美联储利率决议

Search documents
金都财神:9.14黄金下周一行情走势分析及操作建议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 18:51
Market Overview - The gold market remains strong supported by multiple favorable factors, with Wall Street generally optimistic while Main Street shows caution but some optimism [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be a key catalyst in the short term, determining whether gold prices can reach new highs [1] Technical Analysis - Weekly analysis shows gold has risen for four consecutive weeks, with the weekly K-line showing four bullish candles and trading above the middle band, indicating a bullish trend [2] - Daily analysis indicates a slight pullback on Friday, with a small bullish candle formed, but indicators suggest a potential for a downward correction in the near term [2] - The four-hour analysis shows a narrow Bollinger Band and a slight decline at the end of Friday, with indicators pointing towards a bearish trend [2] Trading Recommendations - Suggested trading strategy includes selling near the 3653-3656 USD range with a stop loss at 3661 USD and a target profit at 3630-3620 USD [3]
高晓峰:9.12日内黄金最新策略及精准指导
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 02:29
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices have retreated from recent highs, with a minimum touch of $3613, entering a phase of consolidation while maintaining an overall bullish trend [1] - The market is currently focused on the resistance level at $3650, and if this level cannot be breached, gold prices may continue to adjust, with key support levels at $3610 and $3600 [1] - Ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the probability of breaking below $3600 is considered low, suggesting that the market is likely to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern [1] Group 2 - The operational strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips, with support levels identified in the range of $3630-$3625 for day trading [3] - The trend's critical dividing line is at the $3600 level, and maintaining a bullish approach is advised as long as prices stabilize above this level, while caution is recommended for short positions [3] - Specific trading actions should be adjusted based on real-time market signals [3]
黄金,探底拉升,今天3640区域定多空!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 01:27
昨天美国劳动统计局发布的数据显示,美国8月季调后CPI月率录得0.4%,为1月以来新高,高于市场预期和前值的0.3%;年率录得2.9%,为1月以来新高, 符合市场预期,较前值2.7%有所上升。季调后核心CPI月率录得0.3%,与市场预期和前值一致;年率录得3.1%,同样符合预期,并与前值持平。 美国至9月6日当周初请失业金人数录得26.3万人,为2021年10月23日当周以来新高,市场预期为23.5万人,前值从23.7万人下修为23.6万人。此前一天,8月 生产者价格指数(PPI)意外环比下降0.1%,同比上涨2.6%。 | 20:30 | ■ 美国8月未季调CPI年率 | | **** | 2.70% | 2.90% | 2.90 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ■ 美国8月季调后CPI月率 | ଜ୍ୱ ତ | ★★★★★ | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.4° | | | ■ 美国至9月6日当周初请失业金人数(万人) | ଜ୍ୱା ତ | ★★★★元: | 23.6 | 23.5 | 26. | | | ■ 美国8月季调后核心CPI ...
ATFX策略师:美国8月大非农预期悲观,美元指数或遭冲击
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-05 09:14
Group 1 - The core point of the articles revolves around the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, with expectations of a slight increase in employment figures, but concerns about the impact of immigration policies on labor data [1][2] - The previous non-farm employment figure was 73,000, with a forecast of 75,000 for the upcoming report, indicating a trend of employment figures remaining below 100,000 since May [1] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%, reflecting a stable trend in U.S. employment data since July 2024 [1] Group 2 - The ADP employment data for August showed a significant drop to 54,000 from the previous 106,000, suggesting that the non-farm payroll report may also reflect poor employment growth [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that employment levels have remained largely unchanged across most regions, suggesting that the non-farm payroll data will not deviate significantly from the previous figures [2] - The outcome of the non-farm payroll report is critical for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on September 18, with a poor report increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the U.S. dollar index has been experiencing low volatility and is forming a descending triangle pattern, with a potential downward breakout if the non-farm payroll report is disappointing [4] - Key support level for the dollar index is noted at 97.52, and a breach of this level could lead to a new downward trend [4]
特朗普突发,美股全线飘绿,黄金直拉
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-09-02 15:00
Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices each dropping over 1% at one point [1] - Major stocks such as Nvidia, Amazon, and AMD fell more than 2%, while Tesla and Meta dropped over 1% [1] Nasdaq and Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Composite Index opened at 21,086.58 and recorded a decline of 202.67 points, or 0.94% [2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index also saw a decline of over 1% during the session, with NIO falling more than 1% [2] - NIO reported its Q2 2025 delivery figures of 72,056 vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 71.2% [2] - The company's Q2 revenue reached 19.01 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 57.9% [2] European Market - Major stock indices in the UK, France, and Germany also showed declines [3] Economic Indicators and Central Bank Actions - European Central Bank member Simkus indicated that economic risks are materializing, suggesting no immediate reason to adjust interest rates, with a potential discussion on rate cuts in October [5] - In the context of declining stock markets, gold prices saw a slight increase, rising over 0.6% [5] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin experienced a short-term increase of 2.5%, trading at $111,200 per coin, while Ethereum rose over 2% to $4,383.93 [7] Political and Economic Developments - Former President Trump is expected to announce a "national housing emergency" to address the housing affordability crisis in the US [7] - A recent court ruling deemed much of Trump's global tariff policy illegal, which may lead to an appeal to the Supreme Court [7] - Upcoming US non-farm payroll data for August is anticipated to have significant implications, alongside key inflation data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions in the coming days [7]
ATFX汇评:美联储会议纪要显示,两名票委反对维持利率不变
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 10:16
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that two members opposed the decision to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 31 meeting [1] - Former President Trump has been vocal against the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, expressing dissatisfaction with the current chair, Jerome Powell [2] - The meeting minutes reflect a pessimistic outlook on the U.S. macroeconomic situation, with high inflation preventing the Fed from hastily resuming rate cuts [4] Group 2 - The committee noted a slowdown in economic activity growth in the first half of the year, while the unemployment rate remained low and the labor market was considered robust [3] - However, the August non-farm payroll report showed a surprising increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points, with only 73,000 jobs added, contradicting the earlier assessment of a stable labor market [3] - Trump's strategy appears to target Fed officials who support maintaining rates, potentially to intimidate others into favoring rate cuts without changing the Fed chair [2]
金荣中国:特朗普关税获标普认可,金价扩大跌幅空头逐步增强
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 02:49
Market Overview - International gold prices fell again on August 19, with an opening price of $3335.57 per ounce, a high of $3345.29, a low of $3320.92, and a closing price of $3322.60 [1] News Analysis - Trump criticized Jerome Powell on social media, claiming that his actions are severely harming the real estate industry and that there are no signs of inflation, suggesting a significant rate cut is necessary [2] - S&P confirmed the U.S. sovereign rating at "AA+/A-1+" with a stable outlook, indicating that while the fiscal deficit may not improve significantly in the coming years, it also will not worsen [2] - S&P projects that U.S. government net debt will exceed 100% of GDP over the next three years, with an average deficit of 6% of GDP from 2025 to 2028, down from 7.5% last year [2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 13.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 86.1% [6] Geopolitical Developments - Trump is arranging a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, emphasizing that the U.S. will assist Ukraine in defense but will not deploy ground troops [4] - Discussions are ongoing about providing Ukraine with security guarantees, although NATO membership is off the table [4] - A potential summit in Budapest involving U.S., Russian, and Ukrainian leaders is being planned, with security concerns regarding the location due to historical context [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with a significant drop leading to a short-term bottom reversal, and the market is expected to maintain a bearish outlook [9] - The short-term gold price trend indicates a strong downward movement, with the possibility of a correction due to oversold conditions [9]
美联储主席人事博弈升温,沃勒据称已成特朗普团队心仪人选
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-08-07 22:35
Group 1 - Christopher Waller is emerging as a leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's advisory team, noted for his willingness to base policies on forecasts rather than current data [1][2] - Waller has already met with Trump's team regarding the position, although he has not yet spoken directly with Trump himself [2] - Other candidates for the position include Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett, with Hassett having previously met with Trump and made a strong impression [2] Group 2 - Powell's term as Fed Chair ends on May 15, 2026, and he has stated multiple times that he will not leave early; Trump indicated that an announcement regarding the new Fed Chair could come soon [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% during its fifth consecutive meeting, with Waller and Michelle Bowman voting against the decision [2] - Following the rate decision, a non-farm payroll report showed a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth, aligning with Waller and Bowman's concerns [4] Group 3 - Waller, appointed to the Fed Board by Trump in 2020, has engaged in public debates on anti-inflation strategies with notable economists, asserting that the Fed could control post-pandemic inflation without significantly raising unemployment [4] - His predictions were validated as inflation rates fell below 3%, while unemployment remained below 4.2% [4] - Waller emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence for the U.S. economy and acknowledged that criticism is part of the role of the Fed Chair [5]
ATFX策略师:走势结构角度看,美元指数处于长期空头趋势下的筑底阶段
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-05 12:58
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in July, but there are significant internal divisions regarding future rate cuts [1] - The absence of Fed Governor Kugler during the meeting raised concerns about the internal disagreements within the Fed, especially after his resignation announcement [1] - The voting results showed that out of 11 committee members, 9 voted to keep rates unchanged, indicating a majority support for the current stance [1] Group 2 - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that the Fed may need to cut rates more than twice if the labor market weakens significantly [1] - President Trump expressed satisfaction with the Fed's decision, as a potential rate cut could align with his goal of lower interest rates, despite concerns about its impact on his approval ratings [2] - The dollar index is currently in a long-term bearish trend but is in a bottoming phase, with resistance at the 100-point level [4]
美联储真的搞砸了吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 00:03
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain stable borrowing costs, continuing a wait-and-see approach since January, as indicated by Chairman Jerome Powell, who noted a "robust" labor market [2] - The July employment report revealed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below the monthly growth needed to keep pace with population growth, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - The labor department revised down previous months' employment growth data, showing that job growth has been weak, with the average monthly growth from May to July being the slowest since 2009, excluding the pandemic recession [4] Group 2 - Internal dissent within the Federal Reserve has emerged, with Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman voting against the decision to maintain interest rates, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple governors have opposed a decision [6] - Both dissenting officials cited signs of weakness in the labor market as their main reason for disagreement, downplaying the potential impact of Trump's tariffs on prices [6] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed confidence in the decision made earlier in the week, despite the disappointing employment report, indicating a cautious approach to interpreting individual reports [7]