黄金市场投机情绪分析第二十四章 美联储降息后，向市场传递的主要信息有哪些 忙到现在才想起来今天对于美联储利率决议还没有文字分析，那就只好现在去补上了。凌晨两点市场公 布了美联储的利率决议，降息了25个基点。利率水平从4.5%-4.75%的区间下调到了4.25%-4.5%这个区 间。当然市场已经预期本次降息25个基点，在此之前我也跟大家明确的说了 2025.9.18星期四 中雨 撰稿人/金市大鲤 ...

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The decision reflects concerns about the risks in the U.S. labor market and the challenges posed by rising inflation [3] - Recent indicators show a slowdown in economic activity growth during the first half of the year, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [3] Economic Projections - The median projections from the dot plot indicate that FOMC officials expect two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2025 [4][7] - Economic growth expectations have been slightly raised, with GDP growth projected at 1.6% for 2025 and 1.8% for 2026, compared to previous estimates [9] - Inflation expectations have been adjusted upward, with the PCE inflation forecast for 2026 raised to 2.6% [9][10]

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which is expected to be highly divided among members, with a general market expectation of a 25 basis point cut [3] - There are four factions within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate decision: a significant rate cut faction, a moderate cut faction, a no change faction, and a rate hike faction [3] - A "mysterious trader" is betting on a potential 50 basis point cut, indicating a more dovish outlook than the current market expectations [4] Group 2 - The CME's federal funds futures market has seen unprecedented trading activity, suggesting that traders are preparing for a possible dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve [4] - If the Federal Reserve implements two 50 basis point cuts or three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in the last three meetings of the year, it could lead to significant profits for those holding certain contracts [4] - The current pricing in the swap market indicates an expected cumulative rate cut of about 70 basis points before the December meeting [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The price of spot gold has recently experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a historical peak of $3702.93 per ounce before settling at $3689.60, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and geopolitical risks [1][2] - The weakening of the US dollar, which fell by 0.74% to a low of 96.54, has provided additional support for gold prices, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies [2][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is approaching the $3700 mark, with support levels identified at $3660-3653 and potential upward targets around $3710 and $3750 [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures have seen a slight decline to $68.46 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures also dropped to $64.51 per barrel, amid concerns over potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions [5][6] - The market is anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate cut of 25 basis points, which is expected to stimulate economic activity and fuel demand [5] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are currently in a weak consolidation phase, with short-term upward trends expected, particularly if prices break above resistance levels of $66.0-67.0 [6]

今日操作建议与关键点位 在当前高位震荡格局下，操作上需要更加谨慎。日内关键阻力位在3702-3705美元区域，如果突破则可能进一步上攻3715-3725美元阻力区。下方支撑首先关 注3680美元，其次是3670-3674美元区域。操作上建议采用回落做多为主思路，可在3680-3690美元区域轻仓做多，止损设在3670下方，目标看向3700-3710美 元。对于激进型交易者，如果金价反弹至3705-3715美元区域且出现受阻信号，可以轻仓尝试短空，止损设在3720上方，目标回看3680-3690美元。需要注意 的是，在美联储决议前，市场波动可能加剧，务必控制仓位大小，严格设置止损，避免意外波动造成重大损失。 明日走势预测与后市展望 明日黄金走势几乎完全取决于美联储利率决议的结果。如果美联储如预期降息25个基点并释放鸽派信号，金价很可能突破3725美元阻力，向3740-3750美元 区域发起冲击。如果意外降息50个基点，金价可能出现爆炸性上涨，直接挑战3750-3800美元区域。然而需要警惕"买预期卖事实"的风险，如果降息落地但 政策指引不及市场预期的鸽派，或者点阵图显示未来降息路径更为平缓，金价可能出现短线获利 ...

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing unprecedented excitement, with spot gold prices surpassing $3,700 per ounce for the first time, reaching a peak of $3,702.93 before closing at $3,689.60, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a significant drop in the dollar index [2] - The market is reacting to multiple factors including geopolitical risks, a surge in central bank gold purchases, and a weakening dollar, which collectively contributed to the rise in gold prices [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to have a significant impact on gold prices, with a consensus that a 25 basis point cut is likely, but the market may react negatively post-announcement due to already priced-in expectations [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend in the gold market, with daily indicators showing a consolidation phase, while MACD suggests a continued upward momentum [3] - Short-term support levels for gold are identified at $3,680-$3,685, with potential upward targets around $3,710 and even $3,750, maintaining a bullish outlook for the year [3] - In the domestic market, it is advised to exit long positions in Shanghai gold and accumulation gold at specified levels, suggesting a cautious approach and recommending to avoid holding positions until after the Federal Reserve's decision [3]

美股周二收盘，三大股指在美联储利率决议前夕走势平缓，道指收跌0.27%，标普500指数跌0.13%，纳 指跌0.07%。甲骨文高开低走，收涨1.4%，特斯拉(TSLA.O)涨2.8%，英伟达(NVDA.O)跌1.6%。纳斯达 克中国金龙指数收涨1.7%，阿里巴巴(BABA.N)涨2.6%，蔚来汽车(NIO.N)涨8%。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has reached a basic framework consensus with the U.S. to address the TikTok issue, reduce investment barriers, and promote economic and trade cooperation [1] - A U.S. appeals court has denied President Trump's request to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking the first time a president has attempted such an action since the Fed's establishment in 1913 [2] - The New York Fed's manufacturing index for September recorded -8.7, indicating a contraction in industry activity, which is significantly below expectations [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut in its upcoming meeting, with market focus on future interest rate paths and economic expectations [2] - Gold prices have surged, reaching a historical high of $3,674 per ounce, driven by poor manufacturing data and increased rate cut expectations [4][6] - The domestic gold futures in China have also hit a record high, with the main contract peaking above 8,420 yuan per kilogram [2]

特朗普再度敦促美上诉法院批准解雇美联储理事库克。 库克（资料图） 美国总统特朗普14日向美国上诉法院提出最后请求，要求允许其解雇美联储理事库克，理由是她涉嫌房 贷欺诈。特朗普希望在美联储利率决议前完成此举，并再次强调库克至今未能对相关指控作出有力反 驳。 本月9日，美国地方法院曾裁定暂缓特朗普对库克的解职决定，直至其起诉案审理完毕。特朗普团队随 后要求华盛顿上诉法院暂停该禁令。 来源 | 央视新闻客户端 ...

Group 1 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that removing Hamas leadership in Qatar would eliminate a major obstacle to achieving a ceasefire in Gaza [1] - The international community is closely monitoring the situation after a Russian drone unexpectedly entered Polish airspace, a NATO member [1] - The upcoming "central bank super week" will see interest rate decisions from G7 countries, excluding the US Federal Reserve, as well as from Brazil, South Africa, and Norway [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have shown strong bullish momentum, with a rise of over $360 in just four trading weeks, indicating robust demand [2] - The international silver market also saw an upward trend, reaching an annual high of $42.5 [2] - Domestic gold futures in China hit a historical high above 840, while silver futures continue to reach new highs, hovering around the 10,000 mark [2] Group 3 - Gold is currently experiencing high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the direction following a correction, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [3] - The price range for gold is currently between $3,612 and $3,674, with expectations that $3,674 is not a definitive peak but a temporary high [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,660-$3,657, with a potential breakout above these levels leading to new highs [5] Group 4 - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with key resistance levels at $3,657-$3,660 and support at $3,625 and $3,612 [7] - Trading strategies suggest focusing on selling at resistance levels and buying at support levels, with a cautious approach to avoid chasing the market [7]