分析称，即将公布的通胀和就业报告对于塑造美联储利率路径预期至关重要，这些数据很可能打破近期 的波动区间。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京11月14日电（王姝睿）美元本周表现疲软，市场焦点集中于美联储政策及12月议息会议前 的美国经济数据。美国结束历史性政府停摆，即将发布的数据可能带来上行或下行意外，交易员保持谨 慎，避免在市场波动性全面回归前建立大规模头寸。 经济迷雾难以快速消散 随着美国政府机构恢复运转并开始发布积压的经济数据，市场可能结束近期的平静状态，进入新一轮波 动周期。 美国银行指出，美国政府"开门"后，外汇市场波动性即将回归。ICE美元指数与两年期利差的关系显 示，当前美元对全球利率的敏感度已达到第一季度以来最高水平。这意味着当美国重启经济数据发布 后，由于市场对美联储与主要海外央行利率路径的预期分化，美元很可能出现大幅波动。外汇交易商通 常更青睐利率更高、回报更丰厚的货币。 "随着数据发布恢复正常，美国利率差异波动性将从近期低位回升。"策略师称，"这使得政府停摆结束 后即将公布的美国经济数据更具市场影响力。" 具体时间表尚不明确。参照2013年美国政府停摆经验，非农就业报告在政府重启5天后发布，本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices fell due to demand concerns, with investors awaiting delayed U.S. economic data to assess the health of the global economy [1] Group 1: Copper Market - LME three-month copper dropped by 0.90% to $10,857 per ton, but has risen 1.31% for the week [1] - The Shanghai copper main contract for December closed down by 430 yuan or 0.49% at 86,900 yuan per ton [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's National Bureau of Statistics reported stable economic performance in October, with ongoing transformation and growth of new economic drivers [1] - However, external uncertainties and domestic structural adjustment pressures pose challenges to stable economic operation [1] Group 3: Other Base Metals - Other base metals also experienced declines: - Shanghai aluminum for January fell by 0.68% to 21,840 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai lead for December decreased by 1.05% to 17,495 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai zinc dropped by 1.02% to 22,425 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai nickel fell by 1.48% to 117,080 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai tin decreased by 1.77% to 291,450 yuan per ton [1] - LME three-month aluminum fell by 1.45% to $2,854.50 per ton [2] - LME zinc dropped by 1.42% to $3,011.50 per ton [2] - LME lead decreased by 0.38% to $2,070 per ton [2] - LME nickel fell by 1.01% to $14,830 per ton [2] - LME tin decreased by 1% to $36,860 per ton [2]

近日，GTCFX首席分析师Jameel Ahmad受邀出席土耳其国际新闻频道TRT WORLD节目，围绕"中美贸易休战对全球市场的影响"及"OPEC+产油政策动向"发 表了独到见解，为投资者提供了深度的市场分析与风险提示。 GTCFX首席分析师Jameel做客TRT WORLD 解读中美贸易休战与油市走势 贸易休战提振市场情绪但风险仍存 在谈及中美贸易休战时，Jameel Ahmad表示，当前市场的积极氛围虽受到休战消息的带动，但本质上这更像是一种"阶段性停火"而非真正的协议。他指出， 这一休战为中美关系带来暂时缓和，推动了市场情绪的回升。然而，美联储的政策不确定性与美国经济数据延迟公布，仍可能成为潜在风险因素。 他进一步分析称，近期美国财报季表现强劲，加之美联储此前降息，共同支撑了十月市场的整体上涨。但随着进入十一月，美联储已暗示短期内是否继续降 息尚无定论，加上政府停摆风险迫近，投资者应保持谨慎。与此同时，中国经济增长放缓的迹象同样值得关注，这可能促使部分投资者选择在本月进行获利 了结操作。 通过此次访谈，GTCFX展现了其在国际财经分析领域的专业实力，持续为全球投资者提供具有前瞻性与洞察力的市场观点。 ...

美股三大指数全线低开，热门中概股逆市走强。 当地时间11月13日，美股三大指数集体低开，纳指一度跌超1%。截至发稿，道指跌0.1%，纳指跌0.89%，标普 500指数跌0.49%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业平均 | 48206.77 | -48.05 | -0.10% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 23198.91 | -207.55 | -0.89% | | SPX | 标普500 | 6817.31 | -33.61 | -0.49% | 中概股逆市走强，纳斯达克中国金龙指数低开后拉升翻红，截至发稿涨0.45%。 中概科技龙头股中，比亚迪股份ADR、阿里巴巴均涨超2%，腾讯控股ADR涨超1%。其他热门中概股中，阿特 斯太阳能涨超6%，霸王茶姬涨超4%，虎牙、贝壳等涨超2%，理想汽车、亿鹏能源、唯品会等涨超1%。 美国政府终于"开门" 据央视新闻，签字仪式上，特朗普表示，美国政府"停摆"损失了1.5万亿美元，真正计算出损失的总体影响需 要数周甚至数月的时间。 由于美国国会民主、 ...

来源|国际财闻汇 莱维特说令人担忧的是，没有数据"让美联储的决策者们在关键时候形同盲飞"。接下来美联储官员将于12月9-10日会晤，届时将决定是否进行今年 第三次降息。 【 热门视频推荐 】 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 白宫上月底曾表示，很可能无法发布10月份的通胀数据，并表示这将是"历史上首次"不发布该数据。当时，劳工统计局表示，一旦资金恢复则将重启 正常运作，并会将发布日程上的变化公之于众。 莱维特并未说明她指的是整份就业报告，还是其中的部分内容。该报告由两项调查构成：一项针对企业，用以编制主要的非农就业数据；另一项针对 家庭，用以制作失业率数据。许多企业会保留记录并电子上报数据，不过要在事后通过电话联系劳动者，让他们回忆十月某一周的就业状况，则要困 难得多。 "据我了解，有些调查实际上根本没有完成，所以我们可能永远也无法知道那个月发生了什么，"白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特周二在接受 CNBC采访时表示，"在数据机构恢复运作之前，我们可能还要经历一段阴云笼罩的时期。" 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特周三表示，政府长时间的停摆可能导致不会发布10月失业率和消费者价格指数(CPI)报告。 在美国政府停摆期间 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The end of the US federal government shutdown boosts optimistic sentiment and the copper market. With short - term macro potential negatives temporarily fading, copper prices are expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the release of US economic data and the situation of the December interest - rate cut game [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened high and moved low, showing a strong intraday oscillation. The US government ended the shutdown, and the long - term order negotiation in the supply side has uncertainties. In November, 5 smelters are expected to have maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. The demand peak season is weaker than previous years, and the downstream demand is still weak. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing since the end of October [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, with strong intraday oscillation. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 40 yuan/ton, and in South China is 5 yuan/ton. On November 12, 2025, the LME official price was 10,853 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 20 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of November 10, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 41.9 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.00 US cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 44,000 tons, an increase of 64 tons from the previous period. As of November 10, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 136,300 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 378,300 short tons, an increase of 4,327 short tons from the previous period [11]

格隆汇11月13日｜经济学家预计，美国延迟的经济数据可能会在下周陆续公布，而焦点在于这些数据是 否会支持显示就业市场疲软的民间调查。股票经纪公司Argonaut的机构销售主管Damian Rooney说："现 在的论点之一是，随着美国政府重启，我们应该会得到很多数据，这些数据将为（美联储主席鲍威尔） 提供更清晰的信息，让他说：'我将因此而降息'。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

经济数据将密集发布：政府重启后，此前延迟的大量经济数据（如就业报告）将陆续公布。如果数据持续显示美国经济放缓，可能强化美联储的降息预期， 利好黄金。 美联储政策的不确定性 根据CME"美联储观察"工具，市场目前预测美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为64.1%，较此前90%的预期已大幅降温。 若金价回调至4090-4100美元支撑区域，可以考虑轻仓试多，止损参考4080美元下方，短期目标看向4130-4150-4200美元。 若金价反弹至4140-4160美元的强阻力区并出现受阻迹象（如上涨动能减弱），可以轻仓试空，短期目标看向4110-4098美元/盎司，上破4160美元/盎司则考 虑止损。 以上策略，仅供参考。市场瞬息万变，操作时请务必轻仓并设置好止损。 影响黄金波动的关键因素 美国政策与数据预期 政府"停摆"结束：美国参议院已通过临时拨款法案，政府重启后预计将释放约7000亿美元被冻结的资金。这增加了市场流动性，对金价构成支撑，但其实际 影响节奏尚不确定。 第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 在流动性充裕的背景下，美联储可能放缓降息节奏，转而使用其他工具呵护资金面。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logics include short - term hedging due to geopolitical risks after the Sino - US talks, the weakening US employment and moderate inflation leading to potential Fed rate cuts, the impact of the US government shutdown and consumer confidence on the currency attribute, and the influence of the CRB commodity index and RMB appreciation on the commodity attribute [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex gold closed at $4007.80 per ounce, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.14% from last week; London gold closed at $3994.10 per ounce, up 0.19% from the previous day and down 0.43% from last week; Shanghai gold futures closed at 935.98 yuan per gram, up 1.60% from the previous day and 1.45% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 933.02 yuan per gram, up 1.68% from the previous day and 1.39% from last week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions were 528,789 lots, unchanged from last week; Shanghai gold futures positions decreased by 9.72% from last week; Gold T + D positions decreased by 2.23% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from last week; Shanghai gold futures inventory increased by 1.32% from last week [2]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex silver closed at $48.23 per ounce, up 0.79% from the previous day and down 0.05% from last week; London silver closed at $48.70 per ounce, up 0.02% from the previous day and down 0.54% from last week; Shanghai silver futures closed at 11,719 yuan per kilogram, up 2.05% from the previous day and 2.30% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 11,726 yuan per kilogram, up 2.14% from the previous day and 2.48% from last week [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions were 165,805 lots, unchanged from last week; Shanghai silver futures positions decreased by 2.91% from last week; Silver T + D positions decreased by 2.65% from last week. LBMA silver inventory increased by 6.53% from last week; Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.48% from last week; Shanghai silver futures inventory decreased by 7.42% from last week [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve and Monetary Indicators**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25; the Fed's total assets are $6623.643 billion, down 0.00% from last week; M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.01 [8]. - **US Economic Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.40%, down 1.23% from the previous day and up 1.69% from last week; the US dollar index is 99.55, down 0.16% from the previous day and 0.18% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.37, up 2.78% from the previous day and 16.13% from last week [8]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI year - on - year and month - on - month are 3.00% and 0.30% respectively, with no change; core CPI year - on - year and month - on - month are 3.00% and 0.30% respectively, with no change; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.74%, up 0.14; core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.91%, up 0.05 [10]. - **Economic Growth and Other Indicators**: GDP annualized year - on - year is 2.00%, down 0.30; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter is 3.80%, up 4.40; the unemployment rate is 4.30%, up 0.10; non - farm payrolls monthly change is 2.20 million, down 0.57 million [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed resilience despite external shocks. The stock index futures market is expected to remain in a high - level shock in the short term, while the bond market has limited upward space. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of different varieties vary. For example, the price of soybean meal is affected by trade relations and supply - demand, and the international sugar price is in a downward trend. - The black metal market is in a state of shock. Steel prices are in a range - bound state, and the double - coke market is expected to be strong after a callback. - The non - ferrous metal market has different trends for each variety. Precious metals are in a range - bound arrangement, and the prices of some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost. - The energy and chemical market also shows different trends. For example, the price of crude oil has support, while the price of asphalt is under pressure. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market was affected by the overnight decline of US stocks but quickly rebounded. The short - term market will maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to buy at low levels near 3930 points of the Shanghai Composite Index and reduce positions at high levels above 4000 points. Also, consider IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage and bull spread options at low levels [18][19]. - **Treasury Futures**: The treasury futures closed mostly lower on Wednesday. It is recommended to take appropriate profit - taking. In the future, short - term long positions can be tried on the TL contract, and pay attention to short - term spread and term spread arbitrage opportunities [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Trade relations are beneficial to US soybeans, but the international soybean supply is abundant. The price of domestic soybean meal is supported in the near - term but under pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to short the far - month contracts [25][26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is in a downward trend due to increased production in major producing areas. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a range - bound state. It is recommended to operate in the range and short the international sugar while going long on Zhengzhou sugar [29][30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to gradually decrease after accumulating in October, and the domestic palm oil inventory is increasing. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then consider going long at low levels [33][34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn is expected to be in a narrow - range shock. The domestic corn price has a short - term decline space. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month US corn on dips, wait and see for the 01 - month contract, and wait for a callback for the 05 and 07 - month contracts [37][38]. - **Pigs**: The pressure of pig slaughter continues, and the price remains low. It is recommended to short a small amount [39][40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is rebounding, and the 01 - month contract is in a short - term bottom shock. It is recommended to go long lightly on the 01 and 05 - month contracts [42][43][44]. - **Eggs**: The number of culled chickens has increased, and the egg price has stabilized. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Apples**: The market is expected to fluctuate greatly with the release of warehousing data. It is recommended to wait and see [50][51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton harvest is at its peak. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in a shock. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The iron - making output is shrinking, and the steel price is in a range - bound state. It is recommended to go long on dips and continue to hold the long position of the coil - screw spread [60][61]. - **Double - Coke**: The market is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [62][63][64]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to take a bearish view. The price is expected to be in a high - level bearish operation [65][66]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is at a low level, and previous short positions can be reduced. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [68]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Multiple factors are intertwined, and the precious metals market is in a range - bound arrangement. It is recommended to operate in a band [71][72][74]. - **Copper**: The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see and continue to hold the inter - market cash - and - carry arbitrage [75][76][77]. - **Alumina**: The supply - side production reduction has not been implemented, and the price is in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to wait and see [78][80][81]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The demand is resilient, and the price is expected to rise on dips. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum arbitrage [82][84][85]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The seasonal peak season is coming, and the price is expected to rise on dips. It is recommended to go long on dips [86][87][89]. - **Zinc**: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and previous long positions can take partial profit [90][91][92]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to hold short positions. The price may have a downward space. Be vigilant about the impact of funds on the price [94][95]. - **Nickel**: The supply - demand is loose, the cost support is weakening, and the price is expected to decline in a shock [96].