Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to address domestic demand insufficiency and low price levels while promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price levels [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - China's economy is showing steady progress, with improved social confidence and new achievements in high-quality development, but still faces challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [2]. - The market has high expectations for policy strength amid ongoing downward pressure on the economy [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Strategy - The PBOC plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, enhance counter-cyclical adjustments, and better utilize both total and structural monetary policy tools [2]. - The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2][4]. Group 3: Policy Implementation - The PBOC suggests that monetary policy adjustments should be flexible based on domestic and international economic conditions, without setting specific policy windows [4]. - There is a focus on strengthening the guidance of central bank policy rates and improving the market-based interest rate transmission mechanism [4]. Group 4: Support for Specific Sectors - The PBOC is committed to supporting the development of the private economy and enhancing financing for small and micro enterprises, addressing financing bottlenecks [5]. - Efforts will be made to implement existing financial policies effectively, boost the vitality of existing real estate and land, and stabilize the real estate market [5].

会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，认为当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，世界经济增长动能减弱，贸易壁垒 增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济运行稳中有 进，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价低位运行等困难和挑 战。要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加强逆周期调节，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功 能，加大货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国 内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，抓好各项货币政策措施执行， 充分释放政策效应。保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，使社会融资规模、货币供 应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导 机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。推动社会综合融资成本下降。从宏 观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化。畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使 用效率，防范资金空转。增强外汇市场韧性，稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for proactive and targeted monetary policy adjustments to align with domestic and international economic conditions, aiming to enhance the effectiveness of policy measures [1] Monetary Policy Strategy - The meeting discussed strengthening monetary policy regulation and improving its foresight, targeting, and effectiveness based on economic and financial market conditions [1] - It is suggested to maintain ample liquidity and encourage financial institutions to increase credit supply, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [1] Interest Rate Management - The central bank aims to reinforce the guidance of policy interest rates and improve the transmission mechanism of market-based interest rates, enhancing the self-discipline of market interest rate pricing [1] - There is a focus on executing and supervising interest rate policies to promote a decrease in the overall financing costs for society [1] Debt Market Monitoring - From a macro-prudential perspective, the meeting highlighted the importance of observing and assessing the debt market's performance, particularly the changes in long-term yields [1] Currency Stability - The central bank intends to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilize market expectations, and prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, maintaining the RMB's stability at a reasonable and balanced level [1]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that "care" in monetary policy does not necessarily equate to interest rate cuts, and interest rate cuts do not always lead to increased debt issuance [5][17] - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repo to a "multiple price bidding" format is seen as a continuation of previous monetary policy strategies, with limited incremental information being conveyed [6][10] - The central bank's recent actions indicate a strong continuity in monetary policy, with the 14-day reverse repo being used primarily as a tool to manage liquidity around holidays rather than signaling a shift towards looser monetary policy [5][10][17] Group 2 - The 14-day reverse repo is expected to have limited actual impact on the bond market, serving mainly as a tool for addressing liquidity needs during specific periods such as holidays [10][14] - The report notes that the actual weighted bidding rate for the 14-day reverse repo is likely to decline, but its influence on the central funding rates and the bond market remains limited due to its non-mainstream status [14][16] - The central bank's liquidity management strategy has been focused on maintaining a balance between inflows and outflows, with the aim of stabilizing funding fluctuations [9][16] Group 3 - Despite the central bank's current supportive stance on interbank liquidity, it does not imply a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [17][19] - The report suggests that unless there are significant market fluctuations or rapid currency appreciation, the likelihood of further interest rate cuts within the year remains low [17][19] - The logic behind government bond trading is similar, with a low necessity to restart government bond purchases unless there is a significant downturn in the bond market [18][19]

■苏向杲 央行买断式逆回购操作采用"利率招标、多重价位中标"的市场化方式，其操作利率通常低于同期限中期 借贷便利(MLF)利率。这有助于直接缓解商业银行在息差收窄背景下的负债成本压力。银行负债成本下 降为贷款端利率下行提供了空间，使货币政策利率能够更顺畅传导至实体经济，最终降低企业综合融资 成本。 近日，中国人民银行(以下简称"央行")开展10000亿元买断式逆回购操作，引发市场广泛关注。央行买 断式逆回购操作能够直接影响当下的流动性，进而影响金融市场走势以及实体经济融资成本。市场各方 也通过观察央行买断式逆回购操作的规模和频次，判断货币政策动向和流动性趋势。 此外，与央行传统的7天、14天质押式逆回购相比，买断式逆回购期限更长(3个月、6个月)，填补了短 期工具与MLF之间的"期限空白"。这意味着商业银行可获得稳定、可预期的中期资金支持，便于其进行 中长期信贷规划，减少因短期资金波动导致的信贷投放谨慎情绪。 近期，我国股票市场持续回暖，债券市场波动加剧。与此同时，实体经济正加速转型。在这一背景下， 金融市场和实体经济均对资金流动性状况格外关注。央行也及时"回应"市场流动性需求，频频开展买断 式逆回购操作。据 ...

Group 1 - The new corporate loan interest rate in July is approximately 3.2%, and the new personal housing loan interest rate is about 3.1%, reflecting a decrease of around 45 basis points and 30 basis points compared to the same period last year, indicating a low interest rate environment [1] - The current low interest rates signal a relatively abundant credit supply, making it easier and more cost-effective for borrowers to obtain bank credit, supported by multiple interest rate cuts since 2018 [1] - The central bank has expressed its commitment to maintaining economic stability through monetary policy, having lowered the policy rate to a historic low of 1.4% while also reducing the rates of all structural monetary policy tools [1] Group 2 - Many small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises have reported that loan interest rates have halved from previous highs of around 6.5%, significantly impacting their profitability [2] - The decline in financing costs is expected to boost market expectations and expand demand, as evidenced by a technology company that applied for a loan to upgrade its production line after receiving a 20 basis point interest rate discount [2] - A recent World Bank survey indicates that China's financial service efficiency ranks among the best globally, with only 7.7% of surveyed enterprises finding loan rates high or procedures complex, comparable to New Zealand's 5.5% [2] Group 3 - Many regions are implementing trials for "explicit comprehensive financing costs for corporate loans," enhancing transparency in financing costs and reducing the burden on enterprises [3] - Previously, loan agreements often included hidden fees, but now all costs are clearly outlined, allowing businesses to understand the total financing costs upfront [3]

Group 1 - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized support for financing in key areas and weak links, establishing two special relending programs for technological innovation and inclusive elderly care, with the People's Bank of China providing 60% and 100% relending support for the principal loans respectively [1][4] - Relending is defined as loans from the central bank to financial institutions, with a focus on guiding loan funds to better serve key areas and weak links in the economy [1][3] - The need for technological innovation is highlighted as crucial for achieving high-quality economic development, addressing challenges such as the lack of mastery over core technologies [1][2] Group 2 - Population aging is identified as a significant issue, with over 260 million people aged 60 and above, necessitating financial support for elderly care services [2] - The overall profitability of the elderly care service sector is currently low, indicating a need for policy support to encourage financial institutions to invest in this area [2] - Both technological innovation and elderly care require substantial financial support, particularly in terms of financing, with a call for effective policies to guide financial institutions in these sectors [2][4] Group 3 - The role of relending in China has evolved from primarily injecting base currency to facilitating structural adjustments, effectively guiding credit funds to specific sectors [3] - The model of relending involves financial institutions issuing loans first and then applying for funds from the People's Bank of China, ensuring precise allocation of funds to the real economy [3] - The establishment of special relending programs for technological innovation and elderly care is expected to lower financing costs in these sectors, promoting their development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes that maintaining economic stability will be crucial for stabilizing the exchange rate, with macroeconomic policies focusing on growth as the primary factor for exchange rate stability [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Policy - The PBOC aims to keep the RMB exchange rate flexible and stable, reinforcing expectations and preventing excessive fluctuations [1]. - The current economic fundamentals in China are improving, providing a solid foundation for the RMB's stability despite uncertainties in the USD's performance [1][2]. - The PBOC's stance is clear: it will not seek to devalue the RMB for competitive advantages, maintaining the market's decisive role in exchange rate formation [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy for the second half of the year will focus on stabilizing growth through increased fiscal support, monetary easing, and efforts to stabilize the real estate market [1]. - This approach is expected to mitigate external volatility's impact on the domestic economy and provide crucial support for the RMB exchange rate [1]. Group 3: Cross-Border Capital Flow Management - Experts suggest that China should enhance macro-prudential management of cross-border capital flows and guide expectations to manage the complexities of international capital movements [3]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy in major economies may lead to increased capital inflows into China, supporting its capital markets [3]. - There is a need for close monitoring of cross-border capital flows to balance higher levels of foreign exchange openness with the support of the real economy and the prevention of external shocks [3].

Group 1 - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy, focusing on legal governance of low-price competition and enhancing market systems [1][2] - The People's Bank of China proposed to strengthen monetary policy adjustments, maintain liquidity, and support financial institutions in increasing credit supply to stabilize economic growth [4][5] - The State Council issued a plan to improve the credit repair system, aiming to create a better social credit environment and facilitate the normal operation of restructured enterprises [6][7] Group 2 - The State Council highlighted the importance of accelerating technological breakthroughs and integrating technological innovation with industrial innovation to enhance competitiveness [8][9] - The National People's Congress Finance and Economic Committee reviewed the 2024 central budget, identifying issues in budget management and suggesting reforms to enhance fiscal policy effectiveness [11][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the overall capital gap pressure may be seasonally large, with a liquidity gap of around 2.4 trillion yuan. The fiscal disturbances are likely to be concentrated in the second half of the month. After a slight easing at the beginning of July, the funds will converge upwards, and the room for further easing is limited [1][2][67]. - In June, the central bank actively supported the cross - quarter period. The overnight funds were generally stable, while the volatility range of 7D funds increased slightly. The over - reserve level may have recovered to a seasonally high level. The second - quarter monetary policy meeting did not mention "reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts" and emphasized "preventing capital idling" and "monitoring long - term yields", indicating limited room for significant capital easing in the future [3][6][46]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 6 - Month Review of Capital and Liquidity: Active Support at Quarter - End, Brief Tightening of Capital Prices 3.1.1 Capital Review: Slightly Enlarged Fluctuation Range of 7D at Quarter - End - In June 2025, the central bank actively supported the cross - quarter period. Overnight funds were generally stable, and the 7D funds showed a larger fluctuation range. The 7D weighted price fluctuated more widely compared to the previous month, and the spread between 7D and overnight funds widened at the quarter - end without inversion [6]. - In the early part of June, the upfront operation of 3M term repurchase agreements (1 trillion yuan) made the capital expectation turn looser. In the middle, the 6M repurchase agreement (4000 billion yuan) offset the tax - period disturbances. In the late part, despite the central bank's support, the capital price tightened due to slow institutional cross - quarter operations and high bond market leverage [7]. - The capital stratification pressure in June was not significant, with the spreads at seasonally low levels. The volatility of overnight funds remained low, and the 7D funds were also at a seasonally low level. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased slightly, and the net lending of state - owned banks recovered, while that of money market funds declined [13][18][19]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review: Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut Implemented, Bank Liquidity Level Increased - In terms of liquidity volume, the end - of - month over - reserve may have increased by 7061 billion yuan, and the over - reserve ratio was around 1.57%, at a seasonally high level. However, the narrow over - reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases was still relatively low at around 0.8% [31]. - In open - market operations, the central bank actively increased the reverse - repurchase investment in June, with a net investment of 5359 billion yuan. The MLF investment was 3000 billion yuan, and the net investment of the repurchase agreement was 2000 billion yuan. There was no treasury - deposit operation, and 1000 billion yuan of treasury deposits matured [34][40][42]. 3.2 6 - Month Monetary Policy Tracking: Lujiazui Forum Focused on Global Governance, Monetary Policy Meeting Concerned about Long - Term Interest Rates - In June 2025, the Lujiazui Forum focused on non - bank leverage, and the end - of - month meeting still concerned about capital idling and long - term interest rates. The upfront operation of the 3M repurchase agreement in June signaled the central bank's support for the capital market. The Lujiazui Forum discussed non - bank institution leverage and supervision [46][47]. - The second - quarter monetary policy meeting suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation, emphasizing long - term interest rate risks and preventing capital idling. The large - scale purchase of short - term treasury bonds by large banks and relevant media reports triggered market attention to the central bank's bond - buying operations [49][50]. 3.3 July Gap Prediction: Fiscal Disturbances May Concentrate in the Second Half of the Month 3.3.1 Rigid Gap: Slight Release of Reserves, Large - Scale Repurchase Agreement Maturity - In July, as it is the beginning of the quarter, the reserve release may supplement liquidity by around 1388 billion yuan. The MLF maturity is 3000 billion yuan, and the total maturity of the repurchase agreement is 1.2 trillion yuan (7000 billion yuan for 3M and 5000 billion yuan for 6M) [1][55]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks: Limited Impact of Cash Withdrawal and Non - Financial Institution Deposits on Over - Reserves - In July, cash withdrawal may slightly consume over - reserves by 705 billion yuan, while non - financial institution deposits may slightly supplement over - reserves by 215 billion yuan [1][59]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors: Large - Scale Government Bond Issuance, Fiscal Expenditure Concentrated at Quarter - End - The government bonds' net financing scale in July 2025 may rise to around 1.6 trillion yuan, and the government deposits may freeze around 9000 billion yuan of liquidity, putting pressure on the capital market [60]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment: Pay Attention to the Impact of Large - Scale Payments - The overall capital gap in July is estimated to be around 2.4 trillion yuan. After a slight easing at the beginning of July, the funds will converge upwards, and the room for further easing is limited. The capital disturbance in the middle of the month, especially due to tax payments and government bond payments, deserves attention [1][2][67].