Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that fiscal easing has intensified in March, with significant support for economic growth from expanded fiscal policies [1] Fiscal Policy Analysis - In the first quarter, the broad fiscal expenditure (general public budget + government funds) increased by 5.6% year-on-year, surpassing the nominal GDP growth rate of 4.6% [1] - The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure in March rebounded sharply to 10.1% from 2.9% in January-February, indicating strong spending momentum [1] - Notable increases in spending were observed in infrastructure-related areas such as agriculture, forestry, water affairs, and energy conservation and environmental protection, aligning with the high growth in infrastructure investment in March [1] Fiscal Deficit and Future Outlook - The broad fiscal deficit in March reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 366.1 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, reflecting an intensified fiscal policy expansion [1] - Looking ahead, the implementation of tariff policies in April may disrupt exports, highlighting the necessity for further fiscal easing in the second quarter [1] - The stability of fiscal revenue growth is crucial for the sustainability of fiscal expansion [1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core View - Due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations, global fiscal easing expectations, the continuous gold purchases by central banks, and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. Summaries by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: On April 15, 2025, the closing price was 762.00 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of - 0.14 yuan and a weekly increase of 34.41 yuan. The trading volume was 447,203.00 contracts, a daily decrease of 163,545.00 contracts and a weekly decrease of 80,413.00 contracts [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: The trading volume was 39,928.00 kilograms, a daily decrease of 19,940.00 kilograms and a weekly decrease of 36,902.00 kilograms. The holding volume was 199,728.00 kilograms, a daily decrease of 3,700.00 kilograms [1]. - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 7,746.00 yuan/ten - grams. The trading volume of the spot Shanghai Silver T + D was 497,504.00 kilograms, a daily decrease of 64,762.00 kilograms and a weekly decrease of 280,640.00 kilograms [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,246.90 dollars/ounce, with a daily increase of 20.10 dollars. The trading volume was - 185,470.00 contracts, and the holding volume was 345,990.00 contracts [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 32.31 dollars/ounce, with a daily increase of 0.03 dollars. The trading volume was - 22,225.00 contracts, and the holding volume was 62,913.00 contracts [1]. Important Information - **Geopolitical and Trade**: Japan is not ready to make major concessions to the US and is not eager to reach an agreement. EU - US trade negotiations are at a deadlock, and the EU expects the US not to revoke most tariffs on Europe. The New York state manufacturing industry has shrunk for two consecutive months, and order expectations have dropped to the worst level since 9/11 [1]. - **US Fiscal Policy**: The US Congress has passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, 2025, including a 5.3 - trillion - dollar tax cut in the next decade, a 5 - billion - dollar increase in the debt ceiling, and a 4 - billion - dollar reduction in government spending. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be exhausted between August and September [1]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The Fed may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 more rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates around July [1]. Trading Strategy - For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,050 - 3,150 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,300 - 3,700 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 720 - 740 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 780 - 870 yuan/gram. For London silver, focus on the support level around 28 - 30 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 35 - 36 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 7,400 - 7,800 yuan/ten - grams and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/ten - grams [1].

Employment Data - In February, the U.S. added 151,000 non-farm jobs, slightly below the expected 160,000, with the previous two months' figures revised down by 2,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1%, while hourly wages increased by 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.5%[2] - The employment diffusion index improved from 52.4 to 58.4, indicating a slight recovery in job expansion despite sector-specific weaknesses[2] Economic Outlook - The mixed economic data has alleviated some recession fears, but the "tight fiscal" approach from the Trump administration is impacting market sentiment negatively[3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 3.51% to 103.84, marking its lowest level since November 2022, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices dropped by 3.1% and 3.45%, respectively[3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model revised its Q1 2025 GDP growth forecast down from -1.48% to -2.41%[3] Sector Analysis - Job losses were concentrated in specific sectors, with the federal government losing 10,000 jobs and leisure and hospitality losing 16,000, primarily due to adverse weather conditions[2] - The service sector showed resilience, with the service PMI at 53.5, exceeding expectations of 52.5, while manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3, below the expected 50.8[3] Fiscal Policy Impact - The divergence between U.S. "tight fiscal" policies and the Eurozone's "fiscal easing" narrative is creating volatility in the markets, particularly affecting U.S. equities[5] - The expectation of limited room for substantial cuts in the U.S. fiscal deficit is influencing market sentiment and risk assets negatively[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected policy shifts from Trump, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflationary pressures, and prolonged high-interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[6]