 1: Market Reactions - The liquidity crisis led to a dramatic sell-off in global markets, with Japan's stock market dropping 4% and South Korea's by 5% on the same day [5][12] - U.S. financial institutions began liquidating assets in Asia to recover cash, resulting in a surge in the U.S. dollar and a sell-off of other currencies like the yen and won [5][7] Group 2: Underlying Issues - The U.S. faces three major challenges: excessive national debt raising doubts about repayment, government shutdowns reducing market liquidity, and the emergence of stablecoins diverting funds from traditional banks [13][19][21] - Bank reserves have fallen below $3 trillion, nearing a critical threshold identified by Federal Reserve officials, indicating a severe liquidity crunch [15][17] Group 3: Government and Political Dynamics - The government shutdown is a result of political conflicts over healthcare spending, with implications for market stability and potential impacts on the upcoming elections [25][27] - If the government resumes spending, it could temporarily inject $700 billion into the market, but this would not address the underlying issues of fiscal sustainability [27][29] Group 4: Future Implications - The current trajectory of U.S. fiscal policy, including potential tax cuts and increased spending, could exacerbate the national deficit and undermine confidence in the dollar [29][31] - Investment in sectors like AI, while promising, may not translate into broader economic benefits, risking the creation of financial bubbles similar to past crises [31][33] Group 5: Global Context - The liquidity crisis in the U.S. is not just a national issue but poses a significant challenge to the global financial order, with potential repercussions for international markets [36][37]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve may soon need to expand its balance sheet through asset purchases to meet liquidity demands in the banking system [1][2] - The Fed has officially ended its three-year balance sheet reduction process, which began in 2022, reversing the large-scale asset purchases made during the pandemic [2] - The current balance sheet level is stabilized at approximately $6.6 trillion, following signals that the balance sheet reduction has been sufficient [2] Group 1 - Williams indicated that the Fed will begin a gradual asset purchase process when bank reserves drop from "slightly above adequate" to "adequate" levels [1] - Analysts expect the Fed may start expanding its holdings through asset purchases in the first quarter of next year [1] - Williams emphasized that purchasing bonds for maintaining adequate liquidity is a natural extension of the adequate reserves strategy and does not indicate a change in monetary policy stance [1] Group 2 - Williams is closely monitoring various market indicators related to the federal funds market, repo market, and payments to assess reserve demand [3] - He noted that determining when the Fed reaches the necessary reserve levels to inject funds into the system is quite challenging [3] - Recent pressures in the repo market and signs of reserves moving from "ample" to "adequate" suggest that reaching adequate reserve levels may not be far off [3]