Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, has seen an increase in holdings to 1,046.36 tons as of November 11, 2025, reflecting a rise of 4.3 tons from the previous trading day, amid a rebound in gold prices which are trading above $4,100 per ounce [7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 11, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings stand at 1,046.36 tons of gold, marking an increase of 4.3 tons from the prior day [7]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings coincides with a rise in spot gold prices, which reached a three-week high of $4,148.73 per ounce during the trading session [7]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Price Movements - On November 11, spot gold prices fluctuated, closing at $4,126.62 per ounce, up by $10.91 or 0.27% [7]. - The price of gold is supported by expectations of Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical risks, leading to a generally optimistic short-term outlook for gold prices [7][8]. - Recent employment data has reignited market hopes for interest rate cuts, with private sector layoffs averaging 11,250 per week, indicating challenges in job creation [8]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold has broken out of a consolidation range between $3,900 and $4,050, confirming a bullish breakout, although upward momentum appears to be stalling [8]. - The daily chart shows a neutral to bullish pattern, while the 4-hour chart indicates that gold prices are above all major moving averages, supporting further upward movement [8]. Group 4: Price Resistance and Support Levels - A strong breakout above the $4,150 resistance level could enhance bullish momentum, targeting $4,200 and potentially retesting historical highs around $4,381 [9]. - Key support levels are identified at $4,100 and a stronger support near $4,050 [9].

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. has announced a one-year suspension of the 301 investigation measures against Chinese shipbuilding, while China has suspended special port fees for U.S. ships for the same duration, indicating a cooling global trade sentiment [1] - The U.S. Senate has passed a temporary funding bill to end the government shutdown, which has improved market risk sentiment and may lead to increased U.S. debt issuance and further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [1] - Analysts expect that the Federal Reserve's easing expectations will keep gold prices in a strong upward trend, with a focus on the support level around $4100 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points in December, which may support oil prices as the dollar index remains below 100 [3] - Russian oil exports have significantly decreased from 1.41 million barrels per day to 810,000 barrels per day, with exports to India averaging 1.19 million barrels per day, indicating a short-term bullish outlook for oil prices [3] - Global economic uncertainties are decreasing due to trade agreements between the U.S. and other economies, suggesting a potential recovery in oil demand [3] Group 3: Dollar Index - There are internal divisions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy, with some supporting rate cuts while others urge caution [4] - Current probabilities indicate a 64.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, suggesting continued monetary easing is likely [4] - Recent price action shows a weak trend, but there are signs of potential stabilization near the 20-day moving average, with a focus on the support level around 99.32 [4] Group 4: Copper Market - Recent price action in copper has shown a downward adjustment, but the market has been oscillating above the 62-day moving average, indicating potential stabilization and a bullish outlook [6] - The market has regained the 20-day moving average, suggesting further upward movement is possible, with a focus on the support level around $4.97 [6] Group 5: Market Overview - President Trump has indicated a potential reduction in tariffs on India, signaling progress towards a trade agreement [7] - The U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on the temporary funding bill, which is crucial for ending the government shutdown [7] - The U.S. has suspended the 301 investigation measures against Chinese shipbuilding for one year, including the suspension of port fees [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index market, after a continuous rise, hot sectors are rotating rapidly, with technology remaining the main market theme. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - In the bond market, the central bank's restart of bond trading is short - term positive for bond market sentiment. In the medium term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is mainly affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. The overall bond market is expected to oscillate and repair [8]. - For precious metals, the short - term prices of gold and silver are expected to be boosted by the restoration of US dollar liquidity. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [10][11]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to be supported by supply tightness and may continue to oscillate strongly; aluminum prices may rise further due to supply concerns and improved export expectations [14][16]. - In the black building materials market, steel demand has entered the off - season, and the inventory risk of hot - rolled coils still exists. Iron ore demand is weakening, and prices are expected to run weakly in the short term [36][38]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different supply - demand situations. For example, rubber prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to set stop - losses and trade on short - term dips; crude oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short term [56][58]. - In the agricultural products market, different products also have different trends. For example, the future trend of the pig market is to short on rebounds; the egg market is expected to be sorted strongly in the short term [81][83]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will accelerate the cultivation of application scenarios in key areas; a new public offering regulation is under consultation; southbound funds' net purchases have reached new highs; the State Council has issued measures to promote private investment [2]. - **Base Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The base ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy View**: After a continuous rise, hot sectors are rotating rapidly, with technology as the main theme. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed. The US Senate has passed a temporary appropriation bill, and the State Council has issued measures to promote private investment [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 1199 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 416 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy View**: The central bank's restart of bond trading is short - term positive for bond market sentiment. In the medium term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is affected by multiple factors, and it is expected to oscillate and repair [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have risen, and the prices of COMEX gold and silver are provided. The balance of the US Treasury's TGA account has changed, and the spread between SOFR and the effective federal funds rate has widened [9]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term prices of gold and silver are expected to be boosted by the restoration of US dollar liquidity. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver main contracts [10][11]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The US government's potential reopening has led to a rebound in copper prices. LME copper inventory has increased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased [13]. - **Strategy View**: The reopening of the US government and the easing of trade tensions have boosted market sentiment. Refined copper supply is expected to tighten marginally, and copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term [14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have continued to strengthen. LME aluminum inventory has decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot social inventory has increased [15]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas supply concerns and improved export expectations may push aluminum prices higher. Attention should be paid to domestic inventory changes [16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai zinc index has declined slightly. LME zinc inventory and domestic social inventory have changed [17][18]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc smelting profit is under pressure, and domestic social inventory accumulation has slowed down. Shanghai zinc is expected to run strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [19]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai lead index has risen. LME lead inventory has decreased, and domestic social inventory has increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy View**: Lead prices are expected to run strongly in the short term due to the shortage of delivery products at home and abroad [21]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have oscillated at a low level. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron have changed [22]. - **Strategy View**: Refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, and nickel iron prices are weak, dragging down nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider building long positions if the price drops enough [23]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai tin main contract has risen. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand in emerging fields provides support [25]. - **Strategy View**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips [26]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has risen. The demand for power and energy - storage batteries is high, and inventory is decreasing [27]. - **Strategy View**: Lithium carbonate is in short supply, and inventory is decreasing rapidly. However, attention should be paid to the peak - season end and potential high - level selling pressure [27]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina index has risen. The base difference and overseas price information are provided [28]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas ore supply is expected to increase, and alumina production capacity is in surplus. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel main contract has risen slightly. The prices of raw materials and inventory information are provided [30]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel market is in a weak oscillation due to over - supply and weak demand [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy has risen. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots has decreased [32]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [33]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts have risen slightly. The inventory and spot price information are provided [35]. - **Strategy View**: The steel market is in a weak oscillation. Rebar supply and demand have both declined, and hot - rolled coil inventory is accumulating. Future demand may recover [36]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore main contract has risen slightly. The inventory and basis information are provided [37]. - **Strategy View**: Iron ore supply has decreased, and demand has weakened due to environmental protection restrictions and low steel mill profits. Prices are expected to run weakly in the short term [38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The price of glass main contract has declined. The inventory and position information are provided [39]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market lacks fundamental support, and prices are expected to run weakly in the short term [40]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The price of soda ash main contract has risen. The inventory and position information are provided [41]. - **Strategy View**: Soda ash supply is shrinking, and demand is stable. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts have risen. The spot price and technical analysis information are provided [43]. - **Strategy View**: The black market is affected by macro and fundamental factors. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on rebounds. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may follow the market trend [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon main contract has risen. The spot price and inventory information are provided [47]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon supply and demand are weak, and prices are expected to consolidate. It is recommended to wait for new drivers [48]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The price of polysilicon main contract has risen. The spot price and inventory information are provided [49]. - **Strategy View**: Polysilicon supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. Attention should be paid to the progress of the platform company [50]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices have rebounded. The market risk preference is expected to improve, and the supply - demand situation is provided [52][53][54]. - **Strategy View**: Rubber prices have rebounded as expected. It is recommended to set stop - losses and trade on short - term dips, and partially build hedging positions [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of INE main crude oil futures and related refined oil futures have risen. The inventory information of European ARA is provided [57]. - **Strategy View**: Oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol main contract has decreased. The supply - demand and inventory information are provided [59]. - **Strategy View**: Methanol supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea main contract has decreased. The supply - demand and inventory information are provided [60][61]. - **Strategy View**: Urea supply and demand are in a loose pattern, and prices are expected to be stable. It is recommended to wait and see [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply - demand and inventory information are provided [62]. - **Strategy View**: The price of styrene may stop falling temporarily. Attention should be paid to the repair of the BZN spread [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC main contract has risen slightly. The supply - demand and inventory information are provided [64]. - **Strategy View**: PVC supply is strong, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [65][66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol main contract has risen. The supply - demand and inventory information are provided [67]. - **Strategy View**: Ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase, and inventory is expected to accumulate. It is recommended to short on rallies [68]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA main contract has risen. The supply - demand and inventory information are provided [69]. - **Strategy View**: PTA supply is expected to increase, and demand is stable. Attention should be paid to the increase in PXN [70]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of PX main contract has risen. The supply - demand and inventory information are provided [72]. - **Strategy View**: PX load is high, and demand is weak. It is expected to follow the trend of crude oil in the short term, and attention should be paid to the increase in valuation in the medium term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE main contract is unchanged. The supply - demand and inventory information are provided [74]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the change in the cost - supply pattern [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP main contract has risen. The supply - demand and inventory information are provided [76]. - **Strategy View**: PP supply and demand are weak, and inventory pressure is high. Attention should be paid to the change in the cost - supply pattern in the first quarter of next year [77][78]. Agricultural Products Pig - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price has changed. The demand for pig prices is limited [80]. - **Strategy View**: The pig market is in a bearish pattern, and the strategy is to short on rebounds and consider reverse spreads [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The domestic egg price has changed. The supply and demand situation is stable [82]. - **Strategy View**: The egg market is expected to be sorted strongly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term, and short on rallies in the medium term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The price of CBOT soybeans has risen slightly. The domestic soybean inventory and crushing volume information are provided [84]. - **Strategy View**: The import cost of soybeans is expected to oscillate. Domestic soybean meal inventory is large, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [87]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and the inventory of domestic oils and fats has decreased. The prices of domestic oils and fats have rebounded slightly [88]. - **Strategy View**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia is high, suppressing prices. It is recommended to view palm oil as oscillating weakly before exports improve [89]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures has risen slightly. The export policy of India and the opening time of sugar mills in China are provided [90]. - **Strategy View**: The import control of syrup and premix has boosted sugar prices, but the external market is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is unchanged. The downstream demand and acquisition price information are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: The cotton market has weak demand and high supply. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak last Friday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a volatile trend. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and the positive signals released by the Sino-US summit, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future, but the demand is still weak in the short term [2]. - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do rebounds may have higher cost - effectiveness than shorting. The current macro factors are more important price - influencing factors than the weak fundamentals [11]. - Regarding manganese silicon, if the black sector strengthens, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end, which may drive the manganese silicon market. Otherwise, it is expected to follow the black sector's trend. Silicon iron is also likely to follow the black sector, with low operational cost - effectiveness [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products 3.1.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 124,240 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.87945 million lots, a decrease of 15,466 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3230 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3308 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%). The registered warehouse receipts were 98,537 tons, a decrease of 298 tons. The main contract position was 1.470219 million lots, a decrease of 3067 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3330 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views - The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to recover, but the production was still high, and the inventory, although decreasing, remained at a relatively high level [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 800.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.31% (- 2.50). The position changed by - 11,268 lots to 540,300 lots. The weighted position was 921,900 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 803 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 54.36 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.36% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to increase, with Australia remaining flat, Brazil increasing, and non - mainstream countries slightly decreasing. The near - end arrival volume was at a low level this year. On the demand side, the average daily hot metal output decreased, the number of overhauled blast furnaces was much larger than that of restarted ones, and the steel mill profitability reached a new low this year. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory declined. The iron ore demand continued to weaken, and the inventory pressure remained [5]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron 3.3.1 Market Quotes - On October 31, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 1.20% at 5772 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a converted basis of 5890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and a premium of 118 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 0.90% at 5500 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5530 yuan/ton, with a premium of 30 yuan/ton over the futures [9]. 3.3.2 Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal and lack major contradictions. Potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions and drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's trend [11]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.4.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% (- 55). The weighted contract position changed by - 16,059 lots to 408,543 lots. The spot price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 421 market price was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 200 yuan/ton for the main contract [13]. - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 56,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66% (+ 1460). The weighted contract position changed by + 9166 lots to 258,099 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 4160 yuan/ton for the main contract [16]. 3.4.2 Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persists. Although the production in the southwest region is decreasing during the dry season, the production in the northwest region is increasing. The demand support is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [14]. - For polysilicon, with some production capacity starting maintenance, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The policy expectations have a strong impact on prices [17]. 3.5 Glass and Soda Ash 3.5.1 Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1083 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 0.73% (- 8). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1130 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1120 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 65.79 million cases, a decrease of 823,000 cases (- 1.24%) [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1225 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 0.81% (- 10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1175 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (- 1.24%), with the heavy soda ash inventory decreasing by 48,100 tons and the light soda ash inventory increasing by 48,000 tons [21]. 3.5.2 Strategy Views - For glass, the supply is loose, the enterprise inventory is accumulating, the demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the production line operation in the Shahe area [20]. - For soda ash, affected by the weak glass market, the price is under pressure. The cost increase forms a certain bottom support, but the de - stocking process is slow. It is expected to continue a narrow - range shock in the short term [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a non - pessimistic view on the black sector. It is believed that finding callback positions to do rebounds may have higher cost - effectiveness than short - selling. The black sector's downward momentum has significantly weakened after nearly four years of decline. Overseas will face a situation of both fiscal and monetary easing, and China still has sufficient fiscal space and potential demand - supporting policies. [10] Summary by Category Steel Products Market Information - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 124,240 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous day. The main contract's open interest was 1.894916 million lots, an increase of 909 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it was 3230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3318 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-0.80%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 98,835 tons, a decrease of 5938 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.473286 million lots, an increase of 12,227 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai, it was 3330 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished products showed a volatile trend. Macroscopically, on October 30, Fed Chairman Powell indicated a shift towards a "loose" monetary policy, and the Sino - US summit released positive signals. Fundamentally, rebar's supply and demand both increased, and inventory continued to decline; the demand for hot - rolled coils continued to recover, but production was still high, and inventory, although decreasing, remained at a relatively high level. In the future, steel consumption may gradually recover, and short - term demand is expected to turn around with policy implementation and macro - environment changes. [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) closed at 802.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.25% (-2.00). The open interest increased by 8698 lots to 551,500 lots. The weighted open interest was 930,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 805 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 54.06 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.31%. [4] Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: The latest overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase and were at a high level. Australia's shipments were flat, Brazil's increased, and non - mainstream countries' shipments decreased slightly. The near - term arrivals were at a low level due to previous high arrivals. Demand: The average daily hot - metal output decreased by 3.54 tons to 236.36 tons, and the number of blast furnaces under maintenance far exceeded those being restarted. The steel mill profitability rate reached a new low, and some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance. Overall, the iron ore demand weakened, and inventory pressure remained. After the macro - events were realized, the fundamentals were weak, and there was a risk of a phased decline in ore prices. [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - **Manganese silicon**: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.17% at 5842 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures basis, with a premium of 68 yuan/ton. The price was in the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton and was approaching the downward trend line since July. [8] - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract (SF601) closed down 0.79% at 5550 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton. The price was in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and it faced pressure after touching the downward trend line since July. [8] Strategy Viewpoints - Important meetings had positive statements but no unexpected content. The black - sector fundamentals were worried about high supply and low demand, and there was a risk of "negative feedback" if steel mill profitability further declined. The report was not pessimistic about the black - sector's future and believed that buying on dips for rebounds was more cost - effective. Manganese silicon's fundamentals were poor, and potential drivers might come from the manganese ore end. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand fundamentals had no obvious contradictions and was likely to follow the black - sector trend. [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - **Industrial silicon**: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 9155 yuan/ton, down 0.16% (-15). The open interest decreased by 8091 lots to 424,602 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 145 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 255 yuan/ton. [12] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 54,950 yuan/ton, down 0.07% (-40). The open interest decreased by 1181 lots to 248,933 lots. Spot prices were mostly stable, and the main contract basis was - 2650 yuan/ton. There was news that domestic photovoltaic leading enterprises planned a joint stockpiling. [15] Strategy Viewpoints - **Industrial silicon**: Supply pressure persisted, with production increasing in the northwest and a potential decline in the southwest during the dry season. Demand support weakened as polysilicon plants were about to enter maintenance and the organic silicon DMC operating rate decreased. Cost factors provided some support, and short - term prices were expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. [13][14] - **Polysilicon**: Supply pressure might ease marginally as some plants enter maintenance. Downstream operating rates were expected to be stable, and the supply - demand pattern might improve, but short - term de - stocking was limited. Policy expectations had a strong impact on prices, and market speculation was intense. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of policies and platform - company progress. [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1091 yuan/ton, down 3.19% (-36). The spot prices in North China and Central China were unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 823,000 cases (-1.24%) to 65.79 million cases. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 88,841 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased by 163,567 lots. [18] - **Soda ash**: The main contract closed at 1235 yuan/ton, down 1.91% (-24). The spot price in Shahe decreased by 24 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises decreased by 10,000 tons (-1.24%) to 1.702 million tons, with heavy - soda inventory decreasing and light - soda inventory increasing. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 18,196 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased by 7845 lots. [20] Strategy Viewpoints - **Glass**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's meeting did not give clear guidance, and the "anti - involution" expectation was dashed, leading to a sharp increase in short positions and a decline in the price. Supply was abundant, inventory was accumulating, demand recovery was slow, and the price was expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the operation of production lines in Shahe. [19] - **Soda ash**: Affected by the weak glass market, the price was under pressure. Rising coal prices increased production costs, providing some support. However, the de - stocking process was slow, and inventory was higher than usual. The price was expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to plant operating rates and downstream purchase rhythms. [21]

【黄金期货最新行情】 中美代表10月26日就出口管制、对等关税进一步延长暂停期、芬太尼关税、芬太尼禁毒合作、进一步扩 大贸易、美方301船舶收费相关措施等议题进行谈判，双方形成了初步共识，将各自履行内部报批程 序。从双方表态来看，本次会谈结果超出市场预期，双方谈判议题涉猎广泛，并已达成框架，同时，经 过这一轮博弈，也可以看到中美双方贸易冲突趋缓的势头并没有改变，对资本市场风险偏好带来有效提 振。 特朗普计划年底前敲定美联储新主席人选。现货金跌破4000美元。 中国央行行长潘功胜宣布将恢复公开市场国债买卖操作，分析师预计央行国债买卖很快会重启，将有助 于稳定国债供需。 【机构观点】 广发期货： | 10月28日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 901.38 | -4.20% | 474483 | 175916 | 【黄金】 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 逻辑：中美贸易磋商达成共识，避险情绪消退，市场等待美联储决议，风险偏好上升；但美国经济受冲 击，美联储宽松预期仍存。 【基本面消息 ...

Core Insights - As of October 6, 2025, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, holds 1013.17 tons of gold, reflecting a decrease of 1.71 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a trend of slight reduction in holdings despite a significant rise in gold prices [6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On October 6, spot gold prices surged, reaching a record high of $3969.94 per ounce and closing near this level at $3960.85 per ounce, marking an increase of $74.38 or 1.91% [6]. - The rise in gold prices occurred despite a strengthening U.S. dollar and a rebound in global stock market risk appetite, suggesting strong buying interest in gold [6]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has heightened concerns about the labor market, with no signs of resolution from either Republican or Democratic lawmakers [6]. - Delays in economic data releases have added uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, with market expectations fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut later this month and a 94% probability of a rate cut in December [6]. Group 3: Global Political Climate - Political instability in Europe, particularly in France, where Prime Minister Leclerc resigned shortly after forming a new cabinet, has further exacerbated market risk aversion [7]. - In Japan, the election of a new leader in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is expected to lead to more accommodative monetary policies, increasing fiscal spending, and reducing the urgency for interest rate hikes [7]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The bullish structure of gold remains intact, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating an overbought condition but still showing an upward trend as long as it stays within the 70-80 range [7]. - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3970 (historical high) and $4000 (psychological level), while initial support is at $3900, with further levels at $3872, $3850, and $3819 [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous rise in the price of Shanghai silver futures is the result of the combined effects of macro - expectations, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. In the short term, there are risks, but in the long - term, the continuation of the interest - rate cut cycle and the growth of green energy demand will support the silver price [3]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that the pre - holiday market will continue to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - For gold, considering the long holiday, it is recommended to close long positions to avoid risks [10]. - For iron ore, the supply is stable, the steel mills are gradually resuming production, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high in the high - level wide - range oscillation [13][14]. - For glass, it is in an oscillatory upward trend, and a low - buying strategy can be maintained [18]. - For soybean oil, high inventory restricts the price increase space, and it should be treated with a bearish view in oscillation [22]. - For pulp, it is expected to be boosted before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but there is no improvement yet. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the low - level oscillation [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Shanghai Silver Futures - The price of Shanghai silver futures' main contract closed at 10,939 yuan/kg on September 29, with a single - day increase of 3.92%, reaching a phased high [3]. - Macro factors: The dovish speech of the new Fed governor supports a 150 - basis - point interest rate cut this year, and the market expects interest rate cuts in the next two meetings, reducing the cost of holding silver. Geopolitical tensions in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East lead to the continuous inflow of safe - haven funds into the precious metals market [3]. - Fundamental factors: In 2025, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to reach 3,659 tons, with a continuous shortage for five years. The significant increase in photovoltaic installed capacity drives the surge in industrial silver demand, and as 70% of silver is produced as a by - product of copper, lead, and zinc, production expansion is restricted [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures closed with a mid -阳线. The 2024 pension fund investment report shows stable operation, and the Politburo meeting aims to promote sustainable economic development. The pre - holiday market is expected to continue high - level oscillation [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold and silver are accelerating their upward movement, but due to the long holiday, it is recommended to close long positions [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The supply is stable, steel mills are gradually resuming production, and the molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. Near the National Day, steel mills start to replenish inventory. Technically, it closed with a negative line today but is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, suitable for high - selling and low - buying [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Technically, it is in an oscillatory upward trend. The daily melting is basically stable, the factory inventory is decreasing, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. A low - buying strategy can be maintained [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong is stable, the port inventory starts to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - high level. There is an expected boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement is seen yet. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the low - level oscillation [26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic commodity futures saw a majority decline, while silver and gold futures experienced significant gains against the backdrop of rising spot gold and silver prices [1] - As of the market close at 15:00, silver futures rose nearly 4%, while gold and apple futures increased by over 1%. Other commodities like lithium carbonate, crude oil, and peanuts saw slight increases [1] - In contrast, coal, industrial silicon, and coke futures dropped by over 4%, with the shipping index (European line) and pulp falling by more than 3%. Other commodities such as live pigs, red dates, and glass declined by over 2% [1] Group 2 - Jin Yuan Futures research report suggests that gold is expected to maintain a strong performance due to inflation meeting expectations, the Federal Reserve's continued easing outlook, and increased tariffs. Silver is still in a phase of catch-up driven by market dynamics [1] - Guangfa Futures report highlights that the warming expectations of the Federal Reserve's easing, increased overseas physical demand, and continued inflow of ETF funds are supporting silver prices. Despite domestic policies affecting commodity prices, the potential tariff policies on silver imports from the U.S. are strengthening bullish expectations [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The continuous rise in the price of Shanghai Silver futures is the result of the combined effects of macro - expectations, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. In the short - term, there are risks, but in the long - term, the silver price is expected to be supported [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to experience a small - scale oscillatory recovery next week [5]. - The gold market can continue to be bullish as the market starts to trade the October interest - rate cut expectation [10]. - For iron ore, one can conduct high - selling and low - buying operations as it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [13]. - For glass, a low - buying strategy can be maintained as it is in an oscillatory upward trend [18]. - The soybean oil market should be treated with a bearish view due to high inventories [22]. - For pulp, a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the range can be considered as it is in a low - level oscillation [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Focus (Shanghai Silver Futures) - The price of the main contract of Shanghai Silver futures closed at 10,632 yuan/kg on September 26, with a single - day increase of 2.27% and a trading volume close to one million lots [3]. - Macro factors: The dovish speech of the new Fed governor supports a 150 - basis - point interest - rate cut this year, and market expectations of interest - rate cuts in the next two meetings reduce the cost of holding silver. Geopolitical tensions drive safe - haven funds into the precious metals market [3]. - Fundamental factors: The global silver supply - demand gap in 2025 is expected to reach 3,659 tons, with a continuous shortage for five years. The surge in industrial silver demand driven by photovoltaic installations and limited production expansion due to by - product output exacerbate the shortage [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small negative line. The basic endowment insurance fund has achieved positive returns for 8 consecutive years, with an average annual investment return rate of 5.15%. US chip stocks were heavily sold [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold - After a three - day adjustment, gold showed a strong upward trend and reached a new high, so it can continue to be bullish [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Supply is stable, steel mills are gradually resuming production, and iron - water output is expected to remain high. Steel mills are replenishing stocks before the National Day. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Daily melting is basically stable, factory inventories are decreasing, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Technically, it is in an oscillatory upward trend [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventories suppress price increases [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong is stable, port inventories are slightly decreasing, and it is in a low - level oscillation. One can consider high - selling and low - buying within the range [25].