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收益率曲线陡峭化
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债市日报:5月9日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 15:28
新华财经北京5月9日电(王菁)债市周五(5月9日)偏弱整理,经过前两日逐渐消化系列政策影响,期 限券市场走势逐渐回稳,银行间现券收益率上行0.5BP左右,国债期货主力多数小幅收跌;公开市场单 日净投放770亿元,资金利率持续走低。 机构认为,货币市场利率有望迎来新一轮补降,短端债券确定性强,收益率曲线或趋于陡峭化。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数下跌,30年期主力合约涨0.02%报120.370,10年期主力合约跌0.01%报109.060,5年 期主力合约跌0.07%报106.095,2年期主力合约跌0.01%报102.346。 【海外债市】 北美市场方面,当地时间5月8日,美债收益率集体上涨,2年期美债收益率涨10.99BPs报3.880%,3年期 美债收益率涨13.08BPs报3.873%,5年期美债收益率涨13.79BPs报3.999%,10年期美债收益率涨 12.48BPs报4.392%,30年期美债收益率涨7.71BPs报4.850%。 亚洲市场方面,日债收益率普遍延续上行,10年期日债收益率尾盘上行3.8BPs至1.363%。 欧元区市场方面,当地时间5月8日,10年期法债收益率涨4.3BPs报 ...
美银证券:中国央行扣动宽松扳机
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 08:05
Monetary Policy and Bond Market - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) implemented a long-awaited easing policy by lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and reducing the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points to 1.4% [1][7] - Following the announcement, the yield curve steepened due to market reactions, with the 2-year and 10-year Chinese government bond yield spread narrowing to 16 basis points, close to a ten-year low [10][1] - Bank of America anticipates further steepening of the yield curve due to increased supply of long-term bonds from special government bonds and favorable liquidity conditions, with the possibility of the PBOC restarting bond purchase operations [1][10] Foreign Exchange and Capital Flows - The net foreign exchange settlement balance for banks improved from -6.7 billion USD in February to 0.1 million USD in March, indicating a balanced supply and demand for USD [2][30] - The comprehensive net foreign exchange settlement amount reached 8.4 billion USD in March, marking the first positive value since October 2024 [4][33] - In March, the merchandise trade net foreign exchange settlement surplus increased from 16.7 billion USD in February to 25.5 billion USD, while the net foreign exchange settlement deficits for services and income remained stable [37][34] Bond Market Dynamics - The average rates for DR007 and R007 in April were 1.82% and 1.9%, respectively, indicating a further easing of the funding environment [7] - The PBOC has not conducted government bond transactions in the secondary market for four consecutive months, but is expected to engage in net bond purchases in the coming months to align with a large-scale bond issuance plan [16][19] - The net supply of government bonds decreased significantly in April compared to previous months, with a total net supply of approximately 4.85 trillion RMB, which is 35% of the annual issuance estimate [21][19]