Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a decline on September 26, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 2.5%, while the CSI A500 Index showed a relatively better performance with a weekly increase of 1.19% despite a daily drop of 1.14% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The A500 ETF by Harvest (159351) has maintained a bullish trend for three consecutive weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 21.43%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 14.21% during the same period [1] - The CSI A500 Index, which tracks 500 large-cap and liquid stocks across various industries, has been recognized for reflecting a shift in market sentiment from a low point to a slow bull market [1][2] Group 2: Future Outlook - Several brokerages have released optimistic A-share strategy reports for Q4 2025, suggesting that the upward trend is likely to continue, with the market expected to challenge new levels [1] - The recovery of the RMB exchange rate is anticipated to attract foreign capital inflows, and a resonance of domestic and international policies may create numerous thematic investment opportunities [1] - A more balanced style in A-shares is expected in Q4, indicating a potential diversification in investment strategies [1]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量深度 2025 年 9 月 26 日 策略深度 这是一轮混合牛 本轮牛市仍有望实现慢牛、长牛，结构上类似 2013-2014 年叠加 2016-2017 年，组成先结构牛、后全面牛的混合牛。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 A 股历史牛市回顾。2001 至 2025 年，A 股历史上典型意义上的牛市共计 六轮，前五轮牛市类型各不相同，有全面牛亦有结构牛，驱动逻辑上估 值扩张是共性要素，但盈利驱动方面并不一致，第一轮和第二轮牛市的 宏观背景是经济及全 A 盈利显著提升，而第三轮牛市背后的宏观经济及 A 股盈利则处于承压状态，第四、五轮牛市更多呈现结构性景气。 从资金视角对比前五轮牛市。从增量资金的入市节奏视角，每一轮牛市 都有显著的增量资金，使得牛市的启动可 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant shift in the A-share market, where technology leaders like Ningde Times and Cambricon have surpassed traditional consumer giants like Kweichow Moutai in market capitalization, indicating a new era in the capital market [1][2][4] - Ningde Times' market capitalization reached 1.82 trillion yuan, surpassing Kweichow Moutai for the first time, reflecting the strong performance of technology stocks [2] - The electronic industry has seen a market value increase of 6.96 trillion yuan over the past year, overtaking the banking sector to become the largest in A-shares, with the CSI A500 index rising by 48.2% during this period [4][10] Group 2 - The CSI A500 index, which includes leading companies across various sectors, has gained significant traction, with its ETF, Huatai-PB A500 ETF, achieving a scale of 22.908 billion yuan, marking a 831.3% increase in fund size compared to last year [8][10] - The technology sector now accounts for over 25% of the A-share market capitalization, significantly higher than the combined market cap of banking, non-banking financials, and real estate [10][12] - Major tech companies like Alibaba and JD.com are ramping up their investments in AI, with JD.com planning to invest heavily over the next three years to create a trillion-yuan AI ecosystem [11][12] Group 3 - Alibaba announced plans for a substantial investment in AI infrastructure, aiming for 380 billion yuan in development, and expects a tenfold increase in energy consumption for its global data centers by 2032 [11][12] - The global AI investment has exceeded 400 billion dollars in the past year, with projections of over 4 trillion dollars in cumulative investment over the next five years [11][12] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and UBS have raised expectations for Alibaba's cloud investments, predicting annual increases in data center capacity that could translate to significant capital expenditures [12][13]

Group 1 - A-shares indices collectively rose in the morning session, with over 4000 stocks in the market increasing in value [1] - The semiconductor, photolithography, real estate, cultivated diamonds, gaming, and energy storage sectors showed the highest gains, while tourism and hotels, precious metals, coal mining and processing, banking, and airport shipping sectors lagged behind [1] - By midday, the CSI A500 index increased by 1%, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.7%, the ChiNext index climbed by 1.8%, the STAR Market 50 component index surged by 4.9%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises index went up by 1.1% [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext ETF tracks the ChiNext index, which consists of 100 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity, with a significant proportion in strategic emerging industries, including over 55% in electric equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics [3] - The STAR Market 50 ETF tracks the STAR Market 50 component index, comprising 50 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity, prominently featuring technology leaders, with over 60% in semiconductors and over 75% combined in medical devices, software development, and photovoltaic equipment [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the intense demand for luxury real estate in Shanghai, particularly in the Huangpu District, where 227 wealthy buyers competed for 120 luxury homes, resulting in a total sales amount of 9.843 billion yuan in a single day [1][4] - The most notable property was a 865.49 square meter duplex with a price of 32.68 million yuan per square meter, totaling 283 million yuan, indicating the high value placed on prime locations [4][5] - The article emphasizes the disparity in the Shanghai real estate market, where luxury properties are in high demand while the general market for affordable housing is struggling, with a significant portion of buyers being wealthy individuals from Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces [6][10] Group 2 - Recent policy changes, such as the "Six New Policies" introduced on August 25, have stimulated the luxury housing market by easing restrictions on purchases, financing, and taxes, leading to increased demand [10][11] - The scarcity of land in core areas of Shanghai is driving up property values, as highlighted by the ongoing rise in land prices and the limited availability of new luxury developments [11][13] - The article suggests that luxury real estate is becoming a safe haven for wealth during economic uncertainty, reinforcing the idea that location and quality are critical factors in real estate investment [13][14]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to prevent economic recession and aligns with historical patterns of preemptive rate cuts [1][7][6] - The U.S. job market shows signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August and non-farm payrolls being significantly revised downwards, indicating a potential economic slowdown [7][8][11] - A-share market is expected to maintain a strong slow bull trend in the short term, supported by the Fed's rate cut and domestic growth policies [13][19][20] Group 2 - The technology sector and certain core assets are likely to outperform following the Fed's rate cut, driven by liquidity easing and upward industry trends [19][20][21] - Historical data shows that after 18 rate cuts since 2005, sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and communications have frequently ranked among the top performers [19][22][27] - The easing of liquidity is expected to attract foreign capital into A-shares, with significant inflows observed during previous rate cut cycles [19][20][21]

Group 1 - The report from CITIC Securities highlights three liquidity characteristics observed in domestic and overseas markets [1] - Characteristic one indicates a clear divergence in ETF fund flows, with broad-based ETFs decreasing while industry and thematic ETFs are increasing, reflecting a trend of institutional allocation favoring high-quality stocks [1] - Characteristic two suggests that the market may be entering the final round of intensive subscription and redemption for actively managed public funds since 2021, with core assets held by institutions expected to gradually alleviate redemption pressure [1] - Characteristic three points out the coexistence of high debt funding rates and passive interest rate cuts in overseas markets, indicating a shift in China's manufacturing sector towards gaining pricing power and improving profit margins in the long term [1]

Group 1 - The market opened strongly, with active sectors including precious metals, gaming, batteries, and film exhibition [1] - As of 9:45, the CSI A500 index rose by 0.5%, with stocks like Yiwei Lithium Energy increasing over 14%, and other companies such as Pylon Technologies and Giant Network rising over 8% [1] - The A500 ETF from E Fund saw a net subscription of 30 million units during the session [1] Group 2 - In August, the number of new A-share accounts reached 2.6503 million, a month-on-month increase of 34.97% and a year-on-year increase of 165.21% [1] - The total number of new A-share accounts for the first eight months of the year reached 17.2117 million [1] Group 3 - China Galaxy Securities noted that the current market remains active, supported by continuous capital flow and rising policy expectations [1] - The external environment is relatively stable, with high expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, positively impacting the equity market [1] - The upward trend of A-shares is expected to continue, with market hotspots likely to rotate, highlighting structural allocation opportunities [1] Group 4 - The CSI A500 index consists of 500 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity across various industries, achieving a dual drive of "core assets" and "new productive forces" [1] - The A500 ETF from E Fund offers the lowest management fee rate of 0.15% per year, facilitating low-cost investment in core A-share assets [1]

Market Performance - The A-share market saw all three major indices strengthen, with a total market turnover of 2.78 trillion yuan [1] - The CSI A500 index rose by 0.9%, the CSI 300 index increased by 0.6%, the ChiNext index surged by 2.3%, and the STAR Market 50 index climbed by 1.2% [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also experienced a rise of 2% [1] Sector Performance - The leading sectors in terms of gains included precious metals, non-ferrous metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, CPO, and storage chips [1] - Conversely, sectors that faced declines included insurance, airport and shipping, securities, military equipment, banking, and gaming [1] Index Composition - The ChiNext index consists of 100 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity, with a significant proportion in strategic emerging industries, particularly in electric equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, which together account for over 55% [3] - The STAR Market 50 index is composed of 50 stocks from the STAR Market, showcasing prominent technology leaders, with semiconductors making up over 60% and medical devices, software development, and photovoltaic equipment industries collectively accounting for over 75% [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective rise on September 1, 2025, with a trading volume of approximately 27,499.61 billion yuan, driven by sectors such as gold, CPO, innovative drugs, and storage chips [1] - As of August 29, 2025, the A-share financing balance reached a new high of 22,454.72 billion yuan, just 211.63 billion yuan short of the historical peak, with the Shenzhen market financing balance also hitting a record [1] - Market sentiment has been buoyed by factors such as the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, significant upcoming events, structural prosperity in mid-year reports, and advancements in the domestic AI industry, leading to substantial inflows of incremental capital [1] Group 2 - The A500 index rose by 0.85% as of September 1, 2025, with the leading A500 ETF (563800) increasing by 0.62%, marking three consecutive days of gains [2] - Financial institutions suggest that the A-share market's chip structure has improved following significant fluctuations, with the "anti-involution" policy and demand-side policies being crucial for market performance [2] - Core assets are becoming a focal point for the market, with expectations of a recovery in ROE as net profit margins improve and turnover stabilizes, indicating a potential end to the downward cycle [2] Group 3 - The market is expected to maintain a trend of oscillating upward in September, although at a potentially slower rate compared to August, driven by positive feedback from incremental capital inflows [3] - The external environment appears stable, with high expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets [3]