Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the monetary supply statistics in Azerbaijan as of August 1, showing various metrics of money supply and their growth rates compared to the beginning of the year and year-on-year changes [1] Monetary Supply Overview - The broad money supply (M3) in Azerbaijan is 47.68 billion manats (28.05 billion USD), reflecting a growth of 2.6% since the beginning of the year and a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [1] - The money supply (M2) stands at 36.66 billion manats (21.56 billion USD), with a slight increase of 0.3% from the start of the year and a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [1] - The demand deposits (M1) amount to 29.21 billion manats (17.18 billion USD), showing a decrease of 2.1% since the beginning of the year but a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [1] - The cash supply outside banks (M0) is recorded at 16.66 billion manats (9.8 billion USD), which has grown by 5% since the start of the year and by 4.8% year-on-year [1]

Group 1 - The total deposits of recognized institutions in Hong Kong increased by 1.3% in September 2025, with Hong Kong dollar deposits and foreign currency deposits rising by 1.4% and 1.3% respectively [1] - From the beginning of the year to the end of September, total deposits and Hong Kong dollar deposits increased by 10.2% and 4.1% respectively [1] - The total amount of Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong rose by 3.5% in September, reaching 1,001.8 billion Renminbi by the end of September [1] Group 2 - The total amount of loans and advances increased by 0.7% in September, with a year-to-date increase of 1.6% [1] - Loans used in Hong Kong (including trade financing) and loans used outside Hong Kong rose by 0.6% and 0.7% respectively in September [1] - The loan-to-deposit ratio for Hong Kong dollars decreased from 74.6% at the end of August to 73.6% at the end of September due to the increase in Hong Kong dollar deposits without a significant change in loans [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong dollar money supply M2 and M3 both increased by 1.4% in September, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [2] - Seasonally adjusted Hong Kong dollar money supply M1 decreased by 1.4% in September, but increased by 11.5% compared to the same month last year, reflecting investment-related activities [2] - The total money supply M2 and M3 both rose by 1.3% in September, with M2 and M3 showing a year-on-year increase of 11.1% [2]

Group 1: Monetary Supply - In September, the Hong Kong dollar money supply M2 and M3 both increased by 1.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [1] - The seasonally adjusted M1 money supply decreased by 1.4% in September, but showed an 11.5% increase compared to the same month last year, reflecting investment-related activities [1] - The total money supply M2 and M3 rose by 1.3% in September, with both M2 and M3 showing an 11.1% year-on-year increase [1] Group 2: Deposits - The total deposits of recognized institutions increased by 1.3% in September 2025, with Hong Kong dollar deposits and foreign currency deposits rising by 1.4% and 1.3% respectively [1] - From the beginning of the year to the end of September, total deposits and Hong Kong dollar deposits increased by 10.2% and 4.1% respectively [1] - Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong rose by 3.5% in September, reaching 1,001.8 billion yuan by the end of September [1] Group 3: Loans and Advances - The total amount of loans and advances increased by 0.7% in September, with a year-to-date increase of 1.6% [2] - Loans used in Hong Kong (including trade financing) and loans used outside Hong Kong rose by 0.6% and 0.7% respectively in September [2] - The loan-to-deposit ratio for Hong Kong dollars decreased from 74.6% at the end of August to 73.6% at the end of September due to the increase in Hong Kong dollar deposits without significant changes in loans [2]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September, the new social financing (社融) amounted to 3.5 trillion RMB, with a growth rate of 8.7%, slightly down from the previous value of 8.8%[3] - New RMB loans totaled 1.29 trillion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 6.6%, down from 6.8% previously[3] - M2 growth rate was 8.4%, a decrease from 8.8% in the prior month, while M1 growth rate increased to 7.2% from 6%[3] Group 2: Structural Insights - The decline in social financing was primarily influenced by credit and government bonds, with "non-standard" financing and direct corporate financing contributing positively[3] - New corporate loans were approximately 1.6 trillion RMB, down by about 3.7 billion RMB year-on-year, while government bonds decreased by 3.5 billion RMB[3] - The increase in "non-standard" financing was about 3.6 billion RMB, up by approximately 1.87 billion RMB year-on-year[3] Group 3: Deposit and Monetary Supply Trends - New RMB deposits reached 2.2 trillion RMB, down by 1.53 trillion RMB year-on-year, with household deposits increasing by 760 billion RMB[3] - The broad money supply (M2) growth rate declined by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a continued trend of capital activation[3] - The M1-M2 spread continues to widen, suggesting ongoing liquidity in the market[3] Group 4: Market Outlook and Risks - The current trend indicates a shift towards a favorable environment for interest rate declines, supported by a loose monetary policy from the central bank[3] - Risks include potential unexpected declines in the overseas economy and macroeconomic policies exceeding expectations[5]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of September 2025, the total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan, marking an 8.7% year-on-year increase [1][2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing was 30.09 trillion yuan, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][4] - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.38 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year growth [1][5] Social Financing Scale - As of September 2025, the social financing scale stock was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [2] - The breakdown of financing includes: - RMB loans to the real economy at 267.03 trillion yuan, up 6.4% - Foreign currency loans equivalent to 1.18 trillion yuan, down 18% - Trust loans at 4.5 trillion yuan, up 5.7% - Government bonds at 92.55 trillion yuan, up 20.2% [2][3] Financing Structure - By the end of September, RMB loans accounted for 61.1% of the total social financing scale, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Government bonds saw an increase in their share to 21.2%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] Cumulative Increase in Social Financing - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first three quarters was 30.09 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in government bond financing by 4.28 trillion yuan [4] - RMB loans to the real economy increased by 14.54 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 8.51 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [4] Money Supply - The broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan, with an 8.4% year-on-year increase [5] - Narrow money (M1) was at 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, while cash in circulation (M0) was 13.58 trillion yuan, reflecting an 11.5% increase [5] Deposit and Loan Growth - By the end of September, total deposits (including foreign currency) were 332.18 trillion yuan, with RMB deposits at 324.94 trillion yuan, both showing year-on-year growth [6] - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 1.1 trillion yuan [8] Foreign Currency Deposits - Foreign currency deposits reached 1.02 trillion USD, marking a 20% year-on-year increase, with an addition of 165.8 billion USD in the first three quarters [7] Interbank Market Rates - The average weighted interest rate for interbank RMB market lending was 1.45% in September, slightly higher than the previous month but lower than the same period last year [10] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of September, the national foreign exchange reserves stood at 3.34 trillion USD, with the RMB exchange rate at 7.1055 per USD [11] Cross-Border RMB Settlement - In the first three quarters, cross-border RMB settlement under current accounts amounted to 13.06 trillion yuan, with direct investment settlements at 6.04 trillion yuan [12]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported significant growth in credit and social financing in the first three quarters, indicating strong financial support for the real economy, with a notable shift towards direct financing channels [1][2][4]. Group 1: Credit and Social Financing - In the first three quarters, new RMB loans increased by approximately 14.75 trillion yuan, with a monthly increase of about 1.29 trillion yuan in September [4]. - The total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan by the end of September, growing by 8.7% year-on-year, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous year [2]. - Direct financing has become a significant contributor to social financing, with government bonds net financing reaching about 11.46 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [2][3]. Group 2: Monetary Supply and Loan Structure - By the end of September, M2 grew by 8.4% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 7.2%, indicating a recovery in corporate and consumer demand [3]. - The M1-M2 spread narrowed to 1.2%, reflecting improved business activity and a rebound in personal consumption [3]. - The proportion of RMB loans in the total social financing increment fell to 48.3%, with over half of the new social financing coming from diverse channels such as government and corporate bonds [2]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Key industries like equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintained strong growth, driving corporate financing demand [5]. - The implementation of personal consumption loan subsidies and adjustments in housing purchase policies in major cities have led to a recovery in personal loan demand, particularly in the real estate sector [6][7]. - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans remained low at around 3.1%, which is significantly lower than the previous year [7]. Group 4: Non-Bank Deposits and Market Dynamics - In the first three quarters, RMB deposits increased by 22.71 trillion yuan, with non-bank financial institution deposits growing faster than household deposits [8]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is attributed to a reallocation of assets by residents in response to changing return rates, rather than a direct correlation with stock market fluctuations [8].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported that the social financing scale maintained a high growth rate under the continuous support of fiscal policy, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% as of September 2025 [2] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, increasing by 7.2% [1] - In the first three quarters, the total increase in social financing was 30.09 trillion yuan, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [4] Group 2 - The total amount of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.03 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, while foreign currency loans decreased by 18% [2] - The net financing of government bonds reached 11.46 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [4] - The PBOC's monetary policy committee emphasized the need for effective monetary policy implementation to match the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [4] Group 3 - Future monetary policy tools may include reverse repos and MLF operations to enhance liquidity in the short to medium term [5] - The fourth quarter is expected to see a push for growth policies, with potential measures like reserve requirement ratio cuts to inject long-term liquidity into the banking system [6] - Financial institutions are encouraged to increase credit support for major strategic areas and weak links in the economy [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the four-year cryptocurrency cycle is considered dead by Arthur Hayes, but not for the reasons most people think [2] - Hayes argues that Bitcoin price cycles are driven by money supply and quantity, primarily influenced by the US dollar and Chinese yuan, rather than arbitrary four-year patterns or institutional interest [2] - Historical cycles ended due to tightening monetary conditions rather than time factors, indicating a shift in the current cycle's dynamics [2][4] Group 2 - The current cycle is different due to the US Treasury injecting $2.5 trillion into the market through increased bond issuance and a push for looser monetary policy to stimulate growth [2] - The Federal Reserve has resumed interest rate cuts despite high inflation, with a 94% probability of a cut in October and 80% in December [3] - Previous Bitcoin bull markets were closely tied to quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and credit expansion in China, with downturns occurring when these conditions tightened [4][5] Group 3 - Hayes notes that while China may not drive this cycle as in the past, policymakers are shifting towards ending deflation rather than withdrawing liquidity, which could support Bitcoin's rise [6] - The transition from deflationary resistance to at least neutral or mildly supportive monetary policy removes major obstacles that could stifle the cycle, allowing US monetary expansion to boost Bitcoin prices [6] - On-chain analysis from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin's price movements still reflect previous cyclical patterns, suggesting some continuity in market behavior [8]

Group 1 - The total money supply in Hong Kong, measured by M2 and M3, decreased by 1.9% in August, but increased by 4.0% compared to the same month last year [1] - The seasonally adjusted M1 money supply fell by 2.9% in August, while it rose by 16.1% year-on-year, reflecting investment-related activities [1] - Total deposits in recognized institutions increased by 0.9% in August, with Hong Kong dollar deposits declining by 2.1% and foreign currency deposits rising by 3.3%, indicating corporate fund flows [1] Group 2 - The total amount of loans and advances decreased by 0.4% in August, but increased by 1.0% year-to-date as of the end of August [2] - Loans used in Hong Kong and those used outside of Hong Kong fell by 0.1% and 1.3% respectively in August [2] - The loan-to-deposit ratio for Hong Kong dollars increased from 73.1% at the end of July to 74.6% at the end of August due to a larger decline in Hong Kong dollar deposits compared to loans [2]

Group 1: Credit and Financing Trends - In August, the growth rate of RMB loans decreased to 6.8% from the previous 6.9%[1] - The stock of social financing grew by 8.8% year-on-year, down from 9.0% previously, ending an upward trend[1] - Government bonds contributed approximately 1.30 percentage points to the increase in social financing, while RMB loans had a negative contribution of about -0.32 percentage points[1] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Market Impact - M1 growth rose to 6.0%, while M2 remained stable at 8.8%, narrowing the gap between M1 and M2 growth rates to -2.8%[2] - Household deposits continued to shift towards non-bank financial institutions, with household deposit growth declining[2] - The impact of monetary flow on capital markets is influenced by various factors, including employment expectations and asset price forecasts[3] Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - The potential risk of changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations could impact the market[4] - The effectiveness and timing of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets will be crucial for future loan growth[3]