华源证券指出，中期来看，"降息交易"将为黄金价格上涨提供较强动能，预计美国货币政策变化将接力 财政政策为金价提供支撑。长期来看，"降息交易"+"特朗普2.0"双主线将在2025年持续催化，保护主义 和大国博弈背景下，央行增储将对金价形成强有力底部支撑。2024年全球黄金需求创历史新高，2025年 央行将继续引领黄金需求，为金价提供重要支柱。中国央行已连续12个月增持黄金，10月末黄金储备达 7409万盎司。美国就业市场与经济运行仍具韧性，美联储降息周期或被拉长，但政策空间较大，增加了 黄金的做多窗口期。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（51 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The precious metals sector, particularly gold and silver, has seen a continuous price increase over the past two weeks, with London spot gold rising by 2.95% to $4,191.05 per ounce and London spot silver increasing by 3.65% to $53.91 per ounce [2][3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold price increased slightly by 0.08% to 953.92 yuan per gram, while the SHFE silver price rose by 3.04% to 12,727 yuan per kilogram [2][3] - The trading volume for SHFE gold decreased by 2.26% to 339,700 lots, whereas the trading volume for SHFE silver increased by 2.89% to 785,000 lots [2][3] Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to several factors, including support for interest rate cuts from multiple Federal Reserve officials, which is expected to influence monetary policy decisions in the coming months [3][4] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, is also contributing to market volatility and may impact precious metals prices [4] - The anticipated changes in U.S. monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts, are expected to provide strong momentum for gold prices in the second half of the year [4][5] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The combination of interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions is projected to sustain upward pressure on gold prices through 2025, with central bank gold purchases expected to provide a strong support base [5] - According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand is forecasted to reach a record high of 4,974 tons in 2024, driven by strong purchases from central banks and increased investment demand [5] - China's central bank has consistently increased its gold reserves, with a reported increase to 74.09 million ounces by the end of October, further indicating a bullish outlook for gold [5]

Market Overview - A-shares collectively rose on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.34% to 3,888 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.85%[14] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.34% and 0.38%, respectively, indicating a mixed performance in the Hong Kong market[9] - European markets closed higher, with the Stoxx 600 index rising by 0.25%[8] Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 49.2, a slight increase of 0.2 from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, down 0.6[5] - The manufacturing PMI is 1.2 points lower than the five-year average, indicating weaker manufacturing conditions compared to October[5] Commodity and Forex Market - International oil prices saw a slight decline, with NY crude oil down 0.17% to $58.55 per barrel, while gold prices rose by 1.25% to $4,254.9 per ounce[26] - The USD/CNY exchange rate appreciated slightly, closing at 7.074, with expectations for the yuan to strengthen to 6.8 in the coming year due to narrowing interest rate differentials and increased corporate settlements[26] Stock Performance - In the U.S. market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 47,716.4, up 0.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively[7] - The S&P Mexico IPC index increased by 1.44% to 63,596.8, with healthcare leading the sectors with a 2.96% rise[8] Sector Analysis - In the A-share market, the computing power sector continued to perform well, with stocks like Nanjing Light and New Energy rising by 20%[15] - The insurance and coal sectors faced declines, contributing to a mixed performance across various sectors[9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the precious metals sector, focusing on gold and silver, as well as other base metals like copper and aluminum, and the energy metals sector, particularly lithium and nickel. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals Market - In the early stages of interest rate cuts, gold dominates the market while silver follows. As inflation expectations rise in the later stages, silver begins to catch up with gold, indicating a transition into the second phase of the rate cut trade, which is supported by improving economic expectations [1][2][3]. - The expectation of a weaker dollar is anticipated to trigger a second wave of bullish trends in the non-ferrous metals market, with silver expected to outperform and gradually influence copper and aluminum prices [1][3]. - Silver stocks are expected to perform strongly, similar to gold stocks in the previous year, due to a resonance between valuation and earnings [4]. Specific Company Recommendations - Key silver industry stocks in the A-share market include: - **Shengda Resources**: Approximately 50% gross profit margin, significant performance inflection expected in the next 3-4 quarters [5][6]. - **Xingye Mining**: Holds 40% of China's silver reserves, the second-largest resource endowment globally [5][6]. - **Shan Jin International**: Notable for its gold-silver resonance characteristics, expected to have significant valuation differences in a growing market [5][6]. Gold Market Insights - Gold prices are expected to stabilize around $4,000, with significant valuation recovery potential for gold stocks, which have returned to early-year levels (approximately 15x PE for current and 10x PE for long-term) [7][8]. - Recommended gold stocks include **Zhongjin Gold**, **Shan Jin International**, **Chifeng Jilong Gold**, **Shandong Gold**, and **Zhaojin Mining** [8]. Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices recently broke through $11,000, driven by supply disruptions and negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas mines, with a potential 10% production cut expected [9]. - The copper market is anticipated to remain tight, supporting higher prices, with current valuations around 12x, which is considered low compared to historical averages [9]. Aluminum Market Outlook - Aluminum is viewed as the most cost-effective metal, with prices expected to recover significantly from previous crisis levels. Current prices are projected to be in the $24,000-$25,000 range [10][11]. - Companies to watch in the aluminum sector include **Yun Aluminum**, **Shenhuo**, and **China Hongqiao** [11]. Energy Metals Sector - The lithium carbonate industry is optimistic, with expectations for price increases in 2026 compared to 2025, despite short-term supply disruptions [12][13]. - Recommended companies in the energy metals sector include **Tianhua New Energy**, **Dadong Mining**, and **Huaou Cobalt** for high elasticity, and **China Molybdenum** for stability [13][14]. Nickel Market Insights - Nickel prices are at historical lows, but there is potential for recovery due to improving demand from electric vehicles and overseas markets [13][14]. - **Huayou Cobalt** is highlighted for its potential to double nickel production in the next two to three years, with significant profit growth expected [14][15]. Additional Important Points - The overall sentiment in the precious metals and base metals markets is bullish, driven by macroeconomic factors such as interest rate cuts and inflation expectations, which are expected to create favorable conditions for investment in these sectors [1][2][3][4][9].

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Positive (Maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector, particularly gold and silver, has seen continuous price increases, with London spot gold rising by 2.95% to $4,191.05 per ounce and London spot silver increasing by 3.65% to $53.91 per ounce [5][10] - The recent price increases are attributed to several factors, including support for interest rate cuts from multiple Federal Reserve officials, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and potential military actions involving the U.S. and Venezuela [5][6] - The long-term outlook suggests that the combination of "interest rate cuts" and "Trump 2.0" will continue to catalyze demand for gold, with central bank purchases providing strong support for gold prices [5][6] Price Trends - In the past two weeks, London spot gold increased by 2.95% to $4,191.05 per ounce, while Shanghai gold rose by 0.08% to ¥953.92 per gram [10][14] - London spot silver rose by 3.65% to $53.91 per ounce, and Shanghai silver increased by 3.04% to ¥12,727 per kilogram [10][14] - Palladium and platinum also saw significant increases, with palladium up 4.55% to $1,448 per ounce and platinum up 7.05% to $1,640 per ounce [10][14] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report highlights the importance of upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP employment figures, which could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions [5][6] - The report notes that the U.S. labor market remains resilient, which may extend the current interest rate cut cycle [5][6] Holdings and Trading Volume - The report indicates a decrease in Shanghai gold holdings by 2.26% to 339,700 contracts, while Shanghai silver holdings increased by 2.89% to 785,000 contracts [10][14] Price Differentials and Basis - The report states that the gold price differential between domestic and international markets is -¥14.80 per gram, a decrease of ¥37.95 from two weeks ago [59] - The international gold basis (spot-futures) is reported at -$65.35 per ounce, down $52.05 from two weeks prior [65]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to strong performances in gold, silver, and non-ferrous metal futures, while U.S. stock indices have shown five consecutive days of gains [1][8] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is reported at 86.4%, with a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points by January having a probability of 67.1% [8][9] - Market participants are focusing on two main themes: interest rate cut trades and humanoid robots, both of which are expected to have catalysts in 2026 [9] Group 2 - The 79th edition of the simulated stock trading competition will run from December 1 to December 12, with registration open from November 29 to December 12, offering cash rewards for positive returns [6][10] - Participants in the competition will receive benefits such as access to top performers' holdings and a free trial of the "Fire Line Quick Review" service for six trading days [11] - The competition aims to help participants improve their trading success rates amid a volatile market environment, with strategies suggested for cautious investors to prepare for potential market movements following the Federal Reserve's announcements [9][10]

策 略 研 究 策 3、 市场情绪走弱或难在短期扭转，建议控制仓位等待布局机会。 4、 财政发力或是未来支撑美国经济的主要手段。 5、泛能源的配置更多是应对美国 AI 投资预期过热，建议以中短 期交易为主。 6、 长期看好保险，反内卷行业，中概互联网，军贸。 2025 年 11 月 24 日 防御当先，静候良机——周观点 团队成员 投资要点： 近期观点 略 定 期 报 告 1、 强非农和联储放鸽的组合不合逻辑，交易降息致使美国下跌 或是未来一个季度的常态。 2、 科技革命进程或难免"泡沫破灭"时刻，重点是关注科技对 于需求是否构成正向作用。 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、尝试寻找新合力——2025.11.17 2、美国政府最长停摆结束——2025.11.17 3、市场状态高频数据库——11 月第 2 周—— 2025.11.16 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 证 券 研 究 报 告 华福证券 诚信专业发现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a rebound followed by a decline, with gold and silver prices showing fluctuations while palladium and platinum have decreased in value [1][2]. Precious Metals Market Summary - Gold prices in London rose by 1.49% to $4,071.10 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold increased by 3.39% to ¥953.20 per gram, with SHFE gold holdings up by 0.39% to 347,600 contracts [1][2]. - Silver prices in London increased by 6.23% to $52.01 per ounce, and SHFE silver rose by 7.95% to ¥12,351 per kilogram, with SHFE silver holdings up by 9.89% to 763,000 contracts [1][2]. - Palladium prices in London fell by 5.46% to $1,385 per ounce, and platinum prices decreased by 3.59% to $1,532 per ounce [1][2]. Economic Factors Influencing Precious Metals - The end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has led to the anticipation of key economic data releases, including GDP revisions and employment reports, which may impact market sentiment [3]. - Hawkish statements from several Federal Reserve officials have dampened expectations for interest rate cuts in December, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid persistent inflation concerns [4]. - The Trump administration's plans to expand food tariff exemptions and reach trade agreements with countries like Switzerland may influence economic conditions and commodity prices [4]. Long-term Outlook for Gold - The "Trump 2.0" agenda, focusing on tariffs and tax cuts, is expected to stabilize, while the potential for interest rate cuts may provide strong support for gold prices in the latter half of the year [5]. - Key upcoming events include the release of the non-farm payroll report and GDP revisions, which are critical for assessing economic health and potential impacts on gold prices [5]. - Central bank gold purchases are projected to drive global gold demand to a record high of 4,974 tons in 2024, up 1.5% from 2023, providing a solid foundation for gold prices [5][6]. - China's central bank has consistently increased its gold reserves, with a reported 7,409 million ounces (approximately 2,304.457 tons) as of the end of October, reflecting ongoing demand for gold [6].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a rebound followed by a decline, with gold and silver prices showing fluctuations while palladium and platinum have decreased in value [1][2]. Precious Metals Market Summary - In the past two weeks, London spot gold increased by 1.49% to $4,071.10 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold rose by 3.39% to ¥953.20 per gram, with SHFE gold holdings up by 0.39% to 347,600 contracts [1]. - London spot silver saw a rise of 6.23% to $52.01 per ounce, and SHFE silver increased by 7.95% to ¥12,351 per kilogram, with SHFE silver holdings up by 9.89% to 763,000 contracts [1]. - Conversely, London spot palladium fell by 5.46% to $1,385 per ounce, and platinum decreased by 3.59% to $1,532 per ounce [1]. Economic Factors Influencing Precious Metals - The recent rebound in gold and silver prices has not surpassed previous highs, primarily due to the end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which is expected to lead to the release of key economic data [2]. - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed hawkish views, dampening expectations for a rate cut in December, which may impact precious metals prices [3]. - The Trump administration is pursuing trade agreements to alleviate domestic food price inflation, which could influence economic conditions and, subsequently, precious metals [3]. Future Outlook - In the medium term, the "Trump 2.0" agenda focusing on tariffs and tax cuts may stabilize, while "rate cut trades" are expected to provide strong momentum for gold prices [4]. - Key upcoming events include the release of the non-farm payroll report on November 20, actual wage data on November 21, and the revised GDP figures on November 26 [4]. - Long-term projections suggest that the combination of "rate cut trades" and "Trump 2.0" will continue to support gold prices, with central bank purchases expected to provide a strong foundation for price increases [5]. - Recent data indicates that the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves, further supporting the bullish outlook for gold [5]. Investment Recommendations - The precious metals sector is rated positively, with a focus on specific stocks such as Zijin Mining International, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and others [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued their strong rebound, with silver showing elasticity. The end of the US government shutdown and market expectations of potential Fed rate cuts have led to a short - term shift to rate - cut trading, making commodities generally stronger. However, whether precious metals can regain their upward momentum remains to be confirmed, and international gold and silver are facing resistance at previous high levels [1] 3. Summary by Related Information Government Shutdown - President Trump signed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the longest government shutdown in US history. The bill provides continuous funding for the federal government until January 30, 2026. Multiple federal departments have notified employees to return to work on the 13th, but it's uncertain when furloughed employees will receive back pay and if normal payroll can resume quickly [1][2] Fed Policy - Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire at the end of his term on February 28 next year, and the market expects the new appointee may open up more room for future rate cuts. Four voting regional Fed presidents are not enthusiastic about another rate cut in December. Boston Fed President Collins believes the Fed will likely keep rates at the current level for some time. White House official Hassett hopes the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points but expects a 25 - basis - point cut. The US Supreme Court will hold an oral argument on Trump's request to fire Fed Governor Cook on January 21 next year [1][2]