Group 1 - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the Kondratiev wave, highlighting the historical context of major power shifts and the impact of technological revolutions on economic cycles [12][18][31] - The comparison between the 1930s trade war and current economic conditions suggests that the current global trade dynamics are more complex, with a higher percentage of GDP tied to global trade [3][11][30] - The report indicates that the current monetary system is undergoing a transformation, with the dollar facing challenges similar to those faced by the British pound in the 1930s, while gold is expected to appreciate as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation [2][31][32] Group 2 - The analysis of tariff impacts reveals that the quantitative effects of tariffs today may be significantly greater than those in the 1930s, while the price effects may be limited [3][4][30] - The report discusses the macroeconomic policy responses, noting that current strategies in China, such as dual monetary and fiscal easing, are seen as effective in stimulating domestic demand [4][5][30] - The fragmentation of trade patterns is highlighted, with the emergence of a multipolar trade currency system driven by current tariff policies and geopolitical tensions [4][5][30] Group 3 - The report outlines the political motivations behind tariffs, linking them to rising income inequality and the protection of traditional industries [5][6][30] - The technological revolution is identified as a key driver of the Kondratiev wave, with AI and related technologies poised to shape the next economic cycle [4][12][31] - The historical context of trade negotiations is examined, showing how surplus countries have historically sought to lower tariffs while deficit countries have maintained barriers [4][5][30]

Group 1 - The global economic system is undergoing a reconstruction driven by changes in the trust foundation, primarily influenced by shifts in international relations, leading to a gradual "de-dollarization" process [1] - The long-term bull market for gold should be viewed from a historical perspective, as the trend of declining trust among countries is unlikely to change, indicating a historical shift in the gold market [1] - In the long run, as long as the U.S. economy maintains its correction capabilities, the dollar will not collapse; however, in the medium to short term, there are concerns about a potential decline in dollar credit [1] Group 2 - Domestic macroeconomic policies are expected to continue marginally increasing, particularly after July, with hopes for further fiscal policy support and potential comprehensive interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [2] - The short-term economic demand in China needs to be boosted to achieve a growth target of around 5% by 2025, necessitating active policy measures [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices to $3,300 per ounce is primarily driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the potential military action by Israel against Iran's nuclear facilities, alongside expectations of economic slowdown and inflation in the U.S. which are favorable for gold [1][4]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The main factors affecting gold prices include: - **Dollar Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Policy**: A weaker dollar enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. The current dollar index is around 100, providing support for gold prices. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 (projected cuts of 75-100 basis points) reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, benefiting its price [7]. - **Geopolitical Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand**: Recent fluctuations in U.S. tariff policies and uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire have heightened risk aversion. Historical data indicates that geopolitical conflicts typically boost gold prices by approximately 12% [7]. - **Inflation Outlook**: Gold is known for its anti-inflation properties. As a non-fiat currency, its scarcity and stability make it a valuable asset during periods of declining purchasing power of paper currency. For instance, during the high inflation period of the 1970s in the U.S., gold prices soared from $35 to $800 per ounce [7]. - **Central Bank Purchases and Supply-Demand Dynamics**: In 2024, global central banks are expected to net purchase 1,045 tons of gold, reflecting a continued trend of de-dollarization in emerging markets [7]. 2025 Gold Price Outlook - Currently, gold prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations, with resistance at $3,500 per ounce and support between $2,900 and $3,200 per ounce. Financial institutions predict that gold prices may exceed $4,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by global debt expansion, with U.S. debt projected to reach $44 trillion, and potential restructuring of the monetary system [9]. - Gold is increasingly viewed as a viable asset allocation option, with recommendations suggesting that gold should not exceed 20% of household assets. A diversified approach involving gold ETFs, physical gold bars, and mining stocks is advised to mitigate risks. Gold serves as a long-term tool against credit depreciation, despite experiencing a prolonged bear market from 2011 to 2015 [9]. - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are likely influenced by Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to weakening dollar credit and global debt risks [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the price rhythm of gold from the perspective of trading structure, highlighting the significant role of central bank gold purchases and investment demand in driving gold prices upward in 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Purchases and Demand - Central banks are projected to purchase approximately 1,044 tons of gold in 2024, becoming a crucial driver for gold price increases [1]. - The investment demand for gold is expected to reach 1,179 tons in 2024, indicating a shift in demand dynamics as prices rise [1]. Group 2: Consumer and Industrial Demand - Global gold jewelry consumption is anticipated to decline by 11% year-on-year in 2024, amounting to around 1,877 tons, due to high gold prices suppressing consumer demand [1]. - Industrial demand for gold remains low and stable, projected at only 326 tons in 2024 [1]. Group 3: Trading Structure and Market Dynamics - There has been a significant increase in gold ETF sizes, with domestic gold ETFs seeing a rise of over 50 billion in April, corresponding to a demand for 50-60 tons of physical gold [1]. - A surge in trading volume for A-share gold stocks has been observed, indicating heightened investor enthusiasm for gold investments and a crowded trading environment [1][2]. Group 4: Macro Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The current rise in gold prices is driven by a decline in the credibility of the US dollar and a restructuring of the monetary system, particularly following the freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves in 2022 [2]. - Increasing uncertainty in the global investment landscape, exacerbated by issues such as the US debt ceiling and unpredictable government policies, is likely to continue pushing investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [2].

截至北京时间5月5日18:18，纽约黄金期货报3322.4美元/盎司，日内涨幅超2.4%。现货黄金报3313.62美 元/盎司，日内涨幅超2.2%。 据央视新闻报道，全球贸易紧张局势缓和、投资者避险情绪降温，加之美元指数小幅反弹，上周四国际 金价跌至两周来低点，上周累计下跌1.67%，已连续第二周下跌。 金价又反弹了，纽约黄金期货、现货黄金纷纷突破3300美元/盎司。 自4月22日突破3500美元/盎司、创历史新高后，近期国际金价经历一轮过山车走势。 兴业研究则表示，由于全球产业链重构以及货币体系重构，金价大周期依旧看好。但没有品种的价格是 只涨不跌，阶段性顶底往往是交易出来而非预测出来的。 民生证券认为，技术层面黄金过去积累对应的上涨空间已基本兑现，未来价格继续上行需要进一步积累 或者有新增增量资金入场，短期或较为疲软。综合来说，黄金短期或阶段性休整，但是长期上涨逻辑不 变。 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 来源：综合自央视新闻、券商研报、Wind 世界黄金协会发布的报告显示，一季度全球金价20次突破历史新高，受此影响，全球金饰消费总量同比 下降21%，为2020年以 ...

整体来看，尽管短期需警惕技术性回调风险，但多重宏观因子仍支撑黄金长期走牛：美元指数中枢下 移、全球滞胀风险升温、央行购金常态化形成三重复合驱动，黄金作为避险资产和财富保值的价值凸 显。 2025年开年以来，国际黄金市场呈现持续走强态势，领跑全球大类资产。虽然4月3日受美国加征关税政 策冲击，黄金价格随全球风险资产同步下挫，但其凭借优异的流动性优势率先实现V型反弹。4月22日 盘中更创下3500美元/盎司历史新高，成功突破关键整数阻力位。 多重因素推动之下，黄金成为资本投资的较优选择，在投资者的争相追逐中表现亮眼。本轮黄金上涨的 核心驱动要素包括：1、信用体系重构：特朗普政府重启关税政策引发美元资产抛售潮，美股、美债及 美元指数同步承压。美联储政策独立性遭受质疑，全球货币体系稳定性降低，黄金作为终极信用对冲工 具的价值凸显。2、地缘政治溢价：俄乌冲突常态化与美伊核谈判僵局形成双重风险敞口，叠加中东局 势持续紧张，避险需求维持高位运行。3、央行储备多元化：Q1全球央行黄金净购入量达224吨，中俄 等新兴经济体增持规模同比激增38%，机构配置需求形成强力支撑。 中期维度来看，后市黄金依然处于上涨通道，首先，全球去美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Warren Buffett's long-standing skepticism towards gold as an investment, emphasizing its lack of productive capacity and practical utility compared to income-generating assets like stocks and bonds [3][4]. Group 1: Strategic Value of Gold - Buffett's view underestimates gold's role as a "super-sovereign reserve" and its institutional demand, as evidenced by central banks purchasing 1,045 tons of gold in 2024, with China's reserves reaching 2,292.33 tons by March 2025 [5]. - The systemic impact of de-dollarization is underestimated, with U.S. government debt reaching $36.1 trillion (120% of GDP) and the dollar index declining by 8.53% since 2025, leading to concerns about the dollar's status as a reserve currency [5]. Group 2: Fear-Driven Investment - The article argues that fear has transformed into a long-term risk hedge, with sovereign funds and insurance companies incorporating gold into their portfolios due to structural uncertainties like geopolitical conflicts and financial market vulnerabilities [7]. - Data shows that gold prices increased by 25% during the Fed's interest rate hike cycle in 2024, and by 26.7% in early 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, indicating institutional demand rather than mere speculative behavior [7][10]. Group 3: Repricing of Risk Assets - The article highlights that gold's pricing logic as a "anti-fragile asset" is often overlooked, as its value increases when dollar credit is shaken, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle of institutional allocation [9][14]. - The scarcity of gold, with central banks purchasing 1,045 tons in 2024, represents 28% of that year's mine production, providing long-term price support beyond traditional supply-demand dynamics [14]. Group 4: Non-Productive Assets in Modern Portfolios - The article critiques Buffett's assumption that asset value must derive from productivity, arguing that gold's low correlation with equities makes it an essential tool for risk diversification in modern investment portfolios [15]. - In 2025, gold's weekly correlation with the S&P 500 was -0.03, indicating its effectiveness in hedging against stock and bond volatility, especially during market downturns [15]. Group 5: Inflation Hedge and Monetary Economics - The article asserts that gold's anti-inflation properties are often ignored, as it serves as a hedge against currency devaluation, with a limited supply growth of only 1.5% annually [17]. - Historical data shows that during the high inflation period of the 1970s, gold prices surged by 1,781%, significantly outperforming stocks and bonds, underscoring its unique value during currency depreciation [17]. Group 6: Divergence in Investment Frameworks - The article concludes that Buffett's critique of gold stems from an industrial-era investment framework, while gold's current valuation is rooted in monetary economics, especially in a post-Bretton Woods context where trust in credit systems is eroding [17]. - Gold's core value has evolved from a commodity to a stabilizer of the monetary system, necessitating a reevaluation of its strategic importance in modern financial ecosystems [17].

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： KYXI 来源：雪球 巴菲特1998年曾有一段非常知名的表述 ， 他说 ： " 黄金从非洲和其他地方的地底下挖出来 。 之后人们将 其熔化成型 、 打孔 ， 然后又放到地底下的金库里 ， 还要花钱找人在金库四周保护 。 黄金没有任何用途 。 要是金星人看到地球人这么看重黄金 ， 想破头也想不明白 " 。 " 你可以把所有开采出来的黄金放在一起 ， 它们可以填满一个长宽高都为67英尺的立方空间 。 按照当前 的黄金价格计算 （ 当时黄金已到每盎司1350美元上方 ） ， 和这些黄金价值相当的钱可以让你买下全部美 国耕地 ， 不是部分 ， 而是全部 。 此外 ， 你可以买下10家埃克森美孚 。 然后你还有1万亿美元的闲钱 。 或者 ， 你可以拥有一个巨大的金属立方体 。 你会选择哪种做法 ？ 哪种做法能产生更多价值 ？ " 此后的多次股东大会上 ， 他也曾明确表达过 远离黄金 的建议 。 因为在他看来 ， 黄金没有生产能力 ， 不能用已有的黄金生出更多的黄金 ； 黄金的实际用途不多 ， 只在工业和珠宝饰品领 ...

业内人士分析称，近期，国际金价的强劲上涨与多个因素密切相关，其中包括全球经济的不确定性和央行的黄 金采购需求等。此外，多个其他大类资产的波动，也加强了黄金作为风险对冲工具的需求。长期来看，黄金的 需求端仍将受到全球央行购金趋势的强力支撑，包括黄金ETF在内的产品投资价值不减。 冲高获利后，金价或进入盘整期 兴业研究外汇商品部研究员王之凡、付晓芸分析称，美国计划于2025年4月2日宣布实施两项核心关税政 策："对等关税"和"行业特定关税"，其中钢铁/铝继续维持25%关税，并可能扩大至铜、木材等。本轮黄金上 涨起始于2024年12月末1月初，近期，伴随铜价上涨，黄金也不断创出新高。从时间周期来看，铜和黄金都有 可能在3月下旬至4月初创下阶段性高点后进入一段时间盘整。 中信期货认为，由于特朗普的对等关税比最初担心得更为宽松，全球风险情绪略有上升。美债收益率短线回 升，加之美联储3月议息会议靴子落地后，短期利多催化交易较充分，黄金可能进入震荡整固期。 黄金ETF近一年规模增长超500亿元 券商中国记者注意到，截至3月24日，近一年来，黄金ETF的合计规模增长超500亿元。其中，多只黄金ETF的 规模增长突破百亿元，华 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in gold prices, attributing it to changes in supply and demand dynamics, particularly the declining safety of sovereign debt and increasing global demand for safe-haven assets [3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Increase - The decline in the safety of sovereign debt, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds, has raised concerns about credit risk, leading to a global shortage of safe assets [3]. - The global demand for gold is expected to reach a record high of 4,974 tons in 2024, surpassing the previous year's demand of 4,899 tons, driven by increased purchases from central banks and geopolitical uncertainties [3][4]. - The geopolitical landscape, including the prolonged Ukraine crisis and tensions in the Middle East, has heightened risk aversion, further boosting the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchases and Market Dynamics - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with 1,082 tons bought in 2022 and 1,037 tons in 2023, indicating a strong long-term demand support for gold prices [11]. - The restructuring of the global monetary system, driven by factors such as the deterioration of U.S. fiscal and trade deficits, has diminished confidence in the dollar, making gold an attractive alternative [13]. - The article highlights that the relationship between the dollar and gold typically behaves like a seesaw, where a weaker dollar tends to drive gold prices higher [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors can diversify their portfolios by including gold, which serves as an effective hedge against systemic risks [10]. - Various investment methods in gold are available, including physical gold, paper gold, gold stocks, gold futures, and gold funds, with a recommended allocation of 10% to 15% of the investment portfolio in gold for optimal diversification [14]. - Multi-asset allocation strategies, such as those employed by FOF products, can provide a balanced approach to investing in gold while mitigating the volatility associated with single-asset concentration [15].