新华财经北京1月27日电美元指数日内继续下跌，逼近2022年2月以来低点。市场屏息等待美联储稍后的利率决议，以寻找美元方向线索。 欧洲交易时段盘中，美元指数日内跌幅扩大至约0.50%，现报96.61。其他主要货币对美元均维持涨势，欧元兑美元涨0.3%至1.1920，创2021年6月 以来最高水平。英镑兑美元涨0.4%至1.3730，创去年7月2日以来最高水平。澳元兑美元一度涨0.54%至0.6952，创2023年2月以来的新高。 高盛预计，美联储将在6月进行下一次25个基点的降息，随后在9月进行本轮周期最后一次降息，利率目标区间将降至3%-3.25%。这与联邦基金期 货合约目前定价大致相符，即到2026年底累计降息约46个基点。 （文章来源：新华财经） 当前汇市正处于政策敏感期，美联储利率决议、美国财政风险及地缘政治动向均可能成为打破僵局的关键变量。美元短线可能维持低位震荡格 局，直至美联储决议给出关于利率路径的更清晰信号。FP Markets分析师Aaron Hill表示，若鲍威尔明确回击政治压力，展现出捍卫美联储独立性 的坚定立场，可能推升美元；而若其表态倾向于支持渐进式降息，则可能进一步打压美元走势。 ...

Group 1: International Gold Market - The international gold price continued its strong performance on January 27, driven by rising financial and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to increased safe-haven demand [1][5] - The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the chairman's speech, with technical indicators showing a clear bullish trend for gold, despite potential short-term volatility [1][5] - Last week, gold surged nearly $400, indicating a strong bullish sentiment, but there are concerns about a potential significant pullback in the near future [6][7] Group 2: Short-term Trading Insights - The current trading phase for gold is characterized by a struggle between bulls and bears, with critical attention needed on key turning points [6] - The price levels of 5000-4990 (domestic 1122-25) remain bullish, with significant resistance expected at 5100 (domestic 1150), 5150 (domestic 1160), and 5200 (domestic 1172) [6][7] - A drop below 4990-5500 could indicate a high probability of 5111 being a short-term peak, necessitating caution in trading strategies [7] Group 3: International Oil Market - The U.S. oil market showed a slight decline, but the overall trend remains strong, indicating a potential consolidation phase requiring repeated fluctuations to solidify support levels [8] - Short-term trading strategies may need adjustment following the recent decline, with key focus on the price range of 60.2-60 for potential long positions [8] - Conservative traders are advised to wait for a pullback to the 20-day moving average around 59.2-4 for potential trading opportunities [8]

高盛首席美国经济学家戴维梅里克尔(David Mericle)在投资者报告中表示，预计美联储今年将实施两次 降息，首次降息落地6月。 梅里克尔称，市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔将在此次会议上强调，此前的降息举措将助力稳定劳动力市 场，目前美联储已具备充分条件评估降息的实际效果。 今日周二(1月27日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于109.23一线上方，今日开盘于103.93美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报110.97美元/盎司，上涨6.80%，最高触及111.12美元/盎司，最低下探103.34美元/盎司， 目前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 高盛集团预计，美联储将在本周的议息会议上维持利率不变。该行指出，沃勒和鲍曼两位理事可能支持 这一决定，而特朗普去年刚任命的理事米兰将成为唯一持反对意见者。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 如果白银价格突破120美元/盎司，则将为挑战130美元水平打开大门。若银价进一步上涨，下一个目标 将是150美元。 另外投资者将关注周二公布的美国ADP就业变化数据以及消费者信心指数，以评估美国经济韧性及货币 政策前景。市场焦点则将进一步集中于周三的美联储利率决议。 若射击之星形态触 ...

| 国投真报 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月26日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属延续强势。2026年以来，围绕委内瑞拉、伊朗以及格陵兰岛的地缘事件纷至沓来，特朗普对于全 球秩序的挑战加剧政治经济前景不确定性。特朗普称已通过一项北约协议，将允许美国对格陵兰岛实现全面 准入。美国航母已抵达中东,伊朗官员称伊武装力量已进入全面戒备状态。全球局势动荡令贵金属重心抬升 趋势难改，后续金价具备继续向更高维度冲击的潜力。短期黄金、白银分别冲破5000美元/盎司和100美元/ 盘司整数关口后需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to be a straightforward decision with no changes to the policy interest rate, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% [1][2] Group 1: Meeting Expectations - The majority of market participants anticipate that the policy interest rate will remain unchanged during the FOMC meeting [1] - The meeting is not expected to release a new dot plot or economic forecasts, and any modifications to the post-meeting statement are unlikely to convey substantial policy signals [1][2] Group 2: Voting Dynamics - Committee member Miran may vote against the decision, advocating for a rate cut of 25 or 50 basis points, while Bowman and Waller's voting positions are also of interest [2] - Bowman has indicated a likelihood of supporting a rate cut but remains open to pausing if economic conditions change, while Waller has expressed concerns about the labor market despite a recent drop in unemployment to 4.4% [2] Group 3: Statement Adjustments - The statement is expected to adjust the description of economic growth from "moderate" to "robust," while employment growth may still be described as slow but with a more stable outlook on unemployment [2] - Inflation is likely to continue being described as "slightly elevated," and the committee may remove references to rising employment downside risks [3] Group 4: Forward Guidance - The statement may eliminate the term "additional" from the phrase regarding adjustments to the target interest rate range, indicating a potential shift in forward guidance [3] - References to reserve management purchases are also expected to be removed, with asset balance sheet strategies not being a primary topic of discussion in the upcoming meeting [3]

Economic Indicators - The January PMI data will be released on January 31, with December's PMI at 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points, marking a return to the expansion zone after eight consecutive months below 50% [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision next week, with a 95% probability that rates will remain unchanged during the January meeting [2] - Citic Securities believes that the criminal investigation into Powell will not pressure the Fed into aggressive rate cuts, predicting a pause in rate cuts for January [2] Market Operations - The central bank's open market will have 11,810 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing next week, with a net injection of 2,295 billion yuan achieved this week [3] - The central bank will conduct a 9,000 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term on January 23 [3] Stock Market Developments - Over 40 billion yuan in locked-up shares will be unlocked next week, with January 27 being the peak day for unlocks [4] - The top three companies by unlock market value are Haibo Sichuang (23.154 billion yuan), Fostar (5.367 billion yuan), and Yifang Biotechnology-U (4.251 billion yuan) [4] New Stock Opportunities - Three new stocks will be issued next week, including Beixin Life on January 26 and Linping Development and Electric Science Blue Sky on January 30 [7]

Group 1 - The market is showing unclear performance following recent data shocks, with the ADP employment data falling short of expectations, which is bullish for precious metals, yet gold and silver have not seen significant upward movement and instead experienced a reverse adjustment [2] - The unemployment claims data met expectations, which is bearish for precious metals, but gold and silver also did not see significant declines, instead showing a trend upward, reaching a high of around 4485 [4][5] - Attention is now on the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which could provide real guidance for gold prices, with previous values at 64,000 and a market forecast of 60,000 [5] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for gold, with a rise from 4300 to 4400 and then to 4500, despite the recent data having limited impact on the overall bullish outlook [4][5] - The market is expected to remain in a bullish trend as long as it does not fall below 4400, with potential fluctuations between 4500 and 4400 [5] - Domestic gold prices have shown expected upward movement, with the Shanghai gold contract reaching a high of 1010, and the market is advised to wait for the non-farm data impact before making further moves [6] Group 3 - Silver has experienced significant downward adjustments, with prices dropping to 74, but there are indications of a rebound, and as long as the trend remains positive, there are opportunities for bullish positions [6][7] - The domestic silver market has also seen a decline, with the Shanghai silver contract dropping to around 17800, but after a rebound, it has risen to approximately 18500 [7] - The oil market has been fluctuating between 56 and 60, with recent highs reaching 58.8, and the expectation is for continued range-bound trading unless it breaks above 60 [7]

Group 1 - The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is reported at 7.0331, an increase of 27 points, marking the highest appreciation since September 30, 2024 [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January next year is 81.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 18.8% [5] - By March next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 46.9%, with a 44.7% chance of maintaining rates, and an 8.5% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.5% and 3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut since September 2023 [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, exceeding the potential unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a deteriorating job market [2] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 2.8% year-on-year as of September, with the core PCE price index increasing by 3.3%, close to the 3.4% level [2] - The decision to cut rates reflects a balance between rising unemployment and persistent inflation, which remains above the 2% target [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Committee Dynamics - In the December meeting, 9 out of 12 Federal Open Market Committee members supported the 25 basis point cut, while 3 opposed it, marking the first instance of dissent in six years [3] - The divergence among committee members indicates significant internal disagreements, with some favoring employment support and others prioritizing inflation control [4] - Political influences, including those from appointees by former President Trump, are pushing for more aggressive rate cuts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The outcome of the FOMC meeting is expected to positively impact Asian stock markets and currencies, driven by improved U.S. economic growth prospects and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Export-oriented stocks are likely to benefit from the improved outlook for U.S. economic growth [1] - The Federal Reserve's inclination towards a loose monetary policy may support expectations for interest rate cuts by Asian central banks [1] - This environment could also favor domestic demand-related stocks [1] Group 2: Economic Expectations - The dual benefits of stronger economic growth expectations and weaker inflation expectations have intensified market anticipation for larger interest rate cuts by 2026 [1]