美国经济数据

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金晟富:7.19黄金盘整或迎来尾声!下周聚焦关税与美联储风波
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-19 04:54
Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the weakening US dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and mixed economic signals from the US, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors Impacting Gold Prices - Gold prices have recently increased by 0.4% to $3353.25 per ounce due to a softening dollar and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1]. - Positive US real estate data, including building permits and new housing starts, has reduced recession fears, providing some support for the dollar and exerting pressure on gold [2]. - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve officials' views on monetary policy have created market volatility, with some advocating for immediate rate cuts while others suggest maintaining high rates [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Market Sentiment - The US June CPI data indicates signs of rising inflation, which may delay the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, impacting gold's attractiveness [3]. - The interplay of Federal Reserve policies, US economic data, and tariff uncertainties is creating a complex environment for gold prices, with potential inflation pressures enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies - Technical analysis shows gold is currently in a consolidation phase, with key resistance levels around $3375 and support levels at $3340-$3345 [4][6]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on boundary breakouts, with potential upward movement towards $3380 if support levels hold [4][6]. - Specific trading strategies include selling on rebounds near $3373-$3375 and buying on dips around $3340-$3345, with defined stop-loss levels to manage risk [7][8].
张尧浠:多空因素继续博弈、金价维持震荡待涨前景预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-18 00:43
Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a volatile trend with a higher probability of upward movement in the future, despite short-term pressures [1][3]. Market Performance - On July 17, gold opened at $3347.73 per ounce, reached a high of $3352.00, then fell to a low of $3309.90 before closing at $3338.73, with a daily fluctuation of $42.1 and a decrease of $9, or 0.27% [1][3]. - The dollar index experienced a pullback, which contributed to the recovery of gold prices [3]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes the annualized number of new housing starts in June (in thousands), the number of building permits in June (in thousands), the preliminary one-year inflation rate for July, and the preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for July [5]. - The overall market expectation is leaning towards a bearish outlook for gold prices based on these indicators [5]. Market Sentiment - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices, there is still optimism regarding the long-term outlook for gold, supported by buying interest at lower price levels [5]. - The market is currently influenced by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve monetary policy, tariff policies, and U.S. economic data [5]. Future Projections - The expectation is that if interest rates are not cut in September, gold prices may experience a significant correction, potentially reaching the $3000 mark. Conversely, if rates are cut, gold could rise to $3500 or higher [3][5]. - The analysis suggests that after a period of adjustment in the second half of the year, gold prices may enter a bullish phase in the first half of next year [5]. Technical Analysis - Weekly charts indicate that gold prices have not firmly broken below the 10-week moving average support, suggesting potential for upward movement towards $3400 or $3500 [7]. - Daily charts show that gold prices are still within a triangular consolidation pattern, with an upward breakout expected despite potential short-term pullbacks [9]. Trading Strategy - Initial trading points suggest monitoring support levels at $3330 or $3320 and resistance levels at $3345 or $3360 for gold [10].
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250715
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 02:35
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the later focus is on macro policies and downstream demand [4] - The aluminum price is expected to run within a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1.成材 - The production suspension of short - process steel mills in Yunnan and Guizhou regions during the Spring Festival is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons, and the daily output affected by the suspension of some Anhui steel mills is about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% week - on - week and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, with the price hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is not strong [4] 2. Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price ran strongly within the range. The market is concerned about trade negotiation progress and US economic data. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia, and the market is waiting for US consumer and producer price index data [3] - As of last Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's built - in total production capacity was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating total production capacity was 88.57 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92%. Some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi carried out maintenance [4] - Guinea requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by ships flying the Guinean flag in the future. As of now in 2025, Guinea's bauxite exports have increased by 37% year - on - year [4] - As of the end of June, the inventory of alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons. Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% last week [4] - On July 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 501,000 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons compared with last Thursday and 23,000 tons compared with last Monday [4]
海外周报第98期:特朗普驱逐移民的进度如何?-20250714
Huachuang Securities· 2025-07-14 04:15
宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 特朗普驱逐移民的进度如何? ——海外周报第 98 期 主要观点 关税、减税以及移民政策可称为特朗普 2.0 任期的"三板斧",市场对关税和 减税政策更为熟悉,但对移民政策了解相对较小。本篇周报简要梳理今年以来 特朗普政府驱逐移民的进度以及美国社会对移民态度的变化。 ❖ 美国有多少非法移民? 从两个角度估算,截至 2024 年底,美国非法移民人数约为 1280-1520 万人, 假设非法移民的劳动参与率与所有移民群体一致(2025 年上半年为 66.3%), 则非法移民贡献了约 850-1000 万的劳动力。 ❖ 今年以来驱逐了多少非法移民? 特朗普承诺要实施美国史上最大规模的非法移民驱逐行动,但并未设定具体 目标。并且美国移民和海关执法局(ICE)驱逐出境的人数也不会定期公开发 布。但综合现有信息来看,今年以来美国移民驱逐人数相比存量规模很少。 第一,今年 2 月至 6 月,驱逐人数不到 10 万,不到存量非法移民的 0.7-0.8%。 根据 NBC 新闻获取的 ICE 内部数据,今年 2-6 月份,月度驱逐出境人数在 1- 2 万左右,2、3、5 月的驱逐 ...
最新纪要27次提及经济“不确定性” 美联储官员对降息仍持审慎立场
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-11 03:01
据新华财经消息,7月10日凌晨,美联储公布了6月份货币政策会议纪要(以下简称"纪要")。纪要显示, 美联储官员对利率前景的分歧主要来源于对美国关税政策影响通胀的预期不同。 广开首席产业研究院副院长刘涛对《证券日报》记者表示,2024年9月份至12月份,美联储曾连续3次降 息,累计降幅达100个基点。然而,自今年初以来,美联储在长达半年的时间内一直"按兵不动",这折 射出美联储在降息问题上正面临"两难"处境。一方面,为前瞻性地预防美国经济出现衰退,联邦基金利 率有必要向中性利率水平靠拢;另一方面,面对美国关税等贸易保护措施,美联储又不得不高度警惕通 胀反弹的风险。 明明表示,决定未来美联储是否会转向"鸽派"更为关键的因素仍是美国经济数据变动,当美国经济明显 收缩、通胀问题可控时,存在美联储从"鹰派"向"鸽派"转向、美联储"鸽派"底色更深的可能性。 他进一步分析,当前虽然美国部分就业数据显示其就业市场存在一定走弱迹象,但整体就业市场仍存在 韧性。美国就业数据给予了美联储观察经济状况的窗口,7月份美联储降息概率较低。 "根据近期美联储官员的表态,当前美联储12名票委的货币政策立场分歧较大。"中信证券首席经济学家 明 ...
摩根大通CEO戴蒙:美国经济的真实数据完全无法解读。
news flash· 2025-07-10 15:12
Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that the real data of the U.S. economy is completely indecipherable [1] Group 1 - Dimon emphasized the challenges in interpreting current economic indicators, suggesting a disconnect between data and actual economic conditions [1] - The CEO pointed out that various economic metrics are sending mixed signals, complicating the understanding of the economic landscape [1] - Dimon expressed concerns about the potential implications of these unclear economic signals for future growth and investment strategies [1]
金市持续高位震荡 黄金还能火多久?
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-08 12:36
Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing high volatility and mixed opinions regarding its future trajectory, particularly for the second half of 2025, influenced by geopolitical factors, central bank policies, and economic data [1][5][7]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Gold prices have shown a significant upward trend earlier this year but have entered a phase of fluctuation since mid-June, with current prices around $3,330 per ounce [1][3]. - As of July 8, 2023, COMEX gold futures were reported at $3,343 per ounce, while London spot gold was at $3,333 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Short-term factors supporting gold prices include expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases [3][5]. - Conversely, potential downward pressures include technical resistance, increased speculative trading, and weak physical demand [3][7]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - A recent survey indicated that nearly 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next year, with 95% expecting continued gold accumulation [5][6]. - China's gold reserves increased to approximately 2,298.55 tons as of June, marking the eighth consecutive month of accumulation [6]. Group 4: Economic Data and Predictions - U.S. economic data and market expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts are critical in determining gold price movements [7]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup express concerns that the anticipated rate cuts may lead to a decrease in gold prices, with Citigroup predicting a drop to between $2,500 and $2,700 per ounce by Q2 2026 [7][8]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, there is a long-term optimistic view on gold's value as a hedge against currency devaluation and inflation, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and a low-interest-rate environment [8].
山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250707
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 14:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict eases, but risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations remain; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, and strong employment suppresses the expectation of interest rate cuts. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump's signature tax - cut bill has passed, and countries face pressure to reach trade agreements with the US. - In terms of the monetary attribute, overall US employment growth is stronger than expected, eliminating the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The market now expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.64%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.50%. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3336/oz, up 1.52% from last week; London gold at $3331.9/oz, up 1.84%. Shanghai gold main contract closed at 771.3 yuan/g, down 0.74% from the previous day but up 0.48% from last week. [2] - **Positions**: Comex gold positions decreased by 1.42% from last week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 12.80%, and gold TD positions increased by 2.22%. [2] - **Inventory**: LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1.32%. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. [5] - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF reduced their positions again, and the visible silver inventory increased slightly recently. [5] - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit. [6] - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: Comex silver main contract closed at $37.04/oz, up 2.42% from last week; London silver at $36.89/oz, up 2.52%. Shanghai silver main contract closed at 8944 yuan/kg, up 2.25% from the previous day and 1.68% from last week. [6] - **Positions**: Comex silver positions remained unchanged; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 16.45% from the previous day but decreased by 12.60% from last week, and silver TD positions increased by 3.27%. [6] - **Inventory**: The total visible silver inventory increased by 0.12% from last week. [6] Key Fundamental Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous period. The Fed's total assets decreased by $30.94 billion, a decrease of 0.00%. [8] - **Economic Data**: US GDP annualized year - on - year growth was 1.9%, a decrease of 1.00 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points; non - farm employment increased by 147,000. [11] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year was 4.50%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; core PCE price index year - on - year was 2.68%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points. [8][11] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged; the VIX index decreased by 0.18% from the previous day; the CRB commodity index increased by 1.57% from the previous day. [12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's future interest rate adjustments. [13]
美股深夜大涨!一中概股盘中暴涨超170%,多次熔断,油价短线跳水
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 23:52
Market Performance - The US stock market experienced a strong performance, with all three major indices closing higher on July 3, 2023. The Nasdaq rose by 1.02%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, and the Dow Jones gained 0.77% [1] - The S&P 500 index reached its seventh historical closing high of the year, while the Nasdaq achieved its fourth historical closing high of the year [1] Technology Sector - Major US technology stocks saw a collective increase, with Nvidia rising over 1.3% to reach a historical high, peaking at a market capitalization of $3.92 trillion during intraday trading [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stock Brain Rejuvenation Technology experienced a significant surge, with intraday gains exceeding 170%, leading to multiple trading halts. The stock has increased by 21,300% year-to-date, making it one of the best-performing stocks in the US market for 2025 [3] Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data has alleviated concerns regarding a downturn in the US economy. In June, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, significantly surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [6] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for June reported a value of 50.8, above the expected 50.5, indicating continued growth in the services sector. The new orders index also exceeded expectations, coming in at 51.3 [7] - Industrial orders in May saw a month-on-month increase of 8.2%, marking the largest growth since 2014, while factory orders excluding defense rose by 7.5% [7] Bond Market - The strong employment report has led to an increase in US Treasury yields, with the market now anticipating a 93% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in its upcoming meeting [7][8] Oil Market - International oil prices experienced a sharp decline on the evening of July 3, with both WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping over 1% at one point before recovering slightly [11] - The US Treasury Department announced sanctions against multiple entities involved in facilitating Iranian oil trade, which may impact oil market dynamics [13]
深夜!暴涨、熔断,发生了什么?
券商中国· 2025-07-03 15:30
美股"妖股"狂飙。 受一系列超预期的宏观数据推动,美股三大指数全线走强,纳指、标普500指数盘中均创出历史新高,道指逼 近历史新高。其中,脑再生科技再度爆发,盘中一度暴涨超170%,多次触及熔断。 有分析称,最新发布的一系列宏观数据缓解了市场对美国经济增速放缓的担忧。其中,美国6月非农就业数据 预示着美国劳动力市场仍具备较强的韧性。另外,美国6月ISM非制造业指数报50.8,略高于预期。 与此同时,美国与欧盟的关税谈判也传来最新消息。美国财长贝森特称,今天与欧盟谈判代表会面。欧盟委员 会主席冯德莱恩则表示,欧盟希望在下周的最后期限前与美国达成一项原则性的贸易协议。 受独立日休假影响,今夜美股将提前3小时于北京时间周五凌晨1点休市(盘后交易时段为1点至5点),周五全 天休市。 全线大涨 北京时间7月3日晚间,美股三大指数集体高开高走,截至23:00,纳指涨0.97%,标普500指数涨0.81%,均创出 历史新高;道指涨0.83%,逼近历史新高。 美股大型科技股亦全线上涨,英伟达一度涨超2%,盘中总市值最高达到3.92万亿美元;微软、亚马逊、博 通、台积电ADR均涨超1%。 值得一提的是,在美上市的中概股公司—— ...