Group 1 - The focus of the market has shifted to the release of delayed economic data following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which will impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the schedule for the release of the third quarter GDP revision and PCE data, with the GDP revision set for November 26 at 8:30 AM EST [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the release of some labor data, particularly the October Consumer Price Index, as the Labor Secretary indicated that the September employment report has been collected but not yet processed [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will have access to complete data on September employment, inflation, retail sales, and the initial third quarter GDP before the December 9-10 meeting, depending on the timely release of the October and November employment reports [1] - The final value of the third quarter GDP is scheduled for release on December 19 at 8:30 AM EST, and the October international trade report will be released on December 4 at 8:30 AM EST [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is stabilizing, but volatility indicators suggest potential significant fluctuations in the coming days as the government resumes data releases after the longest shutdown in history [1][3]. Group 1: Market Stability and Volatility - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stable at 4.08%, with significant divergence in market expectations regarding a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [1]. - The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, has risen to a one-month high after hitting a four-year low, indicating that upcoming economic data releases may trigger market volatility [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Data and Investor Sentiment - Investors are awaiting the resumption of government economic reports to gain insights into the Federal Reserve's final rate decision for the year, relying on private sector data during the data hiatus [1]. - The latest ADP data indicates a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, contributing to cautious investor sentiment [1]. - Traders are positioning for a potential drop in the 10-year Treasury yield below 4% as they anticipate that the upcoming data will confirm a weakening economic trend [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The clarity of the economic outlook and the Federal Open Market Committee's policy direction will be crucial for breaking the current narrow trading range of yields before the December rate decision [3]. - Concerns about the downside risks in the labor market are heightened due to inconsistent private sector data [3].

随着美国政府"停摆"临近结束,市场焦点正从政治僵局迅速转向即将重启的宏观经济数据。此次停摆造 成的大量经济数据延迟发布,使投资者短暂失去了政策与市场的导航仪,如今随着政府运作恢复在即,积压 已久的"数据洪流"即将释放,金融市场正进入一个关键的观察窗口。 第三季度GDP初值 —— 预计在停摆结束后约两周发布; 10月就业报告 —— 有望赶在美联储12月会议前夕公布。 鉴于本次停摆时间长、覆盖面广,部分10月数据如CPI、零售销售可能推迟至12月中下旬才能见到,这也 意味着,美联储在12月会议前掌握的经济信息仍将极为有限。 12月利率决议:数据拼图未完待续 在12月9日至10日即将召开的政策会议上,美联储将面临前所未有的"信息稀缺期"。按目前进度判断,决策 者能看到的核心数据主要集中在三方面: 数据堆积后的"洪水闸门" 本轮停摆自10月初持续至今,涵盖了整个10月份的数据收集周期,就业、通胀、零售销售等关键指标被迫 推迟,造成信息真空,随着政府恢复运作,市场预计数据将呈"阶梯式回归": 首波公布 —— 预计首份重要数据将是9月非农就业报告,或在停摆结束后约3个工作日发布; 第二波释放 —— 9月零售销售与生产者物 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial pressure faced by middle and low-income Americans may threaten the resilience of the U.S. economy, despite the benefits that wealthier households gain from the stock market boom [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, indicated that the upcoming interest rate decision in December will involve a "balanced consideration" [1] - The U.S. economy shows signs of resilience, but many Americans are struggling with housing and living costs [1] - There is evidence that middle and low-income families are facing affordability constraints [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Williams dismissed calls for changes to the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate mechanism [1] - He acknowledged concerns about potential over-investment and stock market bubbles, despite optimism surrounding productivity improvements driven by artificial intelligence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has not negatively impacted the dollar, which has risen, leading to declines in gold and silver prices. The focus is now on the upcoming ADP employment data rather than the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision or the government shutdown [2][4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices fell from around 4000 to a low of 3930, indicating a continuation of the previous downward trend. The market sentiment is cautious, with concerns about further declines [2][4]. - The current outlook for gold is characterized by a low-level consolidation rather than a clear bullish or bearish trend. The technical indicators suggest a potential for continued weakness, with the daily chart showing a bearish trend below the Bollinger middle band [4]. - A potential rebound is anticipated if gold can stabilize above 3975, with targets set at 4000 and 4050. Conversely, if it breaks below 3930, further declines to 3900 or 3880 may occur [5]. Silver Market Analysis - Domestic silver prices also experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai gold reaching a low of 907. The recommendation is to avoid chasing long positions and instead consider buying around 915 for Shanghai gold and 905 for domestic silver [5]. - International silver prices fell but remained around 47.2. A potential rebound is possible if prices can stabilize above 48, with targets set at 49.5 [5]. Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have shown minor fluctuations, maintaining around 60. The bullish sentiment remains, with a focus on whether the price can break above last week's high of 63, which could lead to a target of 66 [6]. - Domestic fuel oil prices have remained stable, with a potential upward target of 3000 if bullish momentum continues. If not, adjustments may occur, with support seen around 2700 [6].

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 11134, with an opening price of 11427.00 CNY/kg and a current price of 11168 CNY/kg, reflecting a decrease of 0.22% [1] - The highest price reached today was 11438 CNY/kg, while the lowest was 11122 CNY/kg, indicating a short-term sideways trend in silver futures [1] - The recent trading strategy suggests a bullish outlook for silver, with potential upward movement towards 11700 CNY/kg, while short-term trading opportunities may arise around 11200 CNY/kg [3] Group 2 - The U.S. House of Representatives staff have been notified that they will not receive their scheduled pay on October 31 due to a funding lapse, highlighting the direct impact of the government shutdown [2] - Bipartisan discussions are reportedly gaining urgency as key deadlines approach, with indications that more centrist Democrats may be willing to compromise on a temporary funding bill [2] - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, and will cease balance sheet reduction starting December 1 [2]

Core Points - The article discusses the recent developments in the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and their implications for the market [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve has made significant adjustments to its interest rate policy, impacting various sectors of the economy [2]. - The decision reflects ongoing economic conditions and aims to manage inflation effectively [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, market reactions have been observed, indicating investor sentiment and expectations for future economic conditions [4]. - The adjustments in interest rates are expected to influence borrowing costs and consumer spending patterns [5].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is under pressure due to trade uncertainties and a decrease in safe-haven demand, leading to a bearish outlook for gold in the near term [1][5]. Price Movements - Gold opened at $4,078.89 per ounce, reached a high of $4,108.76, and then fell to a low of $3,971.36 before closing at $3,981.20, marking a daily decline of $127.43 or 3.1% from the previous close of $4,108.63 [3]. - The price volatility for the day was $137.4, indicating significant fluctuations in the market [3]. Market Sentiment - Optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade relations is reducing the demand for gold as a safe haven, with the VIX index reflecting a decrease in market fears [5]. - Upcoming meetings between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to further clarify trade agreement details, which may impact gold prices [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold has reached a bearish resistance level, suggesting a potential decline towards $3,700 in the coming month [7]. - Weekly charts show a bearish reversal pattern, with expectations of further declines towards the 10-week moving average support around $3,850 [9]. - Daily charts indicate that gold has broken below the middle support level, with indicators suggesting continued bearish momentum unless it can stabilize above the 5-10 day moving averages [11]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,950 and $3,900, while resistance levels are at $4,045 and $4,075 [11]. - For silver, support is noted at $46.65 and $45.90, with resistance at $47.75 and $48.20 [11].

Group 1 - The media is criticized for sensationalism, reporting on the liquidation of long and short positions in a misleading manner during price fluctuations [1] - There is a lack of consensus among major financial institutions regarding gold price predictions, with Goldman Sachs forecasting $4,900 and Citigroup predicting a drop to $3,800, causing confusion among investors [2] - Since August 15, gold prices have risen from $3,200, showing strong upward momentum without significant pullbacks, with a potential breakthrough of $4,060 [3] Group 2 - Recent market volatility, driven by Trump's trade policies, has led to significant declines in cryptocurrencies, while gold has remained resilient, with investors increasingly bullish on gold [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and potential government shutdown are key factors influencing market sentiment, with expectations of rate cuts likely to support gold prices [3] - Current trading strategies suggest a bullish outlook for gold, with support levels identified at $4,010 and targets set between $4,060 and $4,080 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current market situation is perceived as chaotic, with uncertainties surrounding upcoming economic data and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3][4]. Economic Data and Federal Reserve - There is speculation about the delay of non-farm payroll data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 30 [3]. - The current interest rate is between 4.00%-4.25%, with a significant probability of a rate cut being anticipated [5]. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The market is currently experiencing volatility, with a focus on the resistance level around 3894, and a potential breakout could lead to further upward movement [7]. - The trading range is noted to be between 3852 and 3870, indicating a period of accumulation by institutional investors [7].