Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a predicted upward trend [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a predicted upward trend [1] Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metals showed a strong sideways movement. Geopolitical negotiations between the US and Russia stalled, and the possibility of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiation remains uncertain. Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting led to a drop in the US dollar and a short-term jump in precious metals. A rate cut in September is almost certain, and the degree and persistence of the rate cut will be debated later. If the US economic data weakens significantly, the upside potential for gold may open up; if the economy has a relatively soft landing, be cautious at high levels. Short-term international gold and silver are in a sideways range with key resistance above. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. - This week, focus on the US PCE data [1]. Summaries by Related Topics Fed's Stance - Harker believes the Fed should be cautious about rate cuts; a significant weakening of the job market may prompt a rate cut, and the Fed is still far from its inflation target [2]. - Collins thinks the risks of the dual mandate are roughly balanced. Employment growth has slowed, and there is a reason to wait [2]. - Musalem says the risks in the job market are rising but not yet apparent. If the risks intensify, the policy rate may need adjustment [2]. - Trump believes Powell should have cut rates a year ago, and it's too late to signal a rate cut now. He also threatens to fire Fed Governor Cook [2]. Russia-Ukraine Situation - Trump sets a "two - week" timeline, which may increase the intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2]. - The US Vice President says new sanctions on Russia are "not impossible" [2]. - Zelensky is ready to take measures for peace and is cautious about Russia's signals [2].

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Core Viewpoint - The recent outlook for Bitcoin largely depends on upcoming U.S. economic data, including preliminary GDP and core personal consumption expenditures inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - If the data continues to show a slowdown in the U.S. economy and easing inflation, the Federal Reserve will have more justification to initiate a rate-cutting cycle [1] - A liquidity-rich environment created by potential rate cuts would be favorable for Bitcoin's recovery [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Conversely, if the economic data surprises positively, investors may adopt a defensive stance, prolonging short-term corrections [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent outlook for Bitcoin will largely depend on upcoming U.S. economic data, including preliminary GDP figures and core personal consumption expenditure inflation data [1] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - If the economic data continues to show a slowdown in the U.S. economy and easing inflation, the Federal Reserve will have more justification to initiate a rate-cutting cycle [1] - Such a scenario would create a liquidity-rich environment favorable for Bitcoin's recovery [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Conversely, if the data unexpectedly shows strong performance, investors may adopt a defensive stance, prolonging short-term corrections [1] - Bitcoin recently increased by 0.2%, reaching a price of $112,981 [1]

Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with notable variations among different brands. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold price decreased by 1 yuan per gram to 1006 yuan per gram, while Shanghai China Gold saw a significant drop of 11 yuan per gram to 969 yuan per gram, marking it as the lowest-priced store [1][3]. - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices among various stores has widened to 37 yuan per gram [1]. - The latest prices for major brands are as follows: Lao Miao Gold at 1002 yuan per gram, Liufuk Gold at 1006 yuan per gram, and Zhou Dafu Gold at 1006 yuan per gram, all showing no change [1][3]. Group 2: Platinum Market - Platinum prices are on the rise, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry price increasing by 5 yuan per gram to 548 yuan per gram [4]. - The gold recovery price has slightly decreased by 1 yuan per gram, with significant price differences among brands [4]. Group 3: International Gold Market - The spot gold price opened lower, reaching a low of 3325.08 USD per ounce before closing at 3338.33 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.29% [6]. - The drop in gold prices is attributed to the release of the U.S. August PMI data, which reached an 8-month high, dampening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and leading to a rise in the dollar index [6]. - Despite the decline, the increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S. suggests a slowdown in the labor market, which may limit further declines in gold prices [6]. - Analysts suggest that if Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicates potential rate cuts in the coming months, it could lead to downward pressure on the dollar and support for gold prices [6].

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's policy shows increasing division among officials, with some advocating for only one rate cut this year while others see no urgent need for cuts due to inflation concerns [2][3] - Market expectations for a September rate cut have decreased from 92% to 74%, with the anticipated total rate cut by year-end reduced from 54 basis points to 49 basis points, primarily due to recent inflation data and cautious statements from officials [3] - Recent U.S. economic data presents a mixed picture, with rising unemployment claims and weak manufacturing activity suggesting labor market risks, which may boost gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][5] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to support gold prices, as there are no signs of a quick resolution [7] - The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Iran, affecting multiple entities and vessels, which adds to the geopolitical uncertainty [8] - The limited scope of tariff reductions in the U.S.-EU trade agreement may drive more funds into gold due to global uncertainties [9] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase following a peak of 3500 in April, with a clear triangular convergence pattern forming, indicating potential volatility ahead [11] - Key support and resistance levels for gold are identified, with support at approximately 3315 and resistance at around 3384 [11] - In the four-hour timeframe, the market remains in a downward trend until the previous high of 3409 is breached, with critical levels to watch being 3311 for support and 3352 for resistance [13]

Group 1 - The price of gold T+D is currently at 772.39 CNY per gram, down by 0.78 CNY or 0.10% from the previous day, with a trading range of 770.8 to 774.2 CNY per gram [1] - Economic indicators such as GDP growth and retail sales data significantly influence gold prices, with strong economic growth potentially reducing gold demand, while weak data may increase its safe-haven appeal [2] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin a rate cut cycle in 2025, with focus on the timing and magnitude of these cuts, which typically supports gold prices by reducing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [2] Group 2 - Geopolitical uncertainties, including the situation in the Middle East, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and tensions on the Korean Peninsula, could lead to fluctuations in market risk sentiment, impacting gold demand [3] - Recent positive signals from the U.S.-Russia summit regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict have somewhat supported global risk sentiment, which may suppress gold's safe-haven demand [3] - Technical analysis indicates that the key resistance level for gold T+D is between 784-800 CNY per gram, while support is found between 770-815 CNY per gram, with a critical decision point at the current price level [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.77%, closing at 14,125 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The international crude oil price fell weakly, which was positive for polyester, a substitute for US cotton, and negative for US cotton. The US cotton fell 0.16% overnight, closing at 67.48 cents/pound ICE. The subsequent marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy trends should be monitored. Domestically, the recent destocking of cotton continued to decline, and the market was still mainly for replenishment based on rigid demand. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a volatile trend [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.77%, closing at 14,125 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The international crude oil price fell weakly, which was positive for polyester, a substitute for US cotton, and negative for US cotton. The US cotton fell 0.16% overnight, closing at 67.48 cents/pound ICE [1][2]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 18, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,011 (-67) sheets, including 7,762 (-67) registered warehouse receipts and 249 (+0) valid forecasts [3][4]. - Brazil's 2024/25 cotton exports totaled 2.83 million tons, a 5.8% increase from 2023/24, the highest export volume in the same period in history. In July 2025, Brazil exported 127,000 tons of cotton, a 24% decrease compared to July 2024 [4]. - As of August 15, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.8561 million tons, a decrease of 150,600 tons or 7.50% from the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period. Xinjiang's commercial cotton was 1.1319 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons or 11.70% from the previous week. The commercial cotton in the inland area was 418,900 tons, an increase of 14,900 tons or 3.69% from the previous week [4]. - As of August 14, based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.676 million tons, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year-on-year and 583,000 tons higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sold seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year-on-year and 583,000 tons higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative processed lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year-on-year and 583,000 tons higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sold lint cotton was 6.536 million tons, an increase of 1.097 million tons year-on-year and 1.041 million tons higher than the average of the past four years [5]. - In July 2025, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 150,000 tons or 73.2% year-on-year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 520,000 tons, a decrease of 1.49 million tons or 74.2% year-on-year. In July 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.4% year-on-year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons or 14% year-on-year [5]. 3. Data Charts - The report provides charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, cotton yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [6][8][11][13] 4. Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, after the "Trump - Putin meeting", there was no substantial progress in the cease - fire of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US and Russia may need to conduct multiple consultations. The US economic data was mixed, and the consumer confidence index may have been affected by the lack of substantial progress in various negotiations. Brazil's cotton production is expected to reach a new high, and Brazilian cotton has shown strong development momentum in recent years [14]. - Domestically, the recent destocking of cotton continued to decline, and the market was still mainly for replenishment based on rigid demand. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a volatile trend [14]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a holding of 964.22 tons of gold as of August 13, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The gold price experienced fluctuations, reaching a high of $3,370.78 per ounce and closing at $3,356.02 per ounce, an increase of $7.95 or 0.24% [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of August 13, the total holdings of SPDR Gold Trust are 964.22 tons [5]. - The gold ETF holdings remained stable compared to the previous trading day [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Influences - On August 13, spot gold prices fluctuated, with a peak of $3,370.78 per ounce [5]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed optimism about the Federal Reserve potentially starting to cut interest rates sooner than expected, with a significant chance of a 50 basis point cut in September [5]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has led to a rebound in gold prices, although rising risk sentiment has also supported a rise in U.S. stock prices, limiting further increases in gold prices [5]. Group 3: Economic Data and Future Outlook - The market is awaiting upcoming inflation and employment data, which could influence the likelihood of a rate cut in September [5]. - Analysts suggest that if the economic data does not meet expectations, it may weaken the rationale for a rate cut [5]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show that momentum remains below the 100-period line, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 50, indicating a cautious bullish sentiment [6]. - If gold prices fall below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (currently at $3,346), a new downward trend could emerge, potentially targeting the $3,300 level [6]. - Conversely, if gold prices regain upward momentum, the first resistance level is around $3,370, and a confirmed breakout could challenge the $3,400 mark [7].

Group 1 - European companies reported strong earnings, boosting market confidence and leading to a collective rise in European stocks [1][2] - ABN Amro announced a new stock buyback plan after exceeding profit expectations, while Siemens Energy expects to reach the upper limit of its annual performance [2] - Fresenius SE raised its full-year sales forecast, and Bayer's sales exceeded analyst expectations [2] Group 2 - Despite some positive reports, Novo Nordisk's revenue growth fell short of expectations, although its weight-loss drug Wegovy performed better than anticipated [2] - Commodity giant Glencore's earnings did not meet expectations, and it canceled plans to move its primary listing from London to New York [2] - European stock indices showed positive movement, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index opening up by 0.5% and the DAX index also rising by 0.5% [1]