2 月社融增量 2.23 万亿元(Wind 一致预期 2.65 万亿元)，同比多增 7374 亿 元，存量同比增速 8.2%，较上月末+0.2pct。随隐债置换加速推进，2 月政 府债供给多增是支撑社融增长的主要力量。信贷需求仍有待提振，票据融资 冲量。政策预期向好，夯实经济回稳基础，推荐个股：1）质优个股，如招 行，兴业，成都，苏州，上海，渝农 AH、宁波；2）港股大行股息优势突出、 估值性价比高，如建行 H，工行 H、交行 H。 信贷同比少增，票据融资冲量 2 月贷款新增 1.01 万亿元(Wind 一致预期 1.24 万亿元)，同比少增 4400 亿 元。2 月贷款存量同比增速+7.3%，较 1 月末-0.2pct。居民贷款减少 3891 亿元，同比少减 2016 亿元，其中短贷、中长贷分别同比少减 2127 亿元、 多减 112 亿元。《政府工作报告》中将"全方位扩大国内需求"放在 2025 年工作任务首位，后续居民消费需求或有改善。企业贷款新增 1.04 万亿元， 同比少增 5300 亿元，其中短贷、中长贷、票据融资分别同比少增 2000 亿 元、少增 7500 亿元、多增 4460 亿元。2 月底 ...

Group 1: Liquidity and Market Conditions - The liquidity pressure has eased slightly this week, but it cannot be termed as relaxed, with overnight funding rates decreasing and 7-day funding rates slightly increasing[3] - The average net supply in the banking system from February 24 to February 28 was 1.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 335.7 billion yuan compared to the previous week[4] - The central bank's recent open market operations indicate a supportive stance, with a net injection of 433.1 billion yuan during the week[26] Group 2: Money Market Trends - As of February 28, the average rates for DR001 and DR007 decreased by 9.5 basis points and 8.9 basis points to 1.86% and 2.13%, respectively[4] - The average daily transaction volume for interbank pledged repos was 49,981 billion yuan, an increase of 38.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week[4] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) from February 24 to February 28 totaled 715.2 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of -382.8 billion yuan, indicating increased issuance but reduced net financing[5] Group 3: Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The net payment for government bonds next week is projected to be 248.6 billion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous week, which may have a limited impact on liquidity[32] - The upcoming government bond issuance includes 2.63 billion yuan in national bonds and 2.175 billion yuan in local bonds, with a total issuance of 4.805 billion yuan[32] Group 4: Risk Factors - Key risk factors include policy uncertainty, unexpected changes in the economic fundamentals, and geopolitical risks from overseas[7]