Group 1 - The "Beautiful Bill" expands the total deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion, primarily continuing existing policies [2][6][9] - The bill legalizes Trump's economic policies, enhancing federal control over local governments and increasing discretionary power in key areas [2][6] - The economic effects include a mild boost to the U.S. economy, benefiting traditional industries while negatively impacting low-income groups [3][21][32] Group 2 - The bill is expected to increase the annual GDP growth rate by an average of 0.1% from 2025 to 2034, with the most significant impact occurring between 2026 and 2028 [21][22] - The legislation will lead to a 3.9% income decrease for the lowest 10% of households, while the highest 10% will see an average increase of 2.3% [3][32] - Traditional and capital-intensive industries will benefit from investment depreciation incentives, while the renewable energy sector may suffer due to reduced subsidies [32][55] Group 3 - The supply of U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to remain stable, with a relatively friendly macro environment, although there may still be upward pressure on term premiums [4][35] - The fiscal deficit is projected to rise moderately, with tariff revenues potentially offsetting 54% of the deficit increase [40][56] - The bill is unlikely to trigger a significant debt crisis, but it may systematically elevate term premiums [5][45][56]

Group 1 - The performance of major markets has diverged significantly in the first half of the year, with the Dow Jones up 3.64%, Nasdaq up 5.48%, and S&P 500 up 5.50%, while the KOSPI index surged 28.04%, DAX index rose 20.09%, Hang Seng index increased by 20.00%, and IBOVESPA index grew by 15.59% [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw a nearly 14% increase in the first half of the year, marking the best performance for the same period since 2017 [1] - The shift of capital from the US to Europe and Asia is evident, driven by the US government's tariff policies and the resulting uncertainty in the US market [1][3] Group 2 - The US has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with expectations that this may become a norm due to political and policy uncertainties [2] - The rising US debt and persistent fiscal deficits are undermining market confidence and financial stability, leading to a potential decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets [2][5] - If the US does not effectively manage its debt, the long-term risk of a decline in dollar assets may increase, prompting investors to diversify into other assets [5] Group 3 - The economic growth in Europe and Asia is relatively stable, with declining interest rates attracting more capital, as investors seek value in previously underperforming markets [4] - The capital cycle that traditionally supported US assets is being challenged, leading to accelerated "de-dollarization" among global economies [4][7] - The potential for a financial crisis exists if the US continues to expand its debt, which could disrupt the global financial chain [7] Group 4 - The US dollar index has dropped over 10% in the first half of the year, the largest decline since 1973, attributed to slowing economic growth and rising debt levels [6] - The demand for long-term debt is raising concerns about a "gray rhino" risk, which could lead to a debt crisis affecting global financial markets [7] - Stablecoins are seen as a potential support for US debt, but they come with regulatory and liquidity risks that need to be addressed [8] Group 5 - Hong Kong is positioned as a leading area for stablecoin development, with expectations for enhanced regulatory frameworks and international cooperation [9] - By 2025, global capital is anticipated to continue flowing into emerging markets and digital assets, reshaping the global market landscape [10] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts may influence market stability, with potential implications for both US and Asia-Pacific markets [11] Group 6 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors, with expectations for continued growth [12] - A-share markets are expected to catch up with Hong Kong stocks, driven by government policies aimed at stimulating economic growth and innovation [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks of an unexpected downturn in the US economy, emphasizing the importance of monitoring unemployment rates and the implications of tariffs on trade and economic growth [1][5]. Economic Forecasts - The IMF has revised the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January [2][3]. - The US GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been lowered from 2.7% to 1.8%, reflecting a decline of 0.9 percentage points [2]. Key Economic Indicators - A rise in the unemployment rate to the range of 4.4-4.6% could trigger a "recession trade" in the market [1][5]. - The article highlights the uncertainty in trade, industrial production, and economic growth due to the implementation of Tariff 2.0 [1]. Currency Trends - There is a possibility of further depreciation of the US dollar, which may lead to an appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the dollar, similar to the situation observed in August-September 2024 [1][9]. - The potential for a gradual depreciation of the dollar may continue if the US government pursues fiscal balance and creates more room for interest rate cuts [9]. Economic Scenarios - The article outlines three possible scenarios for the US economy, indicating the risks associated with stagflation and the "triple whammy" of stocks, bonds, and currency [7][6].

Group 1 - The "Beautiful Bill" Act is expected to expand the total deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion, primarily continuing existing policies rather than introducing new ones [2][6][9] - The Act is projected to provide a mild boost to the U.S. economy, with an average annual increase in real GDP growth of 0.1% from 2025 to 2034, peaking at 0.8% during 2026-2028 [2][22][32] - The Act will negatively impact low-income households, with the lowest 10% of earners expected to see a 3.9% decrease in income due to cuts in medical assistance and SNAP benefits [3][32] Group 2 - Traditional and capital-intensive industries are likely to benefit from the Act, while the renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors may suffer due to reduced subsidies [3][32][55] - The Act includes significant increases in defense spending, with an additional $150 billion allocated, and immigration enforcement spending reaching a historical high of $1.74 trillion [13][16] - The Act's tax cuts are heavily skewed towards higher-income households, with the top 10% expected to see an average income increase of 2.3% [3][32] Group 3 - The liquidity of U.S. Treasuries is expected to remain stable, with manageable supply pressures and a friendly macroeconomic environment, although there may still be upward pressure on term premiums [4][35][45] - The projected federal debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach 103% by 2026 and 116% by 2030, but the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis remains low [5][45][56] - The Act's impact on inflation is anticipated to be minimal, with peak inflation effects projected to be only 0.12% by 2027 [22][32]

Group 1: Overview of the "Beautiful Bill" - The "Beautiful Bill" is expected to expand the total deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion, primarily continuing existing policies[1] - The bill includes tax cuts, increased spending on immigration enforcement, expanded defense spending, and cuts to welfare and renewable energy subsidies[1] - The overall deficit scale ranks among the highest since World War II, second only to the 1981 Reagan tax cuts when measured as a percentage of GDP[1] Group 2: Economic Effects - The bill is projected to moderately boost U.S. GDP growth by an average of 0.1 percentage points annually from 2025 to 2034, with the most significant impact occurring between 2026 and 2028, potentially reaching 0.8 percentage points[2] - The lowest 10% of income households may see a 3.9% decrease in income due to cuts in medical assistance and SNAP benefits, while the highest 10% could experience an average income increase of 2.3%[2] - Traditional and capital-intensive industries are expected to benefit, while the renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors may suffer due to reduced tax credits[2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Bond Liquidity - The supply of U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to remain stable, with manageable macroeconomic conditions, although there may still be upward pressure on term premiums[3] - The projected increase in the deficit rate for next year is around 0.7%, potentially reaching approximately 7%[3] - The federal government's leverage ratio is anticipated to reach 103% by 2026 and 116% by 2030, but the risk of a sovereign debt crisis remains low[3] Group 4: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Major U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 increasing by 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 2.3%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.4%, while the dollar index fell by 0.3% to 96.99[4] - The upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions raises concerns about potential tariff escalations, with about 20 countries facing the possibility of reinstated tariffs[4]

Group 1 - The performance of US stocks has lagged behind other major markets in 2023, with the Dow Jones up 3.64%, Nasdaq up 5.48%, and S&P 500 up 5.50%, while the KOSPI index surged 28.04% [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose nearly 14% in the first half of the year, marking its best performance since 2017, indicating a shift of funds from the US to Europe and China [1] - The US dollar index experienced its largest decline in over 50 years, dropping more than 10% in the first half of the year, which has negatively impacted the performance of US stocks [1] Group 2 - The IMF has downgraded the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, with the US GDP growth revised down from 2.7% to 1.8% and the Eurozone GDP growth from 1% to 0.8% [2] - The proposed "Beautiful Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulus effects, while increasing long-term debt supply pressure [2] - The trade policies of the US are expected to slow global economic growth and reignite inflation, with a 40% chance of recession in the US in the second half of the year [7] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the current US trade policies are undermining the capital circulation system, leading to a decline in confidence in US assets and a shift towards lower-valued markets in Europe and China [3][4] - The S&P 500 index's forward P/E ratio has risen above 23, indicating that US stocks may be overvalued compared to earnings expectations, which could deter investor interest [5] - The upcoming earnings season for US stocks is expected to be challenging, with potential profit margin pressures due to increased tariffs [7] Group 4 - The market is experiencing a shift towards regionalization, with central banks diversifying their foreign exchange reserves and reassessing traditional trade and supply chain structures [3] - Non-US assets have received strong liquidity support in the first half of the year, with international funds favoring markets in China and Europe [10] - The outlook for the Chinese equity market remains positive, with expectations of revenue and profit growth for the CSI 300 index in 2025 and 2026 [10]

Economic Trends - The U.S. economy has shown signs of weakening, with hard data beginning to align with previous soft data trends, confirming earlier conclusions about a cyclical downturn starting in 2025[2] - The PMI is below 50% and overall economic conditions are deteriorating, indicating stagflation similar to the situation in 1985[4] Currency and Market Performance - The U.S. dollar has depreciated over 10% in the last five months, dropping from a historical percentile of 86% to 57%[2] - Despite the dollar's decline, the U.S. stock market has reached new highs, which was previously underestimated in terms of resilience[2] Historical Context - Historical analysis shows that during similar periods of dollar depreciation (over 11% in five months), the stock market generally experienced gains, particularly in 1985, 2009, and 2010[3] - The current market conditions resemble those of 1985 and 2002, where the stock market did not experience significant declines prior to the dollar's depreciation, affecting subsequent rebounds[4] Future Outlook - The continuation of the current trend of a declining dollar and rising stock market will depend on economic recovery and policy measures, such as interest rate cuts or quantitative easing[4] - The stock market's equity risk premium (ERP) has returned to negative territory, indicating low value for future rebounds compared to historical standards[4] Inflation Concerns - Input inflation is expected to rise due to the dollar's weakness, with predictions that CPI will exceed 3% by the end of the year if monthly increases remain around 0.2%[8] - Recent data quality issues in CPI calculations have raised concerns about the accuracy of inflation metrics, with estimation rates increasing from 10% to 30%[7] Policy Implications - The potential for tax cuts and monetary easing in the second half of the year could significantly impact inflation and market dynamics[6] - The balance of Trump's aggressive policies and their effects on market perceptions will be crucial in determining future market stability[6]

智通财经APP获悉，中金策略分析师刘刚在自媒体平台表示，美股近期再创历史新高，纳指跑赢全球多数指数。该行曾在4月8日提示不建议继续做空。市场 对"股债汇三杀"的担忧更多源于短期流动性冲击和长期外推预期，而非基本面恶化。2025年下半年展望中，中金认为"去美元化"共识存在预期高度趋同的问 题，且难以提供短期操作指引。美元小幅下跌对美股有利，市场误区在于将"去美元化"与美元走弱直接关联。不过，三季度仍需关注关税谈判、债务上限等 潜在扰动因素。 中金主要观点如下： 该行在4月8日底部附近提示，纳指估值跌到20倍估值逐步具备吸引力，至少也不应该再做空。在"股债汇三杀"担忧最严重的时候提示，这种担忧更多是短期 流动性冲击和基于外推预期的一些长期担心所致。 在2025下半年展望中，该行并不特别认同"去美元"的共识，提示这一预期高度趋同、而且主要是基于无法证实和证伪的宏大叙事。宏大叙事的最大问题就是 无法提供短期操作指引，究竟是5年后兑现、还是今年内兑现，究竟是跌50%、还是跌5%，都难以回答。 美元的下跌并非都是"去美元化"的体现，而且小幅的下跌对美股反而是有利的，市场的误区在于直接将去美元化和美元弱画等号，把美元弱和美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in global macroeconomic narratives from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism," driven by factors such as tariff impacts, fiscal constraints, and the implications of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" [2][8]. Group 1: Narrative Shift - The global macroeconomic narrative has transitioned from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" in the first half of 2025, influenced by tariff disruptions and trade conflicts [3][8]. - In early 2025, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained above the neutral mark for three consecutive months, indicating resilience in industrial production, but fell below 50 in April [2][8]. - The IMF revised its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, with the U.S. forecast reduced from 2.7% to 1.8% [2][23]. Group 2: Economic Contradictions - The economic impact of tariffs has become a central theme, with the focus shifting to macro data validation rather than negotiation processes [4][53]. - The average tariff rate in the U.S. surged from 2.4% at the end of 2024 to approximately 16% by May 2025, marking a significant increase [4][54]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulation effects but could increase long-term debt supply pressure [4][84]. Group 3: Paradigm Shift in Asset Safety - The current economic baseline for the U.S. is a slowdown without recession, with inflationary pressures expected to persist for 2-3 quarters [5][8]. - The article suggests that if the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds no longer serve as "safe assets," it could challenge the high valuations of U.S. tech stocks and the sustainability of twin deficits [6][8]. - The transition from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" raises questions about the long-term viability of U.S. assets in the global market [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The major expectation gap in the global macroeconomic landscape for the first half of 2025 is the disproof of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, influenced by factors such as the Deepseek moment, Trump's tariff impacts, and fiscal constraints in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Narrative Shift - The narrative is shifting from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism," with the global macroeconomic environment remaining stable overall, despite tariff disruptions affecting global industrial production and trade [2][3] - In the first quarter of 2025, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained above the 50 mark for three consecutive months, indicating expansion, but fell back to 49.8 in April [2] - The IMF has revised down its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8% [2] Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs and Legislation - The tariff-induced economic shock is expected to be a central theme throughout the year, with a focus on macro data validation rather than negotiation processes [4] - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulation effects, while increasing long-term debt supply pressure due to higher deficits [4] - The act includes approximately 80% of existing tax cut extensions and 20% of new tax measures, which may not fully offset tariff revenues [4] Group 3: Paradigm Shift in Asset Safety - The baseline assumption for the U.S. economy under current tariff levels is "slowing but not recession," with inflationary pressures and economic downturn risks being relatively balanced [5] - Bloomberg consensus anticipates that inflation rebound will last for about 2-3 quarters, with year-end PCE and core PCE inflation peaks expected at 3.1% and 3.3%, respectively [5] - The U.S. may have entered a phase of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, driven by high inflation and twin deficits, which could undermine the perceived safety of U.S. assets [5][6]