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巴菲特对黄金判断的局限性
雪球· 2025-04-24 07:53
长按即可参与 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: KYXI 来源:雪球 巴菲特1998年曾有一段非常知名的表述 , 他说 : " 黄金从非洲和其他地方的地底下挖出来 。 之后人们将 其熔化成型 、 打孔 , 然后又放到地底下的金库里 , 还要花钱找人在金库四周保护 。 黄金没有任何用途 。 要是金星人看到地球人这么看重黄金 , 想破头也想不明白 " 。 " 你可以把所有开采出来的黄金放在一起 , 它们可以填满一个长宽高都为67英尺的立方空间 。 按照当前 的黄金价格计算 ( 当时黄金已到每盎司1350美元上方 ) , 和这些黄金价值相当的钱可以让你买下全部美 国耕地 , 不是部分 , 而是全部 。 此外 , 你可以买下10家埃克森美孚 。 然后你还有1万亿美元的闲钱 。 或者 , 你可以拥有一个巨大的金属立方体 。 你会选择哪种做法 ? 哪种做法能产生更多价值 ? " 此后的多次股东大会上 , 他也曾明确表达过 远离黄金 的建议 。 因为在他看来 , 黄金没有生产能力 , 不能用已有的黄金生出更多的黄金 ; 黄金的实际用途不多 , 只在工业和珠宝饰品领 ...
黄金,还能涨吗?
天天基金网· 2025-03-21 11:54
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in gold prices, attributing it to changes in supply and demand dynamics, particularly the declining safety of sovereign debt and increasing global demand for safe-haven assets [3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Increase - The decline in the safety of sovereign debt, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds, has raised concerns about credit risk, leading to a global shortage of safe assets [3]. - The global demand for gold is expected to reach a record high of 4,974 tons in 2024, surpassing the previous year's demand of 4,899 tons, driven by increased purchases from central banks and geopolitical uncertainties [3][4]. - The geopolitical landscape, including the prolonged Ukraine crisis and tensions in the Middle East, has heightened risk aversion, further boosting the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchases and Market Dynamics - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with 1,082 tons bought in 2022 and 1,037 tons in 2023, indicating a strong long-term demand support for gold prices [11]. - The restructuring of the global monetary system, driven by factors such as the deterioration of U.S. fiscal and trade deficits, has diminished confidence in the dollar, making gold an attractive alternative [13]. - The article highlights that the relationship between the dollar and gold typically behaves like a seesaw, where a weaker dollar tends to drive gold prices higher [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors can diversify their portfolios by including gold, which serves as an effective hedge against systemic risks [10]. - Various investment methods in gold are available, including physical gold, paper gold, gold stocks, gold futures, and gold funds, with a recommended allocation of 10% to 15% of the investment portfolio in gold for optimal diversification [14]. - Multi-asset allocation strategies, such as those employed by FOF products, can provide a balanced approach to investing in gold while mitigating the volatility associated with single-asset concentration [15].