Economic Performance - Zhangjiagang's GDP for the first three quarters reached 242.4 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, surpassing the national average of 5.2% and ranking fifth in Suzhou [1] - The total GDP ranks third among all county-level cities in Suzhou, indicating strong economic strength and stable development [1] Investment Highlights - Industrial investment in Zhangjiagang amounted to 21.83 billion, with a growth rate of 14.6%, ranking second in Suzhou [1] - Infrastructure investment saw a remarkable growth rate of 48.7%, also placing second in Suzhou [1] Service Sector Growth - The revenue from the scale above designated size in the service industry reached 14.9 billion, growing by 11.6%, ranking fourth in Suzhou [1] Construction Sector - The total output value of the construction industry was 17.851 billion, with a growth rate of 14.2%, ranking second in Suzhou [1] - The sales area of commercial housing increased by 3.3%, leading Suzhou [1] Future Outlook - Zhangjiagang plans to implement more effective measures to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, aiming to achieve the annual economic and social development goals and successfully conclude the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, emphasizing the need to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness and promote an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption [1] Group 1: Economic Governance - The document highlights the importance of strengthening the strategic guiding role of national development planning [1] - It calls for better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to enhance overall economic governance [1] - The need to leverage various policies, including industry, price, employment, consumption, investment, trade, regional, environmental, and regulatory policies, is emphasized to foster a more domestically driven economic model [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Policies - The article advocates for stronger counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies [1] - It stresses the importance of maintaining stable growth, employment, and expectations through consistent macro policy orientation [1] - The need for enhanced evaluation of policy implementation effectiveness and the establishment of a sound expectation management mechanism is also mentioned [1] Group 3: High-Quality Development - The document underscores the importance of optimizing the comprehensive performance assessment for high-quality development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is injecting 900 billion MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) to provide liquidity to banks, which is expected to stabilize financing costs for enterprises and support the A-share market [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The injection of 900 billion MLF is essentially a measure to alleviate liquidity constraints for banks, ensuring they do not tighten credit excessively [3]. - This policy action is aimed at maintaining stable expectations in the market, indicating that there will not be sudden disruptions in funding availability [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Long-term investors should not treat this monetary policy as a short-term trading opportunity but rather as a signal to hold onto fundamentally sound stocks with reasonable valuations [3]. - The focus should be on following policy signals and core logic to maintain stable long-term positions in the market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of achieving the annual economic and social development goals set by the Chinese Communist Party, focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations to maintain the economic foundation and promote recovery momentum [1] Group 1: Economic Stability Measures - The meeting highlighted the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and to be adjusted as necessary, ensuring the implementation of enterprise support policies and special actions to boost consumption [1] - It is crucial to safeguard the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level and to actively and prudently resolve local government debt risks [1] Group 2: Employment and Social Welfare - The meeting stressed the importance of ensuring livelihood security through multiple channels, enhancing job stability for key groups, and increasing efforts to rectify wage arrears [1] - There is a focus on improving basic public services and addressing urgent issues faced by the public, particularly in disaster recovery and ensuring warmth for affected populations during winter [1] Group 3: Safety and Stability - The meeting underscored the necessity of ensuring safety in production and maintaining stability, with a strong emphasis on accountability for safety production and strict enforcement of regulatory systems to prevent major accidents [1] - It also called for comprehensive supervision of food and drug safety, conflict resolution, and the legal crackdown on various crimes, alongside effective public opinion guidance to mitigate ideological risks [1]

Economic Growth Perspective - In Q3, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, while the nominal GDP growth rate was 3.7%[5] - Industrial output growth was 6.2%, while demand growth (including retail, fixed investment, and exports) was 2.98%, resulting in a growth rate difference of 3.2%[5] - Export growth was 7.1%, compared to a combined growth of 1.92% for retail and fixed investment, leading to a difference of 5.18%[5] Consumer Spending Insights - The combined growth rate for travel and policy-driven replacement consumption was 8.6%, while essential consumption categories like food and clothing saw a growth rate of only 0.3%[5] - The consumer spending tendency in Q3 was 68.1%, down from 68.9% in the same period last year, indicating a decline in consumer confidence[48] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was -6.6% in Q3, a significant drop from the previous value of 1.8%[43] - Equipment investment grew by 14%, contrasting with a -4.1% decline in construction investment, highlighting a shift towards new economic sectors[15] Market Expectations and Policy Recommendations - To stabilize market expectations, it is crucial to maintain confidence in long-term economic transformation and short-term price recovery, with a target Q4 growth rate of around 4.5% to meet the annual goal[4] - The need for further reduction in mortgage rates is emphasized, as the cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices was 3.93% while mortgage rates only decreased by 3 basis points[8] Employment and Labor Market - The total number of rural laborers working outside their home areas reached 19.187 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%[52] - The urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, showing a slight decrease from the previous month[56]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of strengthening expectations to enhance economic growth momentum and stabilize investor sentiment amid a diversified economic structure and weak visible demand [2][3][9]. Economic Perspective - Economic growth shows significant differentiation, with actual GDP growth at 4.8% and nominal GDP growth at 3.7% in Q3. Industrial output growth was 6.2%, while demand growth was only 2.98%, resulting in a 3.2% growth differential [5][15]. - External demand is outperforming internal demand, with export growth at 7.1% compared to a combined growth of 1.92% for retail and fixed asset investment, leading to a 5.18% growth gap [5][15]. - Within consumer spending, travel and policy-driven replacement chains are growing at 8.6%, while essential categories like food and clothing are stagnating at 0.3% [5][15]. - Fixed asset investment shows a stark contrast, with construction investment declining by 4.1% while equipment investment surged by 14% [6][15]. Investment Perspective - Visible demand is under pressure, with a -1.4% growth rate in visible demand indicators such as retail sales and real estate sales, while invisible demand grew by 5.7% [7][21]. - The leading indicator for profitability, old M1, faces challenges due to high base effects, complicating recovery expectations [8][21]. Need for Stabilizing Expectations - To enhance economic growth momentum and stabilize investor expectations, policy measures need to be intensified. Recent policy tools and incremental funding deployments have been observed [9][26]. - The core of stabilizing expectations lies in housing prices and stock prices, with long-term confidence in economic transformation and short-term goals requiring a Q4 growth rate of around 4.5% to meet annual targets [3][27]. Detailed Economic Data Analysis - In Q3, GDP growth was 4.8%, down from 5.2%, with nominal GDP growth at 3.7%. The PPI averaged -2.9% and CPI at -0.2% [35][39]. - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 56.6%, while capital formation contributed 18.9% [40]. - Consumer spending growth was 3.4%, lower than income growth of 4.5%, indicating a decline in spending inclination compared to the previous year [41]. - The industrial capacity utilization rate was 74.6%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous year [44]. - The number of migrant workers increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with average monthly income growth at 2.4% [48]. September Economic Data Analysis - In September, industrial output growth was 6.5%, while retail sales growth was 3.0%, indicating a mixed demand environment [52][58]. - Real estate sales area declined by 10.5%, and fixed asset investment growth remained weak at -7.1% [62][67]. - The stock market's low volatility has increased the relative attractiveness of equities compared to bonds, suggesting a need for continued policy measures to stabilize stock prices [10][33].

Core Insights - The decline in various real estate indicators in China, such as new construction area and average price of new residential properties, is slowing down as of the first three quarters of 2025 [1][2] Group 1: New Construction and Completion - The new construction area for residential buildings reached 45,399 million square meters from January to September, representing an 18.9% year-on-year decline, which is a 0.6 percentage point improvement compared to the decline from January to August [1] - The completion area of residential buildings was 31,129 million square meters during the same period, showing a 15.3% year-on-year decline, which is a 1.7 percentage point improvement from the previous months [1] - The stabilization in new construction and completion areas is expected to help stabilize the industry size and support a more stable real estate development investment in the future [1] Group 2: Average Price of New Residential Properties - The average sales price of new residential properties saw a reduced decline, with a year-on-year drop of 1.9% from January to September, down from a 2.3% decline in the previous months [2] - The demand for high-quality properties is expanding, moving from improvement-type projects to essential housing projects, which is contributing to price stability [2] - The expectation of policy implementation in the fourth quarter, including potential interest rate cuts and increased efforts in urban village renovations, is seen as crucial for stabilizing the housing market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic performance in the first three quarters shows stability and progress, with effective high-quality development measures being implemented [1] Economic Indicators - Major macroeconomic indicators remain stable, indicating a steady economic operation with positive developments [1] - The need for further consolidation of the economic recovery foundation is emphasized due to existing risks and challenges [1] Policy Recommendations - The next phase should focus on implementing more proactive macro policies to enhance effectiveness [1] - Key areas of focus include stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations to promote sustainable and healthy economic development [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic policies aim to strengthen the domestic market, with China's August CPI, core CPI, and PPI showing specific trends, and US inflation unexpectedly falling. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports and processing fees are rising, along with increased smelter profits and supply growth. Import losses are widening, reducing imported zinc inflows. On the demand side, downstream is at the end of the off - season, with stable and rising processing enterprise operating rates. Zinc prices are at a low level, downstream purchases on - demand, domestic social inventories are increasing, and overseas LME inventories are decreasing, supporting zinc prices. Technically, with decreasing positions and price fluctuations, it's recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,250 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 5 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,887.5 dollars/ton, up 20.5 dollars. The total Shanghai Zinc open interest is 222,719 lots, up 970 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 6,229 lots, up 3,619 lots. Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 44,925 tons, up 596 tons. The SHFE inventory is 87,032 tons, up 1,052 tons; the LME inventory is 50,825 tons, down 200 tons [3]. Spot Market - The SMM 0 zinc spot price is 22,180 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market 1 zinc spot price is 22,180 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan. The ZN main contract basis is - 70 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is 23.01 dollars/ton, up 5.39 dollars. The Kunming 50% zinc concentrate arrival price is 16,860 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the Shanghai 85% - 86% broken zinc price is 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, down 11,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. Zinc social inventories are 140,100 tons, up 1,800 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - Galvanized sheet production is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; sales are 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters. Automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 13.01%, down 0.03%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 6.16%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 13.02%, down 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 11.12%, down 0.04% [3]. Industry News - China aims to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, implement active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and promote various aspects of development. China's August CPI, core CPI, and PPI show specific trends, and US inflation unexpectedly falls [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report presented by the National Development and Reform Commission indicates that the execution of the national economic and social development plan for this year is generally good, with positive progress in various economic indicators despite external and internal challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance - Economic growth, employment, consumption, foreign trade, and residents' income have shown smooth progress [1]. - The report highlights six key areas of work effectiveness, including proactive macro policies, expansion of domestic demand, optimization of industrial development, deepening reform and opening up, and steady progress in regional coordination and urban-rural integration [1][2]. Group 2: Future Economic Work - The focus for the second half of the year will be on maintaining stability while seeking progress, implementing new development concepts, and enhancing domestic and international economic coordination [2][3]. - Key tasks include promoting domestic demand, advancing technological and industrial innovation, and ensuring the stability of employment, enterprises, and market expectations [2][3]. Group 3: Policy Implementation - The report emphasizes the need for effective implementation of central policies, including proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to maximize policy effects [3]. - It also calls for the release of consumption potential through targeted actions and the removal of restrictive measures, alongside the promotion of high-quality investment projects [3].