Market Overview - The market showed a "two-headed" trend during the May Day to Dragon Boat Festival period, but the customer flow (lead volume) gradually weakened after May Day, with a brief spike during the Dragon Boat Festival followed by another decline [1] - The passenger car sales off-season has returned to the pre-2020 model, with this year's off-season starting earlier in mid to late May, compared to early June in previous years [2] - The June market is expected to be weaker compared to May, with some brands potentially seeing short-term highlights due to new car launches or strong incentive policies, but the overall market is showing a clear downward trend month-on-month [3] Brand Sales Observations - BYD: Daily average orders have decreased by 10%-15% year-on-year, with retail pressure significant and main brand order volume maintaining at around 60,000 to 70,000 units [4] - Geely Galaxy: Achieved approximately 120,000 units in May, with a target of 120,000 units for June. Recent weekly orders are around 18,000 to 20,000 units due to pricing concerns [5] - Li Auto: The L6 new version launched in May, with weekly orders dropping to about 10,000 units after a spike during the Dragon Boat Festival [6] - AITO Wenjie: Recent orders mainly driven by the Greater Bay Area, with a decline in order volume when excluding orders from the Greater Bay Area and intermediaries [7] - Leap Motor: Orders remain relatively stable, with weekly orders around 8,000 to 9,000 units [8] - Zeekr: Orders are around 3,000 to 3,500 units [9] - XPeng: Total orders last week were about 11,000 units, with the MONA03 accounting for 6,000 to 7,000 units [10] - Tesla: Orders are highly volatile, with promotional measures leading to a rebound in orders [11] Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - The industry needs to endure the off-season in June and July, with some brands adjusting their semi-annual targets [13] - Fuel vehicles, especially B-class sedans/SUVs, may see a surge in sales around the half-year assessment [14] - Negative factors include tightening or halting of vehicle trade-in subsidies in cities like Zhengzhou, which may lengthen consumer decision-making cycles [15] - Consumer behavior shows a clear trend of downgrading, with a significant increase in A0-class electric vehicles, while mid-to-high-end vehicle consumption remains cautious [16] New Energy Vehicle Penetration and Competition - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles fluctuates between 50%-55%, with traditional fuel vehicles still showing resilience [17] - Fuel vehicles are favored for their cost-effectiveness, long-term stability, and durability, while electric vehicles face challenges due to rapid technological iterations and concerns over second-hand value [18] - Brands like Leap Motor and Geely are primarily capturing market share from BYD, with BYD's market share dropping from nearly 40% to 25%-28% [19] Policy Impact on Vehicle Purchase Tax - The expected reduction of the vehicle purchase tax exemption from 30,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan by 2026 will lower the taxable price threshold significantly [20] - The current average transaction price of passenger cars is around 168,000 yuan, with the new policy potentially covering about 75% of sales [20] Key New Vehicle Launches 1. XPeng G7: Positioned between G6 and G9, expected to sell 8,000 to 10,000 units monthly if priced reasonably [21][22] 2. Xiaomi YU7: High initial interest with a projected monthly sales of over 25,000 units [23][24][25][28] 3. Li Auto i8: Aiming for over 5,000 units monthly, with a competitive pricing strategy [29][30][31] 4. Li Auto MEGA Home Edition: High demand for the top configuration, with a unique market position [32] Export and Market Dynamics - BYD has shown strong export performance in regions like Europe, America, and South Asia due to its competitive pricing and parameter advantages [33] - The competition in the 300,000+ mid-to-large SUV market is primarily targeting the share of joint venture and foreign fuel vehicles [34] - The market capacity for fuel vehicles in 2024 is estimated at around 530,000 units, with new energy vehicles expected to capture an additional 100,000+ units [35]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic wholesale sales of passenger cars in May showed a month-on-month and year-on-year increase, with a notable decrease in inventory by 110,000 units, and strong export performance. It is recommended to focus on companies that are in a new car cycle and are leading in intelligence [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In May, the wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 2.31 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8% and a month-on-month increase of 5.5% [2]. - Cumulative wholesale sales from January to May totaled 10.784 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [2]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - The overall inventory of passenger car manufacturers decreased by 110,000 units in May, compared to a decrease of 90,000 units in the same month last year [2]. - The cumulative inventory for the industry from January to May remained flat compared to the same period last year, marking a change from the continuous inventory reduction seen in the past two years [2]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Insights - In May, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 52.6%, an increase of 8.0 percentage points year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points month-on-month [3]. - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.216 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 33.0% and a month-on-month increase of 7.0% [3]. - Cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to May reached 5.2 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 40.0% [3]. Group 4: Export Performance - In May, the total export of passenger vehicles (including complete vehicles and CKD) was 448,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.5% and a month-on-month increase of 6.0% [3]. - Cumulative exports from January to May reached 2 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [3]. - The export of new energy passenger vehicles was 200,000 units in May, showing a year-on-year increase of 80.9% and accounting for 44.6% of total passenger vehicle exports, an increase of 16.6 percentage points year-on-year [3].

Group 1 - China has maintained its position as the world's largest automobile exporter for two consecutive years, highlighting the industry's growing importance, comparable to real estate [1] - Industry leader Wei Jianjun has raised concerns about overcapacity and capital bubbles in the automotive sector, warning of an impending "Evergrande crisis" [3] - The automotive industry is facing significant transformation challenges, with three major trends expected to emerge in the next two years [3] Group 2 - The era of rapid price reductions for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is coming to an end, with significant price drops observed in recent years [5] - New regulations on battery production and procurement are expected to enhance the pricing power of NEVs, as safety and durability standards are raised [6][8] - Government policies aimed at stimulating consumption will likely lead to increased vehicle prices, supported by a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for automotive finance companies [10] Group 3 - The potential lifting of purchase restrictions in major cities could address inventory issues faced by car manufacturers and stimulate demand [12][14] - The automotive industry is projected to contribute significantly to tax revenues, which is crucial for local governments facing fiscal challenges [12] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China's market has exceeded 51%, indicating a mature market with potential for further growth [16] Group 4 - Technological advancements in smart features are driving the competitiveness of domestic NEVs, moving beyond traditional vehicle functionalities [16] - Rising fuel prices due to geopolitical tensions are expected to favor the sales of NEVs, as consumers seek alternatives [18] - The ongoing trade tensions may limit the market share of imported luxury fuel vehicles, benefiting domestic high-end NEV manufacturers [20] Group 5 - The automotive industry is recognized as a strategic sector representing China's manufacturing and consumption upgrades, with the potential for continued growth despite existing concerns [21] - The global popularity of Chinese automobiles is expected to enhance the international perception of China's economic prospects [23]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the new model, the Yuyue 07, by FAW Bestune is a strategic move to compete in the increasingly competitive plug-in hybrid compact SUV market, which is dominated by models from BYD and Geely [2][3]. Group 1: Product Launch and Features - The Yuyue 07 is positioned as a cost-effective plug-in hybrid SUV, with a price range of 99,800 to 129,900 yuan, making it more affordable than many competitors in the market [3][4]. - The vehicle is equipped with the "Zhuri Power BMP Super Electric Hybrid" technology, boasting a peak thermal efficiency of 45.21% and a power output of 168 kW, with a rapid mode switch of 0.3 seconds [4]. - The Yuyue 07 is designed to provide a high-quality travel experience for families, focusing on aspects such as design, range, energy consumption, performance, safety, comfort, and space [3][4]. Group 2: Market Context and Sales Performance - In 2024, FAW Bestune achieved cumulative sales of 150,777 units, a 25% year-on-year increase, with 82,872 units being electric vehicles, reflecting a 214% growth and a 55% penetration rate for new energy vehicles [5]. - The sales performance of the Yuyue 03, the first model in the Yuyue series, showed modest initial sales, with 459 units sold in the first month and 749 units in the following month, indicating potential for growth in the new energy segment [5]. - The success of the Yuyue 07 is critical for FAW Bestune's brand image and profitability in the new energy vehicle market, especially as the brand seeks to establish a stronger presence in this competitive landscape [5].

Group 1 - The total number of passenger cars from May 12 to May 18 was 390,000 units, representing a month-on-month decrease of 13.93% [1] - The total number of new energy vehicles (NEVs) sold during the same period was 218,000 units, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.5% [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 55.88% [1] Group 2 - BYD is expanding its market presence in Southeast Asia [8] - CATL is focusing on energy storage, with market growth outpacing that of power batteries [8]

Core Insights - The Chinese passenger car market experienced a significant structural price adjustment in the first four months of 2025, with a total retail of 6.872 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The average price of passenger cars in 2025 was 170,000 yuan, a decrease of 7000 yuan compared to 2024, with April 2025 showing a decline of 21,000 yuan year-on-year, marking the largest drop in nearly five years [1] Market Dynamics - The decline in prices is attributed to the increase in entry-level model sales due to government subsidies for scrapping and replacing old vehicles, leading to a shift in consumer preference towards mid-to-low-priced vehicles [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the market below 50,000 yuan reached 90% in April 2025, with pure electric models accounting for 86% of this segment [2] - In the high-end market (above 300,000 yuan), NEVs accounted for approximately 40%, with range-extended models being more prevalent than pure electric and hybrid models [2] Brand Performance - In the first four months of 2025, luxury brands maintained an average price of 366,000 yuan, while joint venture brands saw a slight increase to 174,000 yuan [3] - New force brands experienced a significant price drop of 36,000 yuan to 235,000 yuan, and domestic brands slightly decreased to 121,000 yuan [3] - Notably, the average price of NEVs across luxury, joint venture, and domestic brands surpassed that of their fuel counterparts, indicating a strong market position for NEV products [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees, stable domestic downstream demand, and the need to monitor US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis changes [1]. - Zinc prices may also have short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the expected improvement in concentrate supply and potential recovery of smelting supply, the previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation, and factors like US tariff negotiations and exchange rates need to be watched [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term. Although the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening, the better - than - expected result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation has a positive impact [1]. - Nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term, as there are both positive and negative factors in the nickel market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with high growth in power investment driven by the power grid, continuous growth in household appliance production, and potential for increased copper demand in the automotive sector due to higher new - energy penetration. The narrowing decline in real - estate data is also a factor. Short - term copper price fluctuations are affected by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price data is unavailable. The domestic basis is 380 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 9,577 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is 39.74 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 184,650 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 925 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data is narrowing. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation. Short - term zinc price fluctuations are influenced by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 195 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,725 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 22.38 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 165,175 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 1,875 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.07%. The Sino - US tariff negotiation result is better than expected, which is beneficial to non - ferrous demand and prices. Fundamentally, the future supply - demand of alumina is expected to be loose, but some manufacturers have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. Further decline in futures prices requires a continued weakening of bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers. The operating rate of most aluminum - processing sectors has declined slightly, and there is an expectation of reduced downstream orders. However, due to the better - than - expected tariff negotiation result, Shanghai aluminum is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,290 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 60 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,489 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 0.39 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 397,275 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 2,025 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.16%. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is still tight, leading to rising nickel ore prices and cost transfer to downstream enterprises. The new Indonesian tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw - material inventory and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel - salt enterprises have a production - reduction expectation, which may lead to a moderate increase in nickel - salt prices. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. In the short term, nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 124,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 2,160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 15,799 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 191.87 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 199,146 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 714 tons [2]. Lead - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,905 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,005 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 4.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 250,675 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 400 tons [2]. Tin - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 264,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 750 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 32,974 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 127.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 2,745 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 30 tons [2].

【华泰证券：看好二季度乘用车板块维持高景气】 2025年一季度以旧换新政策快速衔接，刺激终端需求同比向好，乘用车板块营收/归母净利润分别同比 +8%/+19%。 板块内表现分化：1) 新能源渗透率提升，规模效应增强下自主品牌盈利能力同比改善；2）合资持续承压，以价换量策略收效有限，销 量同比继续下滑；3）受汇兑收益影响，汽车及乘用车财务费用率同比大幅下降。 展望后市，看好二季度各省市促消费政策和自主品牌智能化新车协同发力下，乘用车板块维持高景气，业绩水平 进一步向好。 【华泰证券：看好二季度乘用车板块维持高景气】 2025年一季度以旧换新政策快速衔接，刺激终端需求同比向好，乘用车板块营收/归母净利润分别同比 +8%/+19%。 板块内表现分化：1) 新能源渗透率提升，规模效应增强下自主品牌盈利能力同比改善；2）合资持续承压，以价换量策略收效有限，销 量同比继续下滑；3）受汇兑收益影响，汽车及乘用车财务费用率同比大幅下降。 展望后市，看好二季度各省市促消费 ...